CCI+ in the WGI contribution to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report
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CCI+ in the WGI contribution to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report
Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre
CMUG Science Lead
Coordinating Lead Author AR6 WGI Atlas;
Coordinating Author Technical Summary;
Lead Author Summary for Policymakers;
AR6 WGI-II Handshake team member.
ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For ESA Official Use Only 1
HISTORY |EVOLUTION OF THE IPCC
GROWING PUBLIC
INCREASING AWARENESS
STAKEHOLDER
INVOLVEMENT
GROWTH IN SCIENTIFIC
RESEARCH ON CLIMATE 2023
CHANGE
UNFCCC
Global
Stocktake
1988 2021-22
2018
IPCC AR6
Jointly established SR15
by WMO and UNEP 1995
2007
SAR
Kyoto AR4 SROCC
Protocol 2°C limit
2001
TAR 2013-14 SRCCL
Adaptation AR5
1990 Paris 2019
Nobel Agreement
FAR Peace
UNFCCC Prize
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
STRUCTURE | GOVERNANCE
Intergovernmental Panel Hundreds of scientists and experts from
195 member States appointing National around the world are involved in the
preparation of IPCC reports
Focal Points
WGI WGII
PLENARY The Physical Science Impacts, Adaptation &
Basis Vulnerability
Authors &
Scientists
BUREAUX
Review
TFI Editors
WGIII Task Force
Mitigation of on National
EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE
Climate Change Greenhouse Gas
Expert
Inventories Reviewers
AR6 WG 1 – The Physical Science Base
• Assesses changes in the physical climate system to establish
the evidence base for policy responses to climate change
• Strongest, most significant IPCC report to date
• Draws from 14,000 scientific publications
• Author team of 234 from more than 60 countries
• 3 rounds of reviews; responses to ~75,000 comments
• New estimates of chances of crossing global warming level of
1.5℃ in coming decades and remaining well below 2℃
• Improved understanding of human influence on all aspects of
the climate and in all regions
• Greater focus on regional climate change, changes in
extreme events & link to human activity
• Interactive online global and regional atlas for observed &
projected climate change information
4
ESA programmes and missions in AR6
Chapter 1 – Framing, Context, Methods:
“Sentinel missions of the Copernicus programme…providing high spatial resolution and land-surface images.”
“ESA’s Cryosat-2 radar altimetry satellite mission has continued to provide measurements of the changes in the
thickness of sea ice and the elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice Sheets….longer timeseries from multiple
missions have led to considerable advances in understanding the origin of inconsistencies between mass balances
of different glaciers and reducing uncertainties in estimates of changes in the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.”
“ESA SMOS…filling critical gaps in the observation of hydrological trends and variability over land (Dorigo et al).”
Chapter 10 - Linking Global to Regional Climate Change:
“Satellite products provide a valuable complement to in situ measurements, particularly over regions where in-
situ measurements are unavailable…Currently 54 essential climate variables (ECVs; Bojinski et al., 2014) are
defined on…to the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union, to the ESA Climate
Change Initiative ESA-CCI…by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) program, and passed Their
observations are valuable (high confidence) for regional applications since they provide multi-channel images
at very high spatiotemporal resolutions.”
5
ESA Science: support for headline statements
“It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the
atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the
atmosphere, ocean cryosphere and biosphere has occurred.”
“The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole
and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are
unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years.”
“Improved knowledge of climate processes, paleoclimate evidence
and the response of the climate system to increasing radiative
forcing gives a best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3 AR6 Chapter 2 Figure 2.23: Annual and
degrees with a narrower range compared to AR5.” decadal global glacier mass change
66
ESA’s Climate Change Initiative: contributions
ESA CCI contributions to major IPCC reports
300
AR6 WG1 report:
7 lead/coordinating authors
250 Increase in # of papers
cited and citations
14 contributing authors 200
~10 expert reviewers 150
~75 papers cited 100
~285 in-text citations 50
0
IPCC 5th Assessment IPCC Special Report IPCC Special Report IPCC Special Report IPCC 6th Assessment
Report 2014 1.5 degrees 2018 on Climate Change & Oceans & Report 2021
Land 2019 Cryopsphere 2019
Papers cited Total citations
Number of CCI Lead authors Number of CCI Contributing Authors/Reviewers/Editors
7
CCI projects’ contribution
IPCC 6th Assessment Report
Citations and data references by CCI Project
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No of citations Data references
8CCI CMUG contributions to AR6
• 4 CMUG lead/coordinating authors
• 4 CMUG contributing authors
• CMUG contributes to the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool
(ESMValTool), an open access diagnostics & evaluation tool giving
climate modelers easy access to observational data
(including 5 CCI datasets) for easy, fast, traceable and
reproducible evaluation of complex Earth System Models
• CMUG partners are heavily involved in ESMValTool development:
DLR & Met Office are Co-PIs, SMHI, IPSL, MPI & BSC developers
Chapter 3 on Human Influence on climate change states ESMValTool used to “ensure traceability of the results
and provide an additional level of quality control”.
In Technical Summary fig TS.2 & chapter 3 fig 3.42 & 3.43, ESA CCI SM & SST among “primary reference
observational datasets” to show progress in climate models.
Climate Modelling User Group CMUG | 04-Oct-2021 | Slide 9Evaluation of CMIP6 models with ESMValTool
Relative model performance (RMSD) From: IPCC AR6, Chapter 3 (fig. 42)
CMIP5 CMIP6
Pattern correlations From: IPCC AR6, Chapter 3 (fig. 43)
Climate Modelling User Group CMUG | 04-Oct-2021 | Slide 10Break-out room discussions on ideas for future ESA climate
research activities relevant to IPCC
• After ECV project highlights attendees assigned randomly to six break-out rooms
• Self-organize a chair to facilitate the discussion and a rapporteur to capture ideas
• Focus on two questions:
• What significant new contribution(s) could future CCI activities make in the IPCC AR7 reports?
• What work in CCI+ phase 2 and the follow-on programme is required for these contributions?
• Complete power-point with list of ideas from each question
• Present 3-minute report back to plenary
11What significant new contribution(s) could future CCI activities
make in the IPCC AR7 reports?
• Idea 1
12What work in CCI+ phase 2 and the follow-on programme
is required for these contributions?
• Idea 1
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