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Southeast Asia Offshore Wind Power Outlook GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit 2020 Robert Liew | 13 October 2020 Trusted Power and Renewables Intelligence woodmac.com
GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit: Taiwan Virtual 2020 woodmac.com 1
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1GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit: Taiwan Virtual 2020 woodmac.com
Growing power demand in Southeast Asia is starting to drive interest in wind power
Despite slow start, wind power capacity is expected to increase seven-fold by 2035
Electricity Total Level of
Southeast Asia RE capacity outlook, 2015-2035
Population Active RE
Country output wind wind (GW)
(million) sector
2020-2030 YE/2019 activity
180 RE: +528%
Vietnam 97 +100% Solar / Wind 0.4GW ● Wind: +715%
160
Geothermal / 22
Philippines 110 +59%
Solar / Wind
0.4GW ● 140
Biomass / Solar
Thailand 70 +26%
/ Wind
1.5GW ● 120
Geothermal / 100
Indonesia 274 +92%
Solar / Wind
0.1GW ● 12
80
Cambodia 17 +173% Solar / Wind 0 ● 60
Laos 7 +70% Solar / Wind 0 ● 7
40
Myanmar 54 +76% Solar 0 ● 3
20
Malaysia 32 +39% Solar 0 ●
0
Brunei 0.4 +25% Solar 0 ● 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Singapore 6 +8% Solar 0 ● Wind Other Solar Battery
Note: Red = No planned projects, Yellow = announced planned projects, Green = wind projects under Note: Other includes Biomass and geothermal. Solar includes distributed and utility.
construction Source: Wood Mackenzie
Source: Wood Mackenzie
2GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit: Taiwan Virtual 2020 woodmac.com
Southeast Asia’s total wind power capacity will increase from 3GW to 12GW by 2029
As subsidies are cut, markets will undergo a transition period with investments temporarily falling back
Southeast Asia wind power capacity outlook, 2019-2029
(MW) (MW)
2,200 +1,781% 12,000
2,000 11,000
1,800 10,000
9,000
1,600
8,000
1,400
7,000
1,200
6,000
1,000
5,000
800
-81% 4,000
600
3,000
400 2,000
200 1,000
0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Cumulative Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia Laos Offshore
Note: Wood Mackenzie 3GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit: Taiwan Virtual 2020 woodmac.com
Existing pipeline is already almost ten times the size of operational wind assets
Announced wind pipeline in Southeast Asia by end of 1H/2020
(GW)
23.9GW
24
22
Philippines and
20
Vietnam pipeline
18 comprise 81% of
16 total Southeast Asia
14 Of which 61% are
12 for offshore wind
projects
10
8
6
4
2.4GW
2
0
Operational Under Cambodia Myanmar Indonesia Laos Philippines Vietnam TOTAL
construction
Planned (Onshore) Planned (Offshore)
Source: Wood Mackenzie
4GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit: Taiwan Virtual 2020 woodmac.com
By 2030, onshore and nearshore wind will be competitive with thermal power
Vietnam 2020 vs 2030 LCOE, and average end user tariffs in key Southeast Asia markets
(USD/MWh) Average end user tariff (USD/MWh) Average end user tariff
200 (2020) 200 (2030)
180 180 Singapore
160 160
Philippines
Philippines
140 140
120 +63% Singapore 120 -4% Malaysia
Thailand /Thailand
100 Malaysia 100 Indonesia
80 Indonesia 80 Vietnam
144 Vietnam
132
60 114 60
109
85 93
40 79 40
70 68 65
20 20 50
0 0
2020 2030
Coal USC Gas CC Utility solar PV Onshore wind Nearshore wind Offshore wind
Note: Ultra super critical (USC), combine cycle (CC), photovoltaic (PV)
Source: Wood Mackenzie
5GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit: Taiwan Virtual 2020 woodmac.com
COVID-19 base-case for APAC: Power demand disruption followed by strong
recovery in 2021
APAC annual change in power demand: APAC power demand % growth outlook, 2015-2025
Pre-COVID-19 vs. COVID-19 Q1 base case
(TWh) (%) Pre-COVID Q1 COVID-19 base case
+43%
800 9
700 8
7
600 -72%
6
500
5 Developing
400 Asia
4
300 Mainland
3
China
200 2
100 1 Developed
APAC
0 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
-1
Pre-COVID-19 Q1 COVID-19 base-case
-2
Note: Developing Asia includes India, Southeast Asia and rest of Asia. Developed Asia Pacific includes Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan region, Australia, New Zealand.
Source: Wood Mackenzie 6GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit: Taiwan Virtual 2020 woodmac.com
For now, coronavirus has a limited impact on offshore wind sector
• The need for Coronavirus
Demand side
Supply side
Downside risks
• Excess supply in Europe • European sub-suppliers pre- provisions in contracts signed
leaving significant reserve coronavirus were already facing after the coronavirus pandemic
capacity among suppliers to a slow 2020 emerged
catch-up in 2H 2020
• Only minor delays during Q1 • Uncertainty in the financial
• ~7% of new capacity additions and Q2 in 2020 in China are markets
in 2019 has been impacted by expected
the COVID-19 • Increased currency risk are likely
• Limited downside in Europe, to delay planned FID decisions
• Risk of delayed global as only one tender, is planned for
expansion in supply chain 2020 • Projects call of force majeure
ramp-up in major emerging because of supply chain issues
markets • Installation impact on Asia Pacific for wind turbine parts.
excluding China and the US will
be minor (if any) • Potential shortage of key raw
materials in the supply chain
• Potential delays in planned
wind auctions in 2020
Source: Wood Mackenzie 7GWEC Global Offshore Wind Summit: Taiwan Virtual 2020 woodmac.com A SELECTION OF RECENT ANALYSIS FROM GTM RESEARCH License Ownership Rights All reports are owned by Wood Mackenzie, protected by United States Copyright and international copyright/intellectual property laws under applicable treaties and/or conventions. User agrees not to export any report into a country that does not have copyright/intellectual property laws that will protect Wood Mackenzie’s rights therein. Grant of License Rights Wood Mackenzie, hereby grants user a personal, non-exclusive, non-refundable, non-transferable license to use the report for research purposes only pursuant to the terms and conditions of this agreement. Wood Mackenzie retains exclusive and sole ownership of each report disseminated under this agreement. User agrees not to permit any unauthorized use, reproduction, distribution, publication or electronic transmission of any report or the information/forecasts therein without the express written permission of Wood Mackenzie. Users purchasing this report may make a report available to other persons from their organization at the specific physical site covered by the agreement, but are prohibited from distributing the report to people outside the organization, or to other sites within the organization. Disclaimer of Warranty and Liability Wood Mackenzie has used its best efforts in collecting and preparing each report. Wood Mackenzie its employees, affiliates, agents, and licensors do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, correctness, non-infringement, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose of any reports covered by this agreement. Wood Mackenzie, its employees, affiliates, agents, or licensors shall not be liable to user or any third party for losses or injury caused in whole or part by our negligence or contingencies beyond Wood Mackenzie’s control in compiling, preparing or disseminating any report or for any decision made or action taken by user or any third party in reliance on such information or for any consequential, special, indirect or similar damages, even if Wood Mackenzie was advised of the possibility of the same. User agrees that the liability of Wood Mackenzie, its employees, affiliates, agents and licensors, if any, arising out of any kind of legal claim (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) in connection with its goods/services under this agreement shall not exceed the amount you paid to Wood Mackenzie for use of the report in question. Source: Wood Mackenzie 8
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