The négaWatt Scenario for France 2017-2050 - Energy transition through sufficiency, efficiency and renewables
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The négaWatt
Scenario for France
2017-2050
Energy transition through
sufficiency, efficiency
and renewables
Christian COUTURIER
Association négaWatt
27/06/2017 – AgroParisTech – Paris
With support of Fondation
Charles Léopold Mayer
pour le progrès de l’Homme
Who are we?
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Created in 2001 by a bunch of experts and field-practitioners
of energy
Goals :
• Sustainable energy scenarios
• Elaboration of sustainable strategies
• Lobbying at national level
• Proposals for energy policies
A core of around 25 “companions” + 25 “ambassadors”
Over 1000 members
Created in 2009
Subsidiary and operational branch of the association
2
The negaWatt scenario Global approach Demand and supply Energy balance and overall impacts
A change of paradigm
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
3. Subs=tu=on 2. Efficiency 1. Sufficiency
Develop flow-based Reduce the losses, Priori&ze energy
renewables to i.e. the need of end-uses in terms of
replace stock-based primary ressources individual/collec&ve
fissile and fossils to serve end-uses energy services
Transport and
Production distribution Consumption
losses losses losses
Primary
Energy Energy Final Energy
Carriers Energy Services
Primary
Energy
SUPPLY DEMAND
4
The negaWatt approach
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Prioritize the needs
Energy demand
for energy services
Reduce the amount
of energy consumed
to satisfy a given
need of services
Production
Substitute renewables
to fossil fuels and nuclear
5
Careful introduction of innovation
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
A trajectory that is robust without the need of hypothetical technological ruptures
… but open to innovations, based on their current level of maturity / readiness
Readiness of new technologies
Environnemental
Technological (TRL) Industrial (MRL)
and social (ESRL)
7 Prototype in operational Modelisation of generic
System demonstration
conditions impacts
Development and
8 Validation by tests and Impact assessment based
demonstration of complete
demonstrations on real data of a prototype
real scale system
9 Proven real system through Implementation and Systemic and multi-scale
successful operations manufacturing of system assessment
Impacts measured through
10 Optimized system Full scale production
real operation
Social and environmental
11 Massive deployment,
acceptability, indirect effects
integration to the system
measured
6
Energy demand Buildings: residential and tertiary Transports Industry and raw materials Agriculture and food
France: a constantly revised trend (“tendanciel”)
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Final energy consumption in France (past / trend and nW scenario)
3 000 2003
Tendanciel
2 500
Tendanciel 2003
2 000
1 500
nW 2003
1 000 Scénario nW
500
Réel
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
8
France: a constantly revised trend (“tendanciel”)
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Final energy consumption in France (past / trend and nW scenario)
3 000 2006
Tendanciel Tendanciel 2003
2 500
2 000 Tendanciel 2006
1 500
nW 2003
1 000
Scénario nW nW 2006
500
Réel
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
9
France: a constantly revised trend (“tendanciel”)
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Final energy consumption in France (past / trend and nW scenario)
3 000 2011
Tendanciel 2003
2 500
Tendanciel Tendanciel 2006
2 000
Tendanciel 2011
1 500 nW 2003
1 000 nW 2006
Scénario nW
nW 2011
500
Réel
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10France: a constantly revised trend (“tendanciel”)
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Final energy consumption in France (past / trend and nW scenario)
3 000 2017
2 500 Tendanciel 2003
Tendanciel 2006
2 000 Tendanciel 2011
Tendanciel
Tendanciel 2016
1 500
nW 2003
1 000 nW 2006
Scénario nW
nW 2011
500
nW 2016
Réel
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
11Results – Final energy consumption by sector
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
TWh
2000 Sufficiency
Sobriété
1800 Efficiency
Efficacité
(demand)
1600 596 TWh (demande)
-512 TWh
Transports
Transports
1400
1200 Résidentiel-
Buildings
-338 TWh tertiaire
1000
Agriculture
Agriculture
800 781 TWh
225 TWh Industry
Industrie
600
400 66 TWh 341 TWh Trend
Tendanciel
200 57 TWh négaWattnW
387 TWh Scénario
183 TWh
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 12Energy supply Bioenergy Electric renewables Nuclear power and fossil fuels Energy carriers and grids
Results – Primary energy
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Reducing consumption is key to allow
for developing renewables to come in substitution, rather than in addition
Sufficiency
Efficiency (demand)
Efficiency (supply)
Other renewables
Biomass
-66% Electric renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Fossil gas
Coal
>99% négaWatt
Trend
14Competition or synergies:
the « hexalemma » of land and biomass use
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
A new balance between the main uses of land and biomass
*
* Foresta (VII° Siècle) : « territoire soustrait à l'usage général » ;
« terrain sur lequel on a prononcé un ban, une proscription de
culture, d'habitation »
15Afterres2050
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Comprehensive report
available onhttp://afterres2050.solagro.org
16Energy fluxes from agriculture (final use)
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Total = primary energy content of all agricultural biomass
Human food humaine
Alimenta&on
Exports
Exporta&ons
ANerres
Energy et
Energie and materials
matériaux
Lossesélevage
Pertes by animals metabolism
(métabolisme
animaux)
Actuel Organic maWer on the soils
Apports aux sols C stable
(stable C)
Apports
Organicaux solson
maWer C labile
the soils
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 PJ (labile C)
Destination finale des flux d’énergie primaire (via la photosynthèse) en PJ / an – France métropolitaine
172 à 5 less impacts
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
2015 2050
Methane and N20 -56%
Energy consumption -4O%
Synthetic nitrogen consumption -6O%
Phytosanitary consumption -7O%
Irrigation in summer -8O%
Ammonia emissions -7O%
Land artificialisation -5O%
18Agricultural resilients systems and producers of
biodiversity
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
19420 TWh of bioenergy
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Algues No dedicated cultures for bioenergy
Cultures annuelles No competition with other uses
Herbes et cultures fourragères TWh PCs
Cultures intermédiaires 450
Biodéchets
annuelles 400
DéjecAons d'élevage
t cultures fourragères 350
Résidus de culture
intermédiaires 300
ets Dérivés du bois
250
Produits connexes
ns d'élevage
200
Bois hors forêt
de culture
Bois forêt 150
du bois
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
100 20
connexes
s forêt 50
t 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 20420 TWh of bioenergy
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
TWh
450
400
350
300
Biogas
Biogaz
250
Liquid biomass
Biomasse liquide
200 Biomasse solide
Solid biomass
150
100
50
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
21Gas carrier in 2050
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Fossil gas Stationnary fuel
Gas carrier
0 TWh 80 TWh
260 TWh
Methanation Vehicle fuel
90 TWh 180 TWh
Power
Solide biomass sector
250 -> 70 TWh
Biogas
130 -> 100 TWh
22Impacts and benefits GreenHouse Gases Air quality Energy poverty Costs and employment
Greenhouse gas emissions in négaWatt scenario
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
MteqCO2
500
450
Others
Autres gaz
400 NN2O
2O
CH
CH4
4
350 CO
CO22
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
24Carbon neutrality by 2050
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
MteqCO2
500
Raw GHG tous
Emission emissions
GES
400
Carbon capture
Stockage forêts by lands
et prairies
300
Net GHG emissions
Emissions nettes
200
100
0
-100
-200
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Evolution of raw and net GHG emissions by 2100
25Energy transition saves costs on the long term
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Billion €
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 040 2 045 2 050
négaWattnégaWatt
Scénario scenario Trend scenario
Scénario tendanciel Net savingsnettes
Economies
Total energy related expenses
26A clear positive impact on jobs
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
700 000 emploi net total
600 000 emploi brut bâ&ment
Jobs (full =me equivalent)
500 000
emploi brut renouvelables
400 000
emploi brut répara&on
300 000
200 000 effet induit
100 000
emploi brut informa&on
0
emploi brut efficacité appareils
-100 000
-200 000 emploi brut énergie non
renouvelable & réseaux
-300 000 emploi brut transports
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
+ 100 000 jobs in 2020, 400 000 in 2030, 600 000 in 2050
compared to the trend scenario
2707. Conclusion
Energy transition, a project of society
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Energy transition is a response to the unsustainability
of the energy system
Energy sufficiency and efficiency can cut half of our final energy
consumption by 2050
This is enough for allowing a realistic development of mixed renewable
energies to meet 100% of our needs
This could make France carbon neutral by 2050,
in compliance with its shared responsibility as party
to the Paris Agreement
It brings a lot of additional environmental, social
and economic benefits
29Questions for the science
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
What are the priority research needs for the next 10 years ?
Level 10 of TRL : process optimization
Level 11 of MRL : massive deployment, system integration
Which tools for research and development are lacking today?
ESRL scale
More systemic approach
Which types of partnerships are necessary for the development of
bioeconomy? Which new stakeholders ?
Governance of soils / biomass / landscape as commons
Find new ways on how to manage the stakeholders community
30What are the priority research needs for the next 10 years ?
• Level 10 of TRL : process optimization
• Level 11 of MRL : massive deployment, system integration
Which tools for research and development are lacking today?
• ESRL scale
• More systemic approach
Which types of partnerships are necessary for the development of
bioeconomy? Which new stakeholders ?
• Governance of soils / biomass / landscape as commons
• Find new ways on how to manage the stakeholders community
031Pour aller plus loin
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Rapport de synthèse du scénario Deux ouvrages
Graphiques dynamiques
Vidéos
Revue de presse
Recevoir nos actualités
www.negawatt.org
Les réponses aux idées reçues sur la transition énergétique
www.decrypterlenergie.org
32Thank you for your attention!
A S S O C I AT I O N
négaWatt
Rendre possible ce qui est souhaitable …
www.negawatt.org www.decrypterlenergie.org
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