Study of Future Economic Impacts of Climate Change: A Municipal Perspective - Julius Lindsay Community Energy Specialist City of Mississauga John ...

Study of Future Economic
Impacts of Climate Change:
A Municipal Perspective
Julius Lindsay
Community Energy Specialist
City of Mississauga

John Charles
Planner, Energy & Environment
Halifax Regional Municipality

Trend in Global Economic Losses
from Climate-related Extreme Events

The Economic Impacts of the
Weather Effects of Climate Change
on Communities
• Funded by Insurance Bureau
  of Canada & Natural
  Resources Canada
                                                2040
• Conducted by Green
  Analytics Corp. & Ontario              2020
  Centre for Climate Impacts
  and Adaptation Resources        2015
• 3 climate scenarios -
  baseline, moderate and high
• 2 time periods considered for
  each scenario

Impacts Examined - Mississauga

Stormwater        Freezing Rain

Impacts Examined - Halifax

Photo: Roger Percy & Andre Laflamme, www.ec.gc.ca   Photo: Len Waag, www.ec.gc.ca

           Storm Surge                                      Extreme Wind

Study Methodology
• Calculated DIRECT IMPACTS of climate-related extreme
  events on fixed assets and from business interruptions
• Estimated SECONDARY IMPACTS of these direct impacts
• Results expressed as Expected Annual Damage (EAD)
       • Damages per year expected from a climate-related
         extreme event
       • accounts for the magnitude of the range of possible
         events & the probability of the range of possible events
         occurring
• Study also analyzed impacts of a Single Extreme Event

*** Estimates expressed as cost increases, not totals

Study Limitations
• Not a comprehensive account of all relevant costs
  because of:
   – Data gaps
   – Some costs deemed outside scope of study (e.g.
     restoring coastal wetlands after storm surge)
   – Limited to two types of events per community
• Does not consider climate change adaptation actions
• Does not predict where and when a climate-related
  extreme event will happen

Key Findings for Mississauga
• Greater direct impacts under the climate change scenarios
   – Value of buildings, cost of reconstruction & sector output
     driving baseline increases
   – Higher impact from moderate climate change scenario
• Business interruption dominates freezing rain impacts
• Residential homes hit the hardest during storm water flood
  events
• Secondary impacts comparable across modelling approaches

Study Results – Stormwater in
  Mississauga
   Economic Impact          Increased damages from
 (Increase in EAD in          a major event (in
        2040)                       2040)
Up to $32M                  Up to $27M
• 2040 estimate under moderate
  climate change scenario
• 1 in 100 year storm

Study Results – Freezing Rain in
  Mississauga
   Economic Impact          Increased damages from
 (Increase in EAD in          a major event (in
        2040)                       2040)
Up to $2.9M                 Up to $200M
• 2040 estimate under moderate
  climate change scenario
• 1 in 100 year storm

Study Results – Cumulative EAD

                $31M                $70M

Freezing Rain          Stormwater

Key Findings for Halifax
• Greater direct impacts under the climate change scenarios
    – Building stock, cost of reconstruction & sector output
      driving baseline increases
• Relative increase in flood impacts 2020-2040 larger than
  increase in wind impacts 2020-2040
• Secondary impacts comparable across modelling approaches
• Climate change driving increases in cumulative impacts over
  time
• Extreme events more costly with high climate change

Cumulative average annual direct & secondary EAD of
  Storm Surge Flooding in Halifax

Freezing Rain                         Stormwater

Study Results – Storm Surge in
  Halifax – Worst Case Scenario
   Economic Impact           Increased damages from
 (Increase in EAD in           a major event (in
        2040)                        2040)
Up to $34M                   Up to $29M
• 2040 estimate under high climate
  change scenario
• 1 in 100 year storm

Cumulative average annual direct & secondary EAD of
Extreme Wind in Halifax

Study Results – Extreme Wind in
  Halifax – Worst Case Scenario
   Economic Impact           Increased damages from
 (Increase in EAD in           a major event (in
        2040)                        2040)
Up to $140M                  Up to $330M
• 2040 estimate under high climate
  change scenario
• 1 in 100 year storm

Important Considerations
• These are case studies, all municipalities are facing
  impacts
• Investments in infrastructure are needed
• Cities are taking action, need resources and support

HALIFAX
CLIMATE CHANGE
  ADAPTATION
    EFFORTS

Municipal Climate Change Action
Plan (MCCAP)
• MCCAP is a requirement of the 2010-2014 Federal Gas
  Tax Extension Agreement and the Municipal Funding
  Agreement
• Submitted as an amendment to ICSP
• Focus on both mitigation & adaptation
• Approach by federal government to get municipalities
  thinking about climate change adaptation and mitigation
  in their planning & management

Sea Level Rise Updates
• Flood scenario mapping to 2100 redone with new IPCC
  AR5 estimates, and using research (Daigle) that
  interprets these estimates for the Halifax Harbour
   – Halifax’s LiDAR data is from 2007
• Federal funding application submitted to the National
  Disaster Mitigation Program to cost share the reflying
  and expansion of our LIDAR coverage to include all of
  HRM’s coastlines and watersheds.
   – If successful, will then update and expand our flood
      scenario maps and land vulnerability assessment.

Coastal Erosion Controls
• Living Shoreline Project
• Northwest Arm Seawall
• Road protection in Cow Bay

Flooding Controls
•   Point Pleasant Park
     – Technical report on storm waves & shoreline restoration
     – Tidal lawn
•   Stormwater Management
     – Bylaw development
     – SWM plans for new developments
     – HW requirements to balance pre & post flow for
       Industrial/Commercial/Multi-Unit Residential
•   Floodplain study of the Sackville and Little Sackville Rivers
•   Implementation of Urban Forest Master Plan
•   Development of the Halifax Green Network Plan

EU-Canada Urban Policy
Exchange Initiative
•   Participation in an EU-funded,
    EU-Canada Policy Exchange
•   Focus on low carbon
    development, climate adaptation
    & biodiversity
•   Rare opportunity for cities to
    collaborate internationally

EU-Canada Urban Policy
Exchange Initiative
• Collaborative project:
  bioswale and naturalized
  stormwater retention pond
  demonstration project in
  Halifax
• Stakeholders include HW,
  HRM Parks, Road, Energy
  & Environment, Legal &
  Planning, Developer
                              BIOSWALE IN V-G, SPAIN

MISSISSAUGA
CLIMATE CHANGE
  ADAPTATION
    EFFORTS

Mississauga Climate Change
Actions
                                                            Adaptation
         Policy                  Mitigation
                                                            (Resilience)

Energy and Climate Change   LED Streetlight
Policies in OP              Conversion               Stormwater Charge
                            Greenhouse Gas
                            Inventory                Corporate Climate Risk
                                                     Assessment
                            5 year Energy
                            Conservation Plan
                                                     Community Vulnerability
                            Green Fleet Activities   Assessment and Synthesis
                            Green Development        Report
                            Standards
                            FCM Partners in
                            Climate Protection
                            (PCP)
                            1 Million Trees

Corporate Climate Risk
Assessment
                                             City Manager’s
                                              Department

                 Planning and                                             Corporate
                    Building                                               Services
                                            Corporation
                                             of The City
                                                 of
                                            Mississauga

                           Transportation                     Community
                             and Works                         Services

Climate Projections
    MORE CERTAINTY                                     LESS CERTAINTY

           More heat
                                   More        More ice
Warmer waves
                   More winter     intense     storms
winters
                   precipitation   rainfalls        Increase in
  Longer growing                                    wind extremes
  season (frost-free)

                     ~125 Risks Identified

Stormwater Charge
• Allows us to increase investment in
  the City’s stormwater system
• Provides dedicated, sustainable
  funding for long-term planning
• Is a fairer distribution of stormwater
  system costs (based on hard
  surface)
• A credit program incents best
  management practices

Questions?
Julius Lindsay                 John Charles
Community Energy Specialist    Planner, Energy & Environment
City of Mississauga            Halifax Regional Municipality

T 905-615-3200 ext.5344        p. 902.490.5771
julius.lindsay@mississauga.ca  charlej@halifax.ca
www.mississauga.ca/environment www.halifax.ca/environment
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