Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021- 2026 - Analysys ...
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Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026
Radio access networks:
worldwide forecast 2021–
2026
Roberto Kompany and Caroline Gabriel
Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026 2
About this report
This report provides forecasts for mobile network operator (MNO) GEOGRAPHICAL
COVERAGE
spending on radio access networks (RANs) for 2021–2026. It COVERAGE
provides details on spending by service type and region, as well ▪ Worldwide RAN vendor revenue:
as on the major drivers, including 5G. The report also provides ▪ Central and Eastern Europe ▪ Physical, virtual RAN (vRAN)
recommendations for vendors and MNOs. ▪ Developed Asia–Pacific and Open RAN
The report is based on several sources, including: ▪ Emerging Asia–Pacific ▪ radio technology – 5G and
▪ Latin America non-5G:
▪ Analysys Mason’s research from the past year ▪ Middle East and North Africa – sites (macro, micro, mini-
▪ North America macro)
▪ interviews with MNOs and vendors worldwide.
▪ Sub-Saharan Africa – antennas.
▪ Western Europe
KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED IN THIS REPORT WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT
▪ What are the key trends and factors that will affect the RAN market ▪ Vendor strategy teams that need to understand how spending is
during 2021–2026? shifting from non-5G RAN to 5G RAN, and how the vRAN will grow in
▪ What are the growth rates in each of the coverage areas? importance.
▪ What are the regional factors that will drive growth? ▪ Product management teams that are responsible for feature
▪ What should vendors do to exploit new business opportunities? functionality and geographical focus, and product marketing teams that
are responsible for revenue growth.
▪ How will professional services for RAN perform during the forecast
period? ▪ MNOs that are planning to deploy vRAN and Open RAN solutions that
are based on O-RAN Alliance specifications or are part of Telecom
Infra Project (TIP) initiatives and want to ensure that they remain up-
to-date.
Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026 3
MNOs will shift their spending to the virtual RAN and Open RAN sooner than
previously expected, and will increasingly focus on 64×64 massive MIMO antennas
We believe that the virtual RAN and open RAN will be significant Figure 1: Changes to this forecast report since the 2020–2025
drivers of MNOs’ RAN spending during the forecast period. Open report
RANs are still a few years away in terms of complex 5G 2021–2026
deployments in dense urban environments using massive MIMO
antennas, but MNOs have already announced deployment plans
RAN
for less-complex, rural areas. The industry effort in this area by
both vendors and MNOs has increased significantly.
Physical
Massive MIMO antennas are an important component of 5G
Professional services and product revenue
RANs and will significantly improve MNOs’ asset usage efficiency. Virtual
Vendors will continue to spend on R&D to improve the features of
massive MIMO antennas and reduce their weight. MNOs initially Open RAN
deployed 5G networks using 8×8 and 32×32 antenna
elements, but they will shift their spending to higher-order
64×64 antennas due to their more-favourable cost/benefit ratio. 5G and non-
5G
Discussions with vendors and MNOs, as well as the modelling
carried out for our mobile capex forecast, suggest that the overall Sites: macro
RAN spending during the forecast period will be higher than we
expected when writing the previous edition of this report.1 We Sites: micro
have updated our model to better reflect the increased 5G
Sites: mini-
investments in some countries, particularly China and the USA, macro
and we have reduced the spending estimates for non-5G RAN.
Antennas
Source: Analysys Mason
1For more information, see Analysys Mason’s Mobile capex: worldwide trends and forecast.
Note that we only report data at the main segment level only. If you have any questions about this, please get in touch.
Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026
Contents Executive summary and recommendations
Forecast
Overall telecoms market context
Market definition
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026 30
About the authors
Roberto Kompany (Senior Analyst) is a member of Analysys Mason’s Telecoms Software and Networks research team and is the lead analyst
for the Next-Generation Wireless Networks programme focusing on strategy and market research. He is also a Cambridge Wireless Special
Interest Group (SIG) mobile broadband champion. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Roberto worked for Dixons Carphone, where he analysed the
effect on the business of shifts in the telecoms market – for example, in terms of mergers, operator KPIs and technology – in Europe and the
UK. Roberto holds an MSc in Mobile & Satellite Communications from University of Surrey and an MBA from IE Business School.
Caroline Gabriel (Research Director) leads Analysys Mason’s Networks research practice, as well as leading many 5G-related research activities
across multiple programmes. She is responsible for building and running Analysys Mason's unique research base of mobile and converged
operators worldwide. She works directly with Analysys Mason's research clients to advise them on wireless network trends and market
developments. She has been engaged in technology analysis, research and consulting for 30 years, and has focused entirely on mobile and
wireless since 2002. Her focus is on critical issues and trends related to mobile and wireless infrastructure, particularly operator deployment
intentions for 4G, 5G, cloud-RAN and other technologies. She has led research and consulting projects with a wide range of clients, including
mobile infrastructure vendors, large and start-up operators, regulators, trade bodies, government agencies and financial institutions.
Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026 31 We are experts in the telecoms, media and technology sector
Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026 32 Our research programmes
Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026 33 Our areas of expertise
Radio access networks: worldwide forecast 2021–2026
PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN AUGUST 2021
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