Climate Governance - February 2022
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Climate
Action
Tracker
Climate Governance
Assessment of the government’s ability and readiness to
Assessment of the government’s ability and readiness to
transform the Philippines into a zero emissions society
transform Nigeria into a zero emissions society
CAT Climate Governance Series
NIGERIA
February 2022
CAT Climate Governance series Under the Paris Agreement, governments have committed to limiting temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Achieving this objective will require halving global emissions by 2030 and reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and all gases around 2070, with net negative emissions thereafter. Governments in all countries play a critical role in enabling this transformation, which involves action from all aspects of society and the economy. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) tracks the progress of countries towards achieving the climate targets they have set for themselves under the Paris Agreement and what the combined effect of these commitments and policies mean for global temperature levels at the end of this century. In this series, the CAT expands on its country analysis to evaluate the ability and readiness of national governments to enable the required economy-wide transformation towards a zero emissions society. Our assessment focuses on national governments and analyses four aspects of governance covering key enabling factors for effective climate action: • the political commitment of the government to decarbonisation, • the institutional framework it has put in place to achieve its emission reduction targets, • the processes it has established to develop, implement and review mitigation policies, and • its ability and willingness to engage with relevant stakeholders on policy development. The Climate Governance Series seeks to offer a standardised and replicable approach to assessing a government’s ability and readiness to achieve the required transformation, highlighting positive developments and areas for improvement. Since 2019, we have been expanding the scope of our coverage. All country profiles are available on our website.
Legend
Understanding our indicators
This report series seeks to produce a standardised and replicable approach to assessing a country’s
readiness to transition to a zero emissions society. To achieve this, we have assessed a number of
possible indicators under four broad categories and eleven criteria. Criteria are marked in bold text
throughout this document.
Notwithstanding the desire for standardisation, our framework is a living document and we
occasionally revise the number and make-up of our indicators. For complete details, see our
methodology page. This assessment of Nigeria is based on our 2020 methodology.
Understanding our rating system
Our rating system highlights positive developments within countries, identifies areas of improvement,
and establishes a basis on which to compare climate governance across countries.
Each individual indicator has been assessed and given a score. The categories and criteria linked to
those indicators are then given a rating based on those scores.
≤ 20% of possible score
Very Poor This rating indicates that the government is deficient and
improvement is necessary.
20 – 40% of possible score
Poor This rating indicates that the government is showing a limited level of
readiness and improvement is still necessary.
40 – 60% of possible score
Neutral This rating indicates that the government is showing some level of
readiness, but improvement is still necessary.
60 – 80% of possible score
Acceptable This rating indicates that the government is showing a good level of
readiness, although improvement is still possible.
≥ 80% of possible score
Advanced This rating indicates that the government is performing well,
although improvement is still possible and beneficial.Executive summary Transiting to a zero emissions society has not been a top priority for Nigeria; however, recent actions by the Buhari administration and the National Assembly indicate that decarbonisation may be moving up on the domestic agenda. In late 2021, Nigeria adopted a net zero target and President Buhari signed the long-awaited Climate Change Bill into law. There is some support from key figures for mitigation actions, like the Vice President’s support of the renewable energy target. Time will tell whether these developments mark a real shift. Climate change does not play a significant role in party politics in Nigeria, which is typically centered around addressing security, corruption and economic reform. However, there have been no substantive rollbacks in climate policies, and passage of the Climate Change Bill marks a positive shift in Nigeria’s political landscape. Pervasive corruption, particularly in the oil and gas sector, is a risk to the transition and impedes the government’s ability to respond to climate change. Effective coordination across Nigerian ministries and agencies at all levels of government is currently limited. As a result, climate change is not consistently mainstreamed into policy plans and targets. Meetings of the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (ICCC), a key coordinating mechanism established to promote engagement on Nigeria’s climate response across sectors, have been intermittent and ad hoc. The creation of the National Council on Climate Change under the 2021 Climate Change Act is expected to improve coordination. Nigeria does not have a bespoke entity to provide advice and analysis on transition policies, and existing organisations have done little work in this area. However, the country regularly works with international organisations to support policy development processes, though it is difficult to gauge the extent to which the government considers any advice received. The government is currently engaging with national and international organisations to develop decarbonisation pathways as it turns its 2050 Long-Term Vision into an implementable strategy. Capital and resource constraints are a serious impediment for Nigeria. Resource allocation for mitigation measures has not been consistent in recent years. The Department of Climate Change is reliant on external consultants for many tasks, which impedes capacity building and institutional learning over time. It is unclear how the Climate Change Act will impact Nigeria’s institutional framework; however, implementation of key provisions has the potential to improve governance structures for climate action and achieving Nigeria’s net zero ambitions. Nigeria’s policy processes have improved with the adoption of the Climate Change Act, though there is still scope for further enhancement. By setting into law a net zero target and establishing a five- year and annual carbon budget process, the Climate Change Act improves on the country’s near- and long-term planning. The government has also adopted its 2050 Long-Term Vision (LTV). The targets contained in the Act and Vision are not aligned, but further work to elaborate on the Vision is planned for 2022. Existing regulations outside the new climate law that address mitigation are fragmented and piecemeal. There is significant room to improve on Nigeria’s transparency framework. The country lacks a fully operational GHG Inventory System and its ability to track climate finance and mitigation actions is limited. A number of initiatives are underway to address both of these issues. Given that the Climate Change Act provides for a five-year carbon budget cycle, it is assumed this will establish a formalised ratchet up mechanism that ensures its NDC is reviewed and updated; however, it is unclear if this will be in sync with the Paris Agreement’s five-year cycle. There is significant room to improve the government’s support of public engagement and education. Climate literacy amongst the general public remains low. The new law could help ameliorate the situation as it includes provisions to integrate climate change into the educational curricula. Nigeria has committed to advancing the just transition and is increasingly incorporating green job considerations into employment and environmental plans. However, concerns over a public backlash CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 3
in response to fossil fuel subsidy reform only serve to highlight the importance of fair climate policies
and the need to build trust in the public that compensatory programmes will be available.
Those at risk from the transition, especially the oil and gas industry, are likely have significant
influence over the government, given the long history of corruption in the sector.
Category Criteria Recommendations
High-level • Strengthen leadership on the transition to a zero emission
government society across all sectors, particularly concerning linkages to
leadership other national priorities.
Political
commitment
Quality of
government
decision making
• Ensure swift implementation of the institutional framework
established under the 2021 Climate Change Act.
Effective
coordination • Ensure the National Council on Climate Change meets
regularly, rather than on an ad hoc basis as previous
institutions have, in order to support effective coordination
within government.
• Establish an authoritative institution, or mandate an existing
Institutional Knowledge institution to provide advice to the government on
framework infrastructure transition-related issues.
• Increase staffing and resources of the Department on
Climate Change, or ensure adequate resources in the new
National Council on Climate Change established under the
Climate Change Act, to advance implementation of the
Adequate climate strategy.
resources • Provide consistent levels of funding for climate mitigation
measures in the Federal Budget.
• Reconcile differences in ambition between the net zero
Paris-compatible target passed into law under the Climate Change Act and the
emissions pathway
overall and sectoral targets submitted in Nigeria’s Long-
Term Vision to ensure short and medium-term planning is
consistent with Nigeria’s long-term goals.
Policy Transparency • Ensure climate objectives are mainstreamed into sectoral
processes framework policies.
• Continue to develop and strengthen the transparency
framework, especially tracking and reviewing climate action.
Ratchet-up
mechanism • Ensure adequate resources and expert capacities are
available to support recent institutional setups.
Level • Increase public awareness of climate change and the need
and scope for a transition through public outreach and education.
• Continue to build on efforts to ensure a just transition and
Management of build trust in the fairness of climate policies
Stakeholder non-state actor
engagement interests
.
Exogenous non-
state interests and
influencce
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 4Contents
Executive summary ............................................................................................................................................ 3
Contents................................................................................................................................................................ 5
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 6
1.1 Domestic context ............................................................................................................................... 6
1.2 Climate Governance Snapshot ......................................................................................................... 8
National assessment ............................................................................................................................... 12
2.1 Political commitment....................................................................................................................... 12
2.2 Institutional Framework .................................................................................................................. 15
2.3 Process for policy development, implementation and review ................................................. 19
2.4 Stakeholder engagement................................................................................................................ 21
Authors................................................................................................................................................................ 25
References ......................................................................................................................................................... 26
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 5Introduction 1.1 Domestic context Nigeria is a Federal Republic consisting of 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999). Nigeria’s history since 1960 has been closely tied to its oil production: Nigeria has been a member of OPEC since 1971 and, in 2020, was the world’s 11th largest oil producer (Varrella, 2021). In 2015, Muhammadu Buhari was elected president on a strong anti-corruption and counterterrorism platform. The 2015 election was widely regarded as a success, setting a new standard for fair elections in Nigeria and representing the first transition of power between political parties in the new democracy (Situation Room, 2019). Buhari’s re-election in 2019, however, was considered a backwards step. Civil society organisations questioned the credibility of the election process and the opposition candidate from the People’s Democratic Party challenged the results in court (though this is not uncommon in Nigerian politics) (Campbell, 2019; Situation Room, 2019). President Buhari, having served two terms, is ineligible to run in the next election, which will take place in early 2023 (Sanni, 2020). Nigeria faces a number of challenges. Corruption is widespread (Afrobarometer, 2021; Transparency International, 2021). While President Buhari had made some progress, some view his anti-corruption efforts as selective attempts to target the opposition (Igwe, 2020; Mbah, 2019; Musser, 2019). In June 2021, President Buhari instituted a nationwide Twitter ban after the platform removed one of his tweets on the instability in southeast Nigeria (BBC News, 2021a). Civil society groups widely condemned the ban and raised concern about other attempts to limit free speech through social media regulations (Sahara Reporters, 2021c). Terrorism and violence, especially from attacks by Boko Haram — one of the largest Islamist military groups in Africa — is a key security issue (Campbell, 2021). The group’s kidnapping of over two hundred girls from their school in 2014 made international headlines (Holpuch, 2018). Since the incident, there has been a rise in mass kidnappings by armed groups seeking ransom, predominantly targeting schools (Orjinmo, 2021). Hundreds of students have been kidnapped in 2021, including 140 children kidnapped from a school in Kaduna on July 5 th (Deutsche Welle, 2021). Violent land use disputes between farmers and herders are also an issue (International Crisis Group, 2018; Tade, 2020). While violent conflicts peaked in 2014 and 2015, there has been a resurgence in recent years (Campbell, 2021; Kajjo, 2020; Maclean & Alfa, 2021; Searcey, 2020). There are longstanding calls for an end to police brutality and the need for meaningful police reform (Akinpelu, 2020). Significant protests, garnering international attention, took place in October 2020 (BBC News, 2020a). At least twelve protesters died when security forces allegedly opened fire, though the government denies that anyone was killed (Amnesty International, 2021). A judicial inquiry has been established to investigate the incident and broader issue of police brutality (Adediran, 2021; BBC News, 2020b). Nigeria’s main oil-producing region, the Niger Delta, has a long history of unrest and insecurity (Campbell, 2020; Mbachu & Clowes, 2020; Owolabi & George, 2020). Oil pollution has significantly disrupted communities in the region that rely on fishing and farming. The Federal government has reported 370 oil spills nationally in 2020 alone, equivalent to 106 oil tankers, though actual values may be higher (Amnesty International, 2018; NOSDRA, 2021; Watts & Zalik, 2020). Communities struggle to receive proper compensation, with villages often left to try to hold international oil companies to account themselves (Maclean, 2021). Recent high-profile cases have sided with impacted communities (BBC News, 2021b; Payne & Ridley, 2021; The Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, 2021). Nigeria ranks low on UNDP’s human development index, with 40% of Nigerians living in poverty, despite pre-pandemic economic growth (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2020b; United Nations Development Programme, 2020). Regional inequalities have increased, with poverty growing in rural areas and northern zones while southern zones have improved. It is estimated only 10% of the CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 6
working-age population is employed in formal wage labour, with the majority of new jobs created in the informal economy (International Telecommunication Union, 2021). Nigeria’s economy is highly dependent on its oil and gas sector, accounting for about 56% of government revenue in 2019 (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2020). The country fell into a recession following a slump in oil prices in 2016. As oil prices rebounded, Nigeria’s economy began to recover; however, COVID-19 and the subsequent drop in oil prices has once again plunged the economy into recession. Despite the sharp contraction in early 2020, Nigeria’s economy rebounded sooner than expected with GDP growing 0.11% in the fourth quarter (Ohuocha, 2021). By Q2 2021, economic growth exceeded pre-pandemic levels (National Bureau of Statistics, 2021). Agriculture and land use, and the energy sector are Nigeria’s two largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is significant uncertainty around land use emissions in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Third National Communication estimates land use accounted for half of Nigeria’s emissions in 2016 (over 300 MtCO2e), while Nigeria’s updated NDC reports land use emissions together with agriculture as about one quarter of emissions in 2018 (approximately 87 MtCO2e). Both sources estimate the energy sector is responsible for just over 200 MtCO2e (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2021; Federal Ministry of Environment, 2020). Despite being a major producer of crude oil, Nigeria relies heavily on imported petroleum products due to limited and aging refining capacity (Bala-Gbogbo, 2019). However, the government plans to expand its natural gas production to reduce the country’s reliance on petroleum products (Economic Sustainability Committee, 2020). In 2021, fuel shortages hit cities across the country amid uncertainty and confusion over government pricing. Local sources report shortages were induced by a price hike by depot owners in anticipation of rebounding international oil prices (Olawoyin, 2021a). According to the revised 2018 National Energy Policy (NEP), the government also intends to revive the country’s coal industry, but there has been little evidence of this happening (Dunne, 2020; Energy Commission of Nigeria, 2018; MMSD, n.d.). In the power sector, natural gas provides about 80% of electricity with the remainder supplied largely by hydropower (IEA, 2019). Renewable energy, excluding hydropower, makes up a very small portion of the power sector at less than 1%. Nigeria has 2020 and 2030 targets for renewable energy, including hydropower, but have missed its 2020 target and is far off its 2030 target (IRENA, 2021; Ministry of Power, 2015). The electricity grid is highly unreliable, with more frequent and prolonged blackouts than any other country on the continent (IEA, 2019). Nigeria is also the largest user of oil-fired back-up generators in Africa (IEA, 2019). Nigerians spend about USD 14bn per year on generators and fuel, producing an estimated 29 MtCO2e annually (Moss & Gleave, 2014; Olalekan, 2020). As of 2019, only 55% of Nigerians had access to electricity, with population growth outpacing access rates (IEA IRENA UNSD World Bank WHO, 2021). The government aims to increase electricity access to 75% by 2020 and 90% by 2030; however, it looks unlikely that the 2020 target was met (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2016). CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 7
1.2 Climate Governance Snapshot In November 2021, Nigerian president signed the Climate Change Bill into law. The Climate Change Act sets a net zero target and provides an overarching legal framework to achieve the country’s climate goals (Okereke & Onuigbo, 2021). The new law requires the government to adopt a National Climate Change Action plan, to be ratified by the Federal Executive Council, and to set five-year carbon budgets in line with the net zero target. While the text of the law is not yet available, several key provisions are expected to improve coordintation of climate action in the country and mainstream climate objectives into national policies (Okereke & Onuigbo, 2021). The law establishes a National Council on Climate Change (“the Council”) headed by the President to oversee implementation of the Action Plan, support the Federal Ministry of Environment (FME) in coordinating climate action, and administer a Climate Change Fund. Pending implementation of the new climate law and establishment of the Council, the Department of Climate Change (“the Department”) within the FME has been the lead agency mandated with overseeing climate policy in Nigeria (DCC, n.d.-b). One responsibility of the Department is to convene and chair the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (ICCC), which brings together stakeholders across ministries and other relevant government bodies, the private sector, civil society and academia (Hassamal et al., 2020). It is not yet clear how the Climate Change Act will impact the roles of the Department or the ICCC. Under the new law, the Minister of Environment is expected to serve on the Council and the FME is tasked with setting the carbon budget (Okereke & Onuigbo, 2021). At COP26, President Buhari further committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2060 (the Act itself aims for the 2050-2070 period) (Varin, 2021). Nigeria has developed an Energy Transition Plan aimed at achieving Nigeria’s net zero ambitions; however, details of this plan are not yet available (Rural Electrification Agency, 2021). Nigeria’s climate policy is set in its revised National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) and programmes to be implemented are included in the National Climate Change Programmes for Nigeria for 2021- 2030, approved in June 2021 (Department of Climate Change, 2021b, 2021a). The NCCP outlines mitigation and adaptation policy measures, enabling conditions and means of implementation necessary to achieve Nigeria’s climate objectives. The NCCP does not reflect changes in Nigeria’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) or the new climate law. Details of the National Climate Change Programmes are not available. Previously, Nigeria’s main climate policy was set in the National Climate Change Policy Response and Strategy (NCCPRS), passed in 2012 (Department of Climate Change, 2012). The NCCPRS sets broad strategic objectives that cover mitigation, adaptation, climate-related science and technology development, public awareness and private sector participation and strengthening institutions and mechanisms to address climate change. From 2009 to 2020, the Nigeria Vision 20:2020 served as a long-term blueprint that articulated the country’s economic and development strategies including climate objectives; however, many of the targets set forth were not met (National Planning Commission, 2009). Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) for 2017-2020 guided economic development following the country’s 2016 recession triggered by low oil prices (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2017d). The ERGP included several activities to contribute to Nigeria’s environmental and climate strategy, including the Great Green Wall Initative and the issuance of green bonds. A successor to the ERGP, the Medium Term National Development Plan 2021-2025, was approved in November 2021 though only a draft presentation is available (Agba--Attah, 2021; LSE, 2021; Ministry of Finance Budget and National Planning, 2021). According to the draft, the new plan prioritises the implementation of the Climate Change Bill, which it says will spur the development of decarbonisation pathways (Ministry of Finance Budget and National Planning, 2021). In the short- term, the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP), released in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, includes measures to support the installation of solar home systems and the promotion of domestic gas utilisation (Economic Sustainability Committee, 2020). Nigeria submitted its NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2017 (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2017f). Nigeria’s NDC sets unconditional and conditional greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets for 2030. To achieve these targets, Nigeria developed an CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 8
implementation roadmap as well as sectoral action plans for the agriculture, industry, oil and gas,
power and transport sectors, but these documents are not publicly available (FME, 2017).
In July 2021, Nigeria submitted its NDC update, with a strengthened target and a number of
progressive revisions (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2021). The update expanded the greenhouse
gases covered to include HFCs and now considers mitigation measures in the waste sector. The
update reaffirmed the unconditional target to reduce emissions 20% below business as usual (BAU)
and increased the conditional target to reduce emissions from 45% below BAU to 47% by 2030.
Nigeria received support from the UNDP and NDC Partnership for the NDC update process, including
developing mitigation actions in the waste sector, engaging the private sector, and building sub-
national capacities (NDC Partnership, n.d.). Nigeria submitted its 2050 Long-term Vision (LTV) to the
UNFCCC in December 2021 (DCC, 2021a). The 2050 Vision sets the aim of cutting emissions by 50%
by 2050 and moving towards net zero emissions (targets consistent with the updated NDC, but not
the Climate Change Act or recent Presidential announcements). This Vision in the first step in
developing a long-term decarbonisation strategy, which Nigeria will work on in 2022 (DCC, 2021b).
National Council on Climate Change (“the Council”)
The new climate change law, passed in November 2021, establishes the National
Council on Climate Change to be headed by the President and further include the
Vice-President, key ministers, the National Security Advisor, and the Governor of
the Central Bank of Nigeria. The Council will oversee implementation of the
National Climate Change Action Plan.
Federal Ministry of Environment (FME)
The FME houses the Department of Climate Change and is the ministry
responsible for climate change action in Nigeria.
Department of Climate Change
The Department, within the FME, is the lead climate change agency in Nigeria,
mandated with national implementation of the UNFCCC and any other legally
binding agreement for implementing climate change activities. Implementation
of the Climate Change Act and establishment of the Council may impact the
responsibilities of the Department.
Key
Institutions Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (ICCC)
The ICCC was established to promote engagement on Nigeria’s climate response
across sectors. Stakeholders represented including sectoral ministries, other
government bodies, civil society organisations, and academic and research
instituions. It is unclear if the establishment of the Council under the Climate
Change Act may affect the operation of the ICCC.
National Council on Environment
The National Council on Environment is comprised of environmental stakeholders
across all levels of government that meets annually to discuss solutions to
environmental issues in Nigeria.
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 9Energy Transition Plan (2021)
Nigeria has announced the adoption of an Energy Transition Plan which lays out
a roadmap to achieve its net zero target. The plan is not yet publicly available.
2050 Long-Term Vision (LTV) for Nigeria (2021)
Nigeria’s Long-Term Vision (LTV), submitted to the UNFCCC as Nigeria’s Long-
Term Strategy, aims to reduce the current level of emissions by 50% by 2050 and
move towards net-zero emissions across all sectors. The LTV includes sectoral
targets and measures.
Revised National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) and the National Climate
Change Programmes for Nigeria (2021)
The revised NCCP was approved in June 2021 along with a programmatic plan of
action, replacing the 2012 climate policy (described below). The NCCP outlines
sectoral policy measures for mitigation and adaptation, as well as enabling
conditions and means of implementation needed.
Medium Term National Development Plan (2021-2025)
This MTNDP is the successor to the ERGP and was approved in November 2021,
though only a draft presentation is available. According to the draft, the plan
prioritises the implementation of the Climate Change Act, which it says will spur
the development of decarbonisation pathways.
National Action Plan on Gender and Climate Change for Nigeria (2020)
The Action Plan aims to mainstream gender considerations in national climate
change processes to guarantee inclusivity in climate change initiatives,
programmes and policies.
Key Plans &
Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) (2020)
Strategies
The ESP is Nigeria’s stimulus plan in response to COVID-19. The ESP proposes key
projects including the installation of solar home systems and the promotion of
domestic gas utilisation.
Sectoral Action Plans for Nigeria’s NDC to the UNFCCC (2017)
Nigeria adopted five sectoral action plans (agriculture, power generation,
industrial energy efficiency, oil and gas, and transport) to support
implementation of its first NDC.
Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) (2017-2020)
The ERGP was adopted following Nigeria’s 2016 recession to promote sustainable
economic development and includes multiple climate-related projects.
National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIIMP) (2015)
The NIIMP serves as a blueprint for infrastructure development and investment
for the period 2014-2043.
National Climate Change Policy Response and Strategy (2012)
The NCCPRS is Nigeria’s main climate strategy guiding mitigation and adaptation
efforts in the country as well as climate-related R&D, public awareness, private
sector participation and institutional capacity development. Revised in 2021.
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 10Nigeria’s First Nationally Determined Contribution - 2021 Update
The NDC update reaffirmed the government’s commitment to the original
unconditional mitigation target of 20% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030
and slightly increased reductions of the conditional mitigation target from 45%
to 47% below BAU by 2030. The update expanded gas coverage to include HFCs
and mitigation measures now include the waste sector. The update provided a
revised business as usual scenario, about half the level of the original.
Net Zero Target
The 2021 Climate Change Act includes a net zero target for 2050 to 2070 and
President Buhari announced at COP26 that Nigeria intends to achieve net zero by
2060. There is uncertainty around when Nigeria aims to reach net zero.
National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP) (2015)
Targets The NREEEP targets renewable energy capacity (including large hydro) of 8 GW
by 2020 and 23 GW by 2030; however, the 2020 was not met. The policy also
includes technology-specific targets for wind, solar, biomass, small hydropower
and large hydropower.
Electricity Vision: 30-30-30
Nigeria aims to generate 30% of its power from renewable energy by 2030.
Climate Change Act (2021)
In November 2021, Nigeria passed the Climate Change Bill. The new law sets a net
zero target for 2050 to 2070 and provides an overarching legal framework for the
achievement of Nigeria’s climate goals.
Other Regulations
Market Based Pricing Regime for Premium Motor Spirit Regulations (S.I.
No. 12 of 2020)
The regulations removed the price cap on petrol; however, the implementation
of this regulation is unclear.
Flare Gas (Prevention of Waste and Pollution) Regulations (S.I. No. 9 of
2018)
The 2018 regulations provide the legal basis for the Nigerian Gas Flare
Commercialisation Programme, introduced a new payment regime for gas
Key Laws & flaring based on the “polluter pays” principle, and put the obligation of data
reporting on producers.
Regulations
National Building Energy Efficiency Code (BEEC) (2017)
The BEEC sets minimum energy efficiency standards for new buildings in
Nigeria.
Regulations on Feed-In Tariff for Renewable Energy sourced electricity in
Nigeria (2015)
The 2015 regulations aim to stimulate investment in renewable energy,
targeting 2000 MW of renewable energy by 2020, excluding large hydropower.
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 11National assessment
2.1 Political commitment
Political commitment
High-level government leadership Quality of government decision making
Transiting to a zero emissions society has not been a top priority for Nigeria; however, recent actions
by the Buhari administration and the National Assembly indicate that decarbonisation may be moving
up on the domestic agenda. In late 2021, Nigeria adopted a net zero target and President Buhari signed
the long-awaited Climate Change Bill into law. There is some support from key figures for mitigation
actions, like the Vice President’s support of the renewable energy target. Time will tell whether these
developments mark a real shift.
Climate change does not play a significant role in party politics in Nigeria, which is typically centered
around addressing security, corruption and economic reform. However, there have been no substantive
rollbacks in climate policies, and passage of the Climate Change Bill marks a positive shift in Nigeria’s
political landscape. Pervasive corruption, particularly in the oil and gas sector, is a risk to the transition
and impedes the government’s ability to respond to climate change.
High-level government leadership can be a driving force for stimulating economy-wide
transformational changes and increasing climate mitigation ambition through clear strategy setting
and sending effective policy signals.
Political leadership in the country faces other high priority challenges such as addressing security
threats and corruption and ensuring economic recovery, so climate change is not a top priority;
however, recent actions by the Buhari administration indicate climate change may be moving up in
the domestic agenda. At COP26, Buhari delivered a speech committing to net zero by 2060 (Varin,
2021). Shortly after, Buhari signed the long-awaited Climate Change Bill into law, after rejecting a
previous version in 2019 (Okereke & Onuigbo, 2021).
Time will tell whether the net zero commitment marks a shift in the Buhari administration’s approach
to climate change, which, historically, has been mixed. Prior to COP26, Buhari had spoken of the need
for action on climate change; but not of the need to transition to a zero emissions society (Buhari,
2015; UN News, 2018). Reference to climate action is also absent from key national speeches, like his
Independence Day address (The State House, 2020). Further, the President refused to approve the
2019 version of the Climate Change Bill, citing duplication of ministerial functions and cost (Adeniran,
2020). Buhari and his administration have also emphasized the role of gas in their energy transition,
declaring 2021-2030 the Decade of Gas (Anyaogu, 2021). Ramping up investment in capital-intensive
natural gas infrastructure increasingly exposes Nigeria to stranded asset risks (Climate Action Tracker,
2017). Still, some of the initiatives Buhari supported earlier in his presidency, like implementing the
Soverign Green Bonds programme, a youth tree planting initiative, diversification of the energy
sector, expanding the rail network and the Great Green Wall initative, are likely to reduce emissions
(The Premium Times, 2019).
Within the cabinet, there is limited support for the transition to a zero emissions society and
ministries develop policies that are not in line with such a transition. For example, the Federal Ministry
of Power and the Ministry of Mines are working to develop Nigeria’s coal sector (Daily Trust, 2019).
This is in line with the 2018 draft revised National Energy Policy which calls for a “resuscitation of the
coal industry” and targets 30% coal generation in the power mix by 2030, but not with the transition
to a zero emissions society (Energy Commission of Nigeria, 2018).
There are some positive signs. In some of his public remarks prior to passage of the Climate Change
Act, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo had already started explicitly discussing the concept of a net zero
transition (Vanguard, 2021). The Vice President is also supportive of Nigeria’s renewable energy
target, but has also expressed concerns over restrictions on international finance for gas projects
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 12(Ofikhenua, 2021; Vanguard, 2021). Nigeria is also part of the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action, which agreed to align policies and practices to the Paris Agreement (Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action, n.d., 2019). While some climate-related actions were included in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), the country’s economic plan in response to the 2016 recession, and the more recent Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP), in response to COVID-19, climate mitigation was not a key lens for these plans (Economic Sustainability Committee, 2020; Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2017d). It is doubtful that the current lead agency on climate change, the Department of Climate Change (the Department) housed within the Federal Ministry of Environment (FME), has the power to drive action across government. The Department’s mandate is to “coordinate activities towards national implementation of the Climate Change Convention, its Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.” It was established in 2013 when it was upgraded to a department from the Special Climate Change Unit (SCCU) (Ati & Abaje, 2018). While details are limited, the Climate Change Act includes provisions to establish the National Council on Climate Change (“the Council”). One role of the Council will be to help the FME coordinate implementation of sectoral targets and guidelines to achieve Nigeria’s climate goals. The Council will also have an elevated standing as it will be chaired and co-chaired by the President and Vice President, respectively. In discussing the significance of the new Climate Change Bill and establishment of the Council, the sponsor of the bill described the importance of having the President chair the Council to circumvent a culture where more influential ministers would “snub” meeting invitations from less influential ministers (The Guardian, 2021). The Council will also be served by a Secretatiat headed by a Director General situated in the Presidency that can push for action to get things done (Uwaegbulam & Gbonegun, 2021). The quality of government decision making at the highest levels is a key factor in implementing ambitious climate policies as national governments provide resources and direction for lower levels of government and can stimulate horizontal dynamics through mainstreaming, lesson-drawing, and cooperation (Jänicke et al., 2015). There have been no substantive rollbacks of climate policies as governments have changed. The National Climate Change Policy and Response Strategy (NCCPRS) was adopted by the former President Goodluck Jonathan. However, climate change was largely absent from key plans and programmes during his administration, such as his Transformation Agenda that guided economic development for most of his term (2011-2015) (National Planning Commission, 2011). Prior to the recent flurry of activity from the Buhari administration, there appeared to be little change in the priority status of climate action across administrations. While, mitigation-related measures have been more prominent in some Burhari administrative policies such as the ERGP, the transition did not seem to be a priority for the government. Like Jonathan, Buhari had not passed earlier versions of the Climate Change Bill when this legislation was presented to him, most recently in 2019 (EnviroNews Nigeria, 2019b). However, in 2021, the Buhari administration approved a revised National Climate Change Policy, submitted an updated NDC with a strengthened mitigation target and a 2050 Long-Term Vision to the UNFCCC, and signed the 2021 Climate Change Bill enshrining a net zero target into law (Department of Climate Change, 2021b). There is little evidence of climate change playing a significant role in party politics in Nigeria. Across the last two elections in 2015 and 2019, political debate centered around security, corruption and economic reform. Neither of the two major parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and the main opposition, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), discuss climate change in their online manifestos. However, the APC’s manifesto does show support for mitigation activies, such as renewable energy, tree planting, and the end of gas flaring (APC, n.d.; PDP, n.d.). In the National Assembly, members of both the APC and PDP have sponsored climate change or mitigation-related pieces of legislation in the National Assembly showing some cross-party support for climate litigation (PLAC, 2017a, 2017b, 2019, 2021c, 2021a, 2021b). The quality of government decision-making is impaired by widespread corruption in Nigeria. The country scores poorly on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index and polling data shows that many Nigerians believe at least some officials in all levels of government are corrupt (Afrobarometer, 2021; Transparency International, 2021). CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 13
Nigeria’s oil sector, the largest source of government revenue, is particularly susceptible to corruption. The state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has a long history of allegations of withholding taxes, misappropriating funds and other illicit dealings (Bala-Gbogbo & Osae-Brown, 2020; Page, 2018). Government officials are also often implicated in oil scandals (Page, 2018; The Premium Times, 2020). In one high profile case, the OPL 245 oil block scandal, energy companies Shell and Eni allegedly paid USD 1.1 billion to Nigerian government officials to secure rights to the offshore oil block (Pace, 2019; Shell and ENI on Trial, n.d.). Shell and Eni were acquitted by an Italian court in March 2021, though it remains unclear whether the verdict will be appealed, and related legals cases are ongoing (Global Witness, 2021; Sahara Reporters, 2021b). The oil block’s licence expired in May 2021, though Eni has applied to have this converted to an Oil Mining Licence which would allow development of the block (Sahara Reporters, 2021a). For decades, Nigerian goverments have attempted to reform the oil sector. After 20 years of trying to pass a Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), the National Assembly passed the PIB in July 2021 (Ene, 2018; Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2021; Iroanusi, 2021; Thomas, 2020). The PIB is expected to improve transparency and accountability in the sector, though considerable disagreement on key provisions remain (Esiedesa, 2021; Iroanusi, 2021). Environmental groups criticised the PIB for including exemptions that allow gas flaring to continue, and the use of gas flaring fines for more gas investments rather than host community development or environmental remediation (EnviroNews Nigeria, 2021). Corruption can impede the government’s ability to adopt climate meaures. For example, civil society groups often oppose efforts to remove fossil fuel subsidies, arguing instead that eliminating corruption should be the focus of any action (BudgIT, 2019; Olawoyin, 2021b). It also impacts other sectors key to the transition to a zero emissions society (Page, 2018). For instance, corruption has left Nigerian forests particularly vulnerable to illegal logging, stunted efforts to improve power sector performance and expand access, and plagued sustainable development and environmental initatives (Ikuomola et al., 2016; Olugbode, 2020; Page, 2018). There are allegations that widespread public sector corruption facilitates illegal trade in the timber industry (Agency Report, 2017; Business Wire, 2018; CITES, 2018; Environmental Investigation Agency, 2017; Lynch & O’Grady, 2017). The Buhari administration has made some progress on its promises to reform corruption more broadly, such as creating a single treasury account for government revenue, biometric identification systems in banks and establishing the Presidential Advisory Committee against Corruption (Musser, 2019). However, many criticise Buhari’s anti-corruption campaign as being selective, targeting his opposition while showing leniency to his supporters (Igwe, 2020; Mbah, 2019; Musser, 2019). Overall, we rank Nigeria’s quality of government decision making on climate as neutral due to the significant challenges presented by widespread corruption despite positive scoring on the Burhari administration’s continuity and progression of climate strategies. CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 14
2.2 Institutional Framework
Institutional framework
Effective Knowledge Adequate
Coordination Infrastructure resources
Effective coordination across Nigerian ministries and agencies at all levels of government is currently
limited. As a result, climate change is not consistently mainstreamed into policy plans and targets.
Meetings of the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (ICCC), a key coordinating mechanism
established to promote engagement on Nigeria’s climate response across sectors, have been
intermittent and ad hoc. The creation of the National Council on Climate Change under the 2021
Climate Change Act is expected to improve coordination.
Nigeria does not have a bespoke entity to provide advice and analysis on transition policies, and
existing organisations have done little work in this area. However, the government is engaging with
national and international organisations to developt decarbonisation pathways as it turns its 2050
Long-Term Vision into an implementable strategy. The country regularly works with international
organisations to support the policy development process, though it is difficult to gauge the extent to
which the government considers any advice received.
Capital and resource constraints are a serious impediment for Nigeria. Resource allocation for
mitigation measures has not been consistent in recent years. The Department of Climate Change is
reliant on external consultants for many tasks, which impedes capacity building and institutional
learning over time.
It is unclear how the Climate Change Act will impact Nigeria’s institutional framework; however,
implementation of key provisions has the potential to improve governance structures for climate
action and achieving Nigeria’s net zero ambitions.
Effective coordination across ministries and agencies as well as with sub-national governments
affects the ability of actors to align overarching climate policy targets efficiently and consistently.
Effective coordination across Nigerian ministries and agencies at all levels of government is currently
limited; however, the creation of the Council under the 2021 Climate Change Act is expected to
improve coordination. The Department of Climate Change is responsible for coordinating climate
change policy across the federal government as well as with the states. One responsibility of the
Council will be to support the FME, underwhich the Department is housed, in coordinating
implementation of the National Climate Change Action Plan, which should be developed under the
Act (Okereke & Onuigbo, 2021).
At the national level, the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (ICCC) is a key coordinating
mechanism, established to promote engagement on Nigeria’s climate response across sectors and
increase participation by stakeholders. Sectoral working groups for energy, industrial processes and
product use (IPPU), agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU), and waste report to the ICCC.
Stakeholders represented in the ICCC include sectoral ministries, other government bodies, civil
society organisations, and academic and research institutions. As the text of the Climate Change Act
is not yet available, it remains unclear how it may affect the duties or powers of the Department and
the ICCC, but one hopes that the higher level of political engagement particularly through the Council
will result in better inter-ministerial coordination.
While the ICCC is meant to meet quarterly, meetings have been intermittent and ad hoc, with limited
information on recent activities (DCC, 2017; FME, 2017).
At the sub-national level, the Department coordinates climate policies with subnational governments
through Climate Change Desk offices in all states and the Federal Capital Territory, housed in their
respective state environmental ministries (Akubuike, 2020). Oversight functions are passed down to
the state desk offices through the ICCC (DCC, 2017). Capacity-building workshops have been held
with these units; however the Department’s budget for these activites has fluctuated and dropped
significantly in recent years, which may impact the effectiveness of coordination (DCC, 2020b; Federal
Republic of Nigeria, 2019b, 2019a, 2020a; Thomas-Odia, 2021). The National Council on Environment,
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 15comprised of environmental stakeholders across all levels of government, meets annually and serves as a forum for sub-national actor coordination (VON, 2021). Within some state governments, there are higher level climate institutions, such as the Cross River State Ministry of Climate Change and Forestry and the Delta State Ministry of Environment’s Climate Change Department. In 2008, Lagos State established a climate change unit (now department) within the Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources and in 2021, adopted a five-year climate plan (2020-2025) to put Lagos on a pathway to zero carbon by 2050 (Ministry of Environment and Water Resources, 2021). Further, the version of the Climate Change Bill transmitted to the Senate included the provision to establish a Secretariat to the Council consisting of six zonal coordinators and 36 State Directors to serve as technical and administrative arm (Onuigbo, 2021). It is unclear whether this provision is in the approved bill. Nigeria has made some efforts to mainstreaming climate change across ministries and align policy development, but significant work remains in this area. The sponsor of the Climate Change Bill once noted that when meetings on climate change are called, bosses would send employees who have stepped out of line to the climate change unit as a form of punishment (The Guardian, 2021). Evidence of alignment with climate policies is uneven across sectoral plans. Various sector policies include some degree of climate considerations. The Agriculture Promotion Policy (2016 – 2020) developed by the Federal Ministry for Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) includes policy objectives for the adoption of climate smart agriculture (FMARD, 2016). Nigeria has also adopted multiple policies and plans to develop renewable energy and energy efficiency, but targets set in these documents have not been met (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2016; IEA, 2013; IRENA, 2020b; Ministry of Power, 2015). In the transport sector, there is some evidence the government is encouraging a modal shift from road to rail. The ERGP includes the construction of two new rail lines and Nigeria’s Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan includes USD 75bn for rail transport, although the plan allocates more than four times this amount for roads (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2017d; National Planning Commission, 2015). Other sectoral policies are not consistent with the transition to a zero emission society. The 2018 draft revised National Energy Policy aims to rapidly develop coal and sees it providing 30% of the national energy mix by 2030 (Energy Commission of Nigeria, 2018). Perhaps the most striking case of a lack of mainstreaming is the process to adopt the Petroleum Industry Bill. Nigeria is heavily reliant on diminishing oil revenue, with growing debt and deficits (Chinery et al., 2020). A managed decline of the sector is needed to diversify the economy and avoid further financial hardship (Chinery et al., 2020; Toledano et al., 2020). The Petroleum Industry Bill passed into law in July 2021 neither acknowledges the need for an energy transition, nor includes any provisions to facilitate such a transition (EnviroNews Nigeria, 2021; Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2021; Kennedy et al., 2021; Stakeholder Democracy Network, 2020). The PIB includes a provision that would leave open the ability to impose taxes, levies or duties to meet climate targets; however, this provision is written in such a way that it shields the industry from targeted mitigation measures, instead requiring the government to adopt fiscal measures geared to the economy as a whole (Kennedy et al., 2021). It is also telling that the Department of Climate Change was not listed among those invited to present at the two-day public hearing on the Bill in January 2021 (House of Representatives Committee, 2021). Developing and updating the country’s NDC has helped with improving coordination and mainstreaming. The Department has also collaborated with UNDP to develop sectoral action plans in response to the first NDC for the agriculture, industry, oil and gas, power and transport sectors (FME, 2017). The sectoral plans will be updated after the NDC revision process is complete. Participation of relevant ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) has been promoted through international support as part of the updating process (NDC Partnership, 2021a; SouthSouthNorth, 2019). Another important criterion is the existence and utilisation of a knowledge infrastructure capable of supporting strategic planning and policy development, as this aids in the elaboration and application of decarbonisation analyses in climate policy development. CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 16
Nigeria does not have a bespoke entity to provide advice and analysis on transition policies. At one point, its Climate Change Bill included the establishment of a Technical Advisory Committee to advise on climate change plans and programmes, but the current status of this provision is not known (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2017c). The 2021 NDC update describes Nigeria’s climate information, experts and research institutions as fragmented and notes a lack of training (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2021). Existing organisations have done little work in this area. The National Insititue for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) is a prominent Nigerian think-tank. Established by the government in 1979, NIPSS conducts courses, workshops and seminars for policymakers to support informed national policy (NIPSS, n.d.-a). While there are staff with climate change capacity at the NIPSS, there is a lack of publications on climate change or the transition and no evidence it has supported climate policy analysis in Nigeria (dRPC, 2020; NIPSS, n.d.-b). The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) is another leading Nigerian think-tank established by the government in 1960 (NISER, 2018). As of 2006, NISER has been housed within the National Planning Commission. NISER has done limited work on climate change, but there is an allocation for climate research in the 2021 budget (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2020a). Nigeria has worked with national and international organisations to develop climate plans and governance approach. The Nigerian government has also partnered with the French Development Agency (AFD), the International Relation and Sustainable Development Institute, and the Center for Climate Change and Development (CCCD) at the Alex-Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike (AEFUNAI) in a project aimed at producing country studies analysing decarbonisation scenarios and low-emission development pathways for Nigeria (CCCD AE-FUNAI, 2021b; DCC, 2021b). The project is expected to complement the work done for the Energy Transition Plan and help elaborate on its 2050 LTV. The project is headed by Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, Director of the CCCD, who worked as Head of the Technical Committee that revised the Climate Change Bill. Other examples of policies and plans include the National Action Plan to Reduce Short-lived Climate Pollutants supported by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition; the Sustainabile Energy for All (SE4ALL) Action Agenda supported by the SE4ALL Africa Hub-AfDB, ECOWAS and others; and the 2050 LTV supported by the 2050 Pathways Platform (Akinola, 2020; Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2016, 2019c). Nigeria is also a member of the NDC Partnership, an international coalition working to support climate action and sustainable development. The NDC Partnership is providing support to Nigeria for various aspects of the NDC process (NDC Partnership, 2021b, 2021a). Capital and resource constraints have been impediments for developing countries in the past and remain significant barriers to effective climate governance (Bhave et al., 2016). These contraints are a serious impediment for Nigeria. Adequate resources and capacity need to be made available to implementers, and efficiently used by them, in climate policy processes. The Climate Change Act seeks to establish a new national Climate Change Fund to be administered by the Council. The Council will also play a key role towards mobilising finance for the transition (Okereke & Onuigbo, 2021). There is potential for improvement with the passage of the Climate Change Act, but to date, the availability of resources has been a constraint for Nigeria. The director of the Department of Climate Change has raised a number of resources and capacity contraints faced by the department, including overdependence on external funding, low funding through budget allocation, and lack of adequate office facilities (Uwaegbulam, 2019). Nigeria’s Third National Communication indicates that despite capacity building efforts, the Department lacks the expert capacity to meet reporting requirements under the UNFCCC (Federal Ministry of Environment, 2020). In addition to weak institutional arrangements, described above, GHG inventory management requires a broader pool of national experts. The Department’s Mitigation Division, responsible for reporting and implementation of the Convention, lacks the experts, capabilities and resources needed to make it fully operational (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2018b). CLIMATE GOVERNANCE SERIES NIGERIA 17
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