Commentary A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19?
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Commentary
A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues:
How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19?
DBRS Morningstar DBRS Morningstar Perspective
June 8, 2020
With this year's Mardi Gras celebration welcoming thousands to the city, a full slate of top performers
for the New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival, and anticipation of a new NFL season with the Saints,
Contents New Orleans was poised to have a strong tourist season in 2020. But on March 23, Louisiana Governor
1 DBRS Morningstar Perspective
2 Scenario Analysis
John Bel Edwards announced a statewide stay-at-home order because of the Coronavirus Disease
2 Scenario A: A Recovery Mirroring (COVID-19) pandemic. This caused one of the main foundations of Louisiana’s economy—tourism—to
Katrina come to a complete stop. Not until May 16 did the city finally begin Phase One of reopening, allowing
4 Scenario B: A Recovery Faster Than
Katrina takeout and delivery service for restaurants and dine-in service with a restriction of only 25% of
5 Scenario C: A Recovery Slower Than restaurant capacity. Businesses excluded from the reopening include casinos and venues for
Katrina
entertainment and events.
8 New Orleans CMBS Hotel Loans
10 Looking Ahead
In contrast to other cities and states affected by the coronavirus outbreak, New Orleans has experienced
this type of extreme business interruption before: Hurricane Katrina, the tropical storm that devastated
Tess Hannum
Associate Credit Analyst the city in 2005. Looking to Katrina could provide further insight into the potential economic damage
North American CMBS being caused by the pandemic and timeline for recovery. Despite weakening to a Category 3 hurricane
+1 312 244-7832
tess.hannum@dbrsmorningstar.com
from a Category 5 before making landfall, Katrina ravaged much of the Gulf Coast. Estimates place the
economic damage related to the storm at around $160 billion, with thousands of residents displaced
Steven Jellinek
either temporarily or permanently.
Vice President, Head of Research
North American CMBS
+1 312 244-7908 As New Orleans struggles to open back up after the coronavirus shutdown, several factors suggest that
steven.jellinek@dbrsmorningstar.com
the city will likely see an economic recovery under a timeline similar to what it experienced after Katrina.
Dan Kastilahn Mayor Cantrell’s predication of limited, or potentially no, large events in New Orleans in 2020 increases
Senior Vice President the likelihood of a comparable economic rebound to Katrina. Further, we expect eventholders to stay
North American CMBS
+1 312 332-9444 away because of safety issues regarding large gatherings and to not hold conventions or events until a
dan.kastilahn@dbrsmorningstar.com vaccine is readily available, which appears to be on a fast track. Consequently, we expect that the
$10.65 billion in New Orleans loans packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) will
Erin Stafford
Managing Director likely face short-term difficulties, especially for the $4.26 billion of loans maturing in 2020 and 2021, but
+1 312 332-3291 we do not expect massive losses.
erin.stafford@dbrsmorningstar.comPage 2 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
Scenario Analysis
We present three possible scenarios for the recovery of New Orleans’ economy against the backdrop of
Hurricane Katrina. While the coronavirus pandemic is much different than a natural disaster, we use the
city’s recovery after Katrina as a reference point.
The first scenario is that the economic recovery in New Orleans will be similar to that of post-Katrina,
including no, or very limited, tourism until the beginning of 2021, with the industry slowly picking up
over the next few years.
The second scenario is that New Orleans will recover faster than post-Katrina, with some tourism and
visitors this fall and a full slate of spring events in 2021.
The third scenario is that New Orleans will have a slower recovery than post-Katrina, with no events for
the rest of 2020 and expected cancellations for large events into 2021 and possibly 2022. Large events
for 2021 may be canceled or significantly scaled down for the next two to three years, further limiting
visitor numbers more than post-Katrina.
With each scenario, we consider how these timelines affect loans maturing in 2020 and 2021 and how
the overall market for loans in New Orleans will be affected by shifts in the city's tourism industry.
Scenario A
A Recovery Mirroring Katrina
In 2004, before Hurricane Katrina hit, New Orleans welcomed 10.1 million visitors. The city hosted
3.7 million visitors in 2006, the first full year after Katrina. Different national associations in late 2005
and early 2006 began recommitting to hold conferences in New Orleans. The city still held Mardi Gras in
2006 despite much of the city being nonoperational. With federal funding of $114.5 billion, the city
began rebuilding over the following 10 years. New Orleans has largely recovered and surpassed pre-
Katrina visitor levels. In 2018, New Orleans welcomed a total of 18.5 million visitors, a 4.3% increase
from 2017. Total visitor spending amounted to $9.1 billion.
When comparing the effects of Hurricane Katrina with that of the coronavirus pandemic, a few key
similarities point to an analogous timeline.
On April 16, 2020, the Mayor of New Orleans, LaToya Cantrell, in an interview with Wolf Blitzer,
predicted New Orleans was unlikely to host large gatherings or events until 2021. This left national
sports teams, festival organizers, and small businesses with many questions. Directly following Mayor
Cantrell’s statements, organizers of Voodoo Fest, a music festival that takes place during Halloween
each year, canceled its event for 2020, with Essence Fest following suit.Page 3 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
Mayor Cantrell’s predication of limited, or potentially no, large events in New Orleans in 2020 increases
the likelihood of a comparable economic rebound to Katrina. Few event organizers or tourists are likely
to go against the mayor’s word, as she holds much of the decision-making power over which events can
be held in New Orleans. Mayor Cantrell stated in an April 14 press conference, in reference to large
festivals and events, that “all of that should be pushed back, period” with “absolutely no large events as
it relates to the year of 2020” (nola.com).
Mayor Cantrell has not given specific guidance on whether fans will be allowed at Saints games yet,
probably reflecting the fact that the NFL still has not made a decision. The Saints, along with the rest of
the NFL, has released its schedule for the upcoming season and begun selling tickets to those games.
The Saints season is one of the key drivers of tourism and large events in New Orleans during the fall,
which is typically a slower tourist season compared with spring. The fall is also anchored by large
national association events, weddings, individual tourists, and festivals like Voodoo Fest. Losing revenue
from what should have been a strong spring and fall could close, or severely hurt, many businesses.
However, if they emulate the response to Katrina, businesses could try to hold out until Mardi Gras kicks
off the 2021 spring festival and tourist seasons. As the coronavirus pandemic has not affected the
physical infrastructure of hotels, businesses, or venues, these businesses should quickly be able to get
up and running for spring.
A study of business reopenings after Katrina by Tulane University geographer and Associate Dean
Richard Campanella noted the percentage of local businesses and regional and national chains that
opened back up after the hurricane. Six months post-hurricane, 75% of locally owned independent
businesses had reopened, 66% of regional chains, and 59% of national chains. Of the 56 new businesses
that opened after Katrina, 92% were owned by local New Orleanians. New Orleans businesses are
accustomed to business interruptions and resilient enough to open quickly after a disaster.
For a timeline mirroring that of Hurricane Katrina, the tourism industry in New Orleans would begin to
welcome visitors back in spring 2021. Ultimately, a recovery like post-Katrina would be similar more in
regard to short-term, not long-term, effects. New Orleans is likely to, as with Katrina, host events in the
spring of 2021. However, it is unlikely to mirror the post-Katrina economy, which took almost 10 years to
reach its previous peak. After a treatment or vaccination plan for the virus is implemented, and people
feel comfortable traveling again, New Orleans is probably going to remain a popular destination for
weddings, events, music festivals, and other events. A recovery taking 10 or more years is unlikely under
any scenario.Page 4 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
Scenario B A Recovery Faster Than Katrina
In a faster-than-post-Katrina recovery scenario, the New Orleans economy would open in the second
half of 2020. Such a scenario would depend on the government allowing events to take place and
whether businesses, restaurants, and hotels take appropriate measures to limit the virus’ spread and
protect visitors. A faster reopening of the economy compared with post-Katrina may necessitate
widespread testing, contact tracing, and possibly a vaccine. Drug manufacturer Moderna has continued
work on a vaccine and announced that a third phase of the trial would begin in July, which includes
administering the vaccine to thousands of healthy people. Moderna’s Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Tal Zaks,
stated on May 18 that if these trials perform positively, use of the vaccine at limited quantities could be
available by the end of this year or early 2021. While discussing the amount of vaccine doses available,
Dr. Zaks mentioned that Moderna is "doing [its] best to make it as many millions as possible" (New
York Times).
After Katrina, most hotels and restaurants were uninhabitable. Now, however, eventholders are staying
away because of safety issues surrounding large gatherings and may not hold conventions or events
until a vaccine is readily available. Many national associations have canceled or held their events
virtually this year, but it is unclear whether that will continue into 2021.
A faster recovery could limit the deterioration in New Orleans hotel loans. For loans backed by hotels, a
faster timeline for a return to normalcy is of heightened importance. A cancellation for most or all fall
events would leave many hotels well below normal occupancy rates, as well as result in lost revenue
from events hosted on hotel premises, like conventions or weddings. If some events—for example,
Saints games—are held, this could help ease some of the hotel industry’s pain.
The hotel industry has seen a slowdown in large events being held in New Orleans over the past three
years. In 2012 and 2013, the city benefited from hosting major events, including a Super Bowl and
college football and basketball championship games. In 2020, New Orleans held the college football
championship but otherwise does not have a large national sporting event scheduled until Super Bowl
LVIII in 2024.
Hotels in New Orleans also must compete with short-term rentals offered on platforms like Airbnb that
now make up around 3.5% of total room nights in New Orleans. Though occupancy has been going up
during peak tourist seasons, room rates have stayed mostly stagnant. However, there are strong
indicators for future success. The recently renovated terminal at Louis Armstrong New Orleans
International Airport has helped expand international flight capacity and enhanced the overall visitor
experience with new restaurants and shops within the terminal. These improvements will help morePage 5 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
visitors travel to New Orleans and have a better experience. Once the renovations on the Ernest N.
Morial Convention Center are finished, there will be more space available downtown for larger national
conventions that may have been constrained by the current capacity of space in the city's center.
There are unique differences between the recovery post-Katrina and the struggles of opening the state
back up after the coronavirus shutdown. During and after Katrina, the nation’s full attention was on
New Orleans. The federal government ultimately provided $114.5 billion in aid. The coronavirus,
however, has affected many communities across the country. Though New Orleans benefits from being
a major city, it is no one’s sole focus and thus not the sole recipient of federal or humanitarian aid.
Louisiana received $1.8 billion in the federal stimulus package focused on coronavirus relief. With local
officials like Mayor Cantrell already predicting a limit on large events until 2021, it is unlikely New
Orleans’ tourism sector will start up again more quickly than it did after Katrina.
Scenario C A Recovery Slower Than Katrina
The Mardi Gras festivities celebrated earlier this year have widely been suspected of accelerating the
number of coronavirus cases in New Orleans. Twelve days before the end of Mardi Gras, on Fat Tuesday,
February 25, there were only 13 people across the U.S. who had contracted the coronavirus. By
March 16, there were 136 cases in New Orleans and three deaths. However, certain key attributes of
New Orleans—its compact and dense nature, its port that connects to much of the country and world,
and its popularity with tourists—would have likely translated into the virus' quick spread even without
Mardi Gras. The festival acted not as the sole spreading event but as an accelerant in an already-
vulnerable location.
Mardi Gras in 2021 will be an important symbol of how New Orleans has recovered. In Mayor Cantrell’s
previously mentioned interview with Wolf Blitzer, she stated, “We have to look at the data. Based on
that, I just don’t see us being able to host [events] . . . for the year of 2020. Let’s look at 2021.” Mardi
Gras, which will culminate on Fat Tuesday on February 16, 2021, might be one of the first instances of
large gatherings of people since the outbreak and is crucial to the city's and state's economy: The
danger of this event in terms of the virus matches its importance to the city. Tourists from all over the
U.S. and world gather in large crowds in New Orleans to watch parades and celebrate the season. A
cancellation or attempt at a scaled-back Mardi Gras would devastate restaurant and hotel revenue.
Mardi Gras season also kicks off New Orleans’ peak travel time of February to June, when numerous
music and cultural festivals are held, including the New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival, which drew
450,000 people in 2019. Mayor Cantrell has stated that canceling Mardi Gras in 2021 is “something [the
city has] to think about” and has not ruled out the possibility.Page 6 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
Cancellation of Mardi Gras and spring festivals in New Orleans would economically damage the region.
Many venues, hotels, and restaurants depend on the revenue derived during this peak tourist season.
Missing out on that seasonal revenue two years in a row would likely be insupportable for many
businesses. The last time Mardi Gras was canceled was in 1979 due to police union strikes. Before then,
it had only been canceled for wars.
New Orleans is a city that relies on welcoming large crowds of people. Some tourists come for weekend
vacations, but most visitors are drawn by larger events. If return-to-normal visitor levels are pushed until
late 2021 or 2022, many outstanding hotel loans could be at risk for declining occupancy rates, leading
to large cuts in revenue.
New Orleans lost around 95,000 jobs in the 10 months after Hurricane Katrina. In those 10 months, there
was about $2.9 billion in lost wages. The worst month of losses, November 2005, showed employment
of 517,306, which was 105,300 below November 2004 figures. In the tourism sector alone, there were
22,900 jobs lost and $382.7 million in lost wages.
These losses were mainly related to the destruction of property as well as of the city’s infrastructure. The
property damage also forced thousands to relocate to other cities. Demand for tourism and hospitality
naturally decreased as tourists could not be reasonably accommodated in the months after Katrina.
For March 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the New Orleans-Metairie, Louisiana,
metropolitan statistical area (MSA) with an unemployment rate of 5.6%. In April, New Orleans'
unemployment rate spiked to 18.8%. The city lost 99,900 jobs compared with April 2019 figures, notably
more than the city lost post-Katrina (95,000). Most jobs were lost in the last month, with New Orleans
losing 83,400 jobs from March to April. The leisure and hospitality industry lost 37,700 jobs. The
majority of those jobs came from food services and drinking places, which accounted for 28,000 of the
job losses.
In comparison, the unemployment rate in November 2005, three months after Katrina hit, was 15.5%. By
December 2006, the unemployment rate was down to 3.6%. Following the financial crisis in 2008, New
Orleans experienced higher unemployment rates but not at the same level as those nationally.Page 7 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
Exhibit 1 New Orleans-Metairie, Louisiana, MSA
Note: Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Red = U.S. unemployment rate.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The prolonged restriction on travel and tourist-attracting events clearly accelerated job losses in New
Orleans to a level even higher than Hurricane Katrina's. As May numbers have not been released yet,
New Orleans could still see additional job losses.
Another effect of keeping New Orleans closed is that tourists may shift their demand to other popular
southern cities, including Nashville and Charleston, South Carolina. Though both Charleston and
Nashville have been affected by the coronavirus, they have not seen the same scale of cases as New
Orleans. South Carolina allowed select retail stores to reopen on April 20 and reopened public beaches
on April 21. Tennessee has permitted restaurants to open on April 27 and retail stores on April 29 but
has limited them to 50% capacity.
New Orleans also functions as a starting point for many cruises headed to the Caribbean or Latin
America. Carnival Cruise Line (Carnival) announced on May 4 that it would cancel all cruises leaving
from New Orleans for this summer. Carnival did not provide a date for when it would return to using
New Orleans but said that on August 1, Miami; Galveston, Texas; and Port Canaveral, Florida, will start
servicing ships. Though described as a temporary measure, if cruise lines see a decline in the number of
trips offered, cruise companies could choose to only remain in select cities and stay out of the New
Orleans ports for longer.
If New Orleans continues restrictions and cancels events through 2020 and 2021, tourists and
eventholders will look to other cities for travel. This could permanently affect the tourism industry in
New Orleans and, in particular, severely affect the hotel industry's ability to fill rooms and have
steady revenue.Page 8 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
New Orleans CMBS Hotel Loans
DBRS Morningstar Loan Name Deal ID Balance (USD) Most Recent Year- Status Maturity Date
Rated End DSCR (x)
No Hyatt Regency New Orleans NOHT 2019-HNLA 325,000,000 1.92 Performing 4/9/2021
Yes The Roosevelt New Orleans Waldorf Astoria JPMBB 2015-C31, 152,385,409 1.74 Performing, Specially 8/7/2025
MSBAM 2015-C25 Serviced
Yes JW Marriott New Orleans WFCM 2014-LC18, 81,283,892 2.51 Performing 12/11/2024
WFCM 2015-C27
Yes DoubleTree New Orleans BANK 2019-BNK24 74,000,000 -- Performing 12/11/2029
Yes Windsor Court New Orleans GSMS 2013-GC16 65,668,853 2.14 Performing 10/6/2023
Yes Omni Royal Orleans COMM 2014-UBS2 58,832,383 2.45 Performing, Watchlisted 2/6/2024
Yes Homewood Suites – New Orleans WFRBS 2014-C23 23,267,787 1.87 Performing 8/11/2024
No Holiday Inn French Quarter-Chateau Lemoyne JPMBB 2014-C24 20,415,172 2.65 Performing 10/1/2024
No Marriott Metairie at Lakeway MSC 2019-H7 16,000,000 1.05 Delinquent 6/1/2029
No Hotel St. Marie – New Orleans BANK 2019-BNK20 14,716,638 -- Performing 7/1/2029
New Orleans Loans Maturing in 2020–21
DBRS Morningstar Loan Name Deal ID Balance (USD) Property Type Most Recent Status Maturity
Rated Year-End DSCR (x) Date
No Hyatt Regency New Orleans NOHT 2019-HNLA 325,000,000 Full-Service Hotel 1.92 Performing 4/9/2021
No Whole Foods – Arabella Station MSC 2011-C1 7,738,378 Anchored Retail 1.63 Performing 1/5/2021
No Mid-City Storage & Apartments COMM 2016-COR1 7,459,570 Mixed Use 2.66 Performing 4/6/2021
Yes Summerfield Apartments UBSC 2011-C1 6,285,576 Multifamily 2.02 Performing, Watchlisted 6/5/2021
No Riverlands Shopping Center WFRBS 2011-C4 4,031,366 Anchored Retail 1.27 Performing 5/1/2021
Yes Walgreens2 SCMT 2018-SBC7 435,983 Anchored Retail -- Performing 7/1/2020
No Airline Highway Retail GFCM 2003-1 274,154 Unanchored Retail 1.62 Performing 9/30/2021
Recent New Orleans MSA Delinquencies
DBRS Loan Name Deal ID Balance Property Type Maturity Most Delinquent Description Status
Morningstar (USD) Date Recent
Rated Year-End
DSCR (x)
No New Orleans MOB BBCMS 2019-C4 17,400,000 Office 8/1/2029 30-59 Days Delinquent Delinquent
Portfolio
No Marriott Metairie at MSC 2019-H7 16,000,000 Full-Service Hotel 6/1/2029 1.05 30-59 Days Delinquent Watchlisted, Delinquent
Lakeway
No Holiday Inn Express WFRBS 2014-C19 9,849,781 Limited-Service 2/1/2024 0.94 30-59 Days Delinquent Watchlisted, Delinquent
& Suites – LaPlace Hotel
Yes Moss-Bauer COMM 2014-LC15 8,784,690 Multifamily 2/6/2024 1.07 60-89 Days Delinquent Specially Serviced, Delinquent
Apartments
Yes Hilton Garden Inn – WFCMT 2014-LC16 8,294,632 Limited-Service 4/6/2024 0.84 121+ Days Delinquent Specially Serviced, Delinquent
Covington Hotel
Yes Hampton Inn – MSCI 2015-UBS8 7,668,855 Limited-Service 11/6/2025 1.22 30-59 Days Delinquent Watchlisted, Delinquent
Harvey Hotel
No Holiday Inn Express MSC 2020-L4 6,175,860 Limited-Service 2/6/2030 30-59 Days Delinquent Watchlisted, Delinquent
Chalmette Hotel
No Winn Dixie-New COMM 2013-CCRE9 5,628,597 Unanchored Retail 6/6/2023 90-120 Days Delinquent Specially Serviced, Delinquent
Orleans
No Best Western Plus – BMARK 2018-B1 5,337,482 Limited-Service 12/1/2027 1.49 30-59 Days Delinquent Watchlisted, Delinquent
Chalmette Hotel
Yes Jackson Ave RCMT 2018-4 1,724,036 Multifamily 5/1/2027 60-89 Days Delinquent Delinquent
Apartments
Total 86,863,934Page 9 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
Exhibit 2 Recent New Orleans MSA Delinquencies
Office Multifamily Full-Service Hotel Limited-Service Hotel Unanchored Retail
Source: DBRS Morningstar.
The master servicer placed the $58.9 million Omni Royal Orleans Hotel in COMM 2014-UBS2 on its
watchlist in April because of concerns that the citywide shutdown due to the coronavirus would harm
the property’s operations. The Omni Royal Orleans Hotel, which is a full-service hotel with above-
average property quality in downtown New Orleans, is still shown as performing. The loan, which is
current, posted a 2.45x debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) for 2019 and matures in February 2024.
We are monitoring the Windsor Court New Orleans Hotel (GSMS 2013-GC16). This full-service hotel in
downtown New Orleans is likely to see a large number of cancellations for individual trips and large
conferences and events. In the short term, the property does have a strong DSCR of 2.02x for the
12 months ending September 2019, which gives it some cushion for losses in revenue due to the
downturn in tourism. A prolonged recovery could mean more significant losses for the hotel. Currently,
the loan is still shown as performing and matures in October 2023.
The Roosevelt New Orleans Waldorf Astoria (JPMBB 2015-C31) was transferred to special servicing
on March 23, 2020, for imminent monetary default as a result of the coronavirus and at the borrower’s
request. The servicer noted that they expected the loan to be resolved or foreclosed on
September 30, 2020. The general manager of the Roosevelt New Orleans Waldorf Astoria expressed
concerns about the industry in 2019 to nola.com saying, “I’m a little concerned about the next few
years. Our convention pace looks to be off moving in 2021 and 2022.” He also noted that the increased
number of rooms coming into the market was driving competition at a time when there is also a lower
number of scheduled events. A faster recovery than post-Katrina (Scenario B) could ease some of the
revenue declines, but it is unlikely that enough tourists or visitors would start traveling again to prevent
the loan from continuing in special servicing.Page 10 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
Looking Ahead
In another example of unfortunate timing, the month of June is the beginning of hurricane season. The
2020 hurricane season is predicted to be above average, meaning an increase in the number of tropical
storms and hurricanes, including major hurricanes (i.e., Category 3 or higher). For comparison, Hurricane
Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall. Projections for a normal year include 12
tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The 2020 hurricane season has projections of
14 to 18 tropical storms, seven to nine hurricanes, and three to four major hurricanes. If large storms hit
New Orleans, there could be further strains on the outlook for tourism.
Our three possible recovery scenarios for New Orleans post-coronavirus shutdown mainly depend on
whether events will start being held in 2020, 2021, or into 2022. A faster recovery (Scenario B) will
benefit all outstanding loans, especially those $4.26 billion of loans maturing in 2020 and 2021. A
recovery mirroring post-Katrina (Scenario A) will help outstanding hotel loans, as that scenario would
allow them to welcome guests for the peak tourist season in 2021 and potentially stay in business
through the coronavirus crisis. A slower recovery than post-Katrina (Scenario C) could mean widespread
default or special servicing of outstanding hotel loans in the New Orleans region because of large
declines in occupancy and revenue. Scenario C could also affect multifamily properties, as a large
portion of New Orleans’ citizens work in the tourism or hospitality industry.
Note: All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.Page 11 of 11 A Crescent City Comeback or Bourbon Street Blues: How Quickly Will New Orleans Bounce Back from COVID-19? | June 8, 2020
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