Compendium 5.0 Section Commercial Vehicles

Page created by Christopher Brewer
 
CONTINUE READING
Compendium 5.0 Section Commercial Vehicles
Compendium 5.0
Section Commercial Vehicles
The truck makes the European internal market possible
Land based transport in the EU28 – 1995 =100                                               Land based transport in the EU28 – in billion tkm

    160                                                                                      2500
    150
    140                                                                                      2000

    130
                                                                                             1500
    120
    110                                                                                      1000
    100
                                                                                              500
      90
      80                                                                                         0
             2005

             2012
             1995
             1996
             1997
             1998
             1999
             2000
             2001
             2002
             2003
             2004

             2006
             2007
             2008
             2009
             2010
             2011

             2013
             2014
             2015
             2016
             2017
             2018
                                                                                                     1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

                         Road                 Rail   Inland Waterways    Total                                     Road     Rail    Inland Waterways

 +          ► The merging of the EU triggered an enormous growth in freight transport .
            ► The creation of the internal market fueled growth on road and rail.
            ► More than 70 percent of European freight transport services are provided by trucks.
            ► Drastic impact of the financial crisis in 2008/2009. Only in 2018 the transport performance of the year 2007 was reached again.

Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures 2020

                                                                                                                                           CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge   2
Traffic forecasts for the EU by year 2030
Road traffic will continue to dominate
Traffic capacity in billions of passenger kilometres/tonne-kilometres
             Official passenger traffic forecast                                          Official freight traffic forecast                Prognos freight traffic forecast EU
10.000                     Motorised private transport                      4.000
                           Public road transport                                                                              3.000
                           Rail
 8.000                     Air
                                                                            3.000

                                          5.714                                                                               2.000
 6.000                                                                                                                                                     +23%
                                                                                                                     2.399
                                                                            2.000                         +36%                                                       2.045
                               +17%
                   4.893
 4.000                                                                                          1.764                                        1.658
                               +18%                                                                                           1.000
                                                                            1.000                         +54%
 2.000                                                                                                                                                    +47%
                               +49%        602                                                                        602
                   513                     714                                                  393                                                                   458
                   496                                                                                    +27%                                312
                   527         +69%        888                                                  337                   429                                  +25%
     0                                                                           0                                               0
                   2010                   2030                                                  2010                 2030                    2010                     2030

                                                                                                                                Waterway       Rail     Road

 +         ► There are indications that the 2013 forecast for the EU 27 is outdated. In the period from 2010 to 2015, it assumes growing transport services and clearly
             overestimates the real development.
           ► The Prognos Report does not cover the entire EU, but only 12 countries. This represents about 92 percent of road freight traffic. With the rail and waterway,
             the coverage is worse.
 Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2013; Progtrans, 2016; ; BMVI, Verflechtungsprognose 2030, 2014

                                                                                                                                                      CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge   3
Road traffic by freight group in 2019*
As many percent of the tonnes transported by commercial vehicle...
                                      Secundary materials                        Groupage

                                                        7,6%               7,3%
                  Food and
               luxury foods
                                  12,8%                                                         9,0%   Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

                                                                                                4,0%   Metals and semi-finished products

                                                                                                4,0%   Woods (goods), paper
    Concrete,           12,7%                                                                   2,3%   Vehicles
 plaster, glass
                                                                                                3,3%   Coking and petroleum products
                                                                                                2,1%   Equipment for the transportation of goods
                                                                                                2,1%   Machines and equipment

                                                                                                7,6%   Others

                     Ores,
                     stones and                    25,3%
                     earth
* Without products from the chemical industry (no information for reasons of confidentiality)
Source: Eurostat, 2020

                                                                                                        CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge        4
Truck traffic in Europe – the short distance dominates
 TRANSPORT DISTANCE
 One ton of freight doesn’t travel far in the EU28 by truck
 Average transport distance* in kilometres for all goods groups with a share of more than one percent of traffic – as of 2019

                                          Total goods transported                                                       127
                  Ores, stones and earth, other mining products                             41
                                            Glass, plaster, cement                                          85
                                               Food and beverage                                                                            183
                                 Secondary raw materials; Waste                                        75
                                                         Groupage                                                                                    216
                        Agriculture, forestry and fishing products                                                                    158
     Metals and semi-finished products made therefrom; without…                                                                                      217
          Wood and wooden goods (excluding furniture); Paper,…                                                                                    205
                                                           Vehicles                                                                                              254
                   Coke oven products and petroleum products                                                     103
               Equipment and material for the carriage of goods                                                                 142
               Machines and equipment not otherwise specified                                                                               186

*Total calculated without products of the chemical industry
Source: Eurostat, 2020; own calculations

                                                                                                                                             CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge   5
Road transport plays a central role in Europe
Data for EU28 in 2018 in megatonnes CO2eq
            Total greenhouse gas emissions1)                       Greenhouse gas emissions by                     Road traffic greenhouse gas emissions
                                                                   transport2)

                                      873

                                                                                                                    232 Mt
         1.110                   Total
                               3.953 Mt                   950 Mt                               899 Mt                                               543 Mt

                          503                 517                                                                      113 Mt

                 Energy          Industry             Traffic      Railways             Air transport (domestic)
                                                                                                                        SNfz and buses          Motorbikes
                 Agriculture     Other                             Road                 Inland ship
                                                                   Other                                                Cars                    LNfz
                                                                                                                        Other
1 With   sinks
2) Excluding
           international air and maritime transport
Source: EEA, 2020 (V23)

                                                                                                                                CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge   6
EU Road Transport: Emissions growth especially in the 1990s
In million tonnes CO2EQ
                                                                                                      +
1.000                      +23,0%
                                                                                                          ► The EU wants to reduce emissions
   900                                                                                                      from transport by 30 percent
                                                                                                            between 2005 and 2030.
   800
                                                                                                          ► Emissions from EU road transport
   700                                                                                                      peaked in 2007.
                                         +17,5%
   600                                                                                                    ► Road transport CO2 emissions in the
                                                                                                            EU have fallen between 2007 and
   500                                                                                                      2013 and have been rising again since
                                                                      +23,9%           +58,2%               2013.
   400
                                                                                                          ► LNfz recorded the largest increase in
   300
                                                                                                            emissions but have a relatively small
                                                                                     +55,1%   +2,0%         share of total emissions.
   200                         -1,9%         -2,5%
                                                                          -1,9%
                                                                                                          ► Emissions growth in passenger car
   100
                          +25,4%        +20,5%                   +26,3%                                     traffic was more moderate. Emissions
      0                                                                                                     have stagnated since around 2004
                   Total road traffic     Cars              Heavy trucks und buses    Light trucks          and decreased between 2007 and
                                                                                                            2012. Since 2013 they rise again.
                                             1990    2005      2018

Source: EEA, 2020 (v23)

                                                                                                                     CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge   7
Heavy Commercial Vehicles – Shaped by the Economy
Emissions of heavy commercial vehicles and busses in the EU28; 1990 = 100
130

125

120

115

110

105

100
         1990

                1991

                          1992

                                 1993

                                        1994

                                               1995

                                                      1996

                                                             1997

                                                                    1998

                                                                           1999

                                                                                  2000

                                                                                         2001

                                                                                                2002

                                                                                                       2003

                                                                                                              2004

                                                                                                                     2005

                                                                                                                            2006

                                                                                                                                   2007

                                                                                                                                          2008

                                                                                                                                                 2009

                                                                                                                                                        2010

                                                                                                                                                               2011

                                                                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                                                                             2013

                                                                                                                                                                                    2014

                                                                                                                                                                                           2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                  2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                         2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                2018
Source: EEA, 20120(v23)

                                                                                                                                                                             CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge             8
Light commercial vehicles – Shaped by the economy
Emissions of light commercial vehicles in the EU28; 1990 = 100
170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100
         1990

                1991

                          1992

                                 1993

                                        1994

                                               1995

                                                      1996

                                                             1997

                                                                    1998

                                                                           1999

                                                                                  2000

                                                                                         2001

                                                                                                2002

                                                                                                       2003

                                                                                                              2004

                                                                                                                     2005

                                                                                                                            2006

                                                                                                                                   2007

                                                                                                                                          2008

                                                                                                                                                 2009

                                                                                                                                                        2010

                                                                                                                                                               2011

                                                                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                                                                             2013

                                                                                                                                                                                    2014

                                                                                                                                                                                           2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                  2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                         2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                2018
Source: EEA, 2020 (v23)

                                                                                                                                                                             CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge             9
Light commercial vehicles move into focus
Emissions of new registrations in g CO2/km by New European Driving Cycle
                                                 Actual values 2009 – 2018                                                    Target values 2020 – 2030
250

230
                                                                                                                166           135                         140       103
210

190

170

150

130

110

  90

  70

  50

                                                                                                                2020

                                                                                                                       2021

                                                                                                                                 2022

                                                                                                                                         2023

                                                                                                                                                  2024

                                                                                                                                                          2025

                                                                                                                                                                   2030
             2009

                                                      2013

                                                                                                  2017
                            2010

                                   2011

                                          2012

                                                                     2014

                                                                                    2015

                                                                                           2016

                                                                                                         2018
                                          USA       EU       Japan          China
* Without diesel vehicles
Source: ICCT, 2020

                                                                                                                                         CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge    10
Light commercial vehicles: In 2018 all manufacturers have undercut their
emissions
I         target
Information for manufacturers with over 50,000 new registrations in the EU28

                                                                         Opel
              Daimler   Ford Werke   Volkswagen        Nissan         Automobile         Renault           FCA Italy   Peugeot            Citroen
 210

 160

 110

   60

   10

  -40
                                      Emissions 2018    Target 2018       Difference to the target of the year 2018
Source: EEA, 2020

                                                                                                                       CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge   11
Tractors: The youngest commercial vehicles in Europe
Commercial vehicle fleets of European countries by age group in percent
 100%
   90%
   80%
   70%
   60%
   50%
   40%
   30%
   20%
   10%
     0%

                                                   Weniger als 2 Jahre               2 bis 5 Jahre           5 bis 10 Jahre            10 bis 20 Jahre            Mehr als 20 Jahre
No Data available for Bulgaria, Greece, Slovakia, France: No use of category "more than 20 years"; Netherlands: Indication only for category: "Less than years”
Source: Eurostat, 2020

                                                                                                                                                                                  CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge   12
Light commercial vehicles: Many old vehicles
Fleet of light commercial vehicles
Commercial vehicles in the countries of the EU
Fleet of commercial vehicles with more than 3.5 t total weight by category of age in percent

 100%
   90%
   80%
   70%
   60%
   50%
   40%
   30%
   20%
   10%
     0%

                                                  Weniger als 2 Jahre               2 bis 5 Jahre           5 bis 10 Jahre            10 bis 20 Jahre            Mehr als 20 Jahre

No information available for Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia; France, Ireland, Luxembourg: No application of category "More than 20 years"; Netherlands: Only for category:
"Less than years"

Source: Eurostat, 2020

                                                                                                                                                                                         CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge                 14
Light commercial vehicles: Alternative drives still at the beginning of the road
Market shares of commercial vehicles with alternative drives in the EU 27 UK - Data in percent

 8,0%

 7,0%

 6,0%

 5,0%

 4,0%

 3,0%

 2,0%

 1,0%

 0,0%

                                                                    ECV-Rechargeable on the mains   Hybrids   Natural gas   Other (LPG+E85)
* No information available for Bulgaria, Croatia, Malta Lithuania
Source: ACEA, 2020

                                                                                                                                              CO2-Kompendium, Elektroautos   15
Only a few vehicles on the road up to now
Only a fraction of the fleet has an alternative propulsion system

  3,0%                                                                               1,4%
                       Shares of alternative drives                                                      Shares of alternative drives in the         1,3%
                       in the stock of passenger cars                                                    stock of light commercial vehicles
  2,5%                                                                  2,4%         1,2%
                       in 2018                                                                           in 2018
                                                                                     1,0%
  2,0%

                                                                                     0,8%
  1,5%
                                                                                     0,6%

  1,0%
                              0,7%                                                   0,4%
                                                                                                  0,3%
  0,5%                                                  0,4%
                0,3%                                                                 0,2%

                                          0,0%                                                                     0,0%           0,0%
  0,0%                                                                               0,0%
               ECV -         Hybrids     Fuel cell   Natural gas   Other (LPG+E85)          ECV - rechargeable    Hybrids        Fuel cell    LPG and natural gas
            Rechargeable                                                                     from the mains
           from the mains

Source: ACEA, 2020

                                                                                                                                 CO2-Kompendium, Elektroautos       16
EU freight transport between 2000 and 2018
Increases in efficiency are obscured by volume growth
Development of energy consumption – Data in terawatt hours (TWh)

                                                                       +
                                                                       ► More efficient vehicles
                                                                         and route planning
                                 195,59                                  compensate for the
                                                                         factors that increase
              258,45
                                                                         consumption.
                                                                       ► Relocation effects
                                               42,88
                                                                         towards the road with an
                                                              105,7
                                                                         additional consumption of
                                                                         almost 34 TWh play a
                                                                         subordinate role to the
                                                                         increase in activity.
          More traffic          Efficiency    Other,          Total
                                 increase    Modal shift      effect

Source: Odyssee Database 2020

                                                                           CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge   17
Integrated approach: future regulation must cover all areas
Estimation from road freight transport
                    Vehicle-related measures                                                              Vehicle operation
                    Vehicle         Trailer           Tyre              Alternative fuels                  Operation         Infrastructure    Fleet renewal
                    Efficient   Maximum size Low-                    Biofuel of the second             Driver training Better           Replacement of Euro
                     engines      allowed (more  resistance                  Kraftstoffe
                                                                         generation                        Route            Infrastructure    0 - III vehicles
                    Aerodynamics transport      tyres                  Synthetic fuels                    planning         Infrastruktur     (ca. 5% additional fleet
                    Driver       volume)       Tyre-pressure          Natural gas (LNG)                 Volume           (Lockouts,        renewal)
   CO2-Emissionen

                     assistance  Aerodynamics   check                                                      utilisation      detours)
                     systems     Lightweight   Super single                                                               Telematics
                                  design         tyre                                                                        systems
                                 Driver                                                                                    Combating
                                  assistance                                                                                 congestion

                                                                                                                                                                               CO2-Emissions
                                  systems
                                                             +                                                 +                                   =
                                          -6%                                      -2,5%                                               -13%                 -21,5%

 +
                      ► An integrated approach avoids rebound effects and can significantly increase the saving effect.
                      ► Various instruments are needed to exploit all potentials.

Source: ACEA

                                                                                                                                               CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge             18
Visible progress in the field test
Scientifically accompanied road test with comparable trucks of different years
depending on the manufacturer on different routes1)
                                                                                                                                                     1   Difference in emissions between      2   Emission reduction per year
                                                                                                                                                         Old and New– total

Daimler                                                                                                                                           -22%                                                               1
                            1996: 436 PS                                2016: 450 PS
DEKRA
                                                                                                                                                                                                   -1,10%            2

Scania                      1992: 500 PS                                2016: 500 PS
                                                                                                                                        -25%                                                                         1

AVL
                                                                                                                                                                                                   -1,04%            2

Volvo                                                                                                                                                      -19%                                                      1
                            1991: 405 PS                                2016: 460 PS
AVL                                                                                                                                                                                                  -0,76%          2

MAN                                                                                                                  -31,5%                                                                                          1
                            1994: 402 PS                                2016: 460 PS
TÜV Süd                                                                                                                                                                                              -1,45%          2

Iveco                                                                                                                                                -21%                                                            1
                            1994: 514 PS                                2016: 571 PS
AVL                                                                                                                                                                                                  -0,95%          2

1) A   Comparison of the reduction performance between the manufacturers is not permitted, because test tracks and environmental conditions (weather etc.) were not standardized.

Source: ACEA, 2017, Reducing CO2 from trucks: progress in practice – Third-party assessment

                                                                                                                                                                                    CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge        19
Turn 3 into 2 – More loading volume saves fuel

  Turn 3 into 2                                                           Low consumption
                                                                          The long truck drives more efficiently than other trucks.
  Two long trucks transport as much load as three standard trucks.        The result: less fuel consumption per charge.

    Standard truck 1          Standard truck 2         Standard truck 3    Conventional articulated trucks

                                                                             16,5 m

                                                                                                                      -10%
                             Loading volume                                                                            CO2
                                                                              Extended articulated trucks
                                          50
       Standard truck 1     100          +50%                                                   17,8 m
                                         100     Long truck 1
       Standard truck 2     100
                                           50
                                         +50%                                                                                          -25%
       Standard truck 3     100           100    Long truck 2
                                                                                                                                        CO2
                                                                                                         Long truck
                                                                                                         25,25 m

             Long truck 1                        Long truck 2                   Route network
                                                                                  long truck

                                                                                                                        CO2-Kompendium, Nutzfahrzeuge 20
You can also read