Council of Canadians Northumberland EVs, You, and the Commons - Carbontakedown.com
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Council of Canadians
Northumberland
EVs, You, and the Commons
Steve Lapp
P.Eng. M.Sc.
Former Professor of Energy Systems Engineering
Technology at St. Lawrence College
Carbontakedown.com
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Forces Driving the
World EV Market
• Worldwide goal of zero GHG by 2050
• Regulations in many countries are
driving GHG reductions in:
– transportation
– electricity generation
– industrial processes
• High performance batteries and
electronics
• You and I
Why would you buy an EV? • You enjoy “fill ups” that are the price of a good latte! • You would enjoy an almost maintenance free car • Shhh….a very quiet car • You are the environmentally conscious consumer, you want to reduce your contribution to Global Warming • You enjoy acceleration! • You want to save money
Common reasons
to not buy an EV
• Upfront cost
• Concerns surrounding range and
charging
• You want 4WD/crossover – 2021!
• Concerns around battery minerals
• Concerns about the energy
required to make an EV
Electric Electric
Motor
Motor
& Power
& Power Electronics
Electronics
Gasoline
Engine
Battery
Battery
Gasoline
BEV PHEV
BEV • Battery • Inverter • Electric Motor • Reducing gears and differential
April 2014
BEV and PHEV Sales • 3.8% of Can. market • 160,000+ Canada wide • 3.2 M pass. Sold in 2020 • 250 M IEA 2030 Projection
We’ll cover: • BEVs available • Range • The Commons • Batteries • GHG Emissions • Economics • Charging
May 2020 BEV 17 models
Battery MSRP
100% Electric Cars Range
kWh (plugndrive)
(BEV) (km) 1000s
Capacity
VW ID4 (CO) 400 77 $56
2021
Chevrolet EUV 402 66 $43
Nissan Ariya (CO) 482 90 $60
Nissan Ariya (CO) 321 65 $52
Ford Mach E (CO) 370 68 $52
Ford Mach E (CO) 483 88 $66
Cadillac Lyric (CO) 482 100 $76
Lucid (TBD) 840 100 $98
Volvo XC40 335 78 $67
Polestar 375 78 $72
29
Tesla Model S 663 100 $115
Tesla Model Y LR (CO) 525 75 $70
Tesla Model X 580 100 $125
Tesla Model 3 SRP 423 75 $53
Tesla Model 3 LR 568 75 $65
Models
Chevrolet Bolt 417 66 $47
Hyundai Kona 415 64 $47
Hyundai IONIQ EV 274 38.3 $39
Kia Niro 2021 385 64 $47
Kia Soul EV (64 kWh) 383 64 $49
Kia Soul EV (39 kWh) 248 39.2 $45
Jaguar I-PACE (CO) 377 90 $94
Nissan Leaf S Plus 363 62 $44
Nissan Leaf SV 240 40 $46
Audi e-tron (CO) 357 95 $88
Porsche Taycan 323 93.4 $121
BMW I3 246 42.2 $45
VW e-Golf (2020) 198 35.8 $40
Mini Cooper S E 177 32.6 $40Range
Pickup trucks
• On mild spring and fall days range will be better than stated on non-highway trips, 400 km could become 450 km • kWh consumption increases with speed3 • Worst day (-25°C, snow) range at 100 kph could be 40 - 50% reduced. • Heat pump EVs better winter range
200 km
10 - 40 min
of charging
300 kmThe Bigger Picture
The Commons Mining Manufacturing
• We humans must virtually eliminate the burning of fossil fuels, that is job one • EVs can address the existential nature of global warming and local pollution, they do not solve every problem! • EVs powered by low carbon energy eliminate the huge environmental impacts of fossil fuel extraction, processing and shipping
• Use your gas or electric car as little as possible. From the global environment perspectives of energy and resource consumption - better to walk, cycle or use clean public transport • There are international efforts and cooperation underway to improve working conditions or find alternate sources of minerals involved with production of electronics and batteries – an option to minimize impacts • There is no option but to reduce GHGs
50 tons • 220,000 km
of GHG vehicle life
due to
gasoline
usage
Manufacturing Worst case larger
energy battery
Ontario electricity
(for 220,000 km)
EV Battery
Base data from 2015
Union of Concerned Scientists – Cradle to
Grave, includes upstream fuel production
emissionsBatteries
Is there enough lithium?
• Economically recoverable reserves
estimated at 53 million tonnes*
• 10 kg Lithium per EV = 5.3 billion
batteries (1.3 B pass. vehicles world)
• Lithium is valuable and batteries will
be recycled
• Ruined climate or responsibly mine
lithium and cobalt?
• Canadian sources??
*U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2018Battery Capacity vs. Age https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/
GHG Emissions
GHG emissions of an EV
depend on what “grid”
you charge from.
Ontario has very low
GHG/kWh
(0.013 to 0.044 kg GHG/kWh avg.*)
*Toronto Atmospheric Fund 2019GHG Emissions per Year by Vehicle Type
10
9
Annual Tonnes of GHG
8
7
6
5
4
3 **
2
1 **
0
20,000 km per year
* 0.04 kg CO2e Ontario grid emissions
** depends on ratio of EV to gas operationICE Vehicle*: 2 - 8 t GHG/year
House: N.G.: 4 - 10 t GHG/year
Flying: YYZ/Paris: 2 t GHG/person
8 - 22 t GHG/year
EV: 0.070 t GHG/year
Ontario 11.3 t GHG/person/year**
**Ontario data 2017 *20,000 km/yearEconomics
Comparing Costs? EVs are: • Quieter • Faster accelerating • Higher standard features (generally) • Minimal to no scheduled maintenance (data shows 50% cost compared to ICE)
EV Incentives in Ontario New: • BEV in Ontario. $5000 • PHEV in Ontario. $2500 (ZEV federal rebate on cars with an MSRP of below $45k, $55k optioned maximum) Used BEV: $1000 rebate from PlugnDrive $1000 Carheaven.ca (scrapped trade in) $2000 Total
Variables March 2021 Data Gasoline Cost 1.25 $/litre Electricity Cost 0.1356 $/kWh Fuel/Elec inflation cost 3.0 % General inflation 2.0 % Annual driving 20,000 km/year ICE annual maintenance 1000 per year BEV annual maintenance 500 per year Resale at 5 years 0.52 % of MSRP Ontario elec emissions factor 0.04 kg CO2/kWh
Gasoline only 200 km BEV 400 km BEV
Hyundai Elantra
Hyundai Kona
Volks Golf EV
Ioniq hybrid
Range Plus
Volks Jetta
Tesla 3 St
Volks Golf
Kona EV
Ioniq EV
Prius
Bolt
5 year energy* $9 $9 $10 $5 $10 $6 $2.5 $2.5 $2.5 $2.5 $2.5
5 year total* $29 $31 $32 $28 $33 $32 $30 $31 $31 $34 $37
5 year GHG t 15 16 18 9 17 10 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
*In $1000’s
5 Year $ Costs*
and GHG EmissionsCharging
Cobourg’s Petro Canada Chargers
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3Charging Connectors
CHAdeMO SAE J1772 SAE Combo
Tesla Level 3 Level 2 (CCS) L 2 & 3
Leaf, Soul I3, e-Golf, Ioniq,
Bolt, Niro, Kona• For BEVs and PHEVs the vast majority of charging will be done at night at your residence, inside or outside (condos?) • At present, on longer trips you will need some apps to access all chargers, but more are taking credit cards • On trips of more than 300 - 400 km you’ll use Level 3 for fee chargers • Charge power (kW) vary by type of car, some cars have more advanced batteries and battery temperature management systems
Level 2 - 240 VAC home charger
Level 3 – 50 kW
Level 3 – 100-350 kWLevel 1 and 2 at Home 200 km = $4 to $6 (gasoline 200 km @ 8 l/100km = $16 to $20) Level 2 Not at Home: 200 km = 4 hours, $1.5/hr = $6
Level 3 Approx. 10 vendors. Power: 20 - 350 kW $0.22 - $0.44/minute 200 km = $16.50 (@40kW) to $9.00 (@70kW) Same $/km as 5 to 8 l/100km gas car
“Plugshare” screen grab
Trip Planning Software (A Better Routeplanner)
Wrap-up
EV User Experience Summary • Majority of charging is done at home unless on a long trip • Preload the apps and put in $ credit • Remote heating and cooling – love it! • Two car household? The electric gets used first, lower operating costs!
EV User Experience Summary • Account for range reduction with extreme weather • Think about charger port location, does it work for you? • Account for range at 10 years old • EVs have near zero scheduled maintenance • BUT - Brake caliper mechanisms rust…..have them preventively maintained
Finally • EVs in Ontario: A solution for your fossil fuel extraction and GHG impacts, not a solution for everything! • For 200 to 400 km range “average” EVs, about the same five and ten year ownership cost as similarly equipped fossil fuel cars • If you want to reduce your GHG footprint substantially, an EV does the job
Thank you for your attention. Questions? lappstve@kos.net Carbontakedown.com
Bolt
Ioniq hybrid
Calcs
new vehicle before tax 47,000 25,251
tax @13% 6,110 3,283
Federal rebate 5,000 0
distance km/year 20,000 20,000
gasoline $/litre n/a 1.25
fuel economy l/100km 6.5 km/kWh 4
kWh electricity 3419
$/year electricity 464
Capital Cost $44,050 $28,533
Insurance/year $1,000 $800
2020 annual energy cost $464 $1,000
2021 annual energy cost $477 $1,030
2022 annual energy cost $492 $1,061
2023 annual energy cost $507 $1,093
2024 annual energy cost $522 $1,126
2025 annual energy cost $537 $1,159
2026 annual energy cost $554 $1,194
2027 annual energy cost $570 $1,230
2028 annual energy cost $587 $1,267
2029 annual energy cost $605 $1,305
5 year energy cost 2461 5309
5 year insurance cost 5000 4000
5 years maintenance 2500 5000
Resale 22906 14837
Total 5 years cash $31,105 $28,005
5 years GHG (tonnes) 0.7 9You can also read
