COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders

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COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
COVID-19

                                            Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 17 April 2020 Version 2.1.
BCG Perspectives
Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
Publication #2 with a focus on:
 • Preparing for the restart

Version: 20 April 2020
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
COVID-19
       BCG Perspectives
       Objectives of this document

                                                                                                                                   Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
       COVID-19 is a global                                      Leaders need to drive an integrated
       societal crisis                                           response to navigate the crisis

       We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak is           It is the duty of health, political, societal, and business
       first and foremost a societal crisis, threatening lives   leaders to navigate through this crisis. A complex
       and the wellbeing of our global community. Society        interplay of epidemic progression, medical response,
       now, more than ever, needs to collaborate to protect      government action, sector impact, and company action
       people's lives and health, manage mid-term                is playing out jointly. This document intends to help
       implications and search for lasting solutions.            leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate
                                                                 the crisis in their own environments. It encourages
                                                                 thinking across the multiple time horizons over which
                                                                 we see the crisis manifesting itself.

Source: BCG                                                                                                                    1
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
Executive Summary | COVID-19 BCG Perspectives

The COVID-19 disease progression continues to be a global challenge to societies, but interventions are starting to show positive effects
• Government measures to mitigate the spread are largely effective in slowing cases (doubling every ~10 days a week ago, to every ~15 days now)
• Testing is increasing, giving more transparency and control; in several countries, this is complemented by digitally enabled contact tracing
• While some countries are extending lockdowns and social separation, a few countries have started to progressively lift restrictions

Impact on sectors and business depends on intensity and shape of the health and economic recovery, especially in an extended fight phase
• Economic indicators and forecasts signal a severe downturn; global equity markets continue to be challenged and unemployment rates are rising

                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
• The last weeks showed a bounce in equity markets and in Total Shareholder Returns (TSR), but credit risks remain in many sectors
• It remains critical to understand the specific context and environment (e.g. geography, sector) to distill implications for future pathways of companies
• There will likely be an extended phase of 'fighting' the virus with many investments to bring forward therapies/vaccines in the next ~12-18 months
• Young consumers are largely worried about financial implications, but share positive sentiment about recovery across many geographies

Navigating the COVID-19 crisis, particularly an extended 'fight' the virus phase requires integrated action by governments and business leaders
• Governments need to ensure that reopening activities are guided by national health, and economic and social priorities, allowing for local adaptation
• Reopening requires careful preparation, for governments as well as business; e.g. Managing for a safe workplace also requires managing risks outside work
• Business leaders and governments can use this crisis as an opportunity to strengthen their cooperation for a united fight against the virus

                  We believe during this crisis, leaders need to be able to think along two dimensions:
         (1)Taking an integrated perspective on health/medical progression, governmental responses, societal
                   reactions, and economic implications to understand business/sector impacts and
            (2)Thinking multi-timescale (the now, near, and long-term future—in a flatten-fight-future logic).

Source: BCG                                                                                                                                                  2
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
COVID-19 will be a journey with three distinct phases requiring
an integrated perspective

                       Flatten                                               Fight                                         Future
Typically, the initial phase after a pandemic          Finding paths to collectively fight the virus,   Disease controlled through vaccine/cure/
outbreak – goal is to urgently limit number            restart the economy, and support society in      herd immunity, and treatment within
of confirmed cases, especially critical care           balancing lives and livelihood                   sustainable medical capacities possible

                                                                                                                                                          Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
Social distancing (lockdown) and partial business      Moderate economic activity with recovering       Reactivated economy with strong business
closures outside a few, lead to economic               GDP, some business reopenings, and social        rebound and job growth, social restrictions
recession with large employment impact                 distancing on sustainable level                  limited or completely suspended

   1. Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response

   2. Government policies and economic stimulus

   3. Economic scenarios

   4. Business engagement and response

   5. Public engagement and response

                 All of the above five factors result in specific economic and social outcomes in each phase
Source: BCG                                                                                                                                           3
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
1   COVID-19 Context and Development
    Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
    Government policies and action

                                                                                                                                                                          2.3. 2.1.
    Economic and Business Impact

                                                                                                                                                                      Version
                                                                                                                                                                  Version
2
    and Scenarios

                                                                                                                                                             20202020
                                                                                                                                                        17 April
                                                                                                                                                    20 April
    Economic response

                                                                                                                                                Updated
                                                                                                                                            Updated
    Scenarios and key drivers

                                                                                                                                      reserved.
    Business impact

                                                                                                                      All rights
                                                                                                                   Group.         reserved.
                                                                                                                           All rights
    Guide for Leaders

                                                                                                               Group.
3

                                                                                                        Consulting
                                                                                                    Consulting
    Determining government action

                                                                                              by Boston
                                                                                          by Boston
    Considering ecosystem interdependencies

                                                                                      © 2020
    Navigating businesses through the crisis

                                                                                   © 2020
                                                                            Copyright
                                                                         Copyright
                                                                     4
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
1   COVID-19 Context and Development
    Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
    Government policies and action

    Economic and Business Impact

                                                                                                                                            Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
2
    and Scenarios
    Economic response
    Scenarios and key drivers

                                                                                                                                      reserved.
    Business impact

                                                                                                                      All rights
                                                                                                                   Group.         reserved.
                                                                                                                           All rights
    Guide for Leaders

                                                                                                               Group.
3

                                                                                                        Consulting
                                                                                                    Consulting
    Determining government action

                                                                                              by Boston
                                                                                          by Boston
    Considering ecosystem interdependencies

                                                                                      © 2020
    Navigating businesses through the crisis

                                                                                   © 2020
                                                                            Copyright
                                                                         Copyright
                                                                     5
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
COVID-19 pandemic spread: Cases doubling every ~15                                                                                     days1 globally                        HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
                                                                                                                                                                             CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

As of 16 April 2020

                                                        UK

                                                    France                                                                            2nd Apr'20          9th Apr'20            16th Apr' 20
                                                  Spain
                                                              Italy
                      USA                                                                   China                 Japan
                                                                               Iran
                                                                                                             South
                                                                                        India                Korea                       7                    10                     15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2.3.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                17 April 2020 Version 2.1.
                                                                                                                                        days                 days                   days

                                                                                                                                           # of days for doubling1 the cases globally

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20
                                                                                                                                         53k                  95k                   144k
Days of doubling cases:
                                                                                                                                                       # of fatality cases
      0-3 days                  3-6 days                     6-14 days                    14-30 days                   >30 days

           183                                  2.2M                   [∆5%]3                   144k                  [∆6%]3
                                                                                                                                         150                  163                    164

   Countries with cases2                      Confirmed cases globally                          Fatality cases globally
                                                                                                                                            # of countries with local transmission

Note: Continued cases and fatalities are subject to different testing, propensity, reporting standards and hence imperfect measures
1. No. of doubling days based on 7 day CAGR 2. Basis Johns Hopkins CSSE ; 3. Daily growth rate basis 7 day CAGR
Sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our world in data, WHO situation reports, BCG analysis                                                                                                            6
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
The week that was…                         HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
                                           CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

From 11 to 17 April 2020

                                                                    Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                           14 April 2020

                                                           7
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
Doubling days is an early indicator of the phase a country is in;                                                                                                                   DISEASE PROGRESSION,
                                                                                                                                                                                    HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
flattening of the curve now evident in several countries                                                                                                                            CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

As of 15 April 2020

                                          Daily growth rate of total cases (seven-day average)                        Total cumulative number of confirmed cases (log scale)
Flatten
                                          15%                                                                         1,000,000
                                                                                                                                               Countries2 with doubling rate > 14 days

                                                           Singapore                                                                                                                 Spain    Italy
  Rates improving from top to bottom

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                                                                                                                                       Germany
                                                                       India                                            100,000                                                        France         China
                                                                                                                                                                                         Iran
                                          10%                     Japan                      Cases doubling: 8 days
                                                                                                                                                                                 Switzerland
                                                                                    Central & South America4                                                                      Netherlands
                                                                                                                                                                         Portugal
                                                                          Brazil                                                                                               Austria
                                                                                                                         10,000                                                                  South Korea
                                                                                           UK
                                                                           Canada                                                                                         Norway
                                                            Sweden     Africa   Belgium
                                           5%                                                        US
                                                               Portugal        Netherlands Cases doubling: 14 days                                                        Iceland
                                                                                       France                             1,000
                                                                                            Italy
                                                                                Iran          Spain
                                                           Norway Austria
                                                Iceland                              Germany
                                                                        Switzerland
                                                        South Korea                    Greater China
                                           0%                                                                                100
  Fight                                     1,000              10,000                100,000            1,000,000                  0           10         20        30          40       50         60
                                                    Cumulative number of confirmed cases (log scale)                                                                                  Number of days3
                                       Africa   Asia1     Central & South America         Europe    North America                                          Asia1          Europe

1. Includes Middle East 2. Countries selected from the chart on the left 3. # of days after exceeding 100 confirmed cases 4. Excludes Brazil                                                            8
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our World in data, WHO situation reports
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives - Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
Testing ecosystem is proliferating—across both                                                                                                                DISEASE PROGRESSION,
                                                                                                                                                              HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
high-throughput in-lab and rapid near-patient tests                                                                                                           CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

As of 16 April 2020
                                                                                                                                                                              Not exhaustive

Test                                             Available for                                               Becoming available now            In
purpose                                          last 3+ weeks                                               (over last 1-2 weeks)             development

                                                   Examples

                           Lab-based

                                                                                                                                                                                               Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
   Presence of
  viral genome
                         Near-patient/
                         Point-of-Care                                                                                        Rapid, on-site
                                                                                                                              portable test                Handheld digital PCR

                           Lab-based
    Immune
  response to
      virus              Near-patient/                                                                                                               Many players announced
                         Point-of-Care                                                                                                                development plans1

                                                                                                                                                        Biosensor, 1 min
     Presence of viral particle                                                                                                                         result (early stage
                                                                                                                                                         of development)

1. More that 90 serology test makers have notified FDA that they have serology tests available for use as of April 16, 2020
Source: CDC website, FDA website, company websites                                                                                                                                    9
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
Continued ramp-up of testing across countries                                                                                                                                   HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
                                                                                                                                                                                CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

As of 15 April 2020

   # of cumulative tests per million people                                                                                                  # of cumulative tests per million people
   100,000                                                                                                                                   100,000
                                                                                                                                                        Testing rates per million for countries2 across
                                                                     United Arab Emirates                               Iceland
                                                                                                                                                        national income levels3
                                                                                                         Germany
                                                                                                                        Italy
                                                                                                                           Spain              10,000
     10,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                       Russia
                                                                                                                   US
                                                                                                             France
                                                                                             South Korea
                                                                 South Africa                                                                  1,000
       1,000
                                                                    Japan

                                             India                                                                                              100
         100

                                                                                                                                                 10
                                                                                # of confirmed cases per million people                                Mar 16                 Apr 1             Apr 13
           10
                1                          10                           100                         1,000                         10,000       High income        Lower-middle            Upper-middle
                                                                                                                                               countries          income countries        income countries
    Africa          Asia1     Central & South America           Europe          North America

1. Includes Middle East 2. Data corresponds to 37 of 56 countries represented in the chart on the left 3. As per World Bank classification
Source: World Bank, Worldometers.info, Our World in Data, Johns Hopkins                                                                                                                                   10
Several countries drive digitally enabled contact tracing to                                                                                                    DISEASE PROGRESSION,
                                                                                                                                                                HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
increase speed to detect outbreak and protect people                                                                                                            CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

As of 14 April 2020                                                                                                                                                        Non-exhaustive list

Example: Singapore's TraceTogether                                                                                                        Various contact tracing
Developed by Government | Voluntary | 1M+ downloads
                                                                                                                                          apps launched:
                                                                                                                                                                   Down-       % of
                                                                                                                                          Country     App
                                                                                                                                                                   -loads      Population4
                                                                                                                                                      Aarogya
                                                                                                                                          India                    50M1        4%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                                                                                                      Setu

                                                                                                                                          Israel      Hamagen      1.5M1       17%

                                                                                                                                                      TraceToget
                                                                                                                                          Singapore                1M1         18%
                                                                                                                                                      her
                                                                                                                                          South       Corona
                                                                                                                                                                   1M2         2%
                                                                                                                                          Korea       100M

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              reserved.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          reserved.
                                                                                                                                                      Rakning C-
                                                                                                                                          Iceland                  150k1       40%
                                                                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   All rights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              All rights
                                                                                                                                                      Stopp
                                                                                                                                          Austria                  100k3       1%
                                                                                                                                                      Corona

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Group.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Group.
                                                                                                                                          Czech

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Consulting
                                                                                                                                                      eRouška      50k3        0.5%
                                                                                                                                          Republic

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Consulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      by Boston
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  by Boston
                                                                                                                                          Germany, Australia, and several others are

                                                                                                                                                                                                              © 2020
                                                                                                                                          in advanced stages of launching a contact

                                                                                                                                                                                                           © 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Copyright
                                                                                                                                          tracing application

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright
1. Basis Press Research 2. Google play link no longer available 3. Basis App Annie data base 4. Downloads as a percentage of population                                               11
Source: App Annie data base; Google Play store; Press research, BCG
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
                    As of 16 April 2020                                                                                HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
                                                                                                                       CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

                       Vietnam                  First patient: 23 January
                                                Total cases: 268
                        Population:             Tests: 120k+
                        ~96 Million
                                                Recovered Cases: 177 (66%)
                                                Deaths: 0 (0.0%)
                        Area:
                        331,210 sq. km
                                                 • Early border control (e.g. China as early as 3 January, Korea, Europe)
                                                 • National risk assessment exercise in early January; guidelines issued when Wuhan

                                                                                                                                                   Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                   reported 27 infections

Select developing                                • Strict govt. facilities/home quarantines leading to effective tracing and monitoring
                                                 • Early precautions: Schools closed since 17 January
economies are                                    • Entered nationwide “Strict Social Distancing Rule” on April 1

leading the way
in driving             Kerala
                       (India)
                                                First patient: 30 January (first to report infections in India)
                                                Total cases: 394
containment             Population:
                                                Tests: 10k+
                                                Recovered Cases: 245 (62%)
                                                Deaths: 3 (0.8%)
                        ~34 Million

                        Area:                    •   Mandatory quarantines weeks before any other state
                        38,863 sq. km            •   Civil society leaders and call centers helped clear doubts and remove stigma
                                                 •   Monitoring teams in every village; 100,000+ under observation
                                                 •   Schools and colleges closed since 10 March
                                                 •   Daily briefings by top political executives ensured information flow and reduced panic
                                                     movement

                    Source: John Hopkins CSSE; Corona Control in Kerala –Snehil Kumar Singh; Press research; BCG                              12
Race for a cure: Significant progress being made across                                                                                                             DISEASE PROGRESSION,
                                                                                                                                                                    HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
preventative measures and treatment (antibodies, antivirals)                                                                                                        CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

As of 17 April 2020                                                                                                                                                              Not exhaustive
                                   Preventive measures                                        Treatment of infection

                                   Vaccines                                                   Antibodies                                   Antivirals
                                   Prophylactic measure to prevent                            Passive immunity by administering            Act by preventing viral entry to cells or
                                   infection by training the immune                           neutralizing antibodies against              inhibit viral replication within the cell;
         Overview

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                   system to rapidly eliminate                                circulating viral particles in the blood     potential to leverage existing anti-viral Tx

                                                under development globally,
                                     ~80        of which three are in
                                                preclinical stage
                                                                                               >30          under development globally     >20         under development globally
          Ongoing
          research                   Small-scale early access for a small
                                                                                               Early results likely in Q2 2020; use will   Early efficacy signals of Chloroquine based
                                     subset of patients possible in Q3 2020
                                                                                               be limited to small scale/at risk groups    compounds expected in Q2 2020
                                     assuming positive results

      Companies
      Not Exhaustive

                                               While significant progress is being made, treatments and vaccines may be many months away
                                                                                                                                                                                          13
Source: WHO, Company websites, Press releases, Fierce biotech, Genetic Engineering and Biotech press research
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
      Countries are acting to ensure potential resurgence is contained                                                                                       HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
                                                                                                                                                             CAPACITY, AND RESPONSE

                                                               As of 12 April 2020
                                                                                  Daily infections by country                          Measures to curtail resurgence
  Previous pandemics like MERS                                    # of confirmed cases        31 Mar: Statewide stay-at-home
  and the Spanish Flu had disease                                                               extended till at least 30-Apr   Louisiana (US)
                                                                 1,000
  resurgence two to three times                                                   Wave 1                                         • Ban on public gatherings of 50+ people
                                                                                                                                 • Closure of schools, bars, salons, cinemas,
                                                                   500
                                                                                                                                   gyms, casinos

                                                                                                                                                                                      Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
UK Deaths per 1,000 persons                      Spanish Flu                                                                     • Statewide stay-at-home order until at least
                                                                    0                                                              30 April
30                         nd                                       8-Mar           22-Mar            5-Apr
                          2     wave

20
                                            3rd wave
                                                                  # of confirmed cases        08 Apr: Extended prohibition of
10    1st   wave
                                                                                                     public gatherings
                                                                   100
 0                                                                                                                              Hong Kong
      6/29         9/21           11/16     1/11        3/8                       Wave 1                                         • Continuing of shutdown/containment
         1918                              1919                     50                                                             measures
                                                                                                                                 • Closure of bars, salons, cinemas, public
Number of monthly cases worldwide                                    0                                                             places till 23 April
                                                                         23-Feb     8-Mar    22-Mar     5-Apr
400    2014 outbreak
       in Middle East
                                                        MERS      # of confirmed cases
                          2015 outbreak                                                                                         Singapore
200                         in Korea
                                                                   400                       03 Apr: Circuit breaker/lockdown    • Lockdown/shut downs for one month with
                                                                                  Wave 1
                                                                                                                                   hefty fines for violators
 0                                                                 200                                                           • Shifting of healthy migrant workers to
  2013      2014   2015    2016    2017   2018   2019
                                                                                                                                   "floating hotels"
                                                                     0                                                           • Masks mandatory for anyone leaving home
 Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Press Search,                                23-Feb     8-Mar    22-Mar     5-Apr
 BCG Henderson Institute Analysis                                                                                                                                                14
Government measures continue to be enforced                                                                                                                                                                              GOVERNMENT POLICIES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         AND ECONOMIC STIMULUS
US gets stricter in hard-hit areas; China, Spain, Denmark, Iran selectively opening up
As of 16 April 2020
                                                                                                                  International                                           Non-essential
                                  School                    Restricted              Non-essential                     travel                Domestic travel                local mvmt.                   Stricter social distancing norms
                                  closure                   assembly               business closure                restrictions              restrictions2                 restrictions                  imposed in hard hit areas of US; New
                                                                                                                                                                                                         York, California, New Jersey,
            China                                                                                                                                                                                        Connecticut
             Spain
           France                                                                                                                                                                                        Spain begins lifting restrictions on 13
                                                                                                                                                                                                         April with construction and

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
   Switzerland                                                                                                                                                                                           manufacturing workers resuming work
               Italy
               Iran                                                                                                                                                                                       Denmark announces concrete plan
                                                                                                                                                                                                          to lift restrictions; primary schools
       Denmark                                                                                                                                                                                            to reopen from 15 April
       Germany
                 US                                                                                                                                                                                      Iran allowed government offices
                                                                                                                                                                                                         and business outside the capital
   South Korea                                                                                                                                                                                           Tehran to open from 11 April
             Japan
                 UK                                                                                                                                                                                       China lifted the lockdown
                                                                                                                                                                                                          restrictions on Hubei allowing
            Turkey                                                                                                                                                                                        people movement subject to green
              India                                                                                                                                                                                       code classification

      Extensions / New interventions post 31 Mar                           Relaxation measures                          Continuing interventions

1. Includes nationwide actions and actions taken by major local or regional governments. 2 Some German + US rail services are being reduced but not through government mandate
International travel restrictions flagged if any bans put in place or limits in place; Internal travel restriction includes reductions in public transport, or restricted access; Non-essential businesses include at least restaurants, entertainment
venues; School closures are any mandatory state closures; Assembly restrictions include mandatory and advised restrictions on large groups, restrictions on e.g. faith based gatherings; Non-essential local mvmt includes stated restrictions on
being outside or curfews | Source: Government and media reports           2. France, India and UK have extended the lockdowns starting week ending 18 April; whereas Turkey has a weekend lockdown. Denmark has allowed primary school to
reopen; Spain has allowed non-essential businesses like construction and manufacturing workers to go back to work; US has instituted stricter social distancing norms; Iran has allowed government offices and businesses outside Tehran to
turn operational; China has lifted Hubei lockdown allowing people movement                                                                                                                                                                               15
1   COVID-19 Context and Development
    Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
    Government policies and action

    Economic and Business Impact

                                                                                                                                             Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
2
    and Scenarios
    Economic response
    Scenarios and key drivers

                                                                                                                                       reserved.
    Business impact

                                                                                                                       All rights
                                                                                                                    Group.         reserved.
                                                                                                                            All rights
    Guide for Leaders

                                                                                                                Group.
3

                                                                                                         Consulting
                                                                                                     Consulting
    Determining government action

                                                                                               by Boston
                                                                                           by Boston
    Considering ecosystem interdependencies

                                                                                       © 2020
    Navigating businesses through the crisis

                                                                                    © 2020
                                                                             Copyright
                                                                          Copyright
                                                                     16
Global equity markets trending upward but still at a lower mean;                                                                                                                ECONOMIC
                                                                                                                                                                                RESPONSE
unemployment rates rise
As of 15 April 2020
Global equity markets varying                                                                                  Highest level of seasonally adjusted
around a lower mean                                                                                            unemployment claims in history

                                                                                                                 Initial US unemployment insurance claims (millions)
     Markets looked past virus'        Inflection with virus' spread to
     spread in China                   Europe, USA and beyond

                                                                                                                                                                                                Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                                                                        7
                                                                                                                                                      Total of 22M initial
    Cumulative returns (%)
                                                                                                                        6                         unemployment insurance
       5                              Feb 21                                                                                                      claims for last one month
       0                                                                                                                5                        (3.3M, 6.8M, 6.6M and 5.2M
                                                                                                                                                     for the last 4 weeks)
      -5                                                                                                                4

     -10                                                                                                                3
     -15                                                                                                                2
                                                                                Korea (KOSPI)
     -20
                                                                                U.S. (S&P 500)                          1
     -25                                                                        Japan (Nikkei 225)
                                                                                                                        0
     -30                                                                        UK (FTSE 100)

     -35                                                                        German (DAX)
                                                                                India (Nifty 50)
      21 Jan 1 Feb                     1 Mar                1 Apr 15 Apr
                                                                                                                             1970         1980       1990        2000    2010     2020

    Steeper sell-off than             More critical sell-off            Higher volatility than
          in 1929                      than 30% in 20081                '08 credit crisis peak2

                                                                                                                                                                                           17
1. Financial Crisis S&P sell-off at comparable time frame: 26/09/2008 – 27/10/2008 and 19/02/2020 - 23/03/2020 2. Peak VIX recorded 16/03/2020
Source: OECD, Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global FDI and GVCs, UNCTAD, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BCG
Economic forecasts point toward severe downturn                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ECONOMIC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         RESPONSE

       As of 14 April 2020

                                                US                                                                                    Europe                                                                                                  China
                Forecast GDP growth vs. baseline before COVID-19                                                Forecast GDP growth vs. baseline before COVID-19                                             Forecast GDP growth vs. baseline before COVID-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          9.5% (09.4.) BNP Paribas
                                                                      6.1% (10.4.) BAML                                                                              6.1% HSBC Holding (14.4.)                                                                            9.2% (09.4.) JP Morgan Chase
                                                                      5.5% (10.4.) Goldman Sachs Group                                                               5.6% Credit Suisse (14.4.)                                                                           9.2% (14.4.) IMF
                                                                      4.7% (14.4.) IMF                                                                               5.5% Morgan Stanley (14.4.)                                                                          8.8% (03.4.) Nomura Securities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                      3.4% (10.4.) ING Group                                                                         4.7% JP Morgan Chase (14.4.)                                                                         8.8% (10.4.) BAML
                                                                      2.9% (10.4.) Credit Suisse
                                                                                                                                                                     4.7% IMF (14.4.)                                                                                `    6.5% (07.4.) ABM Amro
                                                                      2.9% (10.4.) Danske Bank                                                                                                                                                                            6.3% (03.4.) Dankse Bank
                                                                      2.4% (10.4.) Barclays                                                                          3.5% Standard Chartered (10.4)        Baseline: 6.0%                                                 5.8% Baseline
         Baseline: 2.0%                                               2.2% (13.4.) Citigroup                                                                         3.2% ING Group (14.4)                Caixa Bank (27.3.): 5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                     2.7% DZ Bank (27.3.)                                                                                 5.8% (07.4.) ING Group
              Visa (06.4.): -1.1%                                     1.7% Baseline
                                           Last week’s range

                                                                                                                                          Last week’s range

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Last week’s range
                                                                                                                                                                     1.8% UBS (14.4.)                    Danske Bank (03.4.): 5.2%
         ABN Amro (10.4.): 1.4%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5.6% (09.4.) Credit Suisse
      Danske Bank (10.4.): -2.0%
                                                                      1.6% (06.4.) Visa
                                                                                                         Baseline: 1.3%                                              1.4% Baseline                     Commerzbank (09.4.): 4.0%
     Credit Suisse (10.4.): -2.6%                                                                 Fitch Solutions (14.4.): -1.3%                                     1.4% Fitch Solutions
                                                                                                                                                                          (14.3.)                          ING Group (07.4.): 4.0%
    Deutsche Bank (31.3.): -4.2%
          Barclays (10.4.): -4.5%                                                              JP Morgan Chase (14.4.): -3.4%                                        1.4% Danske Bank                    Credit Suisse (09.4.): 3.3%
  JP Morgan Chase (10.4.): -5.3%                                                            Standard Chartered (10.4.): --4.0%                                            (03.4.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                           ABN Amro (07.4.): 3.0%
    Morgan Stanley (03.4): -5.5%                                                                           UBS (14.4.): -4.5%)                                                                                  HSBC (03.4.): 3.0%
      BNP Paribas (10.4): -5.7%                                                                 Morgan Stanley (14.4.): -5.0%                                                                          Morgan Stanley (03.4.): 2.0%
               IMF (14.4): -5.9%                                                                       Barclays (14.4.): -5.5%                                                                                   IMF (14.4.): 1.2%
            BAML (10.4.): -6.0%                                                                         Natixis (14.4.): -5.9%                                                                        JP Morgan Chase(09.4.): 1.1%
       Rabo Bank (09.4.): -6.4%                                                                  HSBC Holdings (14.4.): -6.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nomura Securities (03.4.): 1.0%
   HSBC Holdings (03.4.): -6.5%                                                                             IMF (14.4.): -7.5%
      ING Group (10.4.): -7.0%                                                                     BNP Paribas (14.4.): -8.3%
Nomura Securities (06.4.): -9.0%                                                                      Citigroup (14.4.): -8.4%

                                    2020                       2021                                                                2020                       2021                                                                     2020                        2021

       (DD.MM) format used
       Note: As of reports dated 27 March 2020 to 14 April 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       18
       1. Estimated since GDP growth mentioned for second half of 2020 as average
       Source: Bloomberg, IMF, BCG analysis
Scenarios and potential outcomes driven by five key questions                                                                         SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                       AND DRIVERS
 Shape may vary in depth and duration depending on country and sector composition of the economy

 As of 14 April 2020                                                                                                                               Illustrative

                                      Flatten                                                    Fight                                 Future
                              Shut-down                         Re-start                                                Cure

     Economic

                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
       activity                              1a                                                    2a
 100%
                                                                                                                                        3    Some sectors
                                                                            2b
                                                   1b

   Critical care
       patients

                            What will be the LENGTH
                                                                            What will be the LENGTH of "Fight"?
                            of "Flatten"?
Five questions         1a   What are the preconditions to              2a   What are the preconditions to transition?
                                                                            When will we achieve them?                             Where does the
will shape the              transition? When will we achieve them?
                                                                                                                                   economy return to
     economic                                                                                                                  3   relative to the pre-
     outcomes               To what DEPTH does the economy                  What LEVEL of recovery does the economy                COVID era in "Future"?
                       1b   drop in "Flatten"?
                                                                       2b   achieve in "Fight"?

 Source: BCG                                                                                                                                                19
Flatten: Key scenario inputs and implications                                                                                                                                               SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                                                                            AND DRIVERS

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Prelim figures for USA
As of 14 April 2020

                Flatten                                      Fight                               Future                                                Scenario overview

                                                                                                                                                  1a                                   1b

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                                                                         Scenario               LENGTH                                DEPTH of
     Economic
                                                                                                                         parameters             of “Flatten”                          economic drop
     activity
                                                                                                                                                 • Disease progression2               • Revenue loss/week
                                                                                                                         Key                     • Government response3               • Hospital capacity
                                                                                                                         scenario                • Sector composition of              • Societal adherence to
 Critical care                                                                                                           drivers                   economy                              physical distancing
 patients                                                                                                                                        • Employment

                                                                                                                                                 • Mid May (~7 wks)                   • 15-20% loss
                                                                                                                         Potential
                                                                                                                                                 • Mid June (~1o wks)                 • 20-25% loss
                                                                                                                         outcomes
                                                                                                                                                 • Mid July (~13 wks)                 • 25-30% loss

                                                                                                                                              Example: Lockdown duration scenarios1

1.    Lockdown duration based on empirically observed 4-8 weeks from peak infection. Does not reflect impact from peak infection per capita rate, local health care capacity, local
      testing/monitoring capability or local government policies. Duration varies by state, but duration reflects March W3 start
2.    Disease evolution, infection rate, fatality rate, mutation, etc. 3. Social/economic policies, immigration, fiscal and monetary stimuli, etc.                                                          20
Flatten: Scenario selection and impact driven by localized                                                                                                                              SCENARIOS

geography and sector factors                                                                                                                                                            AND DRIVERS

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Prelim figures for USA
As of 14 April 2020
                                                                          Annualized economic impact1

                                                   15-20% loss                              2-3%                                          3-4%                                         3-5%

          DEPTH of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
 1b
          economic loss                            20-25% loss                              2-4%                                          3-5%                                         5-7%
          (Weekly economic loss)

                                                   25-30% loss                              3-4%                                          4-6%                                         6-8%

                                                                                          W2 May                                        W1 June                                      W4 June
                                                                                           (7 weeks)                                    (10 weeks)                                    (13 weeks)

        Scenario and impact                                                  1a       LENGTH of suppression
      outcome differs based on                                                        (weeks)
       geography and industry
                                                                                                                     Example: Lockdown duration scenarios2

1.   Lower end of ranges rounded down and upper end of ranges rounded up to reflect uncertainty. 2. Lockdown duration based on empirically observed 4-8 weeks from peak infection. Does not reflect
     impact from peak infection rate, local health care capacity, local testing/monitoring capability or local government policies.                                                                         21
Total shareholder return (TSR) rebound over last 15-20 days                                                                                                                          SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                                                                     AND DRIVERS
across markets and sectors
Two time periods from 21 February 2020 to 15 April 2020

Decline reflects economic scenario and consumer sentiment
                                     TSR performance1                        Americas                    Europe                      Asia                  Observations
                                                                        2/21-3/20   3/20-4/15     2/21-3/20   3/20-4/15     2/21-3/20   3/20-4/15
                                       Food/staples Retail
                                       Pharma
                                       Household Products
                                                                                                                                                                 Non-discretionary/essential service
 Healthier sectors                                                                                                                                               less hit but still had recovery

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                       Food & Beverage
                                       Telecom
                                       Semiconductors
                                       Utilities
                                                                                                                                                                 Broad set of industries experiencing
                                       Health Equipment
                                       Software
                                                                                                                                                                 pressure, with some regions
                                       Materials
                                                                                                                                                                 particularly affected for certain
 Pressured sectors                     Tech Hardware                                                                                                             sectors (e.g. transport in Europe)
                                       Prof. Services
                                                                                                                                                                 Utilities and health equipment
                                       Transport
                                                                                                                                                                 generally better off in Asia
                                       Capital Goods
                                       Retailing
                                       Financials
                                       Media
                                       Insurance
                                       Real Estate
                                                                                                                                                                 Hardest hit sectors have rebounded,
                                       Auto
 Vulnerable sectors                                                                                                                                              but still negative TSR YTD
                                       Banks
                                       Hospitality
                                       Durable Goods
                                       Energy

Note: As of 15 April 2020; Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Industries are based on GICS definitions 1) Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020
(before international acceleration of outbreak) to 20 March 2020 (trough of the market) and from 20 March 2020 through 15 April 2020                                                                    22
Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG Henderson Institute; BCG
SCENARIOS
Credit risk continues to be a concern for majority of sectors                                                                                                                            AND DRIVERS

As of 21 February 2020 to 15 April 2020                                                          Number of
                                                                                                 companies with
                                                                      Median 5-year CDS1         5-year CDS
                                                                      implied probability        probability of            Companies in
                                                                      of default1                default >15%              distress (%)3                      Observations
                                        Food/staples Retail                      5%                          0                        0%
                                        Pharma                                   3%                          1                        5%
                                        Household Products
 Healthier sectors                                                               4%                          0                        0%
                                        Food & Beverage                          4%                          0                        0%

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                                        Telecom                                  6%                          4                        15%
                                        Semiconductors                           6%                          0                        0%
                                        Utilities                                4%                          0                        0%                                Hospitality, energy, retailing
                                        Health Equipment                         5%                          0                        0%                                industries facing greatest risk
                                        Software                                 5%                          0                        0%                                of default based on current
                                        Materials                                6%                          7                        15%                               credit profile
 Pressured sectors                      Tech Hardware                            4%                          0                        0%
                                        Prof. Services                           5%                          0                        0%                                Less discretionary sectors are
                                        Transport                                3%                          8                        32%                               largely at lower risk of default
                                        Capital Goods                            5%                          6                        10%                               in current climate
                                        Retailing                                8%                          8                        47%
                                        Financials                               6%                          0                        0%                                Other sectors may
                                        Media                                    8%                          2                        14%                               have individual companies in
                                        Insurance                                6%                          0                        0%                                specific default risk as well
                                        Real Estate                              8%                          5                        20%
 Vulnerable sectors                     Auto                                     12%                         7                        33%
                                        Banks                                     6%                         2                         4%
                                        Hospitality                              12%                         6                        43%
                                        Durable Goods                             6%                         1                         5%
                                        Energy                                   13%                         9                        26%
Note: As of 15 April 2020; Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Industries are based on GICS definitions
1 Credit Default Swap; 2 Performance is tracked for the period 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak), through 15 April 2020 3. Distressed comprises over

15% implied probability of default Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG Henderson Institute; BCG                                                                                                                    23
Governments stepping in to provide impetus to stressed sectors                                                                                     SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                                   AND DRIVERS

As of 15 Apr 2020
                                    Loans/Guarantees/
                                     Direct payments                Scrapping of charges                Grants for salaries                  Other Benefits
Example: Aviation

                             ~$30B for airlines and cargo
                                                                Grants to ensure continued
                             carriers (excluding grant for                                         ~$30B grant to continue salaries   Fund for emergency loans;
US                           salaries)
                                                                operations; have to maintain
                                                                                                   for airlines and cargo employees   deferral of taxes
                                                                90% employment
                             $10B in grants for Airports

                                                                                                                                                                             Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                Relief from airport fees
                                                                Forego fuel excise, air service                                       Lowered bank ratios to improve
Australia                    $3.2B 15-month incentive loan
                                                                charge and regional security                                          liquidity
                                                                fees

                             Guarantee of 80% of loan upto                                         80% of the wages of any            100% business rates holiday for
UK                           £5M                                                                   employee                           12 months

                             Carriers and airport operators to Rebate on landing charges,                                             Rental relief for ground handlers,
                                                                                                   75% of the first ~$4,600 of
Singapore                    defer fee payment to government parking charges, and office
                                                                                                   employees monthly pay
                                                                                                                                      cargo agents
                             amounting to ~$140M               rentals at the airport                                                 scrapping of property tax

                                                                                                                                      HKAA (Public Airport Authority)
                             HK$2 billion purchase scheme for
                                                                                                                                      allowed 70% discount on rent for
Hong                         half-million air tickets, as well as Waiver of aeronautical charges
                                                                                                                                      airport concessionaires; subsidy
Kong                         buying back airport services         reduction on landing charges
                                                                                                                                      of HK$1M for each large aircraft,
                             equipment
                                                                                                                                      HK$0.2M for smaller planes

Source: Government Websites; Press Search                                                                                                                               24
Focused support to small industries and services                                                                                                                        SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                                                        AND DRIVERS

As of 16 April 2020
                                      Loans/Guarantees/                                                                       Grants for salaries/
                                       Direct payments                           Tax rebates/extension                        Employee Retention                  Other Benefits
Example: Services

                               SBA1 to pay all principal, interest                                                       $349B paycheck –protection        Loan advance up to $10k to
                                                                   Deferred tax payments until
US                             and fees on all existing SBA loan
                                                                   December
                                                                                                                         program - 100% federally backed   affected businesses without a
                               products for 6 months                                                                     loans of up to $10M               need to repay

                                                                                                                                                                                                Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                            Deferred tax payments by up to 4             $1,500 per fortnight per
                                                                                                                                                           Moratorium on evictions over
                               Guarantee of 50% for new,                    months (ATO2)                                employee for up to 6 months
Australia                      unsecured loans                              Instant asset write-off threshold            50% wage subsidy of an
                                                                                                                                                           next 6 months for commercial
                                                                                                                                                           tenants
                                                                            increased to $150k                           apprentice for up to 9 months
                                                                            Additional 3 months to file
                                                                                                                                                           £10k one-off grant to businesses
                               Guarantee of 80% of loan up to               accounts with Companies                      HMRC3 to reimburse employers
UK                             £5M by British Business Bank                 Deferred VAT payments by 3                   up to 80% of the salary costs
                                                                                                                                                           Commercial tenants to be
                                                                                                                                                           protected from eviction
                                                                            months
                                                                                                                                                           1 month of rental waiver to
                               Guarantee of 80% of loan up to               25% tax rebate capped at $15k                8% rebate of the wages for 3
Singapore                      $1M at 5% interest rate                      and 15% property tax rebate                  months ($1.3B program)
                                                                                                                                                           stallholders and .5 months to
                                                                                                                                                           other tenants
                               Up to 100% loan guarantee                                        Increase in subsidies from 66.7%
                                                               Deferred tax payments by up to 1                                  Subsidies for capital investments
Japan                          under a framework of up to 280M
                                                               year
                                                                                                to 90% for part-time pay and
                                                                                                                                 up to 10M Yen
                               Yen                                                              wages
                               INR 10M emergency working                                                                                                   Waiver of minimum account
                               capital loans within 48 hours;               Tax payments deadline extended Pay 12%                   EPF4
                                                                                                                         contribution of                   balance;
India                          3 month deferment of loan EMI5               by 3 months                    employer for 3 months                           reduced bank charges for digital
                               repayments                                                                                                                  transactions
1. SBA refers to Small Business Administration 2. ATO refers to Australian Tax Office; 3. HRMC refers to Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs;
4. EPF is Employee Provident Fund 5. Easy monthly instalments
Source: OECD. (2020); Press Search; SME Policy Responses                                                                                                                                   25
Fight: Key scenario inputs and implications                                                                                           SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                      AND DRIVERS

                                                                                                                                             Prelim figures for USA
As of 14 April 2020

            Flatten                                     Fight                Future                        Scenario overview

                                                                                                     2a                          2b

                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                                                                                 LEVEL of
                                                                                      Scenario        DURATION
                                                                                                                                 economic
                                                                                      parameters      of "Fight"
                                                                                                                                 recovery

                                                    Economic activity
                                                                                                          • Cure development/deployment timeline
                                                    Critical care patients
                                                                                                          • Health care, testing, and monitoring
                                                                                                            capacity
                                                                                                          • Continued government response
                                                                                      Key scenario
                                                                                                          • Societal response to social distancing
                                                                                      drivers               measures
                                                                                                          • Economic result
                                                                                                          • Consumer behavior
                                                                                                          • Output of different industries

1. Based on vaccine treatment implemented; 2. Level of economic openness                                                                                26
Duration of Fight: Aggressive movement toward                                                                                                                                   SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                                                                AND DRIVERS
vaccine in 12-18 months
As of 15 April 2020
Timeframe (years)                             0                                1                         2                             3                            4                     5

                                                                                   Small-scale clinical trial material                                              Commercial scale-up

Traditional paradigm

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                    Discovery /
                                                                                    Phase 1                   Phase 2                            Phase 3                     Commercial launch
takes > 5 years                                     screening

                      Scale-up at risk                                Commercial scale-up                    Scale to support
                                                                                                             global demand
                                                  Small-scale clinical trial material                                                         Key success factors/indicators:
                                                                       Phase 3                                                                  • Published safety data to show vaccine has
Potential accelerated                  Disc
                                                     Phase 1            (1,000s         Commercial
                                                                                                                                                  been well tolerated in healthy volunteers
                                                  (10s patients)                          launch
pathway for Covid-19                                                   patients)
                                                                                                                                                • Manufacturing scale-up beginning
vaccine                                                         Phase 2                                                                           immediately (expected ~6-12 month lead
                                                             (100s patients)                                                                      time)
                                                                                          Emergency use                                         • Expansion of clinical trials to include
                                                                                         authorization for a                                      volunteers over 60 years old
                   Limited pre-
                                                                                        small volume release
                  clinical testing                                                                                                              • Established a clear view on a surrogate of
                                     Start Ph 2 with                                                                                              efficacy (e.g. challenge model)
                                    interim Ph1 data                 Potential animal
                                                                challenge study in parallel

Source: Company websites, BCG analysis, https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/china-s-cansino-bio-advances-covid-19-vaccine-into-phase-2-preliminary-safety-data,                                27
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/bill-gates-7-potential-coronavirus-vaccines/, https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216,
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00927-3
Duration of Fight: Data from therapeutics will likely emerge                                                                                                                                             SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                         AND DRIVERS
in a few months; drugs will likely reduce severity of infection
As of 15 April 2020

 Drug                      Current use                                        Q2 2020                                       Q3 2020                                     Q4 2020

Remdesivir
                           •   Ebola and other             Currently used under                                                            Gilead may apply for ultra-quick review if            Key success factors/
                               coronaviruses                                                                                               early trial data looks positive ; potential to
                               (investigational)
                                                             compassionate use
                                                                                                                                           supply 140k treatment courses                         indicators:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Clinical data from
Hydroxychloro-    • Malaria and lupus                     Currently used under                                 If clinical data is positive, high potential
                                                                                                                                                                                                    controlled trials showing
                                                            compassionate use                                          to scale production quickly
quine (Plaquenil)                                                                                                                                                                                   reduced hospitalization
                                                                                                                                                                                                    time or infection level
Tocilizumab                •   Rheumatoid                                                                                            Likely to see data readout in Q3 2020 for
(Actemra)                      arthritis                                                                                             28-day controlled study                                      • Demonstrated safety
                                                                                                                                                                                                    profile at the dose required
                                                                                                                                                                                                    to achieve efficacy
Sarilumab                  •   Rheumatoid                                                                                              Trials with severe or critically ill patients
                                                                                                                                       started in late March 2020
(Kevzara)                      arthritis
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Bio-banking infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                                                                    to support convalescent
                           •   N/A (previously used                                                                                     Johns Hopkins team has begun to build a network
Convalescent                                                                                                                            of 40 sites across 20 states to biobank plasma;             plasma
                               in H1N1 and Ebola
                                                               Results from the trials in the two New York                              scale will be a big limitation
serum                          outbreaks)                     hospitals are expected around the end of April

Synthetic                  •   N/A                                                         Targeting clinical trials to begin
                                                                                                        in Summer of 2020
antibodies                                                                                                                                           Expect to have capacity to provide small
(i.e. produced                                                                                                                                      scale access by late Fall 2020 (Regeneron)

in bioreactor)

                                                                                         Key:                    Prelim. data              Early access              Broad availability                                    28
Source: Company websites, WHO, https://milkeninstitute.org/covid-19-tracker
Fight: Likely very different ramps by geography and by sector                                                                                                           SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                                                             AND DRIVERS
     China example

    As of 07 April 2020                                                                                                                                                                 Figures for China

    People and goods are                                           Coal consumption                                                    Property transactions
    starting to move again                                         moving higher                                                       are restarting

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
              17-Jan       12-Feb       12-Mar       10-Apr                     17-Jan       12-Feb       12-Mar        10-Apr                       17-Jan         12-Feb     12-Mar        10-Apr

                                                    Areas with early intervention show signs of V-shaped ramp;
                                                              Wuhan/Hubei trending toward U shape
Note: China data re-based for weekdays excl. weekends relative to start of Chinese New Year. Congestion delay index average include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,
Shenzhen, and Wuhan; Daily coal consumption of major power plants = sum of daily average coal consumption of Jerdin Electric, Guangdon Yudean Group, Datang                                      29
International Power Generation, and Huaneng Power International, Inc. Source: Wind, www.cqcoal.com, and BCG Center for Macroeconomics
In developed markets, younger consumers are concerned about                                                                                                                             BUSINESS ENGAGEMENT

  virus's financial impact, but confident about restart and recovery                                                                                                                      AND RESPONSE

  As of 30 March 2020                                                                                                                                US       Canada         UK       Germany         France        Italy

                       Financial security                               Strength in savings                              Economic outlook                                 Return to normalcy

                         More worried          Less worried               Weaker                      Stronger            Negative                      Positive           Slower                        Faster

                            –20 pp                Average                 –20 pp        Average           20 pp            –20 pp        Average           20 pp            –20 pp          Average      20 pp
                                                   20 pp

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
Gen Z
(18–
25)                                                                                                                                                        Younger generations feel
                                                                                                                                                                more positive
Millennials
(26–40)

Gen X
(41–
55)                                                         Older generations
                                                             feel more secure
Baby
boomers+
(56+)

                              I am worried about my                             I have enough savings                             There will be an                         My spending habits will quickly
                             personal finances due to                              to get through                             economic recession due                         return to normal after the
                                 the coronavirus                                                                                to the coronavirus                         coronavirus is under control

  Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 27–30, 2020 (N = 2,928 Canada; 2,985 France; 3,085 Germany; 2,150 Italy; 2,984 UK; 2,944 US), unweighted, representative within    3% of               30
  census demographics. Note: Question text: “How much do you agree with each of the following statements about the coronavirus?”
1   COVID-19 Context and Development
    Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
    Government policies and action

    Economic and Business Impact

                                                                                                                                             Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
2
    and Scenarios
    Economic response
    Scenarios and key drivers

                                                                                                                                       reserved.
    Business impact

                                                                                                                       All rights
                                                                                                                    Group.         reserved.
                                                                                                                            All rights
    Guide for Leaders

                                                                                                                Group.
3

                                                                                                         Consulting
                                                                                                     Consulting
    Determining government action

                                                                                               by Boston
                                                                                           by Boston
    Considering ecosystem interdependencies

                                                                                       © 2020
    Navigating businesses through the crisis

                                                                                    © 2020
                                                                             Copyright
                                                                          Copyright
                                                                     31
DETERMINING
Several countries have already announced restart ambitions                                                                                                               GOVERNMENT ACTION

As of 09 April 2020

Transition timeline from 'Flatten' to 'Fight' phase for selected countries                                                       Initial details of restart

                                            Mar                                     Apr                      May
                            01.       08.      15.      22.      29.      05.      12.       19.      26.      03.
                                                                                                                                 Denmark: Proposing to lift some restrictions on
     Denmark                                                                                                                     business and schools, ban on gatherings until 10 May

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                                                                                 Czech Republic: Planning to lift restrictions on some
     Czech Republic                                                                                                              home repair and household goods shops
                                                                                                                                 Austria: Proposing to reopen small shops, large shops to
     Austria                                                                                                                     remain closed until May
                                                                                                                                 Malaysia: Proposing to reopen selected economic
     Malaysia
                                                                                                                                 sectors in phases, following strict hygiene rules

     United States                                                                                                               United States: State-led reopening potentially starting
                                                                                                                                 beginning of May

     Norway                                                                                                                      Norway: Proposing to resume some businesses, schools,
                                                                                                                                 and travel

     Germany                                                                                                                     Germany: Planning to begin lifting restrictions for some
                                                                                                                                 businesses and shortly after for schools

                                     Proposed re-entry plans dependent on disease evolution in each country
                                                                                                                                                     Start of lockdown
Notes: '(Began…)' refers to the start date of a country's lockdown, lockdown definition varies between countries; Italy, Spain
have announced some intention to lift some restrictions in April, but without specific dates stated                                                  Potential start date of 'Fight' phase
Source: Lit search; BCG analysis                                                                                                                                                             32
To transition from 'Flatten' to 'Fight' phase, leaders need to think
through multiple key questions

        Flatten                                       Fight                                      Future

         Governments                             Ecosystems                               Businesses

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         How to balance containment                                          Under what context should
         and mitigation with                                             employees be allowed to return to
         socioeconomic recovery?                                                          their workplace?

                                                                         Which employees should return
         When is the right time to reopen?                                          to their workplace?

         What is the optimal sequencing                                      What interventions should be
         of reopening?                            How to manage              taken to ensure a safe work
                                             uncertainty given winning                     environment?
                                              requires coordination of
                                               many stakeholders?

Source: BCG                                                                                                  33
Reopening activities need to be guided on a national level                                                           DETERMINING
                                                                                                                     GOVERNMENT ACTION
and adapted to local realities

                                                                      National advisory guidelines articulate a common framing of risk
                                        Establish and assign risk
               National             1                                 levels and provide practical advice on actions to take for each risk
              government                levels to local regions       level (transportation, gathering size, PPE, etc.)
                                                                        • Federal public health officials advise on disease management
                                                                           activities by risk level

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                                        Develop discretionary           • Risk levels a function of health care readiness (and in some
                                    2
                                        guidelines by risk level           instances public engagement)

 Region         Region     Region       Regions establish oversight   Actual sequence of reopening activities needs to go from de-
   A              B          C
                                    3
                                        and 'control tower'           averaged and responsive to locally driven, customized to on-the-
                                                                      ground facts
                                                                        • Result is decision-makers adopting different strategies for
                                                                          recovery by locality based on how to best meet requirements for
                                        Set specific policies at
          Municipalities            4                                     the local risk level, and tailored to their local conditions
                                        local level

                                                                      Governments should actively involve the private sector in creation
                                        Private and public actors
      Private/public actors         5                                 of sector-specific playbooks to achieve guidelines including industry
                                        develop unique playbooks      associations, trade and labor unions, chambers of commerce

Source: BCG                                                                                                                                  34
Local risk assessments determine need for application                                                                                                              DETERMINING
                                                                                                                                                                   GOVERNMENT ACTION
of differentiated guidelines

Each area is to be categorized into four risk                                                                   Case study: National guidelines in Germany vary by
clusters with varying degrees of openness                                                                       region based on assessed risk

   Severe Red                                                                                                                                            Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
   Areas with high case load, high                                                                                                                    Current case load1: 15/100k

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   growth, and high risk of
                                                                                                                                                      Growth rate (7-day avg.): 1.5%
   transmission                                           Extended lockdown                                                                           Population density: 69/km2
                                                          except for essential
   Red                                                    goods and services
   Areas with high case load but low                                                                                                                      Bayern
   growth rate of new cases
                                                                                                                                               Current case load1: 136/100k
                                                                                                                                               Growth rate (7-day avg.): 2.7%
                                                                                                                                               Population density: 185/km2
   Yellow
   Areas with no new cases in last                      Selectively open up and
   week and all prior cases isolated/                   prepare for full opening
   contained                                                                                                             In Bayern, an area with a comparatively higher current
                                                                                                                         caseload, growth rate, and population density,
   Green                                                                                                                 restrictions are tighter and reopening of shops and
                                                        Open up to the extent
   Areas with no new cases in the                       feasible while monitoring
                                                                                                                         schools will happen later than in the rest of Germany,
   last 3 weeks and all prior cases                     risk of outbreak                                                 such as Mecklenburg Vorpommern
   recovered

1. Not all recovered cases get reported; Source: Bayerisches Landesamt für Statistik, Regierung Mecklenburg Vorpommern, Zeit, BCG analysis                                             35
DETERMINING
Governments need to get the preconditions for opening right                                                                             GOVERNMENT ACTION

                        Health care readiness                                                      Public/economic readiness

       Disease                Health care                Virus moni-                 Business                   Public                   Government

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      conditions               capacity                 toring system               preparation                response                  preparation
 Control of virus impact    Adequate supply of           Widespread virus          Workplace health       Training and availability    Federal framework for
in terms of case growth     hospital supplies,         testing relative to new   protocols and business    of hygiene products          public health, sectors,
  and disease impact          trained workers,        case volume, serological         readiness               and PPE; high             and global politics
      (e.g. high risk        treatment spaces            testing, and contact                                compliance rates
      populations)                                              tracing

  Leading indicator that     Capacity sufficient to       Testing to inform         Businesses ensure        Public educated and            Clear guidance,
  measures are effective,   care for COVID-19 and        decisions, resource       workplace safety for    empowered to adhere to       expectations, and legal
     public health is             other health        allocation, and outbreak      those returning to      guidelines, play role in     protection for system
        protected                    needs                    resolution                   work                  containment                     actors

Source: BCG analysis                                                                                                                                          36
DETERMINING
Five different factors should inform the sequencing decision                                                                                                                                  GOVERNMENT ACTION

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Example Country

Three factors are primary determinants                                                   Weekly income at risk and virus resurgence risk factors
for country-specific sequencing                                                          are two starting considerations

                                                                                          1   Virus resurgence risk factor                                                3         Employment: 500k jobs
      1    Virus resurgence
                                                                                                                                                                                                            3

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                Stage
                                                                                        35         Arts and entertainment                                                                                       Three
      2    Income at risk

      3    Employment                                                                                                                        Accommodation & food                                           2   Stage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Two

                                                                                        30           Education

However, additional considerations                                                      Finance, insurance & RE                                                                Wholesale & retail

                                                                                                                                                                                                            1
                                                                                                                                                        Other services                                          Stage
play an important role, too                                                                                   Transport                                                                                         One
                                                                                        25                                                                                                Construction
                                                                                                    Professional services
      4     Geographical specificity                                                                                 Resources & utilities
                                                                                                                                                                              Manufacturing

      5     Sector interconnectedness
                                                                                             0.0                                0.5                                 1.0                                1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                      2    Weekly income at risk
                                                                                                                                                                                           during major lockdown ($B)
Note: The virus resurgence risk factor takes into account frequency of contact, contact with external customers, physical proximity during
interactions, likelihood of exposure to illness Source: BCG analysis                                                                                                                                                37
CONSIDERING
Ecosystems and a global view will be required as economies open                                                    ECOSYSTEM INTER-
                                                                                                                   DEPENDENCIES

                                                                                                                                    Illustrative

Global integration of electronics
supply chain – key regional steps

           Metals imported, rare earth metals
     1

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           mined in China

           Components like silicon wafers, chips,
     2     and PC boards made in SEA, China, and
           US                                                                                                  Silicon mining
                                                                                                             1 (China)
                                                                                          LCD Screens
           Larger assemblies fabricated in the                                           (South Korea)
     3                                                                                                   3
           US, Taiwan, Japan, and Philippines       2,3                                                                 Batteries
                                                                                                                    3
                                                                                                  1,2,                  (Japan)
           Final assembly and testing in                                                          4,5
     4                                                                                                   3
           Chongqing                                                                                           2    Components
                                                                                                                    (Southeast Asia)
           Products shipped through Chongqing
     5
           Port/Shenzen Port worldwide                                    1
                                                          1

                                                              Mining: Cobalt, niobium,
                                                              gold, lithium, platinum

Note: Based on Dell/Apple laptop supply chains
Source: BCG research                                                                                                                       38
Existing industry associations can bridge the gap between                                                              CONSIDERING
                                                                                                                       ECOSYSTEM INTER-
governments and companies to set standards                                                                             DEPENDENCIES

     Business for South Africa: Companies across                         Suraksha stores: Public/private partnerships to
     sectors joining forces to define COVID response                     ensure safety and hygiene practices

Business for South Africa (B4SA) is a conglomerate of                 Government sets up 2 million 'Suraksha Stores' to provide daily
businesses and leaders                                                essentials to citizens

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Its purpose is to jointly develop a strategic and sustainable         The initiative will convert small shops to retail outlets selling
response to COVID-19                                                  daily essentials
B4SA works in close collaboration with the government, the            India's top 12 packaged consumer goods companies support the
media, and NGOs                                                       implementation
It consists of four workstreams:                                      Each company will be given one or twostates to execute this plan
                                                                      effectively
                                                                      Companies include:

     Health care                                     Economics

     Labor                                           Communications

Source: The Economic Times, Business Standard, BCG                                                                                        39
NAVIGATING BUSINESSES
                                                                                                                                     THROUGH THE CRISIS

Guiding principles                     Be visible, purposeful,                                         Leverage the principle
                                       and authentic                                                   of “commander’s intent"
for leadership                         Communicate in ways that engage and                             Share only key objectives and rationale
in crisis                              increase the relevance of your teams                            of required actions to allow the
                                       and clarify the reasons underlying your                         organization to be flexible and adaptive,
                                       communications                                                  and allow a focus on execution

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“THESE are the times that try          Use multiple clock-speeds                                       Engage externally
men's souls. The summer soldier
and the sunshine patriot will, in      Think on multiple timescales by                                 Communicate with customers and
this crisis, shrink from the service   considering the now, the next, and the                          stakeholders to gather frequent, fresh,
of their country; but he that          later. Ensure that leadership teams look                        firsthand information to adapt and
stands by it now, deserves the love    ahead and prepare for the future                                respond effectively
and thanks of man and woman.
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily
conquered; yet we have this
consolation with us, that the          Cut through bureaucracy                                         Keep imagination alive
harder the conflict, the more
glorious the triumph."                 Assemble a multi-functional task force                          Look out for new needs and opportunities
                                       that is empowered to make decisions                             to serve clients now and beyond the crisis.
                                       and suspend normal decision protocols                           We will not be reverting to a 2019 reality
Thomas Paine, The Crisis

                                       Source: When Leadership Matters Most, BCG Henderson Institute                                                 40
Business leaders need to consider their employees’ risk profile                                                               NAVIGATING BUSINESSES
                                                                                                                              THROUGH THE CRISIS
holistically, not take an isolated view of the workplace

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                         Home environment/                     Employees commute to           Employees interact with
                                                               work via public/group          their colleagues or
                                community                      transport where they are       clients at the workplace
                                                               exposed to other commuters     depending on the type of work
                Employees might have exposure to other
                                                               in confined space like buses   and workplace
                 people in their home environment like
                family, roommates, or people they have to
                                                               Commute from/                  Workplace
                    care for (like grandparents); or live in
                   more densely populated communities          to work

  Source: BCG                                                                                                                                 41
NAVIGATING BUSINESSES
                                                                                                                 THROUGH THE CRISIS

                                                         Flatten                        Fight                  Future

To know more           Establish crisis            1     Develop Scenario-Based                 2   Create a Rapid Response
                                                                                                    and Transformation
about the               management
                                                         Planning Approach to
                                                                                                    (RR&T) team
                                                         manage uncertainty

9

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        action areas
        for business                               3     Revamp Organization and
                                                         People for the new normal              6   Manage Cost, Cash, and
                                                                                                    Liquidity
        leaders
                             Navigate              4     Drive Topline Security
                                                         and Customer trust                     7   Emerge Stronger; drive
                                                                                                    advantage in adversity
refer to the                  through
previous edition        Flatten, Fight,
                           and Future              5     Stabilize and restart Supply
                                                         Chain, Manufacturing                   8   Accelerate Digital and
                                                                                                    Technology transformation

                                                   9     Help Society during
                                                         COVID-19

                       Note: RR&T = Rapid Response and Transformation Team
                       Source: BCG                                                                                               42
Detailed measures across priority action                                                                  NAVIGATING BUSINESSES
                                  areas (1/3)                                                                                               THROUGH THE CRISIS

                                                           Flatten                                                             Fight                            Future
Establish crisis
management
                                     • Deep-dive into possible outcomes of disease spread, demand         • Frequently run scenarios and update plan; focus
                                       shifts, supply/ops issues, regulatory requirements, and              on understanding the de-averaged impact by

1      Develop Scenario-Based
         Planning Approach to
                                       potential operations restart; adjust for sector-specific issues
                                     • Perform scenario stress tests around cash-flow
                                                                                                            geography and line of business, depth of demand
                                                                                                            drop, duration of Fight phase
                                     • Establish preconditions for what it will take to get workforce     • Develop recommendations for daily planning,
            manage uncertainty         back to offices, factories, etc.                                     resources, supply chain, workforce, and other

                                                                                                                                                                         Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                     • Set up teams to work on different time horizons (flatten, fight,     stakeholder management as per modeled
                                       future) to avoid reverting to crisis management across all           scenarios

                                     • Establish nimble cross-functional Rapid Response &                 • To manage the massive complexity of "restarting",
                                       Transformation team (RR&T)                                           enhance Rapid Response & Transformation team
2     Create a Rapid Response
           and Transformation
                                     • Refine processes to manage the crisis situation, remote
                                       working, disruption in supply
                                                                                                            structures
                                                                                                          • Develop approach for how to bring people back to
                  (RR&T) team        • Ensure smooth transition of operations and workforce to              work, how/when to engage customers
                                       the 'new reality'                                                  • Establish governance and standardization to
                                     • Shift to digital/remote customer interactions                        effectively coordinate other areas from the RR&T

Navigate through
                                     • Define policies to keep employees safe with high morale            • Get ahead of the curve on team to manage policies
Flatten, Fight, and Future           • Engage across levels to retain talent                                to get teams back to work safely
                                     • Move to online/remote working; redefine rosters and train          • Take a clear view of forward demand and the new

3        Revamp Organization
         and People for the new
                                       for efficiency/effectiveness
                                     • Establish preconditions for coming back to the working
                                                                                                            normal: manage/restructure organization to fit
                                                                                                            capacity needs
                                       environment; clearly communicate                                   • Create dedicated focus to accelerate digital,
                         normal      • Build SWAT teams to address critical business areas,                 process automation, new ways of working
                                       such as product launch, digital channel redesign, retail
                                       delivery models

                                  Source: BCG                                                                                                                    43
Detailed measures across priority action                                                          NAVIGATING
                                                                                                                                      BUSINESSES
                                    areas (2/3)                                                                                       THROUGH THE CRISIS

                                                          Flatten                                                        Fight                             Future
Navigate through
Flatten, Fight and Future
                                      • Reach out to customers for their situation and needs,       • Assess changes in customers' behaviors
                                      • Drive actions to inspire confidence and ensure ability to   • Adapt and transform channels
4      Drive Topline Security &
               Customer Trust
                                        deliver (e.g., multichannel, people-light approaches)
                                      • Manage volatility in demand, and refine sales motions
                                                                                                      (e-commerce), sales, marketing spend, pricing,
                                                                                                      and support
                                        (e.g. to virtual) and objectives                            • Ramp up commercial efforts significantly to

                                                                                                                                                                    Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 20 April 2020 Version 2.3.
                                                                                                      seize market shifts; leverage learnings to
                                                                                                      accelerate digital capabilities

                                      • Take measures to ensure operations continuity:              • Ensure quick and safe restart of facilities; drive
                                        Workforce safety and management, stop-gap measures            centrally driven efficiency measures
                                        for supply chain, site readiness (access, maintenance,
5      Stabilize & restart Supply
         Chain, Manufacturing
                                        services, suppliers)
                                                                                                    • Set up capabilities (org, control tower) to
                                                                                                      manage unstable supply chain; explore alternate
                                      • Ensure open and direct communication with employees           networks, dual/multiple suppliers for critical
                                      • Explore solutions to retain key talent                        goods and services, delivery methods, etc.
                                                                                                    • Accelerate production as demand rebounds;
                                                                                                      account for product shifts

                                      • Build forecasts for COVID-19 impact on P&L, balance         • Build central team to simulate financials as per
                                        sheet, investor base                                          evolving scenarios; drive agile working ways
6         Manage Cost, Cash, &
                    Liquidity
                                      • Review capital sufficiency scenarios and possible effects
                                        on credit risk
                                                                                                    • Decisively take structural actions: TURN PMO,
                                                                                                      zero-based budgets, delayering/restructuring,
                                      • Manage credit and debt commitment for short term              re-base tech portfolio, etc.; deploy rapidly as
                                      • Create agile FY20-21 business plans and budgets to deal       speed is predictive of success in downturns
                                        with uncertainty

                                    Source: BCG                                                                                                             44
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