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                                 COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens
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                                   COVID-19 Crisis
                               Through a Migration Lens
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                                Migration and Development Brief 32
                                                              April 2020
Public Disclosure Authorized

                                                                            i
Migration and Development Brief reports an update on migration and remit-
tance flows as well as salient policy developments in the area of international
migration and development.

The Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNO-
MAD) is a global hub of knowledge and policy expertise on migration and
development. It aims to create and synthesize multidisciplinary knowledge
and evidence; generate a menu of policy options for migration policy mak-
ers; and provide technical assistance and capacity building for pilot projects,
evaluation of policies, and data collection.

KNOMAD is supported by a multi-donor trust fund established by the World
Bank. The European Commission, and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Interna-
tionale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH commissioned by and on behalf of
the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development
(BMZ), and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) are
the contributors to the trust fund.

The views expressed in this paper do not represent the views of the World
Bank or the sponsoring organizations. All queries should be addressed to
KNOMAD@worldbank.org. KNOMAD working papers, policy briefs, and a
host of other resources on migration are available at www.KNOMAD.org.
COVID-19 CRISIS
THROUGH A MIGRATION LENS
Migration and Development Brief 32
April 2020

Migration and Remittances Team
Social Protection and Jobs
World Bank
Migration and Development Brief 32

iv
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

Contents

Summary............................................................................................... viiii
Acknowledgements.................................................................................. xi

1. Viewing the COVID-19 Crisis through a Migration Lens..............................1
1.1 Impacts on Employment of Foreign Workers and Their Earnings.....................3
1.2 Impacts on Internal Migration..................................................................5
1.3 Remittance Flows to Decline in 2020......................................................... 6
1.4 Slower Progress in Reducing Remittance Costs and other
Migration-related Development Goals...........................................................9
1.5 Policy Responses Should Be Inclusive of Migrants and Their Remittances........10

2. Regional Trends in Migration and Remittance Flows.........................16
2.1 East Asia and the Pacific.......................................................................16
2.2 Europe and Central Asia........................................................ . ..............19
2.3 Latin America and the Caribbean................................................... . .......21
2.4 Middle East and North Africa.............................................................. . .23
2.5 South Asia..........................................................................................25
2.6 Sub-Saharan Africa....................................................................... ......27

Appendix:
Data Notes and Methodologies for Forecasting Remittances and FDI........ ....30
A.1 Estimation of Remittance Flows for 2019............................................. . ...30
A.2 Methodology for Forecasting Remittances for 2020...................................30
A.3 Data on Remittances, Gross Domestic Product, Remittance Prices,
Refugees, and Other Variables....................................................................30
A.4 Caveats.............................................................................................31
A.5 Methodology for Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment..............................31
References.......................................................................................... . ...33
Endnotes ...............................................................................................35

List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Three Phases of the Spanish Flu, 1918–19.........................................3
Figure 1.2 Migrant Workers Are More Vulnerable to Risks of
Unemployment During an Economic Crisis......................................................5
                                                                                                               v
Migration and Development Brief 32

vi
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

Figure 1.3 Event Study: Remittances to the Philippines Increased
During the Bird Flu, but Decreased During the Global Financial Crisis....................6
Figure 1.4 Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Expected to Decline in 2020..........................................................................7
Figure 1.5 Remittance Costs Remain High.......................................... . . . ..........9
Figure 2.1 Top Remittance Recipients in the East Asia and Pacific Region, 2019.....16
Figure 2.2 Remittance Fees to the Philippines Are Among the Lowest
in the East Asia and Pacific Region...............................................................17
Figure 2.3 Remittance Inflows to Europe and Central Asia
Remained Strong in 2019...................................................................... . . . ..18
Figure 2.4 Russia Continued to Be the Least Expensive Country
from Which to Send Money.........................................................................20
Figure 2.5 Remittances Represent a Large Share of
Foreign Income in Latin America..................................................................21
Figure 2.6 Cost of Sending Money to Latin American
and the Caribbean, 2018 and 2019..............................................................22
Figure 2.7 Remittance Inflows to the Middle East and North Africa in 2019...........23
Figure 2.8 Sending $200 within the Middle East and North Africa
Is Less Expensive Than Sending $200 from Outside the Region........................ 24
Figure 2.9 Top Remittance Recipients in South Asia in 2019.............................. 25
Figure 2.10 Remittance Costs in South Asia Vary Widely between
the Highest- and Lowest-Cost Corridors...................................................... 26
Figure 2.11 Top Remittance Recipients in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019................ 27
Figure 2.12 Remittance Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa Vary Considerably.............. 28

List of Tables

Table 1.1 Comparison of COVID-19 with Other Pandemics and
the Global Financial Crisis.............................................................................2
Table 1.2 Estimates and Projections of Remittance Flows to Low-
and Middle-Income Regions.........................................................................8
Table 1.3 Possible World Bank Interventions Addressing COVID-19’s
Effects on Migration and Remittances.......................................................... 13
Table A.1 Panel Data Regression Estimates for Remittances............................. 30
Table A.2 Panel Data Regression Estimates of Foreign Direct
Investment to Low- and Middle-Income Countries.......................................... 32

List of Boxes

Box 1 Access to Health Care For Migrant Workers........................................... 11

                                                                                                            vii
Migration and Development Brief 32

Summary

The economic crisis induced by COVID-19             have contributed to spreading the epidemic.
could be long, deep, and pervasive when             Governments need to address the challenges
viewed through a migration lens. Lockdowns,         facing internal migrants by including them in
travel bans, and social distancing have brought     health services and cash transfer and other
global economic activities to a near standstill.    social programs, and protecting them from
Host countries face additional challenges in        discrimination.
many sectors, such as health and agriculture,
that depend on the availability of migrant          Migration flows are likely to fall, but the stock
workers. Migrants face the risk of contagion        of international migrants may not decrease im-
and also the possible loss of employment,           mediately, since migrants cannot return to their
wages, and health insurance coverage. This          countries due to travel bans and disruption to
Migration and Development Brief provides            transportation services. Migrant workers tend
a prognosis of how these events might affect        to be vulnerable to the loss of employment and
global trends in international economic migra-      wages during an economic crisis in their host
tion and remittances in 2020 and 2021.              country, more so than native-born workers.
                                                    Lockdowns in labor camps and dormitories
Considering that migrants tend to be concen-        can also increase the risk of contagion among
trated in urban economic centers (cities), and      migrant workers. Many migrants have been
are vulnerable to infection by the coronavirus,     stranded due to the suspension of transport
there is a need to include migrants in efforts to   services. Some host countries have granted
fight the coronavirus. Migrant remittances pro-     visa extensions and temporary amnesty to mi-
vide an economic lifeline to poor households in     grant workers, and some have suspended the
many countries; a reduction in remittance flows     involuntary return of migrants.
could increase poverty and reduce households’
access to much-needed health services. The          In 2020, remittance flows to low- and mid-
crisis could exacerbate xenophobic, discrimi-       dle-income countries are expected to drop
natory treatment of migrants, which calls for       by around 20 percent to $445 billion, from
greater vigilance against such practices.           $554 billion in 2019. In the midst of this sharp
                                                    decline, the relative importance of remittance
This Brief is largely focused on international      flows as a source of external financing for low-
migrants, but governments should not ignore         and middle-income countries is expected to
the plight of internal migrants. The magnitude      rise. This is because foreign direct investment is
of internal migration is about two-and-a-half       expected to decline by even more, due to travel
times that of international migration. Lock-        bans, disruption of international trade, and
downs, loss of employment, and social distanc-      wealth effects of declines in the stock prices of
ing prompted a chaotic and painful process          multinational companies. This Brief estimates
of mass return for internal migrants in India       that it could fall by more than 35 percent.
and many countries in Latin America. Thus,          Private portfolio flows through stock and bond
the COVID-19 containment measures might             markets could fall by over 80 percent.

viii
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

The global average cost of remittances de-         So far, government policy responses to the
clined to 6.8 percent in the first quarter of      COVID-19 crisis have largely excluded mi-
2020, from 6.9 percent a year previous. This re-   grants and their families back home. But there
mains far above the Sustainable Development        is a strong case for including migrants in the
Goal target of 3 percent. Remittance service       near-term health strategies of all countries,
providers have been affected by lockdowns,         given the externalities associated with the
shorter business hours, and social distancing.     health status of an entire population in the face
This has increased the relative importance of      of a highly contagious pandemic. Also, govern-
electronic transfers, since some cash-based        ments would do well to consider short-, medi-
services and remittance operators have been        um-, and long-term interventions to support: (i)
closed or impacted negatively by the crisis. Al-   stranded migrants; (ii) the remittance infra-
though the use of digital payment instruments      structure; (iii) loss of subsistence income for
for sending remittances is increasing, poorer      families back home; and (iv) access to health,
and irregular migrants often lack access to on-    housing, education, and jobs for migrant work-
line services. They require the origination and    ers in host/transit countries and their families
distribution of funds through banks, payment       back home. The pandemic has also highlighted
cards, or mobile money. Online transactions        the global shortage of health professionals
(like cash-based services) require remittance      and an urgent need for global cooperation and
service providers to exercise vigilance against    long-term investments in medical training.
fraud and financial crime, to comply with
anti-money laundering and countering the
financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regulations.
However, such due diligence has become diffi-
cult amid staff shortages.

                                                                                                  ix
Migration and Development Brief 32

x
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

Acknowledgements

This Brief was prepared by Dilip Ratha, Su-      Oya Pinar Ardic Alper, Eldira Dashi, Harish
priyo De, Eung Ju Kim, Ganesh Seshan, and        Natarajan, Roberta Gatti, Mattias K. A. Lund-
Nadege Desiree Yameogo of the Migration          berg, Martin Rama, Hans Timmer, and Albert
and Remittances Team, Jobs Group, Social         G. Zeufack for helpful comments and inputs.
Protection and Jobs Global Practice; and Sonia   Thanks to Immaculate Nafula Machasio and
Plaza of the Finance, Competitiveness, and       Maja Vezmar for research assistance, Fayre
Innovation Global Practice. Thanks to Michal     Makeig for editing, and Rebecca Ong for com-
Rutkowski, Ian Walker, Asli Demirguc-Kunt,       munications support.

                                                                                             xi
Migration and Development Brief 32

1
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

1. Viewing COVID-19 Crisis Through a
   Migration Lens: Remittance Flows are
   Expected to Decline by 20 Percent in 2020

   The economic crisis induced by COVID-19 is                                      The exception is the so-called Spanish flu of
   deeper and more pervasive than any other pan-                                   1918–20, which was global. It infected around
   demic-induced crisis since the 1900s. Table 1.1                                 500 million people (one-third of the world pop-
   briefly compares a few well-documented crises.                                  ulation at the time) and resulted in 17–50 mil-
   Most pandemics have affected a few countries                                    lion deaths between March 1918 and March
   and a small share of the world population.                                      1920, in three recurrent phases

   Table 1.1 Comparison of Covid-19 with Other Pandemics and the Global
   Financial Crisis
                                                                                                                           Cases            Average
                                                                             Case                                          as % of          change in
                                           Cases as
                        Cases              % of world
                                                           Deaths            Fatality
                                                                                          Most Affected Countries
                                                                                                                           population       GDP growth
                        (thousands)                        (thousands)       Rate                                          of most          in the most
                                           Population
                                                                             (%)                                           affected         affected
                                                                                                                           countries        countries

                                                                                          China, India, Indonesia,
    SPANISH FLU                                            17,400–           2.7%–        Russia, United States of
                        500,000            ~25%                                                                            ~28%             0.8%
    (1918–20)*                                             50,000            10%          America (global pandemic
                                                                                          impacting many countries)

                                                                                          Canada; China; Hong
    SARS
                        8                  Negligible      0.7               9.56%        Kong SAR, China;                 0.01%            3.1%
    (2002-2004)
                                                                                          Singapore

    H1N1
                                                                                          Australia, China, Mexico,
    (Swine Flu)         762,630*           11%             284               0.04%                                         0.06%            -2.5%
                                                                                          Thailand, United States
    (2009–10)**

                                                                                          Islamic Republic of Iran,
    MERS                                                                                  Jordan, Republic of Korea,
                        2.5                Negligible      0.8               34.38%                                        0.001%           -3.7%
    (2012)                                                                                Saudi Arabia, United Arab
                                                                                          Emirates

    Ebola                                                                                 Guinea, Liberia,
                        28.7               Negligible      11                39.52%                                        0.16%            -8.6%
    (2014–16)                                                                             Sierra Leone

                                                                                          France, Germany, Italy,
                                                                                          Spain, United States
    COVID-19
                        2,019              .03%            119               5.92%        (global pandemic                 0.22%            -8.7%
    (2019–20)
                                                                                          impacting 210
                                                                                          countries)***
                                                                                                                                            High-income
    Memo: global
                                                                                          Countries of all                                  countries:
    financial crisis
                                                                                          income levels                                     -3.7%;
    (2008–2009)
                                                                                                                                            LMICs: +-3.3%
   Sources: KNOMAD website; WDI, CBC, and WHO estimates; Johns Hopkins website; Lancet; IMF 2020; UN Population data; Maddison
   Historical Statistics.
   Note: The average share of deaths and changes in GDP growth attributed to Spanish flu is listed for only India, Indonesia, and the United
   States, countries for which GDP data are available. GDP = gross domestic product; LMICs = low- and middle-income countries; MERS =
   Middle East respiratory syndrome; SARS = severe acute respiratory syndrome.
   *WHO and CDC estimates of cases. The number of Spanish flu cases is from https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influen-
   za-pandemic-in-history; case percentages of population are broad approximations, and period economic data are from the Maddison
   Historical Statistics.
   **The H1N1 swine flu outbreak occurred in the midst of the 2008–09 global financial crisis, thereby making it difficult to determine the real
   economic effects of the pandemic.
   ***Top five countries by case number as of April 13, 2020.                                                                                             2
   COVID-19 is now a global pandemic impacting 213 countries, areas or territories per the World Health Organization.
Migration and Development Brief 32

(figure 1.1). If that pattern were to be repeat-                              1.1 Impacts On Employment Of
ed, the COVID-19 crisis could last longer than                                Foreign Workers And Their Earnings
currently projected by many governments, with
several recurrences over the next 24 months.                                  These measures have brought global economic
                                                                              activities to a near standstill. Such simultane-
Fast-spreading contagion, high case fatality                                  ous suspension of activities in all parts of the
rates, inadequate medical facilities, and a lack                              world is unprecedented in history. Worldwide,
of vaccine cure (so far) have prompted societ-                                many businesses, especially small and medi-
ies to lock down, reduced business hours and                                  um enterprises and informal businesses, have
practice social distancing. A response to the                                 closed. According to the International Mon-
coronavirus outbreak in China in December                                     etary Fund (IMF), the world economy is ex-
2019 was the imposition of a ban on interna-                                  pected to contract by 3 percent in 2020 in the
tional travel and quarantines for international                               baseline scenario, a change of nearly 6 percent
arrivals. Subsequently, most countries have                                   compared with 2019. Advanced economies are
imposed a ban on the arrival of not only for-                                 projected to decline by 6.1 percent and emerg-
eigners but also of returning nationals.                                      ing market and developing economies by
                                                                              1.0–2.2 percent in 2020. Also, there is substan-
                                                                              tial risk of continued economic recession well
                                                                              into 2021. The worst case scenario anticipates

Figure 1.1 Three Phases of the Spanish Flu, 1918–19
(Deaths per 1000 persons, United Kingdom)

         25

         20

         15

         10

          5

          0
              8

                                                           8
                                                           8
                                          8

                                                                               8
                            8

                                                                                                                        9
                                                                                                    9

                                                                                                    9
                                                                              8

                                                                                                                       9
            91

                                                         91
                                                        91
                                        91

                                                                            91
                          91

                                                                                                                     91
                                                                                                  91

                                                                                                  91
                                                                            91

                                                                                                                     91
          -1

                                                      -1
                                                      -1
                                      -1

                                                                          -1
                        -1

                                                                                                                   -1
                                                                                                -1

                                                                                                -1
                                                                         -1

                                                                                                                  -1
        un

                                                    ct
                                                   ep
                                    ug

                                                                       ov
                      ul

                                                                                                                ar
                                                                                              an

                                                                                              eb
                                                                       ec

                                                                                                                pr
                                                 -O
                    -J

                                                                                                              -M
      -J

                                                                     -N
                                                -S

                                                                    -D
                                  -A

                                                                                            -J

                                                                                                             -A
                                                                                           -F
                  29
    29

                                              29

                                                                                         29
                                              29

                                                                                         28
                                                                  29
                                29

                                                                                                           31

                                                                                                           30
                                                                  29

              Source: Data are based on Taubenberger and Morens (2006: 15).

3
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

even lower growth (IMF 2020).1 According to         The crisis has greatly increased the demand for
the latest regional economic updates published      health care services, and a global competition
by the World Bank, real economic growth could       has already begun with many developed coun-
fall to -0.5 percent in the East Asia and Pacific   tries announcing incentives to recruit doctors
region, 4.4 percent in Europe and Central Asia,     and nurses from abroad. There is a global
-4.6 percent in Latin America and the Caribbe-      need to train more health professionals and
an (LAC), 1.8 percent in the Middle East and        provide recognition of skills in host countries in
North Africa (MENA), -2.8 percent in South          the long term.
Asia, and -5.1 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa
(Arezki et al. 2020; Calderon et al. 2020; World    Migrant workers tend to be particularly vulner-
Bank 2020a–d).                                      able, more than native-born workers, to losses
                                                    of employment and wages during an economic
When viewed through a migration lens, the           crisis in their host country. During the global
economic crisis induced by COVID-19 could be        financial crisis, the average unemployment
even longer, deeper, and more pervasive than        rate for foreign-born workers in the EU-28
these estimates imply. In host countries, the       countries rose from 11.1 percent in 2007 to
COVID-19 crisis has created additional chal-        16.4 percent in 2009, significantly higher than
lenges in sectors that depend on the availabili-    the increase among native-born workers. Even
ty of migrant workers. The crisis has dispropor-    a decade later, in 2018, the unemployment
tionately impacted food and hospitality, retail     rate remained high for foreign-born workers,
and wholesale, tourism and transport, and           while it had fallen below the pre-crisis rate for
manufacturing. As the farming season begins         native-born workers. The unemployment rate
in many countries, there are emerging signs of      for foreign-born workers is especially high in
labor shortages in the agriculture sector of in-    Italy and Spain, which have been hit hard by
dustrial countries that rely on migrant workers.    the coronavirus.
Given the seasonality of agriculture, worker
shortages have given rise to concerns about         Migration flows are likely to fall, but the stock
food security later in the year.                    of international migrants may not decrease
                                                    immediately. In 2019, there were around 272
The crisis has presented a challenge for the        million international migrants (including 26
cross-sectoral mobility of workers, which could     million refugees). Under normal circumstances,
be particularly hard for lower-skilled migrant      migrants losing jobs would consider return-
workers, especially informal and undocument-        ing home. However, that has become nearly
ed workers. During the global financial crisis      impossible because of travel bans and the sus-
in 2009, many migrant workers moved from            pension of transportation services. As a result,
construction to agriculture and retail. Such        the rate of voluntary return migration is likely
intersectoral movement may be difficult at this     to fall, except in the case of a few cross-border
time because the sectors that need more work-       migration corridors in the South (such as Ven-
ers—such as health and information technolo-        ezuela–Colombia, Nepal–India, Zimbabwe–
gy—require specific skills and prior training.      South Africa, Myanmar–Thailand).2 In other
                                                    words, more people will stay on in their host
                                                    country than is typical.

                                                                                                     4
Migration and Development Brief 32

Figure 1.2 Migrant Workers Are More Vulnerable to Risks of Unemployment During
an Economic Crisis
Unemployment rate (%), EU-28,
during global financial crisis 2008-2009                     Native Born
                                                             Foreign Born

                                           16.4

                                                               12.3
                 11.1           11.1

      7.3
                                                     6.9

            2007                    2009                   2018

Source: Eurostat data.
Note: EU = European Union.

In the long term, income gaps between coun-        those from international migrants, serve as a
tries constitute the most important driver of      lifeline and insurance for families left behind.
migration pressure. The average per capita
income in high-income countries was 54 times       The COVID-19 outbreak has placed many in-
that in low-income countries, according to the     ternal migrant workers in dire conditions, many
World Bank (2019). The present crisis will not     losing their (mostly informal) jobs and unable
lower the income gap sufficiently to reduce        to return home due to disruption to public
migration pressures. On the contrary, income       transport services and movement restrictions.
inequality between the low-skilled and high-       This is the reality for most migrant workers,
skilled is likely to increase due to the crisis.   especially those working in the informal sector
                                                   and living in overcrowded slums.
1.2 Impacts on Internal Migration
                                                   Lockdowns, travel bans, and social distancing
The number of internal migrants is about           measures in response to the crisis have dispro-
two-and-a-half times that of international         portionately affected internal migrant work-
migrants. China and India each have over           ers, who found themselves stranded, unable
100 million internal migrants. For the poorer      to return either to their places of work or their
sections of the population, especially from un-    communities of origin. Without adequate
der-developed rural areas, migration to urban      access to housing, basic water and sanitation,
economic centers provides an escape from           health facilities, or social safety nets to help
poverty and unemployment. Remittances from         them survive such restrictions, these migrants
these migrants, typically smaller amounts than     have become even more vulnerable to conta-
5
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

gion risks. If discrimination and xenophobic                                basic provisions to provide shelter to stranded
attitudes affected migrants before, the current                             migrants in cities and districts of destination,
crisis has exacerbated such social tensions.                                transit, and origin. Some countries are provid-
The crisis has created a chaotic and painful                                ing cash support to affected and vulnerable
process of mass return for internal migrants in                             groups with a specific allocation for internal
India and many countries in Latin America. As                               migrants and returned migrant workers (World
a result, the COVID-19 containment measures                                 Food Program 2020).
might even have contributed to spreading the
epidemic. The loss of jobs and livelihood has                               1.3 Remittance Flows to Decline in 2020
also ruptured an important lifeline to rural
households in many countries.                                               The persistence of the stock of international
                                                                            migrants over an economic cycle or a crisis is
Governments need to address the challenges                                  an important factor in the persistence or resil-
facing internal migrants by including them in                               ience of remittances. Not only do new migrants
programs that provide health services and                                   send money home but also those migrants who
cash transfer and other social programs, and                                arrived a long time ago. Indeed, migrants new
by protecting them from discrimination. Some                                and old increase the amounts they send home
governments are already providing some as-                                  during times of crisis and hardship in their
sistance to these vulnerable groups who are at                              country of origin, a phenomenon noted in the
risk of spreading the virus. For instance, in In-                           literature as the countercyclicality of remittanc-
dia, the government has now set up camps with                               es. Remittances (as a share of GDP) tend to be

Figure 1.3 Event Study: Remittances to the Philippines Increased During the Bird Flu,
but Decreased During the Global Financial Crisis
Percent change (y-o-y, 3-month moving average)
                                                                                                            Bird Flu (Nov. 2003)
30                                                                                                          Financial Crisis (Sep. 2008)

25

20

15

 10

  5

  0
             -4                           -2                           0                                2                      4

                                                               Time (month)
Data Source: World Bank–KNOMAD remittance inflows dataset.
Note: t = 0 November 2003 and September 2008. It represents the month at which the outbreak reported.
                                                                                                                                           6
Migration and Development Brief 32

largest in poor countries (8.9 percent in 2019),                               South Asia turned out to be larger than expect-
small island developing states (7.7 percent),                                  ed in the second half of 2019.
and those in fragile and conflict-affected
situations (9.2 percent).3 During a crisis in the                              In 2020, remittance flows to LMICs are expect-
host country, however, remittances can decline.                                ed to decline by around 20 percent, marking
For instance, during the global financial crisis,                              the sharpest decline in recent history (table
remittance flows to low- and middle-income                                     1.2 and figure 1.4). This is not so much due to
countries (LMICs) declined by 5 percent in                                     a decline in the stock of international mi-
2009. Similarly, the event study in figure 1.3                                 grants, but largely due to a fall in wages and
shows the countercyclical increase in remit-                                   the employment of migrant workers in host
tance flows to the Philippines during the bird flu                             nations due to COVID-19 (see appendix for
pandemic in November 2003, and a procycli-                                     the methodology behind this projection). The
cal decline in response to the global financial                                decline in remittance flows is expected to be
crisis starting in September 2008.                                             sharpest in Europe and Central Asia, South
                                                                               Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. These region-
In 2019, remittance flows to LMICs became                                      al patterns are affected by COVID-19 and
larger than foreign direct investment (FDI),                                   also a fall in the price of oil, which affects the
an important milestone for monitoring re-                                      economies of Russia and the Gulf Cooperation
source flows to these countries. Recent data                                   Council (GCC) countries in particular. Russia
reveal that in 2019, remittance flows to LMICs                                 is the most important source of remittances
reached $554 billion, slightly higher than our                                 to Central Asia; outbound remittances from
earlier projection ($551 billion) published in                                 Russia, as expressed in U.S. dollars, would also
October 2019.4 Remittance flows to LAC and                                     be impacted by the weakening of the ruble

Figure 1.4 Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries Expected to
Decline in 2020
($ billion)

900
                                                                                                            FDI

700

500                                                                                                       Remittances

300

100                                                                                                      ODA

                                                                                            Portfolio debt
                                                                                            and equity flows
-100
       90

                                96

                                                                                                                                            f
               92

                       94

                                                                                                                                 18
                                                                                                               14

                                                                                                                        16
                                                 00
                                         98

                                                                             06

                                                                                     08

                                                                                              10

                                                                                                       12
                                                           02

                                                                    04

                                                                                                                                          20
     19

                              19
             19

                     19

                                                                                                                               20
                                                                                                             20

                                                                                                                      20
                                               20
                                       19

                                                                           20

                                                                                   20

                                                                                            20

                                                                                                     20
                                                         20

                                                                  20

                                                                                                                                        20

    Sources: World Bank staff estimates, World Development Indicators, and IMF Balance of Payments statistics.
    Note: See appendix A in World Bank (2017) for data and forecast methods. FDI = foreign direct investment; ODA = official development assistance.

7
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

against the dollar. Such valuation effects would                             tion of international trade, and wealth effects
also be felt in outbound remittance flows from                               of declines in the stock prices of multinational
Europe through the weakening of the euro                                     companies; private portfolio flows through
against the U.S. dollar.5 Outbound remittances                               stock and bond markets may decline by about
from the GCC countries would be impacted                                     80 percent.6
by the recession induced by the coronavirus as
well as a fall in oil prices. Remittance flows to                            Medium-term downside risks dominate the re-
South Asia, East Asia, and the MENA countries                                mittance outlook for 2021. The recovery from
would be impacted as well (see section 2 for                                 the crisis is likely to be prolonged and arduous.
regional trends).                                                            Global and regional growth in 2021 is likely to
                                                                             remain subdued. Given these global trends,
Despite the decline, however, remittance flows                               remittances to LMICs are expected to grow at
are expected to become even more important                                   about 5.6 percent in 2021 to $460 billion, well
as a source of external financing for LMICs                                  below the 2017 level of $487 billion and far
(figure 1.4). In 2020, FDI is expected to decline                            from the recent records of 2019 (table 1.2).
by over 35 percent due to travel bans, disrup-

Table 1.2 Estimates and Projections of Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-
Income Regions

                     Region                            2009         2016          2017          2018        2019e         2020f         2021f
                                                                                              ($ billion)

 Low and Middle Income                                  307           446          487           531           554          445           470

   East Asia and Pacific                                 80           128          134           143           147          128           138

   Europe and Central Asia                               36            46           55            61           65            47            49

   Latin America and the Caribbean                       55            73           81            89           96            77            82

   Middle-East and North Africa                          33            51           57            58           59            47            48

   South Asia                                            75           111          118           132           140          109           115

   Sub-Saharan Africa                                    29            39           42            48           48            37            38

 World                                                  437           597           643          694           714          572           602

                                                                                      (Growth rate, percent)

 Low and Middle Income                                  -5.0          -1.5          9.1          9.0           4.4         -19.7          5.6

   East Asia and Pacific                                -4.8          -0.5          5.1          6.8           2.6         -13.0          7.5

   Europe and Central Asia                             -14.7          -0.3          20           10.9          6.6         -27.5          5.0

   Latin America and the Caribbean                     -11.3          7.4           11           9.9           7.4         -19.3          5.9

   Middle-East and North Africa                         -6.2          -1.2         12.1          1.4           2.6         -19.6          1.6

   South Asia                                            4.5          -5.9          6.2          12.1          6.1         -22.1          5.8

   Sub-Saharan Africa                                   -0.2          -8.3          9.3          13.7          -0.5        -23.1          4.0

 World                                                  -5.1          -0.9          7.7          8.0           2.8         -19.9          5.2

Source: World Bank–KNOMAD.
Note: See appendix A in World Bank (2017) for data and forecast methods. Projections for 2020 and 2021 are based on methods described in the
appendix to this Brief. e = estimate; f = forecast.

                                                                                                                                                8
Migration and Development Brief 32

1.4 Slower Progress in Reducing Remit-                                       and government policies in receiving countries.
tance Costs and other Migration-relat-                                       According to the Remittance Prices Worldwide
ed Development Goals                                                         database, the average cost of sending $200 to
                                                                             LMICs was 6.8 percent in the first quarter (Q1)
The World Bank closely monitors three Sustain-                               of 2020, slightly below the cost one year earlier
able Development Goal (SDG) indicators for                                   (figure 1.5).8 The global average cost of remit-
which it is a custodian: increasing the volume                               tances declined from 6.9 percent in 2019 Q1 to
of remittances as a percentage of gross do-                                  6.8 percent in 2020 Q1. This is still more than
mestic product (GDP) (SDG indicator 17.3.2),                                 double the SDG target (10.c) of 3 percent by
reducing remittance costs (SDG indicator                                     2030.9 Sub-Saharan Africa continued to have
10.c.1), and reducing recruitment costs paid                                 the highest average cost, at about 9 percent.
by migrant workers (SDG indicator 10.7.1).7                                  Remittance costs across many African corri-
Progress on all three indicators is projected to                             dors and small islands in the Pacific remained
slow in 2020, although initial data shows that                               above 10 percent. Intraregional migrants in
remittance costs through digital channels are                                Sub-Saharan Africa comprised over two-thirds
decreasing.                                                                  of all international migration from the region.
                                                                             Yet intraregional remittance costs are very high
Remittance costs remained above the SDG                                      in the region (figure 2.12 in section 2).
target and may increase due to disruptions to
remittance services, though there are counter-                               Brick-and-mortar remittance service provid-
vailing forces such as the growing use of digital                            ers (RSPs) have been affected by lockdowns,
services, increased competition for business,                                reduced business hours, and social distancing.

Figure 1.5 Remittance Costs Remain High
(Percent)
                                                                       Q1 2019
10                                                                                                                                   9.25
                                                                       Q1 2020
                                                                                                                                            8.90

    8
                                                                                             7.21
                                                                                                    7.13
           6.94
                  6.79                                                  6.67                                     6.76 7.00
                                                                               6.48
                                                    6.20
    6                                                      5.97
                                5.04 4.95

    4

    2

    0
            Global                SAR                  LAC                 ECA                 EAP                MENA                  SSA
           Average

Sources: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database.
Note: Red dotted line represents the Sustainable Development Goal 10 target of 3 percent. EAP = East Asia and Pacific; ECA = Europe and Central Asia;
LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; MENA = Middle East and North Africa; SAR = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.

9
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

There is less disruption and perhaps a relative   tries have announced incentives or relaxed visa
increase in remittances sent via digital pay-     restrictions to recruit health professionals from
ment instruments. However, poor and irregular     foreign countries.
migrants have lower or no access to digital
payment instruments—such as bank accounts,        In general, most countries use residency crite-
payment cards, or mobile wallets—to fund or       ria to determine whether foreigners are entitled
disburse remittance transactions. Many poor       to public health care services (box 1). So far,
households in LMICs also lack access to trans-    government policy responses have mostly
action accounts to receive remittances. Online    excluded migrants. There is a strong argument
transactions also require RSPs to be able to      for including migrants in the near-term health
remotely collect and verify identity documents    strategies of all countries, recognizing the
and exercise additional vigilance against         positive externalities associated with health, or
higher risks of fraud and financial crime, to     conversely, the negative externalities associat-
comply with anti-money laundering and coun-       ed with pandemics.
tering of financing of terrorism (AML/CFT)
regulations.10 However, such due diligence has    Table 1.3 summarizes short-, medium-, and
become difficult amid staff shortages.11 The      long-term interventions that could be consid-
disruption of formal remittance services and      ered by the World Bank Group. Specifically,
a lack of access to banking or online services    operational interventions could be considered
may shift remittances to informal channels.       to support: (i) stranded migrants; (ii) access to
                                                  health care, housing, education, and jobs for
Some RSPs have temporarily waived the fees        migrant workers in host/transit countries and
for sending money home, but such waivers are      their families back home; and (iii) remittance
not sustainable. To encourage RSPs to facil-      infrastructure.
itate remittance inflows, some governments
(notably that of Pakistan) have announced tax     Keeping remittances flowing
incentives equivalent to the remittance fees
waived.                                           The World Bank has initiated a weekly sur-
                                                  vey of remittance costs in several important
1.5 Policy Responses Should Be Inclu-             corridors to assess the effects of the COVID-19
sive of Migrants and Their Remittances            crisis on the remittances sector. Initial find-
                                                  ings show that authorities in many sending
Lockdowns and travel bans directly affect the     and receiving countries observed a decline
employment and wages of foreign workers.          in remittance flows and expect this trend to
Lockdowns in labor camps and dormitories can      continue. RSPs are not classified as essential
increase the risk of contagion among migrant      services. As such, their services have been
workers. Many migrants have been stranded         interrupted or their working hours reduced.
due to the suspension of transport services.      The use of digital channels for sending money
Lockdowns have also closed the offices of         is increasing due to the closure of brick-and-
RSPs, some of whom are also grappling with        mortar services.12 Meanwhile, a large percent-
employees who have fallen sick, thus affecting    age of migrant workers and their families back
the flow of remittances.                          home are unbanked or under-banked, and are
                                                  facing challenges in meeting the due diligence
To address shortages of workers in agriculture    requirements of digital channels. In the short
and health sectors, some countries have grant-    run, the services that remain available are in
ed visas to attract agricultural workers, even    general priced lower than those that preced-
chartering flights to bring them in. Many coun-   ed the COVID-19 measures, according to

                                                                                                  10
Migration and Development Brief 32

Box 1. A Comparison of National                    Health services for migrants tend to be asso-
                                                   ciated with higher costs to varying degrees.
Policies Regarding Migrant Workers’
                                                   In Qatar, migrants seeking to obtain a health
Access to Health Care
                                                   card that grants access to a subsidized public
                                                   health system pay only a slightly higher fee
According to the forthcoming Migration and
                                                   than do GCC nationals.15 In Malaysia, foreign-
the Law Database, economic migrants13 enjoy
                                                   ers using the public health system are charged
full access to public health care in 80 out of a
                                                   significantly higher fees than are citizens.
total of 132 sampled countries, provided that
general requirements for participation in the
                                                   In response to the COVID-19 crisis, several
respective scheme are fulfilled.14 Another 40
                                                   host countries have temporarily introduced
countries allow migrants access to health care
                                                   new policies or relaxed requirements to facil-
conditionally, while 12 countries (most of which
                                                   itate migrant workers’ access to health care
are located in South Asia and the Middle East
                                                   protection. Examples include the following:
a North Africa regions) completely exclude
migrants from their health care systems.
                                                   •    The Portuguese government announced
                                                        that all immigrants with pending res-
Many countries use residency to determine
                                                        idence applications will be treated as
whether foreigners are entitled to public health
                                                        permanent residents until July 1, 2020,
care services. The national laws and regu-
                                                        due to COVID-19. This measure will allow
lations of Portugal and Dominican Republic
                                                        migrants access to public social security
link health entitlements to the residency status
                                                        system, including health care.
rather than nationality of a person. In Croatia,
Bulgaria, Czech Republic, the United States
                                                   •    The Malaysian Ministry of Health an-
of America, and Singapore, a person needs to
                                                        nounced that foreigners will be exempted
obtain permanent residency status first in order
                                                        from registration, examination, treatment,
to enjoy health care protection on par with cit-
                                                        and hospitalization fees related to the
izens. Under Turkish laws and regulations, for-
                                                        treatment of COVID-19.
eigners may benefit from general health insur-
ance schemes provided that they have resided
                                                   •    The UK government announced that no
in Turkey more than a year. Other national laws
                                                        charges will be made in the diagnosis or
delegate the role of protecting migrants’ health
                                                        treatment of COVID-19 for all people,
to employers. In the United Arab Emirates and
                                                        regardless of their residency/immigration
Kuwait, employers are required to cover the
                                                        status.
costs of health insurance for migrant workers
or face penalties for noncompliance.
                                                   •    The Qatari government is providing free
                                                        health care to migrant workers affected by
Access to health care for economic migrants
                                                        the COVID-19 virus in the Doha Industrial
can be restricted to emergency life-saving care
                                                        Area.
or infectious disease prevention. Economic mi-
grants in Kazakhstan have the right to receive
                                                   Source: Migration and the Law Database, World Bank (2020).
free medical care only for acute diseases that
are dangerous to others. The list of such dis-
eases is determined and updated by a regula-
tory health authority.

11
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

data collected in 2020 Q1.16 Some RSPs have
removed their fees and have been using social
media to raise awareness of digital payment
instruments (where applicable).

It would be important for RSPs and authorities
to work together to mitigate the effects of the
crisis and encourage the adoption of digital
payments, greater use of regulated channels,
and wider availability of cost-efficient services.
In the meantime, the World Bank will continue
to monitor and report on the availability of
remittance services worldwide, and work with
stakeholders to improve the transparency and
efficiency of the remittances market toward
a reduction of the still high cost of remitting
money internationally, guided by the CPSS-
World Bank General Principles for Internation-
al Remittances (CPSS-WB 2007). The World
Bank has issued a call to action to support the
remittances sector (see table 1.3).

                                                     12
Migration and Development Brief 32

Table 1.3 Possible World Bank Interventions Addressing COVID-19’s Effects on Migration and Remittances

                                            Supporting access to social
                                                                                          Supporting remittance
     Supporting stranded migrants         services for migrants and their
                                                                                             infrastructure
                                                      families

                                                      SHORT TERM

  • Evacuation of stranded migrants.     • Set up grants to improve access           • Remittance service providers
                                         to basic health services, education,        (RSPs) have been facing store
  • Granting temporary protected
                                         and housing for host and migrant            closures and disruption of
  status to foreign nationals with
                                         communities.                                remittance services.
  expired visas.
                                         • Extend cash transfer programs to          • Support could be provided to RSPs
  • Health awareness campaigns and
                                         support internal and international          to be declared as essential services.
  provision of treatment to migrants.
                                         migrants, especially those who have
                                                                                     • Incentives (such as subsidies) could
  • Identifying options to serve         lost their jobs in host cities/countries.
                                                                                     be offered to RSPs to reduce the cost
  stranded migrants (including
                                         • Support social services and provide       of remittance services. For example,
  internal and international migrants,
                                         cash transfers to families left behind.     RSPs could claim a tax credit for
  informal workers, and those without
                                                                                     waiving remittance fees paid by
  proper documentation).                 • Facilitate the provision of remote
                                                                                     remitters.
                                         mentoring and medical advice by
  • Supporting informal businesses
                                         diaspora doctors, and the temporary         • Certain AML/CFT requirements
  that are likely to employ migrants,
                                         return of such professionals.               could be temporarily simplified to
  conditional on keeping migrants on
                                                                                     incentivize online and mobile money
  the payroll.                           • Include migrants in programs that
                                                                                     transfers, following a risk-based
                                         provide a temporary moratorium
                                                                                     approach.
                                         on debt service in countries of origin
                                         (including loans taken out for paying       • Public authorities would do well to
                                         recruitment costs) and rent payments        identify, remove, or mitigate factors
                                         in host countries.                          that prevent customers or providers
                                                                                     from leveraging digital payment
                                                                                     instruments for remittances.

                                            Supporting access to social
                                                                                          Supporting remittance
     Supporting stranded migrants         services for migrants and their
                                                                                             infrastructure
                                                      families

                                                     MEDIUM TERM

                                         • Revisit insurance regulations that        • Support countries in improving
                                         may constrain migrants from buying          data on migration and remittances.
                                         medical insurance for families back
                                                                                     • Support efforts to reduce
                                         home.
                                                                                     remittance costs.
                                         • Make medical insurance benefits
                                                                                     • Facilitate emerging remittance
                                         offered by host countries portable to
                                                                                     models using digital means.
                                         origin countries.
                                                                                     • Achieve universal financial access
                                         • Expand origin countries’ social-
                                                                                     in receiving and sending countries.
                                         welfare schemes to migrants abroad
                                         (i.e., to address unemployment spells).     • Enhance domestic retail payment
                                                                                     systems and grant RSPs access.
                                         • Facilitate the recognition of skills
                                         of migrants and refugees in host            • Promote interoperability.
                                         countries to help with the shortage
                                         of skills.                                  • Enhance AML/CFT compliance
                                                                                     and use of digital ID solutions.

                                                                                     • Support cross-border payment
                                                                                     solutions for remittances.

13
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

                                              Supporting access to social
                                                                                        Supporting remittance
  Supporting stranded migrants              services for migrants and their
                                                                                           infrastructure
                                                        families

                                                       LONG TERM

  • Support safe and regular               • Set up twinning arrangements to       • Support efforts to reduce
  migration programs.                      train more doctors and nurses in        remittance costs.
                                           low- and middle-income countries in
  • Support national strategies (on
                                           collaboration with medical schools in
  a demand basis) to increase the
                                           high-income countries.
  share of regular migrants in the total
  migrant population in host countries.    • Support efforts to reduce
                                           recruitment costs.

                                           • Establish universal health programs
                                           that include migrants irrespective of
                                           their legal status.

                                                                                                                 14
Migration and Development Brief 32

15
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

2. Regional Trends in Migration and
   Remittance Flows

   The outlook for remittances for 2020 remains                               tries such as those in the Pacific Islands could
   as uncertain as the impact of COVID-19 on                                  see households at risk as remittance incomes
   global growth and may depend to a large                                    decline over this period (World Bank 2020a). A
   extent on the measures taken to restrain the                               recovery of 7.5 percent growth for the region is
   spread of the disease. In the past, remittances                            anticipated in 2021.
   have been countercyclical during times of di-
   saster in the recipient economy. This time, how-                           Remittances to the Philippines rose by 4 per-
   ever, the pandemic has affected all countries,                             cent in 2019, to reach $35.2 billion, up from
   and the economic fallout is likely to vary due to                          the 3 percent growth seen in 2018 (figure 2.1).
   country-specific characteristics.                                          Year-on-year growth in remittances for Janu-
                                                                              ary 2020 was 6.6 percent but this likely reflects
   2.1 East Asia and the Pacific                                              a period prior to widespread COVID-19 mea-
                                                                              sures being adopted in host countries. Remit-
   Remittance trends. Remittance flows to the                                 tances to Indonesia returned to a single-digit
   East Asia and Pacific region grew by 2.6                                   annual growth of 4 percent in 2019 after expe-
   percent in 2019, about 4.3 percentage points                               riencing double-digit growth in 2018, the latter
   lower than the growth rate in 2018. In 2020,                               due to an expansion in remittance flows from
   remittance flows are expected to decline by                                the Middle East (particularly Saudi Arabia).
   13 percent due to the impact of COVID-19.                                  By contrast, remittances from the Middle East
   The slowdown is expected to be driven by                                   shrunk in 2019 while growth remained in the
   declining inflows from the United States, the                              double digits from Asia, particularly in Hong
   largest source of remittances to the East Asia                             Kong SAR, China; and Taiwan, China.
   and Pacific region, and from Hong Kong SAR,                                Remittance costs. The average cost of send-
   China. Several remittance-dependent coun-                                  ing $200 in remittances to the East Asia and

  Figure 2.1 Top Remittance Recipients in the East Asia and Pacific Region, 2019
   ($ billion, 2019)                                                         (Percentage of GDP, 2019)

                                                                             37.6
   68.4

          35.2
                                                                                    16.2
                                                                                           14.3
                                                                                                  10.9
                                                                                                         9.9 9.7
                 17.0                                                                                              6.5 6.1 5.9
                        11.7                                                                                                      5.0
                               7.1
                                     2.8 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.3
                                                                                                      .
                                                                                                  am

                                                                                                    a
                                                                                                    a

                                                                                                     s

                                                                                                   lu
                                                                                                  oa

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               m

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                                                            ji

                                                                                                    s
             sia
                s
  Ph hina

              ar

                                                                                        ilip ti

                                                                                                                                   ji
                                                                                                 nd
   M nd

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                                                                                                 ne
                                                                                                ng
                                                          Fi
            ne

                                                                                                                                 Fi
                                                                                               va
                                                                                                 a
           na

           go
         nm

                                                                                             am
           ay
          ne

                                                                                             bo
                                                                                  es etn
                                                                                             rib
         bo

                                                                                            sla

                                                                                             pi
          la

                                                                                               .
         pi

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                                                                                           ed
        et
         C

        al

       on
        ai
      do

                                                                                           S

                                                                                          m
     ilip

      ya

                                                                                          Ki
      m

                                                                                         lI

                                                                                         Vi
     Vi

     M

                                                                                       ,F
    Th

  Ca

                                                                                       al
   In

                                                                                     Ph

                                                                                     ia
                                                                                    sh
                                                                                  ar

                                                                                on
                                                                                M

  Sources: World Bank staff estimates, World Development Indicators, and
                                                                             icr

  IMF Balance of Payments statistics. Note: GDP = gross domestic product.                                                               16
                                                                            M
Migration and Development Brief 32

Figure 2.2 Remittance Fees to the Philippines Are Among the Lowest in the East Asia
and Pacific Region

(Percent)
30
                            Fourth Quarter 2018
                            Fourth Quarter 2019                                                                                                 25.1
25
                                                                                           5 highest-cost corridors
                                                                                                                                         21.0
20
                                                                                               17.0

15                                                                                                           14.0                 14.2
                                                                                 13.4                 12.9          13.0
                                                                                        11.8
                              5 lowest-cost corridors                                                                      11.0
10

                                                                   5.1
  5           4.1                                                        3.2
                                          3.2 2.6     3.4 2.8
                             2.9
                    2.2             2.2

  0
                                                            pi s to

                                                                     m
                                                                    sia

                                                                      a
                                s

                                                                      a

                                                                      a
                                                                      s

                                                                      u
                ar

                              ne

                                                                  ne

                                                                   di

                                                                   in

                                                                   in
                                                                  at
                                                                 na
              nm

                                                                ne
                                                                  s

                                                               Ch

                                                               Ch
                                                               bo

                                                               nu
                            pi

                                                               pi
                                                      ilip te
                                                              ne

                                                              et
                                                            do
            ya

                        ilip

                                                           ilip
                                                  Ph ira

                                                            m

                                                           Va
                                                           Vi
                                                          to

                                                          to
           M

                                                       Ca
                                                         In
                                                      Em
                      Ph

                                                      Ph

                                                      to

                                                      to
                                                     nd

                                                       a
       to

                                                    to

                                                    ric
                                                   to
                      to

                                                   o

                                                 nd

                                                 lia
                                                  la
                                 ab

                                                Af
                                                tt
     sia

                                                 e

                                                ai
                                             nd

                                               ra
                                              la
                                              or
                   or

                               Ar

                                             ai

                                            Th

                                             h
   ay

                                            st
                                            ai
                                          ap
                 ap

                                           la
                                           w

                                          ut
                                d

                                         Au
                                         Th
 al

                                         ai
                                        Ku

                                        So
                             ite

                                       ng
               ng
M

                                      Th
                           Un

                                     Si
             Si

Sources: Remittance Prices Worldwide database, World Bank. Average cost of sending $200.

Pacific region dropped to 7.13 percent in 2020                             was expected to fall amid travel bans imposed
Q1, compared with 7.21 percent in 2019 Q1.                                 by the GCC.17 As of April 30, 2020, 1677
The five lowest-cost corridors in the region av-                           overseas Filipino workers had tested positive
eraged 2.6 percent while the five highest-cost                             for COVID-19, of which 451 had recovered
corridors averaged 15.4 percent as of 2019                                 and 201 had died. Only workers barred from
Q4. Money transfer costs from Thailand to                                  travelling to China were entitled to a subsidy
neighboring countries in Southeast Asia were                               of 10,000 pesos (about $198), which had not
among the highest, averaging 12.1 percent in                               been extended to those affected by travel
the last quarter of 2019.                                                  bans, particularly in Qatar and Kuwait.

Migration trends. The Philippine government’s                              Over 60,000 migrant workers from Myanmar,
efforts to halt the spread of the coronavirus                              Cambodia, and the Lao People’s Democratic
by banning travel to several countries—in-                                 Republic fled Thailand, defying requests by
cluding Taiwan, China; Macau; Hong Kong                                    officials to remain in the country to help con-
SAR, China; and South Korea—was short                                      tain the virus and raising fears of cross-border
lived amid resistance from overseas Filipino                               infections. Elsewhere, Singapore, which ap-
workers concerned about potential job losses                               peared to have early success in containing the
if they were unable to travel back to their host                           coronavirus among its residents, was seeing
countries after home visits. The government                                a new surge in cases from a previously over-
announced that new deployment to these                                     looked source. Over three-quarters of these
countries and mainland China would be scaled                               new cases were related to low-skilled migrant
down while deployment to the GCC countries                                 workers housed in dormitories. There were

17
COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

  more than 200,000 migrant workers from                                       the arrest and deportation of undocumented
  Asia residing in a total of 43 dormitories in                                migrants in order to facilitate their testing and
  the country.                                                                 treatment for the coronavirus.

  A lockdown in Malaysia was causing hardship                                  Throughout the East Asia and Pacific region,
  for foreign workers, particular daily casual                                 migrant workers were left out of financial
  workers. The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign                                  support from host governments to counter the
  Affairs (MOFA) indicated that it had sent more                               economic fallout from containing the coronavi-
  than 3,000 aid packages to its citizens in Ma-                               rus pandemic, and were at times being told to
  laysia and was preparing an additional 3,000                                 simply return home–though many were unable
  more.18 Malaysia is the main destination for                                 to travel due to travel bans or flight cancella-
  Indonesian workers, hosting half of Indonesia’s                              tions. A recent survey of migrant workers in
  estimated 3.7 million workers abroad in 2019.19                              New South Wales, Australia, found that half
                                                                               had lost their jobs and one-fifth had seen
  Undocumented migrant workers in host                                         their work hours reduced while none would
  Southeast Asian countries risked detention                                   be eligible for government assistance. A plan
  and deportation by visiting health centers to                                to pay employers A$1,500 (around US$950)
  be checked or treated for the coronavirus. The                               every two weeks per employee did not extend
  Ministry of Labor in Taiwan, China, planned to                               to those employing temporary migrant workers
  inspect the documentation of migrant caregiv-                                (except New Zealanders). While the Singa-
  ers. A civic group called for granting amnesty                               porean government waived the monthly levy
  to the estimated 50,000 undocumented work-                                   of S$750 (about US$530) for foreign workers
  ers in the economy, citing these workers’ fear of                            required of employers and committed to pro-
  coming forward to report COVID-19 symp-                                      viding the latter a rebate, contract workers did
  toms. In Malaysia, civic groups similarly called                             not expect to receive any financial support.
  on the government to impose a moratorium on

  Figure 2.3 Remittance Inflows to Europe and Central Asia Remained Strong in 2019
  ($ billion, 2019e)                                                           (Percentage of GDP, 2019e)

  15.8
                                                                               29.2 28.2
                                                                                            25.4
         10.6

                7.2                                                                                16.2 15.6
                                                                                                               14.2
                       4.2    4.2                                                                                     11.4 10.5 10.2
                                     2.4   2.3    2.3   2.3    2.1                                                                   9.5
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  Sources: World Bank staff estimates, World Development Indicators, and IMF Balance of Payments statistics.
  Note: GDP = gross domestic product; 2019e = estimated for 2019.

                                                                                                                                           18
Migration and Development Brief 32

2.2 Europe and Central Asia                          Russia, the average cost was higher, declining
                                                     from 7.44 percent to 6.94 percent in the same
Remittance trends. Remittances to Europe             period. The cost of sending $200 from Russia
and Central Asia remained strong in 2019,            remained the lowest globally, though it rose
growing by about 6 percent to $65 billion in         from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent, mainly due to
2019. Ukraine remained the largest recipient         a cost increase for the Russia-Ukraine corridor.
of remittances in the region, receiving a record     The differences in costs across corridors in the
high of nearly $16 billion in 2019 (figure 2.3),     region are substantial; the highest average cost
with the lion’s share of remittances coming          for sending $200 in remittances was from Tur-
from Poland (about two-thirds of the total),         key to Bulgaria, while the lowest average cost
followed by the Czech Republic, Russia, the          was from Russia to Azerbaijan (figure 2.4).
United States, and the United Kingdom. Small-
er remittance-dependent economies in the             Migration trends. According to data from the
region, such as the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan,     United Nations High Commissioner for Ref-
and Uzbekistan, particularly benefited from a        ugees (UNHCR), 124,000 irregular migrants
rebound of economic activity in Russia.              arrived in the European Union (EU) in 2019,
                                                     down sharply from a peak of more than 1 mil-
In 2020, the growth of remittance flows to           lion in 2015. The Central Mediterranean route,
the region is estimated to fall significantly, by    used by about half of all irregular migrants to
about 28 percent, due to the combined effect         the European Union in 2016, accounted for
of the global coronavirus pandemic and tum-          only 9 percent of irregular travel, while the
bling oil prices. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and        pace of arrivals through the Eastern Mediter-
Russia, the region’s largest oil producers, are      ranean route surged in mid-2019, with Greece
expected to suffer budget shortfalls, mount-         accounting for 59 percent of arrivals. While
ing pressure on their currencies, and possible       overall migration numbers fell in 2019, Greece,
recessions. Notably, the high dependence on          Spain, and Italy still received the most irregular
remittances from Russia is likely to increase        migrants among the EU countries. Greece dis-
the impact of negative external shocks on the        placed Italy as the most popular arrival point
Central Asian economies of the Kyrgyz Repub-         for irregular migrants, with 74,600 arrivals in
lic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Remittances         2019. Only 11,000 irregular migrants landed
sent home by millions of expatriate workers in       in Italy in 2019, down sharply from a peak of
Russia, most of them employed in the construc-       181,000 arrivals in 2016.20
tion sector, account for about two-thirds of
GDP in both the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajiki-          Afghans accounted for 19 percent of irreg-
stan. (Outward remittance flows from Russia,         ular migrants to the European Union and
as expressed in U.S. dollars, would be lower         40 percent of those travelling by the Eastern
due to the valuation effect of a weaker ruble        Mediterranean route in 2019, representing the
against the U.S. dollar.) Indeed, the Kyrgyz Re-     single-largest nationality. This was well above
public saw remittances fall 9 percent in the first   the number of Syrians, who accounted for 13
two months of 2020 compared with the same            percent of total arrivals. Nigerian migrants,
period the previous year.                            who were the single-largest nationality along
                                                     the Central Mediterranean route in 2016–17,
Remittance costs. The average cost of sending        had all but disappeared as a major group.
$200 to the Europe and Central Asia region           Meanwhile, Tunisians became the largest
declined modestly to 6.48 percent in 2020            group arriving in Italy in 2019, with 2,700
Q1 from 6.67 percent a year earlier. Without         arrivals.

19
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