COVID-19: exit timeline - Discussion Materials| 1 June 2020 - Deloitte
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COVID-19: exit timeline Discussion Materials| 1 June 2020
COVID-19: exit timeline
Introduction
• With Major European countries appearing to be past the peak of reported deaths, different
geographies are testing various ‘exit strategies’ to mitigate the health and economic impact of
COVID-19.
• This document provides an overview for each of the major European countries of their
current status, key statistics and a reported or illustrative timeline (as relevant) for their exit
strategy.
• In addition, we’ve included slides on the actions companies are taking in the workplace to
‘return to work’, plus advice for management teams.
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 2…And death rates will need to significantly drop for countries to begin to mitigate economic impact
Approximately 5-6 weeks has passed since the peak for France, Spain, Italy and the UK, the worst affected countries
5-day rolling average of COVID-19 new deaths Cases per million Deaths per million
Data as at 29/05/2020
1400 Denmark 1,982 98
1200 France 2,232 438
1000
Germany 2,145 100
800
Italy 3,823 547
600
Netherlands 2,671 343
400
Spain
200 5,064 580
United
0 3,937 552
05-Mar 19-Mar 02-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 14-May 28-May Kingdom
• The number of infected cases is correlated to the level of testing. A more reliable indicator to track the course of the pandemic is deaths (shown above) and ICU admissions.
• Reported deaths can also be subject to distortion. For example if the reason of death is recorded as a co-morbidity rather than COVID-19. In the UK, excess deaths recorded by
statistical agencies like the ONS includes people who died with the disease but without being tested, in community and care homes. This number is much higher than that
announced by the Department of Health and Social Care.
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 3
Source: Our World in Data Note: Due to a change in methodology of counting deaths, Spain’s total deaths have been revised downwards by ~2,000 on 25 May
and the new deaths on 25 May cannot be ascertained. This # will be updated next weekGeographies are testing various ‘exit strategies’ to mitigate this economic impact
Strategies are now being developed to exit lockdown and “reboot” economies through a phased reopening of sectors
over several months
• There is a pattern beginning to emerge from
European countries actions and statements,
that forms a generic timeline. Governments
will learn from other’s experience and shape
their strategy to events.
• To contemplate relaxing NPIs the epidemic will
need to have passed its peak and health
services be under control with spare ICU
capacity.
• Key will be to remove the most economically
damaging NPIs, and leave in place or introduce
new measures which achieve
similar/significant health results.
• Early actions will probably focus on high
productivity and employment sectors and
Generic timeline those with lower workplace contact and
Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12
transmission risk.
• Ideally relaxation of lockdown would be
coupled with a combination of greater testing,
Indicative 3 week 2 week Manufacturing Non essential Nursery & Production Services and antibody testing and technology for track and
Measures review Extension Construction retail Schools back and services offices
and supply (or earlier) (could be (phased) trace. The role of technology will introduce
Need to see testing ramped up and pressure reduce on health services (PPE available and
earlier) significant debates about privacy.
deaths down)
Government needs to start planning the return to work and giving companies clear signals as it will take time to work through details of the workforce return
(especially if pre-school return). Government also needs to start focusing on the next supply requirements e.g. temperature testing
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 4Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI)
Countries have made different choices about the imposition of NPI but it is possible to illustrate a progression of
imposition and relaxation
Non Pharmaceutical Interventions
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Enhanced Social Lockdown,
Working
hygiene Social Travel distancing Most Construction permitted
from home School and Non-
measures & distancing of restrictions outside work production and movement
where day care essential
case vulnerable & university (bars, and services automotive only (key
possible closures retail closure
isolation in people closures restaurants closure closure roles, critical
mandated
the home closed) retail)
NPI modifiers, Governments will typically look to accompany • There is insufficient data to accurately estimate the impact of different
NPI in terms of reducing R0
unlocking of specific measures with introducing the following to
contain R0 • Given that >90% of deaths have occurred in over 60 year olds some policies
such as social distancing of vulnerable people may have disproportionate
• Antigen tests – tests whether you have the virus, enabling people to stay in impact on reducing deaths vs infections
work or isolate to reduce infection
• The scale above gives an illustration for grading the response of Governments
• Track & trace – to enable testing and isolation of known contacts during with the unwind of lockdown policies broadly moving from 10 to 0
immune period
• The re-opening of schools and universities is complex as it has significant social
• Antibody tests – tests whether you have had the virus and may be immune, rather than economic consequences. School openings may well therefore be
although immunity is not yet proven accelerated
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 5These exit strategies are linked closely to the sensitivity of ICU capacity to the infection rate R(T)
The relaxation of NPI will increase R(T), even a small increase above 1.0 results in a significant surge in demand for ICU
capacity
Sensitivity of ventilator demand to changes
Sensitivity of ventilator demand to changes in R(T)
in the assumed asymptomatic ratio
• When NPI restrictions are relaxed R(T) is
likely to increase from the current estimate
of 0.6-1.0 back towards an unconstrained 4.4.
• The LHS chart shows expected ICU respiratory
admissions in England under certain R(T)
assumptions.
• The chart illustrates that even an increase to 1.5
results in demand nearly twice current enhanced
“surge” capacity. The peak illustrates that “herd
immunity” would constrain the spread in late 2020.
• The first issue is that there are not robust
assumptions linking different NPI to their R(T)
Epidemiology model parameters and assumptions impact.
Parameter Assumption Parameter Assumption • The second issue is that there are key unknowns
including the asymptomatic proportion, those who
Incubation period 5.1 days Hospitalised proportion 4.4% have the virus but show no signs.
Infection period 9.0 days Hospitalised to critical proportion 30.0% • Uncertainty on the value of key parameters leads
Date of first infection 10/01/2020 Critical to fatality ratio 50.0% to a large confidence interval on the model
predictions.
R0 (basic infection rate prior to Length of stay (acute bed) not
4.4 people 8.0 days • The RHS illustrates the impact of a 50% rather
government intervention) critical
than 33% asymptomatic proportion. There is still a
R(T) (effective infection rate post Length of stay (acute bed)
Various 6.0 days significant surge in respiratory ICU admissions but
government intervention) becomes critical
it remains within surge capacity.
Asymptomatic proportion 33.0% Length of stay in ICU bed 9.6 days
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 6
Source: Deloitte researchFrance Focus
The decreasing risk due to Covid-19 will fit with further loosing restriction from June 2nd
Topic Current Status Key Stat May 29
Daily death toll remained to under 100 this week. Authorities face clusters with less than 100 persons each Current lockdown
Virus Progression 5
time. score
Increased testing in elderly nursing homes and among hospital staff. Increasing testing overall with systematic
Health Status testing when suspicions (PCR and antibodies are tested). Current ICU saturation remain high (30 to 40% of total Max lockdown
capacity with Covid-19 patients) 10
score
Specific “health brigades” were created to accelerate identification of contacts, testing and quarantine
Testing Status placement. HAS announced that rapid antibody testing was approved to accelerate diagnosis (serology in less Date of Max
than 15 minutes). March 16
imposition
Travelling restriction to 100km radius around home will end June 2nd. Remote working will remain encouraged
(90% until June and 80% in the summer). Parks will reopen May 30th. Universities will not reopen until Deaths in past 5
Restrictions 307
September. Major sports activities in France suspended until June 2nd in green zone and June 22nd in orange days
zones. Restrictions could be reinforced when needed (set of health indicators to inform policies).
Most department are now in the “green zone”, meaning that virus in low enough to ease restrictions while 2 Current doubling
Regional variations 42
departments remains in the “orange zone” with a more progressive end of restriction until June 22nd. days of deaths
Travelling around in France will be possible from June 2nd. Restaurant and bars will reopen when they can
Relaxation status ensure social distancing, mostly relaying on terraces in Paris. Outdoor events could be organized with up to Weekly Antigen Not communicated
5,000 people with specific authorization. Tests over last few days
Illustrative Timeline
May June July August
May 11: Phased return to school and May 30:
May 18: Middle June 2: Cafes, bars, restaurants June 22nd: End of restriction in
conditional deconfinement by Religious People will be able to move around in France
schools in Green open with restrictions. Ban on remaining territories classified as
department based on risk level; services may for summer holidays
Zones reopen journeys of >100km ends. “orange”
reopening of non-essential retail resume
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 7
Source: French Health Ministry; Our Wold in DataGermany Focus
Germany has been able to control the virus better than most other European countries
Topic Current Status Key Stat May 29
Deaths per million are considerably lower than seen in other countries and are on a downward track since late Current lockdown
Virus Progression 3-4
March, although there has been a recent increase. score
Has benefitted from the substantial ICU capacity (c. 4 times some other European geographies), health system Max lockdown
Health Status 4-5
has not been in crisis. score
Has a very strong diagnostics industry and ramped up antigen testing quickly. Testing of young people picked up Date of Max
Testing Status March 16
an increasing amount of less serious cases, lowering the death rate. Have started trialling antibody tests. imposition
Industrial prod. resumed with social distancing measures; widespread remote working; mass gatherings
Restrictions prohibited until Aug 31; borders remain closed (biz travel with permission possible). 14 day quarantine for Deaths in past 5
195
those returning from countries with cumulated infection rate >50/100k. Social distancing extended to Jun 29 days
There have been some regional variations in restrictions reflecting local government decisions in light of virus
Regional variations variations. Disagreement between central and regional governments on May 25 with some regions like Current doubling
36
Thuringia hoping to ease contact distancing more drastically (scrap rules on mask wearing and distancing). days of deaths
All shops including hairdressers, public services opened on May 4; restaurants opened May 15 along with hotels
in some states; cross-country transport resumed; some states allowed reopening of gyms; phased school Weekly Antigen
Relaxation status ~382,000
returns now in place. Government reviewing easing on a two weekly basis with the condition of reinstating Tests (18-24 May)
lockdown if new infections exceed 50 out of 100,000.
Illustrative Timeline
May June July
May 4: Phased return to school
(reduced schedules) with all May 15: Reopening of restaurants Gradual reduction in WFH, travel June 15: Borders to reopen initially New normal with distancing,
students back by July, retail and along with hotels in some states allowed to Switzerland, France and Austria. protection and enhanced measures
public services opened
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 8
Source: Our World in DataItaly Focus
The virus shows signs of slowdown, leading policy makers to implement a calendar for reopening activities
Topic Current Status Key Stat May 29
The data shows a significant reduction in the number of deaths over the last few weeks as a result of the Current lockdown
Virus Progression 5
containment measures implemented. score
There are still numerous concerns regarding both public and private nursing homes; in order to maintain Max lockdown
Health Status 10
control of the situation, testing has been increased for these facilities. score
Testing has been ramped up significantly and is now running at c.436k per week; the ratio between new cases Date of Max
Testing Status March 10
and tests has decreased from 20% on March 30 to a current level of 1%. imposition
Schools remain shut but will reopen in September; Retail, Restaurants, hair salons reopened (with restrictions)
Deaths in past 5
Restrictions on May 18th as well as religious gatherings; borders reopening on June 3, and with differences among regions. 456
days
Swimming pools, gyms, sports facilities reopening (with differences by region) from 25th May.
Differences exist among regions with respect to the infection spread. The Italian government defined general
Current doubling
Regional variations operating / behavioural rules, nonetheless giving regions the possibility to adopt more restrictive measures. 48
days of deaths
Moreover, regions are given some degree of decisional autonomy e.g. on local public transportation.
Construction, manufacturing and wholesale activities related to these industries opened on May 4; retail
Weekly Antigen
Relaxation status opened on May 18 maintaining stringent social distancing; loosened restrictions on physical activity; the Gov. is ~440,000
Tests
preparing a plan for the holiday season. May 25: Swimming pools, gyms and other sport facilities reopening
Illustrative Timeline
May June July September
May 4: Construction, May 18: Retail, restaurants, hair May 25: Swimming pools, gyms and June 3: Borders will
manufacturing and salons, religious gatherings reopen, other sport facilities reopening in be reopening, with Possible new policies to regulate behaviour and
Reopening of schools for all grades
related wholesale maintaining social distancing and some regions, depending on potential differences social distancing for the holiday season
allowed to operate protection/ sanitization measures contagion severity among regions
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 9
Source: Our World in DataNetherlands Focus
The Netherlands has already announced schools’ reopening calendar and more relaxation measures
are expected in May
Topic Current Status Key Stat May 29
The number of new cases has been decreasing steadily since mid-April, while the number of deaths has been Current lockdown
Virus Progression 6-7
declining since beginning of April. score
After some concerns regarding ICU capacity in March, the Dutch government has doubled ICU capacity to 2,400 Max lockdown
Health Status 7
beds, of which 1,900 are reserved for COVID-19 patients and there is spare capacity in this allocation. score
Testing focusing only on the vulnerable groups (people aged 70 years and up or with underlying health
Testing Status Date of Max
conditions), healthcare workers and people in critical conditions. March 16
imposition
Shops, factories, logistics, construction can remain open if safety of personnel and clients can be managed;
Restrictions service-based businesses remote working mandatory; restaurants, bars and theatres still shut until June 1; Deaths in past 5
83
public transport will revert back to pre-virus schedule from June 1 but masks will be mandatory. days
The province of Noord-Brabant has been particularly affected, totalling one-fifth of total cases, and was subject Current doubling
Regional variations 38
to some additional restrictions than the remaining of the country. days of deaths
Some school age groups are back at school. Most retail businesses have already resumed their activity including Weekly Antigen
Relaxation status ~29,000
contact occupations; outdoor sports with no physical contact allowed to resume. Tests (May 9 - 17)
Illustrative Timeline
May June July
May 11: Schools reopened with 50% of students under 12 years old July 1: Campsites and holiday parks
June 1: Normal school schedule for students under 12 years old; students 12-18 July 15: Practical exams and
attending each day; contact occupations reopened; outdoor sports with no will open completely; restaurants,
years old start school; public transport will resume normal services; F&B, lessons to resume at trade
physical contact resumed cafes, theatres and cinemas can scale
museums, theatres and cinemas can reopen (max. 30 people) schools
up to 100 people
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 10
Source: Our World in DataSpain Focus
Spain will be in “State of Alarm” during May after recent negotiations with parties in the opposition.
However, relaxations to mobility have been implemented and consolidated (with differences among regions)
Topic Current Status Key Stat May 29
Average deaths continue to fall and are now substantially below Italy and UK which are the other countries to Current lockdown
Virus Progression 6
have had such serious outbreaks. score
ICU capacity has begun showing positive signs, hospitals showing capacity for treating COVID-19 patients and Max lockdown
Health Status 10
other patients. Ad-hoc hospitals have closed, due to lack of activity (Madrid-IFEMA). score
Testing Status Results of the first official round of tests has been published on May 13th. Increased tests will occur during May. Date of Max
March 14
imposition
Methodology changed
Restrictions Mobility restrictions between cities / regions will likely extend until end of June. Deaths in past 5 on May 25th and the
days number of deaths has
Regional status is changing weekly with most of the regions in phase 2 next week, but major economic hubs decreased
Regional variations (Madrid and Barcelona) are still at Phase 1 with important economic activity limitations. Some islands will move
to phase 3 on June 1 Current doubling
45
PM has announced 4 phases de-escalation program (from 0-3). In phase 2, cultural activities and the partial days of deaths
opening of activities with capacity limitations is considered, such as restaurants with table service and terraces,
Relaxation status
large shopping centers, etc. Individual mobility (sport, walks, etc.) is still permitted (6-10am and 8-11pm). In Weekly Antigen
~217,000
phase 3, all activities are planned to be opened but maintaining security and distancing measures. Tests (15-21 May)
Illustrative Timeline
May June July
May 25: Reopening cultural activities Possible larger
May 11: Small shops, bar terraces June 22: mobility restrictions July 1: Borders opened
(30% occupancy) and bars (interiors) June 8: Commercial activity at 50% outdoor gatherings
have reopened at 30% occupancy relaxed (mobility allowed within Quarantine to foreign
(only in regions at Phase 1). Beaches capacity. (where distancing
(only in regions at Phase 1) regions in Spain) lifted tourists
reopening in some regions possible)
Source: Our World in Data COVID-19 Exit Timeline 11UK Focus
The UK is behind most other countries as it is later in the cycle but has recently, and in a very limited way,
eased restrictions by actively encouraging those who cannot WFH to go to work
Topic Current Status Key Stat May 29
Deaths in hospital showing signs of falling but reports of significant deaths in care homes. With testing being
Current lockdown
Virus Progression ramped up the number of reported cases shows signs of rising. Real worries about relaxation when number of 7-8
score
cases remains high. Official estimates of R0 are between 0.7-1.
Additional “Nightingale” hospitals have been opened so ICU capacity available (c. 15,000 beds) and now some Max lockdown
Health Status 8
being mothballed due to low usage. Significant PPE challenges in hospitals causing concern. score
Achieved antigen testing target of 100,000 tests a day on April 30 and May 1. No antibody testing programme
Date of Max
Testing Status in place, although PHE gave Roche green light for their newly developed antibody test. Track and trace kicked March 16
imposition
off in England and Scotland on May 28 to prevent a second wave.
Essential retail and some manufacturing / construction remains open with social distancing. Airports remain
Deaths in past 5
Restrictions open with no health restrictions but very limited flights. Two weeks quarantine imposed on arrivals. Fines 1,067
days
increased to £100 and can double if with each repeated offence until £3,200.
England, Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland have local control so some variations in restrictions. For example Current doubling
Regional variations 34
Scotland closed all construction but England did not. Now evidence of division on stay at home message. days of deaths
Guidelines on May 11 announced 3 phases of relaxation – in Phase 1, sunbathing, unlimited exercise, outdoor
Weekly Antigen
Relaxation status sports and driving to a national park or beach permitted. Groups of up to 6 people keeping 2m apart from ~479,000
Tests (16-22 May)
another household can meet in parks/gardens from June 1. Phase 2 targeted for June 1, and Phase 3 for July 4.
Illustrative Timeline
May June July
May 11: Phase 1 of relaxation now permits sunbathing, unlimited exercise, June 1: Phase 2 of relaxation to be announced;
July 4: Phase 3 of relaxation to be
outdoor sports, driving to a national park or beach; construction and partial schools re-open (primary early years June 15: All non-essential
announced; some hospitality No clarity on WFH restrictions
production being encouraged back to work with limited easing of and 2021 key exam years), retail starts to shops can reopen
resumes with controls in place
movement restrictions (avoid public transport) open. Groups of up to 6 allowed to meet
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 12
Source: Our World in DataWe are seeing different levels of mobility (% from baseline) across location types in Europe
Restrictions on movement are easing selectively across Denmark, Germany and Netherlands, with mobility across
grocery/pharmacy and parks returning to baseline levels (even exceeding baseline for parks), followed by workplaces
Mobility change from baseline across location type (%)
On 21 May 2020
Retail & Recreation Grocery & Pharmacy Parks Transit Workplace Residential
16
Denmark -38 -21 337 -42 -77
France -56 -36 66 -61 -78 22
Germany -55 -87 225 -46 -81 18
Italy -37 -15 0 -46 -37 15
Netherlands -35 -13 246 -53 -78 19
Spain -58 -18 -7 -53 -48 19
UK -64 -16 51 -58 -59 23
Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Data; The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5- week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020
Note: Public holiday in Germany, Netherlands, France, Denmark on 21 May
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 13In particular Italy, Spain, and France have sustained longer and more severe downturns in workplace
mobility over the course of the pandemic
5-day rolling average of mobility change from baseline for workplaces (%) Est. duration of • Spain, France and Italy
Data as at 28/05/2020 lockdown /days
imposed much more
% severe restrictions on
05-Mar 19-Mar 2-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 14-May 21-May 33 mobility much earlier on
10 Denmark although Italy’s mobility
0 is returning to baseline
France 55 with easing of restrictions
-10 • The UK was much later in
significantly restricting
-20 Germany 25 workplace mobility but
the measures have been
-30
35 as severe as in Italy, Spain
Italy
-40 and France
• The impact of lockdown
-50 Netherlands 44 measures on workplace
mobility seems to be
-60 lower in Germany,
Spain 30 Denmark and
-70
Netherlands at the outset
-80 United 47
Kingdom
-90
Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Data; The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5- week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020
Note: Public holiday in Germany, Netherlands, France, Denmark on 21 May
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 14Trump has announced “Opening up America”
Guidelines published
• Will be regional - state based decisions
• Based on stage gating based on health
• Outlines responsibilities for States preparedness of; screening & testing, contact
tracing, PPE and ICU surge availability
• Employer responsibilities re distancing, PPE, temp checks, testing, isolation,
contact trace, sanitation, cleaning and business travel
Individuals Individuals
Vulnerable resume public interactions but practice
All vulnerable shelter in place. Max social distancing
distancing when in public, groups >50
Individuals avoided and resume non essential travel Employers
All vulnerable shelter in place. Max distancing Unrestricted staffing of work sites
when in public, groups >10 avoided and
Employers 4
minimise non essential travel Encourage teleworking, close common areas
and resume non-essential travel
Employers 3
Encourage teleworking, return in phases & Specifics
Gates based on close common areas. Minimise non-essential Schools and bars can re-open
Downward trajectory of C-19 and ILI cases travel Large venues moderate social distancing
Downward trajectory of +ve tests as proportion
of total tests Specifics 2
Robust testing for at risk workers and ability to • Hinges off similar health triggers to Europe
Schools and bars closed
treat all without crisis care Implies a more rapid re-opening at Gate 1 than we
Large venues and gyms can open with physical •
Pass through next gate if adhere to these and are seeing in Europe
distancing
no evidence of secondary surge (timing TBD) • Puts significant obligations on employers and states
1
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 15Government schemes
Governments are starting to distribute material sums of money across Europe
Fiscal support Cost deferrals (as part
Fiscal support Loan Schemes Uptake of loan schemes
(% GDP) of fiscal support)
DKK 60bn and 30.7bn extension on health SME and large company loan
spend and support for workers and 3.9% Tax deferrals schemes and guarantees DKK
businesses 70bn (3% GDP)
€110 on health spend, liquidity support,
Tax, utility and rent Guarantees for loans €315bn BPI has backed €78bn in loans to 470,000
worker and business support, equity 5%
deferrals (14% GDP) SMEs
investments
€159bn on health spend, business support
Guarantees for loans €757bn
incl. €50bn grants to small businesses and 4.9% + state- Companies have applied for €46bn in state-
Tax deferrals (25% GDP) at federal level and
self-employed and expansion of Kurzarbeit level spending guaranteed loans; KfW distributed €26bn
€73 at state level
scheme
Credit supply support €5.1bn
‘Cura Italia’ €25bn on health spend, job (0.3% GDP); Liquidity decree Large firms have asked for €18.5bn in state-
preservation, business and credit supply 4.6% Tax and utility deferrals allowing up to €400bn in guaranteed loans, €3.1bn in loans approved so
support; ‘Relaunch’ €55bn additional state guarantees (25% far
GDP)
SME loans and public guarantee
€20.1bn on business support incl. for
schemes based on demand,
entrepreneurs and self-employed, expansion 2.7% Tax deferrals €2bn issued for 121,000 firms
€13bn (1.7% GDP) available to
of short-time working scheme
support SMEs restarting activities
Banks received thousands of mortgage holiday
€35bn unemployment benefits, employment Tax deferrals for SMEs and Loan guarantees for companies requests per week. Tough qualifying conditions
3%
support, increased sick pay, health R&D self-employed and self employed up to €100bn e.g. mortgage payment >30% of household
income reduces eligibility
Loan guarantee schemes for SMEs
£27bn business support, £40bn
and large businesses plus a £46.44bn in loans agreed including £18.49bn
employees support, £14.7bn NHS spend, 5.2% Tax payment deferrals
commercial paper scheme for in “bounce-back” loans to 608,000 SMEs
£7bn welfare spend
investment grade companies
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 16
Source: Policy responses to COVID-19, IMF; France’s state-backed BPI raises ‘lake of cash’ for stakes in domestic companies, FT; Italian companies ask for $20 billion in state-
guaranteed loans: credit agency, Reuters; BNR News; Spain's banks overwhelmed with requests for mortgage relief, Reuters; UK FinanceReturn to work – operational practice
Actions companies are taking in
the workplace
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 17Return to work – operational practice
Actions companies are taking in the workplace
• The following pages are a collation of actions we have observed being taken, or guidance we
have identified.
• The focus is on actions companies may wish to consider taking in the coming weeks and months
as they emerge from lockdown. It is focussed on tactical actions, and not on long term actions.
• Please note, the information and photographs included in this document may not be compliant
with any legislation or guidance which may exist in any jurisdiction.
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 18Actions companies are taking in the workplace
Office
Signs Health & Hygiene
• Extensive use of signs & posters on social distancing, good hygiene practices etc. Employee health / testing
• Self-declare health status every week - questionnaire
• Temperature check all staff on arrival
• Coronavirus testing every two weeks
Social distancing PPE
Working from home • Compulsory face masks
• Encourage WFH where possible • Gloves / masks for workers in regular contact with others e.g.. Reception
• Go to office only on designated days • Physical partitions in high traffic areas e.g.. reception
• Flex working hours • PPE freely available
Meetings Cleaning / sanitising
• Discourage in person meetings – use technology • Hand sanitiser at entry
Separation • Sanitise meeting rooms after use
• Rooms/Lifts/Canteens/Changing rooms have defined capacity limits • Disinfect handles, doors, surfaces, bathrooms, lift buttons, fridges, printers etc. more
• Every other desk – desks marked not available frequently & intensively
• Nobody facing each other • Employees to clean own work area before starting work
• Remove excess chairs • Encourage employees to sanitise/wipe personal items: phones, glasses, iPads etc.
• Physical distance markings on the floor • Ubiquitous cleaning materials
• Defined desks – no hot desking during the day Other
Training • No food in working areas
• On-line at home • No communal food
• Clear desk policy
• Improved ventilation where possible
• No sharing of equipment, phones etc.
• Discourage use of public transport
Third parties
• Offered hand sanitiser on arrival
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 19Actions companies are taking in the workplace
Retail
Signs Health & Hygiene
• Extensive use of signs/posters on social distancing and good hygiene practices etc. Employee health / testing
• Self-declare health status every week - questionnaire
• Temperature check all staff on arrival
PPE
Social distancing • Mandatory face masks
Customers • Mandatory plastic gloves
• Control number of people in a shop • Gloves for any customer contact
• Queue management • Customers offered masks & gloves
• One-way through shops • Self-service food - provide one-time use gloves
• No walk-ins - Appointments only (bicycle maintenance) • Gloves when in contact with goods or customers
• Spacing signs on the floor Cleaning / sanitising
• Closed childcare (IKEA) • Hand sanitiser at entry / exit
• Opening hours for vulnerable customers only • Staff sanitising customer hands at entry
Staff • Disinfect handles, rails surfaces every 2 hours
• Controlled shifts – people stay in one team • Sanitise hands prior to trying on jewellery / watches
• Shift changeover designed so teams cannot meet • Products cleaned after handling / touching
Third parties Payment
• Not allowed on the premises • Pay by card, not cash
• Controlled deliveries to defined areas • Credit card terminals wiped before/after
Clothing
• Extended return period to discourage trying on in store
• Clothes tried on not put back on shelves for 24 hours
• Sanitise changing rooms after use
• Close fitting rooms
Other
• No customer contact
• Screens for workers in contact with customers
• Reusable bags not allowed
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 20Actions companies are taking in the workplace
Manufacturing
Signs Health & Hygiene
• Extensive use of signs/posters on social distancing and good hygiene practices etc. Employee health / testing
• Self-declare health status every week - questionnaire
• Temperature check all staff on arrival
• Thermal imaging of staff on arrival
Social distancing Cleaning / sanitising
Individual segregation • Hand sanitiser at entry / exit
• Change into work clothes at home. Not changing rooms Shift change spread over 3 hours • Increased intensity/frequency of cleaning
• One-way routes through factories / warehouses • Cleaning supplies available to all staff
• Redesign processes or use screens Training
• Wearables that beep when within 2m of a colleague • On-line at home
- Generates reports on distancing Other
• Dividers at cafeteria tables • Making own masks
Team segregation – completely separate teams • Workers scan QR codes for where sit in cafeteria
• Controlled shifts – people stay in one team
• Teams in groups of 20 to work / eat / travel together etc.
• Assigned zones to work in to avoid spreading disease
• Shift changeover designed so teams cannot meet
Third parties
• Not allowed on the premises
• Establish temporary bungalows for delivery drivers to REST, shower etc. so they do not
enter the facility
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 21Images of how visual markings are being used to drive behavior, and other tools
Using lifts Employee protection
Regular cleaning Regular handwashing
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 22
Image source: Getty ImagesImages of how visual markings are being used to drive behavior, and other tools
Floor markings Monitoring social distancing Innovation / robots
Desk occupancy / density and distancing
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 23
Image source: Getty ImagesManagement – some high-level considerations
Management Employee health
What you should plan for / expect
• KEEP THINGS SIMPLE • Clear all employees for return to work
• Be Authoritarian where required • Check for underlying health conditions. Seek medical guidance
• Give autonomy to local HR teams • Make allowances for older employees Lower productivity
• Health & Safety is top priority – make employees comfortable New practices will be less efficient
• Address employee concerns, be transparent & flexible Employee anxiety – provide support
• Changes likely to be iterative • Employees need to feel safe
• Particularly those who: Higher absenteeism/sickness
Frequent two-way communication - Meet the public in the course of their work
• Regularly solicit employee feedback, and make it easy (Chinese - Have underlying health conditions, particularly respiratory
firms use WeChat): - Elderly employees Higher call levels
• Concerns, risks, safety etc. from concerned employees
• Ideas for improvement Technology
• Ensure one-on-one communication is available so employees can
be open about their concerns
• Consider technology investments which: Higher call levels
• Robustly support home working from customers
• Facilitate social distancing e.g. robot cleaning, on-line training
Using data – data privacy concerns / legal requirements
• Many companies in Asia are collating and tracking personal data External resources for more information:
• Alerts & reports of social distancing in factories where staff wear
tracking devices to monitor compliance https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus
• Be open and transparent if using personal data WHO Guidance for schools, workplaces & institutions
EU-OSHA Back to the workplace
CDC Interim Guidance for Businesses and Employers
CDC Guidance for Cleaning and Disinfecting
OSHA Guidelines on Preparing Workplaces for COVID-19
US White House Opening Up America Again
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 24Contacts
Sam Blackie Jodi Birkett Jarek Golebiowski Henry Nicholson
Economic Consulting Lead Financial Advisory Clients & Industries Lead Navigating Volatility & Distress Lead Chief Strategy Officer
Email: sblackie@deloitte.co.uk Email: jbirkettt@deloitte.co.uk Email: jgolebiowski@deloitte.co.uk Email: hnicholson@deloitte.co.uk
COVID-19 Exit Timeline 25This publication has been written in general terms and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from action on any of the contents of this
publication.
This document also includes certain statements, estimates and projections with respect to anticipated future performance. Such statements, estimates and projections reflect various
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results produced by our scenario analysis under different assumptions are dependent upon the information which is available in the public domain. Our scenarios are intended only to
provide an illustrative analysis. Actual results are likely to be different from those projected due to unforeseen events and accordingly we can give no assurance as to whether or how
closely the actual outcomes will correspond to the outcomes projected in the scenarios.
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