Covid-19 Vaccines and Vacations: Coming Soon? - MAKE SMARTER MOVES - OAG
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Covid-19
Vaccines and Vacations: Coming Soon?
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
Deirdre Fulton
Partner, MIDAS Aviation
Kentaro Yamaguchi
John Grant
Head of Route
Chief Analyst, Development &
OAG Marketing, Chubu
Centrair International
Airport, Nagoya
KeeKeat Ong
Director, Network
Planning Cebu Pacific
Hannah Pearson
Founding Partner,
Pear Anderson
OUR PANEL MAKE SMARTER MOVES
End of Year Review: The Lows and Highs of 2020
We aim to consider
Update on the latest position regarding frequency and capacity
What will Q1 2021 bring?
Vaccines and Vacations: Coming soon?
Followed by your
Questions and Answers
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM HISTORY?
Globally, seat capacity for 2020 Global Seat Capacity
7,000
is expected to fall to 3.2bn, a
6,000
point last seen 15 years ago in
5,000
2005 Gulf War
Seats (m)
4,000 ??
Whilst history tells us that air 3,000
travel always bounces back 2,000
from shocks, and typically 1,000
Financial
crash
9/11
within 12-18 months, we are -
unlikely to see this pace of
recovery post COVID
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM HISTORY?
Global Flight & Capacity Growth 2000-2020
Indexed from 2000
220
200
180
Indexed Growth
160
140
120
100
Seats Flights Average Aircraft Size Airport Pairs
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
COVID-19 IMPACT ON GLOBAL AVIATION
Scheduled Flights by Month & Week for selected markets
Month/Week compared with equivalent month/week in previous year
January February March April May June July August September October November 30-Nov 07-Dec
Africa -3.8% -3.7% -20.8% -61.0% -70.9% -70.1% -67.4% -59.2% -54.3% -50.1% -49.0% -44.7% -42.1%
Europe -3.0% -2.3% -36.0% -89.0% -89.0% -81.7% -63.8% -53.9% -58.2% -61.6% -70.5% -74.5% -73.8%
Asia 5.0% -22.6% -27.9% -53.9% -47.9% -41.5% -36.1% -33.2% -31.0% -29.1% -30.7% -28.9% -29.2%
Latin America 2.6% 2.8% -11.8% -69.6% -74.3% -70.6% -66.6% -64.7% -59.5% -53.2% -45.8% -45.0% -44.9%
North America 1.7% 1.1% -7.1% -59.7% -73.1% -66.0% -52.1% -49.2% -50.9% -49.4% -45.0% -45.8% -48.3%
Middle East -1.8% -2.1% -27.3% -63.1% -78.6% -65.4% -62.8% -61.3% -58.0% -58.1% -54.5% -54.1% -53.7%
South West Pacific -2.4% -2.9% -17.2% -81.0% -80.2% -71.0% -64.4% -63.7% -62.2% -58.1% -55.7% -49.2% -45.3%
GLOBAL 1.5% -7.8% -21.5% -65.9% -69.1% -62.6% -52.2% -47.6% -47.7% -46.4% -46.0% -45.8% -46.1%
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
GLOBAL CAPACITY TO YEAR END AND BEYOND
Quarter 1 Capacity
2019-2021
120
100
80
Seats (m)
60
40
20
2019 2020 2021
Weekly capacity has settled around 55m mark since early November.
Carriers still projecting a final Christmas push up to 66m by end of December which
seems unlikely as 62m seats were removed in the last month for November-December
Despite the recent positive vaccine developments, the 2021 Q1 current schedule feels too
optimistic at this point MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
VACCINES AND VACATIONS: ARE THEY COMING SOON?
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
VACCINES AND VACATIONS: ARE THEY COMING SOON?
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
QUESTIONS
Vaccine
Vaccines/Health Market
Distribution/
Passports Recovery
Cargo
Airline Traveller
Sustainability Sentiment
Restructuring
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reservedMANAGE THE
IMPACT
INCREASE YOUR DATA FREQUENCY
OAG MONITOR CAPACITY CHANGES
RECOMMENDS GAIN BUSINESS INSIGHT NOW
ANALYSE – BE READY FOR GREEN SHOOTS
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reservedMANAGE THE
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MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reservedOUR PANEL
SPEAKER
John Grant Chief Analyst, OAG
With a wealth of experience across the global Deirdre Fulton
MODERATOR
aviation industry, John provides commentary on
market developments for OAG, making Partner, MIDAS Aviation
connections between what the data is telling us
Deirdre is a partner in an
and the trends and events occurring in the sector.
aviation consultancy providing
meaningful insight and analysis
to clients around the world.
Kentaro Yamaguchi Deirdre works closely with OAG
SPEAKER
on OTP and other publications.
Head of Route Development and Marketing
Mr Yamaguchi has 20 years of experience in aviation, having
worked for Japan’s Ministry of Land Infrastructure, Transport
and Tourism and Narita Airport for a number of years before Keekeat Ong
SPEAKER
moving to Nagoya Airport. In his current role he is responsible
for the airport’s route development and marketing and works Director of
closely with stakeholders to develop inbound travel to Japan. Network Planning,
Cebu Pacific
Hannah Pearson KK is currently the Director of
SPEAKER
Network Planning at Cebu
Founding Partner, Pear Anderson Pacific Air. He has over 17 years’
experience in the industry and
Hannah Pearson is the director of Pear Anderson, a tourism
was previously the Head of
research and sales representation consultancy specialising
Network Planning at AirAsia
in the Southeast Asian and Muslim tourism industry. She
Group prior to his current role.
puts together a weekly report tracking the impact of
COVID-19 on the SE Asian tourism industry, as well as co-
hosts a podcast, The South East Asia Travel Show. MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
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