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Linking housing markets
The effect of Crossrail on housing
markets in London
Crossrail
LondonLINKING HOUSING MARKETS
REPORT TITLE TEXT HERE
RESULTS
Contents Foreword
As transport links are created and
existing links enhanced, local Summary of
Crossrail Findings
economic activity can be improved
Crossrail through increased access to
geographic areas by new populations
_ 04 | Summary and communities. There are,
_ 06 | A Cataylst For Change however, costs throughout the
A broader recovery in the housing 20 minutes have seen big leaps in
transport infrastructure construction
_ 08 | Introduction process. Uncertainty in the
market over 2013 saw a positive
Crossrail effect spread across
activity. Transactions within 500
metres of Crossrail stations in
project planning phase creates a
_ 09 | Shifting Journey Times reluctance to buy or sell. Externalities
domestic housing markets in both those areas have doubled since
East and West London, confirming construction began in 2009.
_ 10 | West London associated with construction, such
an impact in the anticipation of the
as construction traffic and noise Less established markets further
_ 12 | East London pollution, cause blight while the
scheme along most of the line.
from Central London (areas beyond
_ 14 | Central London projects are being built – again
affecting the desire and ability to
There are signs that Crossrail is
already accounted for in property
Zone Three) have started to see price
growth in areas within 500 metres
buy and sell. Finally, at the end of the prices in much of Central London. The of stations.
project, changes to the landscape positive impact of Crossrail in Central
Crossrail has been a major stimulus
– both visual and audible – can also London is limited by the quality of
for new build development. One in
affect the desirability of existing and the existing transport options and
five new build homes sold in London
new sites. construction work deterring buyers.
since 2009 were within a mile of a
Housing markets in Zones Two Crossrail station.
and Three where journey time to
Central London has dropped below
Authors
JOHNNY MORRIS FIONNUALA EARLEY DAVID FELL
Head of Research Research Director Research Analyst
4/5 www.countrywide.co.uk
3LINKING HOUSING MARKETS CROSSRAIL
Crossrail Summary
his research addresses the stimulated by the project, careful Central London to the East and further closer to London averages. Within per cent from 2009, slightly lower prospects, it is market activity that is
T question: What impact is
Crossrail currently having on
examination of local market trends
allows the effects to be estimated.
along the line to the West. 500 metres of London stations
transactions grew by 54 per cent,
growth of 27 per cent was recorded
within 500 metres. This compares
currently enjoying the most marked
Crossrail effect in London.
A Crossrail effect on housing markets
local housing markets across London? and within a mile 44 per cent. to price growth across London over
The housing market saw a shift in gear is apparent across the line, although in As well as the impact on existing
This compares to an increase in the same period of 26 per cent. In
By examining activity and prices over 2013. Economic recovery and many areas it accelerated over 2013. housing markets, Crossrail continues
transactions of 52 per cent across 2013 prices around stations grew by
in the housing markets around increasing market confidence spread Transactions within a mile of Crossrail to be a major stimulus for new build
London in the last five years. Prior 10 per cent, broadly in line with the
stations we identify the areas that housing growth across the capital, stations grew by 21 per cent in 2013, development. Since 2009, one in five
to 2013, only a few Crossrail wider London average of 11 per cent.
are experiencing a Crossrail effect, leaving the previously untouchable Prime well above the London average of 13 per new build sales across London were
stations, often in the most active Outer London stations, however,
quantify that impact and provide Central London markets looking a little cent. Sales within 500 metres (0.3 miles) within a mile of a Crossrail station.
markets or with a head start in the have dragged down the average
some pointers on how that effect deflated in comparison. This shift in the grew a little faster at 23 per cent. One in While new home delivery so far has
regeneration race, were seeing the price growth in some cases. While a
may develop in future. Whilst it is source and quantity of demand has also ten home sales in London in 2013 were been concentrated in Central London
prospects of the future transport number of individual stations have
difficult to divorce the impact of driven a step change in the performance within a mile of a Crossrail station. and Canary Wharf, as the scheme
links impacting on local markets. seen some very strong price growth
Crossrail from wider market factors, of the housing markets surrounding progresses there will be a significant
Crossrail construction started in driven by purchasers interested in
such as regeneration prospects Crossrail stations. There is evidence of Within one mile of stations across number of new homes delivered further
2009. Since then, the longer term medium to long term residential
and development opportunities the Crossrail effect spreading out from London house prices rose by 34 along the line to the East and West.
picture has seen activity perform investments and regeneration
Crossrail’s 36 housing Price as a percentage of Local
Authority average
12 month transaction growth, 500m
markets in numbers 12 month price growth, 500m Households within 500m 118% 116% 72% 87% 67% 94% 319%
Tunnel
1% 12% 17% 21% 9% 5% 10%
140% 49% 31% -8% -36% -9% -34%
1,400 4,300 3,400 3,000 2,900 2,200 1,500
106% 102% 142% 94% 115% 154% 97% 138% 189%
-1% 3% -7% 16% 0% 7% 12% 36% 70% Forest Harold
Stratford Gate Ilford Goodmayes Romford Wood Shenfield
60% 118% 36% -1% 33% 66% -8% 11% -11%
700 2,400 700 1,800 3,000 3,300 7,300 5,100 2,300
Hayes & Ealing Tottenham Liverpool
Taplow Slough Iver Harlington Hanwell Broadway Paddington Court Road Street Maryland Manor Park Seven Kings Chadwell Gidea Brentwood
Heath Park
105% 102% 85% 136%
-3% 15% 14% 67% 120% 3%
14% 12%
48% 44% 69% 53%
-12% 50%
Maidenhead Burnham Langley West Southall West Acton Bond Farringdon Whitechapel 4,900 2,500 3,700 3,600
Dreyton Ealing Main Lane Street 3,500 2,600
Heathrow Canary
66% 125% 132% 112% 120% 249% 140% 80% Wharf 150% 4% 65% 2,500
82% Airport 71%
13% 4% -4% -6% -2% 0% 18% -4% Custom
0% 3% House 116% 13% 76% 3,800
17% -26% 35% 35% 60% 30% -13% 74%
43% 100%
2,000 2,000 1,100 4,700 3,800 3,800 4,300 6,300 Woolwich 60% -2% 1% 4,600
3,000 2,200
Abbey
Wood 73% 16% -9% 2,700
4/5LINKING HOUSING MARKETS TEXT HERE
CROSSRAIL
A Catalyst The 37 Crossrail stations are, and will continue
to be, the focal points for new build development
A Catalyst for Regeneration
for Change in the capital OVER SITE DEVELOPMENT REDEVELOPMENT SCHEME
PADDINGTON MAIDENHEAD
rossrail has been a re-development) in Tottenham Court last five years (2009-2013) were built Name: Paddington Triangle
C
Scheme: £150m town centre and waterway
Type: Oversite development
significant driver of Road, set to re-vitalise the eastern end within a mile of a Crossrail station. regeneration
Scheme: 325,000 ft² of office and retail space Includes: 200 flats, retail and office space
regeneration and new of Oxford Street. Canary Wharf alone has seen nearly Status: In planning Status: In planning
development. Locations close to 2,000 new build sales within a mile
Crossrail stations have also become
both existing and new Crossrail of the station, accounting for a
the focal point of many major
stations have been the focus of quarter of all new homes built along
regeneration projects across the BOND STREET SOUTHALL
efforts to stimulate development by the route so far.
route outside of Central London, an Name: 65 Davies Street Scheme: Redevelopment of Southall Gas works
property companies, developers, Type: Oversite development
accelerant to kick start long planned Central London and Canary Wharf Scheme: 115,000 ft² of office space
Includes: 3,750 homes, school and retail units
Local Authorities and the Greater Status: In design, completion set for 2019
schemes. Maidenhead, Ealing account for two thirds of new Status: In planning
London Authority. These groups
and Southall all have notable plans homes sales along the Crossrail
have been attempting to capitalise
to transform the areas around the route. As the scheme progresses
on the value added to the housing
Crossrail stations. and large projects come out of the
market by improved transport links TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD EALING BROADWAY
ground in areas such as Ealing,
into Central London and other areas In other areas of London the stations Name: Dean Street Scheme: Dickens Yard
Southall and Stratford we will see Type: Oversite development
of employment. are forming the lynch pin for long Includes: 698 flats and 22 retail units
that provision of new homes shift Scheme: 105,000 ft² of residential space Status: In construction, completion set for 2016
running development projects, (92 units) & 12,000 ft² retail space
Twelve major property development further out from Central London.
cementing the improvement in an Status: In planning
opportunities have even been This will be buoyed and supported
area. Woolwich is a prime example,
integrated into the construction by the recovering market, which has
although the station wasn’t included
of Crossrail. These over-site seen a surge of domestic demand FARRINGDON
TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD
in the original scope of the Crossrail
developments (OSDs) are mixed use return to the London housing Name: Cowcross Scheme: Public realm improvements and
project. An agreement with, and construction of 4 new mixed use blocks
opportunities and predominantly market. The shortage of new Type: Oversite development
funding from, Berkeley Homes and Scheme: 207,000 ft² office and retail space Includes: 500,000 ft² of retail, office
located in Central London. OSDs are homes and affordability pressures Status: In planning and residential accommodation
the Royal Borough of Greenwich
poised to add to the transformative in Central London will mean many Status: Planning approved, construction
secured the addition of Woolwich set to start in 2017
effect of the new Crossrail links of these areas, with the prospect of
station to the route.
through complementary new build improving transport links, will be the
development. Highlights include There has already been a significant perfect place for frustrated demand Where: WOOLWICH Where: ABBEY WOOD
the 325,000 sq ft mixed use scheme quantum of residential development to be realised. Name: Arsenal Way Scheme: Cross Quarter
above Paddington station recently around Crossrail stations since the Type: Oversite development Includes: 200 units and 81,000 ft² supermarket
Scheme: 398 residential units Status: Construction starts mid 2014
granted planning permission and three project began in 2009. One in five Status: In planning
sites (along with the station new homes sold in London in the
New Build Sales
59
9
6
2
9
36
63
73
60
19
within a Mile
of Crossrail
Stations since
2009
MAIDENHEAD
TAPLOW
BURNHAM
SLOUGH
LANGLEY
IVER
WEST DRAYTON
SOUTHALL
HANWELL
BOND STREET
FARRINGDON
CANARY WHARF
STRATFORD
CUSTOM HOUSE
MARYLAND
WOOLWICH
FOREST GATE
ABBEY WOOD
MANOR PARK
ILLFORD
HAYES AND HARLINGTON
WEST EALING
EALING BROADWAY
ACTON MAIN LINE
PADDINGTON
TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD
LIVERPOOL STREET
WHITECHAPEL
SEVEN KINGS
GOODMAYES
CHADWELL HEATH
ROMFORD
GIDEA PARK
HAROLD WOOD
BRENTWOOD
SHENFIELD
NUMBER OF
NEW BUILD SALES
6/7LINKING HOUSING MARKETS
REPORT TITLE CROSSRAIL
TEXT HERE
Introduction Shifting Journey Times
While Crossrail construction started in 2009 The drop in commute time to 20 minutes
the scheme has been in the works for well over 30 years is proving a significant market driver
he concept of an East – West rail link across London is far from new. In its current form the idea of ‘Crossrail’ arket activity around Crossrail stations has 500 metres of a Crossrail station remained unchanged
T was first proposed in 1974 by a Greater London Council study into London’s railway capacity. A tunnel linking
Paddington and Liverpool Street was proposed to relieve congestion at Central London stations. Although the
M soared in areas where commuting times into
central London will fall to less than 20 minutes.
between 2009 and 2013 despite the total number of sales
rising 52 per cent in London over the same period. Other
proposals didn’t come to fruition, parts of the route and existing tunnels were safeguarded from future development. In 2005, The areas close to Crossrail stations in Zones Two and transport options and the effect of disruption around
the bill which would ultimately lead to Crossrail being built in a form that is recognisable today was introduced to Parliament. Three have seen the largest uplift in transactions. The Crossrail sites have been responsible for buyers avoiding
It received royal ascent in 2008 with a small number of amendments made to the route. number of transactions within 500 metres of Crossrail these areas.
stations in Zones Two and Three has risen 116 per cent
Crossrail will substantially cut the journey times from a
May 2009 since Crossrail construction began in 2009 compared to a
number of stations outside London, bringing them for
July 2005 Crossrail construction May 2018 52 per cent increase in sales across London as a whole.
Crossrail Bill launched work starts the first time into commuter belt territory. In the suburban
Paddington link opens
With the areas around most stations in Central London confines of Zones Six and Seven, fast non-stopping intercity
already well connected, the number of buyers looking to services allow Central London to be reached quickly. While
purchase directly because of Crossrail close to stations has transactions have grown in these areas the effect has so far
July 2008 Feb 2014 December 2019 been more limited. In Zone One the number of sales within been concentrated within 500 metres of stations.
Crossrail Act recieved 70% of tunnelling Full service starts
royal ascent work completed
Change in transaction numbers from 2009
500M
1 MILE
Method COST OF CONSTRUCTION
140%
Crossrail: ZONE 1 ZONES 4-5 ZONES 6-7
Disruption caused by Employment is often local. Commuter belt to the east home to
£14.8bn
120%
construction works puts off Existing journey times into the suburban commuter. Fast trains
100% would be customers central London prohibitive. to Liverpool Street make commuting
This research is based on an particular focus on the performance Crossrail will not change this possible.
sustantially
analysis of local housing markets over 2013. While the Crossrail Act HS1: 80%
around 36 of the planned Crossrail
stations (Heathrow is excluded
was passed in 2008, because of the
natural lag in Land Registry market £6.1bn 60%
ZONES 2-3
due to a lack of housing stock). data and the falling market in 2008, HS2 phase 1: 40%
Journey times cut in half.
£17.2bn
Commute cut from average of
For each station, analysis was 2009 was considered to be the best 20% 28 minutes to 14.
conducted at radii of 500 metres starting point for the analysis.
0%
(0.3miles) and 1 mile, taking
It is difficult to ascribe the fortunes TRACK LENGTH:
into account access to stations, -20%
of a market to any one particular
and compared to local authority Crossrail: 73 miles ZONE 1 ZONE 2 ZONE 3 ZONE 4 ZONE 5 ZONE 6 ZONE 7
effect particularly that of future -40%
performance to give a wider Central Line: 46 miles
infrastructure like Crossrail and
context. The analysis was based
over a period that has seen the ESTIMATED CAPACITY:
on price paid transactional data
market crash and recover. Through Crossrail: 200m journeys per year
from the Land Registry and
the combination of quantitative Central Line: 260m
demographic data from the 2011
analysis of market data and
and 2001 Censuses. PEAK TRAINS PER HOUR:
qualitative research into the
Where applicable, data from behaviour of market participants Crossrail:
24
local agency offices as well as we aim to shed new light on the
interviews with local managers impact of Crossrail with respect to The more established housing markets in West London London has, so far, been more extensive. Areas up to,
was incorporated to test assertions local market performance. Central Line: have been quicker to price in Crossrail than in East and beyond, a mile from Crossrail stations have seen
developed using the analysis.
Market performance was examined
between 2009 and 2013 with
34 London. Developers in West London secured large
sites in Paddington, Acton and Ealing well in advance
of Crossrail’s inception. The effect of Crossrail in West
both prices and transactions grow at a rate well above the
local authority average with buyers more confident that
Crossrail will have significantly positive effect on the area.
8/9
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LINKING HOUSING MARKETS CROSSRAIL
West London Summary Ealing Broadway
Crossrail is right at the front of both buyers NUMBER OF
12 MONTH 5 YEAR HOUSEHOLDS
and sellers minds in Ealing
2013 has seen the impact of Crossrail being
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION
3,317
GROWTH GROWTH
felt much further along the line 66% 169%
AVG. PRICE FLAT – £345,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £849,000
19,543
27% 67%
aling Broadway already benefits within 500m have also picked up, doubling 124,082
T
he Crossrail additions to the West
of London will cut journey times
Estimate of Crossrail impact on housing
markets surrounding Crossrail stations E from rail links to Paddington and
the Central Line across London,
meaning journey times will only
since 2009. Within the wider area, a mile
around the station, price growth is much
closer to the local averages, although activity
16% 55%
to Central London by nearly half see a 10 minute reduction with Crossrail. saw a significant increase in 2013. 12 MONTH 5 YEAR
an hour on average. At peak times there will Interest in the scheme from local sellers and
HPI GROWTH HPI GROWTH
investors is still very high though. Crossrail has become a major consideration
be between four and ten Crossrail trains an with vendors in the area; anecdotal evidence
STATION PAST IMPACT FUTURE IMPACT 7% 48%
hour. Whilst not as frequent as East London Price growth figures show that there has suggests many are considering putting off 500M
already been activity close to the station; selling in the expectation that prices, driven
services, the fall in travel time and direct link from 2009 the average price of properties by development and the Crossrail link, will 6% 25% 1MILE
to central stations (removing the need for Hanwell sold within 500m of Ealing Broadway grew outperform the wider area. It seems Crossrail
23%
EALING
a change at Paddington) will improve the by 48 per cent versus an average 23 per cent is already well on its way to being priced into 8% BOROUGH
AVERAGE
West Ealing growth in the local authority. Transactions the Ealing market.
commute to London from many stations
Hanwell
in West London significantly. The promise
West Drayton
of a better commute is, however, only just
starting to have noticeable impact in the Langley
areas beyond Ealing Broadway, as Crossrail The new line will radically transform Hanwell’s 12 MONTH 5 YEAR NUMBER OF
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION HOUSEHOLDS
completion is still four years away Southall links to the rest of London GROWTH GROWTH
Markets around stations on the Western 2,993
Maidenhead 33% 71%
section of the line saw large increases in AVG. PRICE FLAT – £265,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £489,000
23,560
transaction activity in 2013. Within 500 22% 53%
Acton Main Line
metres of a Crossrail station the increase anwell stands to see the biggest change in 2013. A mile from the station 124,082
is 36 per cent, well above the 12 per cent
growth recorded in West London as a
Ealing Broadway H reduction in journey time to
Central London of any Crossrail
station in West London. A train
Hanwell has outperformed the local average
over the last 5 years, with prices standing at
116 per cent of the local authority average, up
16% 55%
12 MONTH 5 YEAR
whole. The growth is driven by stations Slough from Hanwell to Tottenham Court Road will from 109 per cent in 2009. HPI GROWTH HPI GROWTH
only take 15 minutes with Crossrail, half an
further along the line led by Slough and hour less than at present. Hanwell has certainly benefited already
Southall, which prior to 2013 had seen very Hayes & Harlington from future Crossrail prospects, but the area 0% 30%
Activity in Hanwell around the station has been has also been buoyed by buyers looking
little activity. high since 2009, within 500m of the station beyond Ealing as prices rise. Hanwell
500M
Burnham transactions increased by 71 per cent from seems to be well poised to benefit from
7% 32% 1MILE
Over 2013 prices in West London appear 2009 and by a third over the last 12 months. Crossrail, with increased market activity
to have followed the wider trend, with around the station yet to translate into 8% 23% EALING
Iver
BOROUGH
Price growth has been subdued though. significant house price growth. AVERAGE
prices within a mile of the station up 6 per Prices within 500m of the station saw little
cent in 2013. Lower price growth closer Taplow
to stations, 1 per cent within 500 metres,
is representative of stations with limited
Maidenhead
LOW IMPACT MEDIUM IMPACT HIGH IMPACT
housing stock and less desirable areas
The Crossrail effect is starting to materialise
immediately surrounding stations. There 12 MONTH 5 YEAR NUMBER OF
in the Maidenhead housing market TRANSACTION TRANSACTION HOUSEHOLDS
will be a large transformation in these areas West London Key Numbers
GROWTH GROWTH
once regeneration schemes such as those 1,981
in Maidenhead and Southall take root. 17% 20%
12,344
MEASURE 500M 1MILE WEST LONDON AVG. PRICE FLAT – £205,500 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £395,500
Since 2009 West London has benefitted TRANSACTION
36%
23% 12% 31% 36%
GROWTH 2013 hile Crossrail only offers a small occupiers in the area. But there are reports of
58,349
W
from stronger price growth than East
London, seeing prices rise by 20 per cent
time saving on the journey from investors looking for property in the centre in 15% 22%
TRANSACTION
63%
41% 53% Maidenhead to Paddington, the anticipation of the Crossrail link. The pick-up in
from 2009. The higher value markets in GROWTH FROM link it provides to Central London demand led to higher price growth within 500
2009 and Canary Wharf will reduce journey times by metres of the station over 2013 and a 17 per 12 MONTH 5 YEAR
West London have been better positioned eliminating multiple changes. cent increase in transactions.
HPI GROWTH HPI GROWTH
to take advantage of the recovering housing PRICE GROWTH A Crossrail effect on prices has not yet been The heady mix of Crossrail and the
market. It is the more expensive areas in 2013 1% 6% 7%
seen in Maidenhead. The area closest to redevelopment of the town centre through
13% 0%
the station has underperformed the local the Kings Triangle and Chapel Arches 500M
the capital that have recovered fastest in PRICE GROWTH 6% 9%
averages since 2009 with prices within 500m schemes will transform the centre of 1MILE
recent years. FROM 2009 20% 23% 20% at only two thirds of the local average. Maidenhead. Most value growth is likely
to be realised after the redevelopment is 4% 14% WINDSOR &
MAIDENHEAD
The prospect of Crossrail services coming to underway and Crossrail is operational. AVERAGE
Maidenhead in 2019 has yet to excite owner
10/11LINKING HOUSING MARKETS CROSSRAIL
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East London Summary Stratford
12 MONTH
There’s more to talk about than just Crossrail TRANSACTION
5 YEAR
TRANSACTION NUMBER OF
GROWTH GROWTH HOUSEHOLDS
2013 was the year East Enders 284%
1,361
AVG. PRICE FLAT – £250,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £350,000
140%
discovered Crossrail 23,179
37% 85%
he impact of Crossrail on local capacity and enhancing Stratford’s status
101,519
013 was the year Crossrail
Estimate of Crossrail impact on housing markets T housing markets in Stratford
is yet to be felt, and is likely to
as a transport hub, will have little impact on
journey times. The majority of new residential
28% 49%
2 began to be priced into housing
markets across East London, the
surrounding Crossrail stations remain minimal. While Stratford is
a major transport and retail hub, the number
of households within walking distance of the
development, most notably the conversion of
the former Olympic Village into housing, will
be served primarily by existing HS1 services
12 MONTH
HPI GROWTH
5 YEAR
HPI GROWTH
STATION PAST IMPACT FUTURE IMPACT station is extremely limited. Given a lack of from Stratford International which reach
primary beneficiaries being areas close to 1% 43%
nearby housing, many of Stratford’s residents Central London in seven minutes.
Crossrail stations – generally within 500 use existing closer stations.
metres. Prior to 2013, despite the high
Over the last four years price growth in Stratford 2% 20% 500M
Woolwich At present four lines connect Stratford to has been high, four times the 11% seen in
profile nature of the Crossrail project, prices central London, the fastest of which takes Newham over the same period. The effect of
4%
1MILE
less than 10 minutes. The introduction of Olympic regeneration and the limited effect of 11%
and transactions in housing markets close Abbey Wood Crossrail, while significantly increasing Crossrail now seem to be priced in.
NEWHAM
AVERAGE
to Crossrail stations performed at levels
similar to the wider local authority average Forest Gate
Woolwich
in which they sit. The main beneficiaries
of Crossrail have been the areas around Custom House
stations in Zones Two, Three and Four,
particularly where journey times into central Stratford All aboard for Woolwich NUMBER OF
12 MONTH 5 YEAR
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION HOUSEHOLDS
London will fall below 20 minutes. GROWTH GROWTH
For many emerging locations, price and
Canary Wharf
AVG. PRICE FLAT – £250,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £300,000
4,592
1% 413%
transaction growth has so far been limited Brentwood
17,084
to areas immediately around Crossrail he regeneration of Woolwich Despite price rises over the last 12 months, 29% 113%
stations with market activity focussed Shenfield
T has been taking place for a much of Crossrail’s impact is yet to be felt. 101,045
on a street by street basis within a mile
number of years. Most recently, Less than a third of the 4,600 households
4% 51%
the extension of the Docklands within 500m of Woolwich Crossrail station live
of Crossrail stations. Abbey Wood and Manor Park Light Railway opened in 2009 and the first in privately owned or rented accommodation;
Forest Gate are both examples where the phase of the Royal Arsenal development was the majority renting from the Local Authority. 12 MONTH 5 YEAR
HPI GROWTH HPI GROWTH
Illford completed in 2010. The original Crossrail The impact of regeneration in Woolwich has
impact of Crossrail is being felt close to route did not include a station at Woolwich been to expand considerably the amount of
stations, yet less than a mile away housing however funding from Berkley Homes meant privately owned housing stock in the area and -2% 6%
Maryland one was subsequently added. Significant with it the number of transactions.
markets remain unchanged. Areas 500M
regeneration elsewhere in the area and 11% 20%
surrounding more established housing Gidea Park uncertainty about the Crossrail route has 1MILE
meant that it has not been until 2013 that the
markets such as Stratford and Canary impact of Crossrail has begun to be felt on
8% 16% GREENWICH
AVERAGE
Wharf have seen Crossrail kindle stronger Harold Wood house prices.
transaction and house price growth further
away from stations. Romford
Over the last 12 months prices in the areas Goodmayes Abbey Wood
500 metres around Crossrail stations in
East London grew 11 per cent. This figure Seven Kings Times are changing at the end of the line 12 MONTH 5 YEAR NUMBER OF
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION HOUSEHOLDS
is higher than East London house price GROWTH GROWTH
growth as a whole, and particularly notable Chadwell Heath
AVG. PRICE FLAT – £150,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £270,000
2,734
as it has occurred in areas which have -9% -7%
traditionally seen below average price
LOW IMPACT MEDIUM IMPACT HIGH IMPACT
17,751
growth. However, the increase in price and he housing market in Abbey 2013 was the year Crossrail began to be 4% 35%
transactions remains limited to the areas
close to Crossrail stations particularly
East London Key Numbers T Wood can be divided into two
segments. North of the railway
is Thamesmead, London’s
priced into the housing market in Abbey
Wood. While there has been considerable
local coverage of Crossrail, before 2012 there
4% 51%
101,045
MEASURE 500M 1 MILE EAST LONDON second largest public housing development. had yet to be an impact on house prices.
beyond of Zone Three. A mile away, Regeneration schemes, with the exception Despite strong price growth over the last 12 MONTH 5 YEAR
HPI GROWTH HPI GROWTH
average prices across East London rose TRANSACTION of West Thamesmead, have tended to be 12 months, prices in Abbey Wood remain
just five per cent over the same period. GROWTH 2013 30% 27% 18% small scale. South of the railway is the Bostall well below the Greenwich average. Given
Estate built in 1900 by the Co-operative Crossrail will cut journey times into Tottenham 16% 17%
TRANSACTION movement. Over the last five years, the Court Road from 46 to 23 minutes and the
500M
GROWTH FROM 2009 58% 46% 55% impact of Crossrail has been larger on the high frequency of services, the area still looks
6% 10%
latter than the former. In the longer term competitively priced in comparison to similar 1MILE
PRICE GROWTH 2013 9% 5% 7% however, Crossrail will aid in the regeneration parts of London.
of Thamesmead. 8% 16% GREENWICH
AVERAGE
PRICES GROWTH 2009 10% 13% 13%
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Central London Summary Bond Street
The housing market around Bond Street stands little 12 MONTH
TRANSACTION
5 YEAR
TRANSACTION NUMBER OF
GROWTH GROWTH HOUSEHOLDS
to gain from Crossrail in the short term
Wider market forces currently dwarf
(2013) (2009-2013)
3,789
Crossrail in Central London AVG. PRICE FLAT – £1,244,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £3,742,000
30% -4%
30,050
9% 11%
ond Street station already has The area closest to the station has
105,772
T
he driving narrative behind
the prime markets in Central
STATION PAST IMPACT FUTURE IMPACT
B very good underground links
to the rest of London. The
Jubilee line and Central lines
underperformed in both activity and price
growth. This could be attributed in part to the
development work around the station causing
7% 21%
London is a familiar one. Since run through the station while the Bakerloo disruption. Although transactions grew by
12 MONTH
HPI GROWTH
5 YEAR
HPI GROWTH
(2013) (2009-2013)
the downturn in 2008 the market has been Whitechapel line at Oxford Circus and Piccadilly and 30 per cent within 500 metres in the station in
propelled forward by an influx of foreign Victoria Lines at Green Park are within 2013 they are still below 2009 levels.
walking distance. While Bond Street will 0% 38%
investment, leading these housing markets Tottenham CR undoubtedly benefit from increased traffic to The strong price performance within a mile 500M
of the station is driven by market forces in
to recover before anywhere else in the UK. and from the station, the increase in travel
Prime Central London rather than impact of
18% 79% 1MILE
times or connectivity for residents is unlikely
In Prime Central London prices now stand Farringdon to be tangible enough to have a significant Crossrail. A mile radius around Bond Street
46%
WESTMINSTER
impact on purchasing decisions. station includes Mayfair, Marylebone, Soho, 12%
40 per cent above peak levels. High prices St James and the South end of Regent’s Park.
in Prime Central London, a lack of stock and Paddington
steady increases in UK buyers in the wider
Central London market have seen growth Liverpool St. Farringdon
shift beyond Mayfair, Belgravia and Chelsea
in 2013. The recovery in the economy has Bond St. A major new transport hub, but everybody already knows that 12 MONTH 5 YEAR NUMBER OF
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION HOUSEHOLDS
GROWTH GROWTH
stimulated huge demand in areas such as
4,302
(2013) (2009-2013)
Fulham, Islington and Hackney. AVG. PRICE FLAT – £850,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £2,000,000
LOW IMPACT MEDIUM IMPACT HIGH IMPACT -13% -15%
In this environment it is very hard to 40,100
divorce the impact of the wider market arringdon, the Crossrail poster a collapse in the number of transactions. 12% 20%
in Central London from that of Crossrail.
Price growth is, however, in line with the
Central London Key Numbers
F child, has been consistently
promoted as one of the areas
set to benefit the most. An East
The number of sales within 500m of the
Farringdon station has fallen 15 per cent from
2009, itself the lowest year on record since
-6% 16%
93,556
– West Crossrail service will supplement an 1995. The impact in the short to medium term
wider area over the last 12 months and MEASURE 500M 1MILE CENTRAL LONDON upgraded North – South Thameslink meaning has been a degree of uplift in house prices. 12 MONTH 5 YEAR
HPI GROWTH HPI GROWTH
below wider averages since 2009. This Farringdon will become exceedingly well Post 2018, once Crossrail is operational, (2013) (2009-2013)
growth pattern implies that the pricing in connected not only to the rest of London but the number of sellers may increase as
TRANSACTION 7% 11% 12% also to much of the South East. households look to realise house price gains. 18% 48%
these areas is actually defined by wider GROWTH 2013 A substantial number of sellers coming to
With Crossrail projected by many to have the market could certainly slow down what
500M
forces, a concept supported by lower a significant impact on residential prices in 15% 53%
TRANSACTION 12% 27% 46% would otherwise be a steady growth in value 1MILE
transaction growth. Farringdon, many would-be sellers have in the area.
GROWTH FROM 2009
delayed the decision. The result has been 12% 48% ISLINGTON
AVERAGE
It makes sense for housing markets to
PRICE GROWTH 2013 16% 15% 12%
behave in this manner, as many of these
stations will be used by those travelling from
Whitechapel
PRICE GROWTH
other parts of London for work, shopping FROM 2009 44% 56% 46%
or leisure and many of the Central London
stations are already very well connected.
The market in Whitechapel is in full swing with Crossrail 12 MONTH
TRANSACTION
5 YEAR
TRANSACTION
NUMBER OF
HOUSEHOLDS
driving it along GROWTH GROWTH
6,305
(2013) (2009-2013)
74% 105%
AVG. PRICE FLAT – £450,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £850,000
48,074
18% 83%
itting on the fringe of the city Housing markets in the 500 metres area 101,257
S less than 3.5 miles from Charing
Cross, Whitechapel represents
Crossrail’s dividing point. From
surrounding Whitechapel station are diverse.
One in two properties are owned by a Local
Authority or Housing Association. Despite a
10%
12 MONTH
30%
5 YEAR
HPI GROWTH HPI GROWTH
Whitechapel trains head North East to significant presence by a number of national (2013) (2009-2013)
Shenfield and South East to Abbey Wood. As house builders, new property still only accounts
a result, Whitechapel will be the only station for only 10 per cent of sales. Whitechapel has
outside Zone One serviced by 24 trains however seen the cost of a new build property 9% 30%
per hour. Despite Whitechapel’s relatively rise at the fastest rate in London. Average new 500M
central location it is poorly connected both build prices increased 50 per cent over the 8% 28% 1MILE
westwards to Central London and eastwards last 12 months, as house builders increasingly
to Canary Wharf. target the top end of the market.
9%
TOWER
18% HAMLETS
AVERAGE
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