Crossrail London - Hamptons International

Linking housing markets
               The effect of Crossrail on housing
               markets in London


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Contents                                                Foreword
                                                        As transport links are created and
                                                        existing links enhanced, local             Summary of
                                                                                                   Crossrail Findings
                                                        economic activity can be improved
Crossrail                                               through increased access to
                                                        geographic areas by new populations
_ 04 | Summary                                          and communities. There are,
_ 06 | A Cataylst For Change                            however, costs throughout the
                                                                                                    A broader recovery in the housing        20 minutes have seen big leaps in
                                                        transport infrastructure construction
_ 08 | Introduction                                     process. Uncertainty in the
                                                                                                   market over 2013 saw a positive
                                                                                                   Crossrail effect spread across
                                                                                                                                             activity. Transactions within 500
                                                                                                                                             metres of Crossrail stations in
                                                        project planning phase creates a
_ 09 | Shifting Journey Times                           reluctance to buy or sell. Externalities
                                                                                                   domestic housing markets in both          those areas have doubled since
                                                                                                   East and West London, confirming          construction began in 2009.
_ 10 | West London                                      associated with construction, such
                                                                                                   an impact in the anticipation of the
                                                        as construction traffic and noise                                                      Less established markets further
_ 12 | East London                                      pollution, cause blight while the
                                                                                                   scheme along most of the line.
                                                                                                                                             from Central London (areas beyond

_ 14 | Central London                                   projects are being built – again
                                                        affecting the desire and ability to
                                                                                                     There are signs that Crossrail is
                                                                                                   already accounted for in property
                                                                                                                                             Zone Three) have started to see price
                                                                                                                                             growth in areas within 500 metres
                                                        buy and sell. Finally, at the end of the   prices in much of Central London. The     of stations.
                                                        project, changes to the landscape          positive impact of Crossrail in Central
                                                                                                                                               Crossrail has been a major stimulus
                                                        – both visual and audible – can also       London is limited by the quality of
                                                                                                                                             for new build development. One in
                                                        affect the desirability of existing and    the existing transport options and
                                                                                                                                             five new build homes sold in London
                                                        new sites.                                 construction work deterring buyers.
                                                                                                                                             since 2009 were within a mile of a
                                                                                                    Housing markets in Zones Two             Crossrail station.
                                                                                                   and Three where journey time to
                                                                                                   Central London has dropped below


                                                                                                   JOHNNY MORRIS                FIONNUALA EARLEY           DAVID FELL
                                                                                                   Head of Research             Research Director          Research Analyst

LINKING HOUSING MARKETS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          CROSSRAIL

Crossrail Summary

          his research addresses the             stimulated by the project, careful                 Central London to the East and further                            closer to London averages. Within           per cent from 2009, slightly lower                 prospects, it is market activity that is
  T       question: What impact is
          Crossrail currently having on
                                                 examination of local market trends
                                                 allows the effects to be estimated.
                                                                                                    along the line to the West.                                       500 metres of London stations
                                                                                                                                                                      transactions grew by 54 per cent,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  growth of 27 per cent was recorded
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  within 500 metres. This compares
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     currently enjoying the most marked
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Crossrail effect in London.
                                                                                                    A Crossrail effect on housing markets
local housing markets across London?                                                                                                                                  and within a mile 44 per cent.              to price growth across London over
                                                 The housing market saw a shift in gear             is apparent across the line, although in                                                                                                                         As well as the impact on existing
                                                                                                                                                                      This compares to an increase in             the same period of 26 per cent. In
By examining activity and prices                 over 2013. Economic recovery and                   many areas it accelerated over 2013.                                                                                                                             housing markets, Crossrail continues
                                                                                                                                                                      transactions of 52 per cent across          2013 prices around stations grew by
in the housing markets around                    increasing market confidence spread                Transactions within a mile of Crossrail                                                                                                                          to be a major stimulus for new build
                                                                                                                                                                      London in the last five years. Prior        10 per cent, broadly in line with the
stations we identify the areas that              housing growth across the capital,                 stations grew by 21 per cent in 2013,                                                                                                                            development. Since 2009, one in five
                                                                                                                                                                      to 2013, only a few Crossrail               wider London average of 11 per cent.
are experiencing a Crossrail effect,             leaving the previously untouchable Prime           well above the London average of 13 per                                                                                                                          new build sales across London were
                                                                                                                                                                      stations, often in the most active          Outer London stations, however,
quantify that impact and provide                 Central London markets looking a little            cent. Sales within 500 metres (0.3 miles)                                                                                                                        within a mile of a Crossrail station.
                                                                                                                                                                      markets or with a head start in the         have dragged down the average
some pointers on how that effect                 deflated in comparison. This shift in the          grew a little faster at 23 per cent. One in                                                                                                                      While new home delivery so far has
                                                                                                                                                                      regeneration race, were seeing the          price growth in some cases. While a
may develop in future. Whilst it is              source and quantity of demand has also             ten home sales in London in 2013 were                                                                                                                            been concentrated in Central London
                                                                                                                                                                      prospects of the future transport           number of individual stations have
difficult to divorce the impact of               driven a step change in the performance            within a mile of a Crossrail station.                                                                                                                            and Canary Wharf, as the scheme
                                                                                                                                                                      links impacting on local markets.           seen some very strong price growth
Crossrail from wider market factors,             of the housing markets surrounding                                                                                                                                                                                  progresses there will be a significant
                                                                                                    Crossrail construction started in                                                                             driven by purchasers interested in
such as regeneration prospects                   Crossrail stations. There is evidence of                                                                             Within one mile of stations across                                                             number of new homes delivered further
                                                                                                    2009. Since then, the longer term                                                                             medium to long term residential
and development opportunities                    the Crossrail effect spreading out from                                                                              London house prices rose by 34                                                                 along the line to the East and West.
                                                                                                    picture has seen activity perform                                                                             investments and regeneration

Crossrail’s 36 housing                                                     Price as a percentage of Local
                                                                           Authority average
                                                                                                              12 month transaction growth, 500m

markets in numbers                                                         12 month price growth, 500m        Households within 500m                                                                   118%              116%            72%             87%             67%             94%             319%
                                                                                                                                                                                                       1%                12%             17%             21%             9%              5%              10%

                                                                                                                                                                                                       140%              49%             31%             -8%             -36%            -9%             -34%

                                                                                                                                                                                                       1,400             4,300           3,400           3,000           2,900           2,200           1,500
             106%               102%               142%                 94%                 115%               154%              97%                 138%                 189%

             -1%                3%                 -7%                  16%                 0%                 7%                12%                 36%                  70%                                         Forest                                                         Harold
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Stratford            Gate         Ilford       Goodmayes         Romford           Wood          Shenfield
             60%                118%               36%                  -1%                 33%                66%               -8%                 11%                  -11%

             700                2,400              700                  1,800               3,000              3,300             7,300               5,100                2,300

                                                                    Hayes &                                  Ealing                             Tottenham             Liverpool
         Taplow              Slough              Iver              Harlington           Hanwell            Broadway       Paddington            Court Road              Street                             Maryland      Manor Park      Seven Kings      Chadwell         Gidea         Brentwood
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Heath           Park
                                                                                                                                                                                                               105%              102%            85%                                             136%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               -3%               15%             14%             67%             120%            3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 14%             12%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               48%               44%             69%                                             53%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -12%            50%
Maidenhead         Burnham            Langley             West              Southall              West             Acton               Bond                  Farringdon     Whitechapel                        4,900             2,500           3,700                                           3,600
                                                         Dreyton                                  Ealing          Main Lane            Street                                                                                                                    3,500           2,600

                                                              Heathrow                                                                                                                                                                    Canary
   66%                125%               132%                                                        112%              120%               249%                    140%            80%                                                     Wharf                                150%      4%      65%     2,500
                                                          82% Airport  71%
   13%                4%                 -4%                                                         -6%               -2%                0%                      18%             -4%                                                     Custom
                                                           0%                    3%                                                                                                                                                       House                                116%      13%     76%     3,800
   17%                -26%               35%                                                         35%               60%                30%                     -13%            74%
                                                          43%                   100%
   2,000              2,000              1,100                                                       4,700             3,800              3,800                   4,300           6,300                                                  Woolwich                              60%       -2%     1%      4,600
                                                         3,000                  2,200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Wood                                 73%       16%     -9%     2,700

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A Catalyst                                  The 37 Crossrail stations are, and will continue
                                            to be, the focal points for new build development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     A Catalyst for Regeneration
for Change                                  in the capital                                                                                                                                                                                                           OVER SITE DEVELOPMENT                                                                                                                   REDEVELOPMENT SCHEME

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PADDINGTON                                                                                                                  MAIDENHEAD
           rossrail has been a              re-development) in Tottenham Court                                   last five years (2009-2013) were built                                                                                                                                                                    Name: Paddington Triangle

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Scheme: £150m town centre and waterway
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Type: Oversite development
           significant driver of            Road, set to re-vitalise the eastern end                             within a mile of a Crossrail station.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 regeneration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Scheme: 325,000 ft² of office and retail space                                                                              Includes: 200 flats, retail and office space
           regeneration and new             of Oxford Street.                                                    Canary Wharf alone has seen nearly                                                                                                                                                                        Status: In planning                                                                                                         Status: In planning
development. Locations close to                                                                                  2,000 new build sales within a mile
                                            Crossrail stations have also become
both existing and new Crossrail                                                                                  of the station, accounting for a
                                            the focal point of many major
stations have been the focus of                                                                                  quarter of all new homes built along
                                            regeneration projects across the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               BOND STREET                                                                                                                 SOUTHALL
efforts to stimulate development by                                                                              the route so far.
                                            route outside of Central London, an                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Name: 65 Davies Street                                                                                                      Scheme: Redevelopment of Southall Gas works
property companies, developers,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Type: Oversite development
                                            accelerant to kick start long planned                                Central London and Canary Wharf                                                                                                                                                                           Scheme: 115,000 ft² of office space
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Includes: 3,750 homes, school and retail units
Local Authorities and the Greater                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Status: In design, completion set for 2019
                                            schemes. Maidenhead, Ealing                                          account for two thirds of new                                                                                                                                                                             Status: In planning
London Authority. These groups
                                            and Southall all have notable plans                                  homes sales along the Crossrail
have been attempting to capitalise
                                            to transform the areas around the                                    route. As the scheme progresses
on the value added to the housing
                                            Crossrail stations.                                                  and large projects come out of the
market by improved transport links                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD                                                                                                        EALING BROADWAY
                                                                                                                 ground in areas such as Ealing,
into Central London and other areas         In other areas of London the stations                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Name: Dean Street                                                                                                           Scheme: Dickens Yard
                                                                                                                 Southall and Stratford we will see                                                                                                                                                                        Type: Oversite development
of employment.                              are forming the lynch pin for long                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Includes: 698 flats and 22 retail units
                                                                                                                 that provision of new homes shift                                                                                                                                                                         Scheme: 105,000 ft² of residential space                                                                                    Status: In construction, completion set for 2016
                                            running development projects,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (92 units) & 12,000 ft² retail space
Twelve major property development                                                                                further out from Central London.
                                            cementing the improvement in an                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Status: In planning
opportunities have even been                                                                                     This will be buoyed and supported
                                            area. Woolwich is a prime example,
integrated into the construction                                                                                 by the recovering market, which has
                                            although the station wasn’t included
of Crossrail. These over-site                                                                                    seen a surge of domestic demand                                                                                                                                                                           FARRINGDON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD
                                            in the original scope of the Crossrail
developments (OSDs) are mixed use                                                                                return to the London housing                                                                                                                                                                              Name: Cowcross                                                                                                              Scheme: Public realm improvements and
                                            project. An agreement with, and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            construction of 4 new mixed use blocks
opportunities and predominantly                                                                                  market. The shortage of new                                                                                                                                                                               Type: Oversite development
                                            funding from, Berkeley Homes and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Scheme: 207,000 ft² office and retail space                                                                                 Includes: 500,000 ft² of retail, office
located in Central London. OSDs are                                                                              homes and affordability pressures                                                                                                                                                                         Status: In planning                                                                                                         and residential accommodation
                                            the Royal Borough of Greenwich
poised to add to the transformative                                                                              in Central London will mean many                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Status: Planning approved, construction
                                            secured the addition of Woolwich                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           set to start in 2017
effect of the new Crossrail links                                                                                of these areas, with the prospect of
                                            station to the route.
through complementary new build                                                                                  improving transport links, will be the
development. Highlights include             There has already been a significant                                 perfect place for frustrated demand                                                                                                                                                                       Where: WOOLWICH                                                                                                             Where: ABBEY WOOD
the 325,000 sq ft mixed use scheme          quantum of residential development                                   to be realised.                                                                                                                                                                                           Name: Arsenal Way                                                                                                           Scheme: Cross Quarter
above Paddington station recently           around Crossrail stations since the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Type: Oversite development                                                                                                  Includes: 200 units and 81,000 ft² supermarket
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Scheme: 398 residential units                                                                                               Status: Construction starts mid 2014
granted planning permission and three       project began in 2009. One in five                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Status: In planning
sites (along with the station               new homes sold in London in the

New Build Sales








within a Mile
of Crossrail
Stations since






                                                                                                  WEST DRAYTON



                                                                                                                                                                                                                            BOND STREET


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CANARY WHARF


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            CUSTOM HOUSE



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 FOREST GATE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ABBEY WOOD

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            MANOR PARK

                                                                                                                 HAYES AND HARLINGTON

                                                                                                                                                             WEST EALING

                                                                                                                                                                           EALING BROADWAY

                                                                                                                                                                                             ACTON MAIN LINE


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LIVERPOOL STREET


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SEVEN KINGS


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             CHADWELL HEATH


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        GIDEA PARK

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     HAROLD WOOD


                        NUMBER OF
                   NEW BUILD SALES

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Introduction                                                                                                                         Shifting Journey Times
While Crossrail construction started in 2009                                                                                         The drop in commute time to 20 minutes
the scheme has been in the works for well over 30 years                                                                              is proving a significant market driver

           he concept of an East – West rail link across London is far from new. In its current form the idea of ‘Crossrail’                   arket activity around Crossrail stations has                500 metres of a Crossrail station remained unchanged
  T        was first proposed in 1974 by a Greater London Council study into London’s railway capacity. A tunnel linking
           Paddington and Liverpool Street was proposed to relieve congestion at Central London stations. Although the
                                                                                                                                      M        soared in areas where commuting times into
                                                                                                                                               central London will fall to less than 20 minutes.
                                                                                                                                                                                                           between 2009 and 2013 despite the total number of sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                           rising 52 per cent in London over the same period. Other
proposals didn’t come to fruition, parts of the route and existing tunnels were safeguarded from future development. In 2005,        The areas close to Crossrail stations in Zones Two and                transport options and the effect of disruption around
the bill which would ultimately lead to Crossrail being built in a form that is recognisable today was introduced to Parliament.     Three have seen the largest uplift in transactions. The               Crossrail sites have been responsible for buyers avoiding
It received royal ascent in 2008 with a small number of amendments made to the route.                                                number of transactions within 500 metres of Crossrail                 these areas.
                                                                                                                                     stations in Zones Two and Three has risen 116 per cent
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Crossrail will substantially cut the journey times from a
                                        May 2009                                                                                     since Crossrail construction began in 2009 compared to a
                                                                                                                                                                                                           number of stations outside London, bringing them for
July 2005                               Crossrail construction                                         May 2018                      52 per cent increase in sales across London as a whole.
Crossrail Bill launched                 work starts                                                                                                                                                        the first time into commuter belt territory. In the suburban
                                                                                             Paddington link opens
                                                                                                                                     With the areas around most stations in Central London                 confines of Zones Six and Seven, fast non-stopping intercity
                                                                                                                                     already well connected, the number of buyers looking to               services allow Central London to be reached quickly. While
                                                                                                                                     purchase directly because of Crossrail close to stations has          transactions have grown in these areas the effect has so far
                          July 2008                                     Feb 2014                               December 2019         been more limited. In Zone One the number of sales within             been concentrated within 500 metres of stations.
                          Crossrail Act recieved                        70% of tunnelling                      Full service starts
                          royal ascent                                  work completed

                                                                                                                                     Change in transaction numbers from 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1 MILE

Method                                                                               COST OF CONSTRUCTION
                                                                                     Crossrail:                                               ZONE 1                                                            ZONES 4-5                        ZONES 6-7
                                                                                                                                              Disruption caused by                                              Employment is often local.       Commuter belt to the east home to

                                                                                                                                              construction works puts off                                       Existing journey times into      the suburban commuter. Fast trains
                                                                                                                                     100%     would be customers                                                central London prohibitive.      to Liverpool Street make commuting
This research is based on an             particular focus on the performance                                                                                                                                    Crossrail will not change this   possible.
analysis of local housing markets        over 2013. While the Crossrail Act          HS1:                                             80%
around 36 of the planned Crossrail
stations (Heathrow is excluded
                                         was passed in 2008, because of the
                                         natural lag in Land Registry market         £6.1bn                                           60%
                                                                                                                                                                             ZONES 2-3
due to a lack of housing stock).         data and the falling market in 2008,        HS2 phase 1:                                     40%
                                                                                                                                                                             Journey times cut in half.

                                                                                                                                                                             Commute cut from average of
For each station, analysis was           2009 was considered to be the best                                                           20%                                    28 minutes to 14.
conducted at radii of 500 metres         starting point for the analysis.
(0.3miles) and 1 mile, taking
                                         It is difficult to ascribe the fortunes     TRACK LENGTH:
into account access to stations,                                                                                                     -20%
                                         of a market to any one particular
and compared to local authority                                                      Crossrail: 73 miles                                        ZONE 1                  ZONE 2              ZONE 3         ZONE 4                ZONE 5              ZONE 6                ZONE 7
                                         effect particularly that of future                                                          -40%
performance to give a wider                                                          Central Line: 46 miles
                                         infrastructure like Crossrail and
context. The analysis was based
                                         over a period that has seen the             ESTIMATED CAPACITY:
on price paid transactional data
                                         market crash and recover. Through           Crossrail: 200m journeys per year
from the Land Registry and
                                         the combination of quantitative             Central Line: 260m
demographic data from the 2011
                                         analysis of market data and
and 2001 Censuses.                                                                   PEAK TRAINS PER HOUR:
                                         qualitative research into the
Where applicable, data from              behaviour of market participants            Crossrail:

local agency offices as well as          we aim to shed new light on the
interviews with local managers           impact of Crossrail with respect to                                                         The more established housing markets in West London                   London has, so far, been more extensive. Areas up to,
was incorporated to test assertions      local market performance.                   Central Line:                                   have been quicker to price in Crossrail than in East                  and beyond, a mile from Crossrail stations have seen
developed using the analysis.
Market performance was examined
between 2009 and 2013 with
                                                                                     34                                              London. Developers in West London secured large
                                                                                                                                     sites in Paddington, Acton and Ealing well in advance
                                                                                                                                     of Crossrail’s inception. The effect of Crossrail in West
                                                                                                                                                                                                           both prices and transactions grow at a rate well above the
                                                                                                                                                                                                           local authority average with buyers more confident that
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Crossrail will have significantly positive effect on the area.

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West London Summary                                                                                                     Ealing Broadway
                                                                                                                        Crossrail is right at the front of both buyers                                                                                      NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               12 MONTH      5 YEAR         HOUSEHOLDS
                                                                                                                        and sellers minds in Ealing
2013 has seen the impact of Crossrail being
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               TRANSACTION   TRANSACTION

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               GROWTH        GROWTH

felt much further along the line                                                                                                                                                                                                   66%       169%
                                                                                                                              AVG. PRICE FLAT – £345,000                      AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £849,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 27%             67%
                                                                                                                                      aling Broadway already benefits     within 500m have also picked up, doubling                                         124,082
           he Crossrail additions to the West
           of London will cut journey times
                                                    Estimate of Crossrail impact on housing
                                                    markets surrounding Crossrail stations                                 E          from rail links to Paddington and
                                                                                                                                      the Central Line across London,
                                                                                                                                      meaning journey times will only
                                                                                                                                                                          since 2009. Within the wider area, a mile
                                                                                                                                                                          around the station, price growth is much
                                                                                                                                                                          closer to the local averages, although activity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                16%             55%
           to Central London by nearly half                                                                             see a 10 minute reduction with Crossrail.         saw a significant increase in 2013.                  12 MONTH      5 YEAR
an hour on average. At peak times there will                                                                            Interest in the scheme from local sellers and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               HPI GROWTH    HPI GROWTH

                                                                                                                        investors is still very high though.              Crossrail has become a major consideration
be between four and ten Crossrail trains an                                                                                                                               with vendors in the area; anecdotal evidence
                                                    STATION                       PAST IMPACT      FUTURE IMPACT                                                                                                               7%               48%
hour. Whilst not as frequent as East London                                                                             Price growth figures show that there has          suggests many are considering putting off                                           500M
                                                                                                                        already been activity close to the station;       selling in the expectation that prices, driven
services, the fall in travel time and direct link                                                                       from 2009 the average price of properties         by development and the Crossrail link, will          6%             25%             1MILE

to central stations (removing the need for          Hanwell                                                             sold within 500m of Ealing Broadway grew          outperform the wider area. It seems Crossrail
a change at Paddington) will improve the                                                                                by 48 per cent versus an average 23 per cent      is already well on its way to being priced into      8%                             BOROUGH
                                                    West Ealing                                                         growth in the local authority. Transactions       the Ealing market.
commute to London from many stations

in West London significantly. The promise
                                                    West Drayton
of a better commute is, however, only just
starting to have noticeable impact in the           Langley
areas beyond Ealing Broadway, as Crossrail                                                                              The new line will radically transform Hanwell’s                                                        12 MONTH      5 YEAR         NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               TRANSACTION   TRANSACTION    HOUSEHOLDS
completion is still four years away                 Southall                                                            links to the rest of London                                                                            GROWTH        GROWTH

Markets around stations on the Western                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2,993
                                                    Maidenhead                                                                                                                                                                         33%          71%
section of the line saw large increases in                                                                                    AVG. PRICE FLAT – £265,000                       AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £489,000
transaction activity in 2013. Within 500                                                                                                                                                                                            22%          53%
                                                    Acton Main Line
metres of a Crossrail station the increase                                                                                           anwell stands to see the biggest     change in 2013. A mile from the station                                           124,082
is 36 per cent, well above the 12 per cent
growth recorded in West London as a
                                                    Ealing Broadway                                                       H          reduction in journey time to
                                                                                                                                     Central London of any Crossrail
                                                                                                                                     station in West London. A train
                                                                                                                                                                          Hanwell has outperformed the local average
                                                                                                                                                                          over the last 5 years, with prices standing at
                                                                                                                                                                          116 per cent of the local authority average, up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   16%           55%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               12 MONTH      5 YEAR
whole. The growth is driven by stations             Slough                                                              from Hanwell to Tottenham Court Road will         from 109 per cent in 2009.                           HPI GROWTH    HPI GROWTH
                                                                                                                        only take 15 minutes with Crossrail, half an
further along the line led by Slough and                                                                                hour less than at present.                        Hanwell has certainly benefited already
Southall, which prior to 2013 had seen very         Hayes & Harlington                                                                                                    from future Crossrail prospects, but the area        0%                   30%
                                                                                                                        Activity in Hanwell around the station has been   has also been buoyed by buyers looking
little activity.                                                                                                        high since 2009, within 500m of the station       beyond Ealing as prices rise. Hanwell

                                                    Burnham                                                             transactions increased by 71 per cent from        seems to be well poised to benefit from
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 7%                 32%       1MILE
Over 2013 prices in West London appear                                                                                  2009 and by a third over the last 12 months.      Crossrail, with increased market activity
to have followed the wider trend, with                                                                                                                                    around the station yet to translate into               8%               23%         EALING
                                                                                                                        Price growth has been subdued though.             significant house price growth.                                                     AVERAGE
prices within a mile of the station up 6 per                                                                            Prices within 500m of the station saw little
cent in 2013. Lower price growth closer             Taplow
to stations, 1 per cent within 500 metres,
is representative of stations with limited
                                                         LOW IMPACT               MEDIUM IMPACT           HIGH IMPACT
housing stock and less desirable areas
                                                                                                                        The Crossrail effect is starting to materialise
immediately surrounding stations. There                                                                                                                                                                                        12 MONTH      5 YEAR         NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                        in the Maidenhead housing market                                                                       TRANSACTION   TRANSACTION    HOUSEHOLDS
will be a large transformation in these areas        West London Key Numbers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               GROWTH        GROWTH

once regeneration schemes such as those                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,981
in Maidenhead and Southall take root.                                                                                                                                                                                              17%           20%
                                                     MEASURE		           500M		         1MILE     WEST LONDON                 AVG. PRICE FLAT – £205,500                       AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £395,500
Since 2009 West London has benefitted                TRANSACTION
                                                                      23%                         12%                                                                                                                                31%            36%
                                                     GROWTH 2013                                                                     hile Crossrail only offers a small   occupiers in the area. But there are reports of
from stronger price growth than East
London, seeing prices rise by 20 per cent
                                                                                                                                     time saving on the journey from      investors looking for property in the centre in         15%            22%
                                                                     41%                          53%                                Maidenhead to Paddington, the        anticipation of the Crossrail link. The pick-up in
from 2009. The higher value markets in               GROWTH FROM                                                                     link it provides to Central London   demand led to higher price growth within 500
                                                     2009                                                               and Canary Wharf will reduce journey times by     metres of the station over 2013 and a 17 per         12 MONTH      5 YEAR
West London have been better positioned                                                                                 eliminating multiple changes.                     cent increase in transactions.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               HPI GROWTH    HPI GROWTH

to take advantage of the recovering housing          PRICE GROWTH                                                       A Crossrail effect on prices has not yet been     The heady mix of Crossrail and the
market. It is the more expensive areas in            2013			1%                          6%        7%
                                                                                                                        seen in Maidenhead. The area closest to           redevelopment of the town centre through
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 13%          0%
                                                                                                                        the station has underperformed the local          the Kings Triangle and Chapel Arches                                                500M
the capital that have recovered fastest in           PRICE GROWTH                                                                                                                                                               6%             9%
                                                                                                                        averages since 2009 with prices within 500m       schemes will transform the centre of                                                1MILE
recent years.                                        FROM 2009		         20%		          23%       20%                   at only two thirds of the local average.          Maidenhead. Most value growth is likely
                                                                                                                                                                          to be realised after the redevelopment is             4%             14%            WINDSOR &
                                                                                                                        The prospect of Crossrail services coming to      underway and Crossrail is operational.                                              AVERAGE
                                                                                                                        Maidenhead in 2019 has yet to excite owner

LINKING HOUSING MARKETS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CROSSRAIL
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East London Summary                                                                                                  Stratford
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12 MONTH
                                                                                                                     There’s more to talk about than just Crossrail                                                           TRANSACTION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             TRANSACTION    NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              GROWTH         GROWTH         HOUSEHOLDS

2013 was the year East Enders                                                                                                                                                                                                                 284%
                                                                                                                          AVG. PRICE FLAT – £250,000                         AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £350,000
discovered Crossrail                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        23,179
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                37%               85%
                                                                                                                                   he impact of Crossrail on local       capacity and enhancing Stratford’s status
           013 was the year Crossrail
                                                  Estimate of Crossrail impact on housing markets                       T          housing markets in Stratford
                                                                                                                                   is yet to be felt, and is likely to
                                                                                                                                                                         as a transport hub, will have little impact on
                                                                                                                                                                         journey times. The majority of new residential
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                28%             49%

  2        began to be priced into housing
           markets across East London, the
                                                  surrounding Crossrail stations                                                   remain minimal. While Stratford is
                                                                                                                     a major transport and retail hub, the number
                                                                                                                     of households within walking distance of the
                                                                                                                                                                         development, most notably the conversion of
                                                                                                                                                                         the former Olympic Village into housing, will
                                                                                                                                                                         be served primarily by existing HS1 services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12 MONTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              HPI GROWTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             HPI GROWTH

                                                  STATION                         PAST IMPACT   FUTURE IMPACT        station is extremely limited. Given a lack of       from Stratford International which reach
primary beneficiaries being areas close to                                                                                                                                                                                     1%               43%
                                                                                                                     nearby housing, many of Stratford’s residents       Central London in seven minutes.
Crossrail stations – generally within 500                                                                            use existing closer stations.
metres. Prior to 2013, despite the high
                                                                                                                                                                         Over the last four years price growth in Stratford    2%             20%             500M
                                                  Woolwich                                                           At present four lines connect Stratford to          has been high, four times the 11% seen in
profile nature of the Crossrail project, prices                                                                      central London, the fastest of which takes          Newham over the same period. The effect of

                                                                                                                     less than 10 minutes. The introduction of           Olympic regeneration and the limited effect of                       11%
and transactions in housing markets close         Abbey Wood                                                         Crossrail, while significantly increasing           Crossrail now seem to be priced in.
to Crossrail stations performed at levels
similar to the wider local authority average      Forest Gate

in which they sit. The main beneficiaries
of Crossrail have been the areas around           Custom House
stations in Zones Two, Three and Four,
particularly where journey times into central     Stratford                                                          All aboard for Woolwich                                                                                                                NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12 MONTH       5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              TRANSACTION    TRANSACTION    HOUSEHOLDS
London will fall below 20 minutes.                                                                                                                                                                                            GROWTH         GROWTH

For many emerging locations, price and
                                                  Canary Wharf
                                                                                                                          AVG. PRICE FLAT – £250,000                         AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £300,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1%              413%
transaction growth has so far been limited        Brentwood
to areas immediately around Crossrail                                                                                             he regeneration of Woolwich            Despite price rises over the last 12 months,          29%              113%
stations with market activity focussed            Shenfield
                                                                                                                       T          has been taking place for a            much of Crossrail’s impact is yet to be felt.                                      101,045
on a street by street basis within a mile
                                                                                                                                  number of years. Most recently,        Less than a third of the 4,600 households
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4%              51%
                                                                                                                                  the extension of the Docklands         within 500m of Woolwich Crossrail station live
of Crossrail stations. Abbey Wood and             Manor Park                                                         Light Railway opened in 2009 and the first          in privately owned or rented accommodation;
Forest Gate are both examples where the                                                                              phase of the Royal Arsenal development was          the majority renting from the Local Authority.       12 MONTH       5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              HPI GROWTH     HPI GROWTH
                                                  Illford                                                            completed in 2010. The original Crossrail           The impact of regeneration in Woolwich has
impact of Crossrail is being felt close to                                                                           route did not include a station at Woolwich         been to expand considerably the amount of
stations, yet less than a mile away housing                                                                          however funding from Berkley Homes meant            privately owned housing stock in the area and        -2%             6%
                                                  Maryland                                                           one was subsequently added. Significant             with it the number of transactions.
markets remain unchanged. Areas                                                                                                                                                                                                                               500M
                                                                                                                     regeneration elsewhere in the area and                                                                   11%            20%
surrounding more established housing              Gidea Park		                                                       uncertainty about the Crossrail route has                                                                                                1MILE
                                                                                                                     meant that it has not been until 2013 that the
markets such as Stratford and Canary                                                                                 impact of Crossrail has begun to be felt on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8%            16%              GREENWICH
Wharf have seen Crossrail kindle stronger         Harold Wood                                                        house prices.
transaction and house price growth further
away from stations.                               Romford

Over the last 12 months prices in the areas       Goodmayes                                                          Abbey Wood
500 metres around Crossrail stations in
East London grew 11 per cent. This figure         Seven Kings                                                        Times are changing at the end of the line                                                                12 MONTH       5 YEAR         NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              TRANSACTION    TRANSACTION    HOUSEHOLDS
is higher than East London house price                                                                                                                                                                                        GROWTH         GROWTH

growth as a whole, and particularly notable       Chadwell Heath
                                                                                                                          AVG. PRICE FLAT – £150,000                         AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £270,000
as it has occurred in areas which have                                                                                                                                                                                          -9%           -7%
traditionally seen below average price
                                                            LOW IMPACT         MEDIUM IMPACT           HIGH IMPACT
growth. However, the increase in price and                                                                                         he housing market in Abbey            2013 was the year Crossrail began to be                4%                 35%
transactions remains limited to the areas
close to Crossrail stations particularly
                                                    East London Key Numbers                                            T           Wood can be divided into two
                                                                                                                                   segments. North of the railway
                                                                                                                                   is Thamesmead, London’s
                                                                                                                                                                         priced into the housing market in Abbey
                                                                                                                                                                         Wood. While there has been considerable
                                                                                                                                                                         local coverage of Crossrail, before 2012 there
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4%                   51%
                                                    MEASURE		            500M		        1 MILE   EAST LONDON          second largest public housing development.          had yet to be an impact on house prices.
beyond of Zone Three. A mile away,                                                                                   Regeneration schemes, with the exception            Despite strong price growth over the last            12 MONTH       5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              HPI GROWTH     HPI GROWTH
average prices across East London rose              TRANSACTION                                                      of West Thamesmead, have tended to be               12 months, prices in Abbey Wood remain
just five per cent over the same period.            GROWTH 2013          30%           27%      18%                  small scale. South of the railway is the Bostall    well below the Greenwich average. Given
                                                                                                                     Estate built in 1900 by the Co-operative            Crossrail will cut journey times into Tottenham         16%            17%
                                                    TRANSACTION                                                      movement. Over the last five years, the             Court Road from 46 to 23 minutes and the
                                                    GROWTH FROM 2009     58%           46%      55%                  impact of Crossrail has been larger on the          high frequency of services, the area still looks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                6%             10%
                                                                                                                     latter than the former. In the longer term          competitively priced in comparison to similar                                        1MILE
                                                    PRICE GROWTH 2013    9%            5%       7%                   however, Crossrail will aid in the regeneration     parts of London.
                                                                                                                     of Thamesmead.                                                                                             8%             16%            GREENWICH
                                                    PRICES GROWTH 2009 10%             13%      13%

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Central London Summary                                                                                           Bond Street
                                                                                                                 The housing market around Bond Street stands little                                                  12 MONTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    TRANSACTION    NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GROWTH        GROWTH         HOUSEHOLDS
                                                                                                                 to gain from Crossrail in the short term
Wider market forces currently dwarf
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (2013)        (2009-2013)

Crossrail in Central London                                                                                           AVG. PRICE FLAT – £1,244,000                     AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £3,742,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30%         -4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       9%            11%
                                                                                                                              ond Street station already has       The area closest to the station has
         he driving narrative behind
         the prime markets in Central
                                                 STATION                      PAST IMPACT    FUTURE IMPACT
                                                                                                                    B         very good underground links
                                                                                                                              to the rest of London. The
                                                                                                                              Jubilee line and Central lines
                                                                                                                                                                   underperformed in both activity and price
                                                                                                                                                                   growth. This could be attributed in part to the
                                                                                                                                                                   development work around the station causing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       7%             21%

         London is a familiar one. Since                                                                         run through the station while the Bakerloo        disruption. Although transactions grew by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12 MONTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      HPI GROWTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    HPI GROWTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (2013)        (2009-2013)
the downturn in 2008 the market has been         Whitechapel                                                     line at Oxford Circus and Piccadilly and          30 per cent within 500 metres in the station in
propelled forward by an influx of foreign                                                                        Victoria Lines at Green Park are within           2013 they are still below 2009 levels.
                                                                                                                 walking distance. While Bond Street will                                                              0%               38%
investment, leading these housing markets        Tottenham CR                                                    undoubtedly benefit from increased traffic to     The strong price performance within a mile                                        500M
                                                                                                                                                                   of the station is driven by market forces in
to recover before anywhere else in the UK.                                                                       and from the station, the increase in travel
                                                                                                                                                                   Prime Central London rather than impact of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18%                 79%      1MILE
                                                                                                                 times or connectivity for residents is unlikely
In Prime Central London prices now stand         Farringdon                                                      to be tangible enough to have a significant       Crossrail. A mile radius around Bond Street

                                                                                                                 impact on purchasing decisions.                   station includes Mayfair, Marylebone, Soho,         12%
40 per cent above peak levels. High prices                                                                                                                         St James and the South end of Regent’s Park.
in Prime Central London, a lack of stock and     Paddington
steady increases in UK buyers in the wider
Central London market have seen growth           Liverpool St.                                                   Farringdon
shift beyond Mayfair, Belgravia and Chelsea
in 2013. The recovery in the economy has         Bond St.                                                        A major new transport hub, but everybody already knows that                                          12 MONTH      5 YEAR         NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      TRANSACTION   TRANSACTION    HOUSEHOLDS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GROWTH        GROWTH
stimulated huge demand in areas such as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (2013)        (2009-2013)

Fulham, Islington and Hackney.                                                                                         AVG. PRICE FLAT – £850,000                     AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £2,000,000
                                                      LOW IMPACT             MEDIUM IMPACT         HIGH IMPACT                                                                                                          -13%          -15%
In this environment it is very hard to                                                                                                                                                                                                             40,100
divorce the impact of the wider market                                                                                       arringdon, the Crossrail poster       a collapse in the number of transactions.            12%            20%
in Central London from that of Crossrail.
Price growth is, however, in line with the
                                                   Central London Key Numbers
                                                                                                                    F        child, has been consistently
                                                                                                                             promoted as one of the areas
                                                                                                                             set to benefit the most. An East
                                                                                                                                                                   The number of sales within 500m of the
                                                                                                                                                                   Farringdon station has fallen 15 per cent from
                                                                                                                                                                   2009, itself the lowest year on record since
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -6%            16%
                                                                                                                 – West Crossrail service will supplement an       1995. The impact in the short to medium term
wider area over the last 12 months and             MEASURE		         500M		         1MILE    CENTRAL LONDON      upgraded North – South Thameslink meaning         has been a degree of uplift in house prices.       12 MONTH      5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      HPI GROWTH    HPI GROWTH
below wider averages since 2009. This                                                                            Farringdon will become exceedingly well           Post 2018, once Crossrail is operational,          (2013)        (2009-2013)

growth pattern implies that the pricing in                                                                       connected not only to the rest of London but      the number of sellers may increase as
                                                   TRANSACTION 		     7%		 11%               12%                 also to much of the South East.                   households look to realise house price gains.        18%               48%
these areas is actually defined by wider           GROWTH 2013                                                                                                     A substantial number of sellers coming to
                                                                                                                 With Crossrail projected by many to have          the market could certainly slow down what
forces, a concept supported by lower                                                                             a significant impact on residential prices in                                                          15%                53%
                                                   TRANSACTION		 12%		27%                    46%                                                                   would otherwise be a steady growth in value                                       1MILE
transaction growth.                                                                                              Farringdon, many would-be sellers have            in the area.
                                                   GROWTH FROM 2009
                                                                                                                 delayed the decision. The result has been                                                             12%               48%         ISLINGTON
It makes sense for housing markets to
                                                   PRICE GROWTH 2013		 16%          15%      12%
behave in this manner, as many of these
stations will be used by those travelling from
                                                   PRICE GROWTH
other parts of London for work, shopping           FROM 2009         44%		56%                46%
or leisure and many of the Central London
stations are already very well connected.
                                                                                                                 The market in Whitechapel is in full swing with Crossrail                                            12 MONTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   NUMBER OF
                                                                                                                 driving it along                                                                                     GROWTH        GROWTH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (2013)        (2009-2013)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           74%             105%
                                                                                                                       AVG. PRICE FLAT – £450,000                      AVG. PRICE HOUSE - £850,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18%               83%
                                                                                                                              itting on the fringe of the city     Housing markets in the 500 metres area                                          101,257
                                                                                                                    S         less than 3.5 miles from Charing
                                                                                                                              Cross, Whitechapel represents
                                                                                                                              Crossrail’s dividing point. From
                                                                                                                                                                   surrounding Whitechapel station are diverse.
                                                                                                                                                                   One in two properties are owned by a Local
                                                                                                                                                                   Authority or Housing Association. Despite a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12 MONTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    5 YEAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      HPI GROWTH    HPI GROWTH
                                                                                                                 Whitechapel trains head North East to             significant presence by a number of national       (2013)        (2009-2013)
                                                                                                                 Shenfield and South East to Abbey Wood. As        house builders, new property still only accounts
                                                                                                                 a result, Whitechapel will be the only station    for only 10 per cent of sales. Whitechapel has
                                                                                                                 outside Zone One serviced by 24 trains            however seen the cost of a new build property        9%              30%
                                                                                                                 per hour. Despite Whitechapel’s relatively        rise at the fastest rate in London. Average new                                   500M
                                                                                                                 central location it is poorly connected both      build prices increased 50 per cent over the          8%             28%           1MILE
                                                                                                                 westwards to Central London and eastwards         last 12 months, as house builders increasingly
                                                                                                                 to Canary Wharf.                                  target the top end of the market.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       18%           HAMLETS

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