Residential Development Index - Measuring the Activity of Victoria's Residential Development Industry - UDIA Victoria

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Residential
                                       Development
                                       Index
                                       Measuring the Activity
                                       of Victoria’s Residential
                                       Development Industry
                                       March 2018

RDI Major Sponsor:   RDI Research Partners:
Table of Contents

Introduction
Executive Summary                                                                            3
What is the Residential Development Index?                                                   4
Current Residential Development Index (RDI) Rating                                           5
Risks to Industry                                                                            6
Demand and Supply Gap
Current Demand and Supply Gap                                                                8
Future Dwelling Need – Alternative Scenario                                                  10
Other Market Indicators – Changing Household Typologies                                      11
Trends By Region
Trends in Victoria and Melbourne                                                             13
Inner Melbourne                                                                              14
Middle Melbourne                                                                             15
Outer Ring of Melbourne                                                                      16
Melbourne Growth Areas                                                                       17
Methodology and Assumptions
Data Sources and Glossary                                                                    19
Geographical Study Areas                                                                     20
Estimating the Demand and Supply Gap                                                         21

Important Notice or Disclaimer
The contents of this report are based on secondary research using a variety of sources, which are
believed to be reliable. The information obtained from such sources, however, was not independently
verified and was relied upon in performing the analysis. Accordingly, no representation or warranty
is provided regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. The
information contained in this report includes certain forecasts that are based on certain assumptions
and qualifications which are outlined in this report. Readers are cautioned that the actual results are
often different than as forecasted, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as
expected, and those differences may be material. UDIA (including its research partners) disclaim any
responsibility whatsoever in relation to the contents of this report and have no obligations to provide
any updates or corrections to the recipient of this report. The key points and conclusions contained in
this report represent UDIA views. No reliance for whatsoever purpose should be placed on any of the
contents of this report. The readers are cautioned not to take any actions or decisions based on the
contents of this report, should they do that it will be at their own risk.

  2 | Residential Development Index
Executive Summary

This interim update provides the Residential Development Index (RDI)
rating for June 2017 and a forecast of the June 2018 rating based on
available data as at 15 December 2017.

The RDI uses a unique model to assess the health of Victoria’s residential development industry and
measure its activity on an ongoing basis. The research examines the dynamics impacting the industry,
including economic conditions, population growth, development activity, trend data, regulatory changes
and policy implications. These industry activity fundamentals inform the RDI, which determines whether
the industry is operating in a strong, moderate or weak market, relative to recent and long history.

    RDI: Key Findings
    •   The RDI at June 2017 is 111.1 and is expected to moderate to 110.5 by June 2018 based on
        conservative employment and population forecasts relative to current trends. An RDI of
        above 102 depicts a market that is either operating in line with medium term trends or
        relative strength.
    •   In 2031 we will have at least 665,000 more people than what was forecast for that year a
        decade ago.
    •   Not all building approvals turn into new housing supply. Between 2011 and 2016, there
        was an average net yield of 7.8 dwellings per 10 building approvals. In relation to occupied
        dwellings, the net yield was even lower at 6.7 dwellings per 10 building approvals.
    •   2017/18 is looking like a strong year with both townhouse and house building activity
        continuing to grow, and apartment activity recovering from the slowdown seen in 2016/17.
    •   It is estimated that there has been an undersupply of dwellings in Victoria of between
        3,800 and 4,700 per annum across the 2015/16 and 2016/17 financial years. In 2017/18,
        increased building activity will help us reduce the gap and achieve a healthier balance
        between supply and demand. However, if current high levels of building activity are not
        sustained, the supply and demand gap will widen.
    •   Household size remains stagnant despite Government forecasts that sizes would reduce.
        This is likely due to affordability constraints influencing how people are living, for example
        people choosing to live with their parents for longer and a broadening range of people
        moving into shared households rather than living alone.
    •   Factors contributing to the demand for new housing are strong with employment growth
        at 4% over the year to June 2017 and predicted to moderate to 3% over the year to June
        2018; and population growth at 2.3% moderating to 2% over the year to June 2018.
    •   Risks to the residential development industry and the housing market include subdued
        wage growth which could curb demand, and strong competition for labour from major
        infrastructure projects in Victoria and interstate.

  3 | Residential Development Index
What is the Residential Development Index?

The Residential Development Index (RDI) has been developed by EY using three underlying inputs
including demand, capacity to purchase and supply relative to demand. Based on historical data, an RDI
of above 102 depicts a market that is either operating in line with medium term trends or relative strength.

      Demand
       40%
                          Purchasing power                                               RDI =
                               40%                                                  weighted average
                                                                                    of 3 components

                                                         Supply
                                                        20%

    RDI scores
    Above 106      =     strong market
    102 to 105     =     moderate market
    Below 102      =     weak market

RDI Input

Demand (weighted at 40%)                              Supply (weighted at 20%)
• Considers population growth in Victoria             • Considers building approvals relative to
• Calculated as annual % growth over 12 months           estimated household formation to indicate
  to June as an index                                    relative levels of supply.
•   Index = [annual % change + 1] x 100.              • Household formation is calculated as
                                                         [population growth / the assumed average
Purchasing power (weighted at 40%)                       household size in Victoria at the time RDI is
• Considers employment growth in Victoria                measured].
• Calculated as annual % growth over 12 months        • This component is weighted at 20% of
   to June as an index                                   the overall index due to the higher level of
                                                         variability in supply that has been observed
•   Index = [annual % change + 1] x 100.
                                                         over time.

    4 | Residential Development Index
Current Residential Development Index
(RDI) Rating

Making sense of the RDI rating

Based on the last ten years of analysis between June 2007 and June 2017:

1.   The index has moderated in June 2017
     at 111.1 down from 112.1 in June 2016,                       CURRENT RDI RATING = 111.1
     however it is still at historical highs and
     above the ten year average of 107.1.
2. The index was at its lowest point in                                        Residential Development Index (RDI)
                                                             115.0
     June 2007 (101.6) and June 2009                                                                                                                                                                            Forecast
                                                             110.0
     (101.9) when supply, purchasing power                   105.0
     and demand was all relatively weak                      100.0
                                                   INDEX

     compared to averages over the period.                       95.0
3. Utilising forecasted input data for                           90.0

     June 2018, the RDI is expected to be                        85.0
                                                                 80.0
     110.5. This moderate decline is based
                                                                           Jun 2007

                                                                                          Jun 2008

                                                                                                        Jun 2009

                                                                                                                     Jun 2010

                                                                                                                                 Jun 2011

                                                                                                                                             Jun 2012

                                                                                                                                                          Jun 2013

                                                                                                                                                                        Jun 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun 2019
     on expectations of slight declines in
     population and employment growth
     relative to current trends.
4. The index has also been forecasted to
                                                                                                         RDI and its components
     June 2019. Demand (population) and                      115.0                                                                                                                                        Forecast 180.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   160.0
     purchasing power (employment) were                      110.0                                                                                                                                                 140.0
                                                   DEMND INDEX

     extrapolated based on growth forecasts                                                                                                                                                                        120.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                SUPPLY
                                                            105.0                                                                                                                                                  100.0
     from the State Budget 2017-18 Update.                                                                                                                                                                         80.0
                                                            100.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   60.0
5. Our RDI forecast for June 2019                                                                                                                                                                                  40.0
                                                                 95.0
     indicates that the residential                                                                                                                                                                                20.0
                                                                 90.0                                                                                                                                              0.0
     development market is expected to
                                                                    Jun 2007

                                                                               Jun 2008

                                                                                             Jun 2009

                                                                                                          Jun 2010

                                                                                                                      Jun 2011

                                                                                                                                 Jun 2012
                                                                                                                                            Jun 2013

                                                                                                                                                        Jun 2014

                                                                                                                                                                     Jun 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun 2019

     continue at relatively strong levels.
     However, risks to the overall residential
                                                                                      Demand                                                                                                  Purchasing power
     market include:
                                                                                      Index of residential activity                                                                           Supply
»»   Strong demand for labour from
     competing infrastructure projects;
»»   Weak wage growth from buyers of                  Each input is calculated on an annual basis at a point
     properties; and                                  in time subject to the availability of data. It should be
»»   Changes in the tax and regulatory                noted that employment and building approvals data
     environment.                                     is available with limited lags whereas estimates of
                                                      population have approximately a 6 month lag.

     5 | Residential Development Index
Risks to Industry

Existing and emerging risks to the Victorian urban development
industry

•   Inaccurate population data
    Planning for schools, housing, services, and related infrastructure must be based on an accurate
    understanding of population growth. But there’s been ongoing discrepancies between what
    has been forecast, what we’ve planned for and what we’re actually delivering when it comes to
    population growth and the amount of new housing and infrastructure required to accommodate the
    growth.

    In 2031 we will have at least 665,000 more people than what was forecast for that year a decade
    ago. This is a major issue considering population forecasts drive critical policy direction and
    decisions.

•   Competition for materials and skilled labour
    One emerging challenge is the strong competition for skilled labour and materials. The residential
    development industry is, and will continue to, compete against major infrastructure projects taking
    place in Victoria and interstate for many of the same people and materials.

•   Unclear urban renewal pipeline
    Victoria needs more housing and more housing options located in well-serviced areas. While
    we have prime urban renewal opportunities available to us, Fishermans Bend for example, clear
    direction on how industry should and can proceed to realise these opportunities has not been
    provided.

•   Production capacity challenges for new housing in Melbourne’s growth corridors
    There remains a critical issue with the constraints industry faces in bringing sites to market after
    they receive a planning permit. There is a serious need to implement process improvements and
    remove unnecessary constraints associated with releasing new, developable lots. The Victorian
    Government has begun addressing this issue through its Streamlining for Growth and Smart
    Planning programs, but a great deal more work needs to be done before this ongoing risk is
    adequately mitigated.

    6 | Residential Development Index
Demand & Supply Gap

          In this section
          Current Demand and Supply Gap                             8
          Future Dwelling Need – Alternative Scenario               10
          Other Market Indicators – Changing Household Typologies   11

7 | Residential Development Index
Current Demand and Supply Gap

The RDI estimates the housing demand/supply gap for Victoria and
regions including Melbourne statistical divisions and regional Victoria.

What does the RDI tell us about demand and supply right now?
•   In 2017/18, if we can sustain current high levels of building activity, we will achieve a healthy balance
    between supply and demand for the financial year, and may even yield a small surplus that would
    help address previous years’ undersupply.
•   However, the undersupply figure is much higher when we consider the actual supply of dwellings
    available for permanent occupation. On this measure, it is projected that an undersupply of up to
    3,600 dwellings could occur in FY17/18.

What does the RDI tell us about the past three years?
•   There has been a moderate undersupply in Victoria of between 3,800 and 4,700 dwellings in the
    last two financial years. This means that despite current high levels of building activity, we are still
    facing a demand/supply gap of approximately 1,236 dwellings when considering supply vs. demand
    over the past three years.
•   The undersupply figure over three years is much higher when we consider the actual supply of
    dwellings available for permanent occupation. We consider dwellings available for permanent
    occupation if they are available to live in by owner-occupiers or renters. For example, holiday
    houses are not considered available for permanent occupation. On this measure, it is projected
    that Victoria is facing an undersupply of approximately 8,946 dwellings available for occupation in
    FY17/18.

Sensitivity tests
•   If the average household size across Victoria declines in FY 2017/18 and in later years, the
    undersupply could be even higher than initially estimated.

Note
•   The estimates are theoretical in nature and based on a series of assumed parameters including:
    »» An average household size of 2.6 people
    »» Actual and extrapolated building approvals data

    8 | Residential Development Index
Abbreviations
DBA yield        Estimated yield of dwellings to building approvals (used to forecast supply)
DSG              Demand/supply gap

Current estimates of the demand/supply gap in Victoria

Year end                                                                FY15/16        FY16/17       FY17/18*     Average

Supply estimate

Building approvals                                                      67,187         65,088        78,000

Assumed DBA yield total                                                 0.78           0.78          0.78

Assumed DBA yield dwellings available for occupation                    0.67           0.67          0.67

Estimated net supply of total dwellings                                 52,406         50,769        60,840

Estimated supply of dwellings available for occupation                  45,015         43,609        52,260

Demand estimate
Population growth                                                       146,281        144,357       145,443

Household size                                                          2.6            2.6           2.6

Household growth                                                        56,262         55,522        55,940

DSG all dwellings                                                       -3,856         -4,753        4,900        -1,236

DSG dwellings available to occupy                                       -11,247        -11,913       -3,680       -8,946

* Forecast for FY17/18 for building approvals based on actual data to
November 2017 and extrapolated remaining 7 months to June 2018.
Source: ABS building approvals (8731.0) and ABS demographic
statistics (3101.0)
                                                                                    There has been a moderate
                                                                                     undersupply in Victoria of
                                                                                between 3,800 and 4,700 dwellings
                                                                              in the last two financial years. Therefore,
                                                                               despite current high levels of building
                                                                               activity, we are still facing a demand/
                                                                                 supply gap of approximately 1,236
                                                                               dwellings when considering supply vs.
                                                                                 demand over the past three years.

  9 | Residential Development Index
Future Dwelling Need – Alternative Scenario
This estimate of future average annual                                 The analysis is depicted in the table and figure on
dwelling need in Victoria and Melbourne is                             the right and confirms the following under the above
for the three years from FY 2018/19 to FY                              scenario:
2020/21 and a longer term forecast from FY                             •   Between FY 2018/19 and FY 2020/21 total building
2021/22 to FY 2030/31.                                                     approvals will need to average 75,000 per annum to
                                                                           supply an adequate volume of net additional supply.
The analysis allows for consideration of                               •   In the 10 year period commencing FY 2021/22,
the scale of dwelling production required                                  total dwelling supply will need to be maintained at
if Victorian population growth does not                                    around 75,000 per annum for a healthy dwelling
decline and household sizes decline as per                                 demand/supply balance.
existing forecasts.
                                                                       A failure to accommodate this volume of dwelling
Forecasts are prepared on alternative                                  production could have a number of consequences
assumptions including:                                                 including:
•             Current population growth estimates                      •   A reversal in the expected decline in household sizes
              released by the State Government; and                        (see next slide for more details and impacts);
•             Alternative projections prepared                         •   Consistent increases in dwelling prices beyond
              by EY that reflect a scenario of                             expectations – particularly for detached dwellings;
              population growth being maintained at                        and
              current levels until FY 2020/21 with a                   •   An erosion in Victoria’s; and in particular
              moderation to 1.8% per annum beyond.                         Melbourne’s; competitiveness as a place to migrate
                                                                           to or live in.

                                                         Victoria forecast of future dwelling needs
              225,000
              205,000
              185,000
              165,000
Per annum #

              145,000
              125,000
              105,000
               85,000
               65,000
               45,000
               25,000
                                FY16/17               FY17/18*                3 yr avg to               10 yr avg to                20 yr avg to
                                                                               FY20/21                   FY30/31                     FY50/51
                        Population        Households & Dwelling need          Building Approval requirement            Building Approval actual

 Year end                                                  FY16/17         FY17/18*         3yr avg to        10yr avg to         20yr avg to
 			                                                                                        FY20/21           FY 30/31            FY50/51

 Popolation growth                                         144,357         145,443          152,236           151,670             205,129
 Households & dwelling need                                55,522          55,940           58,552            58,335              78,896
 Building approval required                                71,182          71,717           75,067            74,788              98,620
 Building approval actual and forecast                     65,088          78,000
Source: ABS data and EY forecasts / extrapolation.

    10 | Residential Development Index
Other Market Indicators –
   Changing Household Typologies

   The impact of under supply on households sizes and living choices

   According to the Victorian Government’s demographic forecasts, average household sizes are expected
   to fall due to growing numbers of single person households and increasing volumes of couples without
   children. State Government’s current Victoria in Future (VIF) forecasts assume that average household
   sizes will decline from around 2.5 to 2.41 between 2016 and 2051.

   The reality is that between 2006 and 2016, the average household size has remained relatively static in
   Victoria, at approximately 2.6 persons per household. There are a number of possible drivers of this:

   •               The volume of group households is increasing, essentially made up of single persons renting as a
                   group. Between 2006 and 2016 group households increased from 3.8% to 4.3% of all households in
                   Victoria;
   •               The utilisation of dwellings appears to be rising with the average persons per available bedroom
                   increasing from 0.8 to 0.9 between 2011 and 2016; and
   •               Young adults are becoming increasingly likely to stay at home with their parents until they are in
                   their late twenties and early thirties.

                                                                                                   A static
                                                                                               household size;
                                                                                            when all demographic
                                                                                          forecasts point to reduced
                                                                                   household sizes; is an indicator of
                                                                                  a lack of supply of housing overall.
                                               Household size                     It indicates that living arrangements
                 2.7                                                                      are being influenced by a

                 2.6
                                                                                      limited supply of affordable
                                                                                              accommodation.
                 2.6
Household size

                 2.5

                 2.5

                 2.4

                 2.4

                 2.3
                        2006       2011      2016         2021      2031   2041    2051

   Source: Victoria in Future, 2016            Forecast    Actual

                 11 | Residential Development Index
Trends by Region

          In this section
          Trends in Victoria and Melbourne   13
          Inner Melbourne                    14
          Middle Melbourne                   15
          Outer Ring of Melbourne            16
          Melbourne Growth Areas             17

12 | Residential Development Index
Trends in Victoria and Melbourne

       This section provides building approval trends by region, highlighting
       current hot spots and weakening Local Government Areas (LGAs).

       Melbourne Statistical Divisions (SD)
       • Overall, building approvals in Melbourne are currently1 20% above the same period in FY 2016/17
          and are on track to exceed the FY 2015/16 outcome if trends remain the same for the balance of the
          year.
       • Townhouse building approvals are also above the same period in FY 2016/17. A total of 5,699
          building approvals have been issued compared to 4,069 in the previous year. This represents growth
          of 40% year on year compared to FY16/17.
       • Apartment building approvals have recovered strongly in the first five months of the year with
          a total of 10,309 building approvals issued compared to 7,894 in the same period last year. This
          represents growth of 30% year on year compared to FY 2016/17.
       • In the three years of FY 2015/16 to FY2017/18, house building approvals have continued growing at a
          steady compound annual growth rate of 2.92% to a total of 25,596 by     FY 2017/18.
                                                                               Building approvals - Melbourne SD
       • Total building approvals for Melbourne statistical divisions
                                                              30,000
                                                                      in FY 2017/18 are expected to grow by
          circa 21% to 62,985 from 52,076 in FY 2016/17.
                                                                                                                   25,000
                                                                                       Building Approvals Volume

       Regional Victoria                                       20,000

                                                                        1
       • Overall, building approvals in regional Victoria are currently
                                                               15,000     14% above the same period in FY
          2016/17 and are on track to exceed the FY 2015/16 outcome if trends remain the same for the
                                                               10,000
          balance of the year.
       • House building approvals have recovered strongly in5,000the first five months of the year with a total
          of 12,885 building approvals issued compared to 11,677 0in the same previous year period. This
                                                                                                                            Houses          Townhouses            Apartments
                              represents a growth of 10% compared to FY 2016/17.
                                                                                                                              FY15/16    FY16/17     FY17/18* (projection)

                                               Building approvals - Melbourne SD                                                     Building approvals - Regional VIC
                            30,000                                                                                 14,000

                            25,000                                                                                 12,000
Building Approvals Volume

                                                                                       Building Approvals Volume

                                                                                                                   10,000
                            20,000
                                                                                                                    8,000
                            15,000
                                                                                                                    6,000
                            10,000
                                                                                                                    4,000
                             5,000
                                                                                                                    2,000

                                0                                                                                      0
                                      Houses          Townhouses          Apartments                                        Houses          Townhouses             Apartments
                                        FY15/16    FY16/17   FY17/18* (projection)
                                                                                                                               FY15/16     FY16/17     FY17/18* (projection)

       * EY extrapolated building approval data for remaining 7 months to June 2018 by using the growth rate achieved in the 5 months
                              Building approvals - Regional VIC
       to November 2017 with the same period previous year.
          14,000
       1 Comparison  between 5 months to November 2017 and 5 months to November 2016
       Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2018
                            12,000
Building Approvals Volume

                            10,000

                             8,000

                             6,000
                            13
                             4,000| Residential Development Index

                             2,000
Inner Melbourne
    Melbourne’s inner ring exhibited a mix of trends in the first five months
    of the FY 2017/18.

    •                 Total building approvals for the inner ring region of Melbourne are significantly above the same
                      levels in FY 2016/17.
    •                 Apartment building approvals reached 5,993 over the first five months of the year which is above
                      trends for the same period in FY 2016/17.
    •                 Based on current trends, we expect total building approvals for apartments in FY 2017/18 could
                      reach more than 12,800 which is 9.4% higher than the FY 2015/16 outcome and well above the level
                      of 9,556 achieved in FY 2016/17.

    Hot spots
    • From a location perspective, the City of Yarra and the City of Melbourne are particularly strong.
    • The City of Melbourne has had strong building approvals in all traditional locations including
       Southbank, Docklands and the CBD.                                         Building approvals - Inner Ring
                                                               16,000
    • In the City of Yarra a total of 1,278 building approvals have been issued for apartment projects over
                                                               14,000
       4 storeys. This compares to total approvals in FY 2016/17    of 1,114 in the same category. Key hot spots
                                                               12,000
       include Abbotsford and Richmond.                        10,000
                                                                                       Building approvals

                                                                                                            8,000
                                                                                                            6,000
    Weak spots
                                                                 4,000
    • Maribyrnong and the City of Port Phillip are not doing 2,000so well.
    • In Maribyrnong, which includes Footscray, approvals for larger  0       apartment projects have declined
      from 1,282 in FY 2015/16 to only 47 units in the five months to November FY15/16      2017.FY16/17             FY17/18*
                                                                                                                     (forecast)
    • In the City of Port Phillip, approvals for four storey plus apartments have declined from 1,594 in FY
                                                               Flats units or apartments - Total including those attached to a house
      2015/16 to just 92 over the five months to NovemberSemi-detached,
                                                                2017.           row or terrace houses, townhouses - Total
                                                                                                      Houses

                                       Building approvals - Inner Ring                                                   Market share growth - Inner ring
                     16,000
                     14,000                                                                                  Yarra (C)
                     12,000
                     10,000                                                              Stonnington (C)
Building approvals

                      8,000
                      6,000                                                                     Port Phillip (C)
                      4,000
                      2,000
                                                                                                 Melbourne (C)
                         0
                                   FY15/16       FY16/17            FY17/18*
                                                                    (forecast)         Maribyrnong (C)
               Flats units or apartments - Total including those attached to a house
               Semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses - Total                                              -20%     -10%           0%        10%         20%
               Houses                                                                                                       Growth in market share of region
    Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2018                                                                            1 year growth        2 years growth

                                    Market share growth - Inner ring

                       Yarra (C)

  Stonnington (C)

                14 | Residential Development Index
         Port Phillip (C)

          Melbourne (C)
Middle Melbourne
Melbourne’s middle ring exhibited a mix of trends in the first five
months of the FY17/18.

•                    Total building approvals for the middle ring region of Melbourne reached 8,336 over the five months to
                     November 17 relative to a full year result in FY 2016/17 of 17,042. On this basis we expect building approvals in
                     the middle ring to potentially exceed the outcome in FY 2016/17 and reach levels experienced in FY 2015/16.
•                    Apartment building approvals reached 3,511 over the first five months of the year which is above trends for the
                     same period in FY 2016/17.
•                    Semi-detached townhouse development is also particularly strong with 3,123 approvals to November 2017
                     compared to a full year outcome of 5,700 units in FY 2016/17.

Hot spots
•                    Most local government areas (LGAs) in the middle region are performing well and increasing their share of
                     Melbourne’s overall housing market, however results are mixed by dwelling type.
•                    Kingston, Glen Eira and Monash continue to deliver high volumes of apartment and townhouse development.
•                    Apartment development hotspots include Clayton around Monash University, the Cheltenham Highett corridor
                                                                                                                                   Building approvals - Middle Ring
                     in Kingston and the McKinnon, Bentleigh and Caulfield North areas in Glen Eira.
                                                                                                                  25,000
•                    In Kingston, these precincts are being driven by supportive residential planning controls including Activity
                     Centre Zones, Growth Zones in Glen Eira, and supportive planning policy around Caulfield Racecourse and the
                                                                                  20,000
                     Caulfield activity centre.
                                                                                                                  15,000
                                                                                             Building approvals

Weak spots                                                                                                        10,000
•                    Many of the LGA’s that experienced strong activity in FY 2014/155,000
                                                                                       and FY 2015/16 have seen activity moderate
                     over the last year.
•                                                                                        0
                     In Boroondara, apartment activity has collapsed in FY 2017/18, particularly in the Hawthorn area. To some extent,
                                                                                                                                   FY15/16             FY16/17         FY17/18*
                     this has been offset by maintaining strong levels of townhouse development.                                                                       (forecast)
•                    Other areas that have experienced a significant decline in apartment    approvals
                                                                                    Flats units          include
                                                                                                or apartments - TotalMoreland    around
                                                                                                                      including those attached to a house
                     Brunswick, Darebin around Northcote and Moonee Valley.                                       Semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses - Total
•                    Apartment activity in Whitehorse, which includes Box Hill, has Houses
                                                                                    also moderated significantly from 1,354 units in
                     FY 2015/16 to 314 over the five months to November 2017.

                                      Building approvals - Middle Ring                                                              Market share growth - Middle ring
                      25,000
                                                                                             Moonee Valley (C)
                      20,000
                                                                                                                    Monash (C)
                      15,000
Building approvals

                                                                                                                   Kingston (C)
                      10,000
                                                                                                     Hobsons Bay (C)
                       5,000
                                                                                                                   Glen Eira (C)
                           0
                                      FY15/16          FY16/17           FY17/18*                             Boroondara (C)
                                                                         (forecast)
                     Flats units or apartments - Total including those attached to a house                                     -10%               0%             10%           20%
                                                                                                                                         Growth in market share of region
                     Semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses - Total
                                                                                                                                             1 year growth   2 years growth
                     Houses
                     Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2018

                                       Market share growth - Middle ring

Moonee Valley (C)
        15 Monash
           | Residential
                  (C)    Development Index
                       Kingston (C)
Outer Ring of Melbourne

          Melbourne’s outer ring has exhibited a recovery in approvals in the first
          five months of FY 2017/18 after a moderate decline in activity in FY
          2016/17.

          •             Total building approvals for the outer ring region of Melbourne reached 2,464 over the five months
                        to November 2017 relative to a full year result in FY 2016/17 of 4,866. On this basis we expect
                        building approvals in the outer ring will exceed the 2016/17 outcome in 2017/18.
          •             Apartment building approvals reached 667 units over the first five months of the year, which is well
                        above trends for the same period in FY 2016/17.
          •             Semi-detached townhouse development is also growing strongly and expected to drive a
                        significantly higher level of dwelling commencements in the region over FY 2017/18.

          Hot spots
          •             Apartment development hotspots include the Knox and Maroondah LGA’s with Maroondah
                                                                                          Building approvals - Outer Ring
                        experiencing 371 units approved over the first five months of FY 2017/18. Most of these were in
                                                                                                            7,000
                        Ringwood.
                                                                                                            6,000
                                                                                      Building approvals

          •             Apartment activity in Manningham and Doncaster is maintaining similar trends to a year ago,
                                                                                                            5,000
                        however is down on volumes in FY 2015/16 where 683 apartments
                                                                             4,000    were approved.
                                                                                                            3,000
          Weak spots                                                                                        2,000
                                                                      1,000
          The apartment market is still maturing in many parts of Melbourne’s established outer ring so results
                                                                                                                0
          are fairly inconsistent and inconclusive.                                                                        FY15/16         FY16/17           FY17/18*
          •             The Greater Dandenong LGA has experienced a decline in apartment approvals in the first five(forecast)
                                                                             Flats a
                        months of FY 2017/18 as has Frankston which has not had    units or apartments
                                                                                     single   building - Total including
                                                                                                          permit     forthose attached to a house
                                                                                                                         an apartment
                                                                                            Semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses - Total
                        issued in this financial year.
                                                                                            Houses

                                     Building approvals - Outer Ring                                                          Market share growth - Outer ring
                      7,000
                      6,000                                                                                Nillumbik (S)
Building approvals

                      5,000
                                                                                           Maroondah (C)
                      4,000
                      3,000                                                           Manningham (C)
                      2,000
                                                                                                              Knox (C)
                      1,000
                          0                                                     Greater Dandenong (C)
                                     FY15/16        FY16/17       FY17/18*
                                                                  (forecast)                       Frankston (C)
      Flats units or apartments - Total including those attached to a house
                                                                                                                       -15%      -10%     -5%      0%       5%       10%
      Semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses - Total
                                                                                                                                 Growth in market share of region
      Houses                                                                                                                      1 year growth     2 years growth
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2018

                                         Market share growth - Outer ring

                     Nillumbik (S)

     Maroondah (C)   16 | Residential Development Index
Manningham (C)
Melbourne Growth Areas

 Melbourne’s growth areas continue to deliver increased levels of
 building approvals including over the first five months of FY 2017/18.

 •                    The volume of new houses built in Melbourne growth area LGAs equated to over 17,000 in FY 2016/17 up
                      from 10,100 in FY 2012/13. The outcome for 2016/17 is higher than the record year of 2009/10.
 •                    The result for the first five months of FY 2017/18 points to another record year with more than 8,600
                      building approvals for houses in the five months to November 2017. Note: This result includes projects in
                      established areas of growth area LGAs.

 Hot spots
 All LGAs are performing well but key hotspots include:
 •                    Wollert and Doreen in the Whittlesea corridor where house and townhouse style development is on track
                      to exceed volumes in FY 2016/17;
 •                    Mickleham in the Hume corridor where 560 building permits to November 2017 have been issued, which
                      is 63% of the full year outcome in FY 2016/17;                       Building approvals - Growth Area
 •                    Beaconsfield / Officer and Pakenham South in the Cardinia
                                                                           25,000corridor are also ahead of trend relative to FY
                      2016/17 with more than 650 permits issued in the five months
                                                                             20,000 to November 2017;
                                                                                             Building approvals

 •                    Rockbank / Mount Cottrell in the Melton corridor, with 332 building permits to November 2017, is already
                                                                                                                  15,000
                      at 75% of the full year outcome in FY 2016/17; and
 •                                                                         10,000 Wyndham Vale, Point Cook East and South
                      Most release areas in Wyndham including Tarneit, Truganina,
                      and Werribee West where over 2,300 lots received building
                                                                            5,000permits in the five months to November 2017.

                                                                                                                       0
 Weak spots                                                                                                                    FY15/16            FY16/17            FY17/18*
 •                                                                                                                (forecast)
                      None of Melbourne’s growth areas have seen a significant drop in lot development, however building
                      permits in Whittlesea in FY 2017/18 are at levels below Flats
                                                                               peaksunits or apartments
                                                                                        achieved        - Total
                                                                                                    in FY       including
                                                                                                            2014/15       those
                                                                                                                        and  FYattached to aIt
                                                                                                                                 2015/16.    house

                      would be expected that this situation may reverse withSemi-detached,
                                                                             the openingrowoforthe
                                                                                                terrace houses, townhouses - Total
                                                                                                    Mernda rail link in 2019.
                                                                                                                  Houses

                                               Building approvals - Growth Area                                                     Market share growth - Growth Areas
                      25,000
                                                                                                                    Wyndham (C)
Building approvals

                      20,000
                                                                                                                   Whittlesea (C)
                      15,000

                      10,000                                                                                          Melton (C)

                       5,000                                                                                           Hume (C)

                           0                                                                                           Casey (C)
                                    FY15/16             FY16/17            FY17/18*
                                                                           (forecast)
                                                                                                                     Cardinia (S)
                     Flats units or apartments - Total including those attached to a house
                     Semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses - Total                                                   -6%      -4%    -2%     0%      2%      4%      6%
                                                                                                                                          Growth in market share of region
                     Houses
                                                                                                                                           1 year growth     2 years growth
         Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2018

                                        Market share growth - Growth Areas

                       Wyndham (C)

                       Whittlesea (C)
             17 | Residential Development Index
                           Melton (C)

                           Hume (C)
Methodology & Assumptions

         In this section
         Data Sources and Glossary            19
         Geographical Study Areas             20
         Estimating the Supply / Demand Gap   21

18 | Residential Development Index
Data Sources and Glossary

Abbreviations                                              Data & Information Sources

ABS             Australian Bureau of Statistics            In completing components of this report
EY              Ernst & Young                              we have utilised existing sources of data
BA              Building Approvals                         including the following:
LGA             Local Government Area                      • Australian Bureau of Statistics
UDIA            Urban Development Institute of Australia   • Victoria In Future 2016
VIF             Victoria in Future
                                                           • EY proprietary data and research
DSG             Demand and Supply Gap
                                                           • DTF Budget Papers including forecasts
RDI             Residential Development Index
                                                             of population and employment
DBA yield       Estimated yield of dwellings to building
                approvals (used to forecast supply)
Census          Census of population and housing
DTF             Department of Treasury and
                Finance (Victoria)
DELWP           Department of Environment, Land,
                Water, and Planning (Victoria)
State Budget Budget Papers released by DTF

Study Areas & Usage of Data

For the building approvals analysis we have made the following assumptions:

1.   Each geographical catchment has been referenced against defined LGA’s.
2. For the Melbourne geographical catchments (also shown on the following page’s map):
   »» Inner Ring // This term throughout the report refers to Melbourne’s inner ring LGAs (20km from CBD). LGAs analysed within outer ring Melbourne include; Nillumbik,
      Maroondah, Knox, Greater Dandenong and Frankston.
   »» Growth Areas // This term throughout the report refers to the defined Melbourne growth
      areas. LGAs analysed within Melbourne growth areas include; Hume, Whittlesea, Mitchell,
      Casey, Cardinia, Melton and Wyndham.
   »» Regional Victoria // This term throughout the report refers to parts of Victoria excluding
      metropolitan Melbourne.

19 | Residential Development Index
Geographical Study Areas
      Geographical study
      areas utilised in report

                   Inner Ring
                   Middle Ring
                   Outer Ring
                   Growth Area

                                Macedon
                                Ranges

                                                      Whittlesea
                                 Hume                                          Nilumbik

                Melton
                                           Moreland        Banyule
                            Brimbank
                                        Moonee
                                                 Darebin
                                        Valley                                             Yarra
                                                               Manningham                  Ranges
                                  Maribyrnong     Yarra
                                          Melbourne                            Maroondah
                                                       Boroondara
                                 Hobsons                      Whitehorse
                                                 Stonnington
                                 Bay                                           Knox
              Wyndham                        Port
                                             Phillip          Monash

                                                 Bayside

Greater                                                    Kingston
Geelong                                                            Greater
                                                               Dangenong

                                                                                             Cardinia
                                                                                Casey                           Baw Bw

                                                                   Frankston

                                                   Mornington
                                                   Peninsula                      French
                                                                                  Island

                                                                                                        Bass
                                                                                                        Coast

          20 | Residential Development Index
Estimating the Demand and Supply Gap

Introduction and background                                               •       Excess price growth for existing dwellings;
                                                                          •       Households living in a non preferred location
The first UDIA Residential Development Index                                      or a house that is not suited to the family
(RDI) report released in August 2017 provided                                     structure;
initial estimates of whether the supply of new                            •       Rental price increases; and
dwellings being released in Victoria was at levels                        •       Potential reduction in the competitiveness of
equal to or less than demand. Demand was                                          Victoria as a place to live for interstate and
calculated as a function of forecasted household                                  overseas residents due to the cost of housing.
growth.
                                                                          In regard to demand, historically the State
This report has prepared more detailed estimates                          Government has faced challenges in accurately
of whether a demand/supply gap (DSG) exists                               forecasting population growth over the medium
given the recent strengthening of Victorian                               to longer term. Typically a conservative approach
population growth and in turn household                                   has been taken where forecasts are in line with
formation over the last three years.                                      longer term trends and do not assume significant
                                                                          changes in growth drivers.
This issue is of importance as a prolonged
mismatch between demand and supply leads to                               If changes in assumptions are made over a
market distortions. In any year that undersupply                          forecast period it has generally been assumed that
exists excess demand will flow through to                                 growth drivers will moderate.
following years with consequences including:
                                          12,000,000

                                          10,000,000
                    Population Victoria

                                           8,000,000

                                           6,000,000

                                           4,000,000

                                           2,000,000

                                                  0
                                                       2021                   2031                 2051

                                                         VIF current   VIF 2012     VIF 2008

  •   Government’s population forecasts for 2021 have increased by 273,000 persons between
      2008 and 2016 estimates
  •   Forecasts for 2031 have increased by 665,000 persons between 2008 and 2016 estimates
  •   Forecasts for 2051 have increased by more than 1.8 million people between 2008 and 2016
      estimates.

 21 | Residential Development Index
Victoria in Future (VIF) refers to population forecasts
                                             prepared by the State Government.
                                             The analysis above confirms how even relatively minor
     In 2031, we will have at least          increases in population growth above initial projections can
      665,000 more people than               drive dramatic variations in outcomes.
        what was forecast for                Regardless of the outcome that eventuates, ongoing
       that year a decade ago.               changes in projections present a challenge for planners who
                                             are sequencing the release of land supply in Melbourne and
                                             Victoria’s growth areas and urban renewal precincts. It also
                                             presents a major challenge for infrastructure planning.

Estimating the demand and supply gap –
The historical dwelling yield to building approval ratio

Calculating an estimate of current dwelling supply
The most challenging aspect of calculating a demand/supply gap is preparing a current and forecasted
estimate of supply. While the net supply of dwellings is released in the Census every five years, there
is no up to date count of dwelling numbers released each year which makes monitoring supply a
challenging exercise. An alternative methodology beyond the Census therefore needs to be utilised to
estimate current increases in supply.

What we know (historical data)
Based on current information, we have the following inputs to develop a forecast of supply:

•    Between 2011 and 2016, the Census estimated that the number of private dwellings in Victoria
     increased by 222,945 from 2,297,967 to 2,520,912. Occupied private dwellings increased by an
     estimated 187,000 from 2,038,000 to 2,226,000.
•    Over the same period in Victoria there were 287,670 building approvals and 286,500 dwelling
     commencements.
•    This means that on average over the period between 2011
     and 2016, a net yield of 7.8 dwellings per 10 approvals or
     0.78 was observed (Dwelling to building approval yield =                Not all building
     “DBA” yield). In relation to occupied dwellings the DBA             approvals turn into new
     yield was 6.6 dwellings per 10 approvals or 0.66.                  housing   supply. Between
•    This average DBA yield varies significantly in different          2011 and 2016, there was an
     LGAs across Melbourne depending on the mix of dwellings        average net yield of 7.8 dwellings
     being built. In LGAs where a large volume of townhouses          per 10 building approvals. In
     and replacement homes are built, the DBA yield between          relation to occupied dwellings
     2011 and 2016 was as low as 0.6 for all dwellings and as low     the net yield was even lower
     as 0.5 for the supply of occupied dwellings. In growth area         at 6.7 dwellings* per 10
     LGAs where the bulk of dwellings approved are houses on                building approvals.
     new lots, the DBA yield is as high as 0.9.

*Dwellings are considered to be available for permanent
occupation if they are available to live in by owner-occupiers or renters

    22 | Residential Development Index
Future forecasts of supply

Given the recent relationship between net supply and building approvals, as measured by the DBA yield,
we can use this measure to forecast estimates of dwelling supply in years where Census results are not
yet available.

There are several reasons for the DBA yield being significantly less than 1 including:
• New houses built in established suburbs leads to demolition of existing stock. While they add
   bedrooms, they don’t increase the supply of dwellings; and
• Townhouses increase the yield of stock but still involve demolition of existing dwellings.

In addition, many dwellings that are built in coastal and ‘tree-change’ areas as well as other dwellings,
are not available for long-term rental accommodation which leads to a further reduction in the DBA
yield of dwellings available for occupation. This is driven by growing wealth and the ability to afford a
home that can be provided as short term rental to third parties as tourist accommodation.

Between 10% and 20% of dwellings are unoccupied depending on the region / LGA assessed which
means that the actual supply of dwellings available to buy or rent is lower than many estimates.

Based on this analysis, EY has developed a DBA yield that can be applied to building approvals over an
analysis period to act as an estimate of net supply.

The historical average DBA yield in Victoria equates to approximately 0.78 for all dwellings.

The DBA yields estimated at a regional level are as follows:
• Victoria overall – 0.78 total supply and 0.67 available for occupation
• Melbourne statistical division – 0.81 total supply and 0.72 available for occupation

The DBA yields calculated above are utilised in the report to calculate estimated levels of current and
forecast supply based on existing and forecast volumes of building approvals where:

Estimated supply = Building Approvals for assessment period * estimated DBA yield for region
• A buffer or higher yield (equivalent to 1 to 2 percentage points to allow for changes in dwelling
    profiles over time to higher density development) is used to ensure supply is not underestimated.

 23 | Residential Development Index
Estimating the demand and supply gap – Summary

Summary of approach                                     Supply:
There are no regularly updated estimates of net         • Calculate the historical growth in supply of
dwelling supply released annually in Victoria (1).         dwellings using Census data on actual supply
In addition, population forecasts and expected             of dwellings including the supply of dwellings
household formation (demand) needs to be                   available for occupation;
assessed to confirm whether they reflect current        • Compare the historical supply of dwellings
trends.                                                    (including occupied and unoccupied
                                                           dwellings) with building approvals to allow for
Estimates of a demand/supply gap are made                  the calculation of an average ratio of supply
based on a series of assumptions.                          to building approvals (DBA yield); and
                                                        • Utilise the historical DBA yield over the
The following steps are undertaken in calculating          assessment period to forecast current and
a current and future demand/supply gap in                  future levels of supply based on current
Victoria:                                                  trends in building approvals.

Underlying demand:                                      Demand/supply gap
• Estimate household formation between 2016             • Compare the estimated supply of dwellings
   and 2018 and forecast household formation              (including dwellings available for occupation)
   between 2018 and 2021 using demand drivers             with forecasts of demand based on household
   including population growth and estimated              formation; and
   household sizes; and                                 • The variation between demand and supply is
• Undertake sensitivity tests on population               used to determine housing undersupply vs.
   growth and household sizes as required based           oversupply.
   on current trends.

Summary of methodology

                       •   Calculate current and forecast household
                           formation as a measure of demand
    Demand             •   Household formation driven by assumed
                           population growth / changes to household sizes

                                              •    Utilise current building approvals as a measure of supply
                           Supply             •    Calculate supply estimate whereby supply = Building
                                                   Approvals * DBA yield for occupied and total dwellings

                                                                     •   Demand/supply gap calculated
                                                   Demand
                                                                         based on estimated variation for
                                                  supply gap             assessment period

 24 | Residential Development Index
URBAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE
                                       OF AUSTRALIA (VIC)

                                       udiavic.com.au
                                       +61 3 9832 9600
                                       info@udiavic.com.au

                                       Level 4, 437 St Kilda Road,
                                       Melbourne VIC 3004

                                       Disclaimer: The material contained within this
                                       report has been prepared for general informational
                                       purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon
                                       as accounting, tax, or other professional advice.
                                       Please refer to your advisors for specific advice.

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