Schroders Equity Lens - Research and Analytics January 2021
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Schroders Equity Lens Research and Analytics January 2021 Marketing material for professional investors or advisers only.
Table of contents 01 2020: The Year in Review 02 Regional 03 Styles 04 Fundamentals 05 Income 2
Summary (1 of 2) – Despite recording the worst drop in economic activity since the Great Depression, 2020 turned out to be a very positive year for financial markets. The MSCI All-Country World (ACWI) $ Index returned 16.8%, led by the US market, which was up 21.4%. – US outperformance was heavily attributable to the increasing index concentration and rally in the Big Tech stocks – Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Google (Alphabet). Without their contribution, US equities would have returned 13.9% in 2020, behind EM equities (18.7%) and Japanese equities (14.9%). – An effective response to contain Covid-19 allowed certain Asian economies to return to a degree of normality comparatively better than the rest of the world, sending their stock prices higher in the process. Stand-out markets included South Korea (+42.7%), Taiwan (+42.0%) and China (+29.7%). In fact, only 7 out of the 27 countries in the MSCI EM Index posted positive returns in 2020, highlighting the narrowness of the EM rally. – Many of the sectors that suffered deep drawdowns earlier in the year made a substantial comeback. The peak-to-trough loss for global material stocks, for example, was 37.5%. However, they posted a total return of 94.0% from their 2020 low, the largest comeback of any sector. Similarly, global energy stocks experienced a drawdown of 57.6%, but eventually rallied by 67.3% from their market low. 3
Summary (2 of 2) – Covid-19 vaccine optimism continues to support a rotation away from the 2020 winners and towards the laggards. Over the past three months, global small caps outperformed large caps by 8.4%, while global value stocks outperformed growth by 4.7% – Although value has started to gain the upper hand, its recovery has been highly uneven across regions. Over the past three months, outperformance has been most pronounced in the UK (+17.5%). However, relative gains have been far more muted in the US (+2.8%) and are even trending negative in Japan (-3.5%). – Increasing bullish sentiment is leading to more corporate earnings upgrades. For the month of December, the US led the pack, with more than twice as many upgrades as downgrades. Japanese and EM equities also recorded 50-70% more upgrades than downgrades. – Income investors are still reeling from the economic fallout of the pandemic. For example, dividends-per-share in Europe and EM are forecast to return to pre- recession levels only by 2022. Meanwhile, the UK is forecast to take even longer. 4
Global equities 2020: The Year in Review
2020 US equity performance was driven by Big Tech
In fact, EM and Japanese equities (in USD) outperformed the US ex FAMAGs…
2020 $ total return, %
25
21.4
18.7
20
14.9 13.9
15
11.6
10
5
0
-5
-10 -10.4
-15
US EM Japan US ex FAMAGs Europe ex UK UK
Local return Currency return Total return
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars. Notes: FAMAG is a market-cap weighted index of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet
(Google’s parent).
6Will Big Tech maintain its dominance by 2030?
“Top dogs” by market cap tend to be eclipsed or disrupted every decade…
Top five US publicly traded stocks by market cap
Rank 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1 AT&T IBM IBM Exxon Microsoft Exxon Mobil Apple
2 General Motors AT&T AT&T General Electric General Electric Microsoft Microsoft
3 Dupont General Motors Exxon IBM Cisco Walmart Amazon
4 Exxon Eastman Kodak General Motors AT&T Walmart Apple Alphabet
5 General Electric Exxon Amoco Philip Morris Exxon Mobile Johnson & Johnson Facebook
Index
27% 24% 17% 13% 15% 11% 22%
weight
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, S&P Dow Jones and Schroders. Notes: weight based on S&P 500 as at start of year, except for 2020 as at 31 December. Green shading denotes companies from tech sector
(although officially Amazon is consumer discretionary, while Facebook/Alphabet are communication services).
7China was a stand-out market in 2020
…outperforming the US by 8% and global equities by nearly 13%
Total $ return, %
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US China Global equities
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars. Notes: US = MSCI USA Index, China = MSCI China Index, Global equities = MSCI AC World Index $.
82020 EM rally driven by a narrow group of countries
South Korea, Taiwan and China vastly outpaced other emerging markets
2020 $ total return, %
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Brazil
Malaysia
Thailand
Egypt
Qatar
Chile
Poland
Greece
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Mexico
Czech Republic
Kuwait
Russia
Pakistan
Taiwan
EM Index
India
Peru
Turkey
Colombia
Korea
China
Argentina
South Africa
Indonesia
Hungary
Philippines
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars.
9Did you buy the dip? – 2020 global sector returns
Materials, industrials and energy stocks rebounded sharply from their market low
Global $ sector returns, %
IT -31.0 46.1 92.9
Health care -26.8 15.4 53.0
Cons Stap -24.5 8.8 41.7
Utilities -33.8 4.6 46.5
Comm Svs -27.4 24.1 62.7
Materials -37.5 21.5 94.0
Industrials -39.0 11.8 78.9
Financials -41.9 -3.2 65.1
Energy -57.6 -27.7 67.3
Real estate -38.5 -5.7 46.9
Cons Disc -32.6 37.0 96.0
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Maximum drawdown in 2020 Return from 2020 low 2020 return
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars.
10Global equities Regional performance
Performance leadership table
Another winning year for US equities…
Best
Ann return
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD since 09'
EM EM US Europe US US Japan US EM US US US US US
79.0% 19.2% 2.0% 22.5% 32.6% 13.4% 9.9% 11.6% 37.8% -4.5% 30.6% 21.4% 21.4% 15.3%
UK Japan UK EM Europe EM US EM Europe Japan Europe EM EM EM
43.4% 15.6% -2.5% 18.6% 28.7% -1.8% 1.3% 11.6% 27.8% -12.6% 25.9% 18.7% 18.7% 10.1%
Europe US Japan US Japan Japan Europe Japan Japan UK UK Japan Japan Europe
33.9% 15.4% -14.2% 16.1% 27.3% -3.7% 0.1% 2.7% 24.4% -14.1% 21.1% 14.9% 14.9% 8.6%
US UK Europe UK UK UK UK Europe UK EM Japan Europe Europe Japan
27.1% 8.8% -14.5% 15.3% 20.7% -5.4% -7.5% 0.3% 22.4% -14.2% 20.1% 11.6% 11.6% 7.5%
Japan Europe EM Japan EM Europe EM UK US Europe EM UK UK UK
6.4% 2.4% -18.2% 8.4% -2.3% -5.8% -14.6% 0.0% 21.9% -14.4% 18.9% -10.4% -10.4% 6.4%
Worst
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars. Europe = Europe ex UK.
12Breakdown of equity return drivers
Valuations still doing most of the heavy lifting while EPS growth contracts
12m $ return, %
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
US EM Japan Europe ex UK UK
Income EPS growth P/E change FX return Total Return
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars.
13Cracks begin to emerge in US equities’ leadership
Dollar weakness and lofty valuations continues to chip away at US returns
US vs RoW, 12m $ return, %
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019 Jun 2020 Dec 2020
Income EPS growth P/E change FX return Total return
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars. Notes: RoW = MSCI AC World ex US Index $.
14Global (ex US) equities should benefit from cyclical recovery
US market structure mirrors dotcom experience Global equities more economically sensitive than US
S&P 500, % MSCI AC World, %
70 80
65 70
60 60
55 50
50 40
45 30
40 20
35 10
30 0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Cyclical Defensive Cyclical Defensive
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars. Notes: cyclical = materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, energy, financials, real estate. Non-cyclical = utilities,
IT, consumer staples, health care, communication services.
15Weakening dollar in 2021 should further support EM equities
EM vs. DM performance tends to be inversely correlated with the strength of US dollar
12m rolling return, %
20 -15
15
-10
10
-5
5
0 0
-5
5
-10
10
-15
-20 15
Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 20 Dec 20
EM vs DM equities US dollar index (inverted RHS)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020 in US dollars. Notes: EM = MSCI EM index $ and DM = MSCI World Index $.
16Global equities Style performance
Global small cap and value rotation remains intact (so far)
Rolling 3-month global total return
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20
Small vs Large caps Value vs Growth
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020. Based on MSCI AC World Index.
18Value’s winning streak has been uneven across regions
Outperformance has been most pronounced in UK equities compared to elsewhere
Value vs Growth by region, 3-month rolling total return %
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020.
19Opportunity for further mean-reversion still significant
Relative valuations are still completely detached from relative earnings
Global growth/value, rebased to 100
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Growth/value forward 12M EPS Growth/value total return
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020. Based on MSCI AC World.
20What is needed for the value rotation to gather steam?
Faster EPS growth, higher yields and a steeper yield curve are key
Average annualised value premium, %
2
Value
1 outperforms
0
Growth
-1
outperforms
-2
-3
-4
Accelerating profit Decelerating profit Rising yields Falling yields Steepening yield curve Flattening yield curve
growth growth
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data from December 1974 to 30 November 2020. Notes: returns based on monthly rolling annualised returns of MSCI USA Value versus MSCI USA Growth
total returns. Accelerating/decelerating profit growth = y/y abs change in rolling 12-month EPS growth of the MSCI USA Index. Yields = US 10-year Treasury yield. Yield curve is 10-year US Treasury yield versus
3-month US Treasury Bill.
21A stronger economy in 2021 should benefit small businesses
Small caps tend to outperform large caps when business activity improves
Total return %
25 25
20 20
15 15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-15 -10
-20 -15
-25 -20
Dec 08 Dec 10 Dec 12 Dec 14 Dec 16 Dec 18 Dec 20
US Small vs Large caps y/y ISM Manufacturing Index abs y/y chg (RHS)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020.
22Global equities Fundamentals
Markets end year with a bang
Stock prices continue to drift away from near-term fundamentals
YTD % chg
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20
MSCI All-Country World Price $ Index Trailing 12M EPS Forward 12M EPS 2021 EPS 2022 EPS
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, I/B/E/S, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020.
24Nothing looks cheap these days
Bargains are difficult to find, as Japanese and EM equities grow more expensive
Valuations vs. 15-year median (31 December 2020)
Equity market CAPE Forward P/E Trailing P/E P/B Dividend yield
33 23 32 4.4 1.5
US
(23) (15) (19) (2.8) (2.0)
13 14 18 1.6 3.3
UK
(13) (12) (14) (1.8) (3.8)
21 18 24 2.0 2.2
Europe ex. UK
(16) (13) (16) (1.7) (3.2)
21 18 25 1.5 2.0
Japan
(23) (14) (16) (1.3) (2.0)
16 15 22 2.0 2.0
EM
(15) (11) (14) (1.7) (2.6)
Key: >20% 10-20% 0-10% 0-10% 10-20% +20%
Expensive Cheap
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020. Figures are shown on a rounded basis. Assessment of cheap/expensive is relative to 15-year median in brackets.
25Upbeat analyst sentiment prevails
Earnings upgrades far exceeded downgrades for US, Japanese and EM equities
Analyst upgrades/downgrades
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18 Sep 18 Dec 18 Mar 19 Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, IBES, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020. Number of positive/negative 12m forward EPS revisions.
26Earnings projections for the years ahead
Analysts are forecasting a V-shaped recovery around the globe
YoY exp. EPS growth, %
50
43
40 36 36
34
30
20
20 16 16 17 15 16
10
0
-10
-20 -14
-19
-30 -23
-40 -33
-37
-50
2020 2021e 2022e
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: IBES, Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020. Notes: Japan EPS for 2022 is 4 quarter sum until 31 March of following calendar year, e.g. 2022 = 31/03/2022 – 31/03/2023.
27Global equities Income
Income investors feeling impact of deteriorating earnings
EM and European dividends forecast to return to their pre-recession peak by 2022
Dividends per share, index (100 = FY2019)
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
2019 2020 2021 2022
Forecast US UK Europe ex. UK Japan EM
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: IBES, Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020.
29Dividends may be down, but they are not out…
Equity income increasingly attractive versus bond alternatives
Forward 12m dividend yield vs bond yield, %
10
8
6
4
2
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Europe (ex UK) equities US equities US IG Corps US Treasuries
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: IBES, Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI, ICE and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020.
30Dividend vs. bond yields by region
Stocks vastly trump corporate bonds for income in UK, Europe and Japan
Forward 12-month equity dividend vs. bond yield, %
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.0 2.9
2.4
2.5 2.2
2.0 1.9
1.6 1.6
1.5
1.0
0.3 0.5
0.5
0.0
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Equities IG corporate bonds
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: IBES, Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI, ICE and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2020. Corporate bond yield = unhedged local currency yield, except for EM which is in USD.
31Appendix
List of indices (1 of 2) Large cap equities US – MSCI USA Index , or S&P 500 Index where specified UK – MSCI UK Index Europe ex UK – MSCI Europe ex UK Index Japan – MSCI Japan Index Developed markets – MSCI World Index Emerging markets – MSCI EM Index China – MSCI China Index Global – MSCI All Country World Index Rest of world – MSCI All Country World ex US Index Small cap equities US – MSCI USA Small Cap Index UK – MSCI UK Small Cap Index Europe ex UK – MSCI Europe ex UK Small Cap Index Japan – MSCI Japan Small Cap Index Emerging Markets – MSCI EM Small Cap Index Factor and sector indices US Value – MSCI USA Value Index US Growth – MSCI USA Growth Index US Cyclical – MSCI USA $ materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, energy, financials, real estate US Defensive – MSCI USA $ utilities, IT, consumer staples, health care, communication services Global Value – MSCI All Country World Value Index Global Growth – MSCI All Country World Growth Index Global Cyclical – MSCI All Country Global materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, energy, financials, real estate Global Defensive – MSCI All Country Global utilities, IT, consumer staples, health care, communication services 33
List of indices (2 of 2) Bond indices US Treasuries – ICE BofA US Treasury Index US IG Corps – ICE BofA US Corporate Index UK IG Corps – ICE BofA Sterling Corporate Index Europe IG Corps - ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index Japan IG Corps - ICE BofA Japan Corporate Index EM IG Corps - ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Currency indices US Dollar – DXY US Dollar Currency Index 34
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