IATA AVIATION DATA & DIGITAL WEBINAR SERIES - DATA & DIGITAL CAPABILITIES DURING CRISIS - IATA AVIATION DATA ...
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IATA
DATA &
AVIATION DIGITAL
DATA & DIGITAL CAPABILITIES
DURING CRISIS
WEBINAR SERIES
EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE WEBINAR WILL START SHORTLY …
Wednesday 13 May 2020
15:30 – 17:30 CEST
#StayStrong #WeAreAviation #StrongerTogether
EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Houman Goudarzi
Head of BI & Industry Engagement, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3
Aviation Data & Digital Webinar Series
27 April 6 May 13 May 20 May 26 May
15:30 – 17:30 CEST 15:30 – 17:30 CEST 15:30 – 17:30 CEST 15:30 – 17:30 CEST 15:30 – 17:30 CEST
EPISODE 1: ANALYZE & DECIDE EPISODE 3: PLAN RECOVERY EPISODE 5: ADAPT & GROW
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS ON DIGITAL FACILITATING
DATA & ANALYTICS TO
PASSENGER DEMAND & BUYING BUSINESSES TO PIVOT TO
OPTIMIZE CRITICAL DECISIONS
BEHAVIOR DURING & AFTER THE OVERCOME CHALLENGING
DURING CRISIS
COVID-19 CRISIS TIMES
EPISODE 2: HELP CUSTOMERS EPISODE 4: BUILD RESILIENCE
DATA & TECHNOLOGY TOOLS, TECHNOLOGIES &
RELIEVING THE PAIN OF ANALYTICS TO INCREASE
CUSTOMER SERVICE OVERLOAD RESILIENCE OF FLIGHT &
DURING TIMES OF CRISIS AIRCRAFT OPS PLANNING
For more information & Registration go to:
iata.org/addws
AVIATION DATA & DIGITAL WEBINAR SERIES EPISODE 3 SPEAKERS
Alberto Rey Villaverde Brian Pearce Charles De Gheldere Frederik van Essen
Chief Data Officer, JUST EAT Chief Economist, IATA Director Aviation Data, IATA Commercial Director, Digital Ops, KLM
Brian’s slide masked 2
Houman Goudarzi Nils Gelbjerg-hansen Nina Wittkamp
Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
Olivier Jager
Head of BI & Industry Engagement, IATA CEO, Infare Co-founder & CEO, ForwardKeys
Phil Callow Sébastien Texier Sebastien Touraine Yanik Hoyles
CEO, OAG CEO, winglet.io Head Dynamic Offer, IATA Director Distribution, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3
EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Keynote: Welcome and Opening Charles De Gheldere
Director Aviation Data, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3
ANALYTICS ON DEMAND & BUYING BEHAVIOR DURING & AFTER THE COVID-19 CRISIS
Webinar Synopsis: It is difficult to know when the recovery will start for airlines and the wider aviation and travel
industries. Data and analytics can provide insights associated with the various scenarios, demand and buying
behavior. This webinar will focus on data & technology in the context of the COVID-19 crisis.
Wednesday 13 May 2020
Moderator: Houman Goudarzi, Head of BI & Industry Engagement, IATA 15:30 – 17:30 CEST
15:30 – 15:40 Welcome and Opening Charles De Gheldere
Director Aviation Data, IATA
Keynote: COVID-19’s impact on passenger demand, scenario analysis, and the Brian Pearce
15:40 – 16:00 expected recovery. Chief Economist, IATA
Keynote: Insights from KLM on how to maneuver during these uncertain times Frederik van Essen
16:00 – 16:20 Commercial Director, Digital Operation, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
Fireside Chat: Insights from a data guru, former Head of Data Science at Alberto Rey Villaverde
16:20 – 16:40 easyJet. Chief Data Officer, JUST EAT
Panel: Insights to track demand rebound: how to leverage various data sources Nina Wittkamp
(schedule, shopping/pricing, customer behavior, social media etc.) to plan Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
recovery? Phil Callow Nils Gelbjerg-hansen
16:40 – 17:10 CEO, OAG CEO, Infare
Olivier Jager Sébastien Texier
Moderator: Sebastien Touraine, Head Dynamic Offer, IATA Co-founder & CEO, ForwardKeys CEO, winglet.io
Keynote: Air Travel Pulse, a new tool McKinsey & IATA have developed in Nina Wittkamp
partnership that will provide unique insights in demand rebound. Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
17:10 – 17:30 Yanik Hoyles
Director Distribution, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3
EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Keynote: COVID-19’s impact on passenger demand, scenario analysis, and the Brian Pearce
expected recovery. Chief Economist, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3
COVID-19
Outlook for air travel in the
next 5 years
Brian Pearce
Chief Economist
13th May 2020
8
Air travel may recover more slowly than most of economy
Global RPKs recover 2019 levels in 2023, 2 years behind GDP recovery
Global GDP and global RPKs, indexed to equal 100 in 2019
120
Global GDP
110
100 2019 level
Index, 100 in 2019
90
80
Global RPKs
Current baseline
70
60
50
40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2020
Governments have provided unprecedented support
Wage subsidies, grants and loans should allow strong GDP rebound
Government support for economy in 2020, % of GDP
Germany
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
France
Australia
United States
Spain
Canada
Korea
Brazil
Indonesia
China
Argentina
Turkey Spending and tax measures Loans, equity injections, guarantees
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
India
South Africa
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
% of GDP
Source: IATA Economics using data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, April 2020Central banks have also injected cash into economies
The US Federal Reserve has added cash equivalent to 12% of US GDP
Central bank assets, US$ billion
7,000
6,500
6,000
European Central Bank
5,500 +$2.5 trillion
US$ billion
(12% of US GDP)
5,000
4,500 Bank of Japan
4,000
3,500 US Federal Reserve
3,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: IATA Economics using data from Refinitiv DatastreamBusiness confidence has rebounded in China
As lock-down relaxed in China ‘V-shaped’ rise of business confidence
Business confidence (PMI) in manufacturing and services
60
55
50
50 = no change expected
China
45
40
35
30
US
25
20
Germany
15
Source: IATA Economics using data from MarkitSolving health challenge critical for international travel
Until vaccine, opening borders to travel requires fall in COVID-19 risk
New COVID-19 cases, % of total cases, 7-day moving average
20%
15%
10%
Russia
India
5% Brazil
US
Japan
0% China
1-Apr 5-Apr 9-Apr 13-Apr 17-Apr 21-Apr 25-Apr 29-Apr 3-May 7-May
Source: IATA Economics using data from the World Health Organization (WHO)China domestic air travel lagging business confidence
Rise in flights with return to work & VFR, but discretionary travel weak
China domestic flights, COVID-19 new cases
60% 80000
Daily rate of change in Covid-19 Cases,
70000
50%
Number of flights per week
60000
7-day moving average
40%
50000
30% 40000
Domestic flights 30000
20%
20000
10%
10000
New cases COVID-19
0% 0
Source: IATA Economics analysis based on WHO data, and data provided under license by FlightRadar 24. All rights reserved.International RPKs will lag domestic air travel markets
International air travel may not recover 2019 levels until 2023-24
Global domestic and international RPKs, indexed 2019=100
130
Domestic RPKs
120
110 International
Indexed to equal 100 in 2019
RPKs
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2020Average trip length will fall sharply
Domestic markets open first and initial preference for short-haul trips
Average trip length, kilometers
2,100
Average trip length, kilometers
2,050
2,000
Fall of 8.5%
1,950
1,900
1,850
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2020Long-term drivers for expanded demand remain
Populous emerging markets are still likely to want more air services
Trips per capita Airline passenger trips per year and GDP per capita
10.0
Germany US
France
1.0
Russia
Brazil
China
0.1 India
Nigeria
Ethiopia
0.0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
GDP per capita (US$, inflation-adjusted)
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2020Return to growth post-COVID but at a lower level
Global RPKs forecast to be 32%-41% below expected levels in 2021
Global RPK medium term scenarios, O-D basis
12,000
Pre-COVID
11,000 2025: 10% below pre- forecast
COVID expected level
10,000 Current
baseline
2021: 32% below pre-
9,000 COVID setback
COVID expected level
scenario
8,000
Billion
7,000
6,000
5,000
2021: risk could be
4,000 41% lower
3,000
2,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2020Contacts economics@iata.org www.iata.org/economics
EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Keynote: COVID-19’s impact on passenger demand, scenario analysis, and the Brian Pearce
expected recovery. Chief Economist, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Audience: Live Poll (Relevant Data Sources)
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3ANALYTICS ON DEMAND & BUYING BEHAVIOR DURING & AFTER THE COVID-19 CRISIS
Webinar Synopsis: It is difficult to know when the recovery will start for airlines and the wider aviation and travel
industries. Data and analytics can provide insights associated with the various scenarios, demand and buying
behavior. This webinar will focus on data & technology in the context of the COVID-19 crisis.
Wednesday 13 May 2020
Moderator: Houman Goudarzi, Head of BI & Industry Engagement, IATA 15:30 – 17:30 CEST
15:30 – 15:40 Welcome and Opening Charles De Gheldere
Director Aviation Data, IATA
Keynote: COVID-19’s impact on passenger demand, scenario analysis, and the Brian Pearce
15:40 – 16:00 expected recovery. Chief Economist, IATA
Keynote: Insights from KLM on how to maneuver during these uncertain times Frederik van Essen
16:00 – 16:20 Commercial Director, Digital Operation, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
Fireside Chat: Insights from a data guru, former Head of Data Science at Alberto Rey Villaverde
16:20 – 16:40 easyJet. Chief Data Officer, JUST EAT
Panel: Insights to track demand rebound: how to leverage various data sources Nina Wittkamp
(schedule, shopping/pricing, customer behavior, social media etc.) to plan Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
recovery? Phil Callow Nils Gelbjerg-hansen
16:40 – 17:10 CEO, OAG CEO, Infare
Olivier Jager Sébastien Texier
Moderator: Sebastien Touraine, Head Dynamic Offer, IATA Co-founder & CEO, ForwardKeys CEO, winglet.io
Keynote: Air Travel Pulse, a new tool McKinsey & IATA have developed in Nina Wittkamp
partnership that will provide unique insights in demand rebound. Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
17:10 – 17:30 Yanik Hoyles
Director Distribution, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Keynote: Insights from KLM on how to maneuver during these uncertain times Frederik van Essen
Commercial Director, Digital Operation, KLM
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3Acting upon
The Great Aviation
Reset
photo: mark wagtendonk
Frederik van Essen, Digital OPSKLM and BCG Partnership
Joint teams develop AI-driven tools for the
operation of airlines, which are launched as a
service to the aviation industry
25Agenda: Data & digital in post-COVID recovery
for airlines to influence
Virus evolution & Demand Market Flight plan to
govt. response recovery scenarios structure scenarios emerge stronger
National government action for Consumer sentiment and behavior Financial health of airlines at onset Design for the new normal
citizens with specific impact on travel • Overall, by segment (business and actions taken to manage • Optimizing/restructuring network and
• Virus severity and spread vs. leisure and through the crisis (for example, fleet
• Specific travel restrictions short-haul vs. long-haul) liquidity management) • Whole-airline transformation using a
• Announced or expected and by market zero-based approach
duration of restrictions • Impact of COVID-19 on Level and type of financial support
• Conditions for reopening (for megatrends, such as ways by governments, banks, investors With vision for end state in mind, prepare
example, health screening) of working and sustainability for rebound
• Level of trust and safety M&A, joint ventures, and
concerns partnerships
Digital & data capabilities
26Demand recovery scenarios
27These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a prediction or forecast, and the situation is changing daily
Five possible airline demand scenarios in a highly
uncertain future As of mid April
Flown Flown Flown Flown Flown
Revenue 2021 Revenue 2021 Revenue 2021 Revenue 2021 Revenue 2021
Time Time Time Time Time
Scenario
V-shape U-shape Prolonged U-shape L-shape W-shape
Likelihood Very unlikely Very unlikely High likelihood High likelihood Medium likelihood
Reduction in • 2020: $100B-$200B • 2020: $250B-$325B • 2020: $325B-$400B • 2020: $400B-$450B • 2020: $400B-$450B
rev. vs 2019 • 2021: - • 2021: - • 2021: $25B-$75B • 2021: $100B-$200B • 2021: $200B-$250B
Return to • ~6 months • ~10-18 months • ~24 months • ~48+ months • ~48+ months
2019 level1
Virus severity • Quick containment (rapid • Gradual decrease in rate of • Slow, gradual decrease in rate • Slow, gradual decrease in rate • Spread of virus decreases but
and spread drop in new cases and new cases and deaths of new cases and deaths of new cases and deaths then rapidly increases (new
deaths) strain)
Government • Successful containment; relax • Lockdown for ~2 months; • Lockdown for several months; • Lockdown policies in place • Policies relaxed then rapidly
action for policies and reassure public borders gradually reopen travel discouraged; borders and limitation on non- reinstated at sign of
reopen slowly essential travel for rest of resurgence
citizens 2020
Consumer • Leisure and business traffic • Consumer confidence returns • Consumer confidence does • Leisure travel reduced by fear • Confidence returns only to be
sentiment and bounce back quickly quickly return - slowly & sustainability issues hit once more, for a more
• Consumer confidence • Business and short-haul • Businesses restrict business • New ways of working persist; prolonged period, as safety
behaviors recovers quickly leisure travel first, followed by travel temporarily permanent drop in group and concerns persist
• No structural change to long-haul leisure • Economic recession large meetings
behavior • Travel distributors ramp up • Travel distributor failures • Economic depression
operations • Widespread failures in travel
distribution 28
1. Return to 2019 level is the first month of a forwarding looking twelve month rolling window where monthly average RPKs are at or above 2019 monthly average RPKsTracking selected indicators key to determine which
scenario is most likely and where in the recovery we are
Key questions Key indicators to track
How does COVID-19 evolve in hubs
Duration and outstation countries? COVID-19 Development (by country)
of Crisis What are government restrictions; Ability to Travel
Government travel restrictions between countries
how and when are they softened?
Economic sentiment (by region)
Intent • Consumer sentiment (by region)
• Change vs previous survey
• vs. other categories
For both leisure & business consumers:
GDS search data (ARC & 3 Victors)
Are they optimistic about the
• By POS/O&D
Shape of current economy?
Recovery Search Web traffic data (by country)
Are they interested in traveling • vs. other industries
again? • Changes vs. previous period
Are they planning to fly?
Transaction data (by country) (e.g. booking, refunds)
• Changes vs. previous period
Book
OAG schedules
• By O&D
• Changes vs. previous period
• Impact of market structure changes 29Signals that will point to airline
industry recovery: TRIP tool
FREE link on:
AirlineOperations.ai
Domestic
uptick
30Market structure scenarios
31Flightplan new normal
32
photo: sacha de bruinDigital & data will play a key role in the new normal
enabling better, more granular, integrated decisions from planning-to-execution
Start with determining target size and shape
1 Reset and resize Network & Fleet
• Adjust based on expected demand recovery & sequence (business/leisure, short/longhaul) and market structure scenarios
• Adjust fleet strategy for efficiency, e.g. less types, smaller and more efficient gauges
• Optimize for free cash flows/ profit
Stimulate demand to drive top-line recovery Apply zero-based design for lean, flexible operations
2 Address shifting traveler needs and behaviors (e.g. health & safety and 6 Design and implement "at scale" health and distancing measures in
sustainability; new shopping/booking behaviors) customer and employee journeys and practices
3 Use advanced analytics to boost performance (e.g. personalization, next 7 Resize operations and fundamentally shift to more variable staff and
gen RM, marketing effectiveness) operations, e.g. with different labor contracts
4 Revisit distribution strategy: increase focus on digital channels; re-size 8 Leverage AI and bionic opportunities to maximize resource utilization,
re-shape and re-purpose sales force flexibility, efficiency from planning-to-execution
5 Pursue new partnership and M&A opportunities—within the core 9 Prepare to rebound and adjust quicker than competitors; build capabilities
and beyond to deal with more frequent, extreme disruptions
10 Drive sustainability as a core business objective to stimulate demand and achieve competitive advantage, e.g. integrate into metrics across business
Implement the organization to deliver
11 Rebuild more agile and digitally enhanced organization; e.g. cross-functional and cross-hierarchical teams, new ways of working
12 Embrace diversity and protect top talents, ensure to avoid "last-in first-out" as a standard mechanism to reduce workforce
13 Drastically reduce technology budget by radical shift to value-based technology approach incl reducing legacy IT systems, costs
33
14 Strengthen focus on free cash flow and liquidity throughout the recovery including digital procurement DigitalDigital & data will play a key role in the new normal
two examples
Start with determining target size and shape
Network (TRIP)
Fleet
Stimulate demand to drive top-line recovery Apply zero-based design for lean, flexible ops
People & Organization
Operational performance
(direct staff)
Outsourcing Digital (OPS)
Implement the organization to deliver
34Prescriptive solutions go beyond
predictive
Function
Zero Based Scaling
for post-COVID rebound
35Rapidly defines what the routes to fly, with what
aircraft and how often based on constantly evolving
world demand forecast aiming for optimal
Objective profitability/free cash flow
Focus on multiple months before DoO
Zero-based
scaling| Digital
Demand forecasts to develop multiple scenario’s
network design Assessment of schedule viability
Overview of Adjust schedule to maximize network planning and fleet
for the new key features/ management
normal use cases
Increased flight profitability through lower variable
operating costs & higher captured revenues
Enhanced customer benefits through avoiding schedule
Value
changes & enhanced employee benefits through
assistance in scheduling process 36Digital Operations
Integrated, quantified decision making across silos and planning horizons
WE APPLY A HOLISTIC FRAMEWORK… … TO DRIVE INTEGRAL DECISION MAKING
Commercial planning, Covering 3 planning cycle horizons including
network and info to passengers feedback loops between them
1
2
1) Strategic: ~12-4 months before Day of
3 Operation
2) Robustness: ~3 months until day before
DoO
3) Execution, managing disruptions: DoO
Ground crew
Flight crew
& equipment Covering all contributors needed to deliver
a
every day, every flight
d b a) Commercial planning, network
c
and info to passengers
b) Flight crew
c) Fleet and maintenance
Fleet and maintenance
d) Ground crew and equipment
37‘s digital OPS transformation
Fully embraced by
CEO/ COO/ OPS management
From start-up to scaleup: the Vision of integral
market forces us to be the best decision making
~20-30%
improvement
Build in-house Operations in operational The real value is the
Decisions Support team 10-20-70
and capabilities KPIs business transformation
Agile Way of working and rigorous
Think big, start small mentality to build
focus on frontline adoption and
credibility and fund the journey;
impact to manage the change
38www.airlineoperations.ai
EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Keynote: Insights from KLM on how to maneuver during these uncertain times Frederik van Essen
Commercial Director, Digital Operation, KLM
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3ANALYTICS ON DEMAND & BUYING BEHAVIOR DURING & AFTER THE COVID-19 CRISIS
Webinar Synopsis: It is difficult to know when the recovery will start for airlines and the wider aviation and travel
industries. Data and analytics can provide insights associated with the various scenarios, demand and buying
behavior. This webinar will focus on data & technology in the context of the COVID-19 crisis.
Wednesday 13 May 2020
Moderator: Houman Goudarzi, Head of BI & Industry Engagement, IATA 15:30 – 17:30 CEST
15:30 – 15:40 Welcome and Opening Charles De Gheldere
Director Aviation Data, IATA
Keynote: COVID-19’s impact on passenger demand, scenario analysis, and the Brian Pearce
15:40 – 16:00 expected recovery. Chief Economist, IATA
Keynote: Insights from KLM on how to maneuver during these uncertain times Frederik van Essen
16:00 – 16:20 Commercial Director, Digital Operation, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
Fireside Chat: Insights from a data guru, former Head of Data Science at Alberto Rey Villaverde
16:20 – 16:40 easyJet. Chief Data Officer, JUST EAT
Panel: Insights to track demand rebound: how to leverage various data sources Nina Wittkamp
(schedule, shopping/pricing, customer behavior, social media etc.) to plan Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
recovery? Phil Callow Nils Gelbjerg-hansen
16:40 – 17:10 CEO, OAG CEO, Infare
Olivier Jager Sébastien Texier
Moderator: Sebastien Touraine, Head Dynamic Offer, IATA Co-founder & CEO, ForwardKeys CEO, winglet.io
Keynote: Air Travel Pulse, a new tool McKinsey & IATA have developed in Nina Wittkamp
partnership that will provide unique insights in demand rebound. Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
17:10 – 17:30 Yanik Hoyles
Director Distribution, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Fireside Chat: Insights from a data guru, former Head of Data Science at easyJet. Alberto Rey Villaverde
Chief Data Officer, JUST EAT
Houman Goudarzi
Head of BI & Industry Engagement, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3ANALYTICS ON DEMAND & BUYING BEHAVIOR DURING & AFTER THE COVID-19 CRISIS
Webinar Synopsis: It is difficult to know when the recovery will start for airlines and the wider aviation and travel
industries. Data and analytics can provide insights associated with the various scenarios, demand and buying
behavior. This webinar will focus on data & technology in the context of the COVID-19 crisis.
Wednesday 13 May 2020
Moderator: Houman Goudarzi, Head of BI & Industry Engagement, IATA 15:30 – 17:30 CEST
15:30 – 15:40 Welcome and Opening Charles De Gheldere
Director Aviation Data, IATA
Keynote: COVID-19’s impact on passenger demand, scenario analysis, and the Brian Pearce
15:40 – 16:00 expected recovery. Chief Economist, IATA
Keynote: Insights from KLM on how to maneuver during these uncertain times Frederik van Essen
16:00 – 16:20 Commercial Director, Digital Operation, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
Fireside Chat: Insights from a data guru, former Head of Data Science at Alberto Rey Villaverde
16:20 – 16:40 easyJet. Chief Data Officer, JUST EAT
Panel: Insights to track demand rebound: how to leverage various data sources Nina Wittkamp
(schedule, shopping/pricing, customer behavior, social media etc.) to plan Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
recovery? Phil Callow Nils Gelbjerg-hansen
16:40 – 17:10 CEO, OAG CEO, Infare
Olivier Jager Sébastien Texier
Moderator: Sebastien Touraine, Head Dynamic Offer, IATA Co-founder & CEO, ForwardKeys CEO, winglet.io
Keynote: Air Travel Pulse, a new tool McKinsey & IATA have developed in Nina Wittkamp
partnership that will provide unique insights in demand rebound. Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
17:10 – 17:30 Yanik Hoyles
Director Distribution, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3EPISODE 3 (Plan Recovery)
Sébastien Touraine
Head Dynamic Offer, IATA Nina Wittkamp Olivier Jager
(Moderator)
Phil Callow
CEO, OAG Expert Associate Partner, Co-founder & CEO,
McKinsey & Company ForwardKeys
LIVE PANEL IN PROGRESS
Panel: Insights to track demand
rebound: how to leverage various
data sources (schedule, shopping,
pricing, customer behavior, social
media etc.) to plan recovery?
Nils Gelbjerg-hansen Sébastien Texier
CEO, Infare CEO, winglet.io
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3Phil Callow – CEO, OAG
OAG CHANGING SCHEDULES
IN A COVID-19 WORLD
MAKE SMARTER
MOVESLIVING WITH CHANGING DATA
The pace of change in capacity has never been “Then” (20th January) “Now” (11th May)
more dramatic. Weekly Capacity 106.4m 29.8m
To date, 489,000 flights scheduled to operate in Weekly Flights 712,871 226,005
January have been dropped by airlines. Number of Airlines Flying 709 537
Number of Airport Pairs 47,756 25,237
Some 76.5 million seats that were to have been
operated since January have been dropped.
Schedule 2019 2020 % Change Source: OAG Schedules Analyser
We’ve tracked everyone of those schedule Files
changes, capacity changes, timing changes and Deleted
distributed them around the globe. January 193,534 208,293 7.6%
February 202,250 324,133 60.2%
March 214,801 849,362 395%
April 223,544 750,521 335%
Source: OAG Schedules Analyser
MAKE SMARTER
MOVESNO TWO AIRLINES ACT AT THE SAME TIME….
Many of the major global airlines file schedule changes everyday, some on multiple occasions.
And every airline has a different way in handling schedule changes.
▪ Some want their flights removed straight away
▪ Some want to re-protect passengers first
▪ Some want to continue showing the flight but close out sales via the GDS’s
▪ Some want to wait until their codeshare partners services are aligned
▪ Some want to make adjustments well in advance
▪ Some want to make adjustments at the very last minute in case sudden demand occurs
Last Saturday Delta Air Lines made some 89,000 schedule changes in one filing submitted to OAG
Diving into the COVID-19 event has seen huge with unprecedented levels of schedule change.
Coming back out we expect to see even more changes as airlines seek a way forward.
MAKE SMARTER
MOVESA US MARKET EXAMPLE….
Weekly Flight Adjustments Major US Airlines
20th January - 17th May DL & UA started adjusting schedules on the 23rd
50 March.
Number of Scheduled Flights (000's)
45
40
35 AA on the 30th March
30
25
20 WN on the 6th April
15
10
5 Every major US carrier has made multiple changes
0 to their schedules in the last eight weeks as they
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
work through what’s happening.
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
n-
n-
pr
pr
pr
pr
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ay
ay
eb
eb
eb
eb
-Ja
-Ja
-M
-M
-M
-M
-M
-A
-A
-A
-A
-M
-M
-F
-F
-F
-F
20
27
06
13
20
27
03
10
17
24
02
09
16
23
30
04
11
American Airlines Southwest Airlines Delta Air Lines
United Airlines Alaska Airlines JetBlue Airways Corporation
Source: OAG Schedules Analyser
But schedule changes only tell half of the story.
MAKE SMARTER
MOVESDRAMATIC CANCELLATION SPIKE ACROSS US DOMESTIC
NETWORKS
Cancellation rates reached 40% in late March as
airlines grappled with schedule changes,
network adjustments and falling demand.
Only in the last week have we seen cancellation
rates back at near normal levels.
We could see similar rates of cancellations if too
much capacity is added back too quickly such is
the careful balancing required in the next few
months.
Source: OAG Schedules Analyser
MAKE SMARTER
MOVESEPISODE 3 (Plan Recovery)
Sébastien Touraine
Head Dynamic Offer, IATA Nina Wittkamp Olivier Jager
(Moderator)
Phil Callow
CEO, OAG Expert Associate Partner, Co-founder & CEO,
McKinsey & Company ForwardKeys
LIVE PANEL IN PROGRESS
Panel: Insights to track demand
rebound: how to leverage various
data sources (schedule, shopping,
pricing, customer behavior, social
media etc.) to plan recovery?
Nils Gelbjerg-hansen Sébastien Texier
CEO, Infare CEO, winglet.io
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3ANALYTICS ON DEMAND & BUYING BEHAVIOR DURING & AFTER THE COVID-19 CRISIS
Webinar Synopsis: It is difficult to know when the recovery will start for airlines and the wider aviation and travel
industries. Data and analytics can provide insights associated with the various scenarios, demand and buying
behavior. This webinar will focus on data & technology in the context of the COVID-19 crisis.
Wednesday 13 May 2020
Moderator: Houman Goudarzi, Head of BI & Industry Engagement, IATA 15:30 – 17:30 CEST
15:30 – 15:40 Welcome and Opening Charles De Gheldere
Director Aviation Data, IATA
Keynote: COVID-19’s impact on passenger demand, scenario analysis, and the Brian Pearce
15:40 – 16:00 expected recovery. Chief Economist, IATA
Keynote: Insights from KLM on how to maneuver during these uncertain times Frederik van Essen
16:00 – 16:20 Commercial Director, Digital Operation, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
Fireside Chat: Insights from a data guru, former Head of Data Science at Alberto Rey Villaverde
16:20 – 16:40 easyJet. Chief Data Officer, JUST EAT
Panel: Insights to track demand rebound: how to leverage various data sources Nina Wittkamp
(schedule, shopping/pricing, customer behavior, social media etc.) to plan Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
recovery? Phil Callow Nils Gelbjerg-hansen
16:40 – 17:10 CEO, OAG CEO, Infare
Olivier Jager Sébastien Texier
Moderator: Sebastien Touraine, Head Dynamic Offer, IATA Co-founder & CEO, ForwardKeys CEO, winglet.io
Keynote: Air Travel Pulse, a new tool McKinsey & IATA have developed in Nina Wittkamp
partnership that will provide unique insights in demand rebound. Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
17:10 – 17:30 Yanik Hoyles
Director Distribution, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Keynote: Air Travel Pulse, a new tool McKinsey & IATA have developed in Nina Wittkamp
partnership that will provide unique insights in demand rebound. Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
Yanik Hoyles
Director Distribution, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3Air Travel Pulse includes a selection of leading indicators for air
travel demand rebound
Dashboard Sentiment and Web Analytics Search and booking
description Summary: Recovery Scorecard dashboard trends dashboard Air travel capacity dashboard
Overview of leading indicators, demand and View of COVID-19 developments and travel Searches and bookings by country/ region Comparison of current air travel demand
capacity trends interest using Google search trends as a and their corresponding trends and supply
proxy
Sample Where do we see early signals for changes in Where along the COVID-19 curve is a Which countries/ regions are seeing the How much has capacity been cut across
air travel demand? certain region/ country standing on? greatest demand in searches? different countries/ regions?
questions
addressed Which regions/ countries should be positioning How much have travel-related Google Are people booking domestic or How have countries/ regions adjusted their
by page themselves for an increase in capacity? searches increased/ decreased over time? international travel? capacity relative to shifts in demand?
How is consumer sentiment, search and What travel search terms are people What kind of travel are people searching Is there high/ low saturation in a particular
booking behavior changing by country? looking for (hotel, car rental, etc.)? for/ booking (one-way, weekend, etc.)? market?
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanyRecovery scorecard captures selected
leading indicators along the demand funnel
Coming soon
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanyRecovery scorecard captures selected
leading indicators along the demand funnel
Coming soon
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanyEurope is interesting since summer holiday
destinations get ready for inbound tourism
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanyEurope is interesting since summer holiday
destinations get ready for inbound tourism
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanyIn the short-term, we observe a high number
of cancellations of cross-border flights
Coming soon
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanyBookings in Europe start to pick up slightly for
travel during summer holiday season
Coming soon
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanyBookings in Europe start to pick up slightly for
travel during summer holiday season
Coming soon
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanyBookings in Europe start to pick up slightly for
travel during summer holiday season
Coming soon
SOURCE: Air Travel Pulse by IATA and McKinsey & CompanySign up to our
publications
…and subscribe to
the HUB newsletter
www.iata.org/optinEPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Keynote: Air Travel Pulse, a new tool McKinsey & IATA have developed in Nina Wittkamp
partnership that will provide unique insights in demand rebound. Expert Associate Partner, McKinsey & Company
Yanik Hoyles
Director Distribution, IATA
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3EPISODE 3 (PLAN RECOVERY)
LIVE PRESENTATION IN PROGRESS
Audience: Live Poll (Demand in 2021)
ADDWS 2020 Series 1, Episode 3Aviation Data & Digital Webinar Series
27 April 6 May 13 May 20 May 26 May
15:30 – 17:30 CEST 15:30 – 17:30 CEST 15:30 – 17:30 CEST 15:30 – 17:30 CEST 15:30 – 17:30 CEST
EPISODE 1: ANALYZE & DECIDE EPISODE 3: PLAN RECOVERY EPISODE 5: ADAPT & GROW
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS ON DIGITAL FACILITATING
DATA & ANALYTICS TO
PASSENGER DEMAND & BUYING BUSINESSES TO PIVOT TO
OPTIMIZE CRITICAL DECISIONS
BEHAVIOR DURING & AFTER THE OVERCOME CHALLENGING
DURING CRISIS
COVID-19 CRISIS TIMES
EPISODE 2: HELP CUSTOMERS EPISODE 4: BUILD RESILIENCE
DATA & TECHNOLOGY TOOLS, TECHNOLOGIES &
RELIEVING THE PAIN OF ANALYTICS TO INCREASE
CUSTOMER SERVICE OVERLOAD RESILIENCE OF FLIGHT &
DURING TIMES OF CRISIS AIRCRAFT OPS PLANNING
For more information & Registration go to:
iata.org/addwsThank you, and see you soon!
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