DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham

 
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
DOING
                               COLD
                               SMARTER

@BHAMENERGY
WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC .UK/ENERGY
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
2   Doing Cold Smarter

                         ABOUT THE BIRMINGHAM ENERGY INSTITUTE
                         The Birmingham Energy Institute is the focal point for the University and its national and
                         international partners, to create change in the way we deliver, consume and think about
                         energy. The Institute harnesses expertise from the fundamental sciences and
                         engineering through to business and economics to deliver co-ordinated research,
                         education and the development of global partnerships.

                         The Midlands region is renowned for its ability to drive technology revolution and
                         provide a nationally leading manufacturing base. It is the home of pioneers such as
                         Watt, Boulton and Priestly and the internationally recognised companies of Rolls-Royce
                         and Jaguar Land Rover.

                         The City of Birmingham is setting the green low carbon agenda nationally. Birmingham
                         City Council’s Green Commission launched a Vision Statement with an aim of building
                         a leading green city and reducing CO2 emissions by 60% by 2027 against a 1990
                         baseline. The UK Government is committed to facilitating a cost-effective approach to
                         meeting the UK’s emissions by at least 80% of 1990 levels by 2050. The Birmingham
                         Energy Institute is working with these stakeholders to realise this transition.

                         INFORMING AND SHAPING POLICY
                         The Birmingham Energy Institute leads the way in providing a sound evidence base to
                         inform policy makers. The Institute draws on the broad capabilities and expertise at the
                         University of Birmingham and its strong relationship with collaborators from academia,
                         industry and the third sector, to generate new thinking on contemporary issues of
                         global, national and civic concern.

                         The policy commissions investigating ‘The Future of UK Nuclear Energy’ (2012) and
                         ‘Future Urban Living’ (2014) have helped shape the thinking of government and policy
                         makers as the UK seeks to transform how it generates and consumes energy. These
                         were led by Lord Hunt of Kings Heath and Lord Shipley of Gosforth.

                         Furthermore, by working with the ‘Industry and Parliament Trust’ academics from the
                         Birmingham Centre for Environmental and Energy Economics and Management,
                         Birmingham Energy Institute Centre, have worked to encourage dialogue between
                         policymakers and academics on sustainability and energy issues. Recently they have
                         contributed to the IPT ‘Sustainability Commission Report’ and the Energy report
                         generated by the Resilient Futures programme.

                         Birmingham Energy Institute academics are also leading work on a White Paper
                         analysing the contribution of fuel cells and hydrogen to UK national energy security
                         and energy affordability that will inform Westminster politics in autumn 2015.
                         There are a number of future energy related policy commissions in the pipeline
                         focussing on innovation, transport and energy markets.
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
Doing Cold Smarter   3

CONTENTS

           Chairman’s letter                                 5

           Foreword                                          6

           Acknowledgements                                  8

           Executive summary and recommendations             9

           Key recommendations                               15

           Section 1: Cold: vital but dirty                  17

           Section 2: Why does the problem persist?          25

           Section 3: Doing Cold Smarter: the Cold Economy   33

           Section 4: UK plc                                 53

           Section 5: Roadmap                                57

           Section 6: Policy recommendations                 65

           Glossary                                          70

           Cooling Timeline                                  72

           Appendix 1: Commission work programme             74

           Appendix 2: The Commission                        75

           Appendix 3: Witnesses                             79

           References                                        80

           Co-ordinator: Gavin Harper
           Editor: David Strahan
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
4   Doing Cold Smarter

                         I JUMPED AT THE OPPORTUNITY TO
                         CHAIR THE UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM’S
                         COMMISSION ON ‘COLD’ OF WHICH THIS
                         REPORT IS THE PRIME OUTPUT. I HOPE
                         THAT IT WILL KICK-OFF A WIDER POLICY
                         DEBATE, AND OUR RECOMMENDATIONS
                         BECOME THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG WHEN
                         IT COMES TO POLICY FORMULATION AND
                         FUTURE ACTION.

                         LORD ROBIN TEVERSON
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
Doing Cold Smarter   5

LE T TER FROM THE CHAIRMAN
Energy has been at the front of political and academic debate in recent years. We
regularly rehearse the arguments over fossil fuels and climate change. In politics the
rising cost of energy to power and heat our homes grabbed major attention leading
up to the last election. Winter deaths from inadequate house insulation, the cost of
nuclear generation, the benefits or otherwise of fracking, energy security, the state
of competition between the Big Six – these are all topics that feature in the current
discussion around energy. Many even reach the headlines of our daily papers and
broadcast media.

But one aspect of this debate that seems never to appear on the energy horizon
is cold. We are all experts on heat, but when it comes to the 16% or so of our
generating capacity that is used to keep our offices, food, cars, medicines, homes
and scientific instruments cool, there has been little to say.

Having spoken on energy issues in Parliament for seven years I cannot remember one
debate, or one piece of legislation that has tackled this growing use of our energy.

Out there in the wider world, a lack of refrigeration in developing countries means that
food produced by farmers cannot reach markets, and the amount lost to pestilence
and high temperatures is far higher: almost 50% of fruit and vegetables are discarded
before ever reaching a consumer.

But keeping ourselves, our food, and our medicines cool is going to be an increasing
challenge. Keeping things cold currently uses some of the more polluting technologies
in terms of carbon and other emissions. It is a challenge not just for the warmer parts
of the world but us here in the UK too.

For all these reasons I jumped at the opportunity to chair the University of Birmingham’s
Commission on cold of which this report is the prime output. I hope that it will kick-off
a wider policy debate, and our recommendations become the tip of the iceberg when
it comes to policy formulation and future action.

As the report also shows, we have some real innovators in the UK in cold technologies.
Some concentrated attention could mean that the UK plays a major role worldwide in
this increasingly important area.

Lord Robin Teverson
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
6   Doing Cold Smarter

                         FOREWORD
                         Cold has been much neglected in the energy debate. Governments are developing
                         strategies and policies to green everything from electricity to transport to heat, but the
                         energy and environmental impacts of cooling have so far been largely ignored. This
                         is a serious oversight, since making things cold is energy intensive and can be highly
                         polluting, and demand for cooling in all its forms is booming worldwide – especially
                         in developing countries. According to one projection, by the end of this century global
                         demand for air conditioning alone could consume the equivalent of half our worldwide
                         electricity generation today – and most of the increase will come in developing markets.
                         The ‘greening’ of cold is clearly an urgent global problem – but it may also offer
                         Britain a massive business opportunity.

                         Cold may have been ignored but is vitally important to many aspects of modern life.
                         An effective cold chain, for example, is essential for tackling problems such as food
                         waste, food security, water conservation and public health. Cooling is also critical for
                         many less obvious but essential functions: data centres couldn’t operate without it,
                         nor for example MRI scanners in medicine or superconductors in power electronics.
                         Cooling also provides modern levels of comfort in hot countries – and can make
                         the difference between some regions being habitable or not.

                         At the same time, vast amounts of cold are wasted – for instance during the re-
                         gasification of LNG – which could in principle be recycled to satisfy some of this
                         demand and start to reduce the environmental damage caused by cooling. Such
                         a system-level approach – which starts by asking what energy services we need,
                         and what is the least damaging way to provide them, rather than accepting existing
                         practices as a fait accompli – has recently been coined the ‘Cold Economy’. It is clear
                         the Cold Economy could unleash a wide range of innovative clean cold technologies
                         and provide energy resilience, economic growth and environmental benefits, but
                         there is an urgent need to develop a system-level analysis of this problem and the
                         potential solutions to inform both industry and policymakers. The Birmingham Policy
                         Commission: Doing Cold Smarter was convened to start this work.

                         This inquiry is rather different from previous University of Birmingham policy
                         commissions, such as those on nuclear power or the future of urban living, where
                         the evidence and arguments were already well rehearsed. By contrast the debate
                         around clean cold is at such an early stage – and good data on cooling hard still
                         to come by – that the Commission restricted itself to tackling a short list of the
                         most fundamental questions:
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
Doing Cold Smarter   7

1	Should UK plc invest to develop clean cold systems and technologies
   (rather than simply import them)?
   a. What would be the impact on Britain’s domestic energy and
       environmental position?
   b. What is the scale of the global market opportunity?
   c. What are Britain’s strengths, weaknesses and competitive position
       relative to other countries, especially those in the Far East?
   d. What role could Britain adopt in the global value chain?
   e. What could be the value to UK plc?

2	If the answer to 1 is ‘Yes’, what is required to enable it to happen from:
   a. Industry
   b. Government
   c. Universities
   d. Innovation agencies such as Catapults?

The answers led the Commission to propose three urgent recommendations for the
Government: establish an institutional champion to catalyse the development of clean
cold; conduct a Technology Innovation Needs Assessment (TINA) for clean cold; and
develop a rigorous system-level analysis of the environmental and financial benefits of
the Cold Economy. We also developed a series of more detailed policy proposals,
and a high-level technology roadmap to guide next steps and longer term progress
– with the support of stakeholders from innovators to end-users. We hope the report
and roadmap will prove useful not only to government but also universities, technology
developers, industry and customers, and will contribute to the rapid development
of clean cold technologies and the Cold Economy.

Professor Martin Freer
Professor Toby Peters
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
8   Doing Cold Smarter

                         ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
                         We wish to thank the many people have who have devoted considerable time and
                         effort to the work of the Commission. These include the Commissioners, who
                         contributed their tremendous knowledge of energy technology, economics, markets
                         and policy; Lord Robin Teverson, who chaired the Commission with the insight
                         and vision needed to keep the proceedings on track; and the witnesses and others
                         who attended individual meetings and workshops.

                         The Commission greatly appreciates the depth and quality of the input from those
                         who attended its evidence gathering sessions. At the heart of any successful process
                         are organisation, planning and efficiency – capably provided by the Commission
                         support team.

                         The views expressed in this report reflect the discussions of the Commission
                         and the input received and do not necessarily reflect the personal views of those
                         who contributed.
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
Doing Cold Smarter   9

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AND RECOMMENDATIONS

                     Cold is vital                                 Cold is highly polluting
DEMAND FOR COOLING
IN ALL ITS FORMS     Even in a temperate country such as           Yet existing cooling technologies
IS ACCELERATING      Britain, cooling is everywhere, and vital     consume large amounts of energy
                     to many aspects of civilisation: food,        and can be highly polluting. The data
                     medicine, energy, data and industry.          is poor, but one estimate suggests that
                                                                   refrigeration and air conditioning cause
                     Without cooling, these services would         10% of global CO2 emissions1 – three
                     be impossible to provide, and in many         times more than is attributed to aviation
                     parts of the world, life would be scarcely    and shipping combined2 – through
                     tolerable without air conditioning. In        energy consumption and leaks of HFC
                     developing countries, however, billions       refrigerants that are themselves highly
                     of people live without cooling and suffer     potent greenhouse gases. Another
                     the consequences daily through hunger         estimate, from the German Government,
                     and ill-health. The lack of adequate cold     suggests cooling emissions currently
                     storage and refrigerated transport causes     account for 7% of the total, but are
                     two million vaccine preventable deaths        growing three times faster, so cooling’s
                     each year, and the loss of 200 million        share will almost double to 13% by
                     tonnes of food. As the world’s population     2030.3 Diesel powered fridges on
                     heads towards 10 billion by 2050, and         refrigerated vehicles also emit grossly
                     with more than 60% projected to be            disproportionate amounts of toxic
                     living in cities, there is no question that   NOX and PM – many times more than
                     we will need far more cooling.                a modern truck propulsion engine.
                                                                   These are two of the key pollutants
                                                                   that contribute to 3.7 million premature
                                                                   deaths through outdoor air pollution
                                                                   worldwide each year.4
DOING COLD SMARTER - @BHAMENERGY WWW.BIRMINGHAM.AC.UK/ENERGY - University of Birmingham
10   Doing Cold Smarter

     Cooling demand is booming                       We need to ‘do cold smarter’                The Cold Economy: an
                                                                                                 environmental and business
     For a technology that is so vital and           The environmental impact of conventional    opportunity for UK plc
     yet so dirty, remarkably little is known        cooling technologies can be partially
     for sure about the impacts of cooling;          mitigated through existing efforts to       Cooling poses a massive environmental
     governments generally collect and               improve efficiency and regulatory changes   challenge, but could also represent a
     publish little official data. But it is clear   such as the phasing out of HFC              major business opportunity for Britain if
     that cooling is already a significant energy    refrigerant gases in the EU. But these      our companies and research institutions
     consumer and polluter, and is likely to         improvements are highly unlikely to deal    can establish a global lead in clean cold
     become massively more so given the              with the looming environmental challenge,   technologies – potentially creating
     projected demand growth – especially            in part because of entrenched barriers      thousands of new British manufacturing
     in developing countries undergoing              including equipment buyers’ focus on        jobs. We estimate the Cold Economy
     rapid demographic change:                       capital rather than lifecycle costs, even   could generate annual global savings of
                                                     when a more expensive product would         between £43 billion and £112 billion – a
     n	The IPCC projects that global air            save them money overall, and low levels     vast potential market and one which is set
        conditioning energy demand will              of R&D, but also the sheer scale of         to grow for the rest of this century. We
        grow 33-fold from 300TWh in 2000             projected demand growth. Evidence           suggest the best way to capture some of
        to more than 10,000 TWh in 2100,             suggests the energy efficiency of cooling   this is for Britain to develop its own Cold
        with most of the growth in developing        in some sectors could be raised by          Economy, which would not only produce
        economies.5 10,000TWh is roughly             30% on the basis of best-in-class           environmental and economic benefits at
        half the total electricity generated         products and practices alone, but even      home, but also serve as a platform for
        worldwide in 2010.6                          if business barriers could be overcome,     innovation and exports.
     n	Worldwide energy demand for space            this improvement would be utterly
        cooling will overtake space heating          overwhelmed by the projected 33-fold        The Cold Economy is a radically new
        by 2060, and outstrip it by 60% at           growth in developing world air              approach that applies a system-level
        the end of the century, as cooling           conditioning demand. We clearly need        analysis to recruit vast untapped
        demand in the developing countries           to do cold smarter, and we believe the      resources of waste cold, ‘free’ cold, waste
        of the global south grows faster than        answer is to radically improve efficiency   heat, renewable heat, and ‘wrong-time’
        heating demand in the developed              by developing a new ‘Cold Economy’.         energy – such as wind or nuclear power
        northern economies.7
     n	The European Commission expects
        cooling demand in EU buildings to
                                                                                          Financial
        rise 70% by 2030.8                                                            savings through
     n	Chinese consumers bought 50 million                                            rational use of
        air conditioning units – equivalent to                                           resources
        half the entire US domestic air
        conditioner fleet – in 2010 alone.9
     n	The worldwide refrigerated vehicle
        fleet could grow from around 4 million10
        today to as much as 18 million by 2025
        to satisfy currently unmet demand in
        developing countries.11 In the EU, the
                                                           Growing demand/             Need to                  Economic growth

        pollution caused costs of transport
                                                             need for cold             ‘do cold                 through step-out

        refrigeration have been forecast to
                                                               services
                                                                                       smarter’                    innovation

        rise to €22 billion by 2025.12
     n	If nothing is done, within 15 years
        cooling will require an additional
        139GW – more than the generating
        capacity of Canada – and raise
        greenhouse gas emissions by over
        1.5 billion tonnes of CO2 per year,                                            Environmental
                                                                                       improvements
        three times the current energy
        emissions of Britain or Brazil.13

                                                                             Figure 1: The need to do cold smarter
Doing Cold Smarter    11

produced at night when demand is low –        The Cold Economy approach is powerful          security; and create business
to radically improve the efficiency of        in part because it recognises that there       opportunities, growth and jobs. Making
cooling, and reduce its environmental         is no demand for cold per se, but for          use of all the recoverable waste cold
impact and cost. These waste or surplus       services that depend on it such as chilled     from projected UK LNG imports in 2030
resources can be used to provide cooling      food, comfortably cool rooms in hot            could in principle increase the country’s
by converting them into a novel ‘vector’ –    climates and online data. This approach        overall efficiency of cooling eight-fold and
a means of storing and transporting cold      turns our thinking about cooling on its        reduce costs by £1 billion or 20%.
– such as liquid air or nitrogen. A key       head. For the first time we are asking
insight of the Cold Economy is that           ourselves ‘what is the energy service we       The direct benefits of the Cold Economy
energy can be stored and moved as cold        require, and how can we provide it in the      to Britain appear significant, but
rather than converted into electricity and    least damaging way?’, rather than ‘how         are likely to be dwarfed by those to
then converted again to provide cooling.      much electricity do I need to generate?’.      the developing world, because of
The Cold Economy is less about individual     This can lead to far greater integration of    the sheer scale of projected cooling
clean cold technologies – although these      cold demand with sources of waste cold         demand growth, and the severity of the
are vital – and more about the efficient      and heat, and ‘wrong-time’ low carbon          environmental impacts of a business as
integration of cooling with waste and         energy; the use of cryogens as vectors to      usual approach in those countries. The
renewable resources, and with the wider       store and transport cold and power; and        potential export market for clean cold
energy system. It recognises the scale of     the development of more efficient              technologies and know-how looks vast,
cooling demand growth and the need to         technologies, practices and materials.         and we suggest that building a Cold
pre-empt its environmental impact, and                                                       Economy at home is the best way to
the opportunities this will generate.         We believe the benefits of this approach       ensure Britain captures a significant slice.
                                              will be to reduce costs, CO2 and local air     This requires both new policies from
Evidence to the Commission suggested          pollution; improve energy and food             government, and a technology roadmap.
a four-stage approach to doing cold
smarter, culminating in the Cold Economy:

1 Reduce cold load/cooling work
   required: eg better building design,
   vaccines that survive at higher
   temperatures;

2 Reduce the energy required for
   cooling: ie increase the efficiency
   cooling technologies – eg. cold stores
   could raise efficiency by an average of               Managing
                                                           cold                         Making
   30% using off the shelf solutions only14                                              cold
  – and reduce the global warming
  potential (GWP) of refrigerant gases;
                                                                                  Storing
3S ystem-level thinking/Cold Economy:                                             cold
 a. Harness waste resources: ‘wrong-
 time’ renewables; waste cold (LNG);
 waste heat, or renewable heat from
                                                                                           Moving
 biomass or ground-source heat pumps;
                                                                                            cold
 system integration across buildings
 and transport;
 b. Cold energy storage to
  warehouse and shift wrong-time energy                                            Using
  to replace peak electricity demand                                               cold
  and diesel consumption;

4	Having thus minimised energy demand,
   convert remaining cooling loads to
   sustainable energy sources.

                                                                      Figure 2: An integrated approach to cold
12   Doing Cold Smarter

     How to reach the Cold                          The roadmap focuses on driving                             The roadmapping exercise revealed
     Economy: Roadmap                               new thinking in key areas                                  at least six groupings of industries and
                                                                                                               applications that for which the Cold
     The roadmap for cold is intended to            Making cold                                                Economy would generate value:
     describe what is required to develop           n	Harness waste/unused resources e.g.:
     a vibrant British clean cold industry that            – ‘wrong-time’ renewable energy                    – 	Built Environment: Building energy,
     will not only dramatically improve the                   (e.g. wind)                                          local-scale energy buffering and power
     environmental performance of cooling                  – waste cold (e.g. LNG)                                 generation, air conditioning, data
     in this country, but also establish and               – ambient heat and cold                                centre cooling, warehouse refrigeration
     maintain a lead in a new global market                   (e.g. ground-source)                             –	Transport: Propulsion, waste heat
     potentially worth £ hundreds of billions.                                                                     recovery, interaction with ICE and
     It is a high-level industry roadmap,           Storing cold                                                   electrochemical systems, LiAir, LN2,
     developed by the Commission and                n	Thermal energy storage to warehouse                         LH2 LNG or NH3 as a fuel, provision
     external experts. It is technology agnostic                                                                   of a/c from cold
     and resolutely practical: it does not fix      Moving cold                                                –	Cold Chain: Transport refrigeration,
     its eyes solely on what might be achieved      n	New energy vectors and material                             depots, retail and medical
     from blue-sky technologies in 15 years,           to shift cold                                           –	Industrial process: Industrial Gases
     but is equally occupied with the significant                                                                  and Processes, LNG and LH2 import
     short-term gains from improved                 Using cold                                                     and distribution, industrial-scale
     maintenance of existing equipment –            n Reduce cold loads                                            chilling and freezing processes
     and all the steps in between.                  n	Increase efficiency and reduce GWP                      –	Advanced: Superconductors,
                                                       of conventional technologies                                nanotechnology, other fundamental
     The aims of the roadmap are to                 n	New technologies to harness novel                           or advanced concepts
     reduce consumption of non-renewable               thermal stores and energy vectors
     natural resources, pollutant emissions,                                                                   The results of the roadmapping exercise
     greenhouse gases (CO2, refrigerants) and       Managing cold                                              are summarised in Figures 3 and 4.
     the total cost of ownership for equipment      n Data monitoring
     operators, but at the same time generate       n	Intelligent controls
     economic value to UK plc through               n System-level management
     improved productivity and exports, and
     social benefits for emerging economies
     through the creation of clean cold chains.
                                                                                            THE COLD ECONOMY
                                                                                   Transition inventions to new system-level architecture
                                                                                       delivering environmental and economic gain

                                                                            COLD AS A SERVICE                                THE COLD ECONOMY
                                                     business models

                                                                          New focus is on customer                        Harnessing renewable, natural
                                                      Leverage new

                                                                         service requirement and how                       resources and waste cold of
                                                                         best to use energy, not simply                   LNG to create new intergrated
                                                                             electricity generation                         clean cold energy systems

                                                                                                            DRIVERS
                                                                                                        Policy and greater
                                                                                                    percentage of UK research
                                                                                                       and research funding

                                                                                                                                     STEP CHANGE
                                                                                     CURRENT
                                                     Leverage existing
                                                     business models

                                                                                                                            i	Optimisation and new
                                                                           First generation technologies
                                                                                                                                 engine geometrics
                                                                         delivering clean cold and power
                                                                                                                            ii Small-scale liquefaction
                                                                          for multiple BE and aux engine
                                                                                                                            iii	New higher energy density
                                                                            applications (TRU/Air Con)
                                                                                                                                 thermal storage materials

                                                                          Leverage existing technologies                     Leverage new technologies

                                                    Figure 3: Transitional stages to the Cold Economy
Doing Cold Smarter   13

                            Reduction in CO2 footprint
   Drivers for Change

                               Increased pollution from NOX and PM
                                   Transition to lower GWP refrigerants
                                       Increased demand for cooling
                                          Availability of cryogens and other novel vectors
                                              Integration of cooling and cold as an energy vector
                                                  Expansion of UK manufacturing and jobs

                            Higher Efficiency Cooling Technologies (increased COP)
   Technology Innovations

                               Development of new, low GWP, refrigerants and phase out of HFCs
                                   Cold energy storage materials; high density, long term storage, rapid cycle
                                       White goods linked to district cooling schemes
                                          Novel refrigeration and cooling technologies; magnetic, electro, sorbtion
                                              Integration of thermal energy technologies delivering heating and cooling
                                                  Advanced cryogenic technologies; e.g. zero boil off systems
                                                      Enhanced heat pump technology

                            Greater exploitation ground-source heat and waste heat
                               LNG re-gasification and liquid air liquefaction
opportunities
 Cross over

                                   Grid balancing and district cooling and heating
                                       Vehicles: Liquid air – LN2 – LH2 systems
                                          Advanced superconductor technologies in power systems
                                              Food refrigeration and transport with liquid air generation and use

                            Development of cold and cooling as a product; move from technology focus
                               Create appropriate incentives and regulatory framework
                                   Introduction of market mechanisms that allow new technologies to break through
   Interventions

                                       Small and large scale demonstration facilities for proof of principle and validation
                                          Manufacturing environment to accelerate price competitive technologies to market
                                              Explotation of state-of-the-art manufacturing processes and data
                                                  Develop a service culture and infrastructure related to cold technologies
                                                      Development of R&D capability on a scale which matches potential of cold
                                                          Develop@ UK skills base linked to state-of-the-art cold systems

Figure 4: Steps towards a cold economy
14   Doing Cold Smarter

     How to reach the
     Cold Economy: policy                            Global market need                                                     Technology shifts
     recommendations
                                                     Rapidly increasing                                                        UK innovation in
     There is a strong case for the British          demand for cold and               The opportunity                       producing, storing
     Government to take the lead and develop         cooling of all types                                                       and using cold
     a comprehensive policy around clean             globally, especially                There is a real chance
     cold, both to further its strategic aims for    in the rapidly                      for the UK to maintain                  Increasing use
     energy and the environment, and create          emerging and                         the initiative and take                  of cryogenic
     a platform for innovation and exports that      developing                          the lead in this rapidly              fuels natural gas
     could help Britain secure a lead in what                                               emerging global
                                                     economies                                                                    and hydrogen
     promises to be a major global market.                                                 commercial market.

                                                     Growing recognition                                                           Rising use of
     Developing policy on cold would deliver:        of its energy demand                                                 renewables and need
                                                     and environmental                                                        for grid balancing
     n Reduced costs to industry and                footprint
        consumers: E4tech estimates that
        doubling Britain’s cooling efficiency
        through the Cold Economy could save         Figure 5: Why develop policy on cold?
        the country around £1 billion;
     n	Reduced CO2 emissions: key is
        deploying more efficient, low carbon
        technologies;                               n Exports, growth, jobs and skills:              cooling is poor. For this reason our five
     n	Energy security: raising cooling               if the immediate benefits from greening        key recommendations are intended to
        efficiency reduces the electricity             Britain’s cooling are worth £1 billion         raise awareness of the importance of
        required, and would therefore                  as E4tech estimates, we would expect           clean cold and improve the data and
        improve capacity margins;                      potential value of supplying clean cold        analysis of the cooling system in Britain.
     n	Grid balancing: some clean cold                to the global market to be many times          If these are accepted, we propose a
        technologies incorporate thermal               higher. Based on the estimated value           further series of more detailed proposals.
        energy storage, meaning they can               of clean cold to Britain, scaling by           For a full description of our key and
        help reduce peak electrical loads              GDP produces a global value of £43             additional proposals see Sections 5
        on hot days;                                   billion, and scaling by population gives       and 6 of the main report.
     n	Food security: improved cold                   a global value of £112 billion.15 Even at
        chains would reduce food loss                  the lower figure – which takes no
        worldwide, so helping to constrain             account of projected cooling demand
        food price rises in both developing            growth in developing countries –
        and developed countries;                       the opportunity is enormous.
     n	Air quality and health: existing
        transport refrigeration and diesel          Many areas of policy clearly need work,
        generators emit grossly                     particularly in light of the barriers to clean
        disproportionate amounts of NOX and         cold, which could be cleared by
        PM; the profile of toxic air pollution is   government intervention. But although the
        rising rapidly following the Volkswagen     case for developing detailed policies is
        emissions testing scandal, while recent     compelling, we believe there are more
        court judgements that oblige Britain        fundamental issues to resolve first.              Existing transport refrigeration and diesel
        to submit a new air quality strategy to     Awareness of the need for clean cold is           generators emit grossly disproportionate
        Brussels by the end of this year;           woeful, for example, and the data around          amounts of NOX
Doing Cold Smarter    15

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

1 Raising awareness and                      2 Technology Innovation                       3 System-level model
long term commitment                         Needs Assessment                              of UK cold
                                             for cooling
We believe government has a major                                                          This Commission has produced a first-take
role to play in raising awareness of the     Technology Innovation Needs                   analysis of cooling demand and resources
environmental and economic importance        Assessments (TINAs) are carried out by        in the UK. But a proper understanding of
of cooling. If the Government makes          the Low Carbon Innovation Co-ordination       the potential of the Cold Economy requires
clear its long term commitment to the        Group (LCICG), whose core members             a more detailed and definitive model to
adoption of clean cold technologies it       include DECC, BIS, the Engineering and        be developed. This model should use
will increase the confidence of investors.   Physical Sciences Research Council            whole-system methodology to evaluate the
We urge the Government to:                   (EPSRC), the Energy Technologies              reduction in system cost – financial and
                                             Institute (ETI), Innovate UK and the Carbon   environmental – that could be achieved by
n	Establish a lead department with          Trust. TINAs are intended to identify and     deploying new cooling technologies.
   responsibility for clean cold. Since      value the main innovation needs of specific
   cold touches so many aspects of the       low-carbon technology families to             The whole-system approach is required
   energy system, the environment and        inform the prioritisation of public sector    because the potential benefits stretch far
   the economy, the development of           investment in low-carbon innovation. Each     wider than those enjoyed by the individual
   policy should involve several arms        TINA analyses, estimates or identifies:       owner or user of clean cold technologies.
   of government – DECC, Defra, BIS,                                                       These benefits span transport, food,
   DfT and the Treasury – but we             n	the potential role of the technology       buildings, industry and energy, and include:
   recommend that a single department           in the UK’s energy system                  lower costs; reduced emissions of
   should take ownership of this issue       n the value to the UK from cutting           greenhouse gases, NOX and PM; and
   and co-ordinate with the others.             the costs of the technology through        improved grid resilience resulting from
n	Appoint an institutional champion            innovation                                 reduced cooling loads and increased use
   for clean cold: we recommend the          n	the value to the UK of the green           of wrong-time renewable energy and
   Energy Systems Catapult should               growth opportunity from exports            waste heat and cold.
   adopt clean cold as one of its themes,    n	the case for UK public sector
   and act as a co-ordinating body for          intervention in innovation                 We recommend that Research Councils,
   analysis and development of clean         n	the potential innovation priorities to     Innovate UK and the Government jointly
   cold technologies in Britain.                deliver the greatest benefit to the UK     fund a study to assess the social benefits
n	Develop a concordat for the UK                                                          of implementing the measures outlined in
   cooling and refrigeration industry:       These are precisely the questions that        this report. We expect this work would
   that encourages the development           need to be answered around clean cold.        take a two-step approach: first to
   of products with high-efficiency,         TINAs have already been conducted for         understand the cold value chain in more
   low levels of pollution and carbon        ten energy sectors including an analysis      depth, and second to integrate this into
   impact, establishing UK industry          of heating, which concluded innovation        whole systems models. For more detail
   as best-in-class.                         could reduce UK energy system costs by        see section 5 of the full report.
                                             £14–66 billion and raise GDP by £2–12
                                             billion to UK GDP to 2050. As we argue        A truly system-level model of cooling in
                                             above, the value of clean cold technology     Britain would inform decisions in policy
                                             exports to developing countries – which       and research funding and provide the
                                             almost all have hot climates – could be       evidence to ensure interventions are
                                             far higher.16                                 directed where beneficial impacts are most
                                                                                           likely. Building and integrating such models
                                                                                           would start with the UK, but could then
                                                                                           be extended to other markets. It would
                                                                                           therefore highlight the value of clean cold
                                                                                           technology innovation in developing
                                                                                           export opportunities for business.
16   Doing Cold Smarter

     KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

     4 Support demonstration                     5 Measurement and
     projects                                    management of clean cold

     The environmental benefits of clean         It is axiomatic that `you cannot manage
     cold technologies are likely to be          what you cannot measure’, and many
     significant in Britain, but those in the    users of cooling have very little idea about
     developing world will be enormous, and      how much energy they are consuming,
     the economic value of satisfying those      the efficiency or inefficiency of their
     needs equally large. For this reason        equipment, and how much pollution they
     government should consider supporting       are causing. This is true for individual
     clean cold demonstration projects, both     cooling applications but probably even
     in Britain and abroad, as a platform for    more so at the level of an entire company.
     future exports. In Britain, such projects   Some large consumers of cold may have
     could explore ways of measuring cooling     a clear idea of their cooling energy
     demand and aggregating cooling loads        consumption but perhaps much less
     – for instance between a hotel, data        of their cooling requirement (coolth).
     centre and logistics business – to build    We believe this requires the development
     a viable business case. In Africa, they     of a new broad measure of the energy
     could simultaneously demonstrate            efficiency and environmental impact of
     effective ways to reduce postharvest        cooling, by which companies can judge
     food loss – and the consequent waste        their progress and performance relative
     of land, water and energy, and needless     to their peers, which may also help them
     emission of CO2 – while laying the          identify cooling loads that could be
     foundations for future economic growth      aggregated and therefore supplied more
     and British jobs.                           efficiently through district cooling
                                                 schemes. The Coefficient of Performance
                                                 (CoP) used for individual appliances
                                                 is too narrow a measure, and we favour
                                                 a broader indexed approach capturing
                                                 energy consumption, emissions (CO2,
                                                 NOX, PM) and whether the energy source
                                                 worsens or mitigates peak load.

                                                 The Government should consider
                                                 leading the development of a broad
                                                 metric of the energy and environmental
                                                 impact of cooling and promoting it
                                                 among companies on a voluntary
                                                 reporting basis.
Doing Cold Smarter   17

SECTION 1
COLD IS VITAL BUT DIRTY
18   Doing Cold Smarter

     COLD IS VITAL BUT DIRT Y

     Cold is vital                                   n Data and telecoms: Data                  In short, in developed countries, life
                                                        centres consume 2–3% of Britain’s        without cooling is almost unthinkable.
     Even in a temperate country such as                electricity, and half of that is for     But in many parts of the world, people
     Britain, cooling is everywhere, and vital to       cooling21, without which the internet    understand only too well what the
     many aspects of modern life. Without it,           would quickly collapse. Global           absence of cooling means because they
     the supply of food, medicine, power and            data centre power consumption            live with it daily. In fact, a lack of cold
     data would simply break down. It is no             almost quadrupled between 2007           can be seen as the hidden link between
     exaggeration to say that if cooling were           and 2013 to 43GW22, roughly              several apparently separate looming
     somehow suddenly withdrawn from                    the generating capacity of South         global crises – food, energy and water
     advanced economies, life would quickly             Africa.23 At this growth rate, by        – as the population heads to perhaps
     become extremely difficult. Here is what           2030 the additional cooling load         10 billion by 2050.
     we would have to do without:                       would require another 35GW of
                                                        generating capacity, or more than        Demand for food is projected to grow
     n	Food: Much of our food depends on               that of Poland.24                        by 40% by 2030 and 70% by 205028;
        the ‘cold chain’, a seamless network of                                                  at the same time The Food and
        refrigerated warehousing, sea-               n Air conditioning: Vital for modern       Agriculture Organization of the United
        containers and trucks that stretch from         levels of comfort in many parts of the   Nations (FAO) estimates that about a
        the farm gate – which could be in Asia,         world including the United States,       third of all food is lost to wastage
        Africa or Latin America – to the                where over 80% of homes25 and            worldwide.29 Most food is lost between
        supermarket display cabinet. 70%                commercial buildings26 are equipped,     farm and retailer, and the problem is
        of foods are chilled or frozen when             and the Middle East and Asia.            greatest in the developing world.30 The
        produced17, and 50% are retailed using          Skyscrapers worldwide would be           International Institute of Refrigeration has
        refrigerated display, and increasing            uninhabitable without it. Car air        estimated that if developing countries had
        amounts are delivered to your doorstep          conditioning in the US consumes          same level of cold chain as developed,
        by refrigerated home delivery vans. The         an estimated 7–10 billion gallons        they could save 200 million tonnes
        total value of refrigerated food sold in        of petrol per year.                      of perishable food or 14% of the food
        the UK is around £56 billion per year18,                                                 supply.31 Another study found that halving
        and the value of food transported cold       n Energy security: Production of           food wastage could feed an extra 1 billion
        worldwide in 2002 was $744 billion.19           Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and          people32, which is comfortably higher
        Domestic refrigeration is the biggest           other cryogenic fuels depends on         than the 800 million who were chronically
        consumer of cooling energy in the UK,           industrial scale cooling. The global     undernourished in 2012–14. The lack
        at around 13TWh per year or 4% of               trade in LNG is forecast to reach        of cooling not only worsens food security
        UK electricity.                                 500mtpa by 2025 – the equivalent         but also food safety: low level food
                                                        of ten times total current UK gas        poisoning is an endemic problem in
     n	Fertilizer: Cooling is a vital step in the      consumption27 – and is vital to the      much of the developing world.33
        Haber-Bosch process that converts               energy security of many countries.
        atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia                                                        The consequences of such colossal
        fertilizer, credited with producing the      n Industry: Cooling is essential to        wastage spread far beyond hunger and
        food to feed 3 billion people – almost          produce industrial gases such as         inflated food prices. The FAO estimates
        half the world’s population. Put another        oxygen for steelmaking, chemicals,       that total food wastage occupies a land
        way, this process provides all the food         plastics, industry and hospitals,        area the size of Mexico; consumes 250
        eaten every second day.                         and nitrogen for fire suppression.       km3 of water per year, three times the
                                                                                                 volume of Lake Geneva; and accounts
     n	Medicine: Many vital medicines and           n Science: The Large Hadron                for 3.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
        treatments require refrigeration to             Collider at CERN in Switzerland          emissions, making it the third biggest
        produce or transport – including the            depends on cryogenic cooling; as         emitter after the US and China.34 In other
        world’s biggest selling medicine, the           do Maglev trains and the fuel for        words, if cold chains in the developing
        anti-cholesterol drug Lipitor.20 MRI            space rockets. Cryogenic cooling         world could be brought up to the levels of
        scanners could not work without the             touches around 17% of the                those in the developed world, the benefits
        extreme cold of liquid helium.                  British economy.                         would extend far beyond the immediate
Doing Cold Smarter   19

reduction in wastage, hunger and rising      the electricity they consume, and leaks         million refrigerated vehicles will emit
food prices. They would even extend          of HFC refrigerants, or ‘F-gases’, which        13mtCO2e in 2015 from diesel and
beyond agriculture, resources and            are highly potent greenhouse gases.             F-gas leakage combined.45
climate: 25% of all vaccines arrive
damaged or degraded35, and two million       It is the high global warming potential         This last report, Liquid Air on the
people die each year from vaccine            (GWP) F-gases that have captured the            European Highway, also found that
preventable diseases simply because          attention of policymakers, and it is easy to    refrigerant leakage accounts for 17%
of inadequate refrigerated distribution.36   see why: the most commonly used F-gas,          of the lifecycle emissions of a transport
                                             R404A, is 3,922 times more powerful             refrigeration unit (TRU), and diesel
It is clear that cooling matters.            than carbon dioxide, meaning that a leak        consumption for around 90% of the
                                             of one kilogramme of refrigerant has            rest – i.e. 75% of the total. So although
                                             the same global warming impact as four          it is clearly important to minimise and
…but cold is also highly                     tonnes of carbon dioxide. But although          eventually eliminate F-gas leakage
polluting                                    the emissions from F-gas are grossly            or use, it is even more important to
                                             disproportionate to the volumes of              eliminate the CO2 emissions from
                                             gas leaked, the bulk of cooling emissions       energy consumption of refrigeration,
The current environmental footprint          still come from energy consumption.             which suggests the need to develop
of cold – greenhouse gases                   Academics at LSBU estimate that                 entirely new refrigeration cycles
Cooling is important not just because it     25% of the global warming impact of             and technologies.
supports civilised life, but also because    refrigeration and air conditioning is due to
it consumes large amounts of energy          F-gas leakage and 75% due to emissions          In short, cooling is not only vital but
and takes a heavy toll on the environment    from power generation and diesel.40             also highly damaging to the environment
through emissions of greenhouse gases        The EU regulations introduced this year         and health, causing high emissions,
and toxic air pollutants. Academics          will reduce the volume of high GWP              greenhouse gases and toxic air pollutants.
at London South Bank University              F-gases available to scarcely 20%               In contrast to the widespread perception,
(LSBU) estimate refrigeration and            of current levels by 2030, meaning that         however, the greater part of that pollution
air conditioning (RAC) consumes              energy will soon represent more than            from cooling devices comes from their
around 16% of UK electricity and is          90% of the sector’s GHG emissions.41            energy consumption rather than leaks
responsible for 10% of global CO2                                                            of refrigerant gases.
emissions37 – which is three times           The amount of energy consumed by
more than is attributed to aviation and      cooling in individual sectors is significant.   The current environmental footprint
shipping combined.38 Another estimate,       We estimate Britain’s supermarkets              of cold – toxic air pollution
from the German Government,                  consume around 9TWh of electricity              Some cooling applications are also
suggests cooling emissions currently         per year, of which around 3.6TWh – or           responsible for large emissions of
account for 7% of the total, but are         1% of the country’s power – goes on             toxic air pollutants including nitrogen
growing three times faster, so cooling’s     cooling42, and the internet is another          oxides (NOX) and particulate matter
share will almost double to 13%              huge consumer of cold. On the roads,            (PM). These are the pollutants that
by 2030.39                                   refrigerated vehicles are also big polluters.   cause up to 52,500 premature deaths
                                             Work by Professor Savvas Tassou at              in Britain each year according to recent
The main culprit is the vapour               Brunel University suggests that transport       government estimates46; over 400,000
compression refrigeration cycle – the        refrigeration consumes up to 20% of             in the EU47; 600,000 in India48; and
overwhelmingly dominant means of             a refrigerated vehicle’s diesel, and is         3.3 million worldwide49 – more than
cooling – which was invented in 1805,        therefore responsible for a fifth of its        die from malaria and HIV Aids combined50.
commercialised for industrial uses           well-to-wheels CO2.43 Professor Judith          Cooling contributes to these emissions
towards the end of the 19th century, and     Evans at LSBU calculates that in Britain        through the use of electricity generated
spawned the global boom in domestic          transport refrigeration causes emissions        by coal fired and to a lesser extent
fridges and air conditioning ever since.     of around 2mtCO2 per year from diesel           gas-fired power stations, transport
The lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions       consumption alone.44 In Europe, a report        refrigeration units and diesel electricity
of refrigeration devices comprise the CO2    from Dearman, a clean cold technology           generators known as ‘gensets’.
emitted by power stations that generate      developer, found that the EU’s fleet of 1
20   Doing Cold Smarter

     Fridges on trucks, trailers and vans are       technologies based on energy storage         chain investment is also booming in India,
     powered by electricity generated by            that separate the generation of cold in      where annual revenues from the sector are
     burning diesel. For vans and smaller           time from its consumption.                   forecast to reach $13 billion by 2017.62
     trucks this may be via an alternator or                                                     This correlation should come as no
     compressor mounted directly on the             In short, we would need to develop clean     surprise: as people’s incomes rise, they
     propulsion engine, but for most trucks         cold technologies on the basis of its        naturally buy the appliances and services
     and virtually all trailers, the power is       current impact on the environment and        that improve the quality, safety and variety
     produced by an entirely separate diesel        health, even if global demand were static.   of the food they eat.
     engine. In Europe these auxiliary engines      But it is not: cooling demand is set to
     are essentially unregulated and therefore      grow dramatically.                           The sharp slowdown in the Chinese
     inefficient and highly polluting.                                                           economy this year may of course slow the
                                                                                                 growth in demand for cooling for a time,
     Analysis conducted by E4tech, the              And demand is booming                        but the demographic factors supporting
     clean energy consultancy, for Dearman,                                                      future growth in the developing world look
     has found that auxiliary transport             Cold matters not only because it is vital    irresistible. The population growing fast;
     refrigeration units can emit up to six times   to modern life, and currently imposes        the middle class in Asia is expected
     as much NOX and 29 times as much PM            heavy costs on health and the environment,   to swell from around 500 million people
     as a Euro VI truck propulsion engine.51        but also because demand for cooling is       today to 3 billion people by 2030, two
     As a result, a recent report from Dearman      set to soar. There are several causes,       thirds of the global total63; and in some
     found that in 2015 the European TRU            including rising temperatures due to         countries the population is getting
     fleet would emit 40,000 tonnes NOX,            climate change, feedback loops caused        younger and therefore more productive.
     equivalent to over 26 million Euro 6           by current cooling technologies, and         Urbanisation proceeds apace: Goldman
     diesel cars, and 5,000 tonnes of PM,           structural economic growth in developing     Sachs expects India’s cities to swell by
     equivalent to 56 million Euro 6 diesel         countries causing the emergence of a         500 million people over the next 25 years,
     cars.52 The analysis found that if nothing     huge new middle class.                       and the UN forecasts the global urban
     is done the cumulative social cost of those                                                 population will rise from 3.9 billion
     emissions – including health costs, the        Structural growth in the                     in 2014 to 6.4 billion by 2050 or 66%
     value of the years of lost life and output,    developing economies                         of the total.64
     and damage to crops and buildings –            By far the strongest driver of global
     will rise to over €7 billion by 2025.53        demand for cooling in the short to           All this should tend to increase demand for
                                                    medium term is the tectonic shift in         western-style diets and levels of comfort,
     In developing countries such as India,         the demographics of developing               most of which depends on cooling.
     where electricity grids are weak and           economies – which is already having
     power cuts a daily occurrence, cooling         a dramatic effect.                           The rapid growth in cooling demand in
     loads are closely connected to the                                                          developing countries is driven not only by
     use of diesel gensets, which like TRUs         The emerging markets boom of the last        shifting demographics, but also by a
     are highly polluting. Blackouts happen         three decades is a familiar story. Less      yawning need: primarily the imperative to
     because the country has too little primary     well known is the surge in cooling           reduce food waste in order to feed a
     generating capacity, and cannot cope           that has been an integral part of that       population of 9 or 10 billion by 2050 –
     with daily demand peaks that are largely       expansion. In China, for example, fridge     it’s estimated that halving food wastage
     driven by air conditioning demand –            ownership among urban households rose        could feed an extra 1 billion people.65 And
     which Tata Power estimates accounts for        from 7% to 95% between 1995 and              the International Institute of Refrigeration
     40% of total consumption.54 As a result,       200757; and cold storage capacity soared     (IIR) estimates that if developing countries
     many commercial customers have installed       nine-fold from just 250 million cubic        had the same level of refrigerated
     diesel gensets to protect themselves           feet to more than 2 billion in the three     transport and warehousing as found in
     from the country’s frail grid – and these      years to 201058, and is on track to more     the developed world, 200 million tonnes
     units now account for more than 90GW,          than double again by 2017.59 Chinese         of perishable food would be saved each
     or 36% of India’s total power generation       consumers bought 50 million air              year – or 14% of the food supply.66
     capacity.55 Gensets in India are typically     conditioning units – equivalent to half
     used far more often – on average 500           the entire US domestic air conditioner       Despite the strong growth in the
     hours per year – than those in developed       fleet – in 2010 alone.60                     developing giants, cold chains remain
     economies such as the UK.56 Since much                                                      rudimentary or non-existent in most
     of this capacity will be turned on as a        China’s cold chain business is reported to   developing countries, meaning that in
     consequence of cooling demand, there           be growing at 25% per year and projected     India just 4% of fresh produce is
     is a clear need to develop cooling             to be worth $75 billion by 2017.61 Cold      transported cold67, compared to more
Doing Cold Smarter      21

than 90% in the UK. China meanwhile            considered mature such as the US –                           In any event, the European Commission
has an estimated 66,000 refrigerated           where home air conditioning already                          expects cooling demand in EU buildings
trucks to serve a population of 1.3 billion,   accounts for 8% of the electricity                           to rise 70% by 2030.76 And the IPCC, in
compared to France which has 140,000           generated for all purposes, costing                          its reference scenario, projects that global
to serve 66 million.68 At the same time,       consumers $15 billion per year, and                          air conditioning energy demand will grow
new food safety regulations come into          causes emissions of around 196                               33-fold from 300TWh in 2000 to more
force in China this year that mean 20% of      million tonnes, or 2 tonnes per household                    than 10,000 TWh in 2100. The IPCC
fresh fruits and vegetables, 50% of meat       with air conditioning.73 According to                        says most of the growth will occur in
and 65% of seafood will now have to be         another estimate, US air conditioning                        developing economies, and 25% will be
transported by cold chain, compared to         accounts for 20% of home electricity                         due to climate change.77 10,000TWh is
5%, 15% and 23% today.69 So there is           consumption and 13% of commercial                            roughly half the total electricity
clearly massive headroom for growth.           demand, which together represent                             generated worldwide in 2010.78
                                               more electricity than is generated in
The Chief Executive of India’s National        the entire continent of Africa for all                       Energy demand for heating will also
Centre for Cold-chain Development,             purposes.74 Energy consumption may                           increase, of course, but less quickly,
Pawanexh Kohli, who gave evidence              rise proportionately more than cooling                       because the northern economies where
before the Doing Cold Smarter                  load, since cooling equipment is                             heating is required are generally wealthy
Commission, estimates India has                typically sized to meet peak load. Peak                      enough – bar the poorest households –
perhaps 9,000 refrigerated trucks,             temperatures are likely to rise more than                    to afford it already. As a result, the energy
far too few to service its 31 million tonnes   average temperatures, and appliances                         required for space cooling worldwide is
of cold store capacity. To make proper         are typically less efficient when operating                  set to overtake that for space heating by
use of just 10% of the cold store capacity,    at part load – which is most of the                          2060, and by the end of the century
he calculates the country needs to build       time. Defra projects that the average                        cooling will consume 60% more energy
30,000 new pack-houses with pre-cooling        British summer temperature is likely to                      than heating according to the Netherlands
facilities, and needs 60,000 refrigerated      rise 3C to 4C by the 2080s.75                                Environmental Assessment Agency.
trucks on the road at any one time.70
By extension, making proper use of all
of India’s cold storage capacity would
require 600,000 refrigerated trucks.
Taking a broader international perspective,
if India had the same ratio of refrigerated
vehicles to the value of its grocery market     Figure XX World forecast energy demand for space heating and space cooling
                                                World energy demand, exajoules
($375 billion in 2012) as Britain ($243
billion), it would have 129,000 refrigerated                                                                                                                50
vehicles, 18 times more than at present.71
And if it had the same ratio of refrigerated                                                                   Air conditioning
trucks to population as Britain, its fleet
                                                                                                                                                            40
would number more than 1.5 million.72
Either way, the growth potential is huge.

This headroom for growth exists across                                                                                                                      30
many forms of cooling, and the projected
growth rates are prodigious. If the current
and future demand for cooling services                                                                                                                      20
in developing countries were satisfied
using conventional technologies, however,
the environmental and health impacts
                                                                                                                                                            10
described in the sections above could
be enormous.
                                                                                                                     FORECAST

Climate change                                                                                                                                                0
As global temperatures continue to rise               1971           2000           2020          2040           2060           2080           2100
the demand for cooling is bound to
                                                Source: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The opinions stated include some forecasted views.
increase, even in developed countries          Figure  6: Worldwide
                                                We believe                 forecast
                                                            that we are basing         energyand
                                                                               our expectations  demand
                                                                                                     beliefs onfor space assumptions
                                                                                                                reasonable heating and       space
                                                                                                                                         within        cooling,
                                                                                                                                                 the bounds of what
where the cooling market might be              exajoules.
                                                we currently Source:     PBLthere
                                                             know. However,    Netherlands       Environmental
                                                                                   is no guarantee that any forecasts Assessment
                                                                                                                      or opinions will beAgency
                                                                                                                                          realized. 79
22   Doing Cold Smarter

     Feedback loops                                   Rising demand for (diesel powered)               high pressure to lower pressure pipelines.
     Cooling demand will also rise inexorably         Transport Refrigeration Units (TRUs)             LNG produces so much waste cold
     if we do not change course, as a result          and bus air conditioning can only                because natural gas producers such as
     of two feedback loops. One is obvious            worsen the heat island effect: adding            Qatar, Egypt and Australia liquefy natural
     and global: the more fossil fuel we burn         air conditioning to a double-decker              gas by cooling it to –162C in massive
     to keep ourselves and our food cool, the         bus in hot countries such as India               industrial liquefiers (known as ‘trains’
     more carbon we will emit, the hotter the         could raise its fuel consumption by              because they stretch up to a mile long)
     planet will become, and the more fossil          almost 50% according to one vehicle              in order to shrink the gas to a manageable
     fuel we will need to burn to keep cool.          manufacturer. The answer here is                 volume for transport by supertanker.
     For example, Saudi Arabia burned a               not electric vehicles, however, since            Once delivered to an import terminal in
     record 1 million barrels of oil per day          the cooling load in hot countries would          a consuming nation such as the UK, the
     to generate electricity in July 201480,          severely deplete the vehicle’s range.            LNG must be re-gasified before entering
     and more than 50% of Saudi summer                This suggests the need to develop                the pipeline network. Although the waste
     peak power demand is driven by air               cooling technologies that do not dump            heat of power generation plants is
     conditioning.81 This cycle clearly needs         their rejected heat into their immediate         sometimes used to warm the gas, import
     to be broken, both in the Kingdom and            environment, nor draw on the vehicle’s           terminals generally burn some of the gas
     more generally.                                  propulsion energy.                               to warm the remainder or use sea water as
                                                                                                       a source of heat. Either way, vast amounts
     The other feedback loop is less obvious          The potential of untapped                        of cold are lost to the environment.
     and more localised, and relates to the way       resources
     current cooling technologies contribute                                                           In Britain, if only half the cold thrown
     to the heat island effect. Cities create         While the environmental impacts of               away in this fashion could be recycled,
     heat islands because heat from the sun is        cooling are already heavy, and demand            it would amount to almost 20TWh of
     absorbed by tarmac and concrete, forcing         is projected to soar, there are also             ‘coolth’, or more than a fifth (22%) of
     cooling equipment to work harder. But            enormous waste resources that could              our current cooling demand, and save
     air conditioners reject heat into their local    be recycled to dramatically reduce the           around £1.3 billion in operating costs,
     environment, so raising temperatures and         damage caused by our cooling needs.              according to evidence from E4tech, the
     creating the need for yet more cooling.                                                           sustainable energy consultancy. On the
     In Phoenix, Arizona, for example, the            Waste cold                                       basis of projected LNG imports, the
     heat island effect has already raised            Vast amounts of cold of are lost to the          ‘recoverable’ waste cold in 2030 – half
     temperatures by over 4C, towards the             environment during the re-gasification of        the actual resource – could be 80TWh,
     upper end of the warming predicted for           Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) at import            almost matching today’s UK demand
     the entire planet through climate change.82      terminals, for example, and at gas ‘let          for cooling power.
     More generally, it has been estimated            down’ stations, where gas moves from
     that this effect is responsible for 5–10%
     of urban peak electricity use for air
     conditioning in US cities.83                                   90

                                                                    80
     Vehicle exhausts also dump heat into
     the environment, forcing both vehicle                          70
     and building air conditioners to work
     harder still. One study found that if                          60
                                                     Coolth (TWh)

     Beijing had switched from fossil fuel to                       50
     electric vehicles – which produce 80%
     less heat – during the summer of 2012,                         40
     temperatures in the city would have
                                                                    30
     been reduced by 1°C. This in turn
     would have cut electricity consumption                         20
     by 14.4GWh and CO2 emissions by
     11,800 tonnes per day.84                                       10

                                                                     0
                                                                         Current exploitable      2030 exploitable        Current estimated
                                                                            wasted cold             wasted cold            UK cold needs
     Figure 7: UK exploitable ‘wasted’ coolth and
     coolth demand. Source: E4tech/Dearman                                 Demand       Let-down stations     LNG terminals and peak shaving
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