Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops

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Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
Scenarios for
  Sustainable Lifestyles
  2050:
  From Global Champions to Local Loops

    2015		        2020				                   2030				                      2040					             2050

D4.1 Future Scenarios for New European Social Models with Visualisations          Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
About SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050                                        Contents
                                         Report Principal Authors: Juha Leppänen (Demos Helsinki), Aleksi Neuvonen
 Sustainable Lifestyles 2050                                                                                             What is SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050      3
                                         (Demos Helsinki), Maria Ritola (Demos Helsinki), Inka Ahola (Demos Helsinki),
                                         Sini Hirvonen (Demos Helsinki), Mika Hyötyläinen (Demos Helsinki), Tuuli         Unsustainable lifestyle impacts to be overcome
 Funding Scheme                          Kaskinen (Demos Helsinki), Tommi Kauppinen (Demos Helsinki), Outi Kuittinen      by 2050: Key findings of the project’s
                                         (Demos Helsinki), Kaisa Kärki (Demos Helsinki), Michael Lettenmeier (Demos
                                         Helsinki/D-mat), Roope Mokka (Demos Helsinki)                                    baseline research                              4
                                         With inputs from the project consortium and project advisors
                                                                                                                          Our scenarios on sustainable lifestyles        6
                                         Report Visualisation: Francois Jegou (Strategic Design Scenarios / Politec-
                                         nico di Milano), Adèle Seyrig (Strategic Design Scenarios), Marta Corubolo      The backcasting method                            7
                                         (Politecnico di Milano), Anna Meroni (Politecnico di Milano), Christophe          The sustainable lifestyle = 8000 kg per annum   8
                                         Gouache (Strategic Design Scenarios)
 Project Coordinator                                                                                                       Four scenarios, two critical uncertainties      10
                                         Report Layout: Kirmo Kivelä (Demos Helsinki)
                                                                                                                           How did we get here?                            12
                                         Project Coordinator:
                                         UNEP/Wuppertal Institute Collaborating
                                         Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP)                         Four scenarios to sustainable lifestyles 2012–2050
                                         Hagenauer Straße 30. 42107 Wuppertal. Germany                                     Singular Super Champions                       15
                                         Tel + 49 . 202 . 45 95 8 - 17
                                         Fax + 49 . 202 . 45 95 8 - 30
                                                                                                                           Governing the Commons                          25
 Project Consortium
                                         www.scp-centre.org                                                                Local Loops                                    35
                                         Cheryl Hicks, Project Director: cheryl.hicks@scp-centre.org                       Empathetic Communities                         45
                                         Nora Brüggemann, Project Manager: nora.brueggemann@scp-centre.org
                                         Project Consortium:                                                             Comparing four alternative scenarios
                                         Ashoka, Belgium and France
                                                                                                                         on sustainable lifestyles
                                         Demos Helsinki (Demos), Finland
                                         Ecoinstitut Barcelona (ECOI), Spain                                               Matrix on lifestyle differences in
                                         Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)                                   the four scenarios                              56
                                         EuroHealthNet
                                         Politecnico di Milano (Polimi), Italy                                             How did the SPREAD scenarios reach
                                         Regional Environmental Center for CEE countries (REC), Hungary                    lifestyles of 8000 kg material footprint?       58
                                         The International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics at Lund
                                         University (ULUND), Sweden
                                         The Northern Alliance for Sustainability (ANPED), Belgium                       Appendix A: SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles
                                                                                                                         2050 Delphi survey Questionnaires                 60
                                         EC Desk Officer:
                                         Perla Srour-Gandon, Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero                             Appendix B: SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles
                                         Duration: 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2012                                    2050 Counting Backwards Workshop                  62
                                         Funding scheme: European Commission’s Seventh Framework
                                                                                                                         References                                        63
                                         Programme (Coordination and Support Action):
                                         Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
                                         Budget: EU contribution 1,423,082 €
                                         Website: www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
                                         Online community: www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/community

2 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
What is SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050

SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 is a Euro-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     able lifestyles in 2050. This process will result in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  In recent years, we have witnessed the emer-
pean social platform project running from Janu-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   a roadmap for strategic action that will identify                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     gence of more sustainable products, services
ary 2011 to December 2012. Different societal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     opportunity spaces for policy, business, re-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          and experimental bottom-up initiatives. They
stakeholders – from business, research, policy                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    search and civil society to take action to enable                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     have signaled new hope that more sustainable
and civil society – have been invited to partici-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 more sustainable lifestyles across Europe.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ways of living are achievable for all, while cel-
pate in the development of a vision for sustain-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ebrating diversity, in post-industrial societies.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Despite these developments, existing promising
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        sustainable living practices are not enough. They
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        remain dwarfed by the unsustainable impacts of
How to spread sustainable lifestyles?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   the average European’s current lifestyles.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        To overcome the current challenges of our un-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Societal values,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               sustainable lifestyles, the SPREAD project has
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         overall paradigms,
Landscape level                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          megatrends                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     developed future scenarios of possible societies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        that support more sustainable ways of living.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Markets,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Markets,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Science,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Science,
Regime level                                                                                                                                                                                                           Policies                                                                                                                                                                           Markets,                                                                                                                                                                                               Policies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Science,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Policies

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Society

                                                                                                                                                                                            CLEAN MONEY

                                                                                                                                                                                            Embedding                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Up scaling
                                                                                                                                                                                            Andrea, 37-year-old, father of the 3 children family
                                                                                                                                                                                            “…taxes on personal income rose like mad to cover droughts
                                                                                                                                                                                            here and tsunamis there and catastrophes after silly
                                                                                                                                                                                            urbanization projects in mega-cities: now I prefer to earn less,
                                                                                                                                                                                            with green and fair investments but I want to know what my
                                                                                                                                                                                            money is used for and I want to be able to judge myself if the
                                                                                                                                                                                            projects financed will be good or not for the future of my kids…”

                                                                                                                                                                                            How does it work?                                                        Comments
                                                                                                                                                                                            • huge costs induced by bad sustainable management and
                                                                                                                                                                                              catastrophe related increases induce people to pay more and more
                                                                                                                                                                                              attention to what is done with their money;
                                                                                                                                                                                            • after many financial crises due to lack of investment regulations,
                        Moving
                                                                                                                                                                                              transparency is the norm that also benefits sustainable projects;

                HIGH-RISE VILLAGES
                                                                                                                                                                                            • sustainable responsibility, ethical wealth and fair banking criteria
                                                                                                                                                                                              is the norm on the financial market; investments are made only for
                                                                                                                                                                                              sustainable proposals.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Multiplying
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Consuming
                Misaku, 31, physician
                “…I am living in a high-rise village in the forest: it looks a bit like
                you’ve taken some blocks of Manhattan and settled them deep
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          URBAN FOOD
                in the forest in Cornwall. At the beginning I did into believe that
                this ‘zero density’ breathing zones planning would be respected.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          DISTRICT PLANNING
                Now I have the offer of a real city in terms of work opportunities                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Martha, 36, mother of a 3 children family
                and cultural life at a walking distance and surrounded by real                                                                                                                      Society
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          “…we have the chance to live in a city where the municipality
                woods or wheat fields. And I take the speed train if really I have
                                                                                                                                                                                            HOME HOSPITAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          has decided to introduce the food district planning initiative.
                to go to the next high-rise village...”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Our food mix must be at least nearly 50% locally produced
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          and 10% self-produced among neighbours: garlic is growing
                How does it work?                                                         Comments                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        on the balcony, cucumbers downstairs, tomatoes come from
                • densification of cities and new urbanization models limit mega cities                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   neighbours’ vegetable gardens, commuters bring fresh dairy
                  and urban sprawl;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       products from suburban areas into downtown. I still go to local
                                                                                                                                                                                            Gianna, 68-year-old, suburban inhabitant, retired
                • promotion of medium size dense urban environments with dense                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            supermarkets, once in a while I may buy some imported food…”

Niche level
                  public transport systems infrastructure inside the city and high-                                                                                                         “...going to hospital nowadays mostly means staying at home!
                  speed train connections between cities;                                                                                                                                   But at home I can meet the doctor on line and get the support of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          How does it work?
                • urban planning standards based on succession of high density                               Consuming                                                                      the neighborhood social care network.. I can be supported also
                  lodging and zero density green/leisure areas;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           • the mix of food production has changed: domestic production,              Comments
                                                                                                                                                                                            by a series of remote health measure devices, self-medication
                                                                                                     W.P.F.S. WISE PERSONAL
                • new architecture movements following ideas like ‘down town in the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Society                                                                       condominium urban farming areas, neighborhood, peri-urban and
                                                                                                                                                                                            appliances temporarily rented from the local health care center,
                  forest’ or ‘the high-rise/urban agriculture mix’...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       national production and some international importation
                • changing the relationship between parks and green areas within
                  urban planning as a pattern made of high-rise blocks and forests                   FOOD SHOPPER
                                                                                                                                                                                            and get advice from former patients from the neighborhood...”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CLEAN MONEY                                                                         • it is called urban food district planning. The city is now divided into
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            food districts that must be as self-sufficient as possible. Each food
                  blocks.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Moving                                                                                                                                                                district relies for a certain quota on self production of food and for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Society                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             the rest on local farms and producers.                                                       Living
                                                                                                     Elisa, 58-year-old, citizen                                                            How does it work?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Comments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ID-DNA CARD                                                                                                                                                                   LUXURY TAXI SERVICE                                                                                                                                                         • urban neighborhoods are twinned with peri-urban farms and food-
                                                                                                     “...I have just recovered from surgery and with the mix of drugs
                                                                                                     for after treatment I can only eat certain kinds of food... The
                                                                                                                                                                                            • going to public/private hospital is getting more and more expensive
                                                                                                                                                                                              and also carries the risk of contracting diseases when staying in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Andrea, 37-year-old, father of the 3 children family
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      “…taxes on personal income rose like mad to cover droughts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            hubs so that food production and consumption are related, mutual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            commitment and mutual responsibility.                                                REMOTE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • a well connected food supply chain is necessary, which can help
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 CO-WORKING SPACES
                                                                                                     hospital lease me a Wise Personal Food Shopper set to my                                 hospital;
                                                                                                                                                                                            • for non-emergencies, home hospital is the norm: staying at home                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         here and tsunamis there and catastrophes after silly                                  consumers get the closest resources and switch with a certain
                                                                                                     exact diet and it’s a relief when doing my shopping. I feel safe
                        Moving                                                                                                                                                                and supported by a series of remote health measure devices, rented                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      urbanization projects in mega-cities: now I prefer to earn less,                      flexibility;
                                                                                                     for observing my diet and with combined recipes suggested,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Cinthia, 45, prêt a porter stylist
                                                                                                                                                                                              self-medication appliances and neighborhood social care networks;                 Paolo, 9, primary school student                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      with green and fair investments but I want to know what my
                                                                                                     cooking lessons and information on food origins it’s also much                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Wang Yong, 24, agent in a call center
                URBAN MOBILITY OF                                                                    easier to achieve a sustainable diet. I think I will use it also after
                                                                                                     the end of the therapy as a guide in my daily life…”
                                                                                                                                                                                            • health care providers provide ongoing medical support at home and
                                                                                                                                                                                              remote treatment with appropriate technology;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                “...My mum says that when I was born, just before going home
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                from the hospital, she received my personal ID_DNA card. It is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              “..I love my work and I love to have and give all the best I can.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              I’m used to reaching clients and I love to be efficient and to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      money is used for and I want to be able to judge myself if the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      projects financed will be good or not for the future of my kids…”                                                                                                          “...where am I going to work today? It’s a question I ask myself
                                                                                                                                                                                            • ‘eHealth’ helps to increase public medical knowledge and                                                                                                                         Living
                GOODS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              spend with customers all the time needed to get in tune and in                                                                                                                                                                                                     nearly every morning: we have plenty of co-working options at
                                                                                                                                                                                              participation in treatment also reducing health costs;                            a very special Id card: it contains all the history of my family
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              order to establish a pleasant relationship. That’s why I usually                                                                                                                                                                                                   a walking distance in the area. I used to go to some of the work-
                                                                                                     How does it work?                                                           Comments
                                                                                                                                                                                            • especially chronic patients and elderly people can stay at home for
                                                                                                                                                                                              longer.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and it will contain also my history. So when I will need some
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                medicines, the doctors will already know everything and they                           LIFE-LONG                                                                              move around the city by the Luxury taxi service, it is brilliant!                                                                                                                   Consuming                                                                      cafés when I started my first job: a messy environment, lots of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              My provider offers the service included in the business mobile                                                                                                                                                                                                     people to meet! Now I prefer to cycle tol the park to change
                Tanja, 29, single mother of two children
                “…normally get our weekly veggie box delivered to our home,
                                                                                                     • the Wise Personal Food Shopper system can analyze user’s genetic
                                                                                                       data and fit a healthy diet to his/her food choices;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                will build a special therapy just for me...”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       SUSTAINABILITY LEARNING                                                                account: automatic supercars without drivers bring you
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              everywhere according to personalized paths that you can plan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      How does it work?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • huge costs induced by bad sustainable management and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Comments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          FOOD FACILITY                                                                          atmosphere or stay on the first floor of the condominium where
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 my old mum lives 2 blocks away...”
                I just take a little trolley from the corner station and take it                     • the system can be accessed from any portable device in every food
                                                                                                       retail place and restaurant;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Arold, 44 years old, primary school coach                                              and redefine along the way…”                                                              catastrophe related increases induce people to pay more and more
                back to the station just below the house; but today, given all                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          attention to what is done with their money;
                                                                                                     • the device displays properties of food the user would like to eat or                                                                                                                                                                                            “...kids no longer rely only on schools for their education:
                the shopping for the party, we need at least a cargo-trolley, the                      purchase; includes it in the diet balance; shows quantity needed/                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      How does it work?                                                        Comments       • after many financial crises due to lack of investment regulations,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                How does it work?                                                           Comments   the layer of IT embedded in our daily life is providing a very
                same as we used to move grandma from her former flat to the                            allowed;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               • automatic cars without driver;                                                          transparency is the norm that also benefits sustainable projects;                                                                                                        How does it work?                                                         Comments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • personalisation of medicines is nowadays a standard practice;                        responsive and diffused didactic environment for them and                                                                                                                      • sustainable responsibility, ethical wealth and fair banking criteria              Eduardo, 41, designer, single parent with a daughter
                room near where we live now…”                                                        • it helps to make smart and right purchase choices, to raise individual                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 • dedicated online and mobile application for fully personalized path;                                                                                                                                                                                             • jobs are designed as far as possible to allow remote working and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • everybody has a personal ID_DNA card that contains: their genetic                    sustainability issues are present everywhere in the day-to-day                                                                                                                   is the norm on the financial market; investments are made only for                “...tortillas are the only food I’m really quite good at and,
                                                                                                       awareness of responsible diet, consume less high-calorie food, more                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • market-based service: partnership between telecommunications                                                                                                                                                                                                       reduce commuting in cities;
                                                                                                       local food, organic food… and enhance sustainable lifestyles…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  map and biological data, but also their daily diet, their habits, their              environment, from the energy smart meter display at home to                              companies, private taxis and local transport companies                                  sustainable proposals.                                                            luckily, they are quite versatile. Today I have prepared stewed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  sporting aptitude and the history of their family;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             • neighbourhoods are equipped with different types of distant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       the water harvesting control system in the neighborhood, from                                                                                                                                                                                                      vegetables as filling and …voilà.. a perfect dish!.. Philip
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • every doctor or specialist has access to it in order to get a complete                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           working facilities;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       the intermodal mobility organizer to the distributed air quality                                                                                                                                                                                                   prepared the salad, and Maria the dessert. A full dinner is finally                    • socialization is a mix of local and remote connections with distant
                How does it work?                                                         Comments                                                                                                                                                                                overview of the patient’ life;                                                       control scheme...Everything works for them just like a reward-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • the card enables full personalisation of medicines and healing                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ready for me and my little Jody: I just need to pick it up from the                      working partners and neighbours employed by different companies;
                • urban planning towards less car accessible neighborhoods, mixed                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      based game to play.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               food facility and lay the table.”                                                      • where you work is more and more perceived as completely detached

                                                                                                                                                                            Promising
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  solutions, combining pharmaceutical and social remedies.
                  living and commercial zones enabling more walking and cycling;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   from who you work for;
                • development of renting schemes for different sized trolleys for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      How does it work?                                                           Comments                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • people enjoy changing social/physical environments especially for
                  the transportation of goods by pedestrians, from simple weekly                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   boring tasks.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • striving to steer general behaviour towards sustainable lifestyles
                  shopping to second hand furniture exchange or moving home at                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           constitutes a diffused dynamic context providing learning
                                                                                                             Consuming
                  walking distance;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      opportunities at any moment in daily living;                                                                                                                                                                                                                     How does it work?                                                           Comments
                • parking stations, where trolleys can be rented for transport and
                                                                                                     THE MEAT FEAST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • the system works by rewarding good behaviour                                                                                                                                         Society                                                                     • collective kitchens open to food-group members are diffused all
                  returned, are available in all superblocks in the city.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • pervasive IT in products and augmented environments provides                                                                                                                                                                                                       around the city. Food facilities are in fact services that allow people
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         feedback to stimulate sustainable living, which plays as a teaching
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      HOME HOSPITAL                                                                         to save time in preparing food while increasing the quality of food

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Promising
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         environment that changes according to age and situation;                                                                                                                                                                                                           prepared;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • distance learning, using more traditional forms of education, enables                        Moving                                                                                                                                                              • every food facility gathers a food group that agrees on a weekly food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Society                                                                          still open questions to be answered and integrates all the knowledge                                                                                                                                                                                               scheme: each member is in charge of preparing a specific course of a                         Living
                                                                                                     Lily, 10 year old, primary school girl, describing Sunday meat                                                                                                                                                                                                      in the student portfolio;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              MULTI-SITS PEDAL                                                                                                                                                              meal, and cooks it for all the members. In return he/she receives the

                                                                                                                                                                             practice
                                                                                                     feast at grandma’s place                                                                                                                                                   SELF EMPOWERMENT                                                                       • this learning process starts with primary education and goes on for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         life.                                                                                                                                                                        Gianna, 68-year-old, suburban inhabitant, retired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            portions of the other courses prepared by the other members.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ACTIVE FARMING CLASSES
                                                                                                     “…all the family gathers together in grandma’s house on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CIRCLES                                                                                                                                                                       VEHICLES                                                                                “...going to hospital nowadays mostly means staying at home!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      But at home I can meet the doctor on line and get the support of
                                                                                                     Sunday morning, to celebrate the meat feast. Grandma cooks
                                                                                                     some traditional meat dishes that I don’t eat so often... Usually                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the neighborhood social care network.. I can be supported also
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Fabio, 5 years old, disabled child                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Ivan, 15-year-old, middle school student
                                                                                                     at home we do not eat meat and at school we have a green-                                                                                                                  Li, 25                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                by a series of remote health measure devices, self-medication
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              “…I hurt myself playing and I have my leg in plaster. Every                                                                                                                                                                                                        “…In our school there is a vegetable garden where I’ve
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      appliances temporarily rented from the local health care center,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Promising
                                                                                                     vegetable canteen... It is good to enjoy some meat once in a                                                                                                               “I moved yesterday, everything seems fresh to me, sadly again,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   been attending farming class since primary school, and I’ve
                                                                                                     while. I’ll try not to eat too much today...”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            morning, when I go to school with my school-mates they ride                             and get advice from former patients from the neighborhood...”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                my desk lamp was broken this morning, I should change the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      practice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Living                                                                         the pedal vehicle as usual producing a lot of energy, while I’m                                                                                                                                                                                                    always done very well. I know lots of local crops and farming
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                light bulb immediately, come on, I still have commitments to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     knowledge. The teachers teach us how to plant and harvest, we
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              sitting in the seats without pedals near Miss Marple, the old
                                                                                                     How does it work?                                                           Comments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                fulfill before tomorrow. Where can I buy a bulb nearby? I joined
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the community network when I moved here. Maybe I can ask for                           SUSTAINABLE                                                                            neighbour with that strange smell…I’m looking forward to                                                                                                                                                                                                           have regular farming work in the vegetable garden, and our
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 generation feels therefore perfectly comfortable with taking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              going riding!... ”                                                                      How does it work?
                                                                                                     • meat once a week in a vegetarian diet is the norm;
                                                                                                     • the weekly meat feast, Sunday is the celebration day for meat, feasts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                help there …”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       COMPANIONSHIP                                                                                                                                                                  • going to public/private hospital is getting more and more expensive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Comments                                                                                          part in urban farming to produce on the spot part of the fruits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 and veggies we consume...”
                                                                                                       are organized at home;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           and also carries the risk of contracting diseases when staying in
                                                                                                     • meat is getting more expensive, so it is actually a pleasure and luxury                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          hospital;
                                                                                                       that can be afforded only once a week;                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jenny, 9 year old, primary school pupil                                                                                                                                        • for non-emergencies, home hospital is the norm: staying at home
                                                                                                     • a low-animal protein diet has been promoted by both governments                                                                                                                                                                                                 “...The curriculum for sustainable education in our school is                          How does it work?                                                        Comments         and supported by a series of remote health measure devices, rented
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                How does it work?                                                           Comments
                                                                                                       and social communities due to food crisis, economic reasons and                                                                                                                                                                                                 based on 25 micro-internships per year consisting in day or half-                      • multi-sits pedal-powered school bus and transport services with                         self-medication appliances and neighborhood social care networks;                                                                                                        How does it work?                                                         Comments

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        practice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • find help from those around you: who is where and available to do                                                                                                                                                                                                   • health care providers provide ongoing medical support at home and
                                                                                                       necessary shift to more sustainable food consumption.                                                                                                                                                                                                           day trips to organic farms, re-design and recycling companies,                           different seats and rates for the neighborhood;                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • sustainable active education goes through the normal education
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  what;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 remote treatment with appropriate technology;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       new traditional craftsman workshops, wild life protection                              • clean energy production for transportation;                                                                                                                                                                                                                        circle, activity based learning projects have become part of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • local bounds are strengthened by means of communication tools,                                                                                                                                                                                                      • ‘eHealth’ helps to increase public medical knowledge and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       projects, humanitarian programs... where we get in touch and                           • eco-minded school bus and educational aspect of the service                                                                                                                                                                                                        formal education method;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  intelligent sensors and geo-localization devices;                                                                                                                                                                                                                     participation in treatment also reducing health costs;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (strengthening awareness).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • •farming classes and other basic knowledge around sustainable food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • activate instant support and close help in case of need;                             learn the basics about growing food, providing goods and                                                                                                                       • especially chronic patients and elderly people can stay at home for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • district personal networks are established.                                          service, self-production, nature preservation…”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             are mandatory at every education level to prepare aware citizens able
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        longer.                                                                                                                                                                    to take part actively in co-production of the food they will eat;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 • the classroom is no longer the only place to learn. School campuses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   are developed with farming, food transformation and preparation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       How does it work?                                                           Comments                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        facilities;

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 • school canteens are supplied with vegetables cultivated in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • sustainability education is embedded in daily living in the form of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ls 2 00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   garden.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         active education, project based learning...;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • friendly periods spent in contact with the real world form the basis of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ‘learning for life’ education;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • ‘learning for life’, meaning acquiring basic knowledge on natural
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         cycles, bio-diversity, regeneration processes, self-production...
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         takes place on the field, in contact with communities, families,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Ge e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         professionals...;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • many public and private institutions dealing with sustainable issues
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         provide basic education on top of their main activities.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Based on

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops   |3
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
Unsustainable lifestyle impacts          The SPREAD project’s journey to future sce-
                                         narios for more sustainable lifestyles began by
                                         taking stock of existing knowledge on sustain-

to be overcome by 2050:                  able lifestyles. Through this initial research we
                                         identified the challenges and barriers to more

Key findings of the project’s
                                         sustainable living today, as well as promising
                                         trends, drivers and opportunities to encourage
                                         more sustainable ways of living in the future.

baseline research
                                         The results of this baseline research can be
                                         found in our project report, “Sustainable Life-
                                         styles: Today’s Facts and Tomorrow’s Trends”.

                                         Modern European lifestyles are unsustainable.
                                         They have become associated with overproduc-
                                         tion and overconsumption. The impacts of our
                                         lifestyles are putting too much pressure on our
                                         natural resources and have adverse environmen-
                                         tal, economic, social and health effects.

                                         The report reveals that lifestyle and household
                                         consumption form a significant part of society’s
                                         environmental burden as a whole. In recent
                                         years, sustainable lifestyle choices have started
                                         to become a more relevant and accessible op-
                                         tion for some European consumers thanks to a
                                         rise in localised social innovation experiments,
                                         the improved supply of eco-efficient goods and
                                         services, and increased coverage of sustainabil-
                                         ity issues in the media raising awareness in the
                                         public debate. We call these signals of progress,

4 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
“promising practices” of more sustainable living                              •     Food and drink, private transport and hous-

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Moving
practices, and they form a good foundation for                                      ing together account for 70-80% of Europe’s
exploring the future of sustainable lifestyles.                                     environmental impacts stemming from final
                                                                                    consumption (Tukker, A., G. Huppes, et al.
SPREADing sustainable lifestyles in the future will                                 (2006)).
require, on the one hand, a deeper understanding
of how to scale up current promising practices.                               •     Meat and dairy consumption alone account
On the other, we need to know how far these                                         for almost one quarter (24%) of all final con-
practices will take us towards sustainable living                                   sumption impacts – by far the largest share

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Living
for all, and what kinds of new creative solutions,                                  in the food and drink sector (Weidema et al.
currently unknown or “unthinkable”, might get us                                    2008).
there.
                                                                              •     Domestic heating, water consumption, appli-
Our research suggests that in order to make                                         ance and electronics use accounts for 40%
progress in these areas, that focus should be                                       of Europe’s total energy consumption (with

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Consuming
placed on strategies to assist, motivate and                                        heating alone accounting for 67% of house-
inspire behavioural change, as well as the role                                     hold energy consumption in the EU-27) (EEA
of infrastructure and enabling sustainable living                                   2010).
environments.
                                                                              •     Car ownership in the EU-27 increased by
The scenarios for sustainable lifestyles 2050                                       more than one third (35%) in the period
present four different prototypes of possible                                       between 1990 and 2007 (EEA 2010) and EU
future societies that all support more sustainable                                  drivers currently own one third of the world’s
lifestyles. Our lifestyle scenarios are based on the                                750 million cars (IEA 2010).
foundations of sustainable systems, and explore
different options in an attempt to acknowledge                                •     In the EU-27, approximately 60% of adults

                                                                                                                                                                                                Society
the diversity among European citizens.                                              and over 20% of school-age children are
                                                                                    overweight or obese. Coronary heart diseases
The critical impacts of current European                                            (CHD) often associated with fatty foods and
lifestyles are:                                                                     smoking, remain the single most common
                                                                                    cause of death in the EU (WHO 2011).

Reference: For more information, please read the full SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 baseline report, available to download from www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu.

                                                                                                                                       Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops   |5
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
Our scenarios on sustainable lifestyles
The SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 pro-             identify system boundaries such as, geopolitics,                    1. Our scenarios aim to demonstrate how
ject uses a scenario methodology to explore             national politics, or technology related to each                       various situational and behavioural factors
the diverse ways for potential lifestyle patterns       future scenario. It is clear that these factors have                   contribute to the development of sustainable
to evolve, and how this evolution can overcome          immense direct and indirect influence on life-                         lifestyles. Scenarios form a powerful tool for
current harmful environmental and social life-          styles. However, here they are dealt with only to                      translating how megatrends, such as climate
style impacts. Our sustainable lifestyle scenarios      the extent that they directly explain changes in                       change, rapid technological advancements,
are stories of possible futures where societies         lifestyle patterns.                                                    and changing demographic patterns could
support more sustainable ways of living. The                                                                                   change our everyday lives and the decisions
scenarios present different options for sustaina-       We have chosen a specific scenario methodol-                           we make concerning how we live, move and
ble living choices that will suit the diverse needs,    ogy to explore different options for new European                      consume in the future.
desires and cultural considerations of citizens         social models that encourage sustainable life-
from across Europe. The four scenarios present          styles in 2050. We further outline our methodol-                    2. Our scenarios enable us to analyse the
differing pathways to reach alternative societies       ogy here:                                                              potential of current promising sustainable liv-
where sustainable ways of living are supported.                                                                                ing practice in relation to the various factors

Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts but
instead seek to explore the most extreme pos-
sibilities, in order to help decision-makers plan for                     Situational and behavioural factors influencing human behaviour
the currently “unthinkable”. In order to develop
stories of the future, we first identified the most                                                                                                     Experience

                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: Defra, Sustainable Lifestyles Framework, 2011.
critical variables – the critical drivers necessary
                                                                               Culture                                                                               Attitudes
to create sustainable lifestyles. Some of the                                                               Environmental
                                                                                                                                                Norms
elements of our scenario stories might sound                Infrastructure          Geography
                                                                                                               change
                                                                                                                                      Beliefs                            Habits
improbable at first. The aim of our scenarios is to
help think the unthinkable and plan for sustain-        Social Networks                                                                                                      Values
able options in the future.                                                     Situational factors       Influencing human        Behavioural factors
                                                                                                               behaviour                                                Self-efficacy
                                                          Institutional
The focus of our scenarios lies primarily on              Framework                                                                                                Awareness
people’s lifestyles. As people live within a soci-                                            Social Learning         Leadership
ety, and within global and local systems, we also                 Access to                                                                                 Perceptions
                                                                   Capital                                                     Knowledge
                                                                                         Information
                                                                                                                                                        Altruism
                                                                                                                                   Identity

6 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
The backcasting method
    driving alternative sustainable                                                                        In order to establish four sustainable lifestyle scenarios
    futures. Through scenarios                                                                             for Europe in 2050, we have used a methodology called
                                        Usual future perspective
    we aim to explore the ways in                                                                          backcasting. The backcasting method allows us to ad-
    which promising niche strate-                                                                          dress the risk that starting from the present may lead to
    gies for more sustainable living                 Space of opportunities                                concentrating on challenges that are irrelevant for the
    could grow into widespread                                                                             future we aim to achieve.
    practices that have the po-
    tential to decrease the overall                                                                        Backcasting helps us to set our compasses towards
    environmental stress on our                                                                            sustainable futures by defining sustainable lifestyles,
    societies.                                                                                             and their elements, as fixed variable goals. This norma-
                                                                                                           tive goal as a starting point for the scenarios helps us
3. Our scenarios provide a start-                                                                          to see the discrepancies between current realities and
   ing point for identifying oppor-                                                                        desirable futures, but also helps us to understand, where
   tunity spaces for the develop-                                                                          disruptive changes are most needed. Backcasting ex-
   ment of creative strategies to         Now                                             2050             plores alternative pathways to successfully reaching the
   not only mainstream current               Cylinder model of constructing possible future scenarios
                                                                                                           desired future goals.
   sustainable practices, but also
   to develop new solutions for                                                                            Our premise is that there are factors that set limits to
   more sustainable living so-                                                                             meaningful future living such as:
                                        Future perspective with system boundaries
   cieties. The scenarios offer                                                                            •    limited global crude oil reserves that force produc-
   insights into how different driv-                                                                            tion to decline at some point (peak oil)
   ers of change interact, shape                       Spa
                                                          ce of                         Core               •    a limited “carbon budget” of greenhouse gas
   lifestyles and help in identifying                           opport
                                                                      unities           vision                  concentration in the atmosphere
   the role of various gatekeep-
   ers who facilitate the change
   through scaling up and multi-                                                                           Exceeding these or other relevant limits would cre-
   plying the current, promising                                                                           ate feedback effects that would very likely reduce the
   practices on different stages of                            Carbon budget                               resources and capabilities available to people living in
   development.                                             Peak oil                                       the coming decades. Hence the scope of desirable, but
                                                                                                           achievable futures would also be more limited in the fu-
                                          Now                                             2050             ture. To generate future lifestyle scenarios that are rele-
                                                                                                           vant and robust, it is imperative to recognize these limits.
                                         Cone model of constructing meaningful future scenarios

                                                                                                  Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops   |7
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
The sustainable lifestyle = 8000 kg per annum

In order to create scenarios for sustainable life-    tion processes behind them (i.e. in the areas of        footprint thus serves as a tool to comprehensively
styles in 2050, we need definitions and common        consuming, moving, housing and health). In this         direct lifestyles to levels within planetary bounda-
targets to specify what is meant by ”sustainable      context, our sustainable lifestyle material footprint   ries as described e.g. by Johan Rockström and
lifestyles”. In the SPREAD project we have de-        means the use of renewable and non-renewable            other scientists (see below). It also provides a way
fined the material footprint of a sustainable life-   material resources (excl. water and air) plus the       to measure progress and milestones of success
style at 8000 kg per annum (p.a.) for one person.     erosion caused by agriculture and forestry. It cov-     towards our future sustainable lifestyle goals.
This quantified target forms the fundamental          ers the whole lifecycle from the extraction of raw
assumption on which each of our four developed        materials to the processing industry, distribution,     The material footprint of 8000 kg p.a. consists
and previously described scenarios is built. Our      consumption, recycling, and disposal.                   of household goods, food and beverages, eve-
scenarios describe what ­8 000 kg living can look                                                             ryday mobility and tourism, electricity, heating
like in four diverse future societies.                The idea of the material footprint is to provide        and housing. However, the composition of the
                                                      a comprehensive and understandable tool to              footprint is not similar for everyone. The share of
The 8000 kg p.a. of material footprint per person     reduce different kinds of present and future envi-      consumption in a material footprint of 8000 kg
is based on the work of Michael Lettenmeier,          ronmental challenges (for example in the areas of       p.a. can differ based on the values, needs and
Stefan Bringezu, Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek et al        food, mobility, housing and health).                    aspirations of each person’s unique lifestyle. For
from the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environ-                                                            example, some people may accumulate more of
ment and Energy on a safe and sustainable level       When the material footprint of an average Eu-           their footprint through mobility while others move
of natural resource use.                              ropean lifestyle drops from 27000 – 40 000 (ap-         less, but live in a larger apartment. Not everyone
                                                      proximate current average lifestyle footprint per       needs to live the same way, but – at least on aver-
The material footprint is a tool to measure and       person) to 8000 kg per year, the environmental          age – everyone must live within boundaries of our
manage or optimize the resource consumption of        and resulting social impacts of our lifestyles will     planetary system in order to realize our sustain-
our lifestyles, including the products and produc-    drop and change considerably. The material              able future.

8 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
Environmental and social      1. Environmental boundaries                                          2. Social boundaries
indicators included in        We draw on the planetary boundaries frame-                           We use population growth and human develop-
the 8000 kg p.a. lifestyle:   work developed by a group of earth system and                        ment indices based on statistics and research by
                              environmental scientists led by Johan Rockström                      UNDP and UN Population Division. These social
                              from the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Due to the                     system boundaries (the goals for 2050) are the
                              complexity of quantifying these planetary bound-                     minimum requirements for socially sustainable
                              aries, we only included six of the original nine in                  development. The material footprint boundary of
                              the background considerations for the scenarios.                     8000 kg p.a. for one person’s lifestyle is based on
                              As the quantification of the indicators used by                      the worldwide recognition of these social system
                              Rockström’s group on a lifestyle level would have                    boundaries.
                              been extremely complex, we used the material
                              footprint (see above) as an indicator for the vari-
                              ous kinds of environmental impacts caused by
                              any kind of material and energy use.

                              Environmental boundaries                                             Social boundaries
                                                                       Current    Boundary                                             Current
                                     Earth-system process                                              Human development                             Goal 2050
                                                                        value       value                                               Value
                                               Climate change                                         Human Developed Index
                                  Atmospheric carbon dioxide             387          350           (measure of life expectancy,
                               concentration (ppm by volume)                                                                            0,63             0,77
                                                                                                          literacy, education and
                                              Biodiversity loss                                                standards of living)
                                     Extinction rate (number of         >100           10            Years of education in less
                                   species per million per year)                                            developed countries           6                8
                                                   Biochemical                                                     (average years)
                                        Anthropogenic nitrogen                                                   Life expectancy
                                                                         121           35                                                70              >75
                                removed from the atmosphere                                                       (global average)
                                   (millions of tonnes per year)                                                 GINI coefficient
                                                       Land use                                       (Measure of the inequality:
                                    Land surface converted to           11,7           15              a value 0 expressing total        0,7             0,55
                                             cropland (percent)                                             equality and a value 1
                                                    Fresh water                                               maximal inequality.)
                                   Global human consumption             2600         4000                      Global population
                                                of water (km3/yr)                                                                         7               8,9
                                                                                                                           (billion)
                                                    Ozone layer
                                           Stratospheric ozone           283          276
                                  concentration (Dobson units)

                              Reference: Rockström J. et all. (2011)                                Reference: UNDP (2011)

                                                                                 Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops   |9
Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops
Four scenarios, two critical uncertainties
In order to establish four scenarios that would
                                                                                           Pandemic technology
significantly differ from each other, we defined                       Globally there are a few dominant technologies for any task or human
                                                                       need. Technologies for building, transportation, energy production,
at the outset four future landscapes through
                                                                       and communication exist everywhere and look similar. There’s fierce
which the scenarios would be constructed.                              competition on the global markets and commercial dominance yields
                                                                       huge rewards. Technology in 2011 could be called pandemic. Every-
This was done by combining the two critical vari-                      one’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manu-
ables, which we call uncertainties. We use these                       facturers) that runs on petrol or diesel fuel (globally exchanged goods).
uncertainties to define lifestyles and societies.
The two uncertainties and assumptions about                                                                                     Human-centrism
them underlining our work were that:
                                                                        Meritocracy                                             A human-centric society pivots around
                                                                                                                                widening the use of human capital in all
•   Technology is either pandemic or endemic.         A meritocratic society circles around                                     its forms. Both civic and public use of
                                                         professional skills. The most com-                                     skills is valued. Everyone has something
•   Society’s governing principle is either human-     mercially valuable professional skills                                   valuable to give or to do. Society’s suc-
    centric or meritocratic.                               are the engines of the economy.                                      cess depends on everyone contributing
                                                         Members of those professions are                                       and on everyone’s ability to be good
By combining these two sets of alternatives, we       paid accordingly. Policies and struc-                                     citizens, family members, neighbours
reached our four possible future landscapes. The      tures are customized to facilitate the                                    and professionals. There is some divi-
following are descriptions of what these future          work of the leading industries and                                     sion of labour, but self-improvement
                                                        professions. Division of labour is at                                   through leisure is also very much appre-
landscapes would look like on the societal level.     its extreme. You do only what you’re                                      ciated: e.g. through family time, active
                                                                               really good at.                                  consumption, civic activities, handicraft,
These two critical uncertainties defined the main                                                                               arts. You do what you can – and what
drivers shaping the scenarios and the scenario                                                                                  you feel motivated to do.
process. At later stage of the work we defined
four additional drivers for each scenario. With the                                         Endemic technology
help of these drivers we were able to give a rea-
                                                                       The tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown
sonable explanation on how sustainable lifestyles                      locally: technology emerges out of local conditions, resources, and
and the sustainable society can be reached in                          peculiarities. Local living conditions rule technology. Where there is
each scenario.                                                         wood, houses are built of timber – where the days are extremely hot,
                                                                       people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is
                                                                       wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by ef-
                                                                         ficiency and innovations gained through thinking and acting locally.

10 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
Pandemic technology

                  Singular                          Governing
              Super Champions                     the Commons

Meritocracy                                                                                Human-centrism

               Local Loops                          Empathetic
                                                   Communities

                             Endemic technology

                                             Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops   | 11
How did we get here?
The development of future scenarios for more          Phase One:                                             Phase two:
sustainable lifestyles in 2050 builds on all previ-   Defining the scenario framework                        Defining four scenario landscapes
ous work in the project. The research conducted
on critical lifestyle impacts as well as the barri-   The development of our scenario framework              Based on the analysis of the research and
ers and drivers impeding and encouraging more         included the analysis of the project’s baseline re-    the survey, we were able to define two critical
sustainable ways of living provide a solid basis      search and identification of promising practice on     variables or uncertainties that we combined to
for creating pathways towards possible futures        sustainable lifestyles, as well as further input and   produce four alternative future landscapes. We
where these challenges can be overcome and            analysis from a crosscutting group of relevant         did this using the principles of systems thinking,
opportunities for improved living realised.           stakeholders and experts.                              which helped us map the relevant situational and
                                                                                                             behavioural factors influencing human behaviour.
                                                      In November 2011, following the baseline re-
                                                      search, a selective Delphi Survey was conducted        The two critical uncertainties are technology and
Sustainable lifestyle                                 amongst a crosscutting group of relevant stake-        a society’s governing principle. We were able to
scenarios 2050 – the “making of”                      holders and experts. The survey aimed at finding       divide technology into either pandemic or endem-
                                                      a feasible framework for the backcasting work-         ic, and the governing principle of the society into
The creation of alternative futures for sustainable   shop. The survey questionnaire was formulated          either meritocratic or human-centred. By combin-
lifestyles to as far as 2050 was completed in five    based on the findings of the SPREAD baseline           ing these uncertainties, we created the scenario
phases.                                               report, the SPREAD launch conference report            quadrants. These were elaborated into four alter-
                                                      and promising practices cards from the SPREAD          native future landscapes, which formed the basis
1. Defining the framework (axes of critical un-
                                                      Visioning workshop. Around 40 people out of 110        for our work in the backcasting workshop.
   certainties) for the creation of the scenario
                                                      invited responded to the survey.
   quadrants: Baseline research and findings of
   the SPREAD Delphi survey of expert views.
                                                      The survey questionnaire included a formulation        Phase three:
2. Defining four scenario landscapes.                 of assumptions or “arguments” that participants
3. Exploring the pathways to sustainable living:      were asked to evaluate (based on assumptions           Exploring the pathways to sus-
   Backcasting workshop in Tuusula, Finland.          probability, desirability and importance) and com-     tainable living: Backcasting work-
4. Qualifying and quantifying the scenarios and
                                                      ment (explaining what drivers would cause an           shop in Tuusula, Finland
                                                      assumption to be realised or fail to be realised).
   pathways: Research & 2nd Delphi survey.            Instead of asking for comments on current trends,      The ”Counting backwards workshop” was held
5. Finalising the scenario stories and visualisa-     the respondents were requested to describe             on the 24-25th of November 2011 in Tuusula,
   tions.                                             things they see in place in 2050, in a world where     Finland. There, four alternative scenario pathways
                                                      sustainable lifestyles are the norm across Europe.     from 2012 to 2050 were created with the help of

12 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
54 participants from 16 countries, representing          Phase four:                                                Phase five:
stakeholder groups from start-up businesses to           Qualifying and quantifying the                             Finalising the scenario stories
governments, multinational companies, NGOs,
researchers, entrepreneurs, designers and
                                                         scenarios and pathways:                                    and visualisations
independent policy experts. These participants           Research & Delphi survey                                   In the final phase, the scenarios were advanced
were divided into four groups and each defined                                                                      to final stories and visualisations to show what
an alternative scenario narrative and pathways           To qualify the scenario stories and pathways for-          sustainable lifestyles in 2050 could look like were
to sustainable lifestyles in Europe between 2012         mulated in phase three, a second Delphi survey,            created. At this stage, the scenarios were further
and 2050.                                                with stakeholders and experts, was conducted.              elaborated on to make the differences in each
                                                         The aim of the second survey was to gather                 alternative future society explicit with the identifi-
In the workshop the backcasting method was               additional assumptions and arguments for each              cation of four drivers of change for each scenario.
used to explore the pathways to more sustaina-           scenario. Respondents were asked to comment                Further focus was put on defining what life is like
ble living and to further define each alternative fu-    from the perspective of his or her expertise.              for different people in each scenario and how
ture scenario. Starting with the alternative future      Survey results were fed into a revised draft of the        environmental and social changes have impacted
landscapes created in phase two, participants            scenarios.                                                 their lives, or become catalysts for behaviour
“counted backwards” from the 2050 futures to                                                                        change.
today. Each group was challenged to co-create            The scenario drafts were further tested and
the pathways to their alternative future where           quantified through the SPREAD People’s Forum,
sustainable 8 000 kg lifestyles are societal norms       which we call “iFuture”. iFuture enabled us to
– What would have to have happened 2040, 2025            explore the scenarios with “real people” from
and 2015 in order to reach different 8 000 kg life-      across Europe, with focus groups assembled
styles in this scenario? Special focus was put on        in four European countries from January-March
critical lifestyle impact issues (e.g. food, mobility,   2012 (Finland, Germany, Hungary and Spain). In
housing and health) as well as drivers of lifestyle      the iFuture workshops the SPREAD project was
choices, such as enabling infrastructure and be-         able to connect the scenario stories to peo-
havior change strategies that were highlighted in        ples’ real assumptions, aspirations and ideas
the SPREAD baseline research.                            about “the good life” and their own sustainable
                                                         lifestyles, where the size of individual material
                                                         footprints do not exceed 8 000 kg p.a.

                                                                                               Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops   | 13
Four scenarios to
                   sustainable lifestyles
                       2012–2050
14 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
Singular Super Champions
             Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops   | 15
Pandemic technology

                                                                                An ageing Europe receives a transformative and        Big investments paid off: Scientific breakthroughs
                  Singular
              Super Champions
                                                   Governing
                                                 the Commons
                                                                                rejuvenating spark, in order to survive as China      in material technology made the up-cycling of

                                                               Human-centrism
                                                                                began its strides towards gaining total global        raw materials profitable. Firms in the cradle to
Meritocracy

                                                                                dominance in cleantech markets at the start of        cradle business started to make solid profits in
                                                                                the 2010 decade. At almost the last moment, in        the latter half of 2020’s. Access to the consump-
                                                                                2015, the EU wagered all of its political power       tion cycle and what was previously called waste
                Local Loops                       Empathetic
                                                 Communities
                                                                                and public resources to force companies and           became the key determinant of success to the
                                Endemic technology
                                                                                consumers into the era of a new industrial revo-      large multinational firms. New service and dis-
                                                                                lution. Developing new materials and bringing         tribution models were created. They put new

 Singular Super                                                                 about a revolution in production technologies
                                                                                comes about through incentives and political
                                                                                                                                      emphasis on building lasting relationships with
                                                                                                                                      customers. This was the only way to make the

 Champions
                                                                                measures. European nations agree to remove all        valuable resources stored in material products
                                                                                subsidies from industries operating with inef-        return to production. Consumers experienced this
                                                                                ficient legacy technologies in the energy and         through services that equipped them constantly
                                                                                resource intensive fields. All available budget in    with up-to-date models of the goods they have
                                                                                the member states is invested in massive R&D          once bought access to. For some, these techno-
                                                                                centres, demonstration projects and especially in     logically driven lifestyle goods compensated and
 Alternative Sustainable Society 1:                                             education.                                            replaced their past needs for spacious single-
 Supporting 8 000 kg Sustainable                                                                                                      family houses and modestly priced cars.
 Lifestyles                                                                     This was not a pain-free road to success. Revo-
                                                                                lutionising technologically and ecologically out-     Singular Super Champions is a society in which
 In the scenario Singular Super Champions Eu-                                   dated production processes, as well as, cutting       success, both for individuals and societies alike,
 rope has made the leap to a new type of sus-                                   subsidies from fuel and many other commodities        is gained through persistent faith in education
 tainable, competitive and equitable economy:                                   means that many people lost their jobs. All trans-    and enterprise. In job markets expertise is eve-
 a result of numerous treaties, declarations and                                portation, and especially single car use became       rything because technology develops fast and
 official goals starting from 2035. The leap is                                 much more expensive and all associated hous-          the only source of success in the era of resource
 achieved with the deployment of market instru-                                 ing costs rose. The big reform didn’t treat every     scarcity is expert knowledge.
 ments that also radically reform many condi-                                   citizen or region equally. This created turmoil in
 tions that have shaped European lifestyles over                                declining regions in the 2020’s but, the masses       Everyone has access to basic education, learn-
 the past decades. Cleantech and upcycling                                      were forced to adapt. Simultaneous reforms in         ing and knowledge. But beyond that there is a
 businesses flourish as sustainability has become                               welfare provisions due to budget cuts drove many      moral obligation for continuous development of
 the business opportunity of the century. Europe                                Europeans to migrate and search for income op-        personal and professional skills that drive sus-
 of Singular Super Champions is a society that                                  portunities from thriving metropolitan regions thus   tainable societies. Leisure time is therefore quite
 celebrates an ethos of learning, achieving and                                 speeding up the concentration of the population       different from leisure time in 2012. It is spent on
 self-mastery.                                                                  and sources of wealth.                                learning and education that is self-centred yet

 16 | SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050
pragmatic. The most affluent people, The Singu-        decreased dramatically over the years. The painful             Singular Super Champions scenario
lar Super Champions, have transcended material         measures provided a catalyst for rapid change.                 narrative – how did it all happen?
consumption. Instead of consuming, they make                                                                          »» The European Green New Deal
investments in themselves through studying new         Sustainability has become the business opportu-
skills, both to improve professionally and to be-      nity of the century. It breathes new life into entre-          »» Transparency gets the prices right
come champions of their individual lifestyle.          preneurship, new business models, and people                   »» The upcycling economy
                                                       experiment with various aspects of sustainable
                                                       living at home which saves money in the short                  »» Learning, not earning
How are sustainable                                    term and proves resilient in the long term.                          These drivers are depicted as events on the timeline.
lifestyles achieved?
                                                       As people started to get access to detailed
The road towards sustainability started with peo-      data on their own behaviour through their smart             What is life like in
ple having to pay more for the necessities and         phones in real time, and science provides in-               Singular Super Champions
luxuries that are less expensive in 2012.              creasing amounts of information regarding
                                                                                                                                  What changes between 2012 and 2050?
                                                       healthy and sustainable alternatives, people                   Education Embedded into everyday life and practices, lifelong
Due to extreme urbanisation, people live in even       started rationalizing their diets. Instead of taste,                     instead of short cycles in the beginning of life.
                                                                                                                                Individualized and commoditisized. Basis of welfare
more dense cities than they did in the 2010’s. As      nutrition became the key driver of day-to-day                            provision.
the importance of cities and their centres rise at     food choices.                                                      Work Human resources highlight work. Talent is concen-
                                                                                                                               trated in global organizations. Entrepreneur vs. super
the same time, the most talented people aspire to                                                                              talented multinationals class.
be in the downtown areas of progress in the me-        In addition to price drivers changing the ways                       City 10-15 highly urbanized metropolises in Europe.
                                                                                                                                 Extremely dense. Lots of new infrastructure. New
tropolis. This raises the prices of apartments and     people behave, technological innovation has                               specialised areas of excellence.
location starts to compensate for space – which        provided many sustainable choices and alterna-                    Health Preventative public healthcare. Rational diets. Self-
                                                                                                                                diagnosis.
leads to more sustainable housing alternatives for     tives not available in 2012. New materials made
                                                                                                                          Living Location compensates size of the flat. New materials
the mainstream.                                        it possible to build houses that are extremely                            and design. Price drives density.
                                                       energy efficient. Breakthroughs in technology                       Food Price and health efficient diet. Large scale organic
                                                                                                                                production.
With regards to mobility, rising resource prices       enable retrofitting and new construction as vi-                  Mobility New rail systems within and between metropolises.
started to influence people’s behaviour even more      able ways to provide sustainable living possibili-                        Personalized rapid transport systems. Smart mobility
                                                                                                                                 solutions. High prices.
directly. As the price of gas hit new peaks, some of   ties. The post-oil era, in turn, changed cars into           Consuming Meanings and symbols get consumed more than
the poorest households ended up sacrificing sig-       mobile solutions for electricity. Locally produced                     products. Education and self-projected me. Price
                                                                                                                              mechanism.
nificant amounts of their income for their personal    renewable energy is stored in idle car batteries               Economy Large multinational firms. Efficiency. Competition.
mobility. This drove urbanisation, which again         when cars are parked In a society of Singular                          Eco-industrial revolution. Standardized transparent
                                                                                                                              data
led to people needing to use their resources for       Super Champions sustainability is accomplished                  Sense of From technological progress. Transparency. Surveil-
mobility less. Only the most wealthy people had        through changes in behaviour patterns and con-                   security lance. Individual choices. Thought leaders.
                                                                                                                        Leasure Investing in own education and training.
the possibility to travel exceedingly as air travel    sumption practices and consumer choices along                       time
was out of reach for many. Mobility in general has     with technological innovations.

                                                                                              Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops          | 17
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