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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
34th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy System

                                            Giovanni Simoni
                                             CEO Kenergia

             Energy transition: towards electricity without CO2

                                                   30th June 2021

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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
Kenergia Srl

Rain Water     Storage Solution                                      Solar Breeder
                                                 Grid Parity 2 Srl
Recovery Srl     Provider Srl                                        Marocco Sarl

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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
INDEX

1. THE ORIGINS OF PV

2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES

3. THE DEVELOPMENT OF PV

4. THE PV TO OPTIMISE THE LAND USE EFFICIENCY: AGRIVOLTAICS

5. THE PROBLEMS OF “PV PERMITTING” IN ITALY

6. CONCLUSION

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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
1. THE ORIGINS OF PV

PV is now the most important technology
for the green revolution of the electricity
         production in the world.

                It took 40 years to
                achieve this goal!                                      In 1980 c-Si solar cell thickness was 600 µm,
                                                                                    with silver micro-grid.

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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
1. THE ORIGINS OF PV

                                                                          In Italy, the first commercial PV cells entered the «market» in
                                                                          1980-1981.

                                                                          Pragma SpA (an ENI company) was the first PV factory in
                                                                          Europe.

                                                                                                        PV factory    Number of PV factory
                                                                            In 1987                     production:       workers:
                                                                                                        1 MW/year            100

                                                                                                         PV factory   Number of PV factory
                                                                            In 2021                     production:       workers:
                                                                                                       3000 MW/year          100
    «Fiera di Genova» in 1980 was the first international solar
                       energy exhibition.

                                         Productivity increased by 3000 times!
Source: Kenergia - http://www.kenergia.it/storia-fotovoltaico/
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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
1. THE ORIGINS OF PV

In 1981 commercial PV module efficiency was
                                                                                                                                               [2]
8÷10% while the price was 12$/Wp (for a
minimum production at least of 26kWp). The                                                                                                 2018
record lab cell efficiency was > 22%[1].

Today, the average PV module efficiency is
about 20% (the same value of lab cell
efficiency in 1981).

Sources: [1] Ing. Simoni – Conferenza Nazionale sull’Energia 1987 – «Prospettive di sviluppo per il settore fotovoltaico, proposta per un programma
decennale».
         [2] Fraunhofer ISE – «Photovoltaics report» 2020.
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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
1. THE ORIGINS OF PV

                                                                           [3]                    Thanks to the simplification of the PV
                                                                                                  module industrial production process,
                                                                                                  material usage for silicon cells has
                                                                                                  been reduced significantly during the
                                                                                                  last 13 years from around 16 g/Wp to
                                                                                                  less than 4 g/Wp due to increased
                                                                                                  efficiencies, thinner wafers and wires
                                                                                                  as well as larger ingots.

                                                                                                  This played a central role in the
                                                                                                  decrease PV solar cells price,
                                                                                                  together with other factors as
                                                                                                  “economy of scale” and increase of
                                                                                                  the efficiency.

Sources: [3] Fraunhofer ISE – «Photovoltaics report» 2020.

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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
1. THE ORINGINS OF PV
                           [4]
                                                                                                While the cost of solar module has
                                                                                                declined significantly over the years, in
                                                                                                2005 the cost of PV electricity was at
                                                                                                least 10 times higher than the market
                                                                                                price.
                                                                                                The Italian Governement adopted an
                                                                                                aggressive incentives policy (initially
                                                                                                more than $550/MWh!). This lead to a
                                                                                                world wide installation record in the
                                                                                                2011 of 9,5GW!

                                                                                                 EU Directive 2001/77/EC
                                                                                                    («RES Directive»)
Source: [4] BloombergNEF – «Global Solar Investment Report State of solar markets and role of concessional finance in ISA member countries” 2020.
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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
1. THE ORIGINS OF PV
        COMPARISON BETWEEN INCENTIVES AND GAS SAVINGS IN
   B€                   “SCENARIO +2” [5]                                                                 Scenario +2 was chosen as the "base scenario"
                                                  2033: cumulative savings >                              that resulting from the SEN, in the most
                                                     PV total incentives
                                                                                            2013          cautious assumption for the increment of the
                            2022: equilibrium annual                                                      gas price.
                                  costs/savings
                                                                                                          The graph represents a synthesis of results of
                                                                                                          the comparison between the real cost of the
                                                                                                          incentives paid in the bill and the actual savings
                                                                                                          obtained in terms of natural gas imports.

                                                                   2050: Net result
                                                                     + € 89 bilion                        • In 2022 the annual savings in fossil fuel
                                                                                                            imports exceed the annual cost of
              Net investment                                  Return on investment
                                                                                                            incentives.
              Net economic return                             Difference between annual savings/costs
              Real annual cost                                Real annual cost saving
                                                                                    • In 2033 the cumulative savings exceeds the
Source: [5] Ing. Giovanni Simoni – QualEnergia - «Il sole che fa bene al Paese» 2013. total PV incentives.
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Energy transition: towards electricity without CO 2 - Kenergia.it
2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES
                                                        GREENHOUSE GLOBAL GAS EMISSIONS

                                                                                                                                                                           2021
                                                                                                                                                                    Total: 33.0 Gt CO2

                                                                                                                                                                          2021
                                                                                                                                                                   Total: 33.0 Gt CO2

          Global energy-related CO2 emissions by sector [8]                                             Global energy-related CO2 emissions, 1990-2021 [9]

Source: [8] International Energy Agency (IEA), Global energy-related CO2 emissions by        Source: [9] International Energy Agency (IEA), Global energy-related CO2 emissions,
sector, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-co2-      1990-2021, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-energy-related-co2-
emissions-by-sector                                                                          emissions-1990-2021

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2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES
                                 [10]                                                                                              Human       activities
                                                                                                                                   are estimated to
                                                                                                                                   have          caused
                                                                                                                                   approximately
                                                                                                                                   1.0°C of global
                                                                                                                                   warming        above
                                                                                                                                   pre-industrial
                                                                                                                                   levels, with a likely
                                                                                                                                   range of 0.8°C to
                                                      a) It Represents the ΔT of global warming in the hypothesis both to reach    1.2°C.
                                                      CO2 global emissions net-zero in 2055 and to begin the decrease of other     Global warming is
                                                      greenhouse gas emissions (non- CO2) in 2030.
                                                                                                                                   likely   to    reach
                                                      b) best-case scenario: it represents ΔT of global warming in hypotesis to
                                                      reach CO2 global emissions net-zero in 2040, limiting global warming to
                                                                                                                                   1.5°C       between
                                                      1,5°C.                                                                       2030 and 2052 if it
                                                      c) worst-case scenario: it represents ΔT of global warming in hypotesis to   continues           to
                                                      not begin the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions (non- CO2) in 2030.       increase at the
                                                                                                                                   current rate.

Estimated anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing at 0.2°C per decade due to past and
ongoing emissions.
Source: [10] International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – «Global Warming of 1,5°C» 2018.
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[11]   2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES

                                      GLOBAL CONTEST: THE 2050 NET-ZERO STRATEGY

                                              Many countries have already fixed at 2050 the
                                              date to net-zero the use of fossil fuels as
                                              primary sources for the production of energy
                                              both in electrical and thermal form.

                                              The EU aims to be climate-neutral by 2050 –
                                              an economy with net-zero greenhouse gas
                                              emissions. This objective is at the heart of
                                              the European Green Deal and in line with the
                                              EU’s commitment to global climate action
                                              under the Paris Agreement.

                                       Source: [11] International Energy Agency (IEA) – «Net-zero by 2050» 2021.
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2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES
                                                                                                Ever‐cheaper      renewable       energy
                                                                                        [12]
                                                                                                technologies give electricity the edge in
                                                                                                the race to zero.

                                                                                                Our pathway calls for scaling up solar
                                                                                                and wind rapidly this decade, reaching
                                                                                                annual additions of:

                                                                                                  + 630 GW                    PV
                                                                                                                             By 2030

                                                                                                  + 390 GW                   WIND
                                                                                                                             By 2030

Source: [12] International Energy Agency (IEA) – «Net-zero by 2050» 2021.
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2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES
                                         EUROPEAN GREEN NEW DEAL
As part of the European Green Deal, the Commission proposed in September 2020 to raise the 2030 greenhouse
gas emission reduction target, including emissions and removals, to at least 55% compared to 1990.
           Key targets for 2030 [13]:
               At least 40% cuts
              in greenhouse gas
          emissions (from 1990 levels)

                At least 32% share
               for renewable energy

           At least 32.5% improvement
                in energy efficiency

Source: [13] European Commission website - https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en
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2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES
                                                    ITALIAN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS [15]
                                                                                                                                  Green Deal
                                                      Per sector
                                                                                                                                           Primary balance

                                                                                                        Electrical sector

                                Waste

             Agriculture                Transport                                                  Heating and transport sector
            and Breeding

           Chemical Processes

                                            Heating
                                                                                                    Other sectors

                  Electrical Energy
                                                                                                    Total emissions

  73% of emissions are producted by the energy
  sector.
Source: [15] Elettricità Futura – «Audizione Commissione X – Attività produttive, commercio e turismo» 2021
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2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES
                                                       ITALIAN PNIEC TARGETS [16]
To achieve Green Deal targets Italy will have to:                                             Evolution of renewable capacity by 2030
         • Update the PNIEC (Piano Nazionale Integrato per                                                                  Bio and Geothermal   Innovative RES
                                                                                                                                  Energy            (PNRR)
           l’Energia e il Clima) according to European Green Deal
           targets.

                                                                                       Bio and Geothermal
                                                                                             Energy
         • To install new 65 GW of renewable energy by 2030
           (70GW including PNRR), increasing highly the rate of                                                                 Hydro
           annual installations.

                                                                                      Hydro                 PV                                              PV
         • To fix new regional targets of renewable energy
                                                                                                                             Wind
           development (burden sharing).

                                                                                                 Wind

         • Regional permitting managers will have to be more
           responsible to achive new targets.
                                                                                                 Preliminary balance 2020

         Source: [16] Elettricità Futura – «Audizione Commissione X – Attività produttive, commercio e turismo» 2021.
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2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES
                                              ITALIAN ELECTRICAL PENETRATION [16]
Comparison between the percentages of the penetration                            Electrical demand (annual variation, left axis, %)
of the electric carrier in 2017 between the various EU-28                        Index 2005=100 and share of final consuption (avarage
countries. [17]                                                                  3 years, right axis) [18]

Sources: [17] Elettricità Futura – «Vettore Elettrico: lo scenario attuale e le prospettive future» 2019.
         [18] Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA) – «Analisi trimestrale del sistema
         energetico italiano 01/2021».
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2. THE CLIMATE CHANGES
                                           ITALIAN GREEN NEW DEAL TARGETS [19]

                                                                  With the current trend the «2030 targets» will be reached in 2085
  + 7 GW/year

  are the annual installation of renewable
  plants to reach the 2030 Green Deal
  target.

+ 0,8 GW/year

Is renewable capacity of 2020 of which 120
MW PV utility scale (-50% of 2019) and 85
MW wind (-80% of 2019).
                                                                                                                    INITIAL TREND
Source: [19] Elettricità Futura – «Audizione Commissione X –
Attività produttive, commercio e turismo» 2021.

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3. THE DEVELOPMENT OF PV

                                                                                                        PV
  PV POWER EVOLUTION AND PV
                                                                                                         P installed
    PLANTS NUMBER IN ITALY [6]                                                                     YEAR
                                                                                                            [MW]
                                                                                                   2019      757
                                                                                                   2018      426
                                                                                                   2017      399          «Conto Energia»
                                                                                                   2016      382       I Conto Energia D.M. 28th
                                                                                                   2015      307       july 2005 and D.M. 6th
                                                                                                                       february 2006;
                                                                                                   2014      409       II Conto Energia D.M. 19th
                                                                                                   2013     1.400      february 2007;
                                                                                                   2012     3.654      III Conto Energia D.M. 6th
                                                                                                                       august 2010;
                                                                                                   2011     9.539
                                                                                                                       IV Conto Energia D.M. 5th
                                                                                                   2010     2.328      may 2011;
                                                                                                   2009      781       V Conto Energia D.M. 5th
                                                                                                   2008      344       july 2012.

Source: [6] Gestore dei Servizi Energetici (GSE) – «Rapporto statistico solare fotovoltaico 2020».
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3. THE DEVELOPMENT OF PV
                                                                                                 LOW RENEWABLE COSTS ALLOW TO POWER PAST
                                                                                                                  COAL [7]
                                                                        2021                  Renewable electricity costs have fallen sharply over
                                                                                              the past decade, driven by improving technologies,
                                                                                              economies of scale, increasingly competitive supply
                                                                                              chains and growing developer experience.

                                                                                              Since 2010, utility-scale solar PV power has
                                                                                              shown the sharpest cost decline at 82%.

Source: [7] International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA 2021 - https://www.irena.org/newsroom/articles/2021/Jun/Low-Renewable-Costs-Allow-To-Power-Past-Coal
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4. THE PV TO OPTIMISE THE LAND USE EFFICIENCY: AGRIVOLTAICS
   ITALIAN CONTEST: PV LAND USE
  During the years the ratio between
  PV land use and power installed
  [ha/MW] decreased thanks to the
  increase in the PV module ratio
  between power and area [W/m2]:

  ➢ In 2008 P= 250 W                2 m2

  ➢ Today P= 500 W               2 m2

            Target of                                                                 Total PV
             new PV                                                                   land for
                                 1,43                                50.000
+35 GW      power on                         PV Land                                 the target
                                ha/MW                                  ha
               the                                                                   of new 35
             ground                                                                     GW
                                                                                                  [20]

   Source: [20] Elettricità Futura – «Audizione Commissione X – Attività produttive, commercio e turismo» 2021.
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4. THE PV TO OPTIMISE THE LAND USE EFFICIENCY: AGRIVOLTAICS

 To reach the 2030 target in Italy we need to built 35GW of PV on land (PVL). A global investment of around €25
 billions in less than 10 years! A large part of PVL should use agricoltural land: the so called Agrivoltaics (AGV).
 The AGV plant, to be accepted by local Authorities, must consider a strong priority to agricoltural production..
  AGV can [21]:
  1. Contribute to a responsible use of natural resources such as land and water;
  2. Promote sustainable agricultural practices;
  3. Increase the EU’s agriculture resilience to climate change and other shocks and stresses;
  4. Enable sustainable development in rural areas through higher yields and new business opportunities.

Source: [21] SolarPower Europe – «Agrisolar Best Practise Guidelines» Version 1.0, 2021.

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5. THE PROBLEMS OF “PV PERMITTING” IN ITALY
       PV “Autorizzazioni Uniche” requested in Italy                                    PV “Autorizzazioni Uniche” issued in Italy

    20 GW of PV “Autorizzazioni Uniche” requested in Italy in                1,4 GW of PV “Autorizzazioni Uniche” issued in Italy from
                     the last 3 years [22]                                                     2016 to 2020 [22]

Source: [22] Energy & Strategy Group, Politecnico di Milano School of Management – «Renewable energy Report 2021».

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6. CONCLUSION

- In Italy, like in many other countries, PVL and AGV are playing the basic role in the energy transition.

- A correct combination of agricultural production and electricity generation on the same land is a basic
  condition to reach the 2030 enviromental target.

-    This is not an easy task for the different conditions to be satisfied:
a)   no soil food consumption;
b)   acceptance by farmers to work on the same land with electrical operators;
c)   financial and economic agreements;
d)   Landscape integration of the PVL.

- Kenergia is investing in a new approach to the projects, and we are very confident on our Hybrid
  Methodology that will demonstrate the economic convenience for all the involved stakeholders.

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Contact

             Giovanni Simoni
             g.simoni@kenergia.com

               www.kenergia.com

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