EPIK STUDY MAY 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS 2019: A KNOWN UNKNOWN
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EPIK STUDY MAY 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS 2019: A KNOWN UNKNOWN
INTRODUCTION
On 12 February 2012, Jim Miklaszewski, the At the institute we debated
NBC Pentagon correspondent, had no idea that
fiercely whether this analogy
he was about to pose a question that will
provoke arguably one of the most debatable is the best representation of
answers’ of the modern US foreign policy. the upcoming European
Parliament elections
Mr Miklaszewski asked Secretary Rumsfeld
whether there was “any evidence” linking
Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq with “terrorist Ultimately, we agreed it
organizations.” Rumsfeld replied immortally: does. In the coming pages we
“As we know, there are known knowns; there will try to explain why
are things we know we know. We also know
there are known unknowns; that is to say, we
know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns — the
ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
As you will find out in the forthcoming pages,
next European Parliament elections fall in the
category of “known unknowns”.
EPIK | 02
INTRODUCTION
Our projection for the next European Projections included in this
Parliament is based on POLITICO’s aggregation
study are based upon
of national polls. ‘Kalman trend’ is used to
create a trendline for each national political POLITICO polls data as of 18
party. May 2019
Kalman trend is a technique that helps address
gaps in time series, creating more accurate
trajectories then relying on a single poll
results, which may be of varying quality and
subject to varying gaps.
Projections included in this study are based
upon POLITICO polls data as of 18 May 2019.
We have cross-checked POLITICO data with
four other polls: Financial Times poll-of-polls
(May 2019), EUROPELECTS (May 2019), Kantar
Public, commissioned by the EP (April 2019)
and ECFR predictions (April 2019). We have
established only slight differences in data.
EPIK | 03
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
European Parliament elections are important In a nutshell, there are seven major
since European Parliament is the only directly- conclusions:
elected EU institution. The Parliament is the
only legislative body in the world whose 1. Despite the loss of around
decisions have direct legal effect in multiple 6.5%, pro-EU front (EPP, S&D,
sovereign nations. ALDE+En Marche, GREENS-EFA) will
hold its ground as EU largest political
We decided to turn our attention to the force, with 63.2% of the total vote.
European Parliament elections chiefly for two
reasons: 2. However, for the first time
since 1979, the big two - EPP and
1. Elections are of immense importance S&D, will lose the majority. They are
for the EU. In the times when progressive and projected to win 42% of total vote,
populist forces are at odds across continents, down from 54% in 2014.
upcoming European Parliament represent next
major, if not key, showdown of these opposing 3. As the “grand coalition” of the
forces. They will not define just the EU, but EPP and S&D will no longer have a
rather state of global affairs. majority of MEPs in the European
Parliament, these political families will
2. Second points stems naturally from the need to work with other groups in the
former one. Because of their importance, next European Parliament to drive the
elections will have major impact upon Western European project forward. (ECFR, April
Balkans and Kosovo. 2019).
EPIK | 04
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
4. Eurosceptics (European Alliance of
People and Nations (ex-ENF), ECR, GUE/NGL,
5STAR+BREXIT (ex-EFDD), will gain ground of
around 2.7%, with 30.2% of the total vote.
5. With a strong gain, ALDE+En Marche is
set to be king-maker that will bless the EPP,
S&D coalition.
6. New and unaffiliated parties will gain
3.7%, with 6.5% of the total vote.
7. No further enlargement is to be
expected. Some progress might be expected in
the accession process of Albania, Montenegro
and Macedonia. Same could apply to Serbia, in
light of potential normalization agreement
with Kosovo. In case of the agreement, Kosovo
for its turn will probably benefit from visa-
free regime and, in a best case scenario - get
a candidate status. Later applies to Bosnia and
Herzegovina, as well.
EPIK | 05
FACTS &
FIGURES
Since 1979, every five years EU citizens choose More than 400 million people are
who represents them in the European eligible to vote, making it the biggest
Parliament, the directly-elected institution democratic exercise in the world, after
that defends their interests in the EU India.
decision-making process.
The European Parliament has three
No other EU institution is directly elected, with main roles: legislative, supervisory and
the Council of the European Union and the budgetary. This means passing EU law,
European Council being only indirectly with the help of the Council of the EU,
legitimated through national elections. democratically scrutinise all EU
institutions and establish the EU
The last European elections in 2014 were the budget.
largest transnational elections ever held at the
same time. The next European elections take
place on 23-26 May 2019 giving all adult EU
citizens the opportunity to select 751 MEPs
who will represent them in the European
Parliament.
The allocation of seats is laid down in the
European treaties. It takes into account the
size of the population of each country, with
smaller countries getting more seats than
strict proportionality would imply. Currently,
the number of MEPs ranges from six for Malta,
Luxembourg and Cyprus to 96 for Germany.
EPIK | 06
RULES OF THE
GAME
European elections are organised under the UK will take part in the
provisions of the overarching European
elections
electoral law (revised in 2002 and 2018).
Every EU citizen residing in an EU country of
which he/she is not a national has the right to
vote and to stand as a candidate in European
Parliamentary elections in his/her country of
residence, under the same conditions as
nationals of that country - this right is
enshrined in Article 39 of the Charter of
Fundamental Rights of the European Union. In
addition, the right to vote is included in
Articles 20(1) and 22(1) of the Treaty on the
Functioning of the European Union.
Despite Britain's plans to leave the European
Union, UK still will take part in the elections as
it was one of the conditions of BREXIT being
extended to October 31, after UK failed to
leave the EU before 29 March 2019.
EPIK | 07
RULES OF THE
GAME
Practical details of the electoral process are Minimum voting age is 16
governed by national laws and elections are
years in Austria
held under the authority of each member
state.
Number of countries have
The minimum age is 18 except in Austria and electoral threshold
Malta (where it’s 16) and Greece (where it’s 17).
Voting is compulsory in Belgium, Bulgaria,
Cyprus, Greece and Luxembourg.
Some countries have an electoral threshold -
where, by law, a party or a candidate needs to
gain a certain percentage of the national vote
to qualify for a seat. The idea is to prevent
very small, fringe, or extremist parties from
winning seats without meeting a minimum level
of support - usually a small percentage.
France, for example, is a single constituency
with 74 seats - so, without a threshold, it
would take just 1.4% of the vote to win a seat.
But France has set its minimum threshold at
5%.
EPIK | 08
RULES OF THE
GAME
The countries where thresholds apply for the There are three different
2019 elections are:
ways to vote:
· 5%: France, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, the
Czech Republic, Romania, Croatia, Latvia and · In person at a local polling
Hungary station based on your home
· 4%: Austria, Italy and Sweden
address
· 3%: Greece
· 1.8%: Cyprus
· By post
Voting takes place across three days,
depending on where the election is being held:
· Or by proxy (appointing
· 23 May: Netherlands, UK
someone to vote on your
· 24 May: Ireland, Czech Republic (which has behalf)
two-day voting also on 25 May)
· 25 May: Latvia, Malta, Slovakia
· 26 May: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia,
Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Final results will be
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden announced from 23:00
Brussels time on Sunday, 26
Final results will be announced from 23:00
Brussels time on Sunday, 26 May 2019. May 2019.
EPIK | 09
2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: NATIONAL RULES SOURCE: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
EUROPEAN
POLITICAL PARTIES
A European political party is a type of political As of November 2018, there
party organisation operating transnationally in
are 10 registered European
Europe and in the institutions of the European
Union. They are regulated and funded by the political parties
European Union and are made up of national
parties. To be recognized as a European
politically party, party must comprise of
elected parliamentarians in at least a quarter
of the member states.
As of November 2018, these are 10 registered
European political parties:
1. European People’s Party
2. Party of European Socialists
3. Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for
Europe Party
4. Alliance of European Conservatives and
Reformists
5. European Green Party
6. Party of the European Left
7. Movement for a Europe of Nations and
Freedom
8. European Free Alliance
9. European Democratic Party
10. European Christian Political Movement
EPIK | 11EUROPEAN
POLITICAL PARTIES
EUROPEAN
INTEGRATION
POSITION
Pro-EU
Pro-EU
Pro-EU
Eurosceptic
Pro-EU
EPIK | 12EUROPEAN
POLITICAL PARTIES
EUROPEAN
INTEGRATION
POSITION
Eurosceptic
Eurosceptic
Pro-EU
Pro-EU
Eurosceptic
EPIK | 13EUROPEAN
POLITICAL GROUPS
Political groups bring together MEPs from After the elections, MEPs
different Member States on the basis of their
form political groups
political affinities, which gives individual
Members greater influence. Groups can also be
formed later during the Parliament mandate. To get the formal status of a
political group it must
Currently there are 8 political groups in the
consist of at least 25 MEPs,
current European Parliament:
elected in at least one-
1. European People's Party (EPP) quarter of the member
2. Progressive Alliance of Socialists and states (i.e. at least 7). MEPs
Democrats (S&D)
may only belong to one
3. European Conservatives and Reformists
(ECR)
political group
4. Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for
Europe (ALDE)
5. European United Left - Nordic Green Left
(GUE-NGL)
6. Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens–
EFA)
7. Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy
(EFDD)
8. Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF)
EPIK | 14POLITICAL GROUPS IN THE
8TH LEGISLATIVE TERM
(2014-2019)
SOURCE: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
EPIK | 15CENTRE-RIGHT PRO-EU Angela Merkel Sebastian Kurz Manfred Weber Andrej Plenković Viktor Orbán Boyko Borissov EPIK | 16
CENTRE-LEFT PRO-EU Pedro Sánchez Jeremy Corbyn Frans Timmermans Stefan Löfven Borut Pahor Martin Schulz EPIK | 17
CENTRE PRO-EU Emmanuel Macron Guy Verhofstadt Charles Michel Margrethe Vestager Mark Rutte Juha Sipilä EPIK | 18
RIGHT-WING EUROSCEPTIC Matteo Salvini Marine Le Pen Norbert Hofer Geert Wilders Jörg Meuthen Tomio Okamura EPIK | 19
CENTRE-RIGHT EUROSCEPTIC Theresa May Jarosław Kaczyński Jan Zahradil Jussi Halla-aho EPIK | 20
CENTRE-LEFT PRO-EU Ska Keller Ulrike Lunacek Oriol Junqueras Philippe Lamberts EPIK | 21
RIGHT-WING EUROSCEPTIC Beppe Grillo Nigel Farage EPIK | 22
LEFT-WING EUROSCEPTIC Alexis Tsipras Mary Lou McDonald EPIK | 23
SPITZEN
KANDIDATEN
Spitzenkandidaten or the lead candidate Spitzenkandidaten was a
process, first used in the 2014 European
logical consequence of the
elections, gives European citizens a say on
candidates for EU Commission President. entry into force of the
Treaty of Lisbon
What started out as an experiment in 2014,
has the potential to be reproduced and
strengthened, with clear democratic benefits
for the Union, confirming it as the right choice
for a Europe which is not afraid of discussing
its fundamentals.
It was also a logical consequence of the entry
into force of the Treaty of Lisbon, which
specified that the outcome of the elections to
the European Parliament needs to be taken
account when proposing candidates for
President of the European Commission. The
Treaty of Lisbon also established a closer link
between citizens and the democratic life of
the EU, explicitly stating that Members of the
European Parliament are ‘representatives of
the Union’s citizens’. (European Political
Strategy Center, 16 February 2018)
EPIK | 24SPITZEN
KANDIDATEN
The development was met with a strong "If you want to strengthen
endorsement from citizens. In a 2014 survey,
European democracy, then
63% of respondents agreed with the
statement that ‘the election of the President you cannot reverse the small
of the Commission taking into account the democratic progress seen
results of the European elections represented with the creation of lead
significant progress for democracy within the
candidates –
EU’, whereas only 18% disagreed. (European
Parliament, 2014, ‘Parlameter survey 2014: Spitzenkandidaten. I would
citizens cheer Parliament’s role in Juncker like the experience to be
election’) repeated." European
Commission President Jean-
Based on the results of the European
elections, one of the lead candidates will be
Claude Juncker, State of the
elected President of the Commission by the Union address, 13 September
European Parliament, after being formally 2017
proposed by heads of state or government,
who will take account of the outcome of the
European elections.
Ahead of the 2019 elections, seven European
political parties had named in total 15 lead
candidates. Three political parties appointed
more than one lead candidate.
EPIK | 25SPITZEN
KANDIDATEN
Manfred Weber
Frans Timmermans
EPIK | 26SPITZEN
KANDIDATEN
Jan Zahradil
Team Europe - seven lead
candidates. Pictured:
Margrethe Vestager
EPIK | 27SPITZEN
KANDIDATEN
Two lead candidates.
Pictured: Ska Keller
Oriol Junqueras
EPIK | 28SPITZEN
KANDIDATEN
Two lead candidates.
Pictured: Nico Cué
EPIK | 29PRIORITIES
SOURCE: EUROBAROMETER, APRIL 2019
EPIK | 30EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
Our projection for the next European We have cross-checked
Parliament is based on POLITICO’s aggregation
POLITICO data with four
of national polls. ‘Kalman trend’ is used to
create a trendline for each national political other polls: Financial Times
party. poll-of-polls (May 2019),
EUROPELECTS (May 2019),
Kalman trend is a technique that helps address
Kantar Public, commissioned
gaps in time series, creating more accurate
trajectories then relying on a single poll by the EP (April 2019) and
results, which may be of varying quality and ECFR predictions (April
subject to varying gaps. POLITICO updates this 2019). We have established
national data with the latest information about
only slight differences in
the European party affiliation of national
political parties, and applies to each party
data
result the calculation method – or a close
equivalent – the relevant country uses in the
European Parliament election (which may be
different from the methods in their national
parliament election), to come up with a
projected 2019 seat result.
Projections included in this study are based
upon POLITICO polls data as of 18 May 2019.
EPIK | 31EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
European People Party (EPP) is projected to Both EPP and S&D are
lose 46 seats, from 216 (2014) to 170 (2019)
projected to lose seats
seats.
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and ALDE/En Marche and
Democrats (S&D) is projected to lose 40 seats, Salvini's Alliance of People
from 186 (2014) to 146 (2019) seats.
and Nations (ex-ENF) are set
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe to gain strong grounds
+ Macron's En Marche (ALDE) is projected to
gain 36 seats, from 68 (2014) to 104 (2019)
seats.
European Alliance of People and Nations (ex-
ENF) is projected to gain 36 seats, from 36
(2014) to 72 (2019) seats.
European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)
is projected to lose 16 seats, from 77 (2014)
to 61 (2019) seats.
EPIK | 32EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
Greens/European Free Alliance (GREENS/EFA) While GREENS/EFA and
is projected to gain 3 seats, from 52 (2014) to
5Star/BREXIT will be
55 (2019) seats.
gaining seats, GUE/ENL will
European United Left – Nordic Green Left face downward trend
(GUE/NGL) is projected to lose 3 seats, from
52 (2014) to 49 (2019) seats.
New and unaffiliated will
New + unaffiliated parties are projected to surge forward
gain 28 seats, from 21 (2014) to 49 (2019)
seats.
5Star's group+ Brexit Party (ex-EFDD) is
projected to gain 3 seats, from 42 (2014) to
45 (2019) seats.
EPIK | 33EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
These data lead to seven major conclusions: 6. New and unaffiliated parties will
gain 3.7%, with 6.5% of the total vote.
1. Despite the loss of around 6.5%, pro-EU
front (EPP, S&D, ALDE+En Marche, GREENS- 7. No further enlargement is to be
EFA) will hold its ground as EU largest political expected. Some progress might be
force, with 63.2% of the total vote. expected in the accession process of
Albania, Montenegro and Macedonia.
2. However, for the first time since 1979, Same could apply to Serbia, in light of
the big two, EPP and S&D, will lose the potential normalization agreement
majority. They are projected to win 42% of with Kosovo. In case of the agreement,
total vote, down from 54% in 2014. Kosovo for its turn will probably
benefit from visa-free regime and, in a
3. As the “grand coalition” of the EPP and best case scenario - get a candidate
S&D will no longer have a majority of MEPs in status. Same applies to Bosnia and
the European Parliament, these political Herzegovina.
families will need to work with other groups in
the next European Parliament to drive the
European project forward. (ECFR, April 2019).
4. Eurosceptics (European Alliance of
People and Nations (ex-ENF), ECR, GUE/NGL,
5STAR+BREXIT (ex-EFDD), will gain ground of
around 2.7%, with 30.2% of the total vote.
5. With a strong gain, ALDE+En Marche is
set to be king-maker that will bless the EPP,
S&D coalition.
EPIK | 34EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
EPIK | 35EUROPEAN ELECTIONS PROJECTIONS 2019 SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 2014 2019
WINNERS
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
36
seats
36
seats
NEW + UNAFFILIATED 28
seats
EPIK | 37LOSERS
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
46
seats
40
seats
EPIK | 38NEXT
COALITION?
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
420
out of
751
seats
EPIK | 39EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES IN WHICH
EACH GROUP IS PROJECTED TO
RECEIVE MOST VOTES
AUSTRIA, CROATIA, CYPRUS, GERMANY,
14 GREECE, FINLAND, HUNGARY, LITHUANIA,
LUXEMBOURG, IRELAND, PORTUGAL, ROMANIA,
SLOVENIA, SWEDEN
4 ESTONIA, DENMARK,
NETHERLANDS, FRANCE,
3 BELGIUM, POLAND, SLOVAKIA
3 BULGARIA, SPAIN
NEW + UNAFFILIATED 2 CZECH REPUBLIC, LATVIA
1 UK
1 ITALY
EPIK | 40EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 751
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Others
2.8%
2014 Eurosceptics
27.5%
Pro-EU
69.7%
2019 Other
6.5% 0%
Eurosceptics
30.2%
Pro-EU
63.2%
EPIK | 41EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 18
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014
Eurosceptics
22.2%
Pro-EU
77.8%
2019 Eurosceptics
0%
27.8%
Pro-EU
72.2%
EPIK | 42EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 21
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
4.8%
2014
Pro-EU
95.2%
2019 Eurosceptics
4.8%
Pro-EU
95.2%
EPIK | 43EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 17
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014
Eurosceptics
23.5%
Pro-EU
76.5%
2019 0%
Eurosceptics
41.2%
Pro-EU
58.8%
EPIK | 44EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 6
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
0%
2014
Pro-EU
100%
2019 Eurosceptics
16.7%
0%
Pro-EU
83.3%
EPIK | 45EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 21
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014
Eurosceptics
47.6%
Pro-EU
52.4%
2019 0%
Pro-EU
38.1%
Eurosceptics
61.9%
EPIK | 46EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 SEATS: 96
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
Eurosceptics
2014
16.8%
Pro-EU
83.2%
2019 Eurosceptics
20.2%
0%
Pro-EU
79.8%
EPIK | 47EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 SEATS: 13
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Eurosceptics
30.8%
Pro-EU
69.2%
2019 Eurosceptics
23.1%
0%
Pro-EU
76.9%
EPIK | 48EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 SEATS: 6
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
0%
2014
Pro-EU
100%
2019 Eurosceptics
16.7%
0%
Pro-EU
83.3%
EPIK | 49EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 54
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Other 0%
13%
2014 Eurosceptics
9.3%
Pro-EU
77.8%
2019 Eurosceptics
Other
3.7%
20.4%
Pro-EU
75.9%
EPIK | 50EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 13
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014
Eurosceptics
23.1%
Pro-EU
76.9%
2019 0%
Eurosceptics
30.8%
Pro-EU
69.2%
EPIK | 51EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 74
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Eurosceptics
37.8%
Pro-EU
62.2%
2019 0%
Eurosceptics
41.9%
Pro-EU
58.1%
EPIK | 52EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 21
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Eurosceptics
28.6%
Pro-EU
71.4%
2019 Eurosceptics
14.3%
0%
Pro-EU
85.7%
EPIK | 53EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 11
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
0%
2014
Pro-EU
100%
2019 Eurosceptics
9.1%
0%
Pro-EU
90.9%
EPIK | 54EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 21
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Pro-EU
28.6%
Eurosceptics
71.4%
2019 0%
Pro-EU
23.8%
Eurosceptics
76.2%
EPIK | 55EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 11
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
0%
9.1%
2014
Pro-EU
90.9%
2019 Other
18.2%
0%
Pro-EU
81.8%
EPIK | 56EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 73
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Eurosceptics
30.1%
Pro-EU
69.9%
2019 0%
Pro-EU
34.2%
Eurosceptics
65.8%
EPIK | 57EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 SEATS: 11
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Eurosceptics
36.4%
Pro-EU
63.6%
2019 Eurosceptics
0%
27.3%
Pro-EU
72.7%
EPIK | 58EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 SEATS: 6
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
0%
2014
Pro-EU
100%
2019 Eurosceptics
16.7%
0%
Pro-EU
83.3%
EPIK | 59EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 8
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics 0%
12.5%
2014
Pro-EU
87.5%
2019 Eurosceptics
12.5%
0%
Pro-EU
87.5%
EPIK | 60EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 6
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
0%
2014
Pro-EU
100%
2019 Eurosceptics
0%
Pro-EU
100%
EPIK | 61EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 SEATS: 26
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Eurosceptics
34.6%
Pro-EU
65.4%
2019 0%
Eurosceptics
38.5%
Pro-EU
61.5%
EPIK | 62EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 SEATS: 51
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014
Eurosceptics
45.1%
Pro-EU
54.9%
2019 0%
Eurosceptics
49% Pro-EU
51%
EPIK | 63EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 21
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
4.8%
2014
Pro-EU
95.2%
2019 Eurosceptics
9.5%
0%
Pro-EU
90.5%
EPIK | 64EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 32
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
0%
2014
Pro-EU
100%
2019 Eurosceptics
0%
Pro-EU
100%
EPIK | 65EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019 SEATS: 20
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Eurosceptics
35%
Pro-EU
65%
2019 0%
Eurosceptics
40%
Pro-EU
60%
EPIK | 66EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 8
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Eurosceptics
37.5%
Pro-EU
62.5%
2019 Eurosceptics
0%
25%
Pro-EU
75%
EPIK | 67EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 13
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
Eurosceptics
7.7% 0%
2014
Pro-EU
92.3%
2019 0%
Eurosceptics
46.2%
Pro-EU
53.8%
EPIK | 68EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 2019
SOURCE: POLITICO, MAY 2019
SEATS: 73
STRENGTH OF EUROSCEPTICS
0%
2014 Pro-EU
38.4%
Eurosceptics
61.6%
2019 0%
Eurosceptics
46.6%
Pro-EU
53.4%
EPIK | 69COUNTRIES TO
WATCH?
Ahead of this election, there are still so many Besides Brexit uncertainty in the UK,
moving pieces in European politics that its anxiety about immigration could
outcome remains very uncertain. In many large influence voting in several countries, to
member states, such as Spain – which held the advantage of nationalist and
national parliamentary election in late April – populist parties.
domestic political developments dominated the
headlines, and citizens appear to have not yet One of those countries is Italy where
turned their minds to the European vote. The the government is a nationalist-populist
outcome of national elections will have a great coalition between Matteo Salvini's
impact on how they vote in the European right-wing, anti-immigration League
Parliament election. and Five Star.
In Brussels and Strasbourg, the two seats of The League has forged an election
the European Parliament, there are on-going alliance with Le Pen's National Rally,
developments within pan-European political Wilders's Party for Freedom, the far-
families. Members of the centre bloc – the right Alternative for Germany (AfD),
long-established Alliance of Liberals and the Finns Party and the Danish People's
Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and newcomers Party.
La République En Marche! – are starting to
agree on how they will work together. These In Austria, few days ahead of elections
will be first European election for President the government collapsed, after a
Emmanuel Macron’s liberal La République en leader of right-wing nationalist
Marche (LREM). Freedom Party was involved in a
corruption scandal. Effects of this
Yet there is still high tension within the development will likely impact voters
European People’s Party (EPP) over the behaviour at the European elections.
suspension of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor
Orbán’s Fidesz for an indefinite period beyond
the European Parliament election.
EPIK | 70WHAT HAPPENS
AFTER THE
ELECTION?
In the days immediately following the results, At its first plenary session,
the new Members of the new Parliament work
the new Parliament will elect
to form political groups. The political
composition of the new Parliament may a new President of the
require new allegiances to be formed and new European Parliament
groups may emerge. At its first plenary
session, the new Parliament will elect a new
President of the European Parliament.
It will then be up to MEPs to elect the next
European Commission President and approve
the whole Commission as a whole.
European political parties have chosen lead
candidates to stand for the presidency of the
Commission. After the elections, and taking
into account the results, EU leaders will
propose a candidate for Commission President.
Parliament has said that it will not accept a
candidate who has not participated in the lead
candidate process. Parliament will vote on the
new Commission President in July.
EPIK | 71WHAT HAPPENS
AFTER THE
ELECTION?
It is then up to EU countries to propose The new European
commissioners, in cooperation with the new
Commission should take
Commission President. The commissioners-
designate will be examined by the office on 1 November
parliamentary committees responsible for their
proposed portfolios before MEPs vote on
whether to approve the entire Commission in
plenary.
The full Commission, including the Commission
President and the High Representative for
Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, then needs
to be approved by a majority of votes cast by
the Parliament.
After the President and Commissioners have
been approved by Parliament, they are
formally appointed by the Council, acting by a
qualified majority.
The new European Commission should take
office on 1 November.
EPIK | 72WHAT HAPPENS
AFTER THE ELECTION?
CONSOLIDATED VERSION OF THE TREATY ON THE EUROPEAN UNION, ART. 17.7 /
DECLARATION 11 ANNEXED TO THE TREATY. BASED ON THE TIMELINE OF THE 8TH
TERM.
23-26
European Elections
May
Taking into account the result of the elections, the
20-21 European Council, by qualified majority, proposes
June President of the Commission
Inaugural plenary session of the European Parliament and
2 July election of the President of the Parliament
July Election of the Commission President by the European
Parliament, by majority of its members (at least 376)
Aug/ Member States propose Commissioner-designates, in
Sep consultation with the President of the Commission
Sep/ Hearings of the Commissioners-designate in the European
Oct Parliament committees
Vote by the European Parliament on the new Commission,
Oct/ by a majority of the votes cast. European Council, acting
Nov by a qualified majority, appoints the new Commission
Nov Inauguration of the new European Commission
EPIK | 73IMPACT ON
WESTERN BALKANS
In July 2014, President of the European Such a political environment has
Commission, Mr Jean-Claude Juncker, prevented any significant progress of
presented his Political Guidelines for the next Western Balkans towards the EU,
European Commission. In them, it noted: “… during the mandate of the outgoing
under my Presidency of the Commission, Parliament and Commission.
ongoing negotiations will continue, and notably
the Western Balkans will need to keep a Upcoming European election should be
European perspective, but no further more of the same.
enlargement will take place over the next five
years.” The outcome of the election, with
smaller traditional coalitions and a
This single sentence captured perfectly the much more fragmented chamber, will
appetite of Member States towards the also shape the EU legislative agenda in
enlargement agenda. Position generated fair the coming years. This is because EU
amount of criticism at the time, however with legislation in almost all policy areas
the hindsight, we now understand where Mr now requires the majority support of
Juncker was coming from. MEPs for it to pass. Legislative
coalitions in the Parliament have
Outgoing European Parliament was a strong traditionally been formed issue-by-
supporter of the European enlargement issue, with different coalitions being
agenda. However, in past five years Member dominant in different policy areas.
States were engulfed with internal national
issues, ranging from migration crisis, rise of In the 2014-19 Parliament, a
nationalism across Europe, erosion of centreright coalition – between the
democracies in Hungary and Poland, BREXIT, EPP, ALDE, and the European
etc. Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) –
has tended to win on legislation
EPIK | 74IMPACT ON
WESTERN BALKANS
relating to regulation of the single market more powers for national governments
(such as financial services regulation), reform to run deficits in the Eurozone, and
of the eurozone and international trade more protectionist trade policies.
agreements.
The headlines across Europe following
Meanwhile, a centre-left coalition – between the elections in May are likely to focus
the Socialists, ALDE, the Greens, and the Left on the electoral gains of the populist
(EUL/NGL) – has tended to win on legislation eurosceptics across Europe, at the
relating to justice and home affairs (such as expense of the centrist pro-
the free movement of people, and policies Europeans.
towards refugees), environmental standards
and international development issues (such as And these gains will matter. The new
EU spending on development aid). Parliament will be a difficult partner
for the governments and the
With the newly fragmented Parliament, each of Commission, who will not be able to
these coalitions will be smaller and majorities rely on a stable coalition. The result
will be more difficult to form. As a result, could be policy gridlock in the EU in
populist EU-critical MEPs, particularly on the the coming years, which could further
right, will be able to shape the policy agenda. encourage anti-European sentiments
Populist EU-critical MEPs are also likely to be in many countries (The European
able to win key policy-making positions in the Elections and BREXIT, May 2019).
Parliament, such as committee chairs and
legislative report-writing roles
(rapporteurships). With this new influence,
expect these MEPs to demand more
restrictive refugee and asylum policies, more
spending on EU external border controls,
EPIK | 72IMPACT ON
WESTERN BALKANS
Amid such a backdrop, one should be sceptical
about the prospects of meaningful
enlargement agenda of the Western Balkans in
the next five years. Political guidelines of the
July 2014 will only need change of date -
otherwise they will firmly be valid for 2019-
2024.
No further enlargement is to be expected.
Some progress might be expected in the
accession process of Albania, Montenegro and
Macedonia. Same could apply to Serbia, in light
of potential normalization agreement with
Kosovo. In case of the agreement, Kosovo for
its turn will probably benefit from visa-free
regime and, in a best case scenario - get a
candidate status. Later applies to Bosnia and
Herzegovina, as well.
EPIK | 73EUROPEAN POLICY INSTITUTE OF KOSOVO, 2019. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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