ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES - Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier New Challenges for the Military and Conflict Management - Ethik und Militär
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ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES CONTROVERSIES IN M I LI TA R Y E T H I C S A N D SECURIT Y POLICY ISSUE 01/2021 Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier SPECIAL New Challenges for the Military and Conflict Management
CONTENT
CLIMATE CHANGE
AS A THREAT
MULTIPLIER
Editorial
SPECIAL:
Veronika Bock Page 03 NEW CHALLENGES
Out of the Greenhouse: FOR THE MILITARY
Jointly and globally, AND CONFLICT
the climate change security risk
can still be prevented MANAGEMENT
Michael Czogalla Page 04
Climate Change as a Risk Amplifier: “We can significantly improve
On the links between our approach to climate change
climate change and conflict and sustainability”
Michael Brzoska Page 10 An interview with Lt Gen. Richard
Nugee, Climate Change and
If You Want Peace, Protect Sustainability Non-Executive Director,
the Climate! UK Ministry of Defence Page 48
Andreas Lienkamp Page 18
“Somalia will become almost
Climate Justice and Climate unlivable in certain areas”
Conflicts as a Security Policy Challenge An interview with Christophe Hodder,
in the 21st Century environmental security advisor
Angela Kallhoff/ to the UN Mission in Somalia Page 51
Thomas Schulte-Umberg Page 26
Imprint/Full Issues Page 55
Why We Need a Green and
More Comprehensive International
Security and Defence Policy
Francois Bausch Page 32
More Tasks, More Resources,
More Inclusion: Requirements for
Humanitarian Assistance in
Times of Increasing Climate Risks
Oliver Müller Page 40
2 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21
EDITORIAL Global climate change poses an existential It would no doubt be a simplification to say danger to humanity, but has faded into the that the impacts of climate change will inev- background somewhat during the coronavirus itably lead to armed conflicts. However, with pandemic. Now the issue is back with force. In increasing fragility in regions of the world the United States, President Biden formally re- such as sub-Saharan Africa and the Horn of joined the Paris climate agreement on the day Africa, they should certainly be taken serious- of his inauguration, and has since announced ly as threat multipliers. These dangers must very ambitious climate targets. In Germany, be considered when assessing the needs and climate protection has remained a focal point focus of humanitarian aid and disaster relief, of political debate even during the pandem- international development cooperation, ef- ic, and is one of the key issues in the upcom- forts to promote peace and resilience, and ing parliamentary elections. The UN Climate state-building. Change Conference (COP26) promises to be an This brings us to the tasks and instruments interesting event. It was postponed because of of classical security policy. There is increasing the pandemic and will now take place in Glas- pressure to integrate crisis prevention and gow in November 2021. Will the international conflict preparedness more strongly into secu- community agree on further improvements rity policy concepts. At the same time, demand to limit global warming to well below two de- is growing for the military to become more grees Celsius? sustainable, given its enormous consumption The fact is that the past decade was the of financial and ecological resources. For our warmest since weather records began 140 armed forces, this means modernizing their years ago, and 2015 to 2020 were the six equipment and at the same time adapting warmest years in that whole period. Climate their capabilities in light of potential new op- change threatens the livelihoods and health erational scenarios. of millions of people – especially in vulnerable I am delighted to present this new edition regions of the global South. Possible conse- of Ethics and Armed Forces, which puts for- quences include a worsening of economic in- ward an extremely important topic for dis- equalities, conflicts over resources, the migra- cussion. I would like to take this opportunity tion of refugees and displaced persons, and to thank the authors for their intelligent and even the collapse of state structures. thought-provoking contributions, and I wish Pope Francis drew attention to the dangers you an enjoyable read. of climate change in 2015, in Laudato si’, the first ever encyclical letter about the environ- ment. In this text, he describes climate change as “one of the principal challenges facing hu- manity in our day” and a “global problem with grave implications: social, economic, [and] political [...]”. Although there is now a broad consensus within the global community that the impacts of climate change may threaten the living con- Dr. Veronika Bock ditions of many people, it is a much disputed Director of zebis topic whether and how climate change con- tributes to the emergence of armed conflicts. During its two-year membership of the United Nations Security Council from 2019-20, Ger- many tabled a draft resolution describing cli- mate change as a threat to international peace and security. The proposal was blocked by the United States, Russia and China. ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM 3
OUT OF THE
GREENHOUSE Author: Michael Czogalla
JOINTLY AND GLOBALLY, Introduction
THE CLIMATE CHANGE When we think of climate change, most of us
SECURITY RISK CAN STILL think of natural disasters, melting icebergs
and, with a guilty conscience, possibly also
BE PREVENTED going on vacation by plane. But the problem
and its consequences go far beyond rising
sea levels, forest fires, droughts and floods.
Climate change is now an international se-
curity risk that affects every country, and it
can only be prevented or contained if we join
forces. Current commitments by countries to
reduce their emissions date back to the 2015
Paris Agreement. Yet in the foreseeable future,
these commitments will miss the target also
set at that time: to limit global warming to 1.5
degrees Celsius. The signatories would need
to cut global emissions by 7.6 percent each
year until 2030 – a 45 percent reduction from
2010 levels – in order to stay below the 1.5 °C
Abstract target.1 “The data [...] show that the global
mean temperature for 2020 was around 1.2
The facts about climate change are clear, the goals are scientifi- °C warmer than pre-industrial times, meaning
cally supported: to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, greenhouse gas that time is fast running out to meet the goals
of the Paris Agreement.”2 If global warming
emissions must be reduced by around 50 percent by 2030. This calls
then rises to 2 degrees Celsius or more, the in-
for committed action, especially from the largest emitters. Since
ternational community will face very different
U. S. President Biden took office, many have been counting on his
challenges – namely gigantic flows of refugees
commitment to climate policy and diplomacy. The recent stricter re- from regions that are no longer habitable,
duction targets of many major emitters, together with China’s com- enormous international relief efforts to alle-
mitment to climate neutrality and phasing out coal, give reason to viate natural disasters and famines, and an
hope that cooperation in the spirit of the Paris climate agreement is increasing threat of climate-related conflicts.
possible. Not only the United States, but also its “system competitor” Politicians have been aware of the problem
China need to adopt a leading role. Despite many lines of conflict since long before Paris. For more than three
and areas of dispute, they must not allow geopolitical rivalry to in- decades, scientists have pointed to increasing
terfere with their common goal of climate protection. This requires: global warming, which has risen steadily with
1. a willingness to invest heavily in economic transformation and to industrialization since the mid-19th century.
support those countries that cannot afford to do this on their own; “The last time the atmospheric CO₂ amounts
were this high was more than 3 million years
2. binding long-term commitments and treaties that survive changes
ago, when temperature was 2-3 C (3.6-5.4 °F)
of government; and 3. an understanding of the numerous security
higher than during the pre-industrial era, and
risks associated with climate change. The humanitarian costs of
sea level was 15-25 meters (50-80 feet) higher
unchecked climate change, i.e. global warming in excess of 2 °C, than today.”3
would far outweigh the efforts required now. In combination with The problem of global warming has been
an incentive and penalty mechanism that still has to be put in place, sufficiently documented by science. It is a
there is an opportunity to hold those states to account that refuse well-known fact now. What has been lacking
for various reasons to protect the climate. Significant steps in this to date is the will on the part of the interna-
direction should be taken at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. tional community to follow through on their
4 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21
understanding, rethinking, promises and not easily be watered down or rolled back by
commitments with measurable action. Al- the next administration.
most 69 percent of global greenhouse gases When Biden hosted a virtual climate summit
are caused by only ten countries. The United on Earth Day, on April 22, 2021, Pope Francis
States lies in ignominious second place be- and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were
hind China, followed by the European Union joined by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Rus-
and India. Russia, Japan, Brazil, Indonesia, sian President Vladimir Putin, and many other
Iran and Canada trail somewhat behind.4 heads of state and government. Right at the
These countries should set an example, and beginning, the United States made a surprise
yet too often the blame is placed on others. commitment to halve its emissions by 2030
Emerging economies want to catch up, and in- compared to 2005 levels. That is almost twice
dustrialized countries are having a hard time
making the transition – as was made clear by
the United States’ temporary withdrawal from
President Biden seems to have
the Paris Agreement, for example. recognized the seriousness of the situation:
Joe Biden goes all out he described climate change as
on climate the greatest threat to the national security
After four wasted years with a U.S. admin- of the United States
istration under Donald Trump that was not
even remotely interested in climate issues, the reduction compared to the most recent
now that Joe Biden is in the White House, pledge under Barack Obama.6 Biden also an-
there is a great opportunity to set new, in- nounced that the U.S. would double its annu-
ternational climate justice goals. Even before al climate funding for developing countries by
the U.S. presidential elections in November 2024. In addition, the U.S. announced it would
2020, climate change was one of the main protect 30 percent of its land and water from
themes on Biden’s overall ambitious agenda. human exploitation by 2030, thereby joining
He called it “an existential threat”.5 President the international “30 x 30” initiative that en-
Biden seems to have recognized the serious- joys bipartisan support in the United States
ness of the situation: not only did he rejoin Congress.7 And this is only one of the points
the Paris climate agreement on his very first on which the U.S. can find a common basis for
day in office, and shortly afterward order negotiation with China. These are crucial de-
the decarbonization of the U.S. economy velopments ahead of the United Nations Cli-
(which is to reach net zero by 2050), he also mate Change Conference (26th Conference of
described climate change as the greatest the Parties, COP26) scheduled for November
threat to the national security of the United in Glasgow.
States. Biden named former U.S. Secretary
of State John Kerry as his special envoy for Everyone for the planet?
climate – sending an important signal that
America wants to move forward internation- China announced at the virtual meeting in
ally as well as domestically. At the same time, April that it would cut its carbon emissions
he appointed Gina McCarthy as White House to net zero by 2060. President Xi Jinping also
National Climate Advisor. Her role is to coor- promised that the country would phase out
dinate the administration’s climate efforts, coal from 2026 and by 2030. Considering the
from the military to the diplomatic service otherwise anything but harmonious relation-
to the Department of the Treasury and the ship between China and the United States,
Department of Transportation. She will also this is an important announcement that
lead negotiations with Congress to pass new shows that China, too, seems ready to (help)
climate legislation that will endure and can- tackle the most important global challenge.
ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM 5
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREAT MULTIPLIER
Competition and even rivalry will continue percent reduction by 2030 compared to 2013,
in trade relations, technological and digital up from 26 percent. Canada, too, revised its
growth, and in the respective understanding targets and announced it would reduce emis-
of democracy and human rights. Not only sions by 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
between the U.S. and China, but also against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau underlined
Russia and others. Yet, despite all competition Canada’s existing commitment to reach the
and even antagonism, when it comes to cli- net zero target by 2050. Brazilian President
mate protection cooperation must be at the Jair Bolsonaro promised that Brazil would
forefront. Joe Biden has already understood achieve climate neutrality by 2050 – ten years
that climate change is an opportunity to build earlier than previously stated. Illegal logging in
infrastructure (from roads to ports and energy Brazil’s rainforests is also set to stop by 2030.
grids), and he wishes to transform his coun- Seen against the emission reduction targets
try’s economy accordingly. He is responding that had been set before, these are moves in
to the realization that dramatic climate the right direction. But experts believe this
change is not only a threat to the environment still will not be enough to reach the overall tar-
that transcends borders, it is also throwing get and stop global warming or keep it below
the global financial and economic system into 1.5 degrees Celsius.
disorder.
When Germany’s Federal Constitutional Geopolitical framework
Court ruled in April 2021 that the country’s and impacts
Climate Change Act (Klimaschutzgesetz) was
inadequate, the German government reacted Climate change is entwined with current glob-
swiftly with ambitious improvements. Svenja al challenges such as the pandemic, globaliza-
tion, the threat to democracy, and energy de-
Dramatic climate change is not pendence. Its impacts can now be observed in
all regions of the world. It is not only the poor-
only a threat to the environment that est countries or remote regions like the Arctic
transcends borders, it is also that are affected. Climate change affects the
entire planet. It acts as a threat multiplier for
throwing the global financial and political instability in some of the most vola-
tile regions of the world. Negative impacts will
economic system into disorder be felt in the form of health risks, food prices
and availability, and economic competitive-
Schulze, Environment Minister, and Olaf ness. Countless people will pay for climate
Scholz, Finance Minister and the SPD’s can- change with their lives. And last but not least,
didate for Chancellor, immediately proposed it will devour enormous financial resources.
new targets. The current climate targets now All of this is not in some distant future – it is
provide for a 65 percent emission reduction by already happening, and it will become expo-
2030 instead of the planned 55 percent, rising nentially worse.
to 88 percent by 2040. Climate neutrality is to Let us take the example of Syria, whose on-
be achieved by 2045 instead of 2050.8 At the going, climatically enhanced conflict started
12th Petersberg Climate Dialogue, which also in 2011. Before the civil uprising, there were
took place in April, Chancellor Angela Merkel several factors that contributed to tensions
additionally proposed an international CO₂ within society. Between the late 1980s and the
pricing system to help curb global CO₂ emis- end of the century, several droughts plagued
sions. Reactions to the pricing system propos- the country, and rivers began to dry up. In
al were rather mixed. addition, around 1.2 to 1.4 million refugees
Other top 10 greenhouse gas emitters have arrived in Syria during the Iraq war.9 In 2005,
also increased their emission reduction tar- a record-breaking five-year drought began,
gets. Japan, for example, is aiming for a 46 causing water shortages, economic losses,
6 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21
and negative social consequences. The com- President Biden stands behind his ambi-
bination of the climate-induced drought, mi- tious USD 2 trillion climate package, but it
gration flows from Iraq and the social tensions needs to pass both chambers of Congress
arising from these two factors contributed to before he can sign it into law. If it succeeds,
the turmoil in Syria.10 it would send a signal not only to China but
Geopolitical rivalries can be additional ob- to the entire international community that
stacles in the fight against climate change. the United States is indeed back. Now the U.S.
The world’s largest countries tend to be geo and China will need to compartmentalize their
politically hostile toward each other. There relations, otherwise the joint fight against cli-
have been brief periods of rapprochement mate change cannot work. It is not that sys-
between Russia and the U.S. – they were al- tem conflicts, trade disputes, human rights,
lies from 1941-1945 in the war against Nazi
Germany, and in more recent history both
countries worked toward a better understand-
Europe and many other countries see the
ing in the immediate post-Soviet period from United States as occupying a leadership and
1992 to the end of the century. But they keep
reverting to a competitive stance. guidance role, but many other states will
Like Russia, Saudi Arabia, not an easy part- look more to China when it comes to imple-
ner for the United States either, relies heavily
on fossil fuel sales. Fossil fuels account for the menting or increasing their own targets
lion’s share of government revenues in both
countries. Their governments know that this Taiwan, technological competition and other
cannot be a permanent source of revenue; the potential sources of tension should become
fossil resources are expected to run out in a irrelevant, but they should be addressed and
matter of decades. But so far neither country discussed through other diplomatic chan-
has shown the necessary political nor, as it nels. Under no circumstances should the fight
were, the entrepreneurial will to embrace the against climate change be allowed to become
transformation and start to rethink. This in a political football, to be exploited by states
turn may have considerable consequences for in retaliation for other points of difference, or
the stability and security of their regions. to gain advantages. At a press conference on
Of course, China is most important when it March 7, Wang Yi, China’s highest-ranking dip-
comes to international security. The United lomat, indicated that his country was willing
States and China are the world’s largest econ- to cooperate openly with the United States
omies, and together are responsible for 43 on the issue of climate change. A first signal
percent of global carbon dioxide emissions.11 was the announcement of improved targets
Europe and many other countries see the at the Leaders’ Summit on Climate convened
United States as occupying a leadership and by President Biden on Earth Day. While this on
guidance role, but there are many other states its own does not bring positive results, it does
that will look more to China when it comes to offer the opportunity for further cooperation
implementing or increasing their own targets. in this area.
China seems ready to take necessary steps to It would also be important for China to halt
reduce emissions at home, while at the same its global fossil fuel based industrial invest-
time moving into a vanguard position. Both ments via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),
countries do not only need to rigorously im- or switch to renewable energy. Since the BRI
plement the existing reduction targets, but was established, China has invested billions of
they must also gradually increase them. Only U.S. dollars in fossil fuel projects worldwide.12
then can the U.S. and China set an example This is clearly heading the wrong way in the
that other countries will take seriously, which fight against climate change. A first positive
will move them to actually implement the tar- step was the Belt and Road Initiative Interna-
gets they have set for themselves. tional Green Development Coalition (BRIGC),
ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM 7
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREAT MULTIPLIER
founded in 2019, which aims for sustainable, have been contractually binding – includ-
green development throughout the BRI pro- ing the emission reduction targets. Not only
ject and participating countries, and supports are there no internationally applicable legal
the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustaina- remedies, there is often a lack of political will
ble Development. to take global issues seriously and consider
Furthermore, most developing countries them in the long term – rather than for just
will need a huge amount of aid – not only fi- one term in office. Donald Trump’s presiden-
nancial – to be able to counter climate change. cy made this clear. The sheer Herculean task
The United States and China are needed here. of tackling the problem of climate change,
Existing instruments (Adaptation Fund, Green the costs involved and the ease of counting
Climate Fund) should be expanded in the on ignorance – which should not be under-
long term and new structures developed. In estimated – could always obstruct voluntary
this context, Biden has announced the mo- climate agreements or even condemn them
bilization of public and private sector fund- to failure.
ing to advance net zero and help vulnerable The knowledge that the transition to cli-
countries cope with climate impacts.13 mate-neutral economies will consume enor-
mous financial resources worldwide leads
The role of the United Nations some states to choose caution, pursue low
targets, or simply ignore targets. The right
Since the UN Framework Convention on Cli- incentives are lacking, as are penalties for
mate Change (UNFCCC) entered into force in non-compliance. Joe Biden sees climate
1994, its ultimate objective has been “to sta- change as an opportunity not only to save
bilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the the planet, but also to rebalance his coun-
atmosphere at a level that will prevent dan- try’s economy, making it climate-neutral but
gerous human interference with the climate growth-oriented at the same time. The United
system, in a time frame which allows ecosys- Nations can learn from this and set the right
tems to adapt naturally and enables sustain- incentives. They should set a binding agenda
able development.”14 and create instruments that are not only co-
Since then, the international community ordinated globally, but also monitored. This
has met once a year under the UNFCCC for requires financial incentives, for example,
multilateral negotiations. The 2020 event and a catalog of sanctions. Both could ensure
was only canceled because of the pandemic, the continuous and long-term participation
and the meetings will now continue in No- of the negotiating countries.
vember 2021 in Glasgow as “COP26”. Despite The renowned British naturalist Sir David
the universally acclaimed successes of the Attenborough addressed the members of
Paris Agreement (COP21) for example, none the UN Security Council during a debate on
of the results negotiated in the past 26 years February 23, 2021, with a sobering message:
“If we continue on our current path, we will
face the collapse of everything that gives us
The Author our security: food production, access to fresh
Michael Czogalla is Senior Program Officer for water, habitable ambient temperature, and
Foreign and Security Issues at the Washington, DC ocean food chains,” he said, adding “and if
office of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Before joining
the natural world can no longer support the
the FES, he taught at the University of Nebraska,
most basic of our needs, then much of the
Lincoln (2000-1) and published the book “Behind the
rest of civilization will quickly break down.”15
Laughter”, which deals with social controversies in U.S.
popular culture. He regularly writes on transatlantic The consequences of climate change, if they
foreign and security policy issues. He holds an M.A. in are not prevented, may lead to social and
American Studies, Political Science and German Studies political instability, harm the international
from the University of Leipzig. He is also a graduate of economy, bring about demographic changes
the Center for Digital Imaging Arts (CDIA) at Boston University. and mass migration, and trigger civil as well
8 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21
as military conflicts. For these reasons, the 1 Cf. United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (2019): “Cut Global Emissions by 7.6
UN Security Council, which is responsible for
Percent Every Year for Next Decade to Meet 1.5°C Paris
maintaining international peace and security, Target – UN Report”. https://unfccc.int/news/
has been addressing climate-related securi- cut-global-emissions-by-76-percent-every-year-for-
next-decade-to-meet-15degc-paris-target-un-report (all
ty risks since 2007. Such risks feature prom- links accessed May 28, 2021).
inently in the Council’s deliberations, and 2 Guterres, António (2020): Foreword in: “The State of
since that time there have been various res- the Global Climate 2020”. https://public.wmo.int/en/
our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-
olutions emphasizing the negative impacts of climate
climate change, and calling for further steps 3 Lindsey, Rebecca (2020): “Climate Change: Atmo-
to be taken. spheric Carbon Dioxide”. https://www.climate.gov/
news-features/understanding-climate/cli-
mate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide
All hopes pinned on Glasgow? 4 Cf. Friedrich, Johannes, Mengpin Ge and Andrew
Pickens (2020): “World’s Top 10 Emitters”. https://
www.wri.org/insights/interactive-chart-shows-changes-
Many climate activists breathed a sigh of relief worlds-top-10-emitters
when Joe Biden took the helm in the White 5 Busby, Joshua, Morgan Bazilian and Florian Krampe
(2021): “Biden called climate change an ‘existential
House. With his commitment to climate pol-
threat.’ Can the U.N. Security Council help?” Washing-
icy, as described above, he will play an im- ton Post, March 2, 2021.
portant role at Glasgow. But what Joe Biden 6 Cf. Sengupta, Somini, and Lisa Friedman (2021): “U.S.
says it will sharply cut emissions and increase funds to
is shaping now must also endure. Whatever vulnerable countries to fight climate change”. New York
form the agreement takes, whatever new tar- Times. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/22/us/
gets are set, everything must be legally under- biden-earth-day-climate-summit
7 Cf. Pike, Lili (2021): “Biden wants to triple protected
pinned and binding. The next U.S. president lands”. https://www.vox.com/22251851/joe-biden-exec-
cannot again relinquish the leading role at the utive-orders-climate-change-conservation-30-by-2030
stroke of a pen, and condemn the globe to cli- 8 Cf. “Klimaschutzgesetz 2021 – Generationenvertrag für
das Klima”. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/
mate disaster. themen/klimaschutz/klimaschutzgesetz-2021-1913672
By 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions 9 Cf. Kenyon Lischer, Sarah (2008): “Security and
should be halved. By mid-century, humanity’s Displacement in Iraq: Responding to the Forced
Migration Crisis”. Quarterly Journal: International
net greenhouse gas emissions should reach Security. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/
zero. That is the goal, but the actual individual security-and-displacement-iraq-responding-forced-mi-
targets are divergent: not every country sets gration-crisis
10 Cf. Holleis, Jennifer (2021): “How climate change
the same targets, nor are they always pursued paved the way to war in Syria”. https://www.dw.com/
with the necessary resolve. en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-war-in-syr-
ia/a-56711650
Expectations for COP26 in Glasgow could
11 Arvin, Jariel (2021): “How the US and China can
hardly be higher. 2020 was one of the three jump-start cooperation on climate change”. https://
warmest years ever recorded. Ocean warming www.vox.com/22319488/china-biden-alaska-blinken-
climate-change
is at an all-time high. In a talk hosted by the 12 Cf. Hillman, Jennifer and Alex Tippett (2021): “The
London School of Economics, UNFCCC Exec- Climate Challenge and Chinaʼs Belt and Road Initiative”.
utive Secretary Patricia Espinosa summarized https://www.cfr.org/blog/climate-challenge-and-chi-
nas-belt-and-road-initiative
the four main goals of COP26: keeping prom- 13 Cf. U.S. Department of State (2021): “Leaders Summit
ises to developing countries (including USD on Climate”. https://www.state.gov/leaders-sum-
100 billion annually in climate aid); finally and mit-on-climate/day-1/
14 UNFCCC Secretariat: “About the Secretariat”. https://
fully implementing the Paris Agreement; fur- unfccc.int/about-us/about-the-secretariat
ther reducing emissions and raising climate 15 World Meteorological Organization (2021): “UN
ambitions; and engaging observers and im- Security Council debates climate change”. https://public.
wmo.int/en/media/news/un-security-council-de-
partial stakeholders.16 bates-climate-change
Glasgow cannot be a second Paris, a busi- 16 Cf. Espinosa, Patricia (2021): “Our Slim Window of
Opportunity – what the climate change agenda must
ness as usual. Glasgow must set new targets
achieve in 2021”. Lecture, London School of Economics
that match the reality – and are therefore and Political Science. (Audio). https://www.lse.ac.uk/
much higher and more ambitious than those lse-player?id=c490ba04-dfee-4205-aa82-01ef2a7bfb4c
currently in place.
ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM 9
CLIMATE CHANGE
AS A RISK AMPLIFIER Author: Michael Brzoska
ON THE LINKS BETWEEN Introduction
CLIMATE CHANGE CONFLICT When former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize
in 2007, the decision was met with great ap-
proval by some, and heavy criticism by oth-
ers. Criticism was sparked mainly by the fact
that at the time of the award, no general
empirical relationship could be established
between the increase in greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere and the prevalence of violent
conflicts. On the contrary: compared with the
1990s, the number of armed conflicts had
decreased significantly while climate change
had progressed. Looking to the future, critics
were also sceptical as to whether the close
connection posited by the Nobel Committee
between climate change-induced environ-
mental changes and armed conflicts really ex-
isted. Those on the other side of the argument
pointed to a number of recent wars such as
the one in Darfur in Sudan, and to the conflict
potential associated with scarce resources
such as arable land and water, whose availa-
Abstract
bility – in their view – will decrease because of
climate change.1
Changes in the natural environment caused by climate change affect
Since 2007, the question of the links between
people’s living conditions as well as the conditions for managing and climate change and conflicts has become the
resolving conflicts of interest. Climate change is therefore also a risk subject of scientific studies and publications
factor for violent conflicts. However, its links with economic, social and now numbering in the hundreds.2 While the
political conflict drivers are complex, and its significance therefore results of these studies and the conclusions
cannot be determined in isolation. For the foreseeable future at least, drawn from them are still mixed, a number of
whether or not a conflict escalates is determined not so much by the broadly accepted findings can be identified.
magnitude of environmental changes, as by how conflict-prone the These are presented below.
situation is in which these changes take place. In general, the risk of
conflict is especially high at the local level, because this is where climate Climate change as a
change has the biggest impacts – for example in extreme weather threat or risk
events or as a result of rising sea levels. The close intertwining of the
The different reactions to the 2007 Nobel
impacts of climate change on the environment with other conflict fac-
Peace Prize stem from two basic positions in
tors presents a wide range of opportunities for reducing the risk of con-
the analysis of conflicts. One emphasizes en-
flict induced by climate change. However, the conditions for successfully vironmental factors, the other underlines the
mitigating the conflict risk diminish as climate change advances. Risk societal dimension as the decisive factor in
factors beyond climate change itself include the dangers of over- and the emergence of conflicts and their escala-
underestimating its significance for the occurrence of conflict. Exagger- tion into violence. In the scientific debate sur-
ation can lead to militarization, while underestimation can mean a rounding the links between climate change
failure to take useful steps to mitigate the climate change risk factor. and conflicts, these two basic positions are
10 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21strongly associated with the disciplines in been a priority for the government up until
which researchers are based. While authors that time. The rebels in southern Sudan had
with a background of climate research or ecol- gained the upper hand militarily, and in the
ogy generally regard environmental factors as Machakos Protocol of 2002, the government
dominant, conflict researchers tend to focus had made far-reaching concessions that
on the human-made conflict process. opened the way to ending the fighting and
The two basic positions are well illustrated independence for the south. An important
by the example of the impact of drought on tool used by the government to take control
the war in Darfur from 2003.3 The outbreak of in Darfur was to recruit and arm paramilitary
this war, which resulted in several thousand units – the Janjaweed – who used brutal vio-
deaths, had been preceded by repeated vio- lence, mainly against civilians. Thus the esca-
lent clashes over land and water. These main-
ly involved farmers and cattle herders, but Climate-related environmental
had also taken place between different ethnic
groups. Population growth, but also a trend of changes are by no means accompanied
diminishing annual rainfall – which was man-
ifested particularly in the form of recurring
by an intensification of
droughts – had exacerbated these conflicts conflicts or even wars everywhere
over the decades. Yet this did not result in
numbers of victims on the same scale as was lation of conflict in Darfur did not result from
seen after 2003. After 2007, following negotia- environmental changes directly, but was the
tions and agreements, the fighting subsided. consequence of political decisions instead.
Not least, this also happened because a peace On the other hand, it took place in an environ-
force comprising several thousand troops was ment trending toward an increasing scarcity
stationed in the region. Currently the situation of land and water.
in Darfur is largely calm. However, the number Other examples, such as the significance of
of displaced persons remains very high, and a drought in the northeast of Syria for the still
there are ongoing local battles among armed ongoing war in that country,4 or of disasters in
groups and with government units. the Philippines for local fighting,5 reveal a sim-
Declining rainfall and recurring droughts ilar picture. While it is true that environmental
have placed people’s lives in Darfur under changes linked to climate change preceded
increasing strain over the decades. The link the armed conflicts, the actual lines of conflict
between this deterioration of environmen- lay elsewhere – in particular, they were strug-
tal conditions and global climate change is gles over political power.
obvious. Therefore, from an ecological per- Moreover, climate-related environmental
spective, the war that started in 2003 was an changes are by no means accompanied by an
eruption of violence between groups over in- intensification of conflicts or even wars every-
creasingly scarce water and usable land. Ban where. In South America too, for example, cli-
Ki-moon, the then Secretary-General of the mate change is affecting the conditions under
United Nations, called the Darfur conflict the which people live – e.g. in the Andes. But still
first climate war. there has been no increase in armed conflicts.
However, the war did not follow one of the Nevertheless, the impacts of climate
many droughts. It came after a series of com- change are not irrelevant. They are not deter-
paratively rainy years. Nor was it triggered by minant, though.6 There are two reasons why
one of the frequent local clashes. Rather it this is the case. Firstly, the impacts of climate
was a deliberate effort by the Sudanese cen- change are relevant almost exclusively in plac-
tral government in Khartoum to gain control es where conflicts of interest between differ-
over Darfur – a province in which it had had ent groups already existed before. Here they
little presence until then. This was made pos- can intensify disputes, for example by making
sible by the ending of another war, which had water or fertile land scarce, or affecting their
ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM 11CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREAT MULTIPLIER
distribution between groups. Secondly, even change has an influence on the occurrence of
in such situations, the people affected have conflicts in the world in general, the question
various response options open to them. For of its significance for current, never mind fu-
example, they can fight over the diminish- ture developments remains a question with
ing fertile land, or they can agree to share its varied answers.
use. Apart from the intensity of conflicts, an An interesting attempt to shine some light
important factor determining the prevailing on this issue was made a few years ago by
response is the existence of institutions for researchers from Stanford University in Cali-
dealing with and managing conflicts. Where fornia, USA.7 They held a retreat for scientists
there are widely accepted ways of reconciling who had published prominent research on
the interests of different groups, the likelihood the link between climate change and conflicts,
of conflict escalation is reduced. Other factors with very different findings in some cases. The
also influence response patterns, for example scientists were asked to discuss what signifi-
the relative shifts in wealth and income asso- cance they thought climate change had, com-
ciated with environmental changes, or the ex- pared to other risk factors, for the occurrence
ploitation of conflicts by political actors who of conflicts now and in the future.
seek to augment their own power. Even with this approach, only a rough es-
Researchers with different disciplinary back- timate of the relative importance of climate
grounds can agree that from this perspective, change as a risk factor for armed conflicts
climate change is a risk factor for armed con- can be obtained. But it is interesting to note
flicts among many others. How significant it that despite differences in detail, the experts
agreed on a number of points in their as-
Given the close intertwining of sessments. For example, they agreed that
climate change is currently far less important
environmental changes with other risk than other risk factors, such as low per-capi-
ta income, the presence of ethnic conflict, or
factors for the escalation of conflicts, weak statehood. Estimates of the contribu-
it is very difficult to assess or quantify the tion made by climate change to conflict risk
in the recent past ranged from 3 percent to 20
influence of climate change percent, although all researchers expressed
a high degree of uncertainty. They agreed
is depends partly on the relative importance that the significance of climate change will
of environmental changes and the respective increase in the future. Most expected a weak
economic, social and political contexts, and to moderate increase in its significance, with
partly on the choices between escalation and a global temperature rise of 2 °Celsius, or a
de-escalation made by the relevant actors. moderate increase in a 4 °C scenario.8
Thus to explain why environmental chang-
es linked to climate change are occasionally Local, regional and
important for the escalation of conflicts, we global contexts
must consider both the ecological, economic,
social and political initial conditions, and the As well as a growing consensus on the gener-
specific conflict process in the conflict region. al significance of climate change for conflicts,
Given this close intertwining of environ- there is also increasing recognition that the
mental changes with other risk factors for risks of climate change differ not only from re-
the escalation of conflicts, it is very difficult gion to region, but also on different levels of
to assess or quantify the influence of climate societal organization.
change. This is true for case studies as much Drinking water offers a good illustration
as for quantitative studies, which use statis- of this last point. Contrary to what is often
tical methods to analyze many of their cas- claimed in sensationalist articles and books,
es. Even though it is undisputed that climate water has very rarely caused wars between
12 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21states in the past. At the same time, there is in fragile states, where central institutions do
little likelihood that this will change in the fu- not function well either. For example, when
ture.9 Even where this does seem possible, for Typhoon Haiyan struck some islands of the
example because the building of dams could Philippines in November 2003, insufficient aid
exacerbate water shortages – as currently with delivered to the victims triggered armed con-
the construction of a Nile dam in Ethiopia – flicts between government troops and armed
past experience suggests that an amicable groups.11
settlement is far more likely than armed con- Yet it is not only local environmental chang-
flict. One reason for this is that the costs of war es that can cause local effects. In our globally
would be far higher than the losses of water, in networked world, negative consequences of
terms of a loss of income for farmers and other climate change can show up in very different
users of the water, that could be expected in
negotiations. The situation is different when
the issue is no longer one of distribution of
In our globally networked world, negative
water but of absolute scarcity, or where agree- consequences of climate change can show
ments on sharing are not possible because of
the lack of any institutions able to sanction up in very different places than where the
breaches of those agreements. Both are par- environmental changes occur. Migration
ticularly common at the local level. Confron-
tations over water usage in the Sahel zone, for and prices are important transmission belts
example, occur mostly where there are no tra-
ditional institutions such as councils of elders, places than where the environmental chang-
or modern ones such as courts, to organize a es occur. Migration and prices are important
reconciliation of interests. On the other hand, transmission belts. Environmental changes
water scarcity often leads to greater trust and in one region, especially natural disasters,
cooperation between population groups.10 can lead to conflicts in regions that people
Water is only one of various environmen- migrate into. However, the importance of
tal changes linked to climate change. Others this conflict factor is highly disputed in the
include the loss of usable land due to rising scientific literature.12 One example of the sig-
sea levels and salinization, or the expansion nificance of prices for local conflicts is the re-
of drylands. Here too, local conflicts are more peated “bread riots” in numerous countries of
frequent than national or international ones. the Global South. Since local prices for bread-
An important reason for this is the relative sig- making cereals can be strongly dependent on
nificance of environmental changes such as world market supply and demand, a sharp
reduced rainfall, natural disasters or rising sea drop in production in one region of the world
levels on people’s living conditions and live- can have a considerable impact elsewhere.
lihoods. While the impacts may be very great Some authors have cited this mechanism as
locally, with a few exceptions such as small a factor in the Arab Spring of 2011. Because
Pacific island states, they are rarely as impor- of droughts in Russia, China and several other
tant for larger geographical units. Another countries of the Global North, world market
reason is that greater diversity of employment prices for bread cereals had risen far above
opportunities and lifestyles increases the ca- average in the fall of 2010, fueling protests in
pacity to compensate for problems caused by a series of Arab states.13
climate-related environmental changes, for A major exception to this focus on local
example in agricultural production. This tends conflicts is suggested frequently in the Arctic.
to be the case in larger units. Finally, institu- The impacts of climate change in the Arctic
tions for conflict management and resolution are fundamentally different from those in
are often particularly weak at the local level. most regions of the world. Here there is no
However, local conflicts can also develop na- widespread deterioration of conditions for in-
tional and regional dimensions, particularly come generation. Indeed they are improving
ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM 13CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREAT MULTIPLIER
– for everyone except the indigenous popula- Conflict mitigation and
tion. The increased use of shipping passages peacebuilding
in the Arctic, and in particular the possible
exploitation of natural resources, hold con- The close linkages between climate-related
siderable potential for conflict. However, the environmental changes and social and po-
Arctic states have so far managed to resolve litical risk factors offer a variety of starting
their conflicting interests through treaties. points for measures and activities to reduce
Apart from the Sahel, the main regions the conflict potential of climate change.15
that have already turned into conflict risk First and foremost are measures to limit
hotspots due to climate change today are to the extent of climate change. Impacts on the
be found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. environment and the associated strains on
the cohesion of societies and relations be-
Apart from the Sahel, the main tween states grow with the degree of global
warming. Accordingly, it is also significant
regions that have already turned into for the occurrence of conflicts in the future
conflict risk hotspots due to climate
whether the international community is able
to limit the global temperature increase to
change today are to be found in South 2 °C or even less, compared to the pre-indus-
trial era.16
Asia and Southeast Asia The impacts of climate change on the
physical environment and the availability of
In these regions, strong negative impacts resources such as land and water can also be
on people’s income as a result of droughts, modified by taking active measures. Disaster
floods, storms and other natural disasters risk reduction plays an important role here,
converge with existing economic, social or because even gradual climate change – as
political conflict lines. In all these regions, seen for example in a rising sea level – will in-
income levels tend to be low and the main itially cause damage primarily in extreme sit-
source of livelihood is agriculture. For the uations, in this case storm surges. Adaptation
future, other hotspots are identified where measures are therefore a second instrument
creeping climate change will lead to environ- for influencing how climate change affects
mental changes via a permanent decrease the occurrence of conflicts.
in precipitation and rising sea levels – such Projects aimed at strengthening societies’
as the Mediterranean region and southern resilience to climate-related environmental
Africa.14 changes go further than adaptation meas-
ures. For example, rapid economic recovery
after a disaster can prevent conflicts from
forming between social groups who have
been affected to differing degrees.
Alongside these measures, aimed at lim-
The Author iting environmental changes resulting from
climate change, are those aimed at contain-
Michael Brzoska is a senior research fellow at the
ing the social and political forces of conflict
Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH)
escalation. In principle, these are no differ-
at the University of Hamburg. Until 2016, he was
ent from what has proven useful in conflict
Scientific Director of the IFSH. He is also a senior
research associate of the Stockholm International management and peacebuilding over the
Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). He studied economics course of decades, ranging from programs to
and political science before working at various peace stabilize the economy, to strengthening insti-
and conflict research institutes. From 2007 until 2017, tutions to deal with conflicts, and to activi-
he was Principal Investigator in the climate research ties intended to bring about reconciliation
cluster of excellence at the University of Hamburg. between adversarial social groups.
14 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21However, it seems obvious to combine movements for more climate protection on
conflict management and peacebuilding the other. Emphasis of the conflict risk of cli-
measures with activities aimed at mitigating mate change proved to be a powerful argu-
environmental risks. ment for mobilizing for more climate protec-
This is attempted in a particularly ac- tion. But this came at the price of increasing
tive way in “environmental peacebuilding”, fears about mass migration to Europe and
where, for example, measures to protect the United States, and turning former and
the environment are combined with pro- active military personnel into dominant pro-
grams for reconciliation between adver- moters of the dangers of climate change. So
sarial groups. In practice, such a combined far, admittedly, there have been few signs of
approach is difficult to implement, and can a “securitization” of climate change, meaning
produce unintended consequences.17 For roughly a widespread adoption of the view
one thing, activities to mitigate environmen- that climate change is an existential threat,
tal risks and social and political conflict risks which can only be countered by eliminating
often compete with each other. One example democratic processes and employing coer-
would be the construction of dams, which cion. There has also been little sign of any
reduces the risk of flooding, but at the same activities aimed at countering the risks of
time involves the forced resettlement of climate change by military means.19 On the
people. Another example is the large-scale other hand, the fear of a huge wave of cli-
cultivation of crops for energy production,
which is often associated with a shortage of
land for food production by small farmers.
The fear of a huge wave of climate
Conversely, peacebuilding measures – such migrants into Europe and the United States
as those aimed at stimulating the economy
in post-conflict societies – can also worsen is stubbornly persistent in politics and
environmental conditions. Secondly, actors society, even though it is not supported by
who are concerned with environmental risks
and social and political conflict risks are of- analyses of migration movements to date
ten isolated from one another. An example of
this is the different objectives of internation- mate migrants into Europe and the United
al development and aid organizations, which States is stubbornly persistent in politics and
usually have a clear focus on a limited field society, even though it is not supported by
of activity. analyses of migration movements to date.
This has become an important factor in the
Dangers of “securitization” migration policies of a number of states.
and underestimating Exaggerations of the importance of climate
the climate conflict risk change also serve the interests of politically
failing decision-makers and elites. They can
The complexity of the link between climate blame a factor beyond their control for poor
change and conflicts not only complicates living conditions and protests – even escala-
empirical analysis and efforts to mitigate tion into armed conflicts – for which they are
conflicts influenced by climate change, it in fact culpable. The conflict in Darfur is an
also leads to underestimation and exaggera- example of this, too.
tion of the importance of this link.18 Alongside exaggerations of the risks to
This was particularly clear in the second peace and security, a downplaying of cli-
half of the first decade of this century. An im- mate change can be seen – both in general
portant reason for this was the attitude of a and specifically when it comes to questions
number of governments, led by the U.S. ad- of social cohesion and dangerous conflicts.
ministration under George W. Bush, on the For example, the Trump administration in
one hand, and the strengthening of social the U.S. rejected any kind of attempt on the
ETHICS AND ARMED FORCES 01/21 ETHICSANDARMEDFORCES.COM 15CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREAT MULTIPLIER
practical, political or diplomatic level to link conflicts. Yet even in the foreseeable future,
climate change with conflicts, because they these risks are likely to become dominant
disputed the very notion of anthropogenic only where there is a high level of dependence
climate change. Other actors in international on agricultural production, and where other
politics, while accepting that climate change lines of conflict intersect with those over the
affects living conditions for many people, distribution of the negative consequences of
are unwilling to see this as a relevant con- environmental changes.
The close intertwining of climate change
Some actors in international with other conflict factors opens up a wide
range of opportunities for mitigating the risk
politics, while accepting that climate of conflict. Here again, however, the condi-
change affects living conditions tions for success diminish as climate change
increases. This is because the close entangle-
for many people, are unwilling to see ment also means that important brakes on
conflict escalation, such as trust between dif-
this as a relevant conflict risk ferent social groups and institutions for con-
flict management and resolution, lose their
flict risk. For example, not only the United power to shape events as climate change in-
States, but also Russia and China prevented tensifies.
Germany, during its two-year membership of
the UN Security Council in 2019/2020, from
successfully introducing a resolution that
identified climate change as a threat to inter-
national peace and security. This angered a
number of states particularly affected by cli-
mate change, such as the small Pacific island
states, who would like to see the internation-
al community do more.
Climate change as a present
and future risk
It makes little sense to view climate change
in isolation from other conflict factors. Its im-
pacts on societies are determined to too great
an extent by people’s dependence on envi-
ronmental conditions, their ability to adapt
to environmental changes, how the negative
consequences of such changes are distribut-
ed among different social groups, and how
these distribution issues are perceived by the
population – to mention just a few important
factors.
However, with a rising global temperature
and its consequences for climate and weath-
er, the expected magnitude of environmental
changes also increases, especially in the form
of extreme weather events, but also longer-
term changes such as rainfall and sea lev-
el. This tends to increase the risks of armed
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