European Property Market Outlook - Q3 2020 - Aberdeen Standard ...
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For professional investors only, in Switzerland for Qualified
investors only – not for use by retail investors or advisers.
European Property
Market Outlook
Q3 2020
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02 European Real Estate Market Outlook
“there is still likely to be substantial long-term damage from the
crisis, while the risk of a second wave of the virus remains. ”
Executive summary:
• The Eurozone economy is staging a fairly strong, albeit still
partial, rebound from its enormous coronavirus-induced
contraction. Consumption and sentiment have improved more
rapidly than production and construction, while Germany and
France have been recovering faster than Italy and Spain.
That said, there is still likely to be substantial long-term damage
from the coronavirus crisis, while the risk of a second wave of the
virus remains.
European Real Estate Market Outlook
in the context of Covid-19 • The true condition of occupier markets is tricky to read across
20 July 2020 Europe. The economic impact has been huge and so, too, has the
fiscal policy response. This has left businesses and consumers
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) is the most
suspended in an artificially robust position, which will not be
acute challenge that the world has faced in many years.
sustained indefinitely. Many governments have withdrawn
The virus has spread across most countries around the world.
lockdown restrictions fully or partially, with social distancing
The outbreak has had a considerable impact on economic
measures generally still observed. This is allowing some of the
activity and we are in the middle of a sharp global recession.
fiscal support to be removed, such as furlough schemes and
Over recent months, many governments introduced
other income support mechanisms.
significant steps to stem the spread of the virus with varying
degrees of restriction on movement, both domestically and • Capital flows held up surprisingly well in early 2020, but have
internationally. These barriers have gradually been lifted in tailed off more recently. Comparing the first half of 2020 with the
many countries and parts of the economy have reopened same period of 2019, volumes are down by 11% to €116 billion for
with some positive signs of a rebound in activity. the first half of 2020. The number of deals fell by 22%, highlighting
However, evidence of an increase in infections in areas where that large deals are holding up the average. Investors are
social distancing measures have been reduced means we extending exclusivity periods on live transactions, placing their
expect economic and social disruption will persist until a acquisition activities on hold to take a wait-and-see approach.
vaccine is widely available. Governments and central banks • Looking ahead, our base case suggests All Property returns of
have implemented unprecedented fiscal and monetary 1% per annum over the first three years and 3% per annum over
stimulus to counter the economic effects of the virus. five years. The spread in forecast returns between sectors is
The outlook remains highly uncertain. It is very difficult to large. The biggest decline in values in 2020 is expected for the
hotel sector (-18%), followed closely by the retail sector (-17%).
predict how the virus will affect asset prices and the global
Residential, logistics and offices are expected to demonstrate
economy over the longer term.
stronger fundamentals under the current base case. All sectors
Against this background, we will continue to focus on in-depth aside from residential (1.9%) are expected to see values fall over
research and analysis, enabling us to adjust risk strategies and the year to June 2021.
portfolios appropriately, as and when this is needed. We will,
• Our top picks remain private rented residential and logistics,
of course, also keep investors informed as our thinking
both of which retain strong income characteristics and
evolves. You can find our latest insights and updates at
supportive long-term structural trends. We believe assets that
https://www.aberdeenstandard.com/en/insights-thinking-
carry the most robust cash flows will outperform over the
aloud/coronavirus-updates-and-insights.
short-to-medium term. And given the state of higher economic
uncertainty, we recommend our funds reduce their risk
exposure accordingly.
Economic outlook
• The Eurozone economy is staging a fairly strong, albeit still partial,
rebound from its enormous coronavirus-induced contraction.
Consumption and sentiment have improved more rapidly than
production and construction, while Germany and France have
been recovering faster than Italy and Spain. That said, there is still
likely to be substantial long-term damage from the coronavirus
crisis, while the risk of a second wave of the virus remains.
European Real Estate Market Outlook 03
“The true condition of the occupier markets is tricky to read across
Europe. Market risk has so far been contained, but specific asset
risks are higher.”
• Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 3.6% in the concern prior to this point and tenants delayed leasing
first quarter of 2020, the largest quarterly contraction the bloc transactions. The slowdown seems dramatic, but in reality the
has ever experienced. But given that lockdowns didn’t reach momentum was still strong relative to the historic first-quarter
their greatest extent until late in the quarter and continued into average – the first quarter of 2020 was just 8% below this level.
the second quarter, this is just a taste of the second-quarter GDP Office demand will slow in the short-to-medium term and we
contraction. That said, higher frequency monthly and even daily expect aggregate vacancy rates to rise from 6% to roughly 8% in
activity data suggests that activity has already bottomed and is the next two years. This is still two percentage points below the
now rebounding surprisingly fast as lockdowns are eased. 10% peak in 2008.
Meanwhile, renewed outbreaks of the virus have been local and
• The most supply constrained markets in Europe are Berlin,
contained, rather than large and widespread, suggesting that
Munich and Paris’s central business district (which had rates of
Europe can continue easing restrictions.
less than 2% going into the pandemic). However, this led to rents
• The upshot is that we are forecasting a fairly rapid recovery over climbing sharply in recent years and some markets could
the second half of 2020. But it will be partial relative to the initial potentially be vulnerable to a correction. We have revised our
shock, leaving permanent scars on the economy. office rental growth forecasts down from roughly 2% per annum
(p.a.) over the following three years in December 2019 to -1.2%
• Both monetary and fiscal policy have been deployed in
p.a. from June 2020. Net effective rents could fall further with
considerable size to keep the Eurozone economy on life support,
higher incentives offered by landlords looking to secure tenants
although the bigger picture is that more still needs to be done.
and reduce void risk.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Pandemic Emergency
Purchase Programme lifts asset purchases to around €175 billion • In retail, footfall has recovered sharply in many countries.
per month for the rest of the year and allows the central bank to In mid-March, data from Hystreet.com showed footfall in
deviate from its capital key if necessary. Moreover, the targeted German towns and cities fell to just 19% of the same level
longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) bank-lending in 2019. But by May 2020, this level was in excess of 80%,
programme has seen strong take-up. Together these have compared with the equivalent week in 2019. Indeed, Eurozone retail
contained spread-widening pressures and kept the bank lending sales surged by 17.8% in May, ahead of a 15% forecast.
channel open. But the ECB will probably have to increase asset
• However, retailers were the most likely type of tenant to request
purchases again towards the end of the year as the recovery
rent deferrals, according to our own rent collection data across
loses pace.
Europe. We believe that most in-store retail formats, aside from
• Meanwhile, member states have announced fiscal stimulus supermarkets, will struggle over the short, medium and long
worth around 4% of Eurozone GDP, while the European term against a more cautious consumer backdrop, surging
Commission itself has made another 5% of GDP of support ecommerce sales diversion, and the shortfall in capital
available. These measures are large relative to the past, and have expenditure required to reposition schemes to retain sufficient
been very successful in limiting labour market damage. But more appeal and sales turnover. This will drive up store closures and
still needs to be done. In particular, much rests on the EU leaders increase voids. Some temporary closures could easily slide into
approving the proposed €750 billion recovery fund, which would permanent store closures if it is deemed unprofitable to start
be an important step in mutualising some of the costs of trading again at reduced sales levels. For example, H&M has
the crisis. closed almost 3,500 of its 5,000 stores globally and could end up
closing non-performing stores.
Occupier market trends
• The true condition of the occupier markets is tricky to read • Logistics companies typically operate in a competitive
across Europe. Market risk has so far been contained, but specific environment, which constrains profit margins. Shocks like the
asset risks are higher. The economic impact has been huge and current pandemic are likely to create financial pressures for
so, too, has the fiscal policy response. This has left businesses many. However, the strong demand drivers established prior to
and consumers suspended in an artificially robust position, the pandemic have been accelerated through enforced changes
which will not be sustained indefinitely. Many governments have to the way people source goods. Ecommerce has grown sharply,
withdrawn lockdown restrictions fully or partially, with social with estimates putting total retail sales via online platforms at
distancing measures generally still observed. This is allowing somewhere between 30% and 40% through the lockdown
some of the fiscal support to be removed, such as furlough period. This is an acceleration of roughly five years of
schemes and other income support mechanisms. pre-Covid-19 online retail sales growth. Take-up in the UK
logistics market set a record level in the first half of 2020 and
• The latest available data shows that office take-up across the
while it is too early to see how other markets have performed,
major cities of Europe fell 30% in the first quarter of 2020
anecdotal evidence suggests demand has held up well as
compared with the same period in 2019. While lockdowns did
companies have had to rapidly adapt to new supply chain needs.
not start until late-February or early-March, there was growing04 European Real Estate Market Outlook
“We have revised our office rental growth forecasts down from
roughly 2% per annum (p.a.) over the following three years in
December 2019 to -1.2% p.a. from June 2020.”
• Residential markets have held up well. Few jurisdictions have • Capital flows held up surprisingly well in early 2020, but have
implemented specific rent support schemes, but broader tailed off more recently. Comparing the first half of 2020 with the
income support meant most tenants have been able to continue same period of 2019, volumes are down by 11% to €116 billion in
to meet their obligations. Indeed, only 1% of our residential the first half of 2020. The number of deals fell by 22%,
tenants across Europe have requested a rent deferral through highlighting that large deals are holding up the average.
the pandemic thus far. This could rise when the income support Investors are extending exclusivity periods on live transactions,
schemes are removed, but we believe good-quality residential placing their acquisition activities on hold to take a wait-and-see
property should still be resilient given the lack of housing approach. Additionally, formal and informal travel restrictions
provision in many cities. Further ahead, the performance of the are making any ongoing processes challenging, as due diligence
sector could continue to be supported by low void rates because and site visits remain difficult to perform.
of even lower construction activity resulting from the barriers
• Geographically, the lockdowns have had a specific impact on the
raised by Covid-19. Student accommodation faces greater
ability of some markets to close deals at the same rate as before
challenges than standard rented residential real estate given the
the pandemic. Indeed, Sweden, which did not implement a
barriers to travel and the difficulties in students sitting the
formal lockdown, has seen its share of total European
required assessments – particularly for overseas students.
investment rise from 9% in 2019 to 17% in the first half of 2020.
Care-related residential real estate also has its challenges,
Germany, which has also managed the virus more effectively
but we see more short- and long-term resilience in the more
than some others, has increased its share of total investment
standard senior living sector.
from 20% in 2019, to 28% in the first half of 2020. On the other
Investment market trends hand, Italy has seen its share of total investment slide from
• Some valuation uncertainty clauses still remain in place in 14% to just 3%, over the same time periods.
Europe. They are gradually being lifted, starting with those
• By sector, offices have remained the largest sector, with €56 billion
markets and sectors where comparable evidence is more
invested in the first half of 2020. Residential is now consistently the
prevalent. We expect valuation methodology to return to normal
second-largest sector, with €33 billion invested. Logistics looks set
by the end of the year, on the basis that broad lockdowns do
to challenge the record books once more with over €17 billion
not return.
transacted – almost knocking retail out of third place, with just
European performance signals, Q3 2020
Performance Signals Current Signal Outlook Comment
Demand shock to create a contraction in Eurozone GDP of 15% in
Economic fundamentals 2020, with a partial rebound over 2021 but risker ‘W’ shape recovery
still possible.
Long bond yields are broadly at same level as at beginning of year.
Macro
Margin over bonds Spreads against BBB corporate debt are much tighter, implies greater
scrutiny of riskier income.
Monetary policy that is being deployed in response will not be able to
Monetary policy
fully offset the shock, but rather help the recovery.
Supply likely to be higher than demand as economies slow down.
Supply
Big differences between markets in terms of vacancy risks.
Slowdown in activity after lockdown; large entity transactions,
Flows of capital
residential and logistics deals keeping up relatively well.
Lending much more selective, with large spreads on riskier assets.
Lending
Real Estate Pricing has become more expensive.
Fundraising slowing further, but some new fund launches in the period
Fund flows
and some funds still raising capital.
Volatile market, European real estate investment trusts (REITs) trading
360° view at close to a 10% discount to gross asset value as at 10 June. Many
companies cutting dividends and funds suspending trading.
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, July 2020.
Views reflect our view on Europe excluding the UK. MSCI/IPD; Thomson Reuters Eikon; PMA; RCA; CBRE, Investment Association; Aberdeen Standard Investments, March 2019. 360° view
encompasses direct, indirect, lending and multi-manager views and market signals. Key: Supportive/Neutral/Unsupportive.European Real Estate Market Outlook 05
“In light of the significant policy response we are seeing and the
renewed expectation of ultra-lower-for-longer interest rates,
the growing appetite for longer-duration income from real
estate is a notable theme.”
€18 billion. Within retail, the vast majority of investments were in • Geographically, in the short-to-medium term, we are more
supermarkets, which clearly carry stronger fundamentals than concerned about markets that experienced more pain in the
standard retail and shopping centres. global financial crisis and Eurozone crisis as a result of stress in
the debt markets and sharp falls in liquidity. This would include
• These investment trends are evident in the most recent yield
Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland, while there are concerns
data. According to data from CBRE, over the last six months,
around corporate debt levels in other markets, such as France.
secondary and prime shopping centre yields have increased by
63 basis points (bps) and 46 bps points, respectively. Hotel yields • Taking into account the highly uncertain market environment
have taken the biggest hit from the Covid-19 pandemic, with a rise and the potential for capital value declines, we suggest an
of 90 bps. In complete contrast, logistics yields have increased by extremely risk-averse approach in all aspects of our investments.
just 23 bps. Offices have seen a stronger repricing, with a yield This means reducing financial leverage, development exposure
increase of 14 bps. Residential was the only segment to see yields and focusing on longer and more robust cash flows.
fall, with CBRE estimating a yield compression of six bps.
Medium- to long-term investment themes
• Overall we expect to start to see some falls in capital values in In light of the uncertainty, we are revising our overall outlook
the coming months, particularly where tenant revenues are down. However, we still believe there will be core principles to
more at risk or where bank finance conditions tighten sharply. consider on a sector basis. These support long-term trends in the
This implies more pain for hotels, retail, leisure, student market that should hold true through the pandemic and once it
accommodation and senior living. That said, we are less negative has stabilised.
on capital values than in the previous quarter as the
• Offices: this sector is not immune to the risks from Covid-19.
fundamentals are all surprisingly better than expected.
While other sectors are more exposed in the immediate future,
• There are early signs that bank margins have increased by a more protracted and damaging lockdown could lead to sharp
roughly 50-80 bps so far, with good-quality assets less affected repricing in the sector. Core long-leased offices are preferred for
and lenders starting to price risk assets more cautiously. now and leasing risk should only be taken once a recovery is
However, with swap rates remaining negative, the all-in cost of clearly under way. We anticipate an abrupt halt in almost all
debt has not risen dramatically at this point. Loan-to-value (LTV) construction projects in the near future and this will limit new
ratios are reducing and investors and banks are generally
supply in 2020 and 2021 at least. Flexible offices could carry
looking to trim loan portfolios and reduce financial risks. At this
additional risk given the pain expected for small companies and
point, LTV ratios are less at risk of breach, compared with income
their untested financial strength. These should be avoided.
cover ratios. Banks have so far demonstrated forbearance on
assets where cash flows have temporarily dried up, but this • Industrial and logistics: this was the best sector to allocate to in
could change in a more severe crisis. the last two years. However, the pandemic has abruptly halted
and potentially damaged supply chains for some time.
Performance outlook and risk tolerance
There could be quite a lot of pain from some parts of the sector
• It should be noted that any forecast in the current environment
as logistics companies can be running notoriously tight profit
is highly uncertain. Looking ahead, our base case suggests All
margins. But longer term, we believe that new cohorts of society
Property returns of 1% p.a. over the first three years and 3% p.a.
over five years. This implies a decline in European real estate will have tried ecommerce who might not have otherwise done
values of approximately 8% in the year to the end of March 2020, so and the trend to shop online could accelerate. Furthermore,
resulting in a total return of roughly -3.3% once income returns there could be a growing reticence towards shopping in store
are taken into account. Despite taking a slightly more positive after the difficulties experienced in the last few weeks.
view on yields this quarter, yield impact remains the key driver of This would support our long-term view that there is stronger
capital value declines. But there is also the risk of a temporary performance to come from urban logistics assets.
and permanent loss of rental income from a combination of • Residential: private rented residential is showing resilience.
lower rental levels, lower inflation indexation and higher voids.
However, cash flows will, in part, be damaged by higher
• The spread in forecast returns between sectors is large. unemployment and potentially by rent holidays. We still believe
The biggest decline in values in 2020 is expected for the hotel that this sector should provide investors with long-term cash
sector (-18%), followed closely by the retail sector (-17%). flows. Investors must be wary of lease convention, legislation
Residential, logistics and offices are expected to demonstrate and potential changes to the outlook for cash flows. The best
stronger fundamentals under the current base case. All sectors policy is to be highly focused on good amenities, accessibility
aside from residential (1.9%) are expected to see values fall over and affordability within the local market and not to push income
the year to June 2021. growth assumptions harder than is realistic and fair on tenants.06 European Real Estate Market Outlook
• Long-lease residential: there are strong, long-term demographic • Long income: as mentioned, no asset types will escape the virus
drivers underpinning some types of long-lease residential. This is unscathed. However, in the long term, the current situation
mainly in the form of senior living and student accommodation. reinforces the appeal of defensive assets with durable long-term
However, the pandemic has severely affected the outlook for cash flows. In light of the significant policy response we are
hotels and serviced apartments. These should be treated with seeing and the renewed expectation of ultra-lower-for-longer
caution. Risks around the operators should be the focus of the interest rates, the growing appetite for longer-duration income
underwriting, given the yield premium between operational from real estate is a notable theme. While conventional leases in
assets and leased assets in this space. But with leases longer Europe tend to be shorter than 12 years in duration, there is a
than 20 years often available, these segments can offer considerable number of longer-term leases available. These can
diversification and income duration, albeit investors should wait be accessed through sale and leasebacks, forward-fundings, and
until we know more about the immediate outlook before via sectors such as leased hotels, government offices and other
investing. long-term commitments. We believe funds targeting these types
of inflation-linked cash flows
• Retail: while we are increasingly cautious on the outlook for
will offer lower volatility and attractive risk-adjusted returns for
almost all retail formats, particularly in view of the pandemic,
some pools of investors.
the long-term drivers are different across retail segments. Our
preference is for supermarkets and convenience retail, where
spending should be less vulnerable and where rental levels
remain modest. Shopping centres are most vulnerable to
emerging trends in consumption and have sustained serious
pressure following the Covid-19 pandemic. Large-lot sizes are
also creating a liquidity issue for the sector. Very low-yielding
prime high-street retail is also highly vulnerable to a reduction in
tourist travel and looks overstretched at yields close to 2%, with
rents likely to take a hit.
Contact Us
Craig Wright Stephan Schanz Jon Vetrhus
Head of European Real Estate Senior Real Estate Analyst Real Estate Analyst
Investment Research Europe EuropeThe value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and your investor may get back less than the amount invested. Real estate is a relatively illiquid asset class, the valuation of which is a matter of opinion. There is no recognised market for real estate and there can be delays in realising the value of real estate assets. Important information For professional investors only, in Switzerland for Qualified investors only – not for use by retail investors or advisers. Contact Us To find out more, please speak to your usual contact or visit our website aberdeenstandard.com. Other important information This document is strictly for information purposes and should not be considered as an offer, investment recommendation or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein. This document does not constitute investment research. 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