Key Payments Trends to Watch in 2021 - Whitepaper - Juniper Research

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Key Payments Trends to Watch in 2021 - Whitepaper - Juniper Research
Key Payments Trends to Watch in 2021
                             Whitepaper
Key Payments Trends to Watch in 2021 - Whitepaper - Juniper Research
KEY PAYMENTS TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2021 Whitepaper
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Introduction                                                              fully fleshed out ecosystems. As such, vendors innovating in new
                                                                          payments services must consider the user journey and factors such as
The payments market is highly dynamic, with rapid growth across a         security to ensure success.
number of key segments. This whitepaper will outline some of what we
believe are the most promising areas for payments growth in 2021, that    Established Payment Methods Are Being Disrupted
every stakeholder must be aware of. This whitepaper will explore key
                                                                          While the card is still a dominant payment mechanism and will continue to
trends across 5 key dynamic areas:
                                                                          play an important role, this role is changing and is being joined by a
•   eCommerce Payments                                                    number of other payment methods.

•   Instant Payments                                                      Contactless payments have enjoyed an upsurge in usage during the
                                                                          pandemic, particularly in the US, where adoption had been trailing. This
•   In-vehicle Payments                                                   has benefitted cards and OEM Pay services in particular.

•   Smart Home Payments                                                   There also are other challengers emerging to the traditional role of the
                                                                          card. The increased alignment between Open Banking and instant
•   Digital Ticketing                                                     payments creates a situation where these could become an alternative
                                                                          merchant payment form. As such, 2021 will be critical in seeing how
Key Payments Considerations                                               these alternative methods grow.

In this section, we will summarise some key considerations for payments   COVID-19 Has Changed Customer Behaviour, and it Will not Change
stakeholders going into 2021.                                             Back

User Experience Is Key                                                    2020 has been dominated by the impact of the pandemic, with definite
                                                                          changes in user behaviour, both in terms of in-person payments
One key takeaway from payments is that the user experience is driving
                                                                          (contactless & QR) and remote payments. However, it is clear that this
the adoption and evolution of digital payments. Payment methods are
                                                                          behaviour, while caused by a temporary phenomenon, is around to stay.
increasingly centred around where the user is, in terms of integrating
                                                                          Users are now accustomed to new payment methods which are highly
payments into other areas. This can be seen in smart home payments,
                                                                          convenient and intuitive, so a return to traditional mechanisms is unlikely.
where voice commerce is a big driver, or in in-vehicle payments.
                                                                          Stakeholders must have an effective digital transformation strategy in
Expanding payments to these areas, however, does risk providing a poor    place, or they will be left behind in a highly dynamic sector.
user experience, given that many of these are new and do not yet have
Key Payments Trends to Watch in 2021 - Whitepaper - Juniper Research
KEY PAYMENTS TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2021 Whitepaper
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KEY PAYMENTS TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2021 Whitepaper
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                                                                               purchases continue to climb. Aside from the significant impact of the
eCommerce Payments                                                             COVID-19 pandemic, there are several drivers supporting this growth.
                                                                               These include:
eCommerce payments have surged in response to the COVID-19
                                                                               The Development and Diversification of Online Commerce
pandemic, which has fundamentally altered the way merchants need to
operate. This will be consolidated into 2021, as user behaviours
                                                                               With changing consumer shopping habits, retailers are relying
permanently change.
                                                                               increasingly on their online store – the necessity of having an online
                                                                               presence has been made abundantly clear for many retailers with the
Definition of Terms
                                                                               outbreak of COVID-19 and the changes it has brought to how retailers
Juniper Research defines an eCommerce payment as any remote                    are able to operate. Those without a developed online presence and
payment for physical or digital goods, where the payment is made via a         shopping capability have been left at a disadvantage. The convergence of
digital channel (online, tablet, smartphone, etc).                             physical and digital commerce is driving demand for payments to
                                                                               accommodate omnichannel capabilities.
Current Market Landscape
                                                                               Furthermore, the ability to engage with customers across an increasing
It is now increasingly easy for consumers to seek out the best deals           number of channels means that social media is becoming an increasingly
online or on their mobile devices, and purchase whatever they need             effective sales channel for brands, with social commerce now an
online. This is forcing brick-and-mortar retailers to shift their strategies   important area of growth. Selling via social platforms requires
and increase their digital presence and product availability, with the         eCommerce retailers to be able to deal with transactions taking place
COVID-19 pandemic bringing the fortunes of those lagging behind into           outside their own site, and their payment capabilities need to rise to this
sharp focus. Both brick-and-mortar and online retailers are under              challenge.
pressure to offer increasingly frictionless shopping experiences and to        The Rise of mCommerce
meet shopper demand for omnichannel payments, whilst adhering to
shifting regulatory requirements. The line between physical and digital        The use of mobile devices within eCommerce has grown significantly, as
commerce is becoming increasingly blurred.                                     mobile phone technology has developed. In addition, the use of payment
                                                                               apps, such as Apple Pay and WeChat Pay, has driven mobile phones to
Key Drivers
                                                                               the forefront of the customer shopping journey. The ubiquity of mobile
Although the growth of eCommerce has slowed since the explosive                phones and the ability to reach customers at any time make them an
growth period of the 2000s, the overall volume and value of eCommerce          ideal way for businesses to engage with their customers.
KEY PAYMENTS TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2021 Whitepaper
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One of the key drivers of mobile commerce is the growing consumer               the payments ecosystem, has come a diversification and a requirement to
acceptance of digital wallets, although the specific wallets and payment        meet the changing needs of merchants and consumers. Several
methods vary by country. Juniper Research estimates that in 2020,               alternative online payment methods, such as PayPal, have already
around 78% of eCommerce transactions will take place on a mobile                gained a great deal of traction.
device.
                                                                                For eCommerce payments, a frictionless user experience is key, as are
The Shift Towards Payment Digitisation                                          transaction security and compliance with regulation. Payments are
                                                                                becoming increasingly ‘invisible,’ with consumers expecting to get the
With the proliferation of online stores and the associated increase in
                                                                                product or service they require without having to jump through multiple
competition between merchants, there is a growing requirement for the
                                                                                ‘hoops’ at the checkout. Many of these newer payment methods are
purchase journey to be increasingly smoother for both consumer and
                                                                                seeing strong growth because they create less friction at the checkout
merchant, and for payments to be integrated with inventory and reporting
                                                                                than more traditional payment methods. Having to enter card details on a
(for example); allowing businesses to make better-informed business
                                                                                checkout page is a significant pain point for consumers; payment
decisions.
                                                                                solutions that eliminate the need to enter payment details each time have
The requirement for consumers to be able to pay safely online, using their      much to offer in terms of improving the experience for consumers. These
preferred (often local) method of choice, has further driven the digitisation   key factors are rapidly shifting consumer expectations and requirements
of payments and the further development of alternative payment                  with regard to payments. Alternative payments are increasingly
methods. The security of online payments has always been a key factor,          addressing these shifting needs; becoming more relevant and giving
and the diversification of available payment types has made this more           consumers more payment choices – ultimately increasing their spending
complex; as new payment technologies develop, attack vectors also               power.
increase.
                                                                                Examples of strongly growing alternative payment methods include:
Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has helped accelerate what was               Mobile Wallets and OEM Pay
already a rapid shift toward the digitisation of payments.
                                                                                The mobile wallet space has had significant activity in recent years and
i. Alternative Payments & eCommerce
                                                                                seen vast expansion into new markets. Whilst digital and mobile wallet
For the purposes of this whitepaper, alternative payments within                use at the point of sale remains highest in China, there has been strong
eCommerce are defined as ways of paying for physical or digital goods,          growth in their use globally, with the rise of eCommerce payments made
where transactions are not completed using cash or any of the major card        in this way driven primarily by the decline in the use of payment cards.
schemes. With the growth of technology and with new players entering            Growth has been strongest in Europe and North America, as the regions
KEY PAYMENTS TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2021 Whitepaper
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with the most availability. In Asia Pacific, the big three providers, Apple   Forecast Summary
Pay, Google Pay and Samsung Pay, face fierce competition from local
                                                                              Juniper Research forecasts that physical goods transaction values for
payment providers, such as WeChat Pay and Alipay.
                                                                              physical goods sales online will grow from $3.3 trillion in 2020 to $4.4
Mobile wallets offer an advantage for consumers over the more                 trillion by 2025, with this 33% growth hastened by the COVID-19
established payment card checkout model, in that they reduce friction at      pandemic. The pandemic has fundamentally altered customer behaviours
the checkout. There is no requirement for consumers to add card               towards eCommerce, with these behaviours set to be sustained in the
payment details each time; card details are already stored on the mobile      longer term. Further growth in global online purchase values will be
device and a ‘pay’ button allows shoppers to buy with one tap, with a         driven by increased availability of eCommerce in emerging markets over
clear reduction in the likelihood of cart abandoment and a higher potential   the next five years.
for impulse purchases.
                                                                              Figure 1: Total Physical Goods Transaction Values, Split by 8
BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later)                                                     Key Regions, 2025, $4.4 trillion

BNPL is a payment model allowing consumers to pay in installments for
online purchases. It represents a shift away from the credit card model of
consumer financing, and offers greater flexibility to consumers, including
those who do not own a credit card. The BNPL model within eCommerce
removes the neccessity for credit approval (other than the ‘soft’ credit
checks generally undertaken by companies offering this payment model),
is free from high-interest rates, complicated Ts&Cs, and the relatively
short interest-free period attached to paying by credit card.

BNPL is already offered by companies such as Klarna, PayPal, Afterpay
and Affirm. In doing this, these companies take on the credit risk with
merchants being paid the full transaction amount straight away. Klarna
mitigates the risk of this interest-free loan arrangement with the customer        North America           Latin America          West Europe
by charging retailers a fee each time it is used. PayPal offers its BNPL at        Central & East Europe   Far East & China       Indian Subcontinent
no additional cost to the merchant.                                                Rest of Asia Pacific    Africa & Middle East

                                                                              Source: Juniper Research
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Instant Payments                                                             Current Market Landscape
                                                                             The US Lagging Behind
Instant payments, also known as real-time payments, are having a
disruptive effect on the payments market by injecting speed into             The US has a complex payments infrastructure, which is lagging behind
transactions where speed has previously not been available. However,         some other markets in terms of innovation. Given its federal nature, it is
the changeover to instant payments schemes is not happening in a             difficult for changes to be made quickly in a way that is successful and
universal way, and is generating many challenges of its own.                 equal for all states. The Federal Reserve has planned implementation of
                                                                             ISO 20022 for its FedWire service, which was originally scheduled for
Definition of Terms                                                          Phase 1 in November 2020 and go live in late 2023. However, this was
                                                                             postponed in September 2019; an update in May 2020 announced that
The European Central Bank defines instant payments as ‘electronic retail
                                                                             Phase 1 would not go live in 2020 or 2021, further delaying the roll-out.
payment solutions that process payments in real-time, 24 hours a day,
365 days a year, where the funds are made available immediately for use
                                                                             The Clearing House has created RTP, which offers instant payments to
by the recipient.’
                                                                             personal and business customers. Launched in 2017, RTP participants
                                                                             already include Bank of America, Citibank and Cross River. However, as
Given the uncertain nature of the word ‘immediate’ in this example, we
                                                                             figure 1 demonstrates, adoption of RTP has been slow; resulting in
will set out our own definition of instant payments. Juniper Research
                                                                             patchy network coverage in the US. The Federal Reserve aims to provide
defines an instant payments scheme as ‘any payments scheme where
                                                                             competition to this with FedNow.
the funds are capable of being received in ten seconds or under, outside
card networks.’ Some payments schemes will only meet this definition if      EU Shows Cross-border Initiatives Work
certain conditions, such as anti-fraud measures, are met; however, this
definition includes schemes that are capable of such speed, without          The EU has taken a leading role in harmonising and updating payment
necessarily meeting it with every single transaction.                        systems and structures. PSD2 is one example of far-reaching regulation
                                                                             which has done much to advance the market, in areas such as Open
Instant payments schemes tend to be updated versions of legacy               Banking and security. Another way the EU has made significant progress
payment settlement schemes created by individual payments authorities        is with the SEPA scheme.
in countries. Card payments, while certainly fast, do not tend to lend
themselves to the same use cases as instant payments schemes, given          SEPA is designed to simplify bank transfers in euros, by standardising
the requirement for the supplier to accept the card transaction, which has   payment rails. As an initiative, SEPA can be traced back to 1999, when
relatively high transaction fees.                                            the European Financial Services Action Plan emerged to create a single
                                                                             market for financial services. In 2008, the SEPA payment instruments
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became operational, with further progress made since then. As of 2020,         Forecast Summary
SEPA has 36 members, including the 27 member states of the EU, the
                                                                               The value of instant payments, where transactions are completed within
four members of the European Free Trade Association (Iceland,
                                                                               ten seconds, will reach $18 trillion in 2025, up from $3 trillion in 2020, a
Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland), the UK and Andorra, Monaco,
                                                                               growth of over 500%. This represents 17% of all B2B and consumer
San Marino and Vatican City. SEPA provides three main schemes; SEPA
                                                                               digital money transfer and banking payments by value in 2025. West
Credit Transfer, SEPA Instant Credit Transfer and SEPA Direct Debit.
                                                                               Europe is driving innovation and will account for 38% of instant payment
SEPA Credit Transfer has become the dominant scheme for                        transaction value by 2025.
euro-denominated payments in Europe; displacing legacy domestic
                                                                               Figure 2: Global Value of Instant Payments ($m) in 2025: $18
payment structures. It was launched in the SEPA area in November               Trillion
2017; offering payments in a maximum of ten seconds on a 24 hours a
day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year, basis.

Since launch, SEPA Instant Credit has begun to gain traction steadily;
accounting for over 5.9% of all SEPA Credit Transfer transactions in Q1
2020. By this point, 2,272 PSPs (Payment Service Providers) have joined
the scheme, which is 56% of all PSPs in Europe.

The unique nature of SEPA Instant Credit is that it is cross border by
design; allowing seamless payments in the SEPA zone. This is made
possible by the level of financial integration between these players, but is
highly impressive nonetheless. Standardisation with ISO 20022 and the
use of schemes such as SWIFT gpi are the best ways to enable other
countries to emulate these capabilities.

                                                                                    North America             Latin America            West Europe

                                                                                    Central & East Europe     Far East & China         Indian Subcontinent

                                                                                    Rest of Asia Pacific      Africa & Middle East

                                                                               Source: Juniper Research
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In-vehicle Payments                                                           smartphone or other devices to handle the transaction.’ Generally, the
                                                                              payment is triggered by the infotainment system within the vehicle, either
Over the last ten years, much of the technological change around cars         through the screen or via a built-in voice assistant.
has been focused on internal systems, but this has transitioned to include
connected cars.                                                               In-vehicle payments enable a number of different use cases, the three
                                                                              largest of which we outline below.
In terms of the automotive industry, the IoT has enabled the creation of
applications that can be integrated with vehicles. This has led to the        •   Automated Toll Collection: A system of collecting tolls or fees which is
development of the concept of the IoV (Internet of Vehicles). IoV can be          capable of charging an account holder the appropriate amount by
used to collect, transfer and manage information, and integrate data from         transmission of information from the vehicle to the toll lane.
car/trucks. This is widely used in the haulage, trucking, freight delivery
                                                                              •   Smart Parking: Utilises sensors to ascertain the occupancy of a parking
and shipping sectors. These business sectors need time identification,
                                                                                  structure or level. It is accomplished by sensors embedded in the
tracking, management software applications. It is within these sectors that
                                                                                  pavement of individual parking spaces, and utilities them at the
IoV has significant applications and business uses.
                                                                                  entrances or gates of parking structures. This can then be paid for via
A key new development is the introduction of payments to the connected            an in-vehicle payment.
vehicles concept, which will be explored below.
                                                                              •   Pay-at-the-pump: A fuel payment service where you can pay for fuel on
Definition of Terms                                                               your mobile or in-vehicle quickly and easily; giving drivers the option to
                                                                                  pay via various methods. This is increasingly available via the
Juniper Research defines a connected car as ‘a vehicle that is equipped           infotainment system, but is more widely available via mobile app.
with internet access.’ The connected car needs a data connection to
communicate with its external surroundings. This is currently achieved        Current Market Landscape
through mechanisms, such as data connections via 4G or 5G, Bluetooth,
                                                                              In-vehicle payment services crucially enable automobile drivers to
Wi-Fi, or GPS navigation systems. The connection of the vehicle to its
                                                                              purchase from their car dashboards without utilising smartphones or other
surroundings is established by in-vehicle receivers or transmitters. In
                                                                              devices: the vehicle will facilitate the payment itself.
most cases, the vehicle is equipped with this, or it is established via a
third-party network/system.
                                                                              The high cost of embedded systems, as compared with integrated
                                                                              systems, is hindering the in-vehicle payment services market. Integrated
Juniper Research defines an in-vehicle payment as ‘a payment that is
                                                                              systems are popular, with both Android Auto and CarPlay widely in
made by the vehicle, without requiring the use of a connected
KEY PAYMENTS TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2021 Whitepaper
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service, and these both including wallets (Google Pay and Apple Pay),           Forecast Summary
meaning that there is reduced impetus to introduce these services directly
                                                                                The value of in-vehicle payments, where a payment is made via
into the vehicle.
                                                                                embedded vehicle systems, will reach $86 billion in 2025, up from just
The in-vehicle payments landscape faces several security and                    $543 million in 2020. In-vehicle payments automate and simplify several
vulnerabilities issues, which could put at risk personal data and financial     existing payment processes via the vehicle’s onboard systems; providing
information, such as card number, PIN, and CVV (Card Verification               increasing convenience for drivers. This dramatic growth will be driven by
Value). As this is a relatively unknown area for payments, this risk is         increased partnerships which are improving the availability of services,
highly important. This inherent risk aspect is likely to play an important      particularly in the fuel and smart parking segments.
factor in limiting or affecting the development and growth of in-vehicle
                                                                                Figure 3: Global In–vehicle Payment Spend in 2025: $86 Billion
payments. As such, this is why automotive manufacturers need the
involvement of established payments companies like Visa and
Mastercard, which are experienced in dealing with payment security and
can introduce features such as tokenisation.

North America is expected to see a large growth in terms of in-vehicle
payments services, primarily due to the presence and cross industry
collaboration of the two largest payment providers, Visa and Mastercard,
and also to the presence of three large automobile companies, GM, Ford
and FCA. These vendors are all already exploring in-vehicle payments;
demonstrating that, despite the challenges, there is strong potential for in-
vehicle payments services.

                                                                                     North America           Latin America            West Europe

                                                                                     Central & East Europe   Far East & China         Indian Subcontinent

                                                                                     Rest of Asia Pacific    Africa & Middle East

                                                                                Source: Juniper Research
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Smart Home Payments                                                       While these are at present the three largest payment types within the
                                                                          smart homes market, this will diversify over time. In future, it is likely that
The smart home market continues to evolve over time, arguably having      home automation devices, or even smart meters, could enable payments;
yet to reach its promise. However, as the market evolves, a number of     however, at present, payments for energy, for example, are facilitated by
value-added services are emerging, such as payments.                      traditional billing methods. The fact that these are the main types of
                                                                          payments currently made does not mean that these are at similar stages
Definition of Terms                                                       of development. Voice assistant payments are relatively mature, at least
                                                                          in terms of capability, as are connected TV payments. However,
The smart home market, as defined by Juniper Research, consists of
                                                                          connected appliance payments are at a much earlier development stage.
smart devices in the home connected by an internet, LAN (Local Area
Network), Bluetooth or other connection. This includes devices that are   Figure 4: Current Smart Home Payments Market Model
connected indirectly via a so-called gateway to the internet.

This definition excludes smartphones, tablets and PCs. Smart devices
often connect to apps on mobile devices; allowing users to control them
remotely.

The smart home market is currently between the exploration phase –
where many companies are experimenting with new products or services
– and the integration phase – where home products are smart by default
and certain intelligent functions are standard features.

Current Market Landscape

Smart home payments can broadly be grouped into three areas:

•   Voice assistant payments via smart speakers.

•   Connected TV payments.
                                                                          Source: Juniper Research
•   Connected appliance payments.
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Voice Assistant Payments                                                    instead of providing convenience, Amazon’s Alexa has added to the
                                                                            number of steps involved in completing a purchase.
Voice assistant adoption has seen some of the fastest growth in recent
technological history, and this has already transformed the way buyers
                                                                            Forecast Summary
and sellers interact. Conversational commerce has grown, as voice
assistants enable consumers to shop hands free, which is a major benefit    The total transaction value of smart home payments, payments that occur
to users across a number of use cases. Currently, the most common           via smart home devices, will exceed $164 billion in 2025, from $22 billion
device used for voice assistant payments is through a smartphone, but       in 2020. Increasing use of voice assistants via smart speakers for
within the smart home environment; accessing voice assistants through a     eCommerce, propelled by rising user and merchant acceptance, will drive
smart speaker is becoming increasingly common.                              a dramatic growth of over 630% in total values over the next five years.

Voice assistant payments through smart speakers, such as Amazon’s           Figure 5: Total Annual Transaction Value of Connected Home
Echo or Google Home, predominantly follow both the routine home             Device Payments in 2025: $164 Billion
product replenishment trend and the on-demand in-house services trend.
Through smart speakers, users can buy groceries, order takeaway and
send money to friends using clear voice commands.

These are paid for using on-file card payments. For consumers who have
a Google Home smart speaker and buy groceries or household items
through grocers that have partnered with Google (such as Costco and
Whole Foods), the transaction is handled by Google Pay. For consumers
using Amazon’s Alexa, the buying of goods or services is more
complicated. If a consumer is buying something directly from Amazon,
then the payment process is simple – it comes directly from the card
attached to their Amazon account. If consumers want to buy goods from
other retailers, such as Sainsbury’s, they can build their basket via the
                                                                                 North America           Latin America            West Europe
smart speaker, but must complete their checkout process through the
                                                                                 Central & East Europe   Far East & China         Indian Subcontinent
retailer’s own app or online. The payment transaction is being handled by
                                                                                 Rest of Asia Pacific    Africa & Middle East
the retailer, rather than Amazon providing a seamless payment
experience. This is a potential point of frustration for consumers, as
                                                                            Source: Juniper Research
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Digital Ticketing                                                             end of 2020. Markets that are negatively impacted also face long-term
Digital ticketing is rapidly evolving and has taken on new importance due     issues, as they struggle to recover from the economic impacts arising
to the COVID-19 pandemic.                                                     from the spread of COVID-19. Despite a potential end to measures
                                                                              imposed by governments, such as social distancing and self-isolation,
Definition of Terms                                                           markets classified in this sector will feel negative impacts into 2021. In
                                                                              some markets, such as the aviation industry, it will take several years to
Juniper Research defines digital ticketing as any ticketing mechanism         return to pre-virus operational levels. Going forward, the move towards
which uses mobile or PC to take the place of a paper ticket in a ticketing    digitisation prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic may serve to be a more
transaction. This is inclusive of entertainment events, sports events, and    permanent change.
transport.
                                                                              Future Outlook: Mobile Ticketing

Current Market Landscape                                                      As noted in our previous editions, mobile ticketing is becoming integrated
Contactless Ticketing                                                         into wider, multiple-function mCommerce offerings, such as mobile travel,
                                                                              mobile entertainment or mobile retail applications, whether delivered by
Contactless card and NFC payments for ticketing have been supported           mobile app, mobile web or SMS. Very few mobile ticketing schemes offer
by some countries faster than others. Japan and Korea have been using         tickets alone, in fact, these are usually integrated into a wider journey
FeliCa technology for some years, whilst markets such as the US, are          planning app. There are also mobile ticketing portals added to online
only now growing strongly in the contactless ticketing space. In countries    portals, often targeted at specific user groups. Once dominant, online
such as France, the UK and Turkey, there has been a dramatic adoption,        ticketing has diminished in importance, as the methods used to access
with the reasons for progress varying from country to country. However, it    the Internet have changed. The rise of the smartphone has led to the
is clear that in certain countries, NFC, contactless payments and ticketing   emerging dominance of mobile ticketing. Smartphone penetration will
are being driven by government initiatives and the contributions of major     continue to grow; driven by penetration in developing areas, as well as
transport operators. TfL (Transport for London) in London is such an          increased user demand for convenient services. The process of transition
example.                                                                      to a full mobile-first experience requires significant investment from both
                                                                              vendors in developing suitable solutions and transport authorities in
The Impact of COVID-19
                                                                              deploying them. With mobile now an integral part of the ticketing industry,
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on ticketing. The                transport operators are focusing on increasing acceptance and agreeing
market has already experienced significant disruption, and Juniper            partnerships to drive further integrations. There will likely be consolidation
Research anticipates that this disruption will continue at least until the    in the market as this moves forward.
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Future Outlook: Contactless Ticketing                                        Forecast Summary

Contactless payment in travel ticketing is seeing a boost as the world       Juniper Research anticipates that digital ticketing transaction volumes will
slowly emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, as it offers a way of being       see an increase from a 2020 figure of 12.7 billion to 53.3 billion in 2025.
able to use transit without the need to touch ticket vending machines or     Transaction volumes are expected to more than double between 2020
POS terminals.                                                               and 2021, as travel restrictions are lifted, and sport and entertainment
                                                                             events resume. The number of digital ticketing transactions overall will
In some markets, the adoption of contactless technology on a large scale
                                                                             see an uplift of over 340% between 2020 and 2025. Transactions are
has been held back in part by required changes to payment infrastructure
                                                                             anticipated to return to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2022.
and a lack of standardisation regarding guidelines and criteria within the
transit sector. However, there is progress – for example, in June 2020,      Figure 6: Total Digital Ticketing Transaction Volume (Mobile,
ticketing technology company Masabi and payments company Littlepay           Online, Wearable), 2025
announced a partnership to offer ‘contactless EMV in a box.’ This
development could simplify the process of allowing transit companies to
provide contactless ticketing, by eliminating the need for engaging the
services of individual fare collection system providers, payments
gateways and acquiring banks. Operators will be able to apply local fare
rules and capping as desired.

                                                                                  North America           Latin America           West Europe

                                                                                  Central & East Europe   Far East & China        Indian Subcontinent

                                                                                  Rest of Asia Pacific    Africa & Middle East

                                                                             Source: Juniper Research
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    digital ecosystem, Juniper Research is ideally positioned to provide         •   In-depth Coverage: From detailed research reports to a highly granular
    actionable insights for your team.                                               database comprising 1.1 million data points, Juniper Research offers all
                                                                                     you need for real market insight.
•   Credibility & Track Record: Juniper Research works with many of the
    top 20 market leaders in finance and technology. Our clients include
                                                                                 Benefit from some of the same insight as these vendors:
    operators, vendors, financial institutions, billing providers, Fortune 500
    companies and platform providers.
•   Trusted Methodology: Juniper Research’s proprietary research tools
    and methods provide a comprehensive and reliable picture of markets;
    offering competitive insights and incisive analysis of the structure and
    future shape of key digital markets.

                                                                                 For more information contact: nick.mardell@juniperresearch.com
              To view our portfolio of Fintech and Payments
                                                                                 Tel: UK: +44 (0)1256 830002/475656
                     research visit our website here.
                                                                                 https://www.juniperresearch.com/
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