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EXPECTATIONS 2021-22
The information is only for consumption by the client and such material should not be redistributedBudget
Expectations
2021-22
Policy reforms likely to continue even with limited fiscal space
Even as past budgets have disappointed the equity markets more often, the finance minister has promised a landmark budget for FY22. Whether landmark
or not, the FY22 budget will be historic in the face of an unprecedented pandemic which has caused great economic loss. India has managed the pandemic
much better than many developed economies and the cost borne by the government has been manageable. The finance minister has been unequivocal
about spending on capital expenditure for reviving the economy and creating jobs. At this juncture the budget appears to be quite constructive; however,
the fiscal room afforded even after considering the improving economy and better-than-expected tax collections is not very significant.
Our broad contours for FY22 Union Budget are as follows:
• Focus on Job creation: The broad focus of the government will be job creation. This could mean more impetus on infrastructure and fiscal expansion using off
balance sheet structures. While fiscal expansion appears to be challenging considering the fiscal deficit which will expand to ~7.5% in the current fiscal year, job
creation through government activities is a necessity as private capex continues to be sluggish. MSME sector is likely to gain more benefits in the upcoming budget,
relaxation in recognition of stress assets is expected to extend for MSME.
• Public Health and Vaccination rollout will be key focus areas: Public health has become very critical and further investments in public health infrastructure seem
very likely. Vaccination roll out will be a very large project involving significant government expenditure. The outlay for this mega project and possible funding structure
could become critical aspects of the budget.
• Tax structures likely to be maintained: Corporate taxes were reduced in 2019 and this structure is likely to be maintained in FY22 to encourage private
investments. Personal income tax structures are also likely to be maintained as additional taxes will disrupt consumption. The FY21 divestment targets were quite
steep and are unlikely to be met which will be rolled over into FY22.
Our Positive Budget Play: Hero Moto, Escorts, Maruti, Endurance tech, Polycab India, Dabur, Asian Paints, SBI, Canfin Homes, Dalmia Bharat,
JK Cement, Star Cement, PI Industries, Dhanuka, Amber Enterprises, Dixon Tech
Negative: ITC, Godfrey Phillip, VST Industires
Neeraj Chadawar |neeraj.chadawar@axissecurities.in | Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Our key sector view:
• Infrastructure, building materials and consumer durables will be in focus: Focus on infrastructure like roads and construction activities will remain a key focus
area. This will help the infrastructure companies and building materials segments like cement, tiles and others. Real estate is another key sector which needs further
push and affordable housing segment could see more government schemes. All these will help wide range of household durables segment.
• Manufacturing and Make In India: PLI scheme for Mobile Phones is likely to be extended to AC manufacturing, LED Lighting and components used in
manufacturing of consumer electrical. Any announcement of a PLI scheme outlining the details of incentives for manufacture of products will be a positive trigger for
consumer durable companies as well as contract manufacturers. Further, more clarity is expected on PLI linked incentives for automobile OEMs and auto ancillary
companies, export focused companies could be the key beneficiaries.
• Automobiles: Increased focus on rural spends by the Government as well as steps to boost rural income will lead to increase in the disposable income benefiting
tractor OEMs, select two-wheeler and four wheeler OEMs and auto ancillary companies supplying to such OEMs. Details regarding setting up of vehicle scrappaging
infrastructure will be conducive for rolling out of scrappage policy in the near future. The Commercial Vehicle Industry is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the
same.
• BFSI: Government is likely to recapitalize some PSU banks with a fresh growth capital to provide some relief from Covid related stress. A roadmap could be expected
for privatization of the bottom tier PSU banks. A push on affordable housing will benefit housing finance companies. The government may also look at providing further
tax incentives to enable people to buy adequate health insurance which has gained importance following the pandemic.
• FMCG & Retail: Agri-Infrastructure likely to gain traction, any increase in allocation towards cold chain, warehousing, logistics & rural connectivity will boost
consumption in rural area. Sustained rise in allocation to agriculture sector will further boost the farm productivity, help in reducing post-harvest losses which will
further help in increasing the farm income. Increase in excise duty, levy of COVID cess or raising NCCD duty on cigarettes and tobacco products in excess of 10-15%
will be negative for certain companies
• IT Telecom: We are expecting exemption in the dividend distribution tax. Indian IT companies pay healthy dividends. Exemptions in the tax will be positive for overall
IT sector. We could see some traction in the telecom spectrum of bandwidth which will impact capacity expansion for some telecom players.
• Agri & Chemical: Urea subsidy likely to increase, focus in budget will be more on roadmap for the roll out of Direct benefit transfer for fertilizer subsidy. Chemical
sector expected to be included in PLI scheme & with the help of extended financial support all the chemical companies likely to see traction.
Union Budget 2021-22Macro Picture
Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Fiscal Account FY20-21: Revenue Receipt
2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21
In Cr Actuals Budget Estimates Revised Estimates Budget Estimates • Gross tax revenue expected to be
Gross Tax Revenue 20,80,426 24,61,195 21,63,423 24,23,020 contract in FY21 vs the budget
1) Direct Tax 11,36,575 13,35,000 11,70,000 13,19,000 estimates on account of lower tax
Personal Income Tax 4,73,003 5,69,000 5,59,500 6,38,000 collection due to pandemic
Corporation tax 6,63,572 7,66,000 6,10,500 6,81,000 • Tax Buoyancy has improved in last
2) Indirect Tax 9,43,851 11,26,195 9,93,423 11,04,020 couple of months
GST 5,81,560 6,63,343 6,12,327 6,90,500 • Tax revenue is expected to further
Excise Duties 2,31,982 3,00,000 2,48,012 2,67,000 recover in upcoming months with
Custom Duty 1,17,813 1,55,904 1,25,000 1,38,000
positive improvement in Direct and
Union Terriotories 5,592 6,948 6,884 7,500
Indirect taxes
Service Tax 6,904 .. 1,200 1,020
• Fiscal deficit for FY21 is likely to be
Less: To states & NCCD transfer 7,63,254 8,11,613 6,58,836 7,87,111
around 7.5% vs budget estimate of
Net Tax Revenue 13,17,172 16,49,582 15,04,587 16,35,909
3.5%
Non Tax Revenue (Interest, Dividend, grants) 2,35,704 3,13,179 3,45,513 3,85,017
• FY22 fiscal deficit expected to be
Non-Debt Receipts (Loans And Disinvestments) 1,12,779 1,19,828 81,605 2,24,967
lower than FY21 on account of
Total Receipts 16,65,655 20,82,589 19,31,705 22,45,893
higher nominal GDP growth and
Borrowings & oth Liabilities 6,49,418 7,03,760 7,66,846 7,96,337
improved tax buoyancy
Total Receipts inc Borrowings 23,15,073 27,86,349 26,98,551 30,42,230
Fiscal Deficit 3.40% 3.30% 3.80% 3.50%
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Fiscal Account FY20-21: Subsidy & non tax receipt
2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21
Subsidy (In Cr) Actuals Budget Estimates Revised Estimates Budget Estimates
• Food Subsidy likely to go up on account increase in food stocks,
Food 1,01,327 1,84,220 1,08,688 1,15,570
higher procurement and increase in food relief benefit on account
Fertiliser 70,605 79,996 79,998 71,309
of pandemic. Higher food subsidy likely to continue for FY22 also.
Urea 46,514 53,629 53,629 47,805
Nutrition based 24,090 26,367 26,369 23,504
Petroleum 24,837 37,478 38,569 40,915 • Urea subsidy likely to increase, focus in budget will be more on
LPG 20,268 32,989 34,086 37,256 roadmap for the roll out of Direct benefit transfer for fertilizer
Kerosene 4,569 4,489 4,483 3,659
subsidy
Interest Subsidies 20,009 26,117 25,946 28,179
Other 6,176 10,343 10,356 6,136
Total 2,22,954 3,38,154 2,63,557 2,62,109
2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21
Non Tax and Capital Receipt • Budgetary disinvestment target will likely to be missed in FY21,
(In Cr) Budget Revised Budget
Actuals
Estimates Estimates Estimates which most likely to gets roll over in FY22 budget.
Interest 12,144 13,711 11,027 11,042
Dividends 1,13,420 1,63,527 1,99,892 1,55,394 • Dividends likely to be lower vs FY21 estimates
From Public Enterprises 43,052 57,486 48,256 65,746
From RBI & Financials Institutions 70,368 1,06,041 1,51,636 89,648
Disinvestment 94,726 1,05,000 65,000 2,10,000
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Gov Schemes: Major outlay
2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 2020-21
In Cr Actuals Budget Estimates Revised Estimates Budget Estimates Key Expectation:
Centrally sponsered Schemes
Core of the Core Schemes 84,038 81,863 93,519 85,160
• Jobs creation likely to a key focus area
National Social Assistance Progam 8,418 9,200 9,200 9,197
MNREGA 61,815 60,000 71,002 61,500 • Rural oriented schemes continue to be in
Others 13,805 12,663 13,317 14,463 focus, could attract higher allocation
Core Schemes 2,12,991 2,49,508 2,23,143 2,54,259
Green Revolution 11,758 12,561 9,965 13,320 • Infrastructure will be a key focus area:
Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojna 8,143 9,682 7,896 11,127 PMAY, AMRUT, Smart cities, NHAI,
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna 15,414 19,000 14,070 19,500
Metro, Shipping, Port likely to gain
Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY) 25,443 25,853 25,328 27,500
National Rural Drinking Water Mission 5,484 10,001 10,001 11,500 higher share.
Swachh Bharat Mission 2,462 2,650 1,300 2,300
• Affordable housing could see a boost
Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin) 12,913 9,994 8,338 9,994
National Health Mission 31,502 33,651 34,290 34,115 • Public health has become very critical
National Education Mission 30,830 38,547 37,672 39,161 and further investments in public health
Jobs and Skill Development 6,126 7,260 5,749 5,372
infrastructure seem very likely.
Environment, Forestry and Wildlife 978 886 787 926
AMRUT and Smart Cities Mission 12,085 13,750 9,842 13,750 Vaccination roll out will be a very large
Modernisation of Police Forces 3,260 3,462 4,155 3,162
project involving significant government
Others 46,595 62,211 53,750 62,533
Total Centrally sponsered schemes 2,96,029 3,31,610 3,16,816 3,39,895 expenditure.
Major Central sector Schemes
Crop Insurance Scheme 11,937 14,000 13,641 15,695
Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-Kisan) 1,241 75,000 54,370 75,000
Agricultural Universities and Institutions 526 566 450 480
Union Budget 2021-22Sectoral Expectations
Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
Sector Key budget expectations Impact
Auto • Details regarding setting up of vehicle scrappaging infrastructure which will be conducive Positive
enough for rolling out of scrappage policy in the near future - The Commercial Vehicle Industry • Hero Motocorp
is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the same. • Bajaj Auto
• Clarity on provision of incentives for replacing old vehicles with new ones under the incentive • Escorts
based scrappage scheme. • Maruti Suzuki India
• Ashok Leyland
• Clarity on Product-linked incentive (PLI) scheme incentives to be provided to automobile OEMs
• SSWL
and auto ancillary companies – Export focused companies will be the key beneficiaries of the
• Endurance Tech.
same.
• Minda Industries
• Increased focus on rural spends by the Government as well as steps to boost rural income,
which will lead to increase in the disposable income benefiting tractor OEMs, select two-
wheeler and four wheeler OEMs and auto ancillary companies supplying to such OEMs.
• Increased spending for infrastructure projects will see positive effects on the Commercial
Vehicle & tractor industry.
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
Sector Key budget expectations Impact
Direct Taxes :
Consumer Positive
Durables • Increase in the basic income tax slab for individuals • Polycab India
• Increase in the amount of standard deduction to salaried employees from Rs 50,000 to Rs • Sheela Foam
1,00,000 • Amber Enterprises
• Dixon Technologies
Indirect taxes :
• Lower GST rates for Consumer Durable goods specifically for eco-friendly & energy efficient
products viz. AC’s & Refrigerators
Production Linked incentive Scheme
• Extension of/ announcement of production linked Incentive Schemes for Air Conditioners,
Laptops, Tablets, LED Lighting, Components used in manufacture of consumer electronics
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
Sector Key budget expectations Impact
FMCG & Retail
• Raise allocation to MGNREGA from current Rs. 1 lakh crore levels (Rs. 40,000cr additional
Positive
allocation made as COVID-19 relief package)
• Dabur, HUL, Britannia,
• Increased investment in agri-infrastructure such as cold chain, warehousing, logistics, and Asian Paints, Jyothy
irrigation to improve rural connectivity and thereby boost consumption demand in rural areas Labs, Emami
• Sustained rise in allocation to agriculture sector to boost farm productivity – reduce post
• FMCG, Retail and
harvest losses, irrigation infrastructure, promoting soil health
Apparel companies
• Urban equivalent scheme of MGNREGA or increased allocation for urban development
projects leading to job creation could potentially drive demand • Nestle, Britannia,
Marico, Godrej
• Doubling the tax saving limit for investments under Sec 80C from current Rs. 1.5 lakh
Consumer Products
• Increase in excise duty, levy of COVID cess or raising NCCD duty on cigarettes and tobacco
products in excess of 10-15% will be negative for certain companies Negative
• ITC, Godfrey Phillip,
VST Industries
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
Sector Key budget expectations Impact
Agriculture and • Pesticides Manufacturers and Formulators Association of India (PMFAI) expects GST Positive
Specialty Chemicals reduction will help bring larger farmers under coverage and protect their crops without causing • PI Industries,
any substantial loss to the central exchequer. Dhanuka Agritech
• Reduce GST to 5% from the current 18% on pesticides in line with other farm inputs like seeds
and fertilizers. • All companies in the
Specialty Chemical
• Should increase duty drawback (export benefits) of pesticides from the present 2% to 13%.
sector
• Increasing import duty on technical and finished pesticides to 20-30% to protect the domestic
agro-chemicals industry.
• Inclusion of chemical sector under PLI scheme and extend a financial support and other
development assistance for intermediates and technical grade pesticides indigenously under
'Make in India' programme.
• Changes in Custom Duty structure for bulk chemicals to aid improvement in utilization levels
thus boosting self-sufficiency
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
Sector Key budget expectations Impact
Cement • Urban infrastructure and Real Estate to get more fund for development as they are more Positive
impacted due to COVID-19. PMAY (U) to get major boost to uplift the real estate and Income • We expect budget to
tax deduction on interest on housing loan is expected to be increased from present Rs.1.5 lakh facilitate and expand
to Rs. 2.5 lakh. Urban housing to get the major boost in the budget. overall infra which
• Rural infrastructure development through Pradhan Manti Gram Sadak Yojna, Pradhan Mantri will positively benefit
Awas Yojna (Rural) and MNREGA is expected to get more fund for development. cement companies
• Under the NIP ( National Infrastructure Plan) govt has ambitious plan to develop infra in terms of higher
landscape of the country. Fast tracking of major highway projects will create more demand for demand for cement.
cement. • Stocks: Dalmia
• Transportation and logistic is a space which need immediate attention and we expect budget to Bharat Ltd, JK
focus on measure to improve and bring down the logistic cost. This will positively impact Cement, Birla Corp
cement industry. & Star Cement.
• Availability of coal is a concern for cement companies, we expect budget to address the same.
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
Sector Key budget expectations Impact
BFSI PSU Banks Positive
• PSU Bank Capitalization: We expect government to recapitalize certain PSU banks to ensure • PSU Banks
growth capital and relief from possible Covid related stress. The government has spent ~Rs
3.12 trillion over the last 5 years recapitalizing PSU banks.
• Privatization of PSU banks: A roadmap could be expected for privatization of the bottom tier
PSU banks. In its IWG report, RBI had suggested corporate entities getting banking licenses
which pave the path for getting suitors for such banks.
• Bad Bank: Government may create a bad bank for the legacy stressed assets along-with Covid
related stress. This would also lower the re-capitalisation needs required for PSU banks.
Housing Finance Positive
• Extension of CLSS scheme under PMAY: Government may extend the PMAY-CLSS scheme • Housing
expiring in March 2021 in-line with government’s vision to provide Housing for All by 2022. Finance
Companies
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
Sector Key budget expectations Impact
BFSI MSME sector Positive
• Stress recognition reclassification extension for MSME sector: Since the Covid pandemic • For all banks
struck , Government has been announcing various measures for MSME sector. Government
in coordination with RBI could increase timelines for recognition of GNPA for the MSME sector
from 90 days currently to 120 days or more to ensure businesses remain afloat and are given
more time to come to normalized cash flows.
• Increasing quantum and timeline of the ECLGS scheme: As part of Atmanirbhar Bharat
package ECLGS scheme of Rs 3 lakh Cr was announced to support the MSME sector and
then extended to the stressed sectors identified by the Kamath committee. This has received a
good response. Budget could see further allocation to scheme and also extend the timeline for
sanctioning loans which ends in March 2021.
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
Sector Key budget expectations Impact
BFSI Vehicle Financiers Positive
• Any announcement on a vehicle scrappage scheme could help various vehicle segment and • Vehicle financiers viz.
especially help to augment CV demand Cholamandalam Invst,
Sundaram Finance
Insurance
Positive
• The government may also look at providing further tax incentives to enable people to buy
adequate health insurance which has gained importance following the pandemic.
• Insurance companies
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
Sectoral expectations
IT & Telecom Key budget expectations Impact
Dividend distribution • We are expecting exemption in the dividend distribution tax. Indian IT companies pay healthy Positive
Tax dividends. Exemptions in the tax will encourage the overall IT sector. • TCS, Infosys,
HCL tech, Tech
Mahindra and
other IT
services
companies
Spectrum Auctions • We can see tractions in the spectrum of bandwidth this will impact some capacity expansion Positive
of some telecom and better services. • Bharti Airtel,
Reliance,
Vodafone Idea
Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
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Union Budget 2021-22Budget
Expectations
2021-22
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