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Business        Mahindra fights
businesstoday.in         confidence up   for identity

May 2, 2021 `100

                                                                 OC

               How India Can Become The
   Factory to the World
          WHaT IndusTry musT do WITH THe neW produCTIon lInked
          InCenTIves To make IndIa a gloBal manufaCTurIng HuB
FACTORY TO THE WORLD HOW INDIA CAN BECOME THE - BUSINESSTODAY.IN BUSINESS - IS PARKED FREE, COURTESY OF GODADDY.COM.
We tell the story
 Not the moral of the story
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From the Editor
                                                                                                      http://www.businesstoday.in

Quest To Be The World’s Factory                                                                  Chairman & Editor-in-Chief: aroon purie
                                                                                                       Vice Chairperson: Kalli purie
                                                                                                Group Chief Executive Officer: Dinesh Bhatia
                                                                                                 Group Editorial Director: Raj Chengappa
                                                                                                  Chief Executive Officer: Manoj Sharma

T
                                                                                                            Editor: Rajeev Dubey
       he Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme — India’s valiant                                  Group Creative Editor: Nilanjan Das
                                                                                                      Group Photo Editor: Bandeep Singh
       answer to domestic and foreign manufacturers’ eternal gripe that                                Executive Editor: anand adhikari
       producing in India was hopelessly unviable because of high taxes,                                Deputy Editor: ajita Shashidhar

high cost of logistics, finance, land, power and an endless list thereafter —                               special projects and events
                                                                                                            Senior Editor: anup Jayaram
was introduced for mobile manufacturers in 2020.
                                                                                                                     correspondents
    The Government of India’s commitment to provide cash incentives up                          Senior Editors: p.B. Jayakumar, Nevin John,
                                                                                               Joe C. Mathew, Dipak Mondal, Manu Kaushik,
to 4-6 per cent of revenue from incremental local manufacturing aimed at                                      Sumant Banerji
import substitution got such an excitable response from companies that                                 Associate Editor: Nidhi Singal
                                                                                                      Special Correspondent: Vidya S.
the Centre made mobile PLI the template to launch it in 12 other sectors.
                                                                                                         consulting editor: Rukmini Rao
With total incentives committed going as high as `1.99 lakh crore over five
years, PLIs now rival some of the biggest Government of India outlays such                                                research
                                                                                        Principal Research Analysts: Niti Kiran, Shivani Sharma
as `3.05 lakh crore for reforms-based result-linked power distribution sec-                                              copy desk
tor scheme and the `1.4 lakh-crore Swachh Bharat Mission (Urban).                                         Senior Editor: Mahesh Jagota
                                                                                                       Associate Editor: Samali Basu Guha
    Despite its obvious advantages of import substitution — saving pre-                                   Copy Editor: aprajita Sharma
cious forex — PLI will still have to deliver projects on the ground to be con-                                         photography

sidered a success. Early birds in mobile manufacturing such as Samsung,                                Deputy Chief Photographers:
                                                                                                                Yasir Iqbal
Apple’s contractors and Lava have committed investments worth `11,000                          Principal Photographer: Rajwant Singh Rawat

crore. But surprisingly no one has yet made an incentive disbursement                                                         art
                                                                                                        Deputy Art Director: amit Sharma
claim. How this plays out in other sectors will be the true litmus test of PLI.                         Assistant Art Director: Raj Verma
In this issue’s cover story, Joe C.Mathew and Nidhi Singal examine India’s                                              production
quest to be the world’s factory. What works! What doesn’t!                                         Chief of Production: Harish aggarwal
                                                                                              Senior Production Coordinator: Narendra Singh
    From one bright spark to another. Right through the Covid onslaught                         Associate Chief Coordinator: Rajesh Verma
in 2020, India’s IT firms remained the cynosure of all eyes for their con-                                                 library
                                                                                                         Assistant Librarian: Satbir Singh
trarian growth among shrinking economies at home and abroad. NASS-
COM expects Indian IT services segment to grow 2.7 per cent year-on-                             Associate Publisher (Impact): Vidya Menon

year to reach $99 billion in 2020/21, when India’s GDP is set to shrink 8 per                                           impact team
                                                                                             Senior General Manager: Jitendra Lad (West)
cent. Rukmini Rao takes you through Indian IT firms’ innovations drive                       General Manager: Upendra Singh (Bangalore)
                                                                                           Deputy General Manager: Indranil Chatterjee (East)
right through the pandemic. The most notable of those being reskilling
of employees. Large firms such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro, among others,               Marketing: Vivek Malhotra, Group Chief Marketing Officer

embarked on a massive reskilling drive to prepare the workforce for a pan-            Newsstand Sales: Deepak Bhatt, Senior General Manager
                                                                                    (National Sales); Vipin Bagga, General Manager (Operations);
demic-ridden world. TCS alone trained 366,000 employees in new tech-                      Rajeev Gandhi, Deputy General Manager (North),
                                                                                          Syed asif Saleem, Regional Sales Manager (West),
nologies, and over 444,000 in Agile methodologies (software develop-                  S. paramasivam, Deputy Regional Sales Manager (South),
                                                                                           piyush Ranjan Das, Senior Sales Manager (East)
ment methodologies focused on collaboration between cross-functional
teams).
    Meanwhile, with new foreign investment opportunities opening up,                             Vol. 30, No. 9, for the fortnight April 19, 2021 to
                                                                                                    May 2, 2021. Released on April 19, 2021.
the ever-hungry, ever-innovative Indian investors have got hooked on to                Editorial Office: India Today Mediaplex, FC 8, Sector 16/A, Film City, Noida-201301; Tel:
                                                                                    0120-4807100; Fax: 0120-4807150 Advertising Office (Gurgaon): A1-A2, Enkay Centre,
Special Purpose Acquisition Companies. SPACs, also called blank cheque            Ground Floor, V.N. Commercial Complex, Udyog Vihar, Phase 5, Gurgaon-122001; Tel: 0124-
                                                                                    4948400; Fax: 0124-4030919; Mumbai: 1201, 12th Floor, Tower 2 A, One Indiabulls Centre
companies, are listed in the US with the objective of acquiring private           (Jupiter Mills), S.B. Marg, Lower Parel (West), Mumbai-400013; Tel: 022-66063355; Fax: 022-
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firms. They are allowed up to two years to acquire and merge a company.            Teynampet, Chennai-600018; Tel: 044-28478525; Fax: 044-24361942; Bangalore: 202-204
                                                                                    Richmond Towers, 2nd Floor, 12, Richmond Road, Bangalore-560025; Tel: 080-22212448,
Investors holding equity in SPACs get an equivalent stake in the acquired            080-30374106; Fax: 080-22218335; Kolkata: 52, J.L. Road, 4th floor, Kolkata-700071; Tel:
                                                                                  033-22825398, 033-22827726, 033-22821922; Fax: 033-22827254; Hyderabad: 6-3-885/7/B,
firms. SPACs are the fastest and most convenient way to list a company              Raj Bhawan Road, Somajiguda, Hyderabad-500082; Tel: 040-23401657, 040-23400479;
                                                                                   Ahmedabad: 2nd Floor, 2C, Surya Rath Building, Behind White House, Panchwati, Off: C.G.
without going through the prolonged IPO route. Investors have caught on             Road, Ahmedabad-380006; Tel: 079-6560393, 079-6560929; Fax: 079-6565293; Kochi:
                                                                                     Karakkatt Road, Kochi-682016; Tel: 0484-2377057, 0484-2377058; Fax: 0484-370962
to the trend with SPACs accounting for up to 5 per cent of AUM on global            Subscriptions: For assistance contact Customer Care, India Today Group, C-9, Sector 10,
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cently signed an agreement with the US-listed SPAC RMG Acquisition                                Sales: General Manager Sales, Living Media India Ltd, C-9, Sector 10,
                                                                                                                          Noida (U.P.) - 201301;
Corporation II to list on Nasdaq at a valuation of $8 billion. Flipkart and                    Tel: 0120-4019500; Fax: 0120-4019664 © 1998 Living Media India Ltd.
                                                                                       All rights reserved throughout the world. Reproduction in any manner is prohibited.
Grofers are also looking to go public via                                                Printed & published by Manoj Sharma on behalf of Living Media India Limited.
                                                                                        Printed at Thomson Press India Limited, 18-35, Milestone, Delhi-Mathura Road,
this route. India doesn’t allow SPACs just                                               Faridabad-121007, (Haryana). Published at F-26, First Floor, Connaught Place,
                                                                                                                           New Delhi-110001.
yet, but Sebi has set up a committee to                                                                                   Editor: Rajeev Dubey
                                                                                               Business Today does not take responsibility for returning unsolicited
discuss introducing the option for Indian                                                                                 publication material.
                                                                                              All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent
investors as well. Aprajita Sharma catches                                                                   courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only.
the Indian investor frenzy around SPACs.
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FACTORY TO THE WORLD HOW INDIA CAN BECOME THE - BUSINESSTODAY.IN BUSINESS - IS PARKED FREE, COURTESY OF GODADDY.COM.
FACTORY TO THE WORLD HOW INDIA CAN BECOME THE - BUSINESSTODAY.IN BUSINESS - IS PARKED FREE, COURTESY OF GODADDY.COM.
FACTORY TO THE WORLD HOW INDIA CAN BECOME THE - BUSINESSTODAY.IN BUSINESS - IS PARKED FREE, COURTESY OF GODADDY.COM.
May 2, 2021                      Cover by
                                  Volume 30, Number 9         NILANJAN DAS

                                    22
             10
                                  COVER STORY
         The Point

    Banks Get a Breather          How India
                                  Can Become
   NPA ratio of scheduled
commercial banks sees a sharp

                                  The Factory
 improvement in Q3, though
    income growth dips,
 mainly due to the economic
         slowdown
                                  To the World
                                  WHAT INDUSTRY MUST
                                  DO WITH THE NEW
                                  PRODUCTION LINKED
             12                   INCENTIVES TO MAKE
                                  INDIA A GLOBAL
    Assam Grew Fastest            MANUFACTURING HUB
    Among Poll-Bound
       States in Last
        Four Years

             18

         Economy

     Dead Cat Bounce?
    The latest Business Today
   Business Confidence Index
  shows slight improvement in
  overall sentiment despite the
pessimism around economic and
         business issues

6                                 Business Today 2 May 2021
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Content

                                                                54

                                                       Corporate

                                                     A Rough Ride
                                                 once the leader in SuVs,
                                                Mahindra has lost its crown.
                                                The company is resetting its
                                               gameplan to stay clear of me-
                                               too products, replacing them
                                                with vehicles intrinsic to its
                                                  dNa. Can it rise again?

                                                                                                72
               36
                                                                                        Money Today
           Economy
                                                                                        Playing It Safe
       Betting On BoT                                                             how to minimise interest rate,
    worsening NhaI finances                                                        credit and liquidity risks in
are forcing the government to go                                                           debt funds
back to the build-operate-transfer
     model for road projects

                                                                                               76
               40                                                                      Piping Hot From
                                                                66                       Wall Street
            Finance                                                                 Indians are looking to invest
                                                       Technology                  in new-age companies in the
                                                                                   uS via SPaCs; Sebi considers
      Exiting The Easy                                                                      local options
       Money Circle                                   The Location
The RBI adopted multiple regulatory                    Advantage
  forbearance measures and ultra-                  how location mapping
 loose monetary policy to counter                   services are helping
economic headwinds. Now it has to                     businesses and
      work out an exit roadmap                    governments work better
                                                                                                80

                                                                                            Network

           businesstoday.in                                                            Turakhia’s Travel
                                                                                            Diary
                                                                                     Serial entrepreneur Bhavin
                                                                                 Turakhia, who saw successful exits
                                                                                 such as Resellerclub and BigRock,
                                                                                   takes his hike breaks seriously

                     STay CoNNeCTed wITh uS oN
                www.facebook.com/BusinessToday@BT_India
                                                                                                82
                                       An             Feature
                                                                                  Best Advice I Ever Got
          From time to time, you will see pages titled “Focus”, “An
          Impact Feature”, or “Advertorial” in Business Today. These
          are no different from an advertisement and the magazine’s               “Find your core strengths
          editorial staff is not involved in their creation in any way.              and focus on them”
                                                                                        Chandru Kalro

8                                                Business Today 2 May 2021
The Point
                                                         …as
                                      .1
                total               10
                                                       Interest
                                4

               Income
                             9.

                 Dips                                  Income
               0.6%...                                Falls 1.7%
                                     InTereST
                                     Income
                                     (Y-o-Y %)
                                     7.5

                                          InTereST                                                              Big relief
                                          expenSeS                                                               on Bad
                            5. 5

                                          (Y-o-Y %)
                                                                                                               Loans Front
                                   4.8
          3. 48
         3. 46

                                                                                                                                            .8
                                                                                                                                       12
        3.16

                                                                                                                    3 .2
                                                                                    roa also
                                   3 .9

                                                                                                                  9. 10

                                                                                                                                 .3
                                                                                     hints at

                                                                                                                               11
                                                                                    recovery

                                                                                                                            8.7
                                                                                                                 7
                                                                                    reTurn on

                                                                                                                                 5.6
                                                                                                                           4 . 2 5.9
                                                                                    aSSeTS (%)
                                                                        ScBs         pSBs       pVBs
                                                                             0.46

                                                                                                     0.63
                                                                                              0.33
                                                                                       0.26
                                                                      0.01

     ToTal                                   pSBs pVBs ScBs                                                 ScBs pSBs pVBs
   Income
                                                                                     -0.1

                                              coST To Income                                                  GroSS npa
                                                                                                -0.28
                                                                                    -0.3
                                                                         - 0.19

   of ScBs                                       raTIo (%)                                                     raTIo (%)
(lakh crore)
                  -0.6

                                                Costs              ScBs: Scheduled commercIal BankS
                                                                   pSBs: puBlIc SecTor BankS
               ToTal                             Fall
                                                                   pVBs: prIVaTe BankS

               Income
                                              relative to
                           -1.7

               of ScBs
               (Y-o-Y %)                       Income

                                                           Banks Get
                                                          a Breather
          Q3FY19
          Q3FY20
          Q3FY21
                                                -1
                                                   0.
                                                      9
41
                                           .   8

                                                         44 45
                                                           .9 . 4
                                                     46

                                                                           48.
                                                      47
                                                        .4

                                                                           250
                                                                    50.8

                                                                                 55.3

                                                   4.1
                                                 percenTaGe poInTS
nPa ratio of scheduled commercial                    Improvement in
banks sees a sharp improvement in Q3,           gross npa ratio of public
though income growth dips,                      sector banks from 12.8%
mainly due to the economic slowdown            in third quarter of fY19 to
                                                       8.7% in third
By shIVanI sharMa                                     quarter of fY21
Graphics by tanMoy ChakraBorty
The Point

Assam Grew
                                                                         î Four states and one Union Territory are
                                                                         voting in March-April to elect new assemblies.
                                                                         Of these, Assam’s economy grew the fastest

Fastest Among                                                            at 8.6 per cent a year during the four-year
                                                                         period to FY20. It was followed by Tamil Nadu

Poll-Bound
                                                                         (8 per cent), West Bengal (6.7%), Puducherry
                                                                         (6.7 per cent) and Kerala (6.4 per cent)
                                                                         î Of these, Tamil Nadu’s economy is the

States
                                                                         largest (3rd largest in India), followed by West
                                                                         Bengal (6th), Kerala (11th), Assam (17th) and
                                                                         Puducherry (26th)

                                                                                219

                                                                                           222
                                                           8.6

                                                                                                      3
                                                                   6.7

                                                                                                      22
     Tamil nadu
                                                      6. 3
                                           6.7

     west Bengal
                                            8

                                                                                   116
     Kerala
     assam

                                                                                                                         36
     Puducherry

                                                                                           91

                                                                                                           25

                                                                                                                              36
          9.       6.
            1           2
                                                                                                                                24
                            4.

                                                                               Pe r
                                  1.7
                            2

                                        0.

                                                                   P                  cA
                                                             GSd h               inc PitA
                                                                                                                                 22
                                           2

                                                                  w  t
                                                           Gr  o
                                                                     ra g e    ( in '0ome
                                                               a ve                   00          d
                                                           (%,      -20)          F Y20 `,         eB
                                                 in y        F Y 16
                                             r e o m 20
                                                                                       )          (F t/G
                                                                                                    Y2 S
                                                                                                                                        4 .8
                                           A n Y                                                      1) dP
                                         Sh o n F
                    0.3                    c
                                          e )i                                                                                                 6. 2
                        8                   (%
                 3. 5                                                                                   Unem r Ate
          8. 2                                                                                                                            4 .3
                                      Crore)
                             (` lakh my

                                                                                                           (%) in

 13.5
                              ec o n F
                                 S ize o

                                                                                                             Ploy
                                         1
                                       o

                                                                                                                                        3.4
                                in F Y 2

19.4
                                                                                                                  Feb'2

                                                                                                                    m e nt

                                                                                                                                        5.8
                                                                                                                        1

                                                                                                                             Source: Care Ratings

Bank Credit                                                                                              CRedIT GRowTh had
                                                                                                         SlIPPed Below 7 Per

Growth Dips                                                      Outstanding Credit
                                                                    by sCheduled
                                                                                                       cent For the FirSt time
                                                                                                       Since demonetiSAtion
                                                                                                      In MaRCh 2020. IT haS noT

In Spite of
                                                                 COmmerCial banks
                                                                   (Y-o-Y % Change)                     CRoSSed ThIS level In
                                                                                                        anY MonTh SInCe Then
                                                          20

Recovery                                                  15

Growth in outstanding non-
food credit given by scheduled                            10                                                     Outstanding
commercial banks (SCBs) fell from                                                                                    credit
8.5 per cent in January 2020 to                                                                                   to industry
6.6 per cent in February 2021. This                        5                                                           fell
despite the economy coming out                                                                                   0.2 per cent
of the contraction phase in the                           0
third quarter of FY21

     Total non-food         Services                      -5
                                                               Jan-20                    Feb-21
     Industry               Personal                                                                                  Source: RBI

12                                                        Business Today 2 May 2021
Air Cargo                      276
                                                                                                          245
  Traffic                                                                         259
                                 Jan-20                                                     258
                                               268                                                         Feb-21
                                                                                 Oct-20   Dec-20
                                           Feb-20                       239

  Dips 8.5%
                                                                        Sep-20
                                                                                      244      245
                                                  210          192                   Nov-20    Jan-21

  in February                                    Mar-20        Jul-20
                                                                          204
                                                                         Aug-20
                                                                                                        '000 tonnes

                                                                163
                                                               Jun-20
      Total air cargo traffic
     fell 8.5 per cent YoY to                                                        Of this, domestic cargo
     245 thousand tonnes in                                95                     traffic declined 6.6 per cent
          February 2021                                   May-20                   to 99.4 thousand tonnes. It
                                                                                  accounted for 40.6 per cent
                                                                                   of total cargo traffic during
                                                                                             the month
                                                     47
                                                Apr-20

                                                                                                         Source: CMIe

Mutual                                    aum Of indian mf
                                             industry
                                            (`lakh crore)

FunD                             35

                                 28

auM HItS                         21

ReCoRD                           14

                                  7

HIGH                              0
                                      Feb-20    Source: aMFI     Feb-21

î Assets under
management (AUMs) of the
mutual fund industry rose

                                      3.74                     %
16.1 per cent (by `4.4 lakh
crore) YoY to all-time high of
`31.6 lakh crore in February
2021
î Equity schemes had the                   Month-on-month
largest number of folios at                   rise in total
68 per cent (6.59 crore).                    assets under
This was followed by hybrid                  management
schemes with 10 per cent               in February 2021. Equity
share (93 lakh folios) and               schemes' assets rose
debt with 9 per cent share              7.8% month-on-month
(88.9 lakh folios).

                                           2 May 2021 Business Today                                                    13
The Point

              Net SaleS of CV                                   Quarterly Financial
                                                                PerFormance:

               MakerS CroSS
                                                                commercial Vehicles

                                                                                                                         26.5
            Pre-CoVid leVelS
                                                                net sales
                                                                (Y-o-Y % change)

                        î Domestic net sales of commercial
                       vehicle companies rose 26.5 per cent
                                 in the December quarter to

                                                                                                                 -11.1
                                                                -16.2
                         cross pre-Covid levels. This despite

                                                                                  -32.8
                       sales either remaining lower or rising

                                                                         -43.6

                                                                                            -49.6
                          only marginally compared with the
                                            year-ago period

                                                                                                      -82.5
                                              î In February
                                        2021, though, most
                                            companies had                           net sales

                                                                20.4
                                      reported double-digit                        (`'000 crore)

                                                                                                                         20.1
                                            growth in sales,

                                                                                  15.9
                                                                                            14.6

                                                                                                               13.3
                                       mainly due to the low

                                                                         15
                                                 base of the
                                           year-ago period

                                                                                                      3.6
                                                                                             Mar-20
                                                                Jun-19

                                                                         Sep-19

                                                                                   Dec-19

                                                                                                      Jun-20

                                                                                                                Sep-20

                                                                                                                          Dec-20
                                                                          Source: CMIE Industry Outlook

Two-fold Jump in EVs
Sold in Last Three Years
                                                                         1,67,041
                            The demand for                                        FY20
                            electric vehicles
         69,012             (EVs) more than
            FY18
                            doubled in three
                            years to FY20

                               1,43,358
                                     FY19

      The number of
      registered EVs
      jumped from                                               The government has taken
      69,012 in FY18                                            many steps for promotion of
      to 167,041 in                                             EVs which include reduction
      FY20, as per                                              in GST rate from 12 per cent
      the e-vahan                                               to 5 per cent
      portal
                                                                Source: Lok Sabha reply

14                                  Business Today 2 May 2021
Employment of Women
Takes a Hit in February
î In February 2021, the all-India employment
rate for women dipped below the February 2020
level of 8.6 per cent despite signs of economic
recovery in the fourth quarter of FY21
î It had dipped to an all-time low of 5.3 per cent
during the peak of the lockdown in April 2020

                                    emPloyment rate oF Women in india (%)

              all india                                 urban                                     rural

12                                     12                                          12
      8.6      8.8          8.3              7.5         6.6              5.4           9.2                   10.1             9.7
                                                                                    Feb-20                  Jul-20            Feb-21
     Feb-20    Jul-20      Feb-21           Feb-20      Aug-20           Feb-21
 9                                     9                                           9

 6                                     6                                           6

 3                                     3                                           3

 0                                     0                                           0
     Feb-20                Feb-21           Feb-20                     Feb-21           Feb-20                                Feb-21
                                                                                                                  Source: CMIE

Cyber Security
                                                             î Cyber security incidents                              11,58,208
                                                             jumped from 3,94,499 in 2019                                        2020
                                                             to 11,58,208 in 2020, according

Attacks Up Three
                                                             to information tracked by Indian
                                                             Computer Emergency Response
                                                             Team (CERT-In)

Times in 2020                                                î Such attacks had seen a
                                                             four-fold rise in 2018 and
                                                             89 per cent growth in 2019
                                                             î CERT-In is a national agency
                                                             for responding to cyber security
                                                             incidents as per provisions of
                                                                                                                 3,94,499

                                                             Section 70B of Information
                                                             Technology Act, 2000
                                                                                                                       2019
                                                                                                 2,08,456

                                                             cyber security
                                                             incidents
                                                                                                       2018
                                                           49,455

                                                                       50,362

                                                                                    53,117
                                                                                         2017
                                                                2015

                                                                            2016

                                              2 May 2021 Business Today                                                                15
Dead
     C
Boun at
    ce?

             T    ay
         T es Tod
        a
  h e l ess
        n
 T sI ess Ce
 Bu sIn den )
  Bu nfI (B CI ghT
  Codex s slI enT
   In ow vem l                 GR ILLU    By
    sh pro ral                   Ap    S      MA
                                    HI TRA        NU
     Im ove enT e
                                      cS    TIO      KA
                           C             By             US
      In nTIme Th
                                                N
                        mI                  TA B y         HI
                                                              K
              T       o                        NM RA
       se spI Ism on                               Oy j V
       de ssIm d eCess
                                                      cH eR
                                                         AK MA
        pe oun sIn
                                                            RA     &
                                                                BO
         ar d Bu
                                                                   RT
                                                                      y
          an ue s
          Iss
Mild Recovery                                                                                                 Macro
   50.5
                       BCI Has Been Below 50 For Nine
                              Straight Quarters
                                                                                                                                           Stress
 Oct.-Dec.
   2018    49.7                                                                                                                                Inflation Rises
         Jan.-Mar.            49.1                                                                                                           CPI Inflation (Y-oY %)
           2019              Jul.-Sep. 48.6
                               2019   Oct.-Dec.                        48.2
                                                                      Jul.-Sep.

                                                                                                            7.6
                                        2019

                                                                                                            7.3
                                                                                                           6.7

                                                                                                           6.9
                                                                                                           6.2
                                                                                                           7.2
                                                                                                           6.6

                                                                                                           6.7
                                                                                                          6.3
                                                                        2020

                                                                                                         5.8

                                                                                                       4.6
                                                                                                       4.1
                                                                                                        5
                  48.5
                 Apr.-Jun
                  2019                                                                     45.5
                                                               47                         Jan.-Mar.
                                                             Apr.-Jun.

                                                                                                       Feb-20
                                                                                                                Mar-20
                                                                                                                         Apr-20
                                                                                                                                  May-20
                                                                                                                                           Jun-20
                                                                                                                                                    Jul-20
                                                                                                                                                             Aug-20
                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-20
                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-20
                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-21
                                                                                            2021
                                                  46.3        2020
                                                 Jan.-Mar.
                                                   2020

                                                                                                                Industrial production back
                                                                                    43.8
                                          48.4

                                                                                                                     in negative zone
                                                      46.2
                                   44.4

                                                                           45.6
   BCI by                                                    44.8
                     47.5

                                                             48.7
                            43.7

                                                                                  Oct.-Dec.
                                                                                                          10 2.2
                                                 43

   Sector                                                                          2020
                                                                                                           0
   Light
                                                                                                                                                                                                              -1.6
   Industry                                                                                             -10
   is Most                                                                               Jul-Sep
                                                                                                       -20
   Upbeat                                                                                2020
                                                                                         Oct-Dec       -30
                                                                                         2020
                                                                                                       -40
                                                                                                                                                                        IIP (Y-o-Y % change)
                       Services               Light            Heavy                     Jan-Mar
                                                                                                       -50
                                            industry         engineering                 2021
                                                                                                                                                    Apr ’20
                                                                                                       -60
                                                                                                                  Jan-20                            -57.3                                                 Jan-21

   BCI by
                                           48.3
                     49.7

                                                             47.6

                                                                           45.2
                                                      45.8

                                                                                  47.2

                                                                                                44.6
                            46.1

                                                                    43.9
                                          43.6
                            44.9

                                                                                                                                           Exports Rise MoM
                                                                                         42.9

   Size                                                                                                50,000
   Medium                                                                                                                             Imports                         Exports
   Enterprises                                                                                         40,000
                                                                                                                                              (In $ million)
   Are Most                                                                                            30,000
   Optimistic
                                                                                                       20,000

                                                                                                       10,000
                        Big                Medium               Small                Micro
                                                                                                                     0
                     businesses           businesses          businesses           businesses
                                                                                                                             Mar-20                                                                       Mar-21

              Note: NSO has stated that it would not be appropriate to compare the IIP of April and May 2020 with indices of earlier months. The growth
                                               rates in the tabulation are calculated by CMIE from the index numbers.

A
            s India is going through                    that. Market research agency C fore                             The optimism, say experts, is also
            the second wave of Co-                      quizzed 500 CEOs and chief financial                        driven by the fact that most large in-
            vid-19 infections, so are                   officers across 12 cities for the survey.                   stitutions have given lofty growth
            fears of uncertainty and                        Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist at                         projections for FY22. “Institutions
gloom. But the consistent improve-                      Anand Rathi Securities, says the big-                       like IMF, HSBC and RBI have pegged
ment in gross domestic product                          gest reason for the boost in sentiment                      GDP growth for FY22 at 10.5-12.5 per
(GDP) numbers over the past year is                     is GDP growth. “The economy has                             cent. It’s safe to assume that they have
playing a key role in shaping up sen-                   done well quarter after quarter,” he                        taken into account the possible risk
timents of corporate India, as high-                    says. GDP declined sharply by 23.9 per                      factors into their projections,” says
lighted in the latest Business Confi-                   cent in April-June 2020. In the next                        Sanjay Kumar, partner at Deloitte In-
dence Index (BCI) survey.                               quarter, the contraction was lower, at                      dia.
    On a scale of 100, BCI jumped                       7.5 per cent. This was followed by 0.4                          The latest survey shows that the
to 45.5 in the January-March period                     per cent growth in the third quarter.                       respondents were optimistic about
compared to 43.8 in the previous                        Estimates peg fourth quarter growth                         nearly all parameters in January-
quarter and 48.2 in the quarter before                  at 2-3 per cent.                                            March quarter as compared to the

                                                               2 May 2021 Business Today                                                                                                                                    19
Economy – Business Confidence Index

previous quarter (October-December).
Take overall economic conditions. On
                                                                            A Tepid Quarter
a scale of 1 to 10, they gave a rating of 5                         Most Respondents Are Only Mildly Positive
against 4.5 in the previous survey. Similar-                              About the Jan-March Quarter
ly, they were more confident about other
parameters like financial situation (5.1 in                            E O           sc
                                                                     Co con ver           al
                                                                                            e o On
latest survey versus 4.3 last time), demand                            nd om all               f1 a
conditions (5.2 versus 4.2), hiring condi-                               itio ic                 0
tions (4.7 versus 4.1) and profit margins
(4.9 versus 4.5).
                                                                       5 ns
                                                                       .0
     The survey highlights that 57 per cent
respondents expect the second wave
of Covid to affect their businesses for a                 Fina
quarter, and another 22 per cent expect                  Situ ncial
the pain to last for 6-12 months. Econo-                     atio
                                                                  n
mists say despite concerns around the
second wave of Covid-19, and the general                       5.1
belief that it could undo some economic
gains of the past few quarters, the impact
is going to be different on each sector
this time.
     “Recent mobility restrictions imposed
                                                       Demand
in Mumbai, Delhi and Pune in the wake
                                                      Conditions
of rising Covid-19 cases may affect some
services sectors, particularly the hospital-
                                                               5.2
ity and transportation segments. With, of
course, a caveat that this time it will, hope-
fully, not be a complete lockdown like last
                                                                   ng
year. Within the services sector, IT and                      Hiri ns
ITeS, which has large investments and has                      ditio
                                                           Con
created a number of jobs, is likely to do rea-
sonably well, and may hold onto its regular                           4.7
profit margins. Manufacturing sector, on
the other hand, is seen to be having PMI
                                                                                   t
                                                                                ofi s
[Purchasing Managers' Index] higher than
50, though it dipped recently by two points                                   r
                                                                             P gin
                                                                             M 4.9
or so. But on the whole, this still shows a                                   ar
better business sentiment,” says Deloitte
India’s Kumar.
     Contrary to the upbeat mood in the
January-March quarter, the outlook for
April-June has deteriorated. For example,                    Will the second wave                      Will bank NPAs
in four out of five parameters – economic                       of Covid affect                            rise after
prospects of the business, overall econom-                   economic recovery?                       Supreme Court’s
ic situation, demand conditions and prof-                                                             refusal to extend
its – respondents have given lower ratings
                                                       No, there                   Yes, setback       loan moratorium
than the previous survey. In hiring con-               will be no                   of a year or          period and
ditions, though, the rating has been the                impact                         more
                                                                                                       interest waiver?
same as before (4.1 on a scale of 1 to 10).               10                              11
     As per the survey, 64 per cent respon-
dents expect non-performing assets to
rise after the Supreme Court’s refusal to                                                                     Yes
extend the loan moratorium period. In                                                                         64
order to overcome the pandemic-induced                                                 Yes,
                                                      Yes, setback                  setback of           Can’t
slowdown, RBI had announced a loan                    of a quarter                 6-12 months           Say   No
moratorium scheme from March to Au-                       57                              22             21   15

20                                               Business Today 2 May 2021
Low on Confidence                                                    gust last year. Experts say it’s an obvious
                                                                            response from corporates. “Companies
        Most Expect Little Improvement in                                   don’t want to pay but for how long can loan
               April-June Quarter                                           moratorium and interest waiver be given?
                                                                            Banks have the responsibility to pay de-
                                            ll c                            positors. If the debt is not repaid, it will
                                        e ra omi n                          ultimately fall on banks,” says economic
                                      Ov con atio
                             0
                           f1
                                                                            expert.
                          eo           E itu
                      sc n a
                        al

                                                    2
                                          S                                     The survey shows 62 per cent respon-
                        O

                                                  4.                        dents don’t plan to make fresh invest-
                                                                            ments in the next six months while 58
                                                                            per cent expect overall demand to drop
                                                           ic               substantially over the next three months.
                                                       nom
                                                    Eco spects              This is quite contrary to the ground reali-
                                                     Pro                    ties. How?

                                                        4.3
                                                                                A few corporate leaders Business Today
                                                                            spoke with said that both urban and rural
                                                                            demand is looking up. Rural demand is go-
                                                                            ing to be better on account of good rabi
                                                                            (winter) crop and additional allocation of
                                                                            `40,000 crore towards the Mahatma Gan-
                                                         Demand             dhi National Rural Employment Guar-
                                                         Conditions         antee Scheme in the stimulus package
                                                         4.0                last year. “Urban demand has been good
                                                                            too. GST (goods and service tax) collec-
                                                                            tion touched an all-time high of `1.24 lakh
                                                                            crore in March 2021 on the basis of higher
                                                                            consumption. Nonetheless, it’s impor-
                                                   Hir
                                                  Con ing
                                                                            tant that demand stays robust,” says an
                                                      ditio                 economist.
                                                4.1         ns                  As a supplement to the survey, we do
                                                                            an assessment of other economic indica-
                                                                            tors. These include export-import, index
                                                                            of industrial production (IIP) and con-
                                                                            sumer price inflation (CPI). After the re-
                                 P                                          covery in industrial output indicator IIP
                               4. rofits                                    during September-October 2020, the in-
                                 0                                          dex slipped back into the negative zone. It
                                                                            has been negative in two out of last three
                                                                            months. Retail inflation (CPI) continues
                                                                            to remain low at 5 per cent in February
   What’s your view on the                   Do you plan to                 2021 — below the RBI’s upper limit of 6 per
  overall demand scenario                      make fresh                   cent. Exports registered a sharp rise of 58
 over the next three months?               investments in the               per cent (year-on-year) and touched the
                                            next six months?                highest-ever monthly figure of $34 billion
                                                                            in March while imports jumped 53 per cent
Will be stable
                                                                            to $48 billion in the same month.
27                                     Can’t                                    With the spectre of a second wave
Will drop                               Say                                 looming large, perceptions have turned
substantially                              14            Yes
                                                                            slightly negative over the past few weeks.
58                                                       24                 This might take up a lot of mental space of
Will rise                                                                   corporate leaders — affecting sentiments
                                                          No
3                                                         62                — rather than causing any material harm
                                                                            to their businesses.
Can’t say
12                                              (All figures are in %)                                   @manukaushik

                                                2 May 2021 Business Today                                            21
factory to
     the world?
22      Business Today 2 May 2021
cover story
      PLI SCHEME

                                                                `199,641    crore
                                                                  totaL IncentIve
                                                                     offered for
                                                                       fIve years

                                                                    $520    Billion
the Production Linked                                              Projected rIse
Incentive scheme aims to build                                       In domestIc
                                                                 ProductIon over
an Indian manufacturing base                                           fIve years
across 13 key sectors. What
works. What doesn’t.
By Joe C. Mathew and nidhi Singal
                                                                          1.9
                                                                           million
photograph By raJwant rawat
                                                                   Projected joB
                                                                   creatIon over
                                                                       fIve years

                                    2 May 2021 Business Today                   23
cover story
                                                         pli scheme

March 10, the $274 billion, Cupertino, California-based Apple Inc.
announced it is starting production of the 5G-compatible iPhone 12 in
India. It appeared like a routine announcement. After all, Apple has been
assembling older generation iPhones in India through contract manu-
facturers since 2017. It wasn’t.
  It might have been a small step for Apple but was a giant leap for Indian
manufacturing. India’s new Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme
to reduce import dependence and promote local manufacturing had
lured three of Apple’s Taiwanese original equipment manufacturers
— Foxconnn Hon Hai, Wistron and Pegatron — to pump in millions of
dollars to expand Indian facilities. They will move a step up from assem-
bling imported parts here to making or sourcing more components lo-
cally. Like Apple, about 70 firms have shown interest in availing the PLI
Scheme to set up manufacturing facilities in three key sectors: mobile
and electronic components; pharma-APIs (active pharmaceutical in-
gredients); KSM (key starting materials) and medical devices.
24                           Business Today 2 May 2021
WhAT
WoRkS…                                                         By December 2020, the applicant mobile and electron-
                                                          ics makers had invested `1,300 crore, producing goods
                                                          worth `35,000 crore, creating 22,000 additional jobs. The
Around 5% of committed MRP gets                           Centre was so enthused by the response of companies such
reimbursed, cushions high costs,                          as Apple to the Large Scale Electronics Manufacturing
makes domestic
production competitive                                    Scheme that it made mobile PLI the template for extend-
                                                          ing the scheme to 12 other sectors covering hundreds of
PLI output to cut import dependence                       diverse products such as air-conditioners, printed circuit
on key raw materials                                      boards, solar photovoltaic cells and LED lights. For compa-
                                                          nies willing to expand or set up plants in the 13 sectors, the
PLI incentives, R&D support,                              scheme offers a massive incentive of `1,99,641 crore ($26.6
increased scale of manufacturing and                      billion) over the next five years to substitute imports, aug-
other sops such as those in industrial                    ment domestic production, increase exports and build a
parks to make Indian products
globally competitive                                      manufacturing ecosystem that could provide jobs to about
                                                          1.9 million people over the five years. If successful, it could
Strict timelines and committed annual                     put India on the path to be a $5 trillion economy.
increase in production will help                               The scheme was launched as part of the Covid-19 eco-
companies make clear business plans                       nomic stimulus. It covers auto and auto components, tele-
                                                          com, pharma, medical devices, IT hardware, food products,
No ambiguity on Centre's outgo as                         textiles, steel, air conditioners, Advance Cell Chemistry
maximum incentives are defined                            (ACC) batteries, mobile and electronic components, phar-
based on pre-fixed prices and                             ma API and medical devices. A CRISIL research report says
production targets
                                                          the PLI Scheme — directed at sectors that account for 30-35
                                                          per cent of India’s non-oil import bill — can lead to `2-2.7

…AND WhAT
DoeSN’T
PLI for mobile phones/medical devices
became operational very late. So,
companies could miss out on the
first-year benefits

While it is lucrative for sectors like
mobile phones, electronics, telecom
and IT hardware, it may not be so for
others such as specialty steel and
textiles

No penalty for not adhering to
timeline, so companies can avoid
enhancing production if demand
remains subdued

Schemes mostly target big players;
small firms may not find opportunities

Unless government takes
protectionist measures like increasing
import duties,PLI beneficiaries may
face importers slashing prices to
nullify their cost advantage

                                         2 May 2021 Business Today                                                    25
lakh crore capital expenditure over two to three years and
generate `35-40 lakh crore revenue during its entire period.
      Can the enthusiasm of mobile phone makers be repeat-
ed in other segments? Can a purely demand-driven scheme
(incentive is linked to incremental production and produc-
tion is linked to demand) make a difference when demand
and growth continue to lag in a pandemic-hit world?
      But even as companies approach the PLI Scheme with

                                                                                                                                        photograph by VikraM SharMa
excitement and cautious optimism, there are several un-
answered questions. First, will such interest translate
into projects on ground? After all, the base year for mo-
bile phone PLI was 2019/20, implying
the first incentive tranche was due in
2020/21. But no company has so far
approached the government with an
incentive disbursement claim yet, the
Lok Sabha was informed during the
Budget session.
      India has over the years offered

                                                              Of the estimated production
many incentives to attract manufactur-
ing investment. One was tax holidays
in specific locations. Manufacturing in                       of `10.5 lakh crore over the
union territories like Puducherry or hill
states like Himachal Pradesh did ben-
                                                              next five years, around
efit through such schemes. Then there                         60 per cent will be exports”
were manufacturing parks where, along                         ravi shankar Prasad, Union Minister
with tax benefits, investors could utilise                    for Electronics and Information
common services and infrastructure.                           Technology
Special Economic Zones offered incen-
tives exclusively for export-oriented
units. Many tax schemes got rational-
ised with the introduction of the Goods
and Services Tax.                                                       Samsung and local brand Lava, are in the process of setting
      The big advantage of the PLI Scheme is that it supple-            up additional mobile phone capacities by investing `11,000
ments all other sops, is not location-specific, and has noth-           crore over the next five years. While foreign players have
ing to do with tax. Here, the government will pay a certain             cumulatively proposed production of `9 lakh crore worth of
percentage of the value of additional production compa-                 mobile phones (unit price of `15,000 or more) utilising en-
nies make, after fulfilling pre-fixed annual, incremental               hanced capacities, Indian firms together will be manufac-
investment and production criteria. Under PLI, companies                turing another `1.24 lakh crore worth of feature and smart
will earn as direct payments, on average, 5-6 per cent more             phones during this period. Hypothetically, at 18 per cent
than what they would otherwise get. While for companies,                GST (and assuming that more than half the production is
it is a top-up incentive, for the government, it is assured ad-         exported), this could mean at least `36,000 crore tax reve-
ditional investment, production and job creation for every              nue for the Central government. That’s a good return for the
rupee it spends as incentive. Most importantly, it is WTO               `40,951 crore worth of incentives over the next five years.
compatible.                                                                 The gains go beyond revenues. The government be-
                                                                        lieves electronics alone can generate 2,00,000 direct and
The Initial Boost                                                       6,00,000 indirect jobs in the next five years. It is expected
The PLI Scheme for mobiles and electronics parts is built on            to increase domestic value addition in mobile phones from
commitment by the industry to invest more, produce more                 15-20 per cent to 35-40 per cent. The excitement is palpable.
and claim incentives that on average amount to 5 per cent               “Many people have started talking to us. I have invested
of incremental revenue a year during the scheme period.                 more than `100 crore in plant and machinery. Given an op-
Sixteen foreign and Indian companies, including Apple,                  portunity, I can even produce Apple devices,” says Rajesh

26                                                  Business Today 2 May 2021
cover story
                                                           PLI scheme

Agrawal, Director, Bhagwati Private Ltd, which makes mo-                 cantly. “Of the estimated production of `10.5 lakh crore
bile phones for Micromax and others. The PLI Scheme for                  over the next five years, around 60 per cent (`6.5 lakh crore)
mobile phones has got international attention too.                       will be exports,” says Ravi Shankar Prasad, Union Minister
                                                                         for Electronics and Information Technology.
Why China is Worried
India’s quest to be a factory to the world has rattled China as          But Why PLI?
it could lose manufacturing opportunities. Industry play-                PLI was conceived to set off the higher cost of manufac-
ers say China, the world’s largest supplier of mobile phones             turing in India as compared to China. It seeks to cushion
and parts, is trying to dissuade companies from shifting                 industry from higher costs due to steeper tax rates, finance
to India. “The Chinese government has reached out to big                 costs, power tariffs and land prices. A parliamentary panel
contract manufacturers to demotivate them from applying                  recently said logistics costs alone account for 13 per cent of
for the PLI Scheme,” says an industry source.                            India’s GDP, higher than developed countries’ figure of less
     The government expects companies to export signifi-                 than 10 per cent. The Covid-19 induced hardships made the

  WhaT's Been aChIeved…
                   Maximum         Current       Winning Firms
                   Incentive       Status
 Mobile and         40,951       Operational     Samsung, Rising Star, Foxconn Hon Hai, Wistron, Pegatron, Lava, Bhagwati
 electronics                                     (Micromax), Padget Electronics, UTL Neolyncs, Optiemus Electronics, AT&S,
 components                                      Ascent Circuits, Visicon, Walsin, Sahasra, Neolync
 Pharma -           6,940        Operational     Aurobindo Pharma, Karnataka Antibiotics, Centrient Pharmaceuticals India, Ma-
 API & KSM                                       cleods, Natural Biogenex, Anasia Lab, Andhra Organics, Solana Life Sciences,
                                                 RMC Performance Chemicals, Surya Remedies, Honour Lab, Hindys Lab,
                                                 Dasami Lab, Rajasthan Antibiotics, Hetero Drugs, Hazelo Lab, Kinvan, Symbio-
                                                 tec Pharmalab, Saraca Laboratories, Meghmani LLP, Aarti Speciality Chemicals
 Medical            3,420        Operational     Siemens Healthcare, Allengers Medical Systems Limited, Wipro GE Healthcare,
 devices                                         Nipro India Corporation, Sahajanand Medical Technologies
Maximum incentive in `crore

…and The fuTure PLan
             Sector                Maximum              Current status
                                   Incentive
 Auto and auto components            57,042         Awaiting Cabinet nod
 ACC battery                         18,100         Awaiting Cabinet nod
 Pharma – drugs                      15,000          Cleared by Cabinet
 Telecom and Networking              12,195          Cleared by Cabinet
 Food products                       10,900          Cleared by Cabinet
 Textiles                            10,683         Awaiting Cabinet nod
 Electronics and IT hardware          7,350          Cleared by Cabinet
 Specialty steel                     6,322          Awaiting Cabinet nod
 White goods                         6,238           Cleared by Cabinet
 Solar PV modules                    4,500           Cleared by Cabinet

Maximum incentive in `crore

                                                      2 May 2021 Business Today                                                     27
cover story
                                                         pli scheme

scheme even more useful for industry.                                 cent non-oil merchandise trade deficit. The scheme cov-
     While the PLI Scheme does not specifically incentiv-             ers almost all top 10 import items except petroleum prod-
ise exports, it also has the potential to help manufacturing          ucts, gems and jewellery and fertilisers. It has the potential
gain scale and become competitive, apart from promoting               to increase India’s share in the global supply chain, reduce
exports and narrowing the trade deficit. It is in line with           import dependence (especially on China) and create man-
a demand made by the Confederation of Indian Industry                 ufacturing champions — all in the next five-seven years.
four years ago.                                                       The high expectations were spelled out by Prime Minister
     The scheme can also help India reduce dependence on              Narendra Modi when he said the “scheme would result in
imports for key raw materials. According to India Exim                increasing production by about $520 billion in the next five
Bank Research, nearly 79 per cent imports in 2019 were of             years.” But what is PLI all about?
intermediate goods. “Clearly, India’s manufacturing sec-
tor has significant dependence on imported intermediates,             The Scheme
which can be reduced by greater localisation of manufac-              AtmaNirbhar Bharat 3.0, or the third set of Covid-19 eco-
turing activities through the PLI Scheme,” says Prahala-              nomic stimulus announced by Finance Minister Nir-
than Iyer, Chief General Manager, Export-Import Bank of               mala Sitharaman on November 12, 2020, spelt out the PLI
India. The Exim Bank analysis reveals that India’s trade              Scheme in its current scope and size. The government
deficit on account of just five sectors in the PLI list — ACC         added 10 sectors with a commitment to set aside `1.46 lakh
battery, electronics, medical devices, solar PV and white             crore over five years. This was in addition to the three sec-
goods — was $40.9 billion in 2019/20, accounting for more             tors – electronics (`40,951 crore), pharmaceuticals (`6,940
than a quarter of merchandise trade deficit and 56.8 per              crore) and medical devices (`3,420) crore – totalling `51,311

     POTENTIAL PLI CANDIDATES
     28 Industries Across 9 sectors
           Sector          Industry                                              Why This Sector

 Aerospace & Defence       Aircraft components & sub-systems                     60% requirement met by imports
                           Auto-Electricals & Electronics, Automotive Bat-
 Auto & auto
                           teries, Heavy Commercial Vehicles, Construction       Contributes 45% to GDP
 components
                           Machinery, Passenger Cars, 2/3 wheelers
                                                                                 Infrastructure push, easing FDI norms to
 Cement                    Cement
                                                                                 result in demand surge
                           Agro Intermediates, Agro Chemicals, Basic Poly-
 Chemicals                 mers and Elastomers, Construction Chemicals,          Accounts for 5.4% of Indian exports
                           Other Performance Chemicals
                           Pumps and Valves, Machine Tools, Pressure Ves-
 Engineering                                                                     Contributes 12% to manufacturing GDP
                           sels, Solar PV
                           Conventional Lighting and LED Lighting,
                                                                                 Rising import dependence, huge local de-
 ESDM                      Mobile Phones, Printed Circuit Boards
                                                                                 mand, contributes 12% to manufacturing GDP
                           and Sub-Assemblies
                           Bulk Drugs, Generic Pharmaceuticals,                  20% global exports in generics, 10% share in
 Pharma
                           Pharma APIs                                           global pharma by volume
                                                                                 Severe competition from China, other FTA
 Steel                     Flats, Forgings and Castings, Longs
                                                                                 countries
                                                                                 Already employs 49 million, potential for
 Textile                   Apparel, Made-ups
                                                                                 another 50 million jobs by 2025
Source: CII-Champion Manufacturing Industries 2025

28                                                   Business Today 2 May 2021
crore that were already under the scheme (the Cabinet had                    schemes that followed, was borne out of a desire to op-
approved PLI for Large Scale Electronics Manufacturing on                    erationalise the National Policy on Electronics 2019 that
March 21, 2020, four days before the first lockdown. Phar-                   talked about positioning India as the world’s Electronics
maceuticals and medical devices were added on July 21).                      Factory. About 50 industry leaders representing leading
    At present, approvals for eligible companies have been                   global and Indian electronic companies such as Apple,
given for these three sectors, though the list is not complete               Samsung, Lava, Xiaomi, Bosch, Foxconn, Panasonic and
in case of pharmaceutical and medical device segments. Of                    Wistron met Ravi Shankar Prasad at Vigyan Bhawan,
the remaining 10 sectors, Cabinet approvals for six — phar-                  New Delhi, on September 16, 2019. Prasad’s ministry
maceutical products like complex generics, biopharmaceu-                     came out with a scheme for financial incentive to boost
ticals, etc (`15,000 crore incentive), IT hardware prod-                     domestic manufacturing and attract investments in the
ucts like laptops, tablets, personal computers and servers                   electronics value chain, including electronic components
(`5,000 crore), telecom and networking products (`12,195                     and semiconductor packaging. It extended an incentive
crore), food processing (`10,900 crore), white goods like                    of 4-6 per cent on incremental revenue (over 2019/20) of
air-conditioners and LEDs (`6,238 crore) and solar PV                        goods manufactured in India and covered under target
modules (`4,500 crore) — are also in place.                                  segments for a period of five years from the base year. The
    Cabinet approvals, followed by notification with op-                     eligibility conditions included minimum incremental in-
erational guidelines, can happen any day for automobiles                     vestments and revenue. While incremental revenue tar-
& auto components (`57,042 crore), ACC battery (`18,100                      get for domestic mobile phone companies begins at `500
crore), textile products (`10,683 crore) and specialty steel                 crore in year one to `5,000 crore in year five; for foreign
(`6,322 crore). Since it is time-bound, companies will get a                 players, it is `4,000 crore in year one to `25,000 crore in
fixed time to apply. Government approval will come within                    year five. Domestic firms have to commit an incremen-
the stipulated period to help eligible firms meet thresholds                 tal investment of `200 crore over four years. For foreign
for availing the incentive. The incentive will be paid to the                players, this is `1,000 crore. Apart from mobile phones,
benefeciary through direct transfer to bank accounts.                        there were about a dozen segments such as SMT (surface
                                                                             mount technology) components, discrete semiconduc-
Electronics Industry: On Track                                               tor devices, Printed Circuit Boards, etc. While AT&S, As-
The PLI Scheme for electronics, the template for all other                   cent Circuits, Visicon, Walsin, Sahasra and Neolync were

CUTTING THE IMPORT BILL:
these sectors Account for 30-35%
of India's Non-oil Import Bill
 Sectors                      Target segment under PLI          Import Bill FY 20        Import as % of                Dependent
                                                                   (`crore)              Consumption                  Geographies
 Automobiles and                    Semi-finished
                                                                80,000-90,000                20-25%                    China, Korea
 components                       and Final products
 Telecom and
                                     Final product              50,000-60,000                65-75%                    China, Korea
 networking products
 White goods
                                     Final product              35,000-45,000                20-30%                        China
 (AC and LED lights)
 Pharmaceuticals
                                     Raw material               20,000-25,000                30-40%                        China
 (API and KSM)
 Speciality Steel                    Final product              20,000-25,000                30-35%                China, Korea, Japan
 Solar photovoltaic
                                     Final product               11,000-12,000               80-85%            China, Singapore, Vietnam
 modules
Raw materials for auto, white goods, IT hardware and medical devices are metals and plastic. For pharma, it is KSM, semi-finished is API and
final product is drug/formulation. In white goods, imports of only RAC and LED lights considered. In IT hardware, imports of only laptops,
PCs, tablets and servers considered. Source: CRISIL

                                                         2 May 2021 Business Today                                                             29
cover story
                     pli scheme

selected for incentives under the Specified Electronic
Components Segment, Samsung, Rising Star, Foxconn

                                                                 photograph by bandeep singh
Hon Hai, Wistron, Pegatron, Lava, Bhagwati (Micro-
max), Padget Electronics, UTL Neolyncs and Optiemus
Electronics got approval for making mobile phones. “The
game has started now. The government of India has un-
derstood what to do," says Bhagwati's Agrawal.

Pharma: In Sweet Spot
The response to the pharmaceutical schemes — there are
two packages, one is already in force, while the other is in
the notification stage — has been encouraging. The first
scheme — PLI for Critical Key Starting Materials/Drug

     What is needed is enabling our
     industry to become globally
     competitive. Our cost is very
     high, be it logistics, power
     or raw material. One way to
     overcome that is scale”
     R.C. Bhargava, Chairman, Maruti Suzuki

Intermediaries and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient                                            derabad-based Aurobindo Pharma has bagged most ap-
— targets 41 highly or almost entirely import dependent                                        provals in Segment I, which provides incentives to set up
products from four target segments. The second one is                                          greenfield facilities for fermentation-based key starting
meant to promote innovation for development of complex                                         materials and drug intermediates for production of med-
and high-tech products, including those used in emerging                                       icines like penicillin G and Erythromycin Thiocynate.
therapies, apart from in-vitro diagnostic devices and im-                                      Eleven companies, including Macleods Pharmaceutical
portant drugs not manufactured in India.                                                       for Rifampicin and Natural Biogenex for commonly pre-
     “We are very happy with the government decision, it is                                    scribed Betamethasone and Dexamethasone, will make
timely. We have 68 per cent import dependence on China                                         essential raw materials for key medicines. The incentive
for these products. The PLI-I Scheme will bring down this                                      for this six-year PLI varies from 10 per cent to 20 per cent
dependency by 25 per cent and PLI-II by another 25 per                                         depending on the manufacturing process. “We looked at
cent. Only nominal dependence on China will remain,”                                           our captive consumption, and the products that were on
says B.R. Sikri, Chairman, Federation of Pharma Entre-                                         the PLI list. We realised that if we select some of those
preneurs.                                                                                      products, we have some assured business. Today majori-
     The number of applicants shows the scheme is                                              ty of these products are imported, that too from China.,”
making business sense. Of the 215 applications for 36                                          says Madan Mohan Reddy, Director, Aurobindo Pharma.
products in four segments, 47, with total committed                                            The company is in the midst of finalising the land for the
investment of `5,366.35 crore, have been approved. Hy-                                         new plant.

30                                                 Business Today 2 May 2021
THE INCENTIVES FOR                                                          These plants will entail a total investment of `729.63 crore
MOBILE PHONE MAkERS                                                         and employ about 2,300 people. Commercial production is
                                                                            projected to commence from April 1, 2022. Disbursal of PLI
 Proposed                Incremental          Incremental                   over the five-year period will be up to `121 crore per appli-
 incentive              investment (`)           sales
                                                                            cant per target segment.
 First Year - 6%           250 crore         `4,000 crore                       “The industry’s views were accepted by the govern-
 Second Year 6%           500 crore          `8,000 crore                   ment, especially on reducing the threshold investment
 Third Year 5%             750 crore        `15,000 crore
                                                                            limit and criteria,” say Bhargav Kotadia, Managing Di-
                                                                            rector, SMTPL. His company has committed investment
 Fourth Year 5%          1,000 crore        `20,000 crore                   of `166.89 crore to manufacture products like heart
 Fifth Year 4%                              ` 25,000 crore                  valves, stents, PTCA balloon dilatation catheters and
Total - `1,000 crore over four years; *devices priced at minimum            heart occluders. This is one of the largest in the current
of `15,000; incremental values are over base year. Source: Meity            set of approvals.
                                                                                 The company has made considerable progress in con-
                                                                            structing a facility in the medical devices park in Telangana.

 THE PROCESS TO
                                                                            “This is envisaged as Asia’s largest stent manufacturing and
                                                                            R&D facility. It will manufacture over 1.2 million stents and
 GET PLI BENEFITS                                                           two million catheters a year at full capacity. We will also
                                                                            house and develop advanced medical products in interven-
 • Any company registered in                                                tional cardiovascular, endovascular and other niche devices
   India can apply                                                          in the CVD (cardiovascular diseases) domain,” he says.
                                                                                Wipro GE Healthcare Private Ltd plans to invest about
 • Eligible applications to be approved by                                  `100 crore over the next three-four years for manufactur-
   Empowered Committee comprising                                           ing medical devices. “As dependency shifts to our local
   CEO NITI Aayog, DGFT, Secretaries
   of Economic Affairs/Expenditure/                                         manufacturing hub over the next few years, the need for im-
   Revenue/Meity/DPIIT                                                      porting these products will naturally decrease. It certainly
                                                                            (PLI participation) is a combination of import substitution
 • Selected companies to fulfil production                                  and higher growth rate propelled by lower cost leading to
   and investment thresholds to make                                        additional revenues,” says Shravan Subramanyam, Presi-
   disbursement claims                                                      dent & CEO, GE Healthcare, India & South Asia.

 • Empowered Committee will scrutinise                                      Next In Line
   and approve claims
                                                                            The next set of Cabinet approvals came for three schemes
                                                                            in February 2021. These are more or less connected to the
 • Incentives paid to eligible applicants by
   direct transfer to bank accounts                                         three operational ones. While the two schemes targeting
                                                                            IT hardware and telecom and networking products can be
                                                                            seen as an attempt to complete what started with mobile
                                                                            phones and other electronics products last year, the phar-
                                                                            maceutical scheme aims to cover a much bigger universe
Medical Devices: Adding Muscle                                              of medicines to make India self-reliant in essential ingredi-
The third PLI Scheme where companies have been chosen                       ents used in life-saving drugs.
(not all applications have been examined and some more                          “Consumption of IT hardware is perhaps the largest af-
approvals will happen soon) and investments are already                     ter mobile phones. PLI for this segment can do what it did
happening is for medical devices. The incentive size is small               to mobile phones,” says Satya Gupta, Chairperson, India
compared to others, but the impact could be huge as self-                   Electronics and Semiconductor Association and founder
reliance in selected products — CT Scan, MRI, Ultrasonog-                   and CEO, Seedeyas Innovations. The major thrust of the
raphy, X-Ray, Cath Lab, Positron Emission Tomography                        scheme is on laptops and tablets whose demand is largely
Systems, Heart Valves, Stents, PTCA Balloon Dilatation                      met through imports (valued at $4.21 billion and $0.41 bil-
Catheter and heart occluders — is critical for India.                       lion, respectively, in FY20). The scheme offers an incentive
    Siemens Healthcare, Allengers Medical Systems, Wipro                    of 4 per cent to 2 per cent to 1 per cent on net incremental
GE Healthcare, Nipro India Corporation and Sahajanand                       revenue (over base year 2019/20) to eligible companies for a
Medical Technologies (SMTPL) have received approval.                        period of four years. The incentive outlay is `7,350 crore. It

                                                           2 May 2021 Business Today                                                   31
cover story
                                                        PLI SCHEME

is expected to benefit five global and 10 domestic players and
generate over 1,80,000 jobs in four years. The domestic value
addition in IT hardware is expected to rise to 20-25 per cent by
2025. “Today, only 15-20 per cent of domestic consumption
is made in India. Servers are 100 per cent imported, laptops
are 90-95 per cent imported, and only 30 per cent desktops
are made here. Four companies — HP, Lenovo, Dell and Acer
— manufacture in India currently,” says George Paul, CEO,
Manufacturers Association of Information Technology. Ac-

                                                                                                                                     photograph by rajwant rawat
cording to him, PLI cannot herald changes overnight. “When
China started out, it developed an integrated strategy that
stitched together a series of steps needed towards maximis-
ing value addition in China. India is doing the same thing. It
is not a one-year strategy. We shouldn’t
lose sight of our goal,” he adds.
     Acer, the Taiwanese hardware and
electronics major, feels the PLI Scheme
will generate jobs, lead to better pricing
and develop adjacent ecosystems. The
company, which makes tablets and lap-
tops in India, says it can boost manu-
facturing in the IT hardware segment.                         After Covid-19, when demand
“We do intend to apply for PLI via our
ecosystem vendors,” says Sudhir Goel,
                                                              is perhaps at an all-time low,
Chief Business Officer, Acer India.                           who will these manufacturers
     In telecom equipment, the focus                          produce for and why would
products are transmission equipment,
4G/5G Next Generation Radio Access                            they empty their pockets with
Network and Wireless Equipment, Ac-                           investments immediately?”
cess & Customer Premises Equipment,
                                                              Gourav Vallabh, Congress Spokesperson
Internet of Things devices, Access De-
vices and other wireless and enterprise
equipment like switches and routers.
The aim is to reduce the huge import
of telecom equipment worth more
than `50,000 crore. The incentive to approved companies is            pharmaceutical ingredients, key starting materials and
`12,195 crore over five years.                                        drug intermediates that were not there in last year’s phar-
     Ericsson, the first telecom vendor to start making tele-         ma PLI. The third covers repurposed drugs, auto immune
com equipment in India, way back in 1994, expects PLI to              drugs, and anti-cancer, anti-diabetic, anti-infective, car-
provide a fillip to component manufacturing. Nitin Bansal,            diovascular, psychotropic and anti-retroviral drugs. The
MD, Ericsson India, says the company is waiting for the fi-           scheme period is from 2020/21 to 2028/29.
nal guidelines to take a call on participation. “The process of           On March 31, the government notified the fourth
claiming incentives and timelines for pay-out of incentives           scheme, PLI for the food processing industry, for implemen-
are important considerations,” he says.                               tation during 2021/22 to 2026/27, with an outlay of `10,900
     Meanwhile, the second PLI Scheme for pharmaceuticals             crore. The scheme will encourage investment in four food
has come as part of an umbrella programme to make the In-             segments — Ready to Cook/Ready to Eat, processed fruits
dian pharmaceutical industry self-reliant. The incentives are         and vegetables, marine products and mozzarella cheese.
structured under three categories. The first covers biophar-          The government says the aim is to support creation of global
maceuticals, complex generic drugs, patented drugs or drugs           food manufacturing champions, support Indian value-add-
nearing patent expiry, cell-based or gene therapy drugs,              ed food brands in international markets, increase off-farm
orphan drugs, special empty capsules, complex excipients,             jobs and ensure remunerative prices to farmers. Amul, ITC,
phyto-pharmaceuticals, etc. The second covers some active             Nestle, Britannia and Keventer Agro are among the major

32                                                 Business Today 2 May 2021
2019-20 (sectors in which PLI has

                                                                            top 10                                                                                                              been announced for some products)
153.65 / 32.37%

                                                                            imported
                                                                                                                                                                                                2019-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                2020-21 (April-Dec)
                                                                            items                                                                                              in $ billion / % share

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10.73 / 2.26%
                                                                                                                                                                               Source: Commerce

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5.56 / 2.13%
                                                                                                                                                                               Ministry

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  9.25 / 1.95%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 6.01 / 2.3%
                                                                            54.49 / 11.48%
                         65.70 / 25.13%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6.06 / 2.32%
                                                                                                              43.37 / 9.14%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6.71 / 1.41%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 9.87 / 2.08%
                                          49.19 / 10.36%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                8.13 / 3.11%
                                                                                                                                                                                14.21 / 2.99%
                                                                                                                              25.33 / 9.69%

                                                                                                                                                                                                  8.68 / 3.32%
                                                                                                                                               19.82 / 4.17%
                                                                                             29.94 / 11.45%

                                                                                                                                                               13.71 / 5.25%
                                                           32.55 / 12.45%

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                  players to have shown interest in the scheme.                                                                                                                                 75 per cent in the next three years, says Sharma.
                      The most recent ones to get Cabinet nod are PLI on                                                                                                                            The government wants to encourage local solar PV
                  white goods, primarily air-conditioners, and high efficien-                                                                                                                   panel manufacturing to reduce the possibility of hacking
                  cy solar PV modules to create additional 10,000 MW solar                                                                                                                      of the value chain. Among the estimated benefits are direct
                  PV manufacturing capacity. Both were notified on April                                                                                                                        investment of `17,200 crore in setting up solar PV manu-
                  7, 2021 “The first objective is to manufacture, not just as-                                                                                                                  facturing projects, direct employment to about 30,000 and
                  semble, in India. At present, many components come from                                                                                                                       indirect employment to about 1,20,000 people and import
                  elsewhere. Last year, the Indian AC market was around 7.5                                                                                                                     substitution of `17,500 crore worth of products every year.
                  million units. Of this, 2.5 million were imported, which has
                  come down significantly due to ban on import of ACs with                                                                                                                      Awaiting Approval
                  refrigerants. Further, value addition is very low, just about                                                                                                                 The companies eyeing opportunities arising out of the last
                  25 per cent,” says Manish Sharma, President & CEO, Pana-                                                                                                                      four categories — automobiles, ACC batteries, textiles and
                  sonic India, and Chairperson, Ficci Electronics & White                                                                                                                       speciality steel — are waiting for details of the scheme. In
                  Goods Manufacturing Committee. Sharma expects the                                                                                                                             these cases, Cabinet approval should come first. Opera-
                  market to touch nine million this year of which 8-8.5 mil-                                                                                                                    tional guidelines will follow.
                  lion will be manufactured locally. At present, there is 25 per                                                                                                                    The biggest scheme is for the automotive industry.
                  cent local value addition. The PLI Scheme can take this to                                                                                                                    There is a `57,042 crore incentive for automobile and auto

                                                                                                                                              2 May 2021 Business Today                                                                                                                                                                 33
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