FINANCIAL FORECAST BOARD MEETING - David Sidwell, Assietou Diouf 30 July 2020, Virtual Meeting - Gavi, the Vaccine ...
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Classified as Internal
FINANCIAL FORECAST
BOARD MEETING
David Sidwell, Assietou Diouf
30 July 2020, Virtual Meeting
www.gavi.orgClassified as Internal
Forecasting…the journey
October AFC
July AFC
▪ Annual forecasts
update
• Covid19 impact
• Replenishment ▪ Board decisions
on Covax Facility
July & & Covax AMC
December December
2019 Board September ▪ Board decisions 2020
Board on additional Board
investments
Focus on near term
2020-2021 We are here
2
2021-2025
Board Meeting
30 July 2020Classified as Internal
Main Assumptions
Vaccines Medium Severity Scenario Outcome of the
HSS Replenishment
6-month acute pandemic period
12-24 months recovery with COVID
19 resurgence in some countries Board
2016-2020 2021-2025
Medium economic downturn and Decisions on
social stability with some exceptions Gavi’s
Gavi-supported countries US$ 1.375 US$ 1.2
response to
substantially affected for 1-3 years billion billion support
countries
WHO Bottom-up review of each country’s Delays in
near-term anticipated disbursements
Pulse countries in RI
survey
outputs
3 Board meeting
30 July 2020Classified as Internal
Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Gavi’s core mission
BREAK-DOWN BY ANTIGEN OF DELAYED INTRODUCTIONS
AND CAMPAIGNS DUE TO COVID-19
68 15 39 delayed due 100% = 39
7
8 24
to COVID-19 3YF
1
Campaign
43 Men A
18 3
IMPACT Measles 12
ON 2020 IPV
TARGETS 6 6 4
5 9
1
Intro. 25 1 5 7
Typhoi
4 d 4
4 7
3 4 6
6
3
Total Moved Delayed Risk of Delayed Not Completed
target to
2021
delay (not
Covid
affected
so far
Rota
related)
MR
HPV
Of the 39 identified: 30 were in the Dec-19 Board forecast (77%), 23 have
approvals (58%) and 15 have been disbursed (38%). Of the 24 Delayed,
19 currently with re-schedule intro dates are within 2020 Data as of 22/06/2020
Source: Gavi Vaccine Launch Database, also available on Country Dashboard; CP COVID Tracker, 22 June 2020
Board meeting
30 July 2020Classified as Internal
Gavi’s immediate response to supporting countries …at a glance
Countries Partners
Pillar 1: HSS Re-Programming UNICEF Pre Financing
Immediate Support • PPE
for Country Response • Freight
Pillar 2: Supplemental Approaches PEF – TCA and SFA As presented to
Maintain, Restore & including: the Board in May
Strengthen • PIRI’s
Immunisation • Catch up campaigns
& June 2020
Services
▪ 2020 Co-Financing Waivers
Pillar 3:
Responding to Fiscal ▪ 2021 freezing of Eligibility
Impact
▪ Prevention of Backsliding
in former Gavi eligible
5
countriesClassified as Internal
Short Term impact : 2020-2021 Expenditures (in US$ million)
Refer Annex 2
2020
150 20 -188
78 15 6 -75
40 -75
2,119 8 -50
-9 2,040
$79m
Original Charter PPE Adv. Supplemnt. TCA SFA Co-financing Post Updated Programmatic Delayed Updated Secretariat New
forecast Freight Adv. - UNICEF Delivery waiver transition PCV-AMC disruption new intros & cashflow Forecast
- UNICEF Actv. (Vax) support assumptions campaigns assumptions
2021 10 10 -20
51
30 -140
1,858 52
-40 1,803
-8
Original Suppl. HSS TCA SFA Freezing Programmatic Delayed Updated VIS Updated New
forecast Delivery transition disruption new intro & assumptions Cashflow Forecast
Actv. (Vax) phase campaigns assumptions
6 Pillar (a): Immediate Pillar (c): Resp. Updates to Forecast Assumptions
Pillar (b): Maintain & Restore
Response to Fiscal Impact
on Immun.
SvcsClassified as Internal
Qualifying Resources Re-forecast (in US$ millions)
2016-2020 • Update of Direct Contributions
281 0 -188
40 -253 • C&I Reserve: updated to reflect
67 changed estimates in expenditure
9,520
9,467 • Removal of allowance for further
-$53m contributions (now incl. in direct
Original Direct IFFIm - PCV-AMC Inv. Income C&I Reserve Allowance New contributions)
forecast Contribs incl. CEPI Proceeds / Other for Further Forecast
Contrib
2021-2025 • Figures updated for 4 June 2020
Vaccine Summit
7,837 734 0 0 -58 -7,451
• C&I Reserve: updated to reflect
changed estimates in expenditure
+$1.06bn 10,540
9,478 • Removal of allowance for further
contributions (now incl. in direct
Original Direct IFFIm - Inv. Income C&I Reserve Allowance New contributions)
forecast Contribs excl. CEPI / Other for Further Forecast
Contrib
7
*includes reduction for PCV-AMC (-$187.5m)Classified as Internal
Net Available for
Resources Expenditure
Future Investment is
-0.6% US$ 368m
2016-2020 -0.1%
9,520 9,467 9,110 9,099
303 253 343 65 65 4
300 367 513 496
530 342
665 988 1,020
665
7,469 7,750 7,544 7,515
Dec-19 Board July Re- Dec-19 Board July Re-
forecast forecast
Direct Contributions Investment Income Programmatic CEPI
IFFIm - incl CEPI Available from C&I Partnership Current decisions - July Board
8
AMC Proceeds Allowance for DC SecretariatClassified as Internal
Net Available for Future
Resources Expenditure
Investment is
2021-2025 +11.2% US$ 1.18 bn
10,540 -0.9%
9,478 125 332 9,444 9,364
413 3 413
2,209 557 557
1,299 1,362 ▪ US$1.18 billion
remain available for
future investments
7,451
▪ Revised forecast to
7,874 be presented to the
7,175 7,029 AFC in September
125 390
1,475
37
Dec-19 Board July Re- Dec-19 Board July Re-
forecast forecast
Direct Contributions Available from C&I Partnership Current Decision - July Board
9 IFFIm Allowance for DC Secretariat
Investment Income Programmatic Prov Strategic InvClassified as Internal
Net Potential Available shows that enough
resources are available for future investments
$ 368m $ 1.18bn $ 413m $ 1.590bn
2016-2020 2021-2025 September Board
Available for future
Subject to further
updates on Strategic
forecasts
and donor’s
Investments
considerations
Excludes Covax AMC Contributions & Commitments
10 Board meeting
30 July 2020Classified as Internal
Covax Facility & Covax AMC
Set up costs Additional Support
required to dedicated to
Covax
operationalize
the COVAX
Systems in place to
Facility &
track and monitor
COVAX AMC Resources &
▪ Legal fees expenditures
▪ Consultancy
▪ Surge capacity
allocated to the
Facility & Covax AMC
$ 8.4m
FOR DECISION PreFinancing
11 Board meeting
30 July 2020Classified as Internal
Decision 1: Financial Forecast
The Gavi Alliance Board:
Noted that the Audit and Finance Committee has reviewed the financial
implications of the recommendation as set out in Figures 1 of Doc 03 b
(Financial Update) to the 23 July 2020 meeting of the Audit and Finance
Committee and concluded that the recommendation could be approved by the
Gavi Alliance Board in accordance with the Programme Funding Policy
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