Forewarned is forearmed: Managing the impacts of extreme climate events - Debbie Hudson Bureau of Meteorology
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Forewarned is forearmed: Managing the impacts of extreme climate events Debbie Hudson Bureau of Meteorology
BoM Climate prediction service
Seasonal Outlooks (beyond the 7-day weather forecast)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
• Monthly and seasonal outlooks
Probability of above/below median
rainfall/Tmax/Tmin
• Forecasts of ENSO & IOD
• Northern rainfall onset
• Seasonal streamflow forecasts
• Tropical cyclone outlook
• Sea surface temperature
forecasts
New climate outlook model: ACCESS-S • Higher definition (60km instead of 250km resolution) • More accurate • Cutting edge science (UK Met Office collaboration) • More supercomputing power
The model simulates how the
atmosphere and ocean evolves
Rainfall (shaded) and MSLP (contour) Sea surface temperature
Evolution of atmosphere and ocean over the Australian region from a
single ACCESS-S forecast
Higher definition maps
• Increased grid resolution: 60km instead of 250km
• Finer detail for more localised information
POAMA 250km resolution ACCESS-S 60km resolution
Enhanced resolution for the atmosphere and land with ACCESS-S
Produces a more realistic climate
Example: Mean rainfall (mm/day) for spring (SON)
Observations ACCESS-S1 POAMA
Week 1+2
Week 2+3
Week 3+4
Month 1
Month 2
Rainfall
Month 3
Season
(0-lead)
Season
(1-mnth lead)
Week 1+2
Week 2+3
Week 3+4
Month 1
ACCESS-S1
Month 2
TMAX
Month 3
Season
(0-lead)
Season
(1-mnth lead)
POAMA
Week 1+2
Week 2+3
Forecasts of probability of above median
Week 3+4
More accurate outlooks
Average accuracy for all AUS and all times of year
Month 1
Month 2
TMIN
Month 3
Season
(0-lead)
Season
(1-mnth lead)
Improved accuracy for predicting
El Niño
Higher values
are better
Correlation skill for NINO3 outlooks initialised on 1st May
More improvements coming…
• New multi-week forecasts
Ø For next week and the week after
• A new version of ACCESS-S
Ø Performs even better for the Australian region
Week Next Coming Coming
ahead Fortnight Month SeasonA key challenge…
Understanding and
communicating probabilities
2015/16 engagement: User
comprehension is linked with user
satisfaction i.e. those that answered
comprehension questions incorrectly
were 3 times as likely to be dissatisfied
with the service
Courtesy of Beth EbertBoM Climate prediction service
Seasonal Outlooks (beyond the 7-day weather forecast)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
• Monthly and seasonal outlooks
Probability of above/below median
rainfall/Tmax/Tmin
• Forecasts of ENSO & IOD
• Northern rainfall onset
• Seasonal streamflow forecasts
• Tropical cyclone outlook
• Sea surface temperature
forecastsRural RnD4Profit Project:
Forewarned is forearmed
Forewarned is forearmed: managing the impacts of extreme
climate events
Research partners Rural RDC & other
partners
BoM
Univ. Melbourne Meat and Livestock Australia
Grains RDC
Monash Univ.
Univ. S. Queensland
SARDI
USERS Sugar Research Australia
Cotton RDC
AgriFutures Australia
DEDJTR Dairy Australia
DAFQ Wine Australia
Birchip Cropping Group Australian Pork
Managed by Meat and Livestock Australia; 17 collaborating partner organisations; 2017-20221. The foundation
Assessing user Improving the Underpinning
needs forecast system science
Research partners Rural RDC & other partners
BoM Meat and Livestock Australia
Univ. Melbourne Work package 1: Grains RDC
Monash Univ. Sugar Research Australia
User needs and Cotton RDC
Univ. S. Queensland
SARDI Forecast system AgriFutures Australia
Dairy Australia
DEDJTR development Wine Australia
DAFQ Australian Pork
Birchip Cropping GroupAssessing user needs
What kind of
extreme?
Critical times of year Critical timescales
(weeks/months/seasons)
How far in
Prolonged heavy rain in
advance do you A run of very hot nights in October is…… If I knew there
need to know? September is bad for …… were going to be more than
average extremely wet days I
could…..
I really need to know if Oct-Dec is
going to be a very wet season. Early frosts have a very
Ideally I need to know this by July. If negative impact. If I knew
I knew, then I could make decisions there was an increased
to … likelihood of a frosts more
than one week in advance, I
could….Underpinning science e.g. ENSO
Increased chance of heat extremes during El Niño
especially in Spring
Observations POAMA
SON SON
Increased chance of
an extremely hot week
Heat extreme: weekly-mean Tmax in decile 10Forecast skill: Windows of forecast
opportunity
Example: More skill in El Niño/La Niña periods
Skill for forecasting extreme heat
Skill when in Skill when ENSO is
El Niño/La Niña weak/neutral
Higher values are better
Decile 10 Tmax in JJA in weeks 2 and 3 of the forecast2. Developing and delivering
forecasts
Work package 2:
Extreme forecast
products development
and delivery
• Develop a range of heat, cold and rainfall experimental extremes forecast products from ACCESS-S
on multi-week to seasonal timescales;
• Make experimental products available on a research web server for trial and feedback;
• Deliver operational forecasts for a subset that have sufficient accuracy and utility. The products will be
of broad utility across industries (i.e. not highly tailored for a specific industry).What is an extremes forecast product? Forecasting climate extremes Averaged/accumulated over a period (e.g. week, fortnight, month, season) e.g., extremely hot month, extremely dry season Forecasting extreme weather events (beyond the 7-day forecast) Likelihood of weather events in a given period e.g., probability of heatwaves, frosts, heavy rainfall events
Forecasts
99 equally likely
outcomes/scenarios
("ensemble" of forecasts) Outlooks for multi-
week and seasonal
timescales
Forecasts
are
updated
every day The ensemble is used to
create the forecast
probabilities
e.g., if 80 of these 99 outlooks
predict above-average rainfall
for a season, then the
likelihood of a wetter than
average season for the
location is 80%Currently available product operationally is:
Probability of above median
Forecast for JFM 2019 RainfallGetting more information from the forecast:
3-category probabilities
Forecast for JFM 2019 Rainfall: Probability for
most likely categoryGetting even more information from the forecast:
Chance of being in outer deciles (e.g., very dry)
Forecast for JFM 2019 Rainfall: Chance of being in
decile 1&2
Increased likelihood of having Decile 1&2 (brown colours)
(i.e. of being amongst the driest fifth of JFM seasons
Climatological expected probability for Decile 1&2 (20%)Heat extremes example
25 - 31 December 2018
WEEK 2 FORECAST: Chance of a heatwave
(three or more consecutive days Tmean > 90th percentile)
Observed Tmean
anomaly
25 – 31 December 2018Forecast timeseries example
Observations
Loxton: Mar 2019 Tmax
Grey shading shows thresholds for
what has historically happened for that
time of year. Can see how forecast
differs from what is "usually" expected.
Grey line is the median – "average"
value for that time of year.
Forecast 95th
percentile
Forecast 75th
percentile
A summary
Forecast of the 99
median
"outlooks"
Forecast 25th
percentile
Forecast 5th
percentile3. Linking forecasts and user
decisions
Work package 3:
USERS Interfacing to Industry
decisions
Research partners Rural RDC & other
BoM partners
Univ. Melbourne Meat and Livestock Australia
Grains RDC
Monash Univ.
Sugar Research Australia
Univ. S. Queensland Cotton RDC
SARDI AgriFutures Australia
DEDJTR Dairy Australia
DAFQ Wine Australia
Australian Pork
Birchip Cropping GroupLinking forecasts and user
decisions
Courtesy of Jemma
Pearl, Birchip Cropping
Group4. Extension and training
Work Package 4:
Extension and USERS
training
Research partners Rural RDC & other
BoM partners
Univ. Melbourne Meat and Livestock Australia
Grains RDC
Monash Univ.
Sugar Research Australia
Univ. S. Queensland Cotton RDC
SARDI AgriFutures Australia
DEDJTR Dairy Australia
DAFQ Wine Australia
Australian Pork
Birchip Cropping GroupRural RnD4Profit Project:
Forewarned is forearmed
Feedback
Module 4: Adoption Adoption Module 3:
Extension and USERS Interfacing to
training Industry decisions Photo: Jennifer Metcalfe,
Econnect Communications
Adoption
Feedback Feedback
Module 2:
Extreme forecast
products development
and delivery
Feedback Feedback
Rural RDC & other
Research partners partners
BoM
Univ. Melbourne Module 1: Meat and Livestock Australia
Grains RDC
Monash Univ. User needs and Sugar Research Australia
Univ. S. Queensland
Cotton RDC
SARDI Forecast system AgriFutures Australia
DEDJTR development Dairy Australia
DAFQ Wine Australia
Birchip Cropping Group Australian PorkPartnerships with users will become increasingly
important in order to unlock the true potential and
value of multi-week and seasonal forecasts
No matter how accurate a weather
The sidewalk
forecast or climate outlook is: The sidewalk that the user wants
was built
– If it doesn’t provide information
users need
– If it isn’t issued when users are
making their critical decisions
– If it is misinterpreted
– If it cannot help make a
decision…. Canberra 2017
*The forecast has little real valueYou can also read
