Supporting decision making in the Australian water sector - Daniel Burton Customer Lead - Water Bureau of Meteorology - Innovyze
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Supporting decision making in the Australian water sector Daniel Burton Customer Lead - Water Bureau of Meteorology
Presentation overview • Understanding Bureau products • Supporting decision making now and into the coming months • Products in development
Do you understand Bureau weather forecasts?
Understanding Bureau products • What terminology is used • How does the Bureau prepare forecasts • How accurate are Bureau forecasts
Explaining Meteorological Forecast Terminology
• Nowcast
- Very short range (0-2 hours) forecast based on projecting current observations
into the future
- Can provide detailed guidance on high impact weather events
• Forecast
- Description of weather parameters (max/min temperate, precipitation etc.)
- The Bureau provides forecasts out to seven days
• Outlook
- Is not a weather forecast
- Description of averaged weather parameters expressed as a departure from
climate values for that time period (i.e., warmer, or wetter than average over a
period)
From WMO Definitions Of Meteorological Forecasting Ranges
How does the Bureau prepare forecasts?
Graphical
Observations Forecast
Editor Automated 7 day text
forecasts for 650
locations
"OCF"
Post Processor
"Official"
Multiple weather
model outputs
6 km resolution Gridded downstream
graphical forecasts applications
How accurate are our forecasts? • Tomorrow's maximum temperature forecasts are within 2 degrees 89% of the time, within 3 degrees 96% of the time • When we say it is going to be a dry day, it is dry 95% of the time • When we say it is going to rain, it rains 70% of the time • When it does rain, we predicted that it would 88% of the time
Supporting decision making • What's happening now and this week? • What's happening in the next few hours? • What conditions can we expect in the coming weeks and months? • Situational awareness and looking back
What's happening now and this week? Meteye • Helps to visualise weather observations and forecast • Brings together seven day forecasts, warning, satellite and radar imagery and near real time observations • Access a three hourly forecast for the next seven days • Find a forecast for any location in Australia • Check real-time weather conditions • http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
What's happening now and in the next few hours? Rainfields • Provides real-time quantitative precipitation estimates and forecasts based on radars, rain gauges and numerical weather prediction models • Radar estimation wont agree with a gauge because it's not a direct measurement • 60 radars and 7 multi-radar mosaics • Does not remove the need for rain gauges but may provide more accurate rainfall estimates in locations between rain gauges • Provided in netCDF format
What's happening now and in the next few hours? Rainfields provides three types of rainfall products: • Calibrated radar rainfall • Merged rain gauge and radar rainfall • Rainfall forecasts incorporating ensembles and probabilistic information Rainfields delivers over 20,000 products/hour so it's important to chose the right one for your needs
What's happening now and in the next few hours? Rainfields demonstration • Example of Rainfall Ensemble Prediction for HNV domain • Animation shows one hour of 10-min observed radar rainfall followed by 6 hours of 10-min rainfall forecasts by STEPS-NWP (one member) • ACCESS-C is used here to fill areas outside of radar coverage and support the evolution of rainfall forecasts.
What can we expect the coming weeks, months and
seasons?
• New outlook products released in August bridge gap between 7 day forecast and
seasonal outlook
• New weekly, fortnightly and three month seasonal outlooks (looking one month
further)
• Provides information for rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature
Season 2
Season 1
Month1 Month2
Weeks
3&4
Weeks
2&3 New outlook period
Week 2 Week 3
7‐day
weather
forecast
August September October NovemberWhat can we expect the coming weeks, months and
seasons?
• Weekly, fortnightly, monthly and
seasonal outlooks
• Includes:
- probability of exceeding average
rainfall and temperatures
- The likelihood of different rainfall
totals
- How much above or below
average temperatures are likely
to be
• Issued twice weekly (weekly outlooks)
and weekly (monthly outlooks) 50% chance of around 50 mm rainfall
• Available online or as gridded during December
products (NetCDF)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/Climate outlooks use case
• Many water utilities have recognised a
relationship between low soil moisture
and pipe chokes
• Blocked pipes can result in service
and compliance issues
• Climate outlooks help Yarra Valley
Water to anticipate how the climate
over the coming weeks and months
could impact its infrastructure
• YVW is starting to use this information
to build improved strategies for
resource planning and maintenance
prediction
Tree root impacting a drain (Source A1 Sewer and
Drain Services)Situational awareness and looking back
Australian Water Resources Assessment
Landscape model (AWRA-L)
• National, daily time-step, 5 km resolution
distributed water balance model
• Developed with CSIRO
• Current and historic landscape water
balance components:
- Soil moisture
- Runoff
- Deep drainage
- Precipitation
- Evapotranspiration (modelled,
FAO56, Pan, Lake, Morton areal)
• Daily, monthly and annual time step from
1911 onwards
• http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscapeSituational awareness and looking back
Water Resource Modelling
AWRA-L is used for: Flood forecasting
• Estimating antecedent soil moisture Water Resource Model validation
conditions and losses for forecasting Crop Modelling
Flood Modelling
• Runoff for estimation of overland flow Ecological modelling
in ungauged areas. Model input
Water Modelling
• Evaporation for water demand/use
modelling. Soil Moisture modelling
Fire
Irrigation
Water Resource Reporting
Farm Dams
Water Reporting
Pipe Failure
General
Water Resource Assessment
Groundwater Recharge
Evaporation from Storages
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20Situational awareness and looking back Pipe chokes vs. soil moisture Water use demand vs. evaporation
Products in development • ARWA-L enhancements
Enhancements to the AWRA-L model
Gridded output for all of Australia
• Uses the existing AWRA-L
model
• Daily output at 5x5 km
Included variables:
• Soil moisture
• ET, PET
Expected release: late 2020 • Runoff
Information to assist you with
decision making:
- For ungauged catchments
- Long term strategic planning
- Assessing climate riskEnhancements to the AWRA-L model • Register to trial the beta release, contact water@bom.gov.au
Wrap up
Wrap up What have we covered today • Understanding Bureau products • Supporting decision making now and into the coming months • Products in development Where to go for more information • Phone or email me (03) 9616 8506 daniel.burton@bom.gov.au • Email our water mailbox water@bom.gov.au and we'll make sure your question gets to the right person
Thank you Daniel Burton daniel.burton@bom.gov.au (03) 9616 8506
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