Future of devices Smartphones, AI, immersion and beyond - January 2019 gsmaintelligence.com @GSMAi
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Future of devices Smartphones, AI, immersion and beyond January 2019 gsmaintelligence.com @GSMAi © 2019 GSM Association
The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data,
more than 750 operators with over 350 companies in the broader mobile analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and
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industry itself.
Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research
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across 34 key markets, using a blend of online and face-to-face sampling
info@gsmaintelligence.com
methodologies. The survey helps drive our insights on a wide range of
device ownership and mobile internet use cases, covering everything from
household adoption of smart devices, to the number of unique mobile
subscribers and how people use the mobile internet.
CONTENTS 1 Executive summary
2 Device evolution: from personal to immersive
3 Emerging categories: where are we?
4 Competitive strategies
5 Future outlook and open questions4
Shape of the market
1
Is 5G the catalyst for a smartphone revival? 5G presents a sea-change for device OEMs because of the speed and
latency upgrades on LTE. Flagships will be released in 2019 from Samsung, Huawei, Sony and LG at least. Apple’s
entry would be most significant, although it came late to the party with LTE and may well choose 2020 instead for
5G. There is, however, a disconnect between what 5G can do and what consumers expect it to do. Over 50% expect
faster speeds but only 25% think it will bring new services. This underlines the point that for immersive reality to
take off and drive a step-change in sales growth, an iPhone moment will be required
2
Pushing the home frontier. Smartphone ubiquity (90%+ ownership in high income countries) means it remains the
focal point of the consumer internet economy. However, the range of connected devices (and therefore internet
access channels) is now greater than ever, with US and UK households owning six each on average – from TVs to
consoles to emerging categories such as smart speakers
3 More fundamentally, a 3rd wave of devices is upon us. Modern computing since 1980 has been defined by overlapping
PC and smartphone eras. While smartphones are here to stay, we are in the early stages of a 3rd era – that of AI and
immersive entertainment. Smart speakers, VR headsets and potentially glasses are the new form factors
4
Contrasting fortunes on the hype cycle. Smart speaker ownership rates have nearly doubled in high income countries
over the last 12 months to between 8–16% of households. While AI functionality is still rudimentary in the context of its
potential, consumers are drawn to easy win use cases of music and 3rd party app integrations (e.g. Uber). Speakers are
now where PCs were in the mid 1980s, leaving significant room to run. VR headset rates have flatlined or even declined,
suggesting a trough of despair driven by weak content libraries, expensive devices and awkward social presentation
5
New set of platform wars. Amazon, Apple and Google share a common vision of colonising the home via AI-enabled
speakers as a channel to their core business. Amazon = vertically integrate e-commerce and Prime. Google = future
proof Search by establishing a voice channel. Apple = extend the footprint of its services ecosystem. While this is a
long game, the fact Amazon controls well over 50% of the market is an ominous sign for competitors. In VR, it would
appear Samsung and Google have commanding positions with Gear VR and Daydream. Microsoft’s threat is longer
term but significant: if it achieves the vaunted mixed reality (MR), VR would in effect become obsolete, making
Microsoft a new leader in immersive entertainment.CONTENTS 1 Executive summary
2 Device evolution: from personal to immersive
3 Emerging categories: where are we?
4 Competitive strategies
5 Future outlook and open questions6
The smartphone is still the centre of gravity
• Smartphones have reached saturation in all but the hardest • However, the range of connected devices is now greater
to reach demographic groups in the US, Europe and advanced than ever, which is reshaping how people interact with the
Asia. Ubiquity means it remains the focal point of the digital world
consumer internet economy – with no obvious end in sight
Which devices do you own?
Germany view, 2018
100
80 88%
74%
60
51% 52%
40
20 27%
22% 20%
15%
2% 4%
7% 8%
0 Smartphone Tablet Laptop Desktop Gaming Smart TV eReader Fitness Smartwatch Connected Smart VR Headset
Console Tracker Health Speaker
Device
Smart devices Personal computing Entertainment Wearables AI and immersive
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018)7
But saturation means that growth now resides in
developing countries…
• The flipside of reaching saturation is Smartphone ownership. Emerging market youth are coming…
that replacement rates have lengthened. Advanced economies in this chart includes US, Canada, France, Australia and Japan
In the heady days of 2011–12 the average 100%
Percent of population
consumer got a new smartphone every
2 years but this has since drifted to 3.5 90%
• The removal of operator subsidies and
80%
income stagnation have played a role
but more fundamentally it is because
70%
the user experience is driven by the OS
and apps layer – both of which can be
60%
updated over the air, reducing the need
for a new device
50%
• Future growth resides in emerging
markets. 5 countries – China, India, 40%
Nigeria, Indonesia and Pakistan – will
account for 50% of the 1.5bn new 30%
mobile internet users between 2018–25
• Beyond getting devices in people’s 20%
hands, the more nuanced challenge
will be how to engage customers that 10%
are mostly young, lower income, non-
English speaking and that lack access 0%
18–24 25–34 35–54 55–64 65+
to services taken for granted in western
countries (banking, health, education) Advanced economies Indonesia Kenya Nigeria Pakistan
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018)8
…where there is an insatiable appetite
for mobile data
• Figures reported by operators in Mobile data traffic – up and away
a clutch of countries in south Asia Growth rates are for quarterly mobile data traffic per customer vs. same quarter of the previous year
+200%
suggest per customer data usage
rates are rising between 30–90% a
8
7.8
year. India is an extreme example, with
data usage tripling for the incumbent 7
for Airtel, although this is driven by
disruptive pricing from Jio 6 GB per user per month
• This type of early evidence suggests
a very strong latent demand for data
among consumers in lower income
5
countries – perhaps because mobile
phones are for many people their first4 +32%
experience of the internet
3 3.4
+32%
2.6 2.6
2 2.1
+50% +90%
1.6
1 1.0 1.0
0.7 0.5
0 Sri Lanka Philippines Bangladesh Pakistan India
(Dialog) (Globe) (Grameen) (Jazztel) (Airtel)
June 2017 June 2018
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018)9
A brief history suggests device innovation cycles
are shortening
• Modern computing can be segmented Personal Smart AI and
into three overlapping eras over the computing devices immersion?
100%
last 40 years
US household ownership (2018)
• PCs dominated for 20 years and while 90% 91%
Smartphone
ownership rates are still above 70% in
high income countries, innovation has 80% 78%
all but died out, leaving the market to Laptop
commodity makers 70%
• The iPhone is arguably the most
60%
transformative product ever, reflected 56%
in the fact smartphones reached 51% Tablet
50%
ubiquity in only 10 years Desktop computer
42%
• While smart devices are here to 40% Gaming console
stay, we are in the early stages of 34%
transitioning to a 3rd stage – that of AI 30% Smart TV
and immersion
20% Smart Speaker
16%
10% 9%
8%
VR headset
Cellular dongle
0%
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
19
20
20
Launch year of device category
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018). US only10
The home is the new frontier, particularly for AI
and immersion
• The home has for several years been Smart devices per household
seen as the next frontier of device Base: adults aged 18–64. Wearables are per person with at least one wearable. Home devices are per household with at
innovation least one smart device. Assumes an average household size of 2.5 people
6.0
5.6
• Survey numbers bear that out. The 5.6
average household in the US and 4.9
UK now has 6 smart devices. And 5.0
remember this is the average of all
households
• The TV remains the main communal 4.0
media consumption point but the
change to note is the nascent rise of
smart speakers 3.0
• Amazon launched this category with
the Echo in 2015 and while ownership
2.0
rates are still only 8–10%, they have
doubled in the last year and will
probably do so again in 2019 as prices
1.0
drop
• The harder challenge is to vertically
integrate a disparate set of home 0.0
devices onto a single platform, with US UK France
competition principally between
Smartphones Wearables (per person) Smart energy meter Home security device Connected appliance
Amazon, Google and Apple Smart TV Set-top box Entertainment devices Smart speaker
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018)CONTENTS 1 Executive summary
2 Device evolution: from personal to immersive
3 Emerging categories: where are we?
4 Competitive strategies
5 Future outlook and open questions12
Smart speakers. The quest for vertical integration
• Smart speakers have grown in • Amazon and Google’s first mover • The strategic value of smart speakers
popularity more than almost any other advantage is still reflected in their resides in access to data and AI, where
household electronics category the commercial dominance, accounting for functionality is rudimentary. Secondary
last 12 months. Results from our survey 85% of sales units worldwide questioning is weak and integration
suggest that ownership rates have with 3rd party apps (booking an Uber
nearly doubled in high income countries or checking into your flight) remains
limited. In short, this category has
significant room to run
Smart speakers on the rise across the board… …and, for the time being, its an Amazon/Google story
Percent of households Smart speaker shipments (US, UK, Germany, France, China)
0.20 Amazon
9.7
4.1
0.15 16% Google
6.7
0.4
0.10 11% Alibaba
0.5
9% 0.1
8%
Apple
0.05 6% 1.0
0.5
4% 4% 4%
Others
1% 1%
0.00 US France Germany UK Japan 0.2
1.5
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10
2017 2018 0 Q4 2016 Q4 2017
Million
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018) Source Company reports, Business Insider13
VR hardware. Stuck in the trough of despair?
VR headset ownership rates still stuck in techie territory • On average, only 6% of the population in
developed countries owns a VR headset, with
Household ownership
14%
take-up rates basically flat in the last year
• Early hype in 2015 was rooted in VR being the
12% logical next step for gaming and consumer
entertainment but a combination of weak
content libraries, expensive devices and
10%
awkward social presentation have tapered
expectations
• There is also the problem that, for gaming,
8% traditional consoles are still owned by 40%
of HHs and sufficiently high-spec that the
upgrade path to VR is not yet compelling
6%
• Google, Microsoft and Facebook are
continuing development alongside a raft
of start-ups, with patent registrations and
4% R&D activity up. The presence of supporting
technologies (5G, edge compute) will also
help
2%
• Consumer adoption is, however, unlikely to
move above 10–15% in the next year
0% Australia Canada France Germany UK Japan USA Total
2017 2018
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018)14
AR has more potential
• AR is often coupled with VR as the siblings of immersive Ecosystem of supporting technologies for AR
reality but its potential is significantly higher
• Part of this stems from a seemingly endless range of Virtual attendance 360º advertising
enterprise use cases including retail, fashion design, of sports events Ultra-light platforms
headset
automotive and aerospace. GE, Bosch and Boeing are all
Visualisation of
active in testing patient’s health
condition
• Apple has also made clear its bullish expectations in AR Mobile 5G
processors and connectivity
through the A12 bionic chip announced alongside the 5G modems
iPhone 8 in 2017 and built into subsequent releases
• Its product demos have showcased situations where
consumers superimpose real-world information through Virtual Crop data
AR
educational visualisation
iPhones and iPads. Home furniture (IKEA), airport information trips in through
(American Airlines) and children’s stories are examples historic drones
Platform Developers
scenes and APIs footage
• Smart glasses or lenses would be the holy grail form factors tools and kit
and take AR to the next level because they remove hand
involvement. Unfortunately, computing power requirements,
AR content
silicon processing and safety regulations mean that these
could be years away
Virtual fitting rooms
• The fact that Apple is interested is, in itself, a key factor that Holographic
could significantly accelerate development assistance in Virtually design and
site inspection customisation of products
Source GSMA Intelligence15
Eventual convergence to mixed reality?
• AR and VR sit on a reality continuum where the What is needed for an MR platform?
purely physical and digital worlds form each end
• At present, most of the applications developed
in immersive entertainment sit close to either
extreme (Pokemon Go, for example, is an AR
app near the physical extreme). The longer term On-device capabilities Edge cloud features Immersive Experience
development path is towards the middle estuary
ground where the physical and digital worlds are Long battery life, intensive 5G, power efficient High quality sound,
indistinguishable – so-called Mixed Reality (MR) computation capable, ultra low latency, stereoscopic display,
ergonomic design, high availability, local 6DoF video, accurate
• No devices currently have the capability to language processing, interactive content, virtual motion tracking, rich
support experiences across the spectrum. voice recognition, gesture voice assistant visual and interactive
Microsoft is the most advanced with HoloLens recognition content, context-aware
and a set of immersive devices that occlude a services
person’s view of their physical surroundings.
Glasses or lenses would be the ultimate form Where devices exist on the mixed reality spectrum
factor but there are major computing and latency Reality continuum reproduced based on original image on the Microsoft developer centre website
requirements to hit before that becomes possible
• Consumer acceptance of MR goes beyond the Mixed Reality
experience itself to how easy it is to forget they
are wearing a device at all. Ergonomic design is Windows immersive
Microsoft HoloLens today headsets today
therefore a crucial factor to get right in would-
be form factors
Mobile phones today Mobile phones today
Source GSMA Intelligence, Mixed Reality schematic based on MicrosoftCONTENTS 1 Executive summary
2 Device evolution: from personal to immersive
3 Emerging categories: where are we?
4 Competitive strategies
5 Future outlook and open questions17
Apple
• The iPhone remains the bulwark of Apple’s business, Apple device sales since the iPhone
accounting for 75% of units and 60% of revenue in Q4 Apple becomes the
2018. The fact this remains true 10 years on from launch is 2nd largest smartphone
vendor with 15% of
testament to its staying power iPod classic is global market share
discontinued,
• But as the device has peaked, the next 10 years will be more Apple to kill off
complicated and rely on new features to sustain replacement all iPods in 2017 26
10
rates. AR is top of mind, with the ecosystem already beginning 55
to scale (alongside the usual rumours of AR glasses) iPad sales peak 14
26 46 44
• Forays into new categories beyond the iPhone and iPad have iPad sales reach
focused on wearables and, more recently, smart speakers 60% of global 35 68
tablets share 71
• The company has never disclosed sales units for Apple Watch
so it is hard to gauge performance. High end prices, a dearth 58
of unique use cases and the need for a tethered link to the
iPhone confine this product line to a niche audience 43
231 212 217
• Apple is a late entrant to smart speakers, announcing Home 169
Pod in June 2017, 2 years behind Amazon’s Echo 32
150
50
• Low market share will not alarm the company given that it 125
will not compromise on quality or security even if it means a 54 7
55 72
slower time to market. The recent acquisition of SilkLabs is a
40
signal that it still has work to do in improving the AI engine 21
12
• The longer term vision is to consolidate the home in both 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
estimate
hardware (iPhone, iPad, TV and speakers) and platform (iOS
iPhone iPad iPod Other (AirPods, Watch, AppleTV, HomePod)
and Siri) but this is a highly competitive space and unlikely to
Source GSMA Intelligence, Apple reports
have one winner18
Google
• Google’s device strategy has always Google Daydream VR Google outpacing Amazon
revolved around increasing the number • Google started building a VR experience and Microsoft in number of
of channels to its core search business with mobile phones with the release of
rather than selling hardware per se. For Daydream in 2016. Daydream is a mobile 300 2013–2016
AI-related filed patents
10 years, Samsung, LG and a clutch of VR content platform intended for use
Chinese manufacturers symbiotically with a limited set of phones including the250 14
pollinated the Android ecosystem, Pixel, Galaxy S8/S9 and few others
allowing Google to successfully transition 200
43
• No new versions to the OS have been 18
to mobile with relative ease 120
released. The priority is to expand app
• The focus now is on expanding reach into support and usability of Daydream for 150
110 108
the home and immersive entertainment – Android and Chrome
a more difficult proposition 100
• Google has said a standalone
Google Home headset that would not require a tether 125
50
is ‘coming soon’ although no date 80 78
• Two-pronged strategy of integrating
the smart home and, secondly, future has been given. Google’s venture arm 0
is also backing the well-funded AR 2014 2015 2016
proofing search through its Home
start‑up Magic Leap Google Microsoft Amazon
speakers and AI powered Assistant.
Its patent portfolio in AI reinforces the
significant R&D investment it is making
AI-related acquisitions Jetpac Api.ai Banter
• The company remains a strong number
CleverSense DNNresearch Deepmind Emu Timeful Moodstocks Halli Labs
2 in sales share to Amazon but this may
be the best it gets: Google doesn’t have Park Blue Labs
Granata AIMatter
a content or e-commerce business such 2012
Vision Factory
2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
that Apple or Amazon do that naturally
Source GSMA Intelligence, CB Insights
lends itself to voice control19
Amazon
���
• Amazon has established itself as a global platform company, having built the US speaker market
underlying technologies and sufficient scale that now enables it to expand into until 9/2018
(and disrupt) different areas of the commerce market. Its capabilities also make 4% 3% Amazon
a global leader in consumer facing AI and enterprise cloud services (AWS) Google
6%
• Amazon released the Echo, its smart speaker powered by AI assistant Alexa, Apple
in 2015, marking a new era of home automation. Since then, it has increased Sonos
the Echo line-up with other smart home devices such as the Echo Dot and 27% Other
Plus (speakers), Echo Show and Spot (smart displays), and Echo Look (smart 60%
camera)
• Amazon has aggressively marketed and priced its smart speakers to gain
scale and share; profits from hardware sales are not the primary consideration.
Market share is falling with the growing competition, but Amazon remains
dominant in the US
���
• Alexa will be increasingly deployed for vocal commerce: users will be able to Global market share by vendor
order more Amazon goods through a growing list of third-party integrations, Amazon
including delivery drones 5% Google
7%
• Alexa’s platform offers software development kits (SDKs) that allow third- 9% 31%
Xiaomi
party developers to build skills for the AI assistant and other manufacturers of Alibaba
hardware to integrate the Alexa assistant into their products. Amazon is keen Baidu
13%
to build an open ecosystem that is compatible with almost anything, a key Tencent
element of its platform strategy Apple
10%
25%
• As user engagement shifts from smartphones to speakers, Amazon is ensuring
it can still sell both products and content services to its consumer base
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018), CB Insights20
Team China
• Chinese vendors have gained • Whilst dominating their home market • With new form factors such as
significant share in the global for smartphones, the greatest inroads smart speakers more of a developed
smartphone market, replicating the overseas have been in emerging market play, an unanswered question
success of Chinese manufacturers markets, particularly India and Africa is whether the Chinese OEMs can
in other sectors replicate success in smartphones in
new device categories
Chinese OEMs now take 40% of smartphone sales What isn’t made in China?
Global smartphone sales (millions)
3
Global rank
Stock exchange
equity
333 370 357
193 GDP
2
94
85
Population Ships TVs
Smartphones
572
517
417 552 526 533 1
PCs
Cars Fridges
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
Chinese (Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Lenovo, HTC) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
non-Chinese (Samsung, Apple, LG, Nokia) China as a percentage of global scale/output
Source GSMA IntelligenceCONTENTS 1 Executive summary
2 Device evolution: from personal to immersive
3 Emerging categories: where are we?
4 Competitive strategies
5 Future outlook and open questions22
Impact of 5G
• 5G presents a sea-change for device OEMs both From what you know of 5G, which, if any, of the following would
because of the speed upgrade and, crucially,
you expect 5G networks to deliver?
latency gains that bring AR and VR into play Based on 16 advanced countries
• Manufacturers have been cagey on public
announcements but the expectation is that a
raft of flagships will be released in 2019 from
54%
Samsung, Huawei, Sony and LG at least
• Apple’s entry would be the most significant of
all, although it came late to the party with LTE
and may well choose 2020 instead for 5G 41%
• Mobile operators will likely approach 5G in the
same way as LTE: a set of 3–4 flagship handsets
buttressed by a range of lower-spec models.
Subsidies are unlikely to be reintroduced, which
could slow initial take-up 25%
23% 22%
• Beyond smartphones, there is a reality gap. 20%
Despite the technical R&D and content efforts
to drive VR and AR, consumer expectations for
5G still centre on faster speeds
• To some extent this is not surprising because the
average consumer would not know what AR and Faster Improved Innovative Improved Lower service New devices
VR are. But it does underline the point that for speeds coverage new services home broadband costs (e.g. wearables,
appliances, vehicles)
immersive reality to take off, an iPhone moment
will be required Source : GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018)23
New platform wars on the horizon?
• The Apple/Google duopoly in the smartphone era has long Smartphones VR headsets Smart speakers
been entrenched. Android’s 85% overstates Google’s true Smartphone and smart speaker shares for Q1 2018. VR share for 2017
reach because of forked versions in China but the reality is
clear: attempts at a ‘3rd option’, be it Windows Phone or 10%
others, failed
22%
• As this reach has allowed Apple and Google to build huge
ecosystems – effectively digital economies – around their
4%
platforms, a natural question is whether history will repeat in
new device categories 63% 50%
• In VR, it would appear that Samsung and Google have
commanding positions at this point with Gear VR and 46%
Daydream respectively. However, Microsoft’s impact is
arguably as big or bigger. While it doesn’t manufacture VR
devices, it has opened APIs to others like Acer and Dell and is
in any case focused on the long game of achieving MR, which
would in effect make VR obsolete. Apple is a non factor (for 22%
35%
now) with HTC and Oculus (Facebook) occupying the smaller
premium segment 27%
15%
• The smart speaker market is a higher stakes game because
5%
the platform is only as good as the AI. Amazon’s position
with Echo is a worrying sign for competitors. There is a clear
strategy of vertically integrating its e-commerce and Prime Apple Google Samsung HTC Oculus Amazon
business, and it also is well ahead in 3rd party apps that work Non-Samsung Android Other
with Alexa
Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018), Strategy Analytics, Super Data Research24
A renewed life for wearables in healthcare?
• Wearables have suffered anti-hype, part of which has come from A role for wearables in preventative healthcare?
the fitness space UK view
• Jawbone and Fitbit can be credited with introducing mass market
wearables for the fitness conscious. The lid on their growth
Share of population
Sell-in opportunity?
prospects is that most of what can be done on a wearable can 58%
also be done on smartphones, which everyone owns
• However, the use of wearables to help manage health conditions
is a far less exploited space despite it being a long term financial
and operational challenge for many countries
• In the UK, King’s Fund data indicates that 58% of the over 60s
population has a chronic health condition. Chronic patients
account for 50% of doctor appointments, 64% of hospital
outpatient visits and a staggering 70% of hospital bed days
• The long term drain on health systems and funding gap to
address it continues to make the case for preventative measures. 22%
Wearable connected devices do not replace physicians but
could take on intermediate tasks such as reminding people to
take medications or provide remote readings to doctors 14%
12%
• It is not clear whether paltry ownership rates (2% in the UK from
our survey) indicates a lack of awareness or willingness to pay
2% 2%
among consumers. In either case, this is a void waiting to be
filled, with a cadre of forward thinking insurance companies like Under 40 Over 60
Chronic illness incidence Own fitness tracker Own connected health devices
Vitality beginning to use wearables as an incentive mechanism
for healthier lifestyles Source GSMA Intelligence consumer survey (2018), Kings Fund25
Two line
slide title
Authors gsmaintelligence.com @GSMAi
• Bullet Fig title
Units etc.
• Tim
Bullet
Hatt
Head of Research
Christina Patsioura
Senior Analyst, Emerging Technologies
Michael Meyer
Analyst
David George
Head of Consulting
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