FY 2020-2021 Five-Year GTR Forecast - Preliminary Presentation to BBAC 12/19/2019 - The City of Portland ...
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FY 2020-2021 Five-Year GTR Forecast Preliminary Presentation to BBAC 12/19/2019 Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 1
Forecast Overview
• 5-Year Net GTR Surplus: $25.0M
Annual GTR Revenue, Expense & Net Surplus/Deficit
in millions
• Long-term trend toward GTR deficit
$180 $170
• Revenue growth (CAGR): 1.5%/yr
$160 $152
• Program expense growth: 3.4%/yr $159
$140
$140
$120
Net GTR Balance
$100
Annual GTR Revenue
$80 Annual GTR Expense
$60
$50
$45
$40 $42
$40 $36
$25
$20
$0
FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 2Key Themes Major Challenges Outside of Bureau’s Control • Local and statewide headwinds for gas tax revenues • Upcoming PERS employer contribution increases Financial Levers at Bureau’s Disposal • Opportunity to capture existing fee policy and set expectations for future • Long-term expenditure efficiency targets Unfunded Liabilities • Insufficient funding to address state of good repair backlog (pavement, streetcar, etc.) • Undefined and potential liabilities (Portland Harbor remediation, SW Corridor Local Match, Youth Pass) Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 3
Comparison to Prior Forecast (Adopted Budget)
Net GTR Surplus/Deficit: Current Forecast vs Adopted Budget
(in millions)
$60
53
50
$50
45 44
42
40
$40
35 36
$30
25
24
$20
$10 8
$0
FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25
(3)
($10)
Net GTR - Current Net GTR - Adopted
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 4Revenue Changes (in millions)
Expense 5-Year Notes
Impact
State Highway Fund ($ 12.3) Updated ODOT forecast
On-Street Parking $ 14.3 Revenue baseline, CEID/NW expansion, new districts
Parking Citations ($ 0.4) FY 19-20 vacancies
Reserved Parking $ 15.5 Volume baseline, rate assumptions
Permit Parking $ 1.9 Volume baseline, rate assumptions
Parking Facilities Fund Transfer $ 7.0 Includes $2M for Naito & Davis expense
Interest on Investments $ 4.4 Using OMF interest rate forecast
Total $ 30.4
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 5State Highway Fund Revenue (Gas Taxes)
Forecast continues to include conditional Cumulative State Highway Fund Variance vs Prior Forecast
HB 2017 increases (next: January 2020) ($M)
FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25
ODOT forecast update: $12.4M lower over $0
5 years ($0.8)
($2) ($1.7) ($1.6)
Impacted by light vehicle sales, fuel sales, ($2.5) ($2.4)
($2.8)
in-state migration and trucking activity ($4) ($3.2)
($4.1)
Includes impact from Multnomah County ($6)
apportionment ($3.4M) Cumulative Loss ($6.4)
($8) Annual Loss
• For every vehicle removed from the
road, City loses $45 in annual gas tax ($10) ($9.3)
apportionment
($12)
($12.4)
($14)
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 6On-Street Parking
Changes from Previous Forecast Risks/Opportunities (Not in Forecast)
Completed Changes • Performance-based parking management –
anticipated rate changes (July 2020)
• Re-baselined revenue to FY 18-19
• Lloyd event district (Convention
• Added new meters installed in FY 19-20
Center/Moda Center)
(+248 in CEID/NW)
• Further expansion (up to 100 meters/year
Anticipated Changes
under contract amendment)
• Modest expansion of parking meters
(+50/year through FY 24-25)
• CEID infill
• N Mississippi/Vancouver/Williams
• SE Division pilot
• Revenue from new meters offset by higher
NMR distributions (fund-level expense)
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 7Reserved Parking (Temporary Street Use Permitting)
Prior Forecasts Current Forecast
• Built around total revenue only • Independently forecasts volume and rates
for each permit type
• Lagged behind growth in annual revenue
• $1M to $6M+ in 5 years • Baselines against recent volume trends
and rate changes
• Regression to “historical levels” –
revenue, not volume • Discounted from FY 18-19/19-20
volumes
• Minimal distinction between four permit • Updated unit pricing
types and underlying demand
• More conservative volume assumption for
Parking Operations Fee (linked to building
permits)
• Current policy of building CPI increases
into rates is incorporated into the
forecast
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 8Parking Permits
Changes from Previous Forecast Risks/Opportunities (Not in Forecast)
• Re-baselined volumes/revenues against FY • Additional APPP zones associated with
18-19 actuals (previously FY 17-18) new meter districts (North Portland,
Division)
• Virtually eliminated carshare permit
revenues (Car2go, ReachNow)
• Update rate assumptions to reflect
existing policy for annual rate-setting
process
• Capture inflationary increases in fees
• Inflationary (~3%) rate increases
incorporated for APPP and special permits
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 9Other Revenues
Parking Facilities Fund Interest Income
• Increase in net transfer assumptions • First forecast to incorporate interest
earnings
• Earlier transfer commencement
• OMF interest rates
• Additional $2M transfer for Naito &
Davis improvements (no net impact) • Interest only calculated on balancing
reserve – no other GTR balances
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 10Incremental Expenditures (in millions)
Expense 5-Year Notes
Impact
Parking Enforcement Move $ 3.5 Tenant improvements & rent
Fall BMP Additions $ 1.0 4 FTEs / 1 vehicle
Parking O&M, Expansion, Net Revenue Sharing $ 6.5 Flowbird amendment, new meter installation, O&M, 51%
share for NMR districts
Streetcar SGR $ 1.3 Near-term SGR projects on oldest vehicles
CREEC Plan Update ($ 4.4) Savings largely due to zeroing out double-win projects
Sellwood Provision ($ 1.8) Funds set aside in Fall BMP
Portland Harbor $ 2.9 Remediation design only
Miscellaneous Adjustments & Inflation ($ 0.8)
1% Efficiency Target ($ 5.0) Target adjustment in FY 19-20 only
Total $ 3.2
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 11Inflationary Impacts: 1% Efficiency Target Scenario
• Annual “CAL -1%” target for GTR $6
expenditures in FY 19-20
• Efficiency in FY 20-21 alone yields $5.0M $5
in 5-year savings
$4
$3
$2
$1
$-
FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25
Cumulative Savings
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 12Deficit Reduction Options
Scenario 5-Year Notes
Balance
Baseline $ 16.9 No changes to fees; no additional meters
Proposed Forecast $ 25.0 Includes inflationary fee adjustments
+ 1% Expense Efficiency Target OR $ 36.9 Annual application of 1% efficiency target
+ Parking Meter 20-Cent Biennial Increase OR $ 47.5 Effective increase in each district
+ Parking Meter 20-Cent Annual Increase $ 61.7 Effective increase in each district
70
Net GTR Balance
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25
Baseline Proposed Forecast 1% Expense Efficiency Target Parking Meter 20-Cent Biennial Increase Parking Meter 20-Cent Annual Increase
Portlandoregon.gov/transportation 13You can also read
