FY19 Results Ocado Group plc

 
 
FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
Ocado Group plc
FY19 Results
11th February 2020

                     1
FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
The Chairman’s
        Overview
        Lord Rose

                                              2
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FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
Forward-looking statements
       DISCLAIMER

       This presentation contains oral and written statements that are or may be “forward-looking statements” with respect to certain of Ocado’s plans and its current goals and
       expectations relating to its future financial condition, performance and results. These forward-looking statements are usually identified by words such as ‘anticipate’, ‘target’,
       ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘goal’, ‘believe’ or other words of similar meaning. By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they
       are based on current expectations and assumptions but relate to future events and circumstances which may be beyond Ocado’s control. There are important factors that could
       cause Ocado’s actual financial condition, performance and results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including, among
       other things, UK domestic and global political, social, economic and business conditions, market-related risks such as fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates, the policies
       and actions of regulatory authorities, the impact of competition, the possible effects of inflation or deflation, variations in commodity prices and other costs, the ability of Ocado to
       manage supply chain sources and its offering to customers, the effect of any acquisitions by Ocado, combinations within relevant industries and the impact of changes to tax and
       other legislation in the jurisdictions in which Ocado and its affiliates operate. Further details of certain risks and uncertainties are set out in our Annual Report for 2019 which can
       be found at www.ocadogroup.com. Ocado expressly disclaims any undertaking or obligation to update the forward-looking statements made in this presentation or any other
       forward-looking statements we may make except as required by law. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements which
       are current only as of the date on which such statements are made.

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FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
Introduction
        Tim Steiner
        CEO

                                              4
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FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
“We are pleased to report results which show strong momentum in the
                    business. Although statutory results reflected a combination of factors,
                including the impact of the Andover fire, the underlying performance of Ocado
                 Retail and the successful growth of Ocado Solutions were very encouraging.

                Our progress over the last twelve months, which includes signing our eighth
                   and ninth Solutions clients, Coles in Australia and Aeon in Japan, and
               successfully maintaining strong growth post-Andover, has demonstrated many
               of Ocado Group’s most important characteristics: resilience, innovation, focus
                and execution. It is these qualities that will enable us to continue to develop
                the Ocado Smart Platform to meet the evolving needs of our partners at the
                                     cutting edge of online grocery retail.”

                                              Tim Steiner, CEO
                                                                                             5
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FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
Financial Review
        Duncan Tatton-Brown
        CFO

                                              6   10
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FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
Financial Summary

                                                                                                             FY 2019                                       FY 2018                                    Var
                                                                                          £m             Pre-exceptionals                                                                             (%)

                                                             Group Revenue                                         1,756.6                                  1,598.8                                    9.9
                                                               Group EBITDA                                            43.3                                    59.5                                 (27.2)

                                       Depreciation, amortisation,                                                  (136.1)                                  (91.4)
                                                      impairment

                                                                        Net Interest                                 (27.6)                                  (12.5)

                                                             Loss before tax                                        (120.4)                                  (44.4)

1.   Revenue is online sales (net of returns) including charges for delivery but excluding relevant vouchers/offers and value added tax. The recharge of costs to our UK Solutions clients and International Solutions clients are also included in
     revenue with the exception of recharges to Ocado Retail which are eliminated on consolidation                                                                                                                                          7
2.   EBITDA excludes exceptional items. Group EBITDA in 2019 includes the EBITDA impact of IFRS 16 of £25.4m
                                                                                                                                                                                                          ©2020 Ocado Group plc. All rights reserved.
FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
Reviewing exceptionals impact
                                          Exceptionals
                                       £m   Impact
 Loss before tax pre exceptionals FY 2019     (120.4)

                            Andover CFC       (111.8)    ●   Write off of Andover CFC tangible assets, inventory and
                                                             additional operating costs
                 Insurance reimbursement       23.8      ●   Insurance income recognised out of £74m received in the
                                                             period
                        Disposal of Fabled     (1.1)

                   Joint Venture with M&S      (3.4)

                           Litigation costs    (1.3)     ●   proceedings against T0day and others for IP theft

                                    Other      (0.3)

Loss before tax post exceptionals FY 2019     (214.5)

                                                                                                                             8
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FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
Segmental Summary

                                                                                Revenue1                                 EBITDA2

                                                                                                                                     Var
                                                                                                     FY 2019   FY 2019   FY 2018
                                                                                              Var                                     %
                                                                FY 2019            FY 2018             Post      Pre
                                                                                              %                                      Pre
                                                   £m                                                IFRS16    IFRS16
                                                                                                                                   IFRS16
                                              Retail             1,617.5            1,466.6   10.3    35.0      20.2       30.1    (33.0)

                                UK Solutions &                    583.2             541.1     7.8     84.8      74.2       67.5     10.0
                                     Logistics

                 International Solutions                            0.5               0.5      -      (62.1)    (62.1)    (28.4)     -

                                              Other                 9.8               9.2     6.5     (14.4)    (14.4)     (9.7)     -

                                               Total             1,756.6            1,598.8   9.9     43.3      17.9       59.5    (69.9)

    1.   Group totals include eliminations
    2.   EBITDA excludes exceptional items and excludes the impact of IFRS 16

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FY19 Results Ocado Group plc
Cash fees show progress building International Solutions

                                                                                   Var
                                                              FY 2019    FY 2018
                                                                                   %

                                                   Revenue      0.5        0.5      -

                                                   EBITDA      (62.1)     (28.4)    -

                                              Fees invoiced    81.4        58.8    38.4

                    ● Fees invoiced from international partners up significantly
                    ● Immaterial revenue recognised under IFRS 15
                    ● Cumulative unrecognised cash fees of around £140m of by end of 2019
                    ● Significant growth in costs to support client requirements

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UK Solutions: progress in underlying efficiencies

                                                                              Var
                                                        FY 2019   FY 2018
                                                                               %
                                              Revenue    583.2     541.1      7.8

                                              EBITDA*    74.2      67.5       10.0

           ● Revenue growth lower due to part year of Morrisons “holiday”
           ● Improvement in underlying efficiencies:
                    ○ DPV1 up to 196, approaching new target of 200
                    ○ Mature UPH improved to 168, with Erith UPH now regularly above Hatfield
           ● Full year of fixed costs at Erith
           ● Significant progress in engineering costs; average cost per order down by a third across the
                  year, with the new generation robot to come
                  * Pre-IFRS16 impact
                  1. DPV is for Ocado Retail only                                                           11
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Ocado Retail: growth to bring improving efficiencies

                   10.3% growth in active                                                        With growth in orders coming                                                 Which will drive material CFC
              customers drives order volumes                                                   through new generation facilities                                           efficiency increases (UPH) at scale

                                                        795k                                                                        325k                                                                        200+
                          721k                                                                         294k
                                                                                                                                       Erith >70k OPW                                     168

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Robotic
                                                             +10.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    picking to
                                                            growth in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       bring
                                                            big basket
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    efficiency
                                                               order
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      gains
                                                             volumes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   beyond this
                                                                                                                                             Mature CFCs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      target
                                                                                                                                             Erith CFC
                                                                                                                                             Andover CFC

                          2018                         2019                                            2018                         2019                                            2019                      Erith target
                                                                                                                                                                                 Mature CFCs                  at maturity

 Note: Chart detailing order volumes growth is shown on a full year basis. The Andover fire occurred 6th February 2019. As a result, some of the capacity growth achieved in 2019 occurred before this date
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 12
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Wastage: technology drives continuous operational improvement

                  Wastage1 is a huge operational                                            OSP enables market
                 challenge for the grocery industry                                        leading performance...           ...and is still improving

                                                         2.0-3.0%                          unprecedented accuracy,
                                                                                           efficiency and resilience
                           Hurdles                                                                                                 impact of:
                                                                                                      Scale
                                                                                                                               Improved AI and ML
                       Forecasting                                                         Better predictive capabilities       driven forecasting
                     Inventory supply                                                         Perfect FIFO system
                    Customer demand                                                        Strong visibility of customer
                                                                                                    behaviour
                       Inventory
                      management                                                                       0.8%
                      Imperfect FIFO
                                                                                                                                     0.4%
                          Storage
                     Incorrect method
                      or extended time
                                                         Industry                                     2018                           2019
                                                      average range                                Ocado Retail                   Ocado Retail

                                                                                                                                                                        13
1. Food items not sold as a % of sales Food that goes to landfill is only 0.02% of sales
                                                                                                                                          ©2020 Ocado Group plc. All rights reserved.
Ocado Retail performance
                                                                     20191,2                 20181,2
                                                                                                                         Var
                                                                    (% Retail               (% Retail
                                                                                                                         (%)
                                                                    Revenue)                Revenue)

                                          Gross margin                  32.9                     33.0                   (0.1)

               Trunking and delivery costs                             (12.2)                   (12.4)                   0.2                            Continued underlying progress,
                                                                                                                                                        fixed costs of Erith
                                               CFC costs                (8.9)                    (8.4)                  (0.5)

                          Other operating costs                         (0.6)                    (0.7)                  (0.0)                           Increased marketing costs following
                                                                                                                                                        Andover fire and with offline trial
                                     Marketing costs                    (1.3)                    (0.9)                  (0.4)

                                                    Fees                (5.1)                    (5.0)                  (0.1)                           Fees paid to Ocado Group for the
                                                                                                                                                        OSP and logistics solutions to
                     Operating contribution                              4.8                      5.6                   (0.8)                           operate online offer

                                              Admin costs               (3.5)                    (3.5)                   0.0

                                                 EBITDA                  1.3                      2.1                   (0.8)
       1. Excluding exceptionals and pre-IFRS16.
       2. The costs of Ocado Retail’s operation in 2018, and in 2019 prior to the formation of the joint venture with M&S, have been allocated between the Retail Segment and UK & Logistics segment in order to be
       broadly comparable to the current contractual arrangements now in place
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 14
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Ocado Retail: considerations versus other partners
                                                                 20191,2
                                                        P&L (% Retail Revenue) Consideration v. client P&L

                                              Gross margin                      32.9                    Includes Waitrose sourcing fee and without scale advantages

                   Trunking and delivery costs                                 (12.2)

                                                CFC costs                       (8.9)                   Lower efficiency due to legacy assets

                              Other operating costs                             (0.6)

                                         Marketing costs                        (1.3)                   Includes impact of Andover fire and without benefit of existing brand

                                                       Fees                     (5.1)                   Includes 3PL fees but lower OSP fee reflecting lower efficiency assets

                        Operating contribution                                   4.8

                                               Admin costs                      (3.5)                   Higher admin fees due to set up and smaller scale

                                                  EBITDA                         1.3

                                               Client business with higher EBITDA margin at scale and low capital costs
    1. Excluding exceptionals
    2. The costs of Ocado Retail’s operation in 2019 prior to the formation of the joint venture with M&S, have been allocated between the Retail Segment and UK & Logistics segment in order to be broadly comparable to
    the current contractual arrangements now in place.                                                                                                                                                          15
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Group net cash flow development
          £m
                                              FY18 Cash position          411

                                                          EBITDA                            43

         Strong operating                         Working Capital                             50
         cash flow offset
                                              Insurance proceeds                                   74            ●     proceeds received to date
          by settlement
              of GIP                               GIP settlement                                  (80)          ●     GIP cash settlement offset in
                                                                                                                       part by share sales
                                          Finance costs + other                              (36)                ●     Majority finance costs including
                                                                                                                       interest element of IFRS 16
                                                                                                                                                                 Capex split1
                                               M&S deal proceeds                                                 558
                                                                                                                                                                         104
          Proceeds from                                    Capex1                                                (260)
          M&S deal and                                                                                                                                           71
           convertible                         Finance obligations                                        (65)                                             47
                                                                                                                                                                                  38
         support strong
        funding position                              Share sales                                         60
            for future                                                                                    (4)
                                                             Other                                                                                         UK     Int. Platform Other
             growth
                                                                                                                             ● £600m convertible bond     CFCs   CFCs    Dev
                                              FY19 Cash position          751                             1351                 issuance post year end

  1. Variance is the difference between accrued capital expenditure and cash capital expenditure                                                                                 16
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Outlook for 2020

                     ● Revenue growth:
                               ○ Retail 10‐15%
                               ○ UK Solutions & Logistics below Retail reflecting full year impact of Morrisons’
                                 “holiday” from Erith
                               ○ International Solutions expected to be  40% growth

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Outlook for 2020 (continued)
               ● EBITDA:
                         ○ Retail above revenue growth, reflecting improved operating margins as Erith scales
                         ○ UK Solutions and Logistics to decline due to Morrisons’ “holiday” from Erith, with insurance
                           benefits recorded in exceptionals
                         ○ International solutions to decline due to continued investment in build of the business and
                           increased support costs with launch of initial CFCs
               ● Continued insurance receipts
                         ○ Partly funds UK CFCs
                         ○ Both rebuild and business interruption recognised as exceptional income
               ● Capex forecast £600m
                         ○ International CFCs - £225m
                         ○ UK CFCs - £225m; Andover (c.40% of total) to be funded from insurance proceeds
                         ○ Development and other - £150m
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Financial Review
        Duncan Tatton-Brown
        CFO

                                              19   10
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Groupe Casino: Fleury-Mérogis, France
                                                                               Propose this picture as something
                                                                                 simulation related - visual way to remind
                                                                                 people of the importance of the software
                                                                                 element of the platform

     Building for
     tomorrow, at pace                                                              Sobeys: Vaughan, Ontario, Canada

        Tim Steiner
        CEO

                                                                                                                   20
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Four key elements to the Ocado story in 2020

                       1. Developing the Ocado Smart Platform
                       2. Managing greater velocity in the business
                       3. Enhancing the customer experience at Ocado Retail
                       4. Creating the future, today: transformative innovation in the pipeline

                                                                                                  21
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1         OSP: reliably providing the best customer outcomes...

                                      Range                                      Service                                   Ease of Use                Price
                                  58,000 SKUs                             95% of orders                                Order through app,     Flexibility to price our
                                                                         delivered on time                              website, and on          range so that we
                                8 products1 in
                                                                                                                         chosen device         offer the most value
                               average basket                          99% order accuracy
                                                                                                                                                  for customers
                                only at Ocado                                                                            Always improving

                                                                                  A market leading customer offer

1. Meaning any third party branded product that cannot be found elsewhere, including entire brands or different versions of a given product
                                                                                                                                                                         22
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1         ...while producing the best economics
               Centralised fulfilment has           That drive economic              Typical micro      Leveraged in
              fundamental characteristics                 benefits                 fulfilment centre   our Zoom model

            1. Large scale, centralised            Margin benefit (long tail)
            operations
                                                                       Inbound
                                                    Improved
                                                                       Picking
                                                   efficiencies
                                                                        Waste

            2. Reduced supply chain               Minimal supply chain cost

            3. Use of own, purpose-built         Flexibility to pursue iterative
            technology and IP                    and step change innovation              ?
                         Operating cost result         Best in channel             Materially higher   Slightly higher

                                                                                                                     23
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1         The last mile

                                                                             ●   Strategic spoke network enables improved last mile
                                              Scaled, centralised                efficiency, including disbenefit of longer stem time
                            1                                                ●   We estimate that central planning brings an
                                              planning drives benefits
                                                                                 operating benefit of around 0.5% of sales

                                                                             ●   The theoretical ‘gain’ to be made from closer start
                                              Trunking is a small part
                            2                                                    location to customer
                                              of delivery expense            ●   Trunking costs 1.2% of sales for Ocado Retail

                                                                             ●   A store can service a limited amount of online sales
                                              Operating click & collect is   ●   Needs staff to operate; more required as scales
                            3                                                ●
                                              not ‘free’ for a retailer          We estimate click and collect could cost 3-4%
                                                                                 of sales to operate

              The benefit of proximity alone is minimal in the context of the operational benefits of the CFC model
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1         The OSP ecosystem

                             An illustrative example                                                                            size
                                                                         Key    Module             Primary mission
                                                                                                                                (sq ft)
                                                       immediacy
                                                       same day                 Standard      Full basket shop; large direct
                           1                                        1                                                          200k+
                                                       next day                    CFC           and spoked catchment
                                                  2
                                                                                             Full grocery shop; shorter lead
                                                                                  Mini
                                                                    2                          times or to connect lower       50-160k
                                                                                  CFC
                                              3                                                 density areas to network

                                                  2                 3             MFC                  Immediacy                5-25k

                                                          4
                                                                                Store pick
             Work underway to leverage the                          4                        Best fulfilment in remote areas     n/a
                                                                                software
          ecosystem to reduce cost even further

                        OSP has the flexibility to develop bespoke networks to serve the unique needs of each market
                                                                                                                                25
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1         Ocado Zoom: next steps in immediacy

                                                  FY19                           Ongoing                    Future

                                          The consumer trial               Proving the model           Roll out with OSP

                                                                             Install our solution         Micro fulfilment
                                         Validated real market
                                       opportunity in immediacy             Focus on operational         solution to serve
                                                                            efficiencies e.g. waste    immediacy missions
                                           Increased confidence                                         in markets globally
                                          we can deliver the best
                                                                          Explore options to further
                                           offer and economics                                         Continue to evolve
                                                                            optimise technology

                                                                    Working on plans for second site
                                                                                                                              26
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1         Exploring the benefits of being a ‘member of the club’

                                                                                                             1. Increased innovation
                     4. Future optionality                                                                    as Ocado Group scales,
                                                                                                              with increased resources
                                                                                                              and footprint

                             3. Global view                                                                  2.   Share learnings
           of consumer trends to keep
        ahead of peers in local markets                                                                      Quarterly meetings to discuss
                                                                                                             build, launch and scaling in
                                                                                                             home markets

                                              A collaborative and future-focused network for forward-looking retailers
                                                                                                                                     27
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2         Managing greater velocity in the business

                                              Continued growth of         Launch of global             Strong funding                FY20+
                                                 technology and         systems; HR, finance,             position
                                                support services        product management         for commitments and
                                                                                                    future opportunities
                                                      +350               Internal restructure to
                                               technology colleagues                                      +£600m                     FY19
                                                                         mission-focused teams
                                                                                                       convertible bond
                                               London development          Upgrading support
                                                  centre opened            teams and systems
                                                                                                          +£558m
                                                                                                          M&S deal
                                              New corporate website         US office opened

                          A global team of top
                                                                       Business transformation               Financial flexibility
                           technology talent

                           First two international CFCs to open in 1H20, with over 30 operational in the next few years
                                                                                                                                        28
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2   First CFCs opening - creating a template for execution

                   Pre-launch                               Launch and Growth
                    Preparation                          Go-live and ramp according to
                  responsibilities                        each partner’s strategic plan

                      People
                 Recruit and train                      Roll out and drive proposition
    Partner     (drivers, CFC staff)                    phasing, marketing, pricing, range
                  Complete site

                     Software               Project management           Relationship management
              Development and testing       assist on early execution    share feedback, refine, grow
                     Hardware                              ----------------------------
               Installation and testing      Support: online retail expertise, technical service
                      People                              24/7 on the ground and remote
                 Recruit and train                      Collaboration and innovation
                 (PMs, engineers)           Leveraging shared learnings for all current and future sites

              Enabling our partners to grow on their own terms, in and across markets
                                                                                                           29
3         Enhancing the customer experience at Ocado Retail
                                                     And together, we will improve
                                                    the customer offer even further

                                                   1. Food innovation with
                                                   sourcing at scale
                                                   2. Working on                                Creating new
            We are well                            integrated CRM                                                     To grow faster
           placed to lead                                                                       opportunities
                                                                                                                         Current
                                                                                                 More data and
             Fastest growing                                                                                           geographies
                                                    1.Develop                                   insights to act on
              grocer in UK                                                                                             and missions
                                                    commercial and
                                                    marketing abilities                         Unparalleled offer
              Award-winning                                                                                           New geographies
               proposition                          2.strengthening GM                           More missions
                                                                                                                       New missions
                                                                                                    served
                                                    1.Leading fulfilment operations with
                                                    continuous technology upgrades
                                                    2.New, profitable, immediacy and same
                                                    day models

                                              Preparing for faster growth after near term capacity constraints ease
                                                                                                                                 30
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4         Creating the future, today
                                                                              Pursuing constant
                                                                                 innovation
                                                                                                                           Vertical farming
                        Robotic picking
                                                                                    In the Core
                ●     picking is c.50% of                                        Further increasing the
                      CFC labour cost                                          competitive advantage that
                ●     Aspire to equal                                            OSP drives in grocery
                      performance of
                      human for portion of                                            Ventures
                                                                                                                                 Automated
                      the range by FY20                                       A growing portfolio, leveraging
                                                                                                                                 meal prep
                                                                               our technological know-how
                                                                              and participating in innovation
                                                                                   in other adjacencies
                                                                                                                         3D printing

                                              Parallel streams of innovation creating future value for the medium to long term
                                                                                                                                       31
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Conclusions

                       ● OSP is a flexible model, with leading economics, that will help our partners
                               to win in online grocery across all missions and markets
                       ● The model is always evolving and improving
                       ● We are ready to work at even higher velocity
                       ● Ocado Retail is poised for even faster growth in the UK
                       ● We are innovating to drive future value, in grocery and beyond

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Q&A

                                              33
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Appendix

           34
Cash Position

                                                                                      2019 (£m)

                                              Cash and cash equivalents FY18            411

                                              Net cash flow                             (218)

                                              Proceeds from creation of JV with M&S     558

                                              Cash and cash equivalents                 751

                                              Existing undrawn RCF                      100

                                              Total headroom                            851

                              >£1.4bn in total headroom inclusive of £600m convertible bond issued after year end

                                                                                                                    35
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Capital expenditure1

                                                                                      FY 2019 (£m)   FY 2018 (£m)

                    Mature CFCs                                                            5              6

                    New CFCs                                                              42             80

                    International CFCs                                                    71             11

                    Delivery                                                              17             22

                    Technology development                                                71             55

                    Fulfilment development                                                33             21

                    Other                                                                 21             18

                    Total                                                                 260            213

    1. Capex excludes assets leased from MHE JV Co under finance lease arrangements                                 36
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Impact of IFRS 16 on FY19

                                       IFRS 16 Impact                              FY 2019 (£m)

                                       Ocado Retail                                    14.8

                                       UK Solutions & Logistics                        10.6

                                       International Solutions                           -

                                       Other                                             -

                                       EBITDA                                          25.4

                                       Depreciation, amortisation and impairment      (19.8)

                                       Net Finance Costs                              (14.9)

                                       Total                                           (9.3)

                                                                                                  37
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