BEIRUT EXPLOSION IMPACT ASSESSMENT - SEPTEMBER 10TH, 2020 - PWC
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Beirut explosion impact assessment September 10th, 2020
Introductory note
Strategy&’s impact assessment status update #1 published on August 19th, 2020 used publicly available information
from international and national organizations and interviews with sector experts.
Since then, the Strategy& team has developed a detailed impact assessment tool based on:
Geo-spatial data analysis that incorporated blast
radius and damage data from around 60 city districts 1
Expert interviews from the various sectors to
Google maps data 3 2
validate the assumptions and the cost estimates
Other data sources and analysis, such as income level
4 distribution by district, level of damage, revenues per sector
and company size
The final report includes the methodology for deriving the assessment for each sector, and the accordingly updated results. The assessment
excludes the cost of indirect impacts (e.g., multiplier effect, supply chain disruptions, exports) and public infrastructure damage (e.g., port
infrastructure, electrical grid, and water supply)
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 2
Strategy&’s impact assessment – objectives
Quantify the infrastructure, social and Identify the funding requirements versus
economic effects of the Beirut explosion the pledges made by sector (housing, food,
by district1 within a 4.1km radius of the healthcare, education, businesses and
explosion culture) highlighting funding gaps
Raise awareness on the sources of
Provide a consolidated view of the impact
donations pledged per sector to reduce
of the explosion on housing, food,
duplication in the mobilization of
healthcare, education, businesses and
resources
culture by district1
1) Where data is available
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 3Table of contents
3.1 HOUSING
01 KEY FINDINGS 3.2 SECURITY
3.3 HEALTHCARE
02 OVERVIEW OF APPROACH
3.4 EDUCATION
03 SECTOR ASSESSMENTS 3.5 BUSINESSES
3.6 CULTURE
Strategy& 4Key findings Strategy& 5
Directional
Summary of the infrastructure impact
Total
US$ ~3.115 Billion
(excludes public infrastructure damages)
HOUSING HEALTHCARE EDUCATION BUSINESSES CULTURE
10,610 buildings with 17 damaged hospitals 120 damaged schools 26,560 businesses with 8 historical
minimal damage of which 4 severely damaged low level of damage areas
(122,890 households)
2,570 buildings with 16 damaged primary 20 damaged TVETs3 3,870 businesses with 480 heritage buildings
moderate damage healthcare centers medium level of damage
(28,980 households)
240 buildings with severe 505 businesses with 160 additional buildings
damage 8 damaged universities high level of damage with special features
(2,310 households)
US$ ~1,8301 Million US$ ~752 Million US$ ~60 Million US$ ~865 Million US$ ~285 Million
financial requirements financial requirements financial requirements financial requirements financial requirements
1) Funding required could be less as some affected households can potentially afford to pay for the reconstruction damage independently
2) Upper end of funding; funding has been estimated for the 7 most affected hospitals and 16 primary healthcare centers (PHCs)
3) Technical and Vocational Education and Training
Strategy& Note: Public infrastructure (e.g., port, grain silos, electricity grids, roads, telecom towers) damages were not covered in the analysis 6Directional
Summary of the social impact
Total
US$ ~555 Million
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
TEMPORARY HOUSING
~31,000 uninhabitable houses and ~13,000
households in need of shelter
Funding requirement of
US$ ~30 Million for up to 18 months SCHOOLING
~67,000 students impacted due to schools and
TVETs damages
FOOD ASSISTANCE
~172,000 individuals in urgent need and
~135,000 in moderate need of food assistance
Funding requirement of JOBS AND LIVELIHOOD1
US$ ~215 Million for 12 months ~130,0002 jobs directly affected
US$ ~230 Million
TREATMENT OF PATIENTS of estimated loss of salaries
~6,500 patients treated for physical injuries
~145,000 patients need mental health support
Funding requirement of
US ~80 Million
1) Excludes jobs in the education (nurseries, schools, TVETs and universities) and health (hospitals and medical centers) sectors
2) Jobs affected include temporary and permanent loss. The analysis excludes supply chain and multiplier impact
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 7Directional
Summary of the economic impact
Total
US$ ~920 Million
(excludes indirect economic impacts)
REVENUES1 LOST BY SECTOR – within one from the explosion
(in US$ Million, data from within a 4.1 km radius of the explosion) Micro-businesses with unregistered
business locations were not
accounted for in the assessment
due to limited data
6%
SHOPPING
9%
NON-
CONSUMER2
EDUCATION 38%
TOTAL OF LEISURE
11%
US$ ~920
FOOD AND
DRINK Million
LODGING
SERVICES
16%
OTHERS3
17%
HEALTHCARE
1) Revenues directly affected excluding imports / exports and multipliers impact and impact on tourism
2) Banks, corporate offices and embassies
3) Uncategorized small businesses such as computer shops, beauty salons, art studios
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 8Directional
Estimated financial requirements vs. announced pledges
TOTAL FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS
(US$ Million, Infrastructure and Social Costs)
Housing Culture Food security
Businesses Healthcare Education
4.1km radius 4.1km radius
60 (2%)
1,860 1,095 285 155 215
(51%) (30%) (8%) (4%) (6%)
3,670
Includes reconstruction costs of damaged households and provision costs for Includes repair costs of damaged business across Includes repair
temporary housing 7 sectors as well as salaries at risks covering a costs of damaged Includes food
period of one year historical buildings assistance for
people in need
6% 8% Funding Gap of Includes repair costs
52% 16% 9% 620 Includes
of damaged
8% 1% US$ ~3 billion healthcare facilities
repair costs
for damaged
and provision of
schools and
services for physical
universities
and mental health
care
TOTAL ANNOUNCED PLEDGES BY FUNDING SOURCE
(US$ Million)
Others1 Crowdfunding Campaigns - Public Foreign Aid - Countries Foreign Aid - International Summit
Corporates International Organizations Bilateral Foreign Aid
1) Includes estimations for undisclosed funding
Note: Micro-businesses with unregistered locations were not accounted for in the assessment due to limited availability of data
Strategy& Source: Impact Lebanon, Strategy& analysis 9Directional
Estimated financial requirements vs. announced pledges by
type of need (US$ Million) Note: Figures below exclude US$ ~325
million in summit commitments which have
not been allocated to the sectors yet
BUSINESSES CULTURE EDUCATION HOUSING FOOD HEALTHCARE
SECURITY
1,095 285 60 1,860 215 155
100%
40% Unmet
70%
95% 95% 95% 95%
~60% Met
~30%What’s next
• Strategy& estimates the total financial • The funding gap is still substantial, and is expected
requirements at US$ ~3.7 billion, half of it for to persist for months to come
housing, and a third for businesses
• Fundraising campaigns should launch a second
• Local and international donors have pledged US$ round, with 2 priority areas:
600 million so far, or only ~15% of financial – Closing unmet emergency relief (housing, food
requirements assistance, cash assistance)
• Most of the basic needs for housing, food – Longer-term recovery and restoration of
assistance, education, culture and businesses livelihoods, with a particular focus on smaller
remain unmet. Funding was received by the businesses, to protect the fabric of affected
healthcare sector but is insufficient communities
• Although some non-public contributions are not • NGOs should continue forming coalitions, both
captured in the analysis, unmet needs are still among themselves and with the private sector, to
expected to be larger than our estimates, as some tackle the challenge of scale and avoid duplication of
high-profile announcements of contribution might efforts
not materialize • Donors can play a key role in smart-funding
initiatives that are local, scalable, sustainable, and
• Pledges made shortly after a disaster generally collaborative
account for the vast majority of total pledges, and
as such contributions are expected to diminish
rapidly
Strategy& 11Overview of approach Strategy& 12
Beirut explosion impact assessment scope
FOOD
HOUSING SECURITY HEALTHCARE EDUCATION BUSINESSES CULTURE
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E I M PA C T
S O C I A L I M PA C T
E C O N O M I C I M PA C T
Strategy& 13Key questions addressed in the final report
FOOD
HOUSING SECURITY HEALTHCARE EDUCATION BUSINESSES CULTURE
• How many • How many • How many • How many schools • How many • How many
buildings were individuals are in hospitals and (including TVETs1) businesses were historical sites,
damaged in the urgent or significant primary care and universities damaged in the heritage buildings
Beirut explosion, by need for food centres were were damaged in the explosion, by sector, or others similar in
damage level and assistance in each damaged in the Beirut explosion? level of damage, nature were
by district? district? Beirut explosion? • What is the total and district? damaged in the
• What is the total • What is the total • What is the total cost of repairing • How many jobs are Beirut explosion?
cost of rebuilding/ cost to fund food cost of repairing the damage? on hold • What is the total
repairing the assistance for one the damage? temporarily (for a cost of repairing
• How many students
damaged buildings? year? few weeks or them, while
• What are the costs are at risk of not
months) in each preserving their
• As a consequence, related to treating having access to
sector? heritage value?
how many physical injuries their schools?
• How many jobs
households are in and providing
were lost?
need of shelter mental care
• What are the
support? How much support?
forgone salaries?
will it cost to fund it?
• What is the economic impact of the explosion in terms of revenue
losses?
1) Technical and Vocational Education and Training
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 14High-level overview of the methodology for infrastructure
impact assessment
FOOD
HOUSING SECURITY HEALTHCARE EDUCATION BUSINESSES CULTURE
Based on geo-spatial No related Based on damages Based on data from Based on data from Based on data in the
data from within a 4.1 infrastructure impact assessed by within a 4.1 km radius within a 4.1 km radius districts affected by
km radius of the hospitals and of the explosion of the explosion the explosion
explosion healthcare centers
• For each district (around • Identified 7 affected • Listed all education • Listed all businesses • Based on Beirut Build
60), estimated the hospitals and 16 establishments based on based on Google Maps Heritage Rescue,
number of buildings, primary healthcare Google Maps data for a data (on a 2km radius) August 2020 report:
centers 2Km radius and segmented
apartments, and – Quantified the number
businesses into sectors
households affected by • Estimated the damage • Estimated the explosion of cultural sites and
level of impact per facility based on the impact level based on • Estimated the explosion buildings
cost and damage radius from the impact level based on
• Estimated the explosion – Estimated the
information provided by explosion radius from the
impact level for each reconstruction costs
each hospital and primary explosion
building based on • Estimated costs based depending on severity
health care center
distance from explosion on impact level and size • Estimated costs based of damages
of establishment on impact level and size
using Arc GIS
of establishment by
• Extrapolated the costs
• Derived the construction within a 4.1 km radius of
sector
costs per apartment the explosion • Extrapolated costs to a
based on impact level, 4.1 km radius of the
size and building status explosion to derive total
Note: Public infrastructure (e.g., port, grain silos, electricity grids, roads) damage was not covered in the analysis cost
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 15High-level overview of the methodology for social impact
assessment
FOOD
HOUSING SECURITY HEALTHCARE EDUCATION BUSINESSES CULTURE
Based on geo-spatial Based on geo-spatial Based on data within a Based on UNICEF’s Based on geo-spatial Lost jobs in culture
data within a 4.1Km data within a 4.1Km 4.1Km radius of the report; and public data within a 4.1Km have been accounted
radius of the explosion radius of the explosion explosion, interviews, database on schools’ radius of the explosion for under businesses
and MySay survey and MySay survey and MySay survey capacity and MySay survey
• Estimated uninhabitable • Estimated the • Estimated the costs of • Estimated the average • Estimated the percentage
households by district, percentage of people in treating all physical number of students per of businesses that are
assuming only houses with urgent or significant injuries school back to work, will be
severe/moderate damage need for food by district • Estimated number of • Estimated number of back in weeks, months
are no longer habitable (~15), using survey people requiring mental students at risk of not or will never be back, by
• Estimated need for results and factoring in health support in highly being able to go back to damage level and
temporary housing (e.g., income levels affected districts only, schools / TVETs company size
rent subsidy) by residents’ • Estimated the cost of using survey results • Identified average salary
proxy income level1 per providing food per per sector
district individual per month • Estimated number of jobs
• Derived total costs of over a specified duration, at risk or lost; and related
sheltering households, depending on the need share of salaries lost within
assuming specific cost per • Derived total cost of one year from the
month and length of stay, food assistance explosion
based on damage level provision for a period up
and urgency of need to 12 months
1) Estimated based on real estate price index per district
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 16High-level overview of the methodology for economic impact
assessment
APPROACH
• Categorized businesses based on sector, size of employment (S, M, L)1 and damage level from the explosion (none / insignificant, minimal,
moderate and severe; based on location)
• Estimated total revenues lost for each sector for a period of one year from the explosion by company size, factoring in damage level and time
to return to work
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• Estimated number of businesses within a 4.1Km radius of the explosion
• Percent of businesses that are back to work, need weeks to return, months to return or will never return, by damage level and company size
• Average revenues per sector and company size
• Percent of revenues lost for businesses that are back to work, need weeks to return, months to return or will never return
SOURCES
• Google Maps data, Expert interviews, MySay survey
1) Small businesses are assumed to have an average of 5 employees, medium businesses an average of 30 employees; and large businesses an average of 100 employees
Note: Micro-businesses with unregistered locations were not accounted for in the assessment due to limited data
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 17Impact on housing Strategy& 18
Methodology for housing assessment
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
METHODOLOGY FOR INFRASTRUCTURE METHODOLOGY FOR SOCIAL
ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT
APPROACH APPROACH
• Estimated the number of buildings, apartments, and households affected • Estimated the number of households that are severely or moderately
by level of impact for ~60 districts on Arc GIS damaged by district, and based on infrastructure assessment of residential
• Estimated the explosion impact level for each building based on distance buildings’ damages
from explosion • Derived the number of people requiring urgent or minor housing support,
• Derived the construction costs per apartment based on impact level, size based on residents’ proxy income level1 per district and MySay survey results
and building status • Derived the total costs of providing shelter for eligible households
• Derived the total cost of the damage
KEY ASSUMPTIONS KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• Only severely or moderately damaged houses are considered uninhabitable
• Impact level coefficients and costs by severity of damage • Income levels for each district (L, L+, M, M+, H)
• Size of property coefficients (Small, Medium, Large Size) • Percent of households requiring urgent or minor shelter support (survey)
• Building status coefficients (Low, Mid to Low, Mid, Mid to High, High-End) • Average cost of shelter per month, and length of stay required
SOURCES SOURCES
• UN-OCHA, Expert Interviews, HOTOSM Lebanon Buildings, Khatib & Alami, • UN-OCHA, Expert Interviews, MySay survey
MySay survey
1) Estimated based on real estate price index
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 19Directional
Overall impact on housing
Total
US$ ~ 1.86 billion
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT SOCIAL IMPACT
None / Insignificant damage ~2,440 ~39,210 ~31,300
Some glass failure
buildings households uninhabitable houses due to severe or moderate
damage
Minimal damage ~10,610 ~122,890
Glass failure, limited damage to house
buildings households
structures (e.g., false ceiling, wood ~13,0001
panels)
households with minor to urgent need for temporary
housing (e.g., rent subsidy)
Moderate damage
~2,570 ~28,980
Space made uninhabitable/ usable,
furniture, window frame, and wood
buildings households
panels damaged
Severe damage ~240 ~2,310
Partition walls shattered, steel frame
buildings households
buildings distorted and pulled away
from foundation
TOTAL ~15,860 ~193,390 US$ ~30 million total financial requirements for rental2 cost to
US$ ~1,830 million total financial requirements support displaced people in need of housing
1) Assumes residents of remaining uninhabitable houses possess second homes or can afford to rehouse themselves
2) Rental cost covers a period of 18 months for houses with severe damage and 4 months for houses with moderate damage
Strategy& Source: Expert Interviews, UN-OCHA, HOTOSM Lebanon Buildings, Khatib & Alami, MySay survey, Strategy& analysis 20Directional
Infrastructure impact – Housing
Total
15.8K
US$ ~1.8Bn2
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion) 193K
Mina El-Hosn Marfaa Saifi Medawar
0.3K 0.2K 0.3K 0.5K
US$ 23Mn1 US$ 32Mn US$ 59Mn US$ 239Mn
2.4K 0.9K 1.8K 4.5K
1.6 km 4.1 km
Dar El-Mreisseh 0.8 km Al Karantina
0.3K 0.1K
US$ 20Mn US$ 2Mn
3.8K Marfaa 0.6K
Medawar
Dar El-Mreisseh Mina Al
El-Hosn Karantina
Ras Beirut Saifi Rmeil
1.6K Ras Beirut Rmeil 1.1K
Zuqaq
US$ 39Mn Bourj US$ 489Mn
El-Blat
22K Hammoud 14K
Bachoura
Achrafieh Bourj Hammoud
Zuqaq El-Blat
0.3K 2.2K
US$ 15Mn Mousaitbeh US$ 85Mn
4.2K 15K
Mazraa
Bachoura Mazraa Achrafieh
Mousaitbeh 0.4K 3.7K
2.7K 2.4K
US$ 75Mn US$ 174Mn
US$ 141Mn 5.1K 47K US$ 440Mn
40K 32K
Estimated damage cost Number of buildings impacted Number of households impacted Severe damage Moderate damage Minimal Damage
1) Million 2) Billion
Strategy& Source: Expert interviews, HOTOSM Lebanon Buildings, Khatib & Alami, MySay survey, Strategy& analysis 21Directional
Financial requirements vs. announced pledges –
Housing
FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS AND SELECTED EXAMPLES OF SELECTED EXAMPLES OF
ANNOUNCED PLEDGES (US$ Million) ANNOUNCED DONATIONS IN-KIND DONATIONS
US$ 35 million from UNHCR to shelter 138 tons of glass donated by the UAE
1,860 and protect the most vulnerable Lebanese, to help repair more than 1,000 destroyed
30 refugees and migrant households in Beirut homes and small businesses by covering
over the coming months ~9,000 sqm
UAE
US$ 2+ million from corporations Quantities of aluminum and glass to
such as Google, Facebook, Procter & be provided by private companies in Cyprus
1,830
Gamble, PepsiCo and Chanel
Cyprus
US$ 2+ million raised through public Hundreds of free shelters offered by
crowdfunding campaigns the Lebanese community and hotels
Costs Announced
pledges
Lebanon
Cost for temporary housing Cost of reconstruction
Note: Announced pledges do not include in-kind donations
Strategy& Source: Impact Lebanon for announced financial pledges, Strategy& analysis 22Impact on food security Strategy& 23
Methodology for food security assessment
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
METHODOLOGY FOR SOCIAL
ASSESSMENT
APPROACH
• Estimated the percentage of people in urgent or significant need of food by district, using MySay survey results and factoring in the average income
level of the districts’ residents
• Estimated cost of providing food per individual for a month and number of months required (based on urgency of need)
• Derived total cost of providing food assistance
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• Percentage of people requiring moderate or urgent need of food assistance in lower income districts
• Cost of providing food assistance per individual, by need level
• Number of months of food provision needed
SOURCES
• UN-OCHA, MySay survey, Expert Interviews
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 24Directional
Social impact – Food security
Total
172K
US$ ~215 Mn
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion) 135K
Marfaa Saifi Medawar
0.1K 1K 2.3K
US$ 0.5Mn US$ 1.5Mn US$ 3Mn
0.1K 1K 2.3K
1.6 km 4.1 km
0.8 km Al Karantina
27K
US$ 33Mn
Marfaa 19K
Medawar
Dar El-Mreisseh Mina Al
El-Hosn Karantina
Ras Beirut Saifi Rmeil
2.5K Ras Beirut Rmeil 7.8K
Zuqaq
US$ 3.2Mn Bourj US$ 10.5Mn
El-Blat
2.5K Hammoud 7.8K
Bachoura
Achrafieh Bourj Hammoud
Zuqaq El-Blat
8.2K 15K
US$ 910Mn Mousaitbeh US$ 18.5Mn
5.7K Level of funding required 11K
Low High
Mazraa
Bachoura Mazraa Achrafieh
Mousaitbeh 7.8K 61K
23K 16K
US$ 9.5Mn US$ 73Mn
US$ 30Mn 5.5K 42K US$ 21Mn
23K 16K
Estimated cost of providing food assistance Urgent need for food Moderate need for food
Note: Food assistance requirements were assessed based on MySay survey results; which asked about food needs as a consequence of the blast. However, these needs
could be accentuated or influenced by pre-explosion conditions (COVID-19 impact and / or economic crisis)
Strategy& Source: OCHA, MySay survey, Expert Interviews, Strategy& analysis 25Directional
Financial requirements vs. announced pledges –
Food security
FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS AND SELECTED EXAMPLES OF SELECTED EXAMPLES OF
ANNOUNCED PLEDGES1 (US$ Million) ANNOUNCED DONATIONS IN-KIND DONATIONS
US$ ~25 million in foreign aid from ~660 tons of food
215 international countries France
Canada USA UK Australia Denmark Hungary 295 tons of food
Morocco
US$ ~7.5 million
10 tons of flour
Spain
US$ ~2.5 million from corporations
such as Google, Facebook, Procter &
Gamble, PepsiCo, Chanel, Citi, H&M 1.5 million portions
Foundation of cheese
Costs Announced
1 million portions
pledges
of Kiri and Picon
Cost of food assistance
1) Factors for in-kind donations
Strategy& Source: Impact Lebanon, Strategy& analysis 26Impact on healthcare Strategy& 27
Methodology for healthcare assessment
METHODOLOGY FOR INFRASTRUCTURE METHODOLOGY FOR SOCIAL
ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT
Based on data shared by service providers Based on data within a 4.1km radius of the explosion
APPROACH APPROACH
• Identified 17 affected hospitals and 16 primary healthcare centers • Estimated cost of treating all physical injuries
• Estimated the damage per hospital and primary healthcare center based • Estimated percentage of people in highly affected areas that require limited,
on the cost and damage information provided by each facility moderate and urgent mental heath support
• Estimated number of people requiring mental health support, and the ones
requiring medical support, in highly affected areas only, using survey results
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• Residents of damaged houses are more prone to require mental health support
• N/A • Only people with moderate to high need of support are accounted for
• Number of sessions required for moderate or intensive treatment
• Average cost of hospitalization and average length of stay by injury severity
• Cost per psychology session and cost of medical treatment
SOURCES SOURCES
• Service Providers, Expert Interviews, Lebanon Needs • MySay survey, Expert Interviews
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 28Directional
Infrastructure impact – Healthcare
Total US$ ~70K for
Total US$ 68 – 75 million for 7 out of the 17 damaged hospitals;
16 damaged Primary Health Care
US$ ~66 million are for the 4 severely damaged ones
Centers
US$ 8 million (10%)
Karantina Hospital
US$ 2 million (3%)
LAU MC – Rizk Hospital
US$ 2 million (3%)
AUB - MC
US$ 1.2 million (3%)
Hôtel-Dieu De France
US$ 7 million (10%)
Geitaoui Hospital
US $ 13 – 15 million (19%)
Hôpital des Sœurs du Rosaire
US$ 35 – 40 million (52%)
Saint George Hospital
Strategy& Source: Interviews, Lebanon Needs, Strategy& analysis 29Directional
Social impact – Health
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
SOCIAL IMPACT
~6,500
Individuals with moderate to critical injuries (hospitalized)
~1,300
of hospitalized individuals underwent surgery 80
~145,000 US$ Mn1
Individuals needing psychological support total financial
requirements
Moderate need for mental ~121,000 Individuals
care
Urgent need for mental care ~24,000 Individuals
1) Million
Strategy& Source: Expert interviews, MySay survey, Strategy& analysis 30Directional
Financial requirements vs. announced pledges –
Healthcare
FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS1 AND SELECTED EXAMPLES OF SELECTED EXAMPLES OF
ANNOUNCED PLEDGES2 (US$ Million) ANNOUNCED DONATIONS IN-KIND DONATIONS
US$ ~30 million in foreign aid from Medical supplies
155 regional and international countries 60 tons 40 tons 40 tons
Jobs for
UAE Norway
Lebanon
Canada USA UK Australia Italy 21 tons 20 tons 20 tons
80 Morocco WHO Iraq
US$ 18 Mn for
18 tons 9 tons 5 tons
physical injuries
US$ ~7.5 million
France Italy US Army
(covered by the
Lebanese Ministry
of Health),
and US$ 62 Mn for US$ ~2.5 million from corporations Field hospitals
mental health
75
550 beds 58 beds 50 beds 50 beds
Qatar Jordan Russia Morocco
Costs Announced US$ 2+ million raised through public
pledges Other
crowdfunding campaigns 600 chemical protection suits
Denmark
Cost of treatment Cost of reconstruction
1) Financial requirements do not cover cost of medical supplies required
2) In-kind donations in the form of medical supplies have been excluded; however cost of treating physical injuries have been included as it is assumed to be covered by MoH
Strategy& Source: Impact Lebanon, Strategy& analysis 31Impact on education Strategy& 32
Methodology for education assessment
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
METHODOLOGY FOR INFRASTRUCTURE METHODOLOGY FOR SOCIAL
ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT
APPROACH APPROACH
• Listed all education establishments (schools and universities) based on • Listed all schools and TVETs based on Google Maps data within 2km
Google Maps data within 2km radius from the explosion radius from the explosion
• Calculated impact level based on distance from explosion • Identified number of students in each of these schools
• Estimated costs based on impact level and size of establishment • Estimated average number of students for the ones with no data
• Derived number of students at risk of not being able to go back to school or
• Derived the final cost of damages
TVETs, based on total number of schools and TVET centers damaged
• Extrapolated the cost of damages to a 4.1km radius from explosion
KEY ASSUMPTIONS KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• Impact level coefficients and costs by severity of damage • Average number of students in a school (extrapolated based on available
• Size of property coefficients (Small, Medium, Large Size) data)
• Average Capex cost per m2
SOURCES SOURCES
• UNCHR Reports, Expert Interviews, Google data, MySay survey • Google maps data, UNICEF, UN-OCHA, Ministry of Education
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 33Directional
Overall impact on education
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT SOCIAL IMPACT
~8 universities damaged1
~67,000
students impacted due to schools and TVETs
damages
~140 schools and TVETs damaged
within 4.1Km radius
US$ ~60 million total financial requirements
1) Larger than 4.1Km radius from the explosion
Note: Costs to cover tuition fees were not factored for in this assessment
Strategy& Source: UNCHR Reports, Expert Interviews, Google data, Khatib & Alami, MySay survey, Strategy& analysis 34Directional
Financial requirements vs. announced pledges – Education
FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS1 AND SELECTED EXAMPLES OF ANNOUNCED
ANNOUNCED PLEDGES (US$ Million) DONATIONS
60 US$ 1.2 million from UNESCO
US$ 0.4 million raised through public crowdfunding
campaigns
Cost Announced
pledges
Cost of Reconstruction
1) This assessment did not include the cost of covering tuition fees
Strategy& Source: Impact Lebanon, Strategy& analysis 35Impact on businesses Strategy& 36
Methodology for businesses assessment
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
METHODOLOGY FOR INFRASTRUCTURE METHODOLOGY FOR SOCIAL
ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT
APPROACH APPROACH
• Listed all business establishments based on Google Maps data (2Km) and • Categorized Google Maps data on businesses based on sector, size of
segmented them into 7 sectors: Food and Drink, Shopping, Leisure, employment and severity of damage
Lodging, Non-Consumer, Services, Other • Estimated total jobs that are temporarily on hold and total jobs lost; and
• Calculated impact level based on distance from explosion related share of foregone salaries, by sector, within one year from explosion
• For each sector, estimated costs based on impact level and size of • Extrapolated the cost of damage within a 4.1km radius of the explosion
establishment
• Derived the final cost of damage
• Extrapolated the cost of damage within a 4.1km radius of the explosion KEY ASSUMPTIONS
KEY ASSUMPTIONS • Percentage of businesses that are back to work, in weeks, months or not
returning, by damage level and company size; and expected percent loss in
• Impact level coefficients and costs by severity of damage salaries for each
• Size of property coefficients (Small, Medium, Large Size) • Businesses that are beyond 2km radius faced low or minor level of damage
• Average Capex cost per m2 • Average salary by sector
SOURCES SOURCES
• Expert Interviews, Google Maps data, MySay survey • Expert Interviews, Google Maps data, MySay survey
1) Small businesses are assumed to have on average 5 employees, medium businesses an average of 30 employees; and large businesses an average of 100 employees
Note: Micro-businesses with unregistered locations were not accounted for in the assessment due to limited data
Strategy& Source: Strategy& analysis 37Directional
Infrastructure impact – Businesses by sector
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
NUMBER OF BUSINESSES FUNDING NEEDED FUNDING NEEDED
PER SECTOR PER SECTOR BY SIZE1 OF BUSINESS
Total ~31K businesses Total US$ ~865 Million Total US$ ~865 Million
5% 4% 3% 80
15%
17% (9%)
20%
25%
8%
5%
318 467
7% (54%)
14% (37%)
Small
19% 21% Medium
38%
Large
~45% of the businesses affected are Non-consumer, lodging and leisure Most of the affected businesses are small
shopping and services related businesses will need around 70% of funding, businesses, requiring around US$ 470 million
around US$ 570 million
Lodging Food & drink Leisure Non-consumer2 Shopping Services Other3
1) Size of business in square meters
2) Banks, corporate offices and embassies
3) Uncategorized small businesses such as computer shops, beauty salons, art studios
Strategy& Source: Expert Interviews, Google Maps data, MySay survey, Strategy& analysis 38Directional
Social impact – Businesses by sector
(within a 4.1 Km radius of the explosion)
NUMBER OF JOBS AFFECTED (in 000s)
Total jobs on hold for weeks: ~104,000
Jobs on hold for weeks Jobs on hold for months Jobs lost
Total jobs on hold for months: ~10,500
45 Total jobs lost: ~15,500
Total jobs directly impacted: ~130,000
28
37
20
16
23
15 10
12 6 5
4 2 9
4 2 3 2 4 1 4 1
3 3 1 1 1 1
SERVICES NON-CONSUMER SHOPPING FOOD AND DRINKS LEISURE LODGING OTHER
EQUIVALENT
SALARY
LOSS
US$ 80 US$ 50 US$ 30 US$ 25 US$ 15 US$ 15 US$ 15
Million Million Million Million Million Million Million
Note: Some examples of businesses under services include airlines, banks, training centers, doctors’ clinics. Other section includes art studies, designers, shipping.
Micro-businesses with unregistered locations have been excluded from the assessment
Strategy& Source: Expert Interviews, Google Maps data, MySay survey, Strategy& analysis 39Directional
Financial requirements vs. announced pledges – Businesses
FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS AND SELECTED EXAMPLES OF
ANNOUNCED PLEDGES (US$ Million) ANNOUNCED DONATIONS
1,095 US$ 0.75 million raised through public crowdfunding
campaigns and associations
230
US$ 0.3 million from Facebook Journalism Project
865 and the International Center for Journalists
Financial Announced
requirements pledges
Estimated Salary Losses Cost of Reconstruction
Strategy& Source: Impact Lebanon, Strategy& analysis 40Directional
Infrastructure and social impact – Micro businesses
Micro businesses have been severely affected by the explosion; however, with the absence of data, it is
! difficult to quantify:
NUMBER OF COST OF COST OF
MICRO-BUSINESSES RECONSTRUCTION LIVELIHOOD
IMPACTED DAMAGES RESTORATION
Out of a sample size of ~1,550 micro-businesses within 5km of the explosion, nearly ~115 have been damaged (11 total
destruction, 55 major damages, and 50 minor damages)
On average, cost of reconstruction per sampled micro-business ranges between US$ 1,000 and US$ 3,000
Strategy& Source: Almajmoua, Strategy& analysis 41Impact on culture Strategy& 42
Directional
Damage to cultural heritage
8
historical areas and cultural fabric have
been damaged in: Mar Mkhayel, Sayfi,
Gemmayze, Jeitawi, St Nicolas, Zukak blat,
Minat al Hosn and Bachura
480
heritage buildings have been damaged:
85 severely damaged, 370 moderately
damaged and 25 slightly damaged
160
additional buildings with special features
(e.g., pitched roof from the 19th century) in
Severely damaged1 surrounding areas (e.g., Medawar) have
been also affected
Moderately damaged1
1) Damage ranges from loss of openings and cracks, to detachment of elements of the building, to total collapse
Strategy& Source: Ministry of Culture – Directorate General of Antiquities' Beirut Built Heritage Rescue 2020 Report, Strategy& analysis 43Directional
Cultural heritage funding requirements
1% US$ 4 million ceilings, • Funding required covers the
painted walls, artworks reconstruction of 640 affected
cultural buildings (480 heritage
2% US$ 5 million timber ceilings buildings and 160 buildings with
5% US$ 15 million design, special features)
US$ supervision, and unforeseen expenses
~285 10% US$ 29 million structural
Million propping and roofing
• UNESCO launched the “Li
34% US$ 95 million interior works Beirut” initiative to support the
rehabilitation of schools, historic
48% US$ 137 million elevation heritage buildings, museums,
works galleries and the creative economy
Strategy& Source: Ministry of Culture – Directorate General of Antiquities, UNESCO Statement of Solidarity, Strategy& analysis 44Thank you Strategy& is a global strategy consulting business uniquely positioned to help deliver your best future: one that is built on differentiation from the inside out and tailored exactly to you. As part of PwC, every day we’re building the winning systems that are at the heart of growth. We combine our powerful foresight with tangible know-how, technology, and scale to help you create a better, more transformative strategy from day one. We’re 100+ years, 3,000 strategy consultants, over 276,000 PwC professionals, and 157 countries strong. © 2020 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. Mentions of Strategy& refer to the global team of practical strategists that is integrated within the PwC network of firms. For more about Strategy&, see www.strategyand.pwc.com/me. No reproduction is permitted in whole or part without written permission of PwC. Disclaimer: This content is for general purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. This proposal contains information that is proprietary and confidential to Strategy&, As such, the addressee should not disclose this document or any attachments in whole, or in part to any third party without the prior written consent of Strategy&. The addressee also acknowledges that information shared here within is the intellectual property of Strategy& and is subject to a non disclosure agreement as recognized by the copyright and intellectual property regulations.
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