GENERAL ELECTION 2019 HIGHLIGHTS - INDIA TODAY GROUP Date: May 19, 2019 - axis my india
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GENERAL ELECTION 2019
HIGHLIGHTS
INDIA TODAY GROUP
Date: May 19, 2019
EXIT POLL 2019 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS - HIGHLIGHTS
In this General Election its Modi all the way in the absence of parallel
PM Candidate.
More of a Presidential Type Election. Modi seems invincible.
The sentiments of the voters and swing entirely in one direction cannot
be expressed better when their response was:
Local Candidate Majboori hai - Modi Zaroori hai
Many factors contributed for Modi –BJP –NDA victory.
Divided Opposition – Fragmentation of votes.
Delivery of Social Welfare Schemes – Cooking Gas, Toilets and Housing.
Proven performance as against 2014 victory due to anti-incumbency &
negatives of UPA.
Full Eastern India (Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Assam and
North Eastern states) painted with saffron
Unemployment (33%) and Farmer related issues (14%) and Development
(19%) were the major poll issues and other most important issues of
inflation, national security and corruption were well under control during
the last five years.
Basic amenities like Roads, Electricity, Health, Education, Women
empowerment and Security, Digitalization, Law & Order and Drinking
water except in some pockets has been improved to a large extent.
All these were good enough reasons for the voters to repose their
trust in Modi. Notebandi was the Game Changer.
It succeeded in making a paradigm shift in the public perception of BJP
particularly of Modi being pro-poor as against the earlier perception
of pro-rich party which was evident during Delhi & Bihar Elections.
Economists & other influential groups may have their own views.
But in our opinion Notebandi had a major political & social impact.
2/3rd of population is happy against 1/3rd being unhappy.
Modi’s reference to “DHANNA SETH” in all his speeches had a major
impact.
Majority of the population could relate to this phrase & whatever he did
was perceived as a positive step.
Youth, first time voters and female voters have voted for BJP in large
numbers.
Modi’s ability to convert adverse situation to a positive factor established
his bold decision making ability & governance.
Very limited Anti-incumbency in certain Demography (Minority, Dalits
in limited pockets) and Geography - Punjab / Tamilnadu / Kerala /
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
Congress prefers to function with old software in new machinery. People outright rejected self-centered parties with Politics of Convenience and alliance including BJP alliance with AIADMK backfired & got rejected. Starting from J&K to Bengal and Karnataka, even till two days before the last date for filing the nominations for the first phase Congress did not decide their alliances. In some case they could form the alliance and in some case they could not – like with AAP in Delhi till the 6th phase. If you want to change the mindset of people, there should be concrete plans and today’s younger generations are very aspirational and expect leaders who can deliver in short time with conviction. Congress as an opposition to the ruling Government has very little to offer except dynasty rule and failed miserably to communicate the benefits of their last minute announcement of “NYAY SCHEME” for the poor since it was misunderstood as a scheme to provide Justice. People see through the greed of Politicians who want to grab the maximum for their own family progression which is evident in the case of JDS in Karnataka, RJD in Bihar, SP in UP, NCP in Maharashtra, etc. in other parts of the country. Mamta preached consolidation of opposition in Delhi but did not have any alliance in Bengal. This General Election has proved that it is beyond caste / dynastic politics. Finally Delivery paid off at the end.
ANDHRA PRADESH
2019 GENERAL & ASSEMBLY ELECTION EXIT POLL
In Andhra Pradesh simultaneous elections for Assembly &
Loksabha were held & YSRCP Jagan Mohan Reddy somehow has
managed to establish himself as a leader & gained momentum
through aggressive outreach on the ground level.
He convinced the voters that he is the right alternative & both
Congress & BJP could not dent this image.
He has used all the possible & available resources to ensure his
victory.
The present Govt. of Chandrababu Naidu is facing severe anti-
incumbency factor.
Anti-incumbency coupled with his failure to get special status to
Andhra Pradesh & his decision to separate from the NDA Govt.
about a year before the Election have contributed to Naidu’s loss.
Also TDP alliance with Congress in Telangana damaged TDP image
further.
As for Loksabha in the same state YSRCP unlikely to get the same
support & assured patronage being at National level having
National parties like BJP & Congress.
YSRCP is considered as Chotta Congress & the main Congress is
Bada Congress since YSRCP is a spilt from the Congress.ASSAM
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Implementation of NRC played a major role in favour of BJP.
Full credit should be given to one man - Himanta Biswa Sarma who
capitalized the situation in favour of BJP.
Congress inspite of undeclared alliance with Badruddin Ajmal of
AIUDF ruined prospects of AIUDF by fielding Congress Candidates in
the three Muslim dominated seats (Karimganj, Dhubri and Barpeta)
and Muslim votes seems to be split equally among Congress and
AIUDF –ideal situation for AGP / BJP since AIUDF Badruddin Ajmal
had declared to contest only from these three seats & support
Congress in all the seats across the State.
This resulted in major loss for Congress due to spilt of Minority votes.
On the other hand, BJP re-alliance with AGP gave 3 seats out of the
total 14 seats in the State.
The 3 seats given to AGP are purely in Muslim dominated areas
including Kaliabor the one where the Son of Tarun Gogoi of Congress
is contesting.
It will not be a surprise if NDA wins almost all the 14 Seats.BIHAR
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Re-alliance of JDU - BJP ensuring real Tsunami type victory for both
BJP - JDU both giants in the State sweeping across the state along
with Ram Vilas Paswan party LJP.
NDA alliance is enjoying the total swing including 1/3 rd of Yadav
voters.
Halfhearted and indecisiveness of Congress for UPA alliance with
RJD - HAM and CPM in Arrah, fighting for seat share till the very
end lost the total trust. Even Shatrughan Sinha, that too, last
minute joining Congress could not make any impact.CHHATTISGARH
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
The major difference between Assembly Election five months back
& now is the 15 years anti-incumbency of BJP got settled during
Assembly Elections & all 11 candidates were fresh candidates
fielded by BJP.
The huge defeat of BJP was due to OBC Sahu votes traditionally
BJP vote share largely shifted to Congress during Assembly
Elections got back to BJP fold in General Elections.
With 32% tribal population in Chhattisgarh traditionally voting in
60:40 ratio for Congress & BJP in the last Assembly Elections BJP
has managed to get some tribal votes into their fold in General
Election but still Tribal dominated seats are likely to be won by
Congress & BJP is likely to win majority of the urban and non-
tribal seats.GUJARAT
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Gujarat is all about having the Pride of Gujarathi PM.
On the other-hand whatever Congress could gain momentum
during last year’s Assembly Election got diluted due to
disassociation with Alpesh Thakur and Hardik Patel could not
contest the Elections.HARYANA
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Realignment of major regional parties of Haryana
Kuldeep Bishnoi merged with Congress.
JJP aligned with AAP.
INLD split in to two which divided the JAT vote share further.
In spite of anti-incumbency in the State level, BJP marching ahead
due to Modi factor & clearly enjoying the advantage of JAT vote
division among four parties except Rohtak Lok Sabha Constituency
where JAT is voting in bulk for Congress Candidate Deepender
Singh Hooda which is not the case in Sonipat Lok Sabha
Constituency where former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is
contesting.
BJP has a clear cut advantage due to Modi wave.HIMACHAL PRADESH
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Large population being in Defense Services or dependent are totally
in favour of BJP.
Hardly any minority community and general OBC population voting in
favour of BJP in large numbers.JHARKHAND
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Benefit of Central Govt. Social Welfare schemes has been received by
the people particularly among scheduled castes & other backward
class community.
Jharkhand is known as tribal state with 26% ST further divided
between Hindu Adivasi & Christian Adivasi.
Christian Advasis are aligned with JMM & Congress plus whereas
Hindu Adivasis are aligned to BJP.
Rainbow alliance formed by the Congress doesn’t seem working on
ground.
Clearly Modi phenomena has overshadowed othersKARNATAKA
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Congress -JD(S) Alliance Seat Sharing arithmetic for General
Election though mutually agreed their chemistry was not evident &
formidable enough to challenge BJP at Ground Level. Infact,
Vokkaligas voted a little more in favour of BJP than Congress –
JD(S) alliance.
BJP also enjoyed the sympathy of voters for Non –formation of
Govt.in the state in spite of their best efforts being the single
largest party close to the majority mark.
Karnataka voters were shocked & miffed at JD(S) dynasty politics
having 3 generations of Deve Gowda family as poll candidates
when already his son HD Kumaraswamy is the present CM besides
Kumaraswamy `s wife Anitha is an MLA & older Son HD Revanna
is in charge of the powerful PWD Department in the same
ministry.
The Gowda family has found itself at the receiving end of public
anger over its dynastic politics from a position of immense
strength.KERALA
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Kerala state being of cyclic nature and with double anti-
incumbency both in state and centre Congress gets the
advantage.
Congress silence on Sabarimala issue added to their advantage.
The Social base of 27% Muslim and 18% Christians are clearly
supporting Congress.
In addition, Rahul Gandhi contesting from Wayanad gave the
additional boost for the Congress across the state.
Kerala along with Punjab are the only states where Congress
seems to be doing really good.MADHYA PRADESH
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
BJP ruled MP for last 15 years. Hence whatsoever anti-incumbency
was there got settled with defeat in Assembly Elections in spite of
having little better vote share & with very little number of seats
margin for the majority mark.
BJP clearly enjoys the sympathy of Non-Formation of Govt.inspite of
getting very close to the majority mark.
Across all class & caste except Muslims all are in favour of BJP.
BJP clearly enjoys the benefit for the delivery of social welfare
schemes of the Central Govt particularly among SC & ST which are
in large numbers in MP.
Congress Govt. failed to communicate NYAY & the benefits of the
scheme, in spite of having Congress Govt. in the State.
There was very limited impact of farmers loan waiver across the
State. Farmers have received letters but not sure whether this is
good enough.MAHARASHTRA
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
There was double anti-incumbency against BJP particularly among
scheduled castes.
VBA lead by Prakash Yashwant Ambedkar in alliance with AIMIM
ensured the lion share of the scheduled castes community across
the State particularly in significant numbers in Vidarbha region for
his party.
VBA likely to get 12-15% of the vote share which has damaged the
prospects of NCP/ Congress alliance on almost all the seats.
BJP - ShivSena last minute alliance managed to safeguard their turf
to a large extent & capitalized on the Modi factor.
NCP is better than Congress & doing good in their bastion.
Congress has lost heavily due to infighting and scheduled castes
vote shifted to VBA which was traditionally with Congress for a long
time.DELHI
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
BJP has clear-cut advantage position due to non-alliance of
Congress & AAP.
Congress has regained its vote share to a large extent from AAP.
AAP paying heavy price for desperation shown for alliance with
Congress.
Though people are not happy with BJP MPs, they are voting for
Modi and not for the Candidate.ODISHA
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Very Strange & different verdict for State & Central Govt.
There were two different voting machines for State & Centre polling.
We have been very careful while asking voting preference for the two
& we received different verdicts including the voting trend between
male & female voters are different & these have been reported.
BJP has clearly made in- roads across the State.
In fact, BJP is more popular among ST & SC Class for Central Govt
voting.
People acknowledge the benefits of free Gas Connection & Housing of
the Central Govt & free Rice distribution of the State Govt.
When it comes to voting for the State Govt. Naveen Patnaik seems to
be the most popular candidate contesting for the 5th term & there is
no sign of any anti-incumbency against Mr. Patnaik & the State Govt.
He seems invincible as he enjoys the rock solid support of the people
& for them as long as Naveenbabu is there leading the BJD they will
not shift their loyalty.
BJD is going to retain power for the 5th term with good margin.
For Axis My India Naveen Patnaik is a matter of case study as he has
governed the State without the usual cadre based set up & resources
besides being low profile without publicity & any family baggage &
even cannot speak the local language properly. He is not available
after 6:00 in the evening & with all the constraints of being the
Poorest State has survived & governed the State for four terms in
spite of continuously victimized by natural calamities.PUNJAB
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Punjab is the only state where Congress is capitalizing on the state
Government and likely to get good number of seats.
BJP - Akali Dal still facing discontent and anti-incumbency due to
pervious Akali rule.
Most importantly, this is the state where Modi impact is not evident.
AAP seems to have lost its base due to infighting.
Only Bhagwant Mann sitting MP from Sangrur enjoys the people
support mainly due to his individual capacity as celebrity.RAJASTHAN
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
The Last BJP ruled Govt. anti-incumbency got settled with Assembly
Election five months back.
In fact, while doing the survey for Assembly polls people were clearly
saying Modi for Centre which is further re-enforced during General
Elections.
BJP successfully formed the alliance with Hanuman Beniwal party &
on the other hand Congress could not reach out to regional small
parties who had secured significant vote share & seat share in the
recently concluded Assembly Elections.TAMILNADU
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Many factors against AIADMK
Three way spilt after Jayalalithaa death.
DMK Stalin in particular enjoying the double sympathy
after losing the Assembly Elections and demise of his father
Shri M. Karunanidhi.
During Assembly Elections people voted for Jayalalithaa & after her
death, there is complete shift to DMK.
In desperation AIDMK formed the unholy alliance with BJP with
double anti-incumbency both in State & Centre.
On the other hand, Statin stiched rainbow alliance with Congress &
with even smallest parties DMK (40), INC (9), CPI (2), CPI(M) (2),
VCK (2), IUML (1), MDMK (1), KMDK (1), IJK (1).
Also Central Govt. in particular could not prove any charges
against 2G & hence DMK enjoys the clean image & for AIDMK its
total debacle across the State.
DMK Alliance seems to be sweeping TamilnaduTELANGANA
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
TRS facing anti-incumbency particularly among farmers
immediately after retaining power.
In fact in Nizamabad Constituency where Kavitha, CM’s daughter is
contesting 178 farmers have filed their nominations as a protest to
express their anger.
Congress have lost the credit for the formation of the state by
aligning with TDP during Assembly Elections. Hence could not
capitalize fully what-so-ever for the anti-incumbency after the
newly formed Government.
BJP has very limited presence in the state and giving tough fight in
three seats - Adilabad, Karimnagar and Nizamabad where CM’s
daughter is contesting and likely to increase their vote share if not
seats.UTTAR PRADESH
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
UP is all about Social - Caste coalition
Caste Equation
Muslim (19) + SC Jatav (11) + Yadav(9)+SC Non Jatav (10)= 49%
OBC- Non Yadav (26) + General (23) & Others (2) = 51%
Considering this SP + BSP + RLD arch rivals came together and formed
the alliance since their combined vote share was 44% in AE 2017 and
42% in GE 2014 as against BJP secured 43%.
Muslim, SC Jatav and Yadav largely voting in favour of MGB.
On the other hand, General & OBC voting for BJP in a big way.
SC Non Jatav voting 57% for BJP, 30% for MGB,
8% for Congress and 5% for Others.
SC Non Jatav also voting for BJP on account of benefit of various Central
Government Social Welfare schemes- Free Gas, Toilets and Housing
which is the major differentiator between BJP and MGB.
Though 49% Social base for one alliance and 51% for the other seems
almost at par but while converting these Caste group onto individual
seats the scenario changes drastically.
For instance, in Western UP in certain pockets Muslim population are in
large numbers whereas Yadavs are negligible. Likewise, in areas where Yadavs are in large numbers, Muslims are very much less in numbers and limited to only 4-5 Lok Sabha Constituencies. Similarly, Brahmins in particular in General Class are in large numbers in Eastern UP but OBCs are spread almost uniformly across the State and that is where BJP is way ahead in caste arithmetic. But “Voters Turnout” become key for BJP as in our continuous poll studies it is proved that upper class and OBC’s Turnout is less in numbers in comparison to Muslims and Dalits. Seats where Turnout is same or more in comparison to GE 2014, then BJP has no worries, otherwise advantage to MGB. But where the Non – Jatav votes in addition to Jatav Muslim & Yadav are voting in favour of Gatbandhan, they are most likely to win in those seats. Except Baghpet and Muzaffarnagar Jat Voters voting largely in favour of BJP. Congress could not make any gain anywhere in spite of introduction of Priyanka Gandhi except traditional bastion of Raebareli and in Amethi Rahul Gandhi is in tough fight with BJP candidate Smriti Irani. Law and Order situation well under control by Yogi Government in the State is an additional advantage to BJP.
UTTARAKHAND
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
Large population being in Defense Services or dependent are totally
in favour of BJP in spite of the issues on the performance of the State
Govt.
Hardly any minority community and general upper class population
voting in favour of BJP in large numbers.WEST BENGAL
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL
BJP has succeeded in making in-roads, particularly in North Bengal,
Central Bengal and extreme South Jharkhand border and Tribal
areas.
There was a clear-cut HM factor feeling in the above regions.
TMC managed and was able to retain its strong hold in South
Central and Kolkata regions.
Somehow TMC is seen as Pro-Muslim party. Hence, large number of
Hindu voters from TMC shifted to BJP and Muslims voters shifted
from Congress to TMC.
Hindu voters of Communist party totally shifted to BJP.
There was a clear-cut fear factor. People were very scared to reveal
as to whom they have supported in this Election.
Axis My India faced difficulties in conducting the Survey in West
Bengal. Somehow, we managed to conclude with lots of trouble and
difficulties.You can also read
