Global RE100 Status and Corporate PPA Trends - Global Offshore Wind Summit Taiwan Virtual 2020
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Global RE100 Status and Corporate PPA Trends Global Offshore Wind Summit Taiwan Virtual 2020 Helen Dewhurst 13 October 2020
BNEF Sustainability Research
Transition opportunities Drivers & enablers
Power: clean energy buying Make: cleaner manufacturing Sustainable finance
● Global procurement options ● 3D printing ● Regulation & standards
● Procurement innovation ● Circular economy ● Market innovation and growth
● Utility & oil company strategies ● Industry digitalization ● Transition debt, sustainability-linkage
● Data tool: PPA activity ● Industrial heat decarbonization ● Social & pandemic finance
● Price survey: Europe PPA market ● CCUS & hydrogen ● Data tool: sustainable debt
● Model: corporate power emissions ● Data tool: digital industry projects ● Data tool: sustainability-linked debt
Move: sustainable logistics Supply: greening the supply chain Policy, reporting & targets
● Commercial vehicle economics ● Supply chain sustainability strategies ● TCFD & EU Taxonomy
● Electrification ● Advanced materials ● Green policy
● Alternative fuels ● Metals & mining ● Data tool: science-based targets
● Digital optimization ● Data tool: suppliers under sustainability ● Database: Circular economy policy
● Automaker sustainability pressure ● Data tool: RE100 targets
● Data tool: automaker strategies
Primers & guides Recurring publications
● TCFD ● Corporate Energy Market Outlook – biannual
● Carbon offsetting ● Sustainable Finance Market Outlook – biannual
● Clean energy procurement ● Europe PPA Price Survey – biannual
● Disclosures & targets alphabet soup ● PPA Deal Tracker – monthly
● Accessing sustainable finance ● Covid-19 Sustainability Indicators – monthly
1
Sustainability data hub – bnef.com
Available data tools
• Sustainable finance
• Sustainable debt
• Sustainability-linked debt
• Power purchasing
• Corporate PPAs
• U.S. Utility PPAs
• PPA fair value calculator
• Supply chain
• Supplier revenue
• Customer spend
• Automakers
• Automaker targets
• Automaker analysis tool
• Automaker EV exposure scores
• Targets, circular economy & more
• Science-based targets
• RE100
• Circular economy policy database
• Corporate power emissions model
• Digital industry projects & partnerships
• Renewable owners & financial participants
• Renewable project carbon impact
Source: BloombergNEF. Link (web | terminal)
2
Global corporate clean power
purchasing continues to rise
Global Corporate PPA Volumes, by region
Annual volume (GW) Cumulative volume (GW)
19.6
20
14.9 75
2.6
15 13.6 60
2.0
2.1 45
10 2.3 4.8
6.2 15.8 30
4.7 4.3
5 2.3 1.3 9.1
1.0 0.8 8.1 15
0.1 0.3 0.3 3.4 3.9
0 2.5 0
2010 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
YTD
AMER EMEA APAC Cumulative
Source: Bloomberg NEF Note: Only offsite PPAs included in volume charts. APAC PPA volumes include estimates; regional volumes chart (top left) includes
estimated APAC deals, but technology and offtaker charts include only reported APAC PPAs. Data is through September 2020.
3Although the U.S. is having a slightly
less successful year so far
U.S. corporate PPAs, by technology
Annual (GW) Cumulative (GW)
15 13.6 45
12 36
9 8.5 8.0 27
6.6
6 18
3.4 4.3
2.4 3.3 5.7
3 1.5 1.0 5.6 9
0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 4.2
1.4 2.4 1.7 2.6
0 0
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Wind Solar Other Cumulative YTD
Source: Bloomberg NEF Note: Only offsite PPAs included in the charts. Data is through September 2020.
4APAC corporate procurement options
are improving, but slowly
Market Renewable share Retail choice? RECs available? Net metering? Onsite PPA? Offsite PPA?
(ex. hydro)
Australia 17% State-dependent Yes No Yes Yes
China 9% Province- Yes Yes Yes Province-
dependent dependent
India 9% State-dependent Yes State-dependent Yes Yes
Indonesia 9% No No Yes Yes No
Japan 10% Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Malaysia 4% No No Yes Yes No
Philippines 14% Yes In progress Yes Yes No
Singapore 3% Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
South Korea No data In progress In progress Yes In progress In progress
Thailand 12% No No No Yes No
Vietnam 1% No No Yes Yes In progress
Source: BloombergNEF
5South Korea is paving the way for RE100
with its pilot programme for REGOs
Green tariff Investment Onsite generation PPA
• Consumers pay • Consumers can • Consumers set • Consumers can
a premium invest in up renewable sign direct
when domestic generation power purchase
purchasing renewable capacity for agreements
electricity from energy projects self- with a third
Korea Electric and obtain consumption party that owns
Power (Kepco). REGOs for the renewable
The premium portion of generation
paid by generation that capacity.
consumers is has not
100% received a
reinvested in renewable
renewable energy
energy by certificate under
Kepco. RPS.
Source: BloombergNEF
6This could unlock a lot of potential Over 50
RE100
demand from RE100 members members
Source: BloombergNEF
7Europe is already having a record year,
despite Covid-19
EMEA corporate PPAs, by technology
Annual (GW) Cumulative (GW)
6 14
5 4.8 12
4 0.8 10
8
3 2.6
2.3 6
2 3.8 4
0.8 1.1 1.1 1.8
1 0.5 2.0
0.2 1.0 2
0.6 1.0 0.8
0 0
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
YTD
Solar Wind Other Cumulative
Source: Bloomberg NEF Note: Only offsite PPAs included in the charts. Data is through September 2020.
8These volumes are being boosted by a
strong RE100 presence
Legend
Europe projected renewable shortfall for RE100 members
Projected renewable shortfall for selected RE100 members (TWh) Renewable electricity
120.0 shortfall
120
100.0 Onsite generation
100 (contracted)
80.0 Certificate purchases
80 (estimated)
70.
65.
59. 85.
80.
75.
60.0 Offsite
22.30. 52.
45.
38.
13. solar 33
60
30.4 38.0 45.5 52.6 59.7 65.0 70.2 75.3 80.3 85.3
2.4084056702
(contracted)
2.4 13.0 22.8
40.0
Offsite wind
40
(contracted)
20.0
20 Electricity demand
0.0
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
0 Renewable electricity
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 demand
Source: BloombergNEF,
Source: BloombergNEF, The Climate Group,
Bloomberg company
Terminal, sustainability
The Climate reports sustainability
Group, company Note: Certificate purchases are assumed to step down 10% each year. Onsite
reports
generation and contracted wind and solar purchases remain flat through 2030. Regional breakdown of shortfall estimated based on each company’s share of revenue
by region. Electricity demand and renewable electricity demand don’t intersect in 2030, as some companies have targets extending out past 2030
9Market success in Spain and the
Nordics stems from competitive pricing
Onshore wind PPA pricing for the base case compared, Europe 1H 2020
EUR/MWh (nominal)
60
50 49.7
44.2 46.5
40 42.7
37.5
30 30.5 31.0 31.5 31.8
20
Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Spain Netherlands Germany Poland U.K.
Average price (EUR/MWh), nominal
Solar PV PPA pricing for the base case compared, Europe 1H 2020
EUR/MWh (nominal)
60
52.3
50 48.3 49.3
46.5
42.0 42.5
40 39.3 39.3
35.3
30
Spain Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany Poland Netherlands U.K.
Average price (EUR/MWh), nominal
Source: BloombergNEF, Zeigo, survey participants. Note: No solar PPAs have been signed in Finland or Norway to date.
10To secure further demand, innovation is needed 11
Our sustainability indicators have
stayed strong through the pandemic
Covid-19 indicators: sustainability
Metric Frequency Snapshot: August
Decarbonization activities
Corporate PPA volumes Monthly Companies announced 2.2GW of deals in August, the second-highest month to date.
European PPA fair value prices Monthly Prices across all markets were higher than pre-pandemic levels, with the exception of Italy.
Voluntary carbon offsets Monthly Offset retirements drop again in August, but still up 40% from 2019 year-to-date.
ESG fund performance, ETF flows Monthly Europe ESG Leaders Index outperforming peers by over 10%. Net inflows into ESG funds just
miss $4 billion mark – higher than any month in 2019.
Green bonds, green loans Monthly Green bonds and loans both trail 2019 issuance year-to-date.
Sustainability bonds, sustainability-linked loans Monthly Sustainability bond issuance jumps, off the back of major Alphabet announcement.
Sustainability-linked loan issuance remains inconsistent, but paces ahead of 2019.
Social & sustainable pandemic bonds Monthly Social and pandemic-themed bond issuance dropped significantly in August.
Corporate commitments
Science-based targets commitments Monthly New commitments drop slightly, to 33 firms, though annual volumes pace far ahead of 2019.
RE100 commitments Monthly Activity rebounds with five new RE100 goals set, though annual commitments still trail 2019.
Task Force on Climate-related Financial Monthly Monthly support dropped to 38 new companies in August, but activity continues to outpace
Disclosures (TCFD) supporters previous years, both on a monthly and annual basis.
Source: BloombergNEF Note: Green indicates neutral or positive impacts; yellow indicates some negative impacts; red indicates mostly negative impacts.
12Post-lockdown, corporate sustainability
engagement also looks positive
Survey: how is sustainability practice in your business affected by the pandemic in these areas?
Net impact (%) Lockdown Post-lockdown
Investor perception 122% 33%
Sustainable financing -8% 2 7%
Decarbonization activities -12% 3 16%
Supply chain engagement -13% 4 26%
Ambition of sustainability strategy -16% 5 31%
Executive access -30% 6 32%
Budget -52% 7 -11%
Source: BloombergNEF, Smart Energy Decisions Note: Green indicates a net-positive response from survey participants, red indicates a net-negative response.
13Generally, global corporate demand for
clean energy looks very strong
Global projected renewable shortfall for RE100 members
TWh
400
350
300
250
200 199 224
154 176
92 112 132
150 35 54 73
19 27
100 5
48
50
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Wind (contracted) Solar (contracted) Certificate purchases
Onsite generation Renewable shortfall Electricity demand
Renewable electricity demand
Source: BloombergNEF, The Climate Group, company sustainability reports Note: Certificate purchases are assumed to step down 10% each year. Onsite
generation and contracted wind and solar purchases remain flat through 2030. Regional breakdown of shortfall estimated based on each company’s share of revenue
by region. Electricity demand and renewable electricity demand don’t intersect in 2030, as some companies have targets extending out past 2030.
14Science Based Targets membership is
also growing twice as fast as last year
Projected emission reductions from science-based target members
Annual scope 1 and 2 emissions reductions (MtCO2e) Other
2020 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Consumer
Discretionary
Communications
-20
-39
-59 Industrials
-78
-97 Consumer Staples
-116
-133
-150 Materials
-167
-184
-201 Utilities
Source: BloombergNEF, SBTi Note: SBT membership is for all companies that have set or committed to setting a target.
15Supply chains will unlock the next source
of clean energy demand
Global Supplier exposure, by revenue dependency (y-axis), number of customer relationships (x-
axis) and absolute revenues (bubble size)
Revenue dependency (%)
100%
Suppliers to
80% strengthen
sustainability practice $30B
60%
40%
$15B
20%
0% $5B
0 10 20 30 40 50
AMER EMEA APAC Customer relationships
Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg Terminal Note: Chart is based on Bloomberg’s SPLC function, and includes tier 1 suppliers only.
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