HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA - Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 - Victoria University ...
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HE MOANA
PUKEPUKE
E EKENGIA E TE
WAKA
Navigating choppy
waters: Te Herenga
Waka to 2025
11
CONTENTS
Arataki 3
Guide 3
Preface 5
Whakarāpopototanga 6
Summary 6
Recommendations 7
Ngā Herenga 7
Anamata 8
The time to come or future 8
Ā tātou Punga 11
Our anchors 11
Pae tawhiti 13
The distant horizon 13
Ngā Au 15
The currents 15
Whakamahere 20
Charting our way 20
The winner takes all 21
Government takes credit 22
Two speed NZ 23
Hidden economy 24
Wind-tunnelling 25
Ngā Herenga 28
Design principles 28
Te Whakatere i Ngā Waka 33
Navigating our waka 33
Whakapaunga 34
Conclusion 34
Bibliography 35
Appendix one: Ngā Kaupapa Mahi 36
Arataki
GUIDE
This report is a product of the University Futures scenarios for the future based on workshops with staff
workstream. It aims to examine the future context for and students, and an overview of the findings of those
the Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington workshops.
and identify opportunities for strategic positioning of
Ngā Herenga sets out in detail the key design
the organisation to 2025.
principles that we will apply when determining the
The workstream was charged with answering the question course of our flotilla of waka, and offers many examples
‘How can we foster a thriving university that recognises of how we can give effect to these principles.
and reflects our values and iho given the significant
Te Whakatere i Ngā Waka explores how we should
uncertainties we face?’. This work took place in a context
‘navigate our waka’ by using Ngā Kāpehu tools to
framed by the definition of a university found in the New
guide the next steps on our journey.
Zealand Education and Training Act, and the high level
commitments of Te Herenga Waka–Victoria University of Whakapaunga concludes the report drawing together
Wellington Strategic Plan. the key themes and offering a direction for us to follow
through our choppy waters.
This report is intended to provide transparency to the
University community about our progress. It shows how Appendix one: Ngā kaupapa mahi describes how the
the work stream of the resilience programme is taking University Futures workstream connects to the wider
account of input of staff and students. university resilience programme.
This report is organised into ten sections. This report is complemented by three standalone reports,
The Horizon Scan, Scenarios and Methods.
Whakarāpopototanga provides a summary of this
report and an overview of our key findings, including The Horizon Scan builds on Ngā Au by offering a wider
our recommendations and Ngā Herenga, the principles range of information and research sources covering
which should guide the creation of our collective the impacts of COVID-19, wider economic, social and
future. environmental trends, the range of models mooted for
universities and the role that futures studies can play.
Anamata describes the ‘time to come or future’. This
section provides an overview of the methodologies The Scenarios report provides extended descriptions of
used to prepare this report and key information on the the scenarios summarised in the Whakamahere section.
level of participation across the University community. The Methods report explains the process we followed to
Ā tātou Punga describes our anchors for our address the project question.
collective waka. This section connects this mahi to
the University’s strategic plan and the role defined for
universities in the Education Act.
Pae tawhiti describes ‘the distant horizon’ that staff
and students think our waka should head toward. This
section sets out the key themes from the focus groups
with almost 1,000 staff and students exploring their
desires and aspirations for Te Herenga Waka.
Ngā Au describes ‘the currents’ that our waka travel
on. This section presents a summary of the results of
the drivers survey, horizon scan and system map to
give context to our work.
Whakamahere is an attempt to ‘chart our way’ by
describing various ways that our journey through
our choppy seas may unfold. It presents a set of four
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 3
PREFACE
Te Herenga Waka literally means
the gathering of canoes and is
the Māori name of the University.
Our University community is like a
flotilla embarking on a journey into
unknown waters, our new strategic
context.
We began this journey in the context
of an unprecedented ‘lockdown’. The
COVID-19 pandemic is a ‘once in a
100 years’ disruption to society and
the economy, and its effects are only
beginning to be felt locally, nationally
and globally.
Yet the pandemic is one of many herculean challenges This deeply participatory process during a time of
that societies face. The climate crisis, geopolitical change, pressure affirmed that many aspects of our pre-COVID
structural discrimination, demographic change and thinking remain valid. Our Strategic Plan’s vision and
accelerating technological developments all demand aspirations still hold, and a commitment to the idea of
different solutions from our communities, businesses and Te Herenga Waka as a global-civic university remains.
government. However, there are also changes we will need to make if
we are to thrive in the future.
Universities are no exception. As our Strategic Plan
notes we have great strengths. Our graduates make an This project was delivered by a team of academic and
enormous contribution to social and economic life of New professional staff who came together to share information
Zealand, the Asia-Pacific region and the world, and our about their functional areas of the University, contributed
staff and research play an important role in addressing the a range of passions and interests and challenged many
great problems of our age. assumptions. We formed during the midst of the COVID-19
lockdown and developed our team norms virtually.
But the pandemic has amplified challenges that we
all recognise. Our financial sustainability, the agility of The members of the University Futures workstream would
our processes and the way we organise how we work like to thank all of you who gave their time so willingly to
together are increasingly stressed and not always fit contribute to this report. We trust we have given justice to
for purpose. Our collective commitment to collegial your many insightful contributions.
relationships is a great strength, but we need to
Professor Wendy Larner
complement them with effective processes and systems.
University Futures team members: Lara Andrews, Dr
We have an opportunity to shape our future. We have
Emily Beausoleil, Talya Coates, Professor Stephen
done this multiple times since our establishment in 1897
Cummings, Associate Professor Louise Dixon, Jonathan
and can do this again. Some decisions are ours, and some
Flutey, Associate Professor Meegan Hall, Andrew
will be taken by other actors in the system of which the
Jackson, Heather Kirkwood, Brenden Mischewski,
University is a part. There are many options before us to
Lincoln North, Rhonda Thomson, Andrew Wilks
chart a different course that recognises our distinctive
strengths and contributions. External Advisor: Professor Keri Facer
This report is very much ‘our view’ of the future. We
explored the literature on changing models of tertiary
education, drew on the input of more than one thousand
staff and students, and tested and retested our findings
with our internal university community.
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 4
Whakarāpopototanga
SUMMARY
This report is a challenge to the University and its widely with the University community through focus
stakeholders to take ownership of our capacity to shape groups, workshops, survey responses and suggestions,
our collective future through to 2025. It is a high-level and employed a range of futures methodologies (see
document that sets out our aspirations for the future, Anamata).
rather than an attempt to tightly prescribe what actions
or steps we need to take to deliver on those aspirations. Our analysis was anchored by the roles defined
for universities through legislation, and our iho and
Our key recommendation is the adoption of Ngā Herenga, distinctiveness as expressed in our Strategic Plan. We can
a set of ten design principles that describe how we should understand our specific identity as an embedded global-
approach developing specific responses to the future. civic university that has a distinctive, visible, progressive
Ngā Herenga calls us to aspire to live our values, such as research and education proposition that has appeal both
kaitiakitanga, rangatiratanga and whanaungatanga, realise
our goals to be place-based, bicultural and regionally
connected, and work in ways that are integrated, agile
and creative.
We also recommend that the University make use of the
systems map and scenarios that we have developed.
The systems map sets out our wider context, and the
scenarios will assist staff to plan by testing choices we
are considering. These scenarios also offer a way to
understand the range of risks and contingencies that need
to be managed in our planning. There is value in asking
ourselves how the choices we are considering move us
toward a desired destination and away from our existing
weaknesses, how resilient these choices might be in the
face of disruption, and how others might respond to our
decisions.
These design principles and recommendations arose
from a deeply participatory futures process. We engaged
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 5
international and nationally. We express our contribution RECOMMENDATIONS
as a global–civic university with our marae at our heart
We recommend that Te Herenga Waka
(see Ā tātou Punga).
1. Support the aspirations of the Strategic Plan by
This report is the product of extensive effort and input
adopting and embedding Ngā Herenga as the guiding
from our internal community of staff and students. You told
principles for the next five years.
us that you are deeply committed to this place. Through
almost ninety focus groups, you expressed common 2. Utilise the systems map contained in Ngā Au and
concerns and aspirations. We organised these into scenarios summarised in Whakamahere to inform
four core commitments (He Tumu, Hāpai, Herenga and future organisational decision making and operational
Manaakitanga) that are fundamental to what we design for planning.
the future (see Pae tawhiti).
3. Adopt Ngā Kāpehu and test any proposals for future
We prepared this report in the context of an change against the four questions set out in this
unprecedented challenge to the University and society decision-making tool.
writ large. The COVID-19 pandemic has major impacts, but
it is just one of the major challenges faced by universities
and societies locally, nationally and globally (see Ngā Au). NGĀ HERENGA
We do not know how our journey will unfold. We worked
Being place-based Being integrated
with the University community to develop four scenarios Demonstrating kaitiakitanga Enabling agility
that describe plausible and coherent accounts of possible
futures. The scenarios offer cues for our planning and help Valuing rangatiratanga Fostering creativity,
us think through the risks and contingencies that need to knowledge creation
be managed. They also offered us the opportunity to test and innovation
our design principles to see if they were robust in multiple Centring wellbeing Being inclusive/
futures (see Whakamahere). welcoming
The design principles, Ngā Herenga, are expanded upon Encouraging Creating a flexible,
in the section Te Whakatere i Ngā Waka. This section whanaungatanga fit for purpose
presents a detailed explanation of each principle and environment
makes suggestions for practical steps that give effect to
Each of these principles is discussed more fully in
them.
the section Te Whakatere i Ngā Waka.
We offer examples of how these principles can be put
into effect such as embedding experiential learning
and kaupapa Maori in our degrees, measuring our
workloads more equitably, supporting cross-disciplinary
collaborations, and creating a Civic Hub that enables
creative solutions to society’s challenges.
This report is the main output of the University Futures
work stream of the Te Herenga Waka Resilience
Programme. This programme aims to enhance our
resilience and help us thrive (see Appendix one: Ngā
Kaupapa Mahi).
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 6
Anamata
THE TIME TO COME OR FUTURE
We try to describe the future, not because we seek to
predict, but because the act of forecasting helps us
to invent and move toward a ‘preferred future’ (Dator,
2002). While understanding what might come can help
us to manage and plan, we also have considerable
agency to actively shape a dynamic and emergent
reality (Facer, Learning Futures - Education, technology
and social change, 2011).
There are a variety of approaches to anticipating and
envisioning the future (Bell, 2003), (Popper, 2008),
(Government Office for Science, 2017). Futures thinking
looks for signs of change and macro factors that might
shape a range of possible futures, often drawing on
diverse data sources and stakeholders (DPMC, 2020).
‘The future is not something that is
done to us, but an ongoing process
in which we can intervene’
Horizon scanning. We gathered information about
Keri Facer emerging trends and developments to build a picture
Professor of Educational Futures of how these might impact on the University.
Driver mapping. We used a survey of staff and students
to crowdsource the trends and factors that may drive
Understanding the future is not untethered from our change in the University’s operating environment.
cultural context. While Western ideas about the future
Visioning. We offered a mix of DIY and facilitated
tend to orientate as ‘ahead’, in Te Ao Māori the individual
workshops, so staff and students had a platform to
is ‘conceptualised as travelling backward in time to the
describe their desired future(s).
future, with the present unfolding in front as a continuum
into the past’ (Rameka, 2016). Scenarios. We worked with staff with expertise in
relevant areas to develop stories that describe
This distinction was emblematic of the diversity of
alternative ways the external environment might
perspectives we sought, which in turn was reflected in
develop in the future.
the range of methods and engagement models that we
employed. Wind-tunnelling. We worked with focus groups of staff
to test the waka in the contextual scenarios, to gain a
Throughout the process, we were committed to a deeply
better understanding of the decisions we should make
participatory approach. The methods we employed
to ensure we thrive.
were intended to provide multiple opportunities for the
Te Herenga Waka community to shape the future of the The interrelationships between each element of our
organisation. engagement approach and key facts and figures relating
to our engagement approach are set out in Figure 1.
The range of futures thinking methodologies we
employed included:
Systems mapping. We documented the components,
boundaries and relationships in the system of which
Te Herenga Waka is a part.
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 7
Figure 1: Te Herenga Futures: Overview of the engagement approach
TE HERENGA WAKA FUTURES: THE PHASE ONE PROCESS
GATHERING ANTICIPATING TESTING CRYSTALLISING
Horizon scan
Driver analysis
Scenarios Windtunnelling Design principles
Visions for the future
System mapping
A combination of Workshops with Workshop with Descriptions of the
desktop research, expert informants staff and students preferred design
surveying of staff that brought together that contrasted principles that were
and students, and their domain the desired futures most likely to deliver
workshops to knowledge with with the scenarios the preferred
identify desired the results of the to understand the future(s)
futures gathering phase implications
Figure 2: Key engagement statistics
86
FOCUS
1000+
STAFF AND
STUDENTS
27
SURVEY
GROUPS ENGAGED RESPONSES
82
PAPERS AND
5
SCENARIO
REPORTS WORKSHOPS
REVIEWED
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 8
Ā tātou Punga
OUR ANCHORS
The University’s Strategic Plan (Te Herenga Waka, 2020)
and the role provided for universities in legislation (PCO,
2020) are Ā tātou Punga or our anchors.
The process of imagining and beginning to create a
different future for Te Herenga Waka is firmly connected
to our iho and distinctiveness and the role of universities
in the tertiary education system of Aotearoa New Zealand.
Any recommendations emerging from this work will be in
keeping with these two anchors.
Our Strategic Plan reminds us about the prominent role
we play in Wellington and beyond, the ambition, relevance
and international significance of our research, our
commitment to being values-based, fostering inclusivity
and diversity, and the trusted external partnerships we
sustain (Te Herenga Waka, 2020).
Our vision is that Te Herenga Waka—
Victoria University of Wellington Our other key anchor is the role defined for all New
will be a world-leading capital city Zealand universities in the Education and Training Act
university and one of the great 2020. That Act of Parliament defines the characteristics of
global-civic universities with our universities as:
marae at our heart. they are primarily concerned with more advanced
learning, the principal aim being to develop intellectual
independence
This iho is further defined by our heritage and by our their research and teaching are closely interdependent
tūrangawaewae. At our University, the traditions of British and most of their teaching is done by people who are
‘red-brick’ civic universities mingle with mātauranga Māori active in advancing knowledge
and tikanga Māori. The centrality of our marae links us they meet international standards of research and
to the ancestors of our land and ties us all to the iwi of teaching
Aotearoa and to the wider Pacific.
they are a repository of knowledge and expertise
The name of our marae—Te Herenga Waka—is also now
they accept a role as critic and conscience of society
the Māori name of the University. Our wharenui, which is
called Te Tumu Herenga Waka, meaning the mooring post a wide diversity of teaching and research, especially at
of canoes. Symbolically, the marae and wider university a higher level, that maintains, advances, disseminates,
are spaces where everyone, no matter where they are and assists the application of, knowledge, develops
from, can ‘hitch their canoe’ and belong. intellectual independence, and promotes community
learning.
Figure 3 sets out the characteristics of our distinctiveness,
which in the Strategic Plan are expressed in terms of the Together these anchors provide reference points for how
way we work (the middle layer of the figure) and what is we face the challenges and opportunities before us and
valued by our staff, students and communities (the outer for any changes we consider.
layer of the figure).
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 9
Figure 3: Our capital city university difference
Capital thinking. Globally minded
Ma i te iho ki te Pae
Global-cyclic
university with our
marae at our heart Processes
that empower
our people
Lived values
Institutional
Research- agility
enriched Commiting to
learning sustainability
Governing Students as and wellbeing
for the future partners
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025
Living and making the Honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi
Wellington vibe
Being
Living through creativity
Source: (Te herenga Waka, 2020) Asia-Pacicfic
globally
minded
10Pae tawhiti
THE DISTANT HORIZON
Pae tawhiti, the distant horizon, speaks to the desires “It is our role to make a difference for
and aspirations that staff and students have for
Te Herenga Waka. We sought to provide a platform for
our students, our region, globally, by
a broad and diverse range of people to voice their ideas the research we do and who and how
for the future design of Te Herenga Waka in their own we educate people”
words.
Staff member
The commitment and engagement by staff and students Senior Leaders Forum
was inspiring. Almost 1,000 academic and professional
staff and members of representative student groups
contributed through 86 facilitated and ‘DIY’ focus groups.
HĀPAI
We heard many of the same concerns and aspirations
Te Herenga Waka is a university that uplifts its staff
across this diverse group. We have woven these 10
and students, both caring for wellbeing and sharing
themes (see Figure 4) into four core commitments (He
meaningful power in decision-making.
Tumu, Hāpai, Herenga, and Manaakitanga) that will be
fundamental to what we design for the future. Hāpai conveys a sense of uplifting and caring for
people. Participants aspired to greater Rangatiratanga,
HE TUMU Empowering and Horizontal Leadership and emphasised
a commitment to Student and Staff Wellbeing beyond the
Te Herenga Waka is globally distinguished as a civic
classroom.
university that responds to the needs of our local and
global communities and the challenges we face together
in our quality research, teaching and engagement from a
HERENGA
place-based perspective. The University community is a living eco-system that is
connected, integrated and declogged, actively fostering
He Tumu refers to the hitching post we use to hold our
relationships, collaboration, agility, creativity, knowledge
waka in place. Participants expressed the importance of
creation and innovation.
being Placed-based strengthening our connections to
our place in Aotearoa and a commitment to Relevance, Herenga expresses the intertwined connections and ties
Responsibility and Kaitiakitanga. that we share. Participants valued approaches to work that
are Consistent, Integrated and Clear, decision-making
that is Agile and Declogged, a willingness to be Creative,
“I want to be part of a transparent Innovative and Distinctive and systems that enable
and accountable institution, where us to be Connected, Collaborative and that embody
I know what and how decisions Whanauatanga.
are taken, and I can be part of that MANAAKITANGA
process”
The University is accessible, inclusive and welcoming, and
Staff member offers flexibility/options for those working or learning here.
Health Services Research Centre
Manaakitanga embodies the notions of hospitality,
support, kindness and generosity. Participants were
committed to the idea of an accessible public institution
that provides a welcoming and inclusive experience,
and ensuring how we work and the technology we use is
flexible enough so they are fit for purpose.
These aspirations provided us with clear reference
points as we developed options for the future (see Te
Whakatere).
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 11Figure 4: Main focus group themes
Flexible options Place-based Accessible, Inclusive Rangatiratanga, Staff and Student
and Welcoming Empowering Well-being
and Horizontal
Leadership
The ways we work We invest in and We need to be a home University staff and The student experience
and the technology showcase Aotearoa away from home – for students have greater needs to extend beyond
available to us should New Zealand focusing everyone. We should autonomy and the classroom and cater
be varied to enable on local stewardship, be accessible to all as meaningful roles in to the unique needs of
fit-for-purpose research, New Zealand’s a public institution, not decision-making. High different undergraduate
learning and working distinctiveness and a business. We need to levels of transparency and postgraduate
environments. real biculturalism provide a welcoming and accountability cohorts. We need to live
that honours Te whole of university are apparent to build our values and provide
Tiriti o Waitangi experience, including trust. a safe, uplifting and
and indigenises the multiple world views. empathetic environment
University. that values staff and
students here.
Agile and declogged Relevance, Connected, Creative, Innovative Consistent,
Responsibility and Whanaungatanga, and Distinctive Integrated and Clear
Kaitiakitanga Collaborative
The University and We should be University structures We need to be bold We need to show
people within it need sustainable in all our and processes and exciting and free clarity and consistency
to be able to act and practices. We should actively support and to generate creative in our approach to
respond quickly. conduct relevant and are conducive to solutions and new workload, teaching
We need to simplify useful research that building relationships ideas. We need to build standards, supports and
and reduce layers of highlights the unique and transdisciplinary, a reputation for being communication. Student
complexity. aspects of New faculty and staff-student distinctive in what we experience across
Zealand and shares partnerships. do and generate pride faculties should be of a
them with the world. through doing what we consistently high quality.
A focus on enabling do well.
the entrepreneurship
of staff to respond to
community needs is
warranted.
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 12Ngā Au
THE CURRENTS
The direction that our flotilla of waka take will be “I want a University that is plural,
influenced by te au o te moana, the currents of the sea in
which we travel.
non-discriminatory, at all levels.”
We sought to understand these currents by documenting Student leaders
our context (see Systems Mapping), defining the drivers
of change to that context (see Horizon Scanning) and
exploring research and analysis on the implications for HORIZON SCAN
universities (see The Future of Universities).
We used horizon scanning to identify and understand the
SYSTEMS MAPPING emerging signals of change in our operating environment.
Such scans are used for detecting early signs of important
A systems map was used to document the context
developments (OECD, 2020), and particularly useful when
within which Te Herenga Waka operates (see Figure 5).
the pace of change makes past data an unreliable basis
Such maps are useful in showing the boundaries and
for future action (Hammoud and Nash, 2014).
components of a system at a point in time, particularly for
capturing the uncertainty, complexity and unpredictability Literature scans, workshops and surveying of staff
of complex systems (Hammoud and Nash, 2014). and students identified over 120 societal, political,
technological, economic, environmental and legislative/
Desktop research and key informant interviews were used
regulatory drivers of change.
to develop the map. It demonstrates how the achievement
of the objectives of Te Herenga Waka is dependent on Clustering and review of this ‘long list’ identified a
numerous relationships and elements in our external common set of high impact – and highly uncertain –
environment. It is not a complete map of ‘everything’ but drivers. These nine driver clusters (see Table 1) covered a
rather a representation of the most influential elements. broad span of opportunities, challenges, trends, persistent
problems, emerging issues, risks and threats, locally,
The systems map provides a baseline against which we
nationally and globally.
can understand the ecosystem for future changes. This
resource ensures that we consider all parts of the system Table 1: Clusters of drivers of change
that might affect our future as we develop the scenarios
National economy/ Immigration policies
and that we know which parts of the system we have to
unemployment
engage with to ensure successful changes.
The social contract and The future of work, including
generational differences academic work
“We need society to see us beyond a Future technologies Competition
degree factory by being inspirational
Structure of the tertiary sector Government priorities
in the core business – teaching and
Health and wellbeing Geopolitics
research. We need to identify and
focus on our core activities. We need Natural disasters (including
the effects of climate change)
to ask what is it we are here to do?
and then do those things really, These drivers were then used to inform the development of
really well” stories about the future or scenarios (see Whakamahere).
Staff member
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 13Systems Map
Figure 5: Te Herenga Waka in context - mapping our system
FTE’s publications and partnerships
Systems Map
TEC Research
Taught Post Masters & PhD
PhD
Graduate Students Rankings
Post grad
Students
Crown Capital Coast
Research Health SAC Under grad
PTE’s International Online
funding Counselling ITO’s Wananga Learning
International Universities
Fund Domestic platforms
Booster Royal
Society Other NZ edX
PBRF Universities Polytech
External Conference
SSIF Research
Research Student & Work visas
Partners Funding Funding Under grad
CRI’s NZEI Students Pastoral Care of international
(Nat/Int) Students Code
Vic (EFTS) Student Exchange/Mobility
Foundation Unions
Marsden Agreements
MOE TEU
Tertiary
Export Education Levy
Callaghan Sector Whānau
MBIE Educ NZ Philantrohropic NZUSA National Student Index (NSI)
Funding PGSA Rest of Student Services Levy
VUW
Research Malaghan NZ schools
Investment Economic Wellington
Scholarships
MFAT Fund Research Local/ Events
IRD
Institute Regional Māori Business Zealandia
ASEAN Antartic Network
schools
Research Secondary Taihonoa
Central Chairs Centre partners Te Papa
Schools Pasifika Wellington/NZ
MFE Government Iwi/Māori
External Organisations Arts & Culture
Research Organisations Organisational
International
Science Institutions & Institutions Wellington Arts &
Treasury Policy Partnerships MacDiarmid Transport Mana
Challenges Culture Events &
Living Standards Institute Systems Whenua Festivals
Framework MetService International
Alumni
Key local/ NZSO
Procurement Policies airlines
regional AI/VR Tech
GWRC WCC Experience Wellington Retail &
airport
relationships
Wellington Hospitality Park Road Post
NGO’s/ Domestic International
businesses Production
NFP’s airlines Film & Gaming
Environmental Local & Services Outputs Industry
Regulation/Legislation Court Regional Sustainablity The Weta
Health Teaching Cave Publications
Education Act Councils Faculties Network
Sector Research & Learning Sport NZ
& Schools,
Te Tiriti o Waitangi Programmes Climate Centres for
Emergency Centres &
Leader Coalition Media Asia Pacific
Pastoral Care Code Services Public Wellington
Institutes
Start Ups Excellence
(Police, Fire, UniVentures
Crown Entities Act Ambulance) Bio-medical Service UN Development Goals
Sector Student
Accomm Authorities
Public Finance Act Commercial Beijing Film
Wellington Uni Operations Insurance
Ventures Academy Asia/Pacific
WREMO Public Professional Companies
Services
Student & Everton Te Puni
Private Exchange
Academic CAD Comms/Marketing Dev Office
Wellngton Key Agents
UNZ Services Accomm Sector
NZQA PVC’s Universities
Service (commercial) international
DVCE
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025
Providers Landlords
CUAP
relationships
DVCM Rec Centre
Library CSIRO
COO Residential
Quality Governance Digital Consultants,
Research Provost rental market
Campus Infrastructure Contractors,
AQA Assurance Office VC CFO OHS Campus Banks
Care Subcontractors International
Tenants
& Suppliers Research
AVC Academic HR
ITS Diplomatic centres
Pasifika Board
Physical Community
Building Code NZ
Auditors Property Infrastructure
Sust Services (Buildings & National Building Standards
Council facilities) - Earthquake
VUWSA PaMI
Procurement Policy
Worksafe
THW Strategic Plan
Key
Organisation/Group of orgs/ Te Herenga Waka Connections
Sector Students
Financial
Infrastructure Tertiary Sector
People & Knowledge
Regulation/Legislation/Policy Central Government
Te Herenga Waka constraint Constraint/influence
Public Sector and NGO
Private Sector (commercial)
Key relationships
Note:
14
This is not intended to be a comprehensive capture of the micro-system and all its components – Its purpose in this phase
(WS7) is to identify the key influencing components in the system as ‘groups’ and ‘types’ as a static representation of the
external macro-system we operate within.THE FUTURE OF UNIVERSITIES The COVID-19 pandemic and its immediate aftermath
stimulated extensive reflection on the future of the
As well as identifying drivers of change, the horizon scan
university sector internationally. Demand shocks, as
gave us a sense of how others were thinking about the
border restrictions preventing international students
future, including how universities internationally were
from travelling, and supply shocks, as social distancing
approaching their new context.
requirements forced changes to teaching and learning,
The material that follows is intended to provide context to challenged basic assumptions about the operating model,
the distinctive approach that Te Herenga Waka chooses to finances and the roles of staff.
take to shape its own destination. The key themes are not
Rapid uptake of remote working techniques and the
offered as some kind of prescription, but rather a guide to
relative success of the emergency shift to online teaching
how others think about the difficult issues the University
and learning appeared to accelerate the convergence of
grapples with.
expectations about what the future of university education
Literature on change in the tertiary sector was a particular might look like. The idea of education as a commodity that
focus of the horizon scan. This literature tended to focus can be consumed online, in bite-sized chunks, disconnected
on the expectations for the future of tertiary sector from a sense of place or academic community is increasingly
demand, structures and constraints, and the role and common. Winnowing of the sector as more prestigious
nature of universities in particular (see Table 2). institutions gain market share is an assumed outcome.
Table 2: The future of universities - key themes from The impending ‘death of universities’ is a recurrent theme.
the literature Perceptions that the organisational form is ill-suited to
an increasingly complex and globalised economic and
Products and services Organisational form social system are predominant. Comparisons with the
• Leaner, cheaper, stripped • New business and dynamism, societal impact, and financial success of ‘Big
back to what contributes financing models: private
directly to student learning sector-led/partnered
Tech’ companies are commonplace, notwithstanding the
role that basic research conducted in universities played
• Modularised, shorter • Mergers, partnerships,
privatisations and in their success (Mazzucato, 2013).
• Personalised, learner-
consolidation
centric Fraying of the social contract is an emerging issue. While
• High-quality smart spaces the expectations of societies have been historically
• Distant
enabling deep learning
variable, internally contradictory, and only ever partly
• Work-integrated where needed
attainable (Collini, 2018), many commentators point to
• Credentialed – academic • New models for staffing
– flexible, spanning
qualitatively different pressures. Changing demographics,
and practice competency
brought together institutions and teams, new expectations among younger people coupled with
different skills sought, heightened intergenerational inequality, the ubiquitous
• Focus on work-relevant
insecure
skills and competencies— nature of information, growing distrust of expertise and
plus communication, competing government priorities all place pressure on the
critical thinking and
social contract (Yankelovich, 2009).
systems thinking etc.
• Interdisciplinary The central question thus emerges – what value does a
university offer? These cumulative pressures suggest that
Technology Expectations
a debate over the value of our traditional higher education
• Digital • Reputation of individuals model is imminent. The selected examples of future
and organisations, via
• New technologies models of tertiary education captured in the full Horizon
credentials, matter more
revolutionising research Scan gives an overview of the parameters of this debate.
than tertiary institutions
and innovation – private
sector-led/partnered • High student and industry Some options offer the hope of new business models.
expectations - exceptional
• Big and deep data The unbundling of research, education, content, and
customer service
democratising research certification may mean that new business models and
demanded, aided by AI
and innovation
• Collaboration with industry, ways of engaging students will be at the heart of a
charities and citizen- prosperous future for universities (Dawson, 2013).
led initiatives to set and
crowd-fund the research This future is far from certain – nor undisputed. A rush to
question embrace technological determinism for undergraduate
• Reduced emphasis on education and to focus only on economic outcomes
published outputs avoids discussion about the complex roles and
• Available, open, responsibilities and breadth of activities undertaken by
continuous, lifelong and within a university.
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 15No one yet knows whether reducing a university to a Transparent and The institution not only has
smooth-running pedagogical machine will continue to accountable systems and processes for
allow scholarship to thrive—or whether it will simply put effectively measuring the
impacts and outcomes of its
universities out of business, replace scholar-teachers work beyond the academic,
with just teachers, and put back a whole generation of but also seeks the views of its
research (Wood, 2014). non-academic stakeholders
and uses the findings to inform
Our challenge is to create the kind of university envisaged and change what it does.
by our iho and values. What might a university not just of
Innovative methodologies Utilises social innovation and
the future, but for the future, look like? (Facer, 2014). other novel process; social
scientists are encouraged
THE IDEA OF “THE CIVIC UNIVERSITY” to help shape the way the
institution interacts with the
Our Strategic Plan commits Te Herenga Waka–Victoria world; collaborations are many
University of Wellington to being a global–civic university and varied, and initiated and
managed at an institutional
with our marae at our heart. level (MoUs etc).
Our conception of the global-civic role of the University Source: Goddard, et. al 2016.
owes much to the ideas explored by Goddard, et. al 2016
In the embedded state, a global-civic university has a
who suggest civic universities fall in a spectrum from
distinctive, visible, progressive research and education
embryonic, emerging, evolving to embedded. Building on
proposition that has appeal both international and
this work, an ‘embedded’ global-civic university has seven
nationally.
characteristics (see Table 3).
Adopting this specific aspiration helps us to articulate why
Table 3: The characteristics of an embedded civic the features that distinguish us from other universities (see
university
Table 4) matter.
Sense of purpose Conscious approach to
addressing societal problems
Table 4: What distinguishes Te Herenga Waka
and responding to need via
established partnerships and
mature dialogue. MARAE STRONG
PARTNERSHIPS
Active engagement Engagement taking place at AT OUR WITH WELLINGTON
HEART
multiple levels and seen as ANCHOR INSTITUTIONS
integral activity.
Sense of place The location of the institution
is integral to its identity, it is
viewed as an important asset GLOBAL/CIVIC A VALUES-BASED
by the local community, it DIFFERENTIATORS
physically blends within the
FOR BOTH ACADEMIC
UNIVERSITY
local built environment and is
seen as a ‘living laboratory’ for CONTENT AND MARKET THAT COULD
research.
BECOME AN
Holistic approach Delivering public value is seen INTERNATIONAL
as an integral component
of achieving excellence in OUR APPROACH TO BEACON
teaching and research and
successful engagement
RESEARCH POSITIONS FOR A ‘JUST
US TO SHARE THE
activity is valued as highly TRANSITION’
as success in other mission DISTINCTIVENESS
areas. OF AOTEAROA
Willing to invest Significant resources (human WITH THE WORLD.
and financial) are dedicated
to promoting linkages and Adopting a role as an embedded global-civic university
collaborations and to leverage
external funding; staff are presents an opportunity for Te Herenga Waka to be
incentivised via reward and globally distinguished as a truly place-based institution.
promotion criteria to engage;
there is an active policy to
recruit and develop ‘boundary
spanners’.
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 16Whakamahere
CHARTING OUR WAY
The currents we described above present both This four-quadrant model was used in a series of scenario
opportunities and challenges. By sketching out possible development workshops with staff and students. Leading
futures out to 2025 we can begin to understand and questions relating to the implications for skills needs
prepare for the future. and infrastructure requirements and how generational
differences, social policy and the governmental
The use of scenario is a common and tested approach
engagement with the world were discussed at each
for developing a long-term outlook to help prepare for
workshop.
possible eventualities, particularly when critical decisions
need to be made in an uncertain environment (Lindgren The results are presented below synthesising these
& Bandhold, 2003), (Amer, Diam, & Jetter, 2012), discussions.
(Wilkinson, 2013).
We tested the clustered drivers of change (see Table
THE WINNER TAKES ALL
1) within the project team to identify those that would This scenario explores how the future evolved in a context
quickly generate discussion about plausible futures. Our where the economy of Aotearoa New Zealand was
preferred candidates were the economic context and thriving, and the government was relatively hands-off.
government priorities. Through testing we refined these
to the four-quadrants presented in Figure 6. METRICS
Deliberately near-term scenarios to the year 2025 were GDP growth 3% per annum from 2022
used, rather than others that might be seen to develop National debt 45% (down from 53% in 2020)
over a longer period. These scenarios are not designed to
Unemployment 4%
be predictions of the future. They are each designed to be
plausible coherent accounts of possible futures. Population growth 2% per annum
Together they provide a broad range of possible futures Carbon levels rise as population growth more than
which provide us with cues for organisational strategic and offsets savings from more efficient technology
operational planning, helping stimulate an awareness of the
Air and water quality declined largely due to population
range of risks and contingencies that need to be managed.
growth and fewer restrictions on business activities
Figure 6: Contextual scenarios to 2025
A vaccine for COVID-19 was released in 2022. The
Return to economic national priority was economic growth as fears grew
growth and open borders
about the national debt which had reached $200 billion
in the same year. Strict border controls were quickly lifted,
and the Government pursued a deregulatory agenda to
Economic and
The winner The Government
immigration
takes it all takes credit stimulate growth.
Population growth was concentrated in the major urban
areas. The Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga “golden
Hands off Government Interventionist
government priorities government
triangle” grew fastest as loosening of planning rules
allowed the accelerated development of satellite towns
served mainly by the existing motorway network.
The growth in digital services, such as the outsourced
2 speed NZ Hidden economy provision of information, media and business functions
including human resources, finance etc., accelerated and
now dominated these activities.
Government relied on technology to solve a wide range
Ongoing recession of social and economic policy issues, including major
and restricted borders environmental challenges. Concerns about cyber security
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 17rose as the thriving digital economy attracted increasing The government borrowed significantly to invest in key
attacks from domestic and international actors. infrastructure such as massive flood protection works,
high-speed rail systems and the accelerated development
All facets of the economic life of the country were
of a national 5G network which was used to ensure a
characterised by high levels of competition. The tertiary
data-driven approach to improving health outcomes.
sector was no exception. Domestic and international
These initiatives reflected a consistently centralised model
competition led to market rationalisation with mergers,
of policy activity that was evident in other social and
specialisation or failure of providers. Competition was
economic spheres where Government acted to manage
also strong for research dollars with Government opting
activity.
to offer higher tax credits for applied research rather than
increasing research funding of universities. The major investment programme underpinned robust
economic growth, but the higher national debt was
The student population was increasingly competitive in
causing growing social concern. Critics linked the debt to
their focus and very results-oriented in their expectations
fears about the undue power of the state.
for qualifications. Inequality was a major issue with some
sectors in society investing heavily to attain significant The government responded by introducing a ‘citizens
advantages through their education. assembly’ to ensure the billions of investment go to the
“people’s priorities”. Government also introduced stringent
Providers were under significant pressure to demonstrate
low carbon policies. Businesses increasingly focused on
ongoing improvements in efficiency and impact for their
lobbying to get the Government to invest in their sector
qualifications and to show a rapid (if not immediate and
and to obtain targeted regulatory relief to reduce the
during education) return on the investment made by
increasing costs of doing business.
learners.
Economic growth was dominated by large public sector
Some universities that were unable to make the necessary
financed programmes. Globally business was increasingly
changes. One had already failed financially by 2025 and a
transnational. Strong regulatory protections mean that
Crown Commissioner appointed to wind up its operations.
many international businesses have to maintain a strong
Two more were rumoured to be on the brink.
local presence. Professional services and customer
GOVERNMENT TAKES CREDIT relationships were a particular focus of these regulations,
rather than manufacturing. The latter continued to shift to
This scenario explores how the future may evolve emerging economics, particularly India and Vietnam.
in a context where the economy of Aotearoa New
Zealand was thriving, and the government took a more The directive approach extended to the tertiary sector.
interventionist role. Funding for humanities, social sciences and environmental
studies was increased to align with the government’s
METRICS goal of building social and environmental capital for the
future. Students were expected to pay the full cost of
GDP growth 3% per annum from 2022
courses which are not aligned to government priorities.
National debt 60% Research investment was targeted at the priorities of the
Government.
Unemployment 6%
Students routinely sought further qualifications on leaving
Population growth 1% per annum
school and despite the Government funding priorities
Carbon levels decrease with significant tightening of many were prepared to take on significant personal debt
carbon targets as the payoff was considered obvious.
Environmental outcomes such as air and water quality Many students linked their studies to ambitions for work in
stable senior roles with the international employers operating in
the country, including those contracting to agencies. State
A programme of managed vaccination against COVID-19
servants were also a major market for higher education
was widely seen as emblematic of a distinctively New
as ambitious people looked for opportunities to progress
Zealand approach to managing the virus. This perception
their careers.
of effective government action led an increased social
licence for leadership by the state in many facets of
economic and social life.
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 18TWO SPEED NZ The life courses of New Zealanders diverged. People in
secure employment found it easier to recover financially.
This scenario explores how the future may evolve in a
Others looked to other ways to find success. It was much
context where the economy of Aotearoa New Zealand
harder for young people to explore the world through
was struggling, and the government was relatively hands-off.
overseas travel, so they now looked for new experiences
and a chance to earn money working on community farms
METRICS
in the regions. The regions were also perceived to be a
GDP negative growth 2% per annum; The economy is relative safe haven from urban COVID outbreaks.
now 10% smaller than it was in 2019
Only the wealthiest people could afford to take three or
National debt 53% more years to get an academic qualification. Traditional
Unemployment 14% universities that offered mainly campus-based learning
were seen as the preserve of rich domestic and
Population decline 1% per annum international students. Their social license weakened
Carbon levels fall as the population decreases and as they were seen as a contributor to social inequity.
people can afford to do less Research investments were tied to immediate business
results.
Environmental outcomes such as air and water quality
worsens as there is no resource to invest in pollution Deregulation saw many new tertiary providers enter
mitigation and remediation the market offering flexible, short-term vocational
training. Educational information aggregation services
Ongoing outbreaks of COVID 19 worldwide affected and education agents entered the market to help
global economic growth negatively. New Zealand sought prospective students discern which of the non-university
to balance the risks of renewed community transmission training providers would deliver what they say. These
of COVID-19 and the economic damage of disengagement options were attractive to the majority of people who
from the global economy. must balance the demands of employers with their
Strict border controls remained but relied on self- or learning plans.
employer-paid, pre travel COVID 19 testing quarantine.
International movement resumed but at subdued levels. HIDDEN ECONOMY
Many tourism businesses failed to make the transition This scenario explores how the future may evolve in a
away from high volume/low cost services. context where the economy of Aotearoa New Zealand
The reduced restrictions favored economic outcomes, but was struggling, and the government intervened actively.
it did mean occasional COVID outbreaks occurred. The
METRICS
outbreaks were mainly in the cities, which were dealt with
six-week lockdowns in the affected areas. GDP negative growth 2% per annum; The economy is
now 10% smaller than it was in 2019
The economy experienced a sustained recession. High
levels of unemployment, declining house prices and, as National debt 58%
global markets suffered, poorer returns from KiwiSaver Unemployment 12%
saw the end of the possibility of a comfortable retirement.
Part time work, where available, supplemented the Population decline 1% per annum
incomes of retired people and many others used multiple Carbon levels decrease as the population decreased
jobs to survive. and people can afford to do less
Some industries thrived through a lower dollar while those Environmental outcomes such as air and water
reliant on imports declined or failed. Capital investment quality worsened as there is no resource to invest in
was constrained reducing opportunities for skilled improvements.
employment. Commodity-based primary production was
the mainstay of the economy. Retrenchment of domestic Global economic challenges remained with ongoing
food processing reduced the economic benefits of the international COVID outbreaks. New Zealand extended
sector. its bubble to include Australia and the Pacific Islands but
maintained a strict quarantine beyond that.
Relatively restrictive immigration settings and poorer
employment conditions limited the availability of labour. Continued economic decline led to high levels of
Local employers had minimal engagement with vocational unemployment. People with a job were reluctant to move
training other than as required by regulatory compliance on, which reduced opportunities for young people joining
such as health and safety. the workforce. By 2024, pressure from the younger
HE MOANA PUKEPUKE E EKENGIA E TE WAKA Navigating choppy waters: Te Herenga Waka to 2025 19generation led to compulsory retirement at the age of WIND-TUNNELLING
55. The government increased benefits as New Zealand
We tested the visions described in Pae Tawhiti against
moves closer to a universal basic income as both the
these scenarios through a process of wind-tunnelling.
young and old press for it.
The DIY focus groups used to develop the visions set out
The economy was defined by a very low level of capital
their view of the features that our University needs to have
investment. The majority of successful businesses employ
to achieve our vision, given our iho and our values. For
a relatively low-skilled workforce. Primary production and
example, we want to be a university where kaitiakitanga
a greatly increased public sector workforce delivering
is a core value - where we recognise our guardianship
enhanced central government services were the main
responsibilities. There are a number of ways in which we
sources of new economic activity. Most industry research
could fulfil this aspiration, the challenge is deciding which
and development was undertaken internationally. Highly
is the right approach given the uncertainties we face
specialised roles were either sourced using special
ahead.
immigration exemptions or contracted remotely.
Rather than choose from a generic range of options, a
A significant grey economy developed for the “have nots”.
list generated from elsewhere, or a list that pitted one
The disenfranchised plus 55s became the backbone
core aspiration against another (eg wellbeing or agility)
of this hidden economy – with time banking and barter
we derived our list of options for the future from those
growing quickly. The government nationalised key
generated by our Te Herenga Waka community
failing businesses to ensure that core services remained
(see Table 5).
available to the population.
The exception was the final line, financial sustainability,
A major earthquake in the capital put further pressure on
derived from aspects of the Strategic Plan, as we
public and private finances and led to many businesses
also wished to open up discussion regarding these
leaving Wellington. Government moved to Auckland
considerations.
during the rebuild and was reluctant to move back, with
Auckland now the economic, social, cultural and now de To help us make the right choices we tested these
facto political capital of New Zealand. Wellington was features against the plausible scenarios described above.
in the process of being rebuilt as an exemplar, smaller, These scenarios suggest the future context in which we
sustainable city. will have to operate as a university. The scenarios are not
predictions, but a set of possible futures which allow us
As the Government faced significant financial pressures it
to test options, so we can find the most resilient way to
looked for savings in the tertiary sector. But this change
become the type of university we want to be.
was in tension with the Government’s goal to ensure
access for all to education. Government consolidated Key themes emerging from these discussions were:
the New Zealand universities into one organisation,
strong support for Ngā Herenga. The design of the
supported by one subsidiary delivery arm in each region.
features of the University to achieve our vision. Nga
National research priorities guided investment and Crown
Herenga resonated strongly with those in attendance,
Research Institutes were merged with the university
though there were different views on the most resilient
subsidiaries.
way to build a University with those features.
The government’s expectation was that each region is
we need to de-layer and simplify our processes and
well served with a wide range of programmes – but with
systems. Staff and students alike who wanted to be able
teaching material prepared in the subsidiary that is highest
to navigate their way around the University more easily,
ranked in that area.
make connections across disciplines and see the creation
The nature of student life has changed as the near basic of a coherent and co-ordinated approach to the way we
income and early retirement created a very different operate in the University.
cadre of students, who now see success as being the
recognition of the need to develop our approach to
conscience of society as they pursue knowledge to
decision making and communications. There was
support social change.
common support for more empowerment of staff, greater
transparency in the decision-making processes and more
open communication. There were different views of how
best to achieve this - some wanted collective decision
making and some more devolved decision making.
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