Heathrow Freight Movement Study - September 2009

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Heathrow Freight Movement
Study
September 2009
Executive Summary
AECOM   626 – WLA Heathrow Freight Movement Study – Executive Summary                                        3

        Executive Summary

        The Heathrow Freight Movement Study
        Aims and Scope
        Heathrow Airport is the UK’s largest airport in terms of passenger numbers and tonnage
        handled. In 2007/8 Heathrow handled 68 million passengers and around 1.3 million tonnes of
        cargo and around 83,300 tonnes of post office mail. The majority (94%) of cargo at Heathrow
        is carried in the belly-hold of scheduled passenger aircraft with the remainder carried in all-
        cargo aircraft.
        This study, commissioned in February 2009 by BAA, SEEDA, TfL and WLA aims to quantify
        the freight and servicing vehicle activity associated with Heathrow Airport in order to inform
        future decision making on surface access and to ensure that freight and servicing
        considerations are taken into account in that decision making. The specific aims of the study
        are to:
             •   Quantify the scale and impacts of freight and servicing activity within a study area
                 bounded by the A40/A406/A316/M3/A322/A329/M4/A404/M40 and understand local
                 economic factors
             •   Forecast Future movements and impacts to 2020
             •   Inform surface access planning, freight and servicing efficiencies and impact reduction
                 measures
        The study scope includes:
            •    Air cargo (airlines, cargo handling agents, freight forwarders, trucked air freight)
            •    Courier/express mail
            •    Airport servicing (airport terminals, hotels, offices and other premises)
            •    Aircraft servicing (catering, cleaning, maintenance etc.)
        Data Collection and Growth Scenarios
        The study has relied on extensive research, data collection and data analysis. This data has
        been obtained from a wide variety of sources including desk-based research, stakeholder
        workshops, an on-line survey, detailed discussions with industry operators and roadside goods
        vehicle counts. In addition, supplementary data was obtained from sources such as the
        Highways Agency, BAA, ICAO, CAA, DfT and relevant London Boroughs.
        In addition to detailed Control Post data provided by BAA, AECOM’s bespoke goods vehicle
        surveys (known as Specialised Goods Vehicle Counts or SGVCs) were undertaken at sixteen
        sites in a cordon screen-line around Heathrow during March/April 2009. These surveys
        provided detail of freight and servicing activity in the Heathrow area as well as providing
        important additional detail on operators, vehicle types and vehicle ages. The operator details
        collected as part of these surveys helped the study team to identify suitable companies to take
        part in an on-line survey which collected detailed freight and servicing activity information such
        as tonnage per vehicle, consignment types and origins/destinations of loads.
AECOM   626 – WLA Heathrow Freight Movement Study – Executive Summary                                         4

                             Primary Study Stakeholders
        DfT                                      BIFA
        BAA                                      London Borough of Hounslow
        Slough Borough Council                   AICES
        London Borough of Hillingdon             West London FQP
        RHA                                      Slough Borough Council
        DfT                                      FTA
        WLA                                      TfL
        SEEDA

        Further detailed information from specific operators across the whole spectrum of freight and
        servicing activity at Heathrow (cargo handling, airport servicing and aircraft servicing) was then
        collected via twenty-five ‘Freight Interest Surveys’ which consisted mainly of face-face meetings
        and site visits with operators to understand their operation in more detail and obtain further
        quantitative data on the nature of their freight and servicing activities related to Heathrow
        Airport. The Freight Interest Surveys were backed up by a telephone ‘Warehouse Survey’ of
        six of the main Heathrow cargo handling agents to which provided detailed operational
        information from these cargo operators.
        The data from these various primary and secondary sources was then normalised and cross-
        checked (validated) to create a robust base data set as part of the development of AECOM’s
        Heathrow Freight Forecast Model. SGVC and Control Post data was validated using Automatic
        Traffic Count (ATC) data and other count data supplied by Hillingdon Council, DfT and HA. A
        further validation process was undertaken using primary data on vehicle movements and
        vehicle fill collected from local freight interests such as freight forwarders, cargo agents and
        warehouse operators. Data from DfT’s Continuous Survey of Roads Goods Transport
        (CSRGT) was used to validate the proportion of non-Heathrow movements estimated in the
        study counts.
        Furthermore, the effects of the economic downturn on aviation activity was also considered.
        The majority of companies surveyed reported some decrease in trips, tonnages handled and
        vehicle fill. However, over the next 12 months 70% of companies expect to see either no
        change or a small to medium increase in activity. This optimism reflects rapid recovery from
        past aviation downturns, with volumes and growth trends being quickly restored to their former
        levels. A review of Heathrow air transport data shows that growth seems to be relatively stable
        and inelastic over the medium to long term in terms of its relationship to economic factors and
        therefore we see Heathrow returning to previously anticipated levels of throughput growth by
        about 2010. The resilience of the sector therefore gives us confidence in the forecasted further
        growth in Air Traffic Movements at Heathrow.
        Local Economic Factors
        Some 100 industrial estates exist within a 5 mile radius of the airport and it is estimated that
        some 40% of occupiers on these sites are directly related to airport activity, rising to 50% on the
        south side adjacent to the Cargo Centre.
        The presence of Heathrow Airport can be seen by the dominance of transport and
        communication activities in the Heathrow area. According to the 2007 data around two thirds
        (almost 57,500) of all jobs in the area are in this sector, with almost 52,000 of these jobs in the
        air transport and other supporting air transport activities sub-sectors. The latest BAA
        employment survey indicates in 2008/9 some 335 airport related companies employed over
        68,000 staff. Employment in transport and communication activities is also over-represented in
        the wider district area, accounting for over a fifth of all jobs in the area compared to around 7%
        of all jobs in Greater London. The Heathrow area is under-represented in all other sectors
        compared to the regional averages. However, financial and business services and distribution,
        hotels and restaurants are significant sectors, both accounting for over 10% of total
        employment in the area (around 11,400 and 9,900 jobs respectively).
AECOM   626 – WLA Heathrow Freight Movement Study – Executive Summary                                        5

                                                     The indicator Gross Value Added (GVA) per
                                                     employee is often used as a measure of the
                                                     productivity of a sector compared against other parts
                                                     of the economy. Overall, GVA per head across the
                                                     key freight sectors is estimated to be an average of
                                                     £39,550 per employee, some 12% higher than the
                                                     average for the UK economy as a whole. Productivity
                                                     is highest in the cargo handling sector, where GVA
                                                     per head is estimated at £62,800 per employee (80%
                                                     above the UK average). Overall the freight sector is
                                                    estimated to generate a GVA of £720 million in the
         Airport growth and demand for logistics    local Heathrow Villages Ward area and over £1,187
         warehousing is intrinsically linked
         .market for cargo warehousing has been     million in the wider District.
        Freight and Servicing Activity and Impacts
        Following validation and extrapolation to a year of the activity data collected by the study it is
        estimated that there are some 1.9 million (one way) annual freight and servicing-related trips
        currently to Heathrow Airport. Nearly two-thirds of these trips are related to cargo and mail
        activity, with terminal and office servicing accounting for 13% and aircraft servicing accounting
        for 23% of all trips. Each long haul flight generates roughly 9 landside cargo and servicing
        vehicle movements.
            Freight and
                                  Deliveries Direct to       Shuttling from
         Servicing Vehicles                                                    Direct to
                                      Study Area              Study Area                       Total
         to the Airport per                                                     Airport
                                     Warehouses               Warehouses
              Annum
         Terminal and office                                                                 238,233
                                          48,768                 31,498        157,966
         servicing                                                                            (13%)
                                                                                            1,229,683
         Cargo and mail                  632,375                 456,050       141,258
                                                                                              (65%)
                                                                                             430,430
         Aircraft servicing               96,743                 294,863        38,824
                                                                                              (23%)
         Grand Total              777,887            782,411      338,048                   1,898,346
        Estimated Heathrow Related Annual Vehicle Movements by Type (One Way)
        The estimated total Heathrow related freight and servicing vehicle kms (two way) are around
        247 million kms per annum and due to the greater distances travelled by cargo and mail
        activities these account for 90% of all vehicle kms. Some 53 million kms (22%) are undertaken
        by Heathrow related freight and servicing vehicles within the study area.
        Additional modelling activity undertaken as part of this study includes the AECOM External
        Costs Model which is able to calculate and forecast external transport impacts in a monetised
        form. These impacts cover congestion, infrastructure wear, air quality, accidents, noise and
        CO2. The External Costs Model estimates £226 million of external costs in 2009 on a national
        scale attributable to Heathrow-related freight and servicing activity and £51 million within the
        Study Area. The single largest cost impact under current valuation practices is congestion (65%
        of the total) and smallest is air quality (5% of the total).
AECOM   626 – WLA Heathrow Freight Movement Study – Executive Summary                                           6

                                                             Whilst there is no doubt that Heathrow freight
                                                             and servicing represents a significant level of
                                                             commercial activity, it must been set against
                                                             the context of overall vehicular activity within
                                                             the Study Area, of which it represents 0.4% of
                                                             total vehicles, 4.9% of HGVs and 1.6% of vans.
                                                             In relation to the study survey cordon screen-
                                                             line Heathrow related freight and servicing
                                                             activity represents 46% of all HGV activity,
                                                             23% of van activity and 5.7% of all motor
                                                             vehicle activity.
         Non Heathrow truck traffic represents the
         overwhelming majority of HGVs in the study area.

        Freight and Servicing Activity Forecasts
        Based on the knowledge gained as part of this study on existing freight and servicing vehicle
        volumes, types and patterns of activity The Heathrow Freight Forecast Model developed for the
        study is able to forecast future freight and servicing vehicle volumes for a variety of different
        future scenarios at Heathrow. These forecasts are achieved through the development of
        relationships within the model between freight and servicing activity types and various airport
        growth parameters. For example the model contains a relationship between cargo vehicle
        volumes and forecast cargo tonnage arriving or departing on aircraft at the airport. There is a
        further relationship within the model between aircraft catering vehicles and forecast aircraft
        movements at the airport.
        Using 1.9 million one-way trips as the 2009 base case, freight and servicing activity to 2020
        was forecast against the following three growth scenarios:
        •    Scenario A: Airport development within existing limits with Air Transport Movements
             (ATMs) capped at 480,000 per annum;
        •    Scenario B: Airport grows to around 605,000 ATMs per annum by about 2022 with the long
             haul proportion of the total ATMs growing in line with historic experience; and
        •    Scenario C: Airport grows to around 605,000 ATMs per annum with the short haul
             proportion of the total ATMs growing at the expense of long haul ATMs reflecting the
             potential need to artificially influence the ATM mix in order to ensure that environmental
             limits are met.
        For each of the above scenarios the model forecasts for the 2020 annual number of freight and
        servicing trips to Heathrow Airport are as follows:
            • Scenario A: 2.1 million – an increase of 10% on 2009
            • Scenario B: 2.5 million – an increase of 34% on 2009
            • Scenario C: 2.4 million – an increase of 29% on 2009

                                                                        External Costs       Tonnes CO2
                        Freight/Servicing                                 of Airport-        Released by
        2020                Vehicles            Freight/Servicing
                                                                        Related Freight     Airport-Related
        Forecasts                                 Vehicle-kms
                         One Way Trips                                    /Servicing       Freight/Servicing
                                                                           Vehicles            Vehicles

        Scenario A       2,085,778          276,931,432       £251,021,000          174,708
                           (9.8%)              (12%)              (11%)              (13%)
        Scenario B       2,544,765          344,378,940       £312,553,000          217,878
                           (34%)               (40%)              (38%)              (41%)
        Scenario C       2,446,809          326,619,577       £296,473,000          206,465
                          (28.8%)              (32%)              (31%)              (33%)
        Total Heathrow Freight and Servicing Vehicle Generation and External Cost Estimates
AECOM   626 – WLA Heathrow Freight Movement Study – Executive Summary                                                    7

        Scenario B where ATMs grow to around 605,000 per annum by 2022 with the long haul
        proportion growing in line with historic experience represents the greatest freight and servicing
        traffic impact with an increase in vehicle trips of 34% and increases in vehicle kms and external
        costs of around 40%.
        Options and Interventions
        Following stakeholder and industry discussions and two workshops undertaken as part of the
        study a number of options/interventions have been identified to either help improve the
        efficiency of the industry or help reduce the impact of the industry on the local community. Many
        of these interventions were devised to try and address some of the major pinch-points and
        issues raised by stakeholders and consultees. In particular these focussed on:
            • Control Post congestion;
            • Delays in freight collections and deliveries at the Cargo Centre; and
            • Peak time congestion on the M4 and M25.
                                                                          Issues relating to transport security and
                                                                          lorry parking were not raised as problems.
                                                                          Interestingly lack of provision of public
                                                                          transport for employees to access the
                                                                          airport, particularly the Cargo Centre, from
                                                                          areas to the West of the airport were
                                                                          raised.
                                                           Wide-ranging options include ideas such
                                                           as load consolidation and collaboration,
                                                           driver training and fuel management,
                                                           performance management, infrastructure
                                                           re-design and rationalisation, modal shift
                                                           and the use of alternative fuels. The
          The design of the cargo centre is now out-moded.
                                                           impacts (external costs) of a number of
                                                           these options have been modelled using
        the External Costs Model and Freight Forecast Model to identify which options might result in
        the most significant benefits.

                               Establishment and use of shared services      Improved back loading
              TRANSPORT        for inter-airport trunking operations
            COLLABORATION      Upstream consolidation of food supplies to    Consolidation of newsprint deliveries
            AND THE USE OF     flight kitchens
                SHARED         Last leg consolidation of aircraft supplies   Shared bus/lorry lanes
           INFRASTRUCTURE      Shared collection/delivery services between   Control post strategy
                               off airport warehouses and airport
             BEHAVIOURAL       Out of hours network operations               Customer education
               CHANGE          Driver training programme                     Fuel management programme
                               Reduction of hubbed freight from Heathrow     Re-location of the existing cargo centre
            REDESIGN OF
                               Rationalisation of forwarder warehouses       Cargo centre Vehicle Booking System (VBS)
          LOGISTICS SYSTEM
                               Cargo consolidation centre                    Cargo centre redesign

             MODAL SHIFT    Rail freight
                            Emission controls                                Delivery and Service Plans (DSPs)
          POLICY, VOLUNTARY Service and delivery charge                      Freight Quality Partnership (FQP)
           AND REGULATORY Freight Operator Recognition Scheme
                                                                             Mobile refrigeration equipment
            INTERVENTIONS   (FORS)
                            Performance management                           Higher capacity vehicles
             ALTERNATIVE
                            Use of electric powered vehicles                 Use of gas powered vehicles
                 FUELS
              INTELLIGENT   Freight Exchanges                                IT based security systems
               TRANSPORT
              SYSTEM (ITS)  Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)            Vehicle Booking System for cargo centre
               SOLUTIONS
AECOM   626 – WLA Heathrow Freight Movement Study – Executive Summary                                         8

        Potential Impact Reduction Options (those in yellow indicated modelled options)
        The interventions were tested to 2020 and compare the 2020 external costs without the
        proposed intervention against each of the three Heathrow growth scenerios A, B and C. Each
        intervention was tested against a low, medium and high take up or market penetration of the
        option. The table below provides a summary of the modelling outputs tested against growth
        scenario A (airport development within existing limits with ATMs capped at 480,000 per
        annum). It shows the top six total external cost saving interventions that were modelled.
        External cost savings against Scenarios B and C would be greater.

        For the options modelled greatest external cost savings arise from:
                                                                     ECM          Total          Total
        Option Description
                                                                   Scenario     Saving £M      Saving %

        Improved back-loading                                       Medium        £32.6         13.0%

        Reduction of hubbed freight                                 Medium        £20.4          8.1%

        Use of higher capacity vehicles                             Medium        £17.0          6.8%

        Establishment and use of shared services for inter-
                                                                        2         £11.1          4.4%
        airport trunking operations

        Mode shift to rail freight                                  Medium         £9.3          3.7%

        Out of hours network operations, spread to inter-
                                                                    Medium         £6.6          2.6%
        peak and night-time periods

        Recommendations
        Whilst it was not an objective of the Heathrow Freight Movement Study to produce an action
        plan or programme of interventions designed to contain or reduce impacts, an increase in
        freight and servicing vehicle activity to 2020 of between 30% and 40% does indicate that such a
        strategy should be developed by key stakeholders. Recommendations are grouped into the
        following categories:
            • Business Led Opportunities
            • Client Group Actions
            • Further Studies and Activities

        Business Led Opportunities – Industry Cost savings and a Business Led Forum.
        Competition in the logistics sector and continuing fuel price rises will no doubt continue to drive
        transport efficiencies and the sector will respond with innovative solutions that may reflect the
        options and interventions offered by this study. Whilst the options modelling provides an
        indication of the external costs saving attributed to each intervention, and these can be used as
        business drivers particularly in respect of Corporate Social Responsibility, direct cost savings to
        the organisation are a definite motivator for change.

                                                                                          Potential
                                                                               ECM        Fuel Cost
                 Option Description                                                       Saving to
                                                                             Scenario
                                                                                          Industry
                                                                                             £M
AECOM   626 – WLA Heathrow Freight Movement Study – Executive Summary                                         9

                  Improved back-loading                                   Medium        £413.2

                  Reduction of hubbed freight                             Medium        £258.6

                  Use of higher capacity vehicles                         Medium        £215.5

                  Establishment and use of shared services for inter-
                                                                             2          £140.7
                  airport trunking operations

                  Mode shift to rail freight                              Medium        £117.9

                  Out of hours network operations, spread to inter-
                                                                          Medium         £83.7
                  peak and night-time periods

        Potential Annual Business Cost Savings Derived from the Options/Interventions
        To facilitate collaborative ventures, develop better practices and deliver market led efficiency
        improvements the development of a business led ‘Logistics Forum’ is proposed. This might
        comprise of representatives from the following local businesses:
            •   Cargo agents
            •   Freight forwarders
            •   Airfreight hauliers
            •   Express, courier and mail

        The forum would most likely ultimately need to be self-financing, compliment the work of the
        West London FQP and operate to a strict remit. This remit could include an objective to
        implement impact reduction measures as a mechanism to avoid the possible mandatory
        imposition of controls, such as emissions standards, infrastructure charging and planning/land
        use constraints.
        Client Group Actions
        It is clear that BAA has a pivotal role in implementing and influencing strategies and controls for
        all types of surface access activity at the airport. It has driven initiatives such as the Retail
        Consolidation Centre and its own Clean Vehicles Programme. Control Post strategy is
        constantly under review and being developed. A profiling/priority system and scheduling
        system (for example out of hours waste collections) and slot booking system should be
        considered.
        Whilst the overall impact reduction of the introduction of electric vehicles is limited, its
        contribution to local air quality measures and the large number of local trips in small vehicles
        mean that the provision of an adequate re-charging infrastructure should be achievable. The
        Client Group should work collaboratively to help achieve the Mayor’s Electric Vehicle Delivery
        Plan which seeks to introduce 100,000 electric vehicles to London.
        Further Studies and Activities
         The study scope has not extended to the investigation of delivery and service practices of other
        comparable airports. Most do not operate within the infrastructure constraints at Heathrow but
        lessons learned elsewhere and a benchmarking of performance, even at a high level (such as
        trips per tonnes handled) could provide some useful indicators.
        The modelling process has shown the theoretical potential for modal-shift of trucked airfreight to
        rail for European traffic. The development of High Speed 1 and 2 and the recently re-emerged
        proposal for the Slough International Rail Freight terminal, whilst not predicated on freight
        tonnage inputs from Heathrow, do represent opportunities for the development of a domestic
        and European network connecting key airports by a fast overnight service. BAA and other
        stakeholders should ensure that they are fully engaged with the consultative process for the
        development of domestic and European rail freight services.
AECOM   626 – WLA Heathrow Freight Movement Study – Executive Summary                                      10

        Finally, the complexities of operations at the Cargo Centre impact directly on the efficiency of
        the businesses collecting and delivering cargo. Dwell times here are unacceptably long leading
        to poor vehicle and driver productivity. A detailed investigation of the systems and process
        used by the Cargo Agents is recommended to better understand the opportunities for
        improvements.
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