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Horizons et Tendances, 9 janvier 2019 1
Formation continue
Horizons et Tendances
Mercredi 15 janvier 2020, Lausanne
www.epas.ch
Horizons et Tendances, 9 janvier 2019 2
Horizons et Tendances, 15 janvier 2020
Perspectives économiques /
investissements 2020
Vincent Juvyns
www.epas.ch
Global growth GTM – Europe |4
Real GDP growth Contribution to global real GDP growth
% change year on year % change year on year
6 5
4 4
Global economy
2 3
0 2
-2 1
-4 0
2020
consensus forecast Global
-6 -1 China
US 1,8%
EM ex-China
UK 1,1%
-8 -2 DM ex-US
Eurozone 1,0%
US
Japan 0,3%
-10 -3
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18
Source: (Left) BEA, Bloomberg, Eurostat, Japan Cabinet Office, ONS, Refinitiv Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forecasts are from Bloomberg contributor composite. (Right) Refinitiv Datastream, World Bank,
J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EM is emerging markets. DM is developed markets.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2019.
3
Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing GTM – Europe | 5
2019
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nov Dec
Global 50,3 50,1
Developed 49,5 49,1
Emerging 51,0 51,0
Global economy
Eurozone 46,9 46,3
France 51,7 50,4
Germany 44,1 43,7
Eurozone
Italy 47,6 46,2
Spain 47,5 47,4
Greece 54,1 53,9
Ireland 49,7 49,5
Sweden 45,7 47,1
Developed
Switzerland 48,8 50,2
UK 48,9 47,5
US 52,6 52,4
Japan 48,9 48,8
China 51,8 51,5
Indonesia 48,2 49,5
Korea 49,4 50,1
Emerging
Taiwan 49,8 50,8
India 51,2 52,7
Brazil 52,9 50,2
Mexico 48,0 47,1
Russia 45,6 47,5
Source: Markit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing assesses the economic health of the sector by
surveying manufacturing businesses regarding output, new orders, stocks of purchases, supplier delivery times and employment. A score of 50 indicates that economic
activity is neither expanding nor contracting, above 50 indicates expansion. The colours range from red to yellow to green, where red is below 50, yellow is at 50 and
green is above 50. Quarterly averages are shown, except the two most recent monthly data points. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future
results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2019.
4
Global core inflation and inflation expectations GTM – Europe |8
Core inflation Market-based inflation expectations
% change year on year %, 5y5y inflation swap
5 5
4 4 UK
Global economy
Headline inflation
target
3 3
US
2 2
1 1 Eurozone
Japan
0 0
US
-1 UK -1
Eurozone
Japan
-2 -2
'07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19
Source: (Left) Bank of Japan, BLS, Eurostat, ONS, Refinitiv Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI is the Consumer Price Index. Core inflation for the US is defined as CPI excluding food and energy. Core
inflation for Japan is defined as CPI excluding fresh food and energy. Core inflation for the UK and the eurozone is defined as CPI less energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. Japan core CPI has been adjusted down by 2% from
April 2014 to March 2015 to remove the estimated impact of the consumption tax hike over this period. (Right) Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 5y5y inflation swap represents the market’s expectation of five-year
average inflation, starting in five years’ time. Data for Japan starts in March 2007 due to data availability. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31
December 2019.
5
Global central bank policy GTM – Europe |9
Market expectations for policy rate Central bank balance sheets
% USD trillions
12-month change Global central bank
2.0 3.0 18
in balance sheet balance sheet
Forecast*
2.5 16
1.6
Global economy
US
14
2.0
1.2
12
1.5
0.8 10
UK
1.0
0.4 8
0.5
6
Japan
0.0
0.0
4
Eurozone
-0.4
Switzerland -0.5 2
-0.8 -1.0 0
Dec ’19 Dec ’20 Dec ’21 Dec ’22 Dec ’23 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Expectations are calculated using OIS forwards. (Right) Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), European Central Bank (ECB), Refinitiv Datastream, Swiss
National Bank (SNB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Global central bank balance sheet is the sum of the balance sheets of the BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed and SNB. *Balance sheet forecast
assumptions: BoE to have zero net asset purchases over the forecast period; BoJ to have an annualised net asset purchase pace of 20 trillion yen over the forecast period; ECB to have net asset purchases of 20 billion
euros per month over the forecast period; SNB to have zero net asset purchases over the forecast period; Fed to increase assets by USD 60 billion per month through to June 2020, after which it is assumed that the balance
sheet will remain steady. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2019.
6
Global income GTM – Europe | 48
Asset yield comparison
% yield
Equity
10 9.4
Fixed income
8 Average Europe inflation: 1,5% Alternatives
(12 months to November 2019) 5.5
6 4.8 4.8
4.1 4.2
4 3.4
2.3 2.6
2
0.0 0.5
0
-0.2
-2
German Cash Euro IG DM equity EM equity MSCI Global Global REITs Global EM debt DM high yield Global
Equities
Bunds Europe convertibles infrastructure transport
Equity index yields
% yield Buyback yield
6 Dividend yield
5
4
3
2
1
0
FTSE All-Share S&P 500 MSCI World MSCI Europe ex-UK MSCI Japan MSCI EM
Source: (Top) Bloomberg Barclays, BofA/Merrill Lynch, Clarkson, Drewry Maritime Consultants, MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Additional yield often comes with
associated capital and/or liquidity risk. Global infrastructure and global transport yields are as of March 2019 and June 2019, respectively. Yields for the bond indices are yield to worst and dividend
yields for the equity indices. Global transport levered yield is rental income minus operating expenses, debt amortisation and interest expenses, expressed as a percentage of equity value. Global
convertibles: Bloomberg Barclays Global Convertibles; DM equity: MSCI World; EM equity: MSCI EM; German bunds: Germany 10-year yield; Euro IG: Bloomberg Barclays Euro Agg. –
Corporates; Global REITs: FTSE NAREIT Index; DM high yield: BofA/Merrill Lynch Developed Markets High Yield Constrained; EM debt: J.P. Morgan EMBI Global; Global infrastructure: MSCI
Global Infrastructure Asset Index – Low risk. (Bottom) Bloomberg, FTSE, MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Buyback yield is last twelve months
buybacks divided by the market cap of the index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2019.
7
Horizons et Tendances, 9 janvier 2019 9
Horizons et Tendances, 15 janvier 2020
Quels placements et asset classes
favoriser pour 2020?
Eric Rosset
www.epas.ch
2019 WITHIN THE TOP 3 VINTAGE YEARS
Pictet LPP 40 Index – Annual Returns (Rebased)
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv, December 2019
Perspectives d'investissement 2020
10 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
LOOKING INTO 2020
› ‘Slowdown part 2’ › Last missing piece to global easing
jigsaw
› US lags global slowdown
› Odds tilted towards more Fed easing
Global China’s › Clear need of easing
Desynchronised Defensive Easing
Slowdown
› Multiple constraints (including
‘stagflation’)
› ‘Initial recovery part 1’ › Diversifying away from negative
Paradigm Shift Constructing yielding debt
› Test cases: India, Korea, EMU, UK
in Policy Mix Robust Portfolios
› US election: the next big step forward
› Using optionality to capture growth
surprises
in this shift?
› Keeping credit risk at bay
Source: Pictet Asset Management, December 2019
Perspectives d'investissement 2020
11 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
FROM TIGHTENING TO PIVOT AND MODEST EASING
Major 5 – Total (Policy & Private) Liquidity Flow by Major Bloc (6-Month Rolling, % GDP)
Double tightening
Pivot
2007 Peak 2017 Peak
50% US 20% US
20% China 50% China
Note: Total Liquidity flow calculated as Policy plus Private Liquidity flows, as % of nominal GDP, using current-USD GDP weights (US: 36.9%, China: 26.1%, EMU: 23.5%, Japan: 8.7%, UK: 4.9%)
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Pictet Asset Management
Perspectives d'investissement 2020
12 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
ONE MISSING PIECE TO GLOBAL EASING PUZZLE? CHINA
EM – Activity & Central Bank Breadth China – Activity & Policy Easing
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv, December 2019 Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv, December 2019
Perspectives d'investissement 2020
13 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
ANGLO-SAXON BONDS TO PROVIDE PORTFOLIO BALANCE
US – 10Yr Yield & 10% Return Implied Target Swiss – 10Yr Yield & 10% Return Implied Target
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv, December 2019 Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv, December 2019
Perspectives d'investissement 2020
14 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
USD LIQUIDITY TIGHTNESS TO FADE AWAY
US Dollar Index (DXY) v. US Dollar Bloc Liquidity ($bn)
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv, December 2019
Perspectives d'investissement 2020
15 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
GROWTH INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE, INCREMENTAL SHIFT TO VALUE
Global IT – Price v. Earnings Global Financials – Price v. Earnings
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv, December 2019 Source: Pictet Asset Management, Refinitiv, December 2019
Perspectives d'investissement 2020
16 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
CORE VIEWS FOR 2020
› Risk budget allocation: market weight in equities, using optionality where possible, keep
duration long
› US slowdown part 2: keep defensive equities (staples, utilities, REITs, healthcare), shave
cyclical growth equities
› Initial recoveries part 1: dedicate a risk budget to corners of Europe (domestic oriented) and
GEM (India, Korea) equities
› Portfolio balance: rotate into Anglo-Saxon core bonds (US, UK, Canada, Australia)
› Weaker US dollar: favour US TIPS & EM LC debt, keep gold
› Beware credit: more companies falling into BBB and out of BBB into High Yield
Perspectives d'investissement 2020
17 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
For more information
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Perspectives d'investissement 2020
18 Pictet Asset Management
A l'attention des investisseurs professionnels
Horizons et Tendances, 9 janvier 2019 19
Horizons et Tendances, 15 janvier 2020
Perspectives pour le marché
immobilier
Damian Künzi
www.epas.ch
Un cycle immobilier long et mature en Suisse
22 ans
14 ans x 2.4
x 2.6
16 ans
x 2.4
Prix des maisons à
plusieurs logements,
indice TRX de Wüest
Partner
Source: Wüest Partner
20 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020Comment investir dans une période de
répression financière prolongée?
%
21 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020
Prime de risque sur l’immobilier Suisse :
attrayante et sans alternative
%
%
22 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020Défi 1 : ralentissement de l’économie suisse
et du solde migratoire
2
90000
70000 1
points de %
personnes
50000
0
30000
-1
10000
-10000 -2
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Solde migratoire, échelle gauche
Différence de croissance Suisse/zone euro, échelle droite
23 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020
Défi 2 : écart croissant entre offre et
demande, hausse des taux de vacance
Source : Office fédéral de la statistique, Swiss Life
Taux de vacance
24 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020Défi 3 : augmentation de la pression politique
Problèmes d’accessibilité des prix
Genève : Initiative populaire «Construisons des logements pour toutes et tous»
approuvée le 24 novembre 2019
Berlin: introduction d’un gel temporaire des loyers
Bâle: plusieurs initiatives en attente de mise en œuvre :
En période de pénurie, les investisseurs doivent demander des autorisations
de projets de rénovation ou de démolition pour les «logements abordables»
Suisse : initiative populaire fédérale «davantage de logements abordables»,
mise en votation le 9 février 2020
Nouvelles règles en matière d’efficacité énergétique
25 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020
Notre réponse : gestion active innovante et
préférence donnée aux emplacements centraux
Projet «Cornaredo
Park» à Lugano
Source : Archilyse, Swiss Life Asset Managers
26 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020Prime de risque plus élevée à l’étranger
Rendements de bureaux «prime» au T3 2019
5%
4.50%
4.2% 4.00% 3.95%
4%
3.40% 3.30% 3.23% 3.25% 3.25%
2.43% 3.12% 3.09%
3% 2.70%
2.60%
2.30%
2.00% 3.52% 2.12%
3.67%
2% 4.02%
3.64% 3.57% 3.56% 3.49% 3.38% 3.27% 3.08%
3.00%
2.70%
2.40%
1% 2.07%
1.13%
0.48% 0.28%
0% 0.17%
-0.02% -0.24% -0.27% -0.26% -0.29%
-0.40% -0.40% -0.40% -0.44% -0.57%
-1%
Rendements des obligations Prime de risque immobiliers Rendements de
d'Etat à 10 ans vs. rendements des obligations d'Etat bureaux «prime»
Source : PMA, Wüest Partner, Cushman & Wakefield Macrobond ¦ Rendement des obligations d’Etat en moyenne trimestrielle; *T2 2019
27 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020
Disclaimer
• Publié et approuvé par le Département économique
Swiss Life Asset Managers, Zurich
• Swiss Life Asset Managers est susceptible d’avoir suivi ou utilisé les recommandations présentées plus haut avant leur publication. Bien
que nos prévisions soient basées sur des sources considérées comme fiables, aucune garantie ne saurait être donnée quant à
l’exactitude et à l’exhaustivité des informations utilisées. Le présent document contient des prévisions portant sur des évolutions futures.
Nous ne nous engageons ni à les réviser, ni à les actualiser. Les évolutions effectives peuvent fortement différer de celles anticipées dans
nos prévisions.
28 | Horizons et tendances | 15.01.2020You can also read
