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Integer Focus Report The Outlook for UAN Analysis of supply, demand, prices, trade-flows, and the industry supply curve for existing and new producers www.integer-research.com
Integer Focus Report: The Outlook for UAN
The UAN market is undergoing significant
supply and demand transition. Integer
Research has published a detailed and
comprehensive study of the global UAN
market, The Outlook for UAN which
analyses tradeflows and the competitive
position of the leading producers and
new entrants. It explores how this
market is likely to develop in the medium
term, and forecasts UAN prices, supply,
demand and trade.
Use the Report to address the following questions:
How is UAN demand evolving in the traditional What was the impact of the market slowdown
markets in the US and Europe, and the rapid in 2009? How is the UAN market and nitrogen
growth markets in the southern hemisphere? markets in general recovering?
What the absolute demand and product
substitution trends? What is the impact on the UAN market of the major
merger between CF Industries and Terra Industries?
Who is investing in new UAN capacity? These two producers now produce around 25% of
global UAN production? Will they be able to exert
How has the new capacity developed in the last increased market influence?
few years been absorbed in the market? Which
producers have gained and lost market share?
Integer’s fully revised and updated Report looks at both the supply and the demand of the UAN market
worldwide. After a detailed view of global production and exports of UAN, it examines the demand trends
by country and by state or province for the key markets in the US and Europe, along with substitution trends
between single nutrient N fertilizers in the US.
Unique to this report are the UAN cost curves. Using Integer’s detailed database of production costs for the
key fertilizer producers around the world, the report summarizes this data to provide cost curves for major
UAN producers worldwide.
The Outlook for UAN presents the result of detailed analysis and modeling and will provide you with
forecasts and insights based on accurate data. Whether you are a producer, an investor, or looking for a
supplier, you have to take a view on the future – and the accuracy of that view will determine how profitable
your activity is going to be.
What is included in the Report: Cost and profit margin curves for major producers worldwide The cost curves give valuable data to compare the relative competitiveness of a peer group of operators (including the charges involved in getting UAN product to market). By comparing production costs with netback prices, we show profits for each major producer. Production costs We analyse production costs using top down and bottom up methodology and present the key variables. Forecasts, supply, demand and price developments A comprehensive country-by-country forecast of UAN supply, demand, trade, and price development is provided 10 years ahead to 2021. Global imports and exports The Report provides extensive analysis of global imports and exports, along with an overview of UAN logistics and supply, including primary locations for terminals and handling. Use the Report to discover the UAN competitive landscape Gas prices in the US have dropped significantly relative to most other UAN producers. Discover what has been the impact on US production costs and margins. International freight rates have weakened since 2008, through our analysis of transportation and handling costs, learn how much this improved competitiveness of UAN exporters. European gas prices remain relatively high, with gas still priced with a link to oil in some countries. European producers also face a threat from upcoming climate change legislation. How are European UAN producers coping with these issues? Increased competition in the market has put pressure on some UAN producers. The report shows the relative competitiveness of each of the main producers, highlighting where low and high cost marginal capacity is located. Which are easily able to switch products and gain improve margins in other solid products?
Table of Contents
Supply, Domestic Supply and Exports
Detailed coverage of global production and exports of UAN at production by country, company and plant and
considers export flows since 2003.
North America Former USSR
Supply of UAN from key USA and Canadian Key producers Eurochem, Acron, Kuaz, Stirol,
producers including the recently merged Terra Cherkassy and Grodno.
and CF Industries, Coffeyville Resources, Koch
Nitrogen, Potash Corp, and Agrium. Other countries and region
Analysis of production and exports of UAN
Europe from the new UAN plant built by New Methanol
Production of UAN by country, company and plant. Holdings in Trinidad, other exports from Egypt;
European producers featured are Yara, Agrofert, Argentina’s UAN production by Bunge; and
Pulawy, Achema, InterAgro, and Fertiberia. Australian production by CSBP.
Demand and Imports
We provide global demand trends for single nutrient N fertilizers and current and future issues affecting the
market, substitution between UAN and other straight nitrogen fertilizers, demand trends by country, and
imports at country level.
North America
Looks at single nutrient N fertilizer demand and substitution trends between single nutrient N
substitution trends since 1960 in the USA; the fertilizers and intra-European and external imports
world’s largest UAN market. Covers fertilizer since 2003. Demand by province or region in
demand by country and state, crop cultivation by France and Germany, the key markets.
state and UAN consumption by state.
Other countries and regions
Europe Showing Argentinean and Australian demand and
The second largest global market, includes demand imports for UAN and substitution trends between
trends in UAN consuming European countries, single nutrient N fertilizers.
UAN logistics
UAN logistics and storage, including ownership, usage and capacity of storage terminals and tanks at the key
locations around the world. This plays a key role in determining UAN trade flows.
UAN production costs
Production costs for the major existing UAN producers worldwide in order to develop a global UAN cost curve,
including estimated costs for the new plant in Trinidad. Beside factory gate production costs, such as natural
gas, we also consider transportation, logistics and handling costs, comprehensively covering total costs to
market. By comparing market prices with production costs, we derive profitability by operator.
UAN market forecasts
Our final chapter gives you a comprehensive country-by-country forecast of UAN supply, demand, trade, and price
developments for the next ten years. We examine the likely impact of new capacity on these balances.
About Integer Research
Integer Research is a leading supplier of market analysis, forecasts and strategy consultancy. We offer
financial profile services, tailored consultancy services, regular reports and events. Our analysis and insights
use company financials to complement traditional commodity analysis as we believe this provides a more
useful basis for decision making.
Like to know more? Order this important information now with the order form on the back of this brochureInteger Focus Report: The Outlook for UAN To receive more information on this new study, please complete and fax this form to us. Or contact Kristian Wyatt on +44 20 7503 1265 or email kristian.wyatt@integer-research.com Contact details: Title (Dr/Mr/Mrs/Ms) First name Last name Job title Company Company activity Address City State Zip Code/Post Code Country Tel Fax Email Signature Date More information Integer would like to keep you informed of relevant products and services. Please tick if you would prefer not to be contacted by, email phone post fax Integer Research is a specialist provider of research, data, analysis and consultancy services across a growing range of commodities markets. Our analysis and insights use company financials to complement traditional commodity analysis to make sense of an individual company’s competitive position and the industry in which it operates. Our services are used by a range of clients world-wide, from commodity producers, investors and shippers, to plant contractors, trading companies, government agencies and trade associations. Integer www.integer-research.com 40 Featherstone Street Tel +44 20 7503 1265 London EC1Y 8RE Fax +44 20 7503 1266 United Kingdom VAT number 805 2475 43
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