INVESTING IN DUBLIN 2020 - BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE GUIDE TO - Real Estate for a changing - BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland

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BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE GUIDE TO

INVESTING
IN DUBLIN
2020

in collaboration with:

                                       Real Estate
                                   for a changing
                                            world
KEY FIGURES                                                                                                                                          CONTENTS
2019                                                                      2019 RESULTS

BNP Paribas Real Estate                                                            €1.010
                                                                         €203M of net profit before tax
                                                                                                                           BN
                                                                                                                            OF REVENUES

                                                                                                                         €898.5M in equity capital
                                                                                                                                                     INTRODUCTION
                                                                                                                                                     4    FOREWORD BY KENNETH ROUSE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    GUIDE TO DUBLIN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    24 DUBLIN’S OFFICE MARKET
                                                                                                                                                     6    IRELAND AND DUBLIN BY NUMBERS                             31 DUBLIN’S RETAIL MARKET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    39 LAND & DEVELOPMENT
BREAKDOWN OF REVENUES                                                                                                                                                                                               43
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    47
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       PROPERTY MANAGEMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       WORKPLACE SOLUTIONS AND STRATEGIC

            8%                                                             19%                                                                       OVERVIEW                                                          DESIGN CONSULTANCY
        OTHERS                                                      COMMERCIAL                                                                                                                                      49 LEASE ADVISORY
                                                                       PROPERTY
                                                                   DEVELOPMENT                                                                                                                                      55 CAPITAL ADVISORY
                                                                 AND RESIDENTIAL
     17%                                                                                                                     81%                     10 10 KEY REASONS TO INVEST IN IRELAND
       UK                                                  50%                                                               PROPERTY                16 IDA IRELAND: DUBLIN REMAINS THE
                                                           FRANCE                                                            SERVICES
                                                                                                                             (Transaction,              LOCATION OF CHOICE FOR FOREIGN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    INVESTOR TOOLKIT
                                                                37%
                                                                                                                             Advisory,
                            REVENUES                                                             REVENUES                    Valuation,                 DIRECT INVESTMENT
                             BY COUNTRY                                                        BY BUSINESS LINE              Property
                                                                                                                             Management              19 IRELAND’S INVESTMENT MARKET
                                                                                                                             and Investment
                                                         OF RECURRENT REVENUES :                                             Management)
        25%                                   Consulting, Valuation, Property Management,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    59 IRISH REAL ESTATE FINANCE
     GERMANY                                            Investment Management
                                                      and Serviced Accommodation                                                                                                                                    62 IRISH REAL ESTATE LAW
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    71 TAX CLINIC

A COMPLETE OFFER FOR INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS

        COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT                                                         RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    OUR TEAM
        116,600 sq.m started                                                                   €727M of sales volumes
        245,000 sq.m of schemes under construction                                             2,500 housing units started in France
        in Europe                                                                                                                                                                                                   79 CONTACTS

        ADVISORY (TRANSACTION, CONSULTING, VALUATION)                                           INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
        €553.3M of revenues, with 5.9M sq.m of commercial                                         €30.1Bn of assets under management in Europe
        real estate provided to users
                                                                                               +4.8% vs 2018                                         BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland
        €31Bn in commercial real estate investment transacted
                                                                                                                                                     20 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, D04 C9E2, Ireland
                                                                                                                                                     www.realestate.bnpparibas.ie
                                                                                                                                                     Investing in Dublin 2020 was edited by BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland
                                                                                                                                                     in collaboration with:
        PROPERTY MANAGEMENT                                                              16%
                                                                                     OTHERS                                            38%
        €110.4M of revenues                                                                                                            FRANCE

        43.7M sq.m of managed portfolio
        (60% outside France).
                                                                                   18%
                                                                            GERMANY                        WORKFORCE                                 All rights reserved. This Guide is protected in its entirety by copyright. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
                                                                                                            BY COUNTRY                               translated, transmitted, or stored in a retrieval system in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in
                                                                                                                                          28%        writing of BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland.
                                                                                                                                          UK
4   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                   INTRODUCTION |   5

                                                                                                                                                       Irish commercial real estate continued

    FOREWORD                                                                                                                                           to deliver exceptional returns throughout
                                                                                                                                                       2019, against a backdrop of strong political,
                                                                                                                                                       social and economic fundamentals.

    Kenneth Rouse
    Managing Director
    Head of Capital Markets
    BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland                    Growing interest from global investors is ev-        The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic          cluding conversion and repurposing to create
                                                       idenced in the evolution of the mega-deal            is also now being experienced in Ireland and        sustainable real estate. BNP Paribas Real Estate
                                                       (€100m+) in the past five years, with 18 such        is affecting all business sectors including real    can provide the solutions to this potential real
                                                       transactions completed in 2019 displaying a          estate. Nevertheless, the fundamentals of com-      estate ticking time bomb.
    Ireland’s robust performance continues to ce-      steady increase year-on-year when compared           mercial property markets are slower moving
    ment the country’s position as an excellent        with the 4 mega-deals transacted in 2014.            than those of bond and stock markets. Prop-         There are many reasons to invest in Ireland, not
    place in which to invest and do business. This                                                          erty investors, as we know, are generally in ‘for   least the high calibre investment advice, man-
    annual publication from BNP Paribas Real Es-       This trend is set to continue as real estate allo-   the long haul’, and appreciate the durability of    agement and advisory services provided by the
    tate Ireland looks at the market fundamentals,     cations grow, crucially providing investors with     hard assets.                                        dedicated BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland team
    with a particular focus on Dublin commercial       consistent income and real value, particularly                                                           in Dublin.
    property, and asks what is in store for 2020 and   in a sustained low interest rate environment.        The institutional shift in focus towards ESG
    indeed the decade ahead.                           Spreads between real estate yields and invest-       (Environmental, Social and Governance) has          In this report, we provide in-depth analysis of
                                                       ment grade corporate bonds have never been           seen sustainability and green lending also be-      the different market sectors and compelling
    We entered the ‘roaring 20s’ with a confident      greater.                                             come hot topics. At the World Economic Forum        investment rationale, as well as a complete
    outlook, with total investment turnover of                                                              held in January 2020, climate change was top        investor toolkit of essential local knowledge.
    €7.3bn recorded in 2019 and the market dis-        Still, there are some challenges on the hori-        of the agenda, with the top 5 global risks all      Our sincere gratitude goes also to EY, Eugene F.
    playing few signs of weakness. As Europe’s         zon for real estate, including issues related        identified as ‘green’.                              Collins Solicitors, AIB and IDA Ireland for their
    fastest growing economy for six consecutive        to housing, climate change and sustainabil-                                                              various expert contributions to this edition of
    years, the Irish commercial property market is     ity as well as the outcome of Brexit negoti-         When it comes to climate change, real estate        the Investing in Dublin guide.
    increasingly on the radar of international in-     ations and how that may impact on the Irish          is viewed as a major offender, with the indus-
    vestors. A low-risk option with healthy occupier   market. Progress however is being made on            try challenged to place a greater emphasis          We hope it provides some useful insight to the
    demand and favourable demographics, our safe       national issues, including housing provision,        on greener, more sustainable, carbon neutral        Irish real estate market, and we look forward
    and stable society, common law legal system        and climate change too is a concern that Irish       buildings, in order to satisfy demand from so-      to bringing our vast domestic and international
    and straightforward tax regime add to market       Government, society and enterprise are ad-           ciety, regulators and investors. Obvious issues     commercial property expertise to your real es-
    appeal.                                            dressing.                                            arise around dealing with existing stock; in-       tate needs going forward.
6   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                 INTRODUCTION |
                                                                                                                                                                                    7

    IRELAND
    AND DUBLIN                                                                            #1    IN THE WORLD                        #1      IN THE WORLD
    BY NUMBERS                                                                            for inward investment
                                                                                          by quality and value1
                                                                                                                                    for attracting and
                                                                                                                                    retaining talent1

                                                                                          #6      IN THE WORLD
                                                                                          in terms of economic
                                                                                                                                    #1      IN THE WORLD
                                                                                                                                    for investment
                                                                                          freedom2                                  incentives1
       In the      TOP 15
       most innovative
       countries
       in the world3

                                                                                          7th     IN THE WORLD
                                                                                          most competitive
                                                                                          economy1
                                                                                                                                        1 IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2019
                                                                                                                                        2 Economic Freedom Index 2019
                                                                                                                                        3 Global Innovation Index 2019

                                   The TOP 5 global     14 of the top 15 medical     ALL of the top    8 of the top 10 industrial      18 of the top 25 financial
    IRELAND                        software companies    technology companies      pharma companies      automation companies               services companies

    IS HOME TO:
8   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                         INTRODUCTION |   9

                                                                                                          COMMERCIAL PROPERTY

     #1
    for Brexit relocation
                                            #3
                                            in European Cities
                                                                         4.93m    Population of Ireland
                                                                                                          €7.3bn investment turnover4
                                                                                                          in Ireland in 2019
    decisions among financial
                                            and Regions of the Future6
    services firms5
                                                                                                               43% office
                                                                                                               36% residential
                                                                         Youngest population
                                                                         in Europe:                            9% retail
                                            #5
                                            in top 10 global FinTech
                                                                         33%
                                                                         of population under
                                                                         25 years of age
                                                                                                          Dublin represented 88% of total
                                                                                                          turnover
                                            Locations of the Future7

                                                                                                          DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET
                                                                         1.9m inhabitants
                                                                         in the Greater Dublin Area             309,847m2 take-up in 2019
                                   DUBLIN                                40% of total
                                                                         population of Ireland                  53% TMT

                                            #8
                                            in the world for career
                                                                         Public transport
                                                                                                                18% public sector
                                                                                                                220,000m2 delivered in 2019
                                            opportunities8
                                                                         trips in Dublin
                                                                         reached
                                                                         243 million
                                                                         in 2019 (+8.7%)

                                                                                                               1 IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2019

    IRELAND AND DUBLIN                                                                                         2 Economic Freedom Index 2019
                                                                                                               3 Global Innovation Index 2019
                                                                                                               4 Includes residential investments (e.g. PRS)
                                                                                                               5 EY Financial Services Brexit Tracker 2019

    BY NUMBERS
                                                                                                               6 Financial Times fDi European Cities and
                                                                                                                 Regions of the Future 2020/21
                                                                                                               7 Financial Times fDi FinTech Locations
                                                                                                                 of the Future 2019/2020
                                                                                                               8 EY-DKM Dublin Economic Monitor 2020
10   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                         OVERVIEW |   11

     10 KEY REASONS                                                                                         Europe. The climate is temperate and is gen-
                                                                                                            erally spared from natural disaster and Ireland
                                                                                                            consistently ranks highly on the Global Peace
                                                                                                            Index making it one of the world’s safest coun-
                                                                                                                                                                 half of 2019 with banks now being charged a
                                                                                                                                                                 premium to deposit liquid assets with the Eu-
                                                                                                                                                                 ropean Central Bank. The consensus is that
                                                                                                                                                                 this period of low interest rates is likely to last

     TO INVEST                                                                                              tries in which to live. This marks Dublin out as
                                                                                                            the optimal place for investors seeking to min-
                                                                                                            imise uncertainties from external global and
                                                                                                                                                                 into 2020 and beyond, supported by monetary
                                                                                                                                                                 policy, moderate economic growth, low infla-
                                                                                                                                                                 tion, ongoing risk aversion and the continued

     IN IRELAND
                                                                                                            geopolitical risks.                                  abundance of global liquidity. In light of this,
                                                                                                                                                                 a natural gravitation towards investment in

                                                                                                            4   A SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                MARKET
                                                                                                                                                                 real estate is likely to continue thanks to the
                                                                                                                                                                 secure income stream and higher return on
                                                                                                                                                                 investment on offer. Ireland is well positioned
                                                                                                            Ireland has demonstrated a remarkable real           to benefit from the abundance of capital which
                                                                                                            estate recovery with investment in commer-           overseas investors are seeking to deploy in real
                                                                                                            cial real estate reaching a record €7.3 billion in   estate in this low interest rate environment.
                                                                                                            2019. This represents an increase of 97% rela-
                                                                                                            tive to 2018. The Dublin market has a good de-
                                                                                                            gree of liquidity with foreign equity investing in
                                                                                                                                                                 5   DIVERSE AND HEALTHY LEVEL

     1   EUROPE’S FASTEST GROWING
         ECONOMY
                                                       2   FAVOURABLE DEMOGRAPHICS
                                                                                                            tandem with domestic investors. There is also
                                                                                                            a significant spread between prime real estate
                                                                                                                                                                     OF OCCUPIER DEMAND
                                                                                                                                                                 As the urbanisation of Irish society continues,
                                                       Ireland has the youngest population in Europe        yields and long-term investment grade bonds          the Dublin office market is experiencing a long-
     The Irish economy has recorded several years      with a third of the population under 25 years’       demonstrating a high degree of relative value        term trend in the expansion of global Tech-
     of strong, sustainable growth with 2019 the       old making Ireland’s dependency ratio very fa-       in the Irish market.                                 nology Media and Telecommunications (TMT)
     sixth consecutive year in which Ireland has       vourable. Ireland’s population is forecast to rise                                                        companies, such as Amazon, Facebook, LinkedIn
     emerged as the fastest growing economy in the     by one million people by 2040 with the pace of       Historically low interest rate policies have gone    and Salesforce, who have all progressed plans
     Eurozone. Irish GDP rose by 8.2% in 2018 and      growth expected to be stronger in Dublin and         hand in hand with economic weakness and low          to create major office campuses for their EMEA
     by a further 5.5% in 2019, supported by rising    the surrounding areas, where almost 40% of           inflation across Europe. The 10-year German          headquarters in Dublin in recent years. These
     employment and wages, moderate inflation and      the population live and work. Ireland’s young        bond yield was negative throughout the latter        have become the driving force of Dublin’s oc-
     rising investment from both the government        workforce is very adaptable and highly edu-
     and from foreign investors. GDP is expected to    cated with Ireland’s education system ranked
     be negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pan-       amongst the top 10 in the world. Ireland also
     demic however this will be on a global scale.     holds the second highest rate of tertiary educa-
     The full impact of this remains to be seen.       tion attainment in the EU.

     Ireland is now one of the only English-speaking
     countries in the Eurozone and has been ranked
                                                       3   DOMESTIC STABILITY
     first in the world for attracting and retaining   Ireland offers a high degree of economic and
     talent. Dublin has experienced a significant      political stability with the benefit of a common
     influx of major technology, pharmaceutical and    law legal system and favourable tax structure
     financial companies over recent years. This       which is relatively straight forward to under-
     supports a robust office occupier market which    stand. Ireland is strongly aligned with the Eu-
     in turn enhances Ireland’s attractiveness from    ropean Union and benefits from the common
     an investment perspective.                        trade area and access to talent from across
12   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                      OVERVIEW |   13

     cupational market and backbone of commerce          assist those affected and encourage employers       Dublin in particular. This in turn has provided
     and innovation.                                     to retain their staff where possible. It is hoped
                                                         that this will lead to a more rapid recovery once
                                                                                                             opportunities for investors in the form of in-
                                                                                                             vestment and forward funding opportunies in
                                                                                                                                                                 10     AN INCREASING ACCESS TO DEBT
     The Dublin office market is very varied in its      the virus has come under control.                   the build-to-rent (BTR) and purpose-built stu-      With the improving sentiment in the invest-
     occupier makeup, unlike other European capi-                                                            dent accommodation (PBSA) sectors. The resi-        ment market the availability of debt has contin-
     tal cities which tend to be dominated by finan-
     cial and professional services. Office take-up in
                                                         7   INCREASING FOCUS ON ESG
                                                                                                             dential sector accounted for 36% of total turn-
                                                                                                             over in 2019 with Irish and overseas investors
                                                                                                                                                                 ued to grow. We are in a relatively low interest
                                                                                                                                                                 rate cycle coupled with tight lending margins
     Dublin reached close to 310,000 sq.m in 2019        The Irish real estate sector is experiencing an     alike now recognising the appeal of the stable,     as banks look to grow their loan books on a se-
     marking the third strongest year on record,         increasing focus and demand for sustainability,     long-term returns on offer from this growing        lective basis after years of deleveraging. This
     with TMT companies accounting for more than         supported by the introduction of Near Zero          market sector.                                      has translated into borrowers being able to se-
     half of this space. Large financial organisations   Energy Building (NZEB) regulations. More than                                                           cure attractive financing terms on core Dublin
     are located all around Dublin, while State enti-    500,000 sq.m of new or refurbished Grade A          The continuing emergence of technology as a         assets. With city centre properties generally
     ties also expanded rapidly in 2019 accounting       office space has been delivered in Dublin during    solution to overcome challenges in the real es-     having a stable and diversified income profile
     for 18% of take-up.                                 the past three years, with speculative office       tate industry is disrupting traditional methods     there is an increasing number of both local and
                                                         development now well underway in regional           and shaping the Irish and global real estate        foreign financial institutions who are offering
     In Ireland commercial office leases are gener-      locations too. With the advent of global building   sectors. Irish developers are increasingly imple-   competitive debt terms.
     ally longer than in most continental markets        standards such as LEED, BREEAM and WELL             menting ‘smart’ technology which in turn im-
     (typically 25 years with a break after 10-12        certification, these offices are being designed     pacts on the attractiveness and efficiency of new
     years) and lease terms are generally more fa-       and built at a quality and specification that can   properties and ultimately on investment values.
     vourable to the investor than the equivalent in     be understood and valued by global occupiers
     other countries. Other things being equal, in-
     vesting in Dublin can provide a further element
                                                         and investors alike.
                                                                                                             9   FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
     of medium-term income stability.                    Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)          Ireland is ranked No. 1 in the world in terms
                                                         factors have become a key determinant in in-        of the total value of Foreign Direct Investment

     6   STRONG CONSUMER ECONOMY
                                                         vestment decisions thanks to a growing empha-
                                                         sis on and understanding of the negative impact
                                                                                                             projects, while Dublin has separately been
                                                                                                             ranked No. 3 overall in the fDi Intelligence Eu-
     Steady gains in employment levels, incomes          of climate change. Investors want to ensure that    ropean Cities of the Future ranking and No. 1
     and expenditure across Ireland are having a         these factors have been taken into account and      for Brexit relocation decisions among financial
     knock-on effect on the Irish consumer economy,      will be mitigated throughout the life-cycle of      services firms.
     which, despite considerable global uncertainty      their properties. There has been increased focus
     and fluctuating consumer sentiment, has been        on ‘impact investing’, which involves the imple-    Ireland generates substantial inward invest-
     performing considerably well in recent years.       mentation of benchmarking strategies such as        ment year upon year with strengths in key
                                                         the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark     high-value sectors such as ICT, financial and
     The latest figures from the Central Statistics      (GRESB) or the creation of bespoke investment       business services and life sciences. Ireland has
     Office (CSO) show employment levels to have         criteria to ensure that investment portfolios       become the global technology hub of choice
     increased by 3.5% during 2019 with a record         meet certain ESG standards. This is set to con-     when it comes to attracting the strategic busi-
     2.36 million people in employment, while aver-      tinue to grow during 2020 and beyond.               ness activities of TMT companies and Dublin
     age earnings have also increased by 3.5%. This                                                          has earned the reputation for being the heart
     led to growth in gross disposable incomes of
     4.8%. While the economy has been badly im-
                                                         8   MARKET DISRUPTERS AND THE
                                                             ALTERNATIVE
                                                                                                             of TMT in Europe.

                                                                                                                                                                 Damien McCaffrey
     pacted by the global COVID-19 pandemic, with
     store closures leading to widespread job loss-      A lack of supply has led a surge in residential                                                         Director, Investment
     es, the government has made great efforts to        development activity across Ireland and in                                                              BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland
14   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                          INTRODUCTION |   15

                                         CUTTING-EDGE
                                    GLOBAL COMPANIES
                                         With a presence in Ireland
16   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                           OVERVIEW |   17

               IDA IRELAND:                                                                                  competitive global environment. Dublin has long
                                                                                                             since been a location of choice for many multi-
                                                                                                             nationals looking to invest and reinvest in Ire-
                                                                                                             land to service the European marketplace.
                                                                                                                                                                   stakeholders, both public and private, in respect
                                                                                                                                                                   of education, infrastructure, utilities, enterprise
                                                                                                                                                                   supports and placemaking. Consequently Dublin
                                                                                                                                                                   and its world class business ecosystem often

             DUBLIN REMAINS                                                                                  2019 saw that portfolio further enhanced with
                                                                                                             significant investments from the likes of Linke-
                                                                                                                                                                   attract the focus and inquisitive glare of com-
                                                                                                                                                                   petitor jurisdictions and their representatives. In
                                                                                                                                                                   order for the rest of the country to thrive, we

        THE LOCATION OF CHOICE FOR                                                                           dIn, Indeed, Salesforce, LogMeIn, and Facebook
                                                                                                             to name a few. Dublin’s credibility and value
                                                                                                             proposition for FDI is particularly impressive
                                                                                                             when you consider the diverse range of projects
                                                                                                                                                                   must continue to invest in making Dublin a great
                                                                                                                                                                   place to live and work. Other global cities are
                                                                                                                                                                   already doing this and ‘placemaking’ is becom-
                                                                                                                                                                   ing a real area of competitive advantage in cities

        FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT                                                                            it wins for ‘Ireland Inc.’ from a wide range of
                                                                                                             sectors and activities such as Digital Media, Life
                                                                                                             Sciences, International Financial Services and
                                                                                                             Information & Communications Technology (ICT),
                                                                                                                                                                   across the world. We must also ensure that there
                                                                                                                                                                   is solid vision for Dublin so that it can continue
                                                                                                                                                                   to act as a magnet for investment.

                                                                                                             amongst others.                                       We must not be complacent however when it
                                                                                                                                                                   comes to sustaining our competitive position and
                                                                                                             Dublin’s track record, particularly in respect of     in enhancing our value proposition for the ever
                                                                                                             supporting many leading technology companies’         complex and evolving needs of FDI. Dublin must
                         Dublin continued to absorb a significant                                            EMEA operations (e.g. Google, Facebook and            continue to lead the way in supporting the next
                         amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)                                           LinkedIn) and attracting the next wave of glob-       wave of investments in commercial and residen-
                         in 2019. It is the country’s leading city                                           al technology companies such as HubSpot and           tial property solutions that meet the needs of
                         of international scale and remains                                                  Airbnb, has seen parts of the city rebranded as       mobile investments and their employees.
                         an attractive place for investors to locate.                                        the ‘Silicon Docks’. This is an illustration of the
                                                                                                             hive of activity and vibrancy that these compa-       Investments from the likes of Ronan Group Real
                                                                                                             nies have brought to a small part of the city and     Estate (RGRE), Kennedy Wilson, IPUT, Marlet,
                                                                                                             is regularly referenced in many corporate board       Ballymore, NAMA and the various REITs active
                                                                                                             rooms all over the world.                             in the Irish market, amongst many others are
     The FDI performance over the past five years       Dublin shows a remarkable capacity to attract        It should be noted that the success of Dublin over    crucial for future proofing Dublin’s capacity and
     has been unprecedented. Employment levels in       foreign direct investment and has developed an       many years is a result of sustained investment        competitiveness in sustaining and growing the
     IDA Ireland’s client companies has now reached     international reputation as a hub for Financial      and a ‘can do’ attitude and partnership by all
     245,096 which is the highest ever number em-       Services and FinTech, Technology and Interna-
     ployed in the multinational sector, exceeding      tional Operations centres, amongst others. Com-
     targets set by the government contained in IDA     panies who choose to locate parts of their busi-
     Ireland’s Strategy, Winning: Foreign Direct In-    ness in Dublin include its rich and diverse talent
     vestment 2015-2019.                                pool and the attractive business environment as
                                                        key factors in their investment decisions.
     End of year results published in January show
     another strong performance in 2019, which          The success of Dublin in 2019 in attracting mo-
     saw 250 investments made with 21,844 jobs          bile foreign direct investment is nothing new in
     created in FDI companies in the final year of      that the capital has regularly represented Ire-
     IDA Ireland’s current strategy. The net gain was   land’s strongest card when it comes to compet-
     13,867 additional jobs.                            ing for ‘hard won’ mobile investments in a highly
18   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                      OVERVIEW |   19

     existing base of FDI whilst remaining relevant
     and competitive in relation to winning new name
     investment flows as they present themselves.
     The city and its accessible suburbs are set to
                                                             We were fortunate to have entered 2020 on the
                                                             back of strong growth. Our value proposition
                                                             continues to be strong, we are well positioned
                                                             as a gateway location to Europe and are com-
                                                                                                               IRELAND’S INVESTMENT
     undergo something of a transformation over the
     next number of years with the scale of planned
     development. It is our collective responsibility
     to ensure placemaking, sustainability and urban
                                                             mitted members of the EU. We are business
                                                             friendly and supportive. Talent continues to be
                                                             an important asset. Being competitive is more
                                                             important than ever for our client companies
                                                                                                               MARKET OVERVIEW 2019
     excellence are at the core of every urban devel-        to continue to grow and develop and as Ireland
     opment. The successful adoption of the govern-          expands its footprint across the globe, seeking
     ment’s Urban Development and Building Height            out new markets from which to win investment.
     Guidelines enabling compact growth through                                                                              Several years of strong, sustainable growth, rising
     height and density in the most appropriate loca-                                                                        employment and wages, and moderate inflation
     tions is a positive first step in delivering this am-                                                                   underpin Ireland’s healthy economy. Against this
     bition. The sense of opportunity is everywhere
                                                                                                                             backdrop, the past year has been characterised
     at present in relation to the property market.
                                                                                                                             by record levels of investment in Irish real estate.
     Finally, talent remains the biggest driver for IDA
     client companies in their international invest-
     ment location decisions. We must be conscious
     that attracting the right talent is not only a
                                                             Damien Kilgannon
     function of the job opportunity itself, but very                                                          Total investment in Irish commercial real                                     The number of mega-deals (€100m+) contin-
     much a function of the attractiveness of the            Head of Property                                  estate (including residential investments)                                    ues to increase demonstrating high liquidity
                                                             IDA Ireland
     location in which the job opportunity presents.                                                           reached a record €7.3 billion in 2019. This total                             in the market with 18 such deals completed
     In this regard it is important to note that the                                                           represents an increase of 97% or near-doubling                                during the year accounting for 64% of turnover.
     availability of quality and affordable residential                                                        of turnover relative to the previous year and                                 This has been driven by strong competition for
     accommodation is a key competitiveness factor                                                             marks the sixth consecutive year in which total                               prime office and PRS assets in particular, from
     for FDI.                                                                                                  turnover exceeded the ten-year average.                                       Irish and international investors from an in-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       creasingly varied spread of countries.
     Our strategy for the period 2020-2024 will be                                                             Total annual investment turnover (€M)
     informed by the backdrop of the COVID-19 pan-                                                             €8,000                                                                                     Dublin remains the most popular lo-
     demic and the as yet-to-be fully determined                                                               €7,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          cation for investment, accounting for
     impact it will have on the Irish and global                                                                                                                                                          €3.2 billion or 88% of total turnover.
                                                                                                               €6,000
     economies and businesses. We had already ob-                                                                                                                                                         While there has been less investment
     served significant downside risk in the market-                                                           €5,000                                                                                     in regional locations, it is worth not-
     place over the next five-year period with those                                                           €4,000                                                                                     ing that this is a factor of a lack of
     risks emanating from the possibility of an eco-                                                           €3,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          prime opportunities coming to mar-
     nomic correction in key source markets, contin-                                                                                                                                                      ket as opposed to a lack of interest
                                                                                                               €2,000
     ued trade tensions, subdued global economic                                                                                                                                                          among investors. We are now seeing
     growth and from domestic challenges related                                                               €1,000                                                                                     a rise in speculative investment in
     to competitiveness and the carrying capacity of                                                             €-                                                                                       Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford
                                                                                                                        2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
     the economy.                                                                                                                                                                                         which, along with further progress
                                                                                                               Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research                                                   on the government’s Ireland 2040 re-
20   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                    OVERVIEW |    21

     gional development plans, will provide further                           DWS, Patrizia and Deka Immobilien were par-             We are seeing a notable shift towards the devel-     vestment activity. It is unlikely that Q1 turn-
     opportunities for investors in the coming years.                         ticularly active in the Irish market in 2019, ac-       opment of more mixed-use assets such as Cen-         over will be impacted to a large extent, as a
                                                                              counting for more than €1.1 billion or 15% of           tral Plaza and the Clerys Quarter that comprise      number of large transactions were carried over
                                                                                            total turnover. This is a significant     retail, office, leisure and residential elements.    from last year which have already completed.
                            3%
                                                                                            increase of 163% relative to 2018         This diversification of asset types puts an em-      However, Q2 should see a notable slowdown in
                       4%                                          Turnover by Sector
                 5%                                                (% value of turnover)    when investment from Germany              phasis on ‘place-making’, which is attractive to     activity, due to the impact of uncertainty which
                                                                                            reached €428 million.                     investors as it allows schemes to be active at all   will suspend investment decisions.
            9%                                                        Office                                                           times, rather than just during the day or night.
                                                            43%       Residential
                                                                                               Core CBD office assets maintain                                                             It is hoped that, provided the current strict
                                                                      Retail
                                                                                               their allure, seen as defensive        The strong growth in investment into Irish real      measures are adhered to and the number of
                                                                      Mixed Portfolio
      36%                                                                                      investments with domestic and          estate is in stark contrast with the situation       cases levels off in the coming weeks, the mar-
                                                                      Industrial & Logistics
                                                                                               overseas investors alike compet-       being experienced in the UK where commercial         ket will begin to recover towards the end of Q2,
                                                                      Mixed-Use
                                                                                               ing for best-in-class stock. This is   property investment volumes declined by an           leading to a surge in pent up activity by Q3.
                                                                      Other
                                                                                               evidenced by recent portfolio sales    estimated 18% annually. Ireland represents a
                                                                                               as well as the high values achieved    compelling alternative to the UK for overseas        Externally, Brexit also continues to pose a
                                                                                               for prime assets such as Five Han-     investors who are attracted by the underlying        threat to the Irish economy which may impact
                                                                                               over Quay and The Reflector. As a      strength of the Irish economy and comforted by       on the investment market. The formal exit took
                                      18                                                       result, despite a shift towards res-   the fact that Ireland’s legal system is similar      place on January 31st 2020 and we have now
                 41                                               Investment Transacions       idential investment during 2019,       to those in the US and the UK which facilitates      entered the transition period in which the UK
                                             14
                             4%                                   by Lot Size
                        4%
                                                                  (No. of Transactions,        the office sector again emerged as     investment.                                          and the EU negotiate withdrawal terms. The
                                                                  % value of turnover)         the top performer accounting for                                                            transition period will last until December 31st
                      14%        1%
                                                       33           €100m+                     43% of total turnover.                                                                      2020, but may be extended by up to two years.
                            % OF TOTAL
                                                                    €50-100m
                                                                                                                                      OUTLOOK 2020                                         With no clear consensus on the exact with-
                            TURNOVER
                 13%                                                €20-50m
            47
                                           64%                                               The residential sector continued         Irish commercial real estate continued to deliv-     drawal agreement as yet, the effects of Brexit
                                                                    €10-20m
                                                                    €3-10m
                                                                                             to attract strong interest in 2019       er exceptional returns throughout 2019, against      on the Irish market remain to be seen. Never-
                                                  23
                                                                    €1-3m                    with €2.7 billion invested repre-        a backdrop of strong political, social and eco-      theless, strong domestic economic fundamen-
22   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                    OVERVIEW |   23

     SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT SALES – 2019
     TOP 5 OFFICE TRANSACTIONS                                                                            TOP 5 RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS
      PROP ER T Y                                            P RI C E   YIELD     P U RC HA S ER          P ROP ERT Y                                               P R IC E       Y I EL D   P U R CH A S ER

                              Project Cedar Office           €530m      c. 5.0%   Blackstone                            XVI Portfolio,                              €285m          4.0%       IRES REIT
                              Portfolio,                                                                                Dublin
                              Dublin City Centre

                              Five Hanover Quay,             €197m      4.1%      Union Investment                      Project Vert: 382 units at Elmfield,        €216.1m        c. 3.5%    IRES REIT
                              Dublin 2                                                                                  Leopardstown & Honeypark, Dún
                                                                                                                        Laoghaire, Co. Dublin

                              Nova Atria Buildings,          €167m      c. 5.7%   Mapletree                             Dublin Landings PRS,                        €175.5m        4.1%       Greystar
                              Sandyford,                                                                                North Wall Quay, Dublin 1
                              Dublin 18

                              The Reflector, Hanover Quay,   €155m      4.2%      Deka Immobilien                       Point Campus Student                        €171m          c. 4.75% DWS
                              Dublin 2                                                                                  Accommodation,
                                                                                                                        Dublin 1

                              Charlemont Exchange,           €145m      4.5%      Vestas Investment                     214 units at The Fairways,                  €108m          4.9%       DWS
                              Dublin 2                                            Management                            Dún Laoghaire, Co. Dublin

     TOP 5 RETAIL TRANSACTIONS                                                                            TOP 5 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS TRANSACTIONS
      PR O PERT Y                                            PR IC E    YIELD     P U RC H AS ER          P ROP ERT Y                                    P R I CE       Y IE L D    P U R CH AS ER

                              St. Stephen’s Green            €175.5m    c. 4.0%   Davy                                  Tesco Distribution Centre,       €160m          c. 4.3%     KTB Investments and
                              Shopping Centre,                                                                          Donabate, Co. Dublin                                        Securities & KTB Asset
                              Dublin 2                                                                                                                                              Management

                              Pavilions Shopping Centre      €71m       4.9%      Irish Life Investment                 Compass Portfolio: Units at      €30.8m         5.1%        M7 Real Estate
                              (25%), Swords, Co. Dublin                           Managers                              Greenogue Business Park and
                                                                                                                        North Park, Co. Dublin

                              Mahon Point Retail Park,       €56m       7.0%      IPUT                                  Unit at Dublin Airport           €18.5m         -           DWS
                              Cork                                                                                      Logistics Park, Co. Dublin

                              Northside Shopping Centre,     €49.2m     3.6%      AM Alpha                              Units 4 & 5 Mygan Business       €11.2m         4.8%        Confidential
                              Coolock, Dublin 17                                                                        Park, Dublin 11

                              7-9 Henry Street,              €44.3m     3.6%      DWS                                   Unit 1 Stadium Business          €10.5m         6.5%        Confidential
                              Dublin 1                                                                                  Park, Dublin 15

                                                                                                                                                 Note: Large mixed-asset portfolio sales not included.
24   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                     GUIDE TO DUBLIN |   25

     DUBLIN’S
     OFFICE MARKET
                          2019 was another exceptional year
                          for the Dublin office market with strong
                          occupier demand and a healthy development
                          pipeline contributing to the total take-up
                          of close to 310,000 sq.m by year-end.

     2019 was the third strongest year on record with    Despite the surge in demand, limited new of-                                                            South County Office Campus, Sandyford, Dublin 18
     take-up again well exceeding the ten-year av-       fice buildings were constructed between 2007
     erage. There were 7 ‘mega-lettings’ whose size      and 2015 in Dublin due to a shortage of devel-
     exceeded 10,000 sq.m. These deals had a signif-     opment finance and insufficient rental return,
     icant impact on the market in 2019, accounting      causing a massive shift in the landlord’s favour.
     for 52% of take-up. The Technology, Multime-        In 2015, office rents increased by 25% in one       and Mastercard now recognising the appeal of           Building 9 Cherrywood (Hines – 11,000 sq.m)
     dia and Telecommunications (TMT) sector was         year alone with continued growth evident ever       well-connected suburban office locations such          and Nova Atria South (Blackstone – 16,000
     again the top performing sector in 2019 with        since.                                              as the Sandyford Business District where the           sq.m). Areas close to amenities and on good
     more than 165,000 sq.m or 53% of total take-up                                                          TMT sector has accounted for 75% of take-up            public transport lines are considered attractive.
     attributable to this sector. The largest TMT let-   Since 2015, new development has emerged             over the past three years. This trend will con-
     tings were to Salesforce, LinkedIn, Facebook and    across the city skyline to alleviate the demand     tinue to evolve in 2020 as occupiers seek more
     Amazon, which combined represented 115,397          side pressures curtailing the market. Between       cost effective solutions.
                                                                                                                                                                    Brexit
     sq.m or 37% of total take-up.                       2015 and 2019 almost 545,000 sq.m of new or                                                                Brexit is having an impact on the office mar-
                                                         refurbished office space was delivered in Dub-      Increased occupier demand for office space             ket in Dublin in particular with more than 80
                                                         lin, with the majority (76%) of this space having   in non-CBD locations and the availability of           companies having announced plans to move to
     RECENT HISTORY                                      been delivered in the city centre.                  well-serviced and well-located land for devel-         or expand within Dublin since the 2016 vote.
     In 2007, all construction activity in the Irish                                                         opment has led to increased development ac-            BNP Paribas Real Estate have been tracking let-
     property market ceased almost overnight. The                                                            tivity in city fringe and suburban locations. Key      ting activity among these companies and note
     office market was worst affected and prime
                                                         EMERGING TRENDS AND CURRENT                         developments delivered or under construction           that more than 30,000 sq.m has been leased
     rents fell from a high of close to €700 per sq.m
                                                         CYCLE                                               during 2019 include the South County Office            to firms including JP Morgan, Aptiv, Coinbase
     to as little as €323 per sq.m in 2010 with lim-     The focus of occupier demand has been large-        Campus (Mr. Cyril McGuire - 28,000 sq.m), Two          and Bank of America since the vote. In Q3 2019
     ited take-up and vacancy rates fluctuating to       ly on the city centre since 2015 but 2018/19        & Three Dublin Airport Central (Dublin Airport         UK law firm DLA Piper signed a lease for a new
     over 25%. In 2011 / 2012, the market started        saw strong growth in take-up in in city fringe      Authority – 20,000 sq.m), Block I Central Park         office in Dublin 2. DLA Piper follow other UK-
     to emerge from its slumber and demand in-           and suburban districts, which accounted for         (Green REIT / Henderson Park – 10,000 sq.m),           based law firms Pinsent Masons, Fieldfisher
     creased steadily buoyed by favourable take-up       29% of take-up in 2019. The south suburbs in        Termini (Aldgate Developments / Starwood -             and Simmons & Simmons who have also set
     from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) occupiers      particular have seen increased activity with        20,500 sq.m), The Seamark Building, Elm Park           up new bases here in recent years. Ireland has
     predominantly.                                      global companies including Facebook, Google         (Chartered Land / Starwood – 17,000 sq.m),             emerged as an attractive option for such firms
€269 p.s.m.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     €25 p.s.f.                                                                                     €377 p.s.m.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             €35 p.s.f.

26   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            €355 p.s.m. €484 p.s.m.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            PARNELL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CONNOLLY                                                                                                                                                          GUIDE TO DUBLIN |                                                    27
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               €33 p.s.f.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                €45 p.s.f.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     BOT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    O’CONNELL                                                                                                    TAL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 E L
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     L
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 S T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        UPPER                                                                            MARLBOROUGH                                                                      €538 p.s.m. €570 p.s.m.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        O'C
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     P A                                                                                                                                                                                                                     €50 p.s.f.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              €549 p.s.m.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 €53 p.s.f.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               NEL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    €51 p.s.f.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ABBEY ST                              S T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               €517 p.s.m.*

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   L S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     E Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               A B B
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ST

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 €377 p.s.m.        HEN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        RY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              O’CONNELL                                                                   €484 p.s.m.                                                                     GEORGE’S DOCK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     €48 p.s.f.*
     in light of Brexit thanks to its common law and      able. Rental levels in excess of these figures will                   €323 p.s.m.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             €35 p.s.f.                                            GPO                                                                        €45 p.s.f.

                                                                                                                                                                                    ST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            S T                                                                                                                                                                                                  MAYOR SQUARE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     €484 p.s.m.*

                                                                                                                                                                                 EL
                                                                                                                                   €30 p.s.f.      €388 p.s.m.                                                                                               J E R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   V I S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SPENCER DOCK

                                                                                                                                                                             CAP
     English-language legal system.                       be achieved in certain instances where occu-                                                €36 p.s.f.                                                                                                                                                    €45 p.s.f.*                                     €570 p.s.m.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 THE POINT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            €53 p.s.f.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             JERVIS
                                                          piers lease premium penthouse suites or can                            SMITHFIELD                                                                                                                                                                                           €527 p.s.m.                                        TARA ST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               C I T
                                                                                                                                                   FOUR COURTS                                                                                                                                                                                  €49 p.s.f.                                                                                                           Y   Q U A

     The current tech boom in Dublin is also likely to    avail of attractive lease flexibility and existing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Y

     be in part linked to Brexit with US multination-     quality fit-outs. Inducements by way of rent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        TRINITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             €549 p.s.m.
     als expanding rapidly in Ireland rather than in      free are standard and are generally between                                                                                                          D A M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     E       S T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     €51 p.s.f.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         P E

     the UK with a view to retaining access to Euro-      6-9 months for standard lettings in CBD and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             A R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 S E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                PEARSE                                                                               S T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               S T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      €646 p.s.m.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              S T
     pean markets and talent.                             12 months upwards for prime suburban offices.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           I A
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                €60 p.s.f.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      S T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       L L
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       E ’

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   W I
                                                                                                                                                                       S T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       R G
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       R I N

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   T O
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             G S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             DAWSON

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    H
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 E N

                                                                                                                                                                         K

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 G E O
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     D

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                U T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               A F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         R D

                                                                                                                                                                   R I C

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           G R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            S O
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       G R E A T
                                                                                                                                                             P A T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               €614 p.s.m.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  €570 p.s.m.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        €57 p.s.f.
     Serviced Offices                                                   Total take-up 2019:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    S O U T H
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   €53 p.s.f.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GRAND CANAL DOCK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ST. STEPHEN’S GREEN                                                                                                                           M

                                                                         309,847M 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             O

     The serviced office or co-working sector contin-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 U
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      L O

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       N
                                                                                                                                                                                             C U                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            W

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   IO
                                                                                                                                                                                                 F F E                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    R

     ues to have a visible impact on the Dublin office
                                                                                                                                                                                                               S T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               A V E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     B A T H

     market with existing operators including We-
                                                                          Prime rents 2019:

                                                                                                                                                                                         S T
     Work and Iconic Offices as well as new entrants

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                 E S B U R

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     L
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         €581 p.s.m.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    P
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        R D
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    N

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                M
     Knotel leasing a combined 8,287 sq.m during                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                T O

                                                                                                        2                                                                                                                                                       €603 p.s.m.
                                                                            €670/M

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              I A
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            G

                                                                                                                                                                                         H E Y T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    D I
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   €54 p.s.f.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           L
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                A D

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        I L
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           €56 p.s.f.                                                                                                                                                                                                                       H

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Z
     2019. This is a marked decline relative to 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 I T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LANSDOWNE ROAD

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     HARCOURT
     which saw more than 40,000 sq.m leased to                                                                                       DART & LUAS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         P E M

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                R D
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               B R O
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         R D                                                                                         K E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     L                                                                                                        R D
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 P I
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             E S

                                                                                                                                     OFFICE RENTS MAP

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               S H E L B O U R N E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         M

     such companies. In total, serviced office provid-    The BNP Paribas Real Estate Dart & Luas Office
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            €592 p.s.m.
     ers now occupy more than 120,000 sq.m across         Rental Price Map1 charts average rental levels                             DUBLIN CITY CENTRE                                                                                                                                                                                     €55 p.s.f.

     Dublin with a number of further deals in pro-        2017-2019 along the various public transport                                                                                                                                                                                             CHARLEMONT

     gress. So, despite substantial doubts over the       lines in Dublin. This map aims to demonstrate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: BNPPRE Research
     co-working model during 2019, this buoyant           the spread between headline rents achieved in
     market trend looks set to last.                      prime CBD locations (with the most prime loca-                                        including a standard 12 month notice period. In                                                                                                                                                                                                 fice market and are becoming more common-
                                                          tion being in the Dawson Street area) vis-à-vis                                       many cases, a rental penalty may be a condi-                                                                                                                                                                                                    place. In default of agreement there is a provi-
     The role of the serviced office sector is nota-      those being achieved in other parts of Dublin.                                        tion of the break option particularly in the city                                                                                                                                                                                               sion in the lease for referral to third party and
     ble in relation to Brexit with many of the Brexit    Rents in city fringe and suburban locations are                                       centre. Inducements by way of rent free periods                                                                                                                                                                                                 the lease will dictate whether an arbitrator or
     movers we have identified currently operating        lower but are rising while CBD rents remain                                           are standard and are generally between 6-9                                                                                                                                                                                                      independent expert will be elected to set the
     out of serviced offices across the city. This is a   stable as occupiers move away from the city                                           months for standard lettings in the CBD and 12                                                                                                                                                                                                  new rent.
     trend that is likely to continue with many com-      centre locations, attracted by the delivery of                                        months upwards for prime suburban offices.
     panies opting to take flexible office space to set   modern office accommodation, improved ac-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             On the basis that tenants occupy premises for
     up their Irish operations before committing to       cessibility and access to talent pools.                                               Upward only rent reviews were prohibited in                                                                                                                                                                                                     a period in excess of 5 years, they have an au-
     a longer lease.                                                                                                                            leases which commenced after the 28th Febru-                                                                                                                                                                                                    tomatic right of renewal by law on expiry of the
                                                          Typical lease terms in the current market are                                         ary 2010. Rent reviews, where they are set out                                                                                                                                                                                                  lease and can apply for a new lease of 20 years
                                                          15-20 years with the earliest breaks for new                                          in leases from February 2010, are to the market                                                                                                                                                                                                 or such lesser term as a tenant may nominate.
     RENTS AND LEASE TERMS                                Grade A developments achievable at year 10.                                           rent on an open market basis (i.e. upwards or                                                                                                                                                                                                   It will not however be fixed for a period of less
     Overall the office sector has seen the strongest     Suburban office space can generally expect to                                         downwards). Rent reviews are usually every 5                                                                                                                                                                                                    than 5 years without the landlords agreement.
     rental recovery of all asset classes with rental     achieve break options closer to year 10 and                                           years. The new rent may be agreed between the                                                                                                                                                                                                   Under recent legislation, all tenants of com-
     values currently at a level that has now sur-        perhaps sooner for secondary office space.                                            landlord and tenant (or respective represent-                                                                                                                                                                                                   mercial premises can contract out of their stat-
     passed the previous peak according to MSCI           Breaks are usually subject to certain conditions                                      atives) and is based primarily on comparable                                                                                                                                                                                                    utory right of renewal providing greater flexibil-
     data. Prime CBD office rents remain in the region    1   DART and LUAS are light rail services operating in Dublin.                        market lettings. The emergence of CPI linked                                                                                                                                                                                                    ity to landlords and tenants when negotiating
     of €670 per sq.m with moderate rental growth             City centre figures are calculated on the basis of net internal                   rent reviews and % cap and collar mechanisms                                                                                                                                                                                                    the terms of the lease.
                                                              area (NIA), while suburban rents are based on the gross
     expected in 2020 as new supply becomes avail-            internal area (GIA), as per market norms.                                         particularly at year 5 has emerged in to the of-
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     SUPPLY                                              being developed with the end user in mind.           occupiers such as Google, Facebook and Mas-
                                                         This means that leasing negotiations can com-        tercard taking large amounts of space in the
     Close to 220,000 sq.m of office space was deliv-    mence earlier than they otherwise would have         south suburbs in particular during 2019. Never-
     ered in 2019, bringing total office stock in Dub-   and allows the occupier to collaborate with the      theless, in contrast with the CBD, several large
     lin to more than 4.2 million sq.m by year-end.      developer throughout the design and construc-        development sites remain active in the suburbs
     Construction is underway on a further 310,000       tion process. In addition, securing a blue-chip      to service continued growth in demand. We
     sq.m of space due for delivery during 2020. Of      tenant cements the eventual investment value         expect rent levels for prime suburban office
     this total, almost 50% is pre-committed which       of the asset with overseas purchasers in par-        developments to continue to increase for this
     further underpins the strength of tenant de-        ticular attracted by the secure and stable long-     reason.
     mand in the Dublin market. This means that          term income on offer.
     despite the significant levels of stock under                                                            The forecast for the Dublin office market re-
     construction, strong demand for office space        There is a growing emphasis on green initia-         mains positive. Foreign Direct Investment,
     and the potential for further growth thanks         tives and smart technology within buildings,         largely from North America but increasingly
     to rapid TMT expansion and Brexit relocations       particularly among global technology and fi-         from the UK and other European locations, re-
     mean Dublin is unlikely to see an oversupply        nance operators. These occupiers are attracted       mains a key driver of demand, while Indigenous
     of office stock any time soon. Despite this, new    by the potential to build a community and scale      growth and Brexit-related actively will further
     office development activity has slowed some-        up quickly and easily without disrupting staff.      support take-up in 2020 and beyond.
     what over the past year with less speculative       BNP Paribas Real Estate see this as a growing
     projects moving on site.                            trend. Similarly, we see the refurbishment and       It is difficult at this point to predict the impact
                                                         repurposing of properties across all sectors as      that the current COVID-19 pandemic will have
     Development during the 2015-2018 period was         a growing trend for 2020. This will be particu-      on the office market. We expect office take-up for
     concentrated around the city centre, with more      larly relevant for the office market in light of     Q1 2020 to be particularly strong, above 100,000
     than 90% of all space delivered in 2018 being       sustainability strategies with older stock re-       sq.m, thanks to the inclusion of a number of
     located in Dublin 1, 2 or 4, largely around the     quiring substantial retrofitting in order to re-     large transactions which were carried over from
     North and South Docks. This is consistent with      main attractive to increasingly ‘green-minded’       Q4 2019. However, the restriction of movement
     the pattern of demand with more than 70% of         occupiers.                                           and closure of non-essential businesses is likely
     take-up occurring in the city centre. Neverthe-                                                          to impact negatively on Q2 take-up with many
     less, as with demand for space and take-up,         With a significant quantum of new office supply      companies suspending leasing transactions until
     and as a result of almost all of the prime city     under construction, the Dublin office market is      the situation becomes more clear.
     centre development sites being accounted for,       expected to function at much more sustaina-
     development began to move out of the city in        ble levels going forward, allowing occupiers         On a broader scale, a large scale ‘work from
     recent years with close to 40% of the space de-     reasonable choice, developers viable margins         home’ experiment has been unexpectedly trig-
     livered during 2019 located in city fringe and      and informed investors competitive returns.          gered which may impact the occupier market in
     suburban locations.                                 The high levels of pre-letting activity on new-      the longer term. On one hand this may prompt
                                                         ly delivered office stock has led to a significant   companies to reconsider prior reservations in
                                                         tightening of supply in city centre locations, in    relation to flexible working arrangements, lead-
     OUTLOOK 2020                                        particular Dublin 1, 2 and 4. With a large pro-      ing to a decline in the amount of space needed.
     Recruitment is becoming an increasingly im-         portion all of the city centre development pipe-     On the other, it may reinforce the value of the
     portant consideration for occupiers and many        line for 2020 already pre-committed, supply          physical office and the benefits associated with
     TMT occupiers are using their real estate to        shortages will push occupiers with large size        a shared workspace. Time will tell.                   Keith O’Neill
     attract and retain staff in a very competitive      requirements to city fringe or prime suburban
                                                                                                                                                                    Executive Director
     environment. We are now seeing a shift to-          locations this year. Similar shortages of space                                                            Head of Office Agency
     wards offices and campus-style developments         are now being seen in suburban location with                                                               BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland
30   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                                 GUIDE TO DUBLIN |   31

     DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET – KEY DISTRICTS
     The Dublin office market provides in excess of 4 million sq.m of office space and can be divided in
     to the following key districts
                                                                                                                            DUBLIN’S
      D ISTR ICT
      Prime CBD
                                    R E N T / SQ.M
                                    €570-700
                                                     C O M ME N T
                                                     The traditional central business district (CBD) is the most historic
                                                     and sought after location within the city. The district surrounds
                                                                                                                            RETAIL MARKET
                                                     St. Stephen’s Green and the main shopping hub of Grafton Street
                                                     in Dublin 2. Office space in this area is at a premium and in high

      South Docks                   €610             Emerged in the early 2000s as an alternative to the traditional
                                                     CBD and at first attracted major legal firms but since has become      Dublin with a vibrant, young and cosmopolitan       braced this model likely to benefit most from a
                                                     the location of choice for the TMT sector. This is the part of the     population is Ireland’s capital city and the pri-   move to online retailing during this period.
                                                     city that is most active in terms of new activity and take-up.         mary retail destination. Approximately 1.9 mil-
                                                                                                                            lion people live in the Greater Dublin Area with    We have already seen short-term impacts on
      North Docks & IFSC            €570             Dublin’s earliest docklands regeneration scheme led to the
                                                                                                                            this figure set to grow to 2.2 million by 2031.     economic growth and business activity with
                                                     development of the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC)
                                                     in the early 1990s. The IFSC is home to some of the world’s most
                                                                                                                                                                                store closures leading to widespread job loss-
                                                     important financial institutions. Since the early 2000s develop-       At the beginning of 2020 the outlook for the        es. On this point, the government have made
                                                     ments have continued beyond the IFSC and eastwards along the           retail market was extremely positive. While         great efforts to assist those affected and it is
                                                     North Docks.                                                           the retail sector may have been undergoing a        hoped that in many cases the impact will only
                                                                                                                            well-documented structural shift, the consumer      be temporary. Long-term consequences are
      Ballsbridge / Dublin 4        €580             Dublin 4 largely provides high-end residential accommodation
                                                     with a growing commercial district largely centered around Balls-      economy was in a healthy place with just about      still unknown, however the current consensus
                                                     bridge. This is an affluent part of town with growing appeal and       every measurable KPI looking favourable. This       amongst economic commentators is that a re-
                                                     increasing levels of construction activity.                            coupled with a well-documented undersupply          bound in the global economy will commence in
                                                                                                                            of prime retail property, a legacy of underde-      H2 2020.
      North Suburbs                 €250-355         Home to the city’s airport, this part of Dublin is seeing increased
                                                                                                                            velopment following the ‘Noughties’ recession,
                                                     levels of activity. The new development at Dublin Airport Central
                                                                                                                            meant that retailers in almost all sectors were     When the clouds disperse on COVID-19, other
                                                     and the planned Metro North rail line are likely to be the catalyst
                                                                                                                            performing well.                                    realities such as Brexit will need to be met head
                                                     for further new development.
                                                                                                                                                                                on by retailers. This chapter will outline the dy-
      South Suburbs                 €250-320         The most established “out-of-town” location for occupiers, it has      Events of recent weeks following the global         namics of the Dublin retail market, which are
                                                     seen notable take-up in the last 18 months and continues to see        outbreak of COVID-19 have caused enormous           evolving alongside consumer behaviours and
                                                     considerable demand as occupiers identify cheaper alternatives
                                                                                                                            disruption for Irish consumers and retailers        needs and in keeping with a modern, vibrant
                                                     to the city.
                                                                                                                            alike. This was particularly pronounced in the      European capital.
      West Suburbs                  €120-240         Office locations in the southwest suburbs of Dublin, largely concen-   F&B and leisure sectors which were hit im-
                                                     trated around Citywest and Tallaght in Dublin 24. These are further    mediately by restrictions on movement and
                                                     from the city but the LUAS Red Line provides connectivity to the       tourism. Cafés and restaurants have moved to
                                                                                                                                                                                DUBLIN CITY CENTRE RETAIL
                                                     city centre. The large amount of residential development activity as   take-away only, while non-essential business-       Dublin has a relatively small in-town retail of-
                                                     well as plans for a major extension at The Square Shopping Cen-        es were told to close. Supermarkets and phar-       fer primarily focused in the immediate environs
                                                     tre in Tallaght may encourage further development in the coming        macies are trading strongly and online grocery      of two pedestrianised streets; Grafton Street
                                                     years.                                                                 delivery services are also experiencing high de-    south of the River Liffey and Henry / Mary Street
                                                                                                                            mand. What has become very clear is that the        on its north side. Unlike many other European
                                                                                                                            omni-channel approach to retailing is more im-      capital cities, Dublin does not have a defined or
                                                                                                                            portant than ever with retailers who have em-       recognized ‘luxury’ retail Street with many up-
32   | INVESTING IN DUBLIN – 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                              GUIDE TO DUBLIN |   33

     market retail brands to date remaining content                                                 There are a number of complementary streets
     to trade as concessions within Brown Thomas.                                                   intersecting with or running parallel to Grafton
                                                                                                    Street. Dawson and Nassau Street in particular
                                                                                                    have become more important in the retail hi-
                                        ILAC
                                        Shopping Centre                                             erarchy given the launch of the new LUAS line
                       TREET                                        TREET
                                                                                                    and the substantial development activity taking
              MARY S                              HENRY S
                                                                                                    place in the area. St. Stephen’s Green Shopping
                     JERVIS
            Shopping Centre
                                          ARNOTTS
                                          Department Store
                                                                                                    Centre, which was developed in 1988, is the
                                                           Liffey
                                                                                                    only enclosed shopping mall on Grafton Street.
                                                   River
                                                                     DUBLIN                         The shopping centre was in joint ownership un-
                                                                   CITY CENTRE
                                                                                                    til 2019, when the entire was acquired by Davy
                                         Temple Bar District                                        for more than €175 million. With the centre
                                                                                                    now under sole ownership it is likely that plans
                                                                                  Trinity College
                                    BROWN THOMAS                                                    for its redevelopment will progress.
                                                                          TREET

                                   Department Store
                                                                     TON S
                                                                   GRAF

                                                                                                    Henry Street and Environs
                          ST STEPHEN’S GREEN
                              Shopping Centre                                                       Henry Street on the north side of the city cen-                                                                                  Grafton Place, Dublin 2
                                                                                                    tre perceived to be less upmarket than Grafton
                                                                          St Stephen’s
                                                                          Green Park                Street and more mass market. Mary Street, an       whose combined retail area represents 45% of         ing the extremely limited of supply of larger re-
                                                                                                    extension of Henry Street, was was consid-         the total. The Penneys store which doubles as        tail floor plates in the south city centre and also
                                                                                                    ered secondary to Henry Street until the Jer-      its global HQ is also believed to be their busiest   units capable of accommodating the extensive
     Grafton Street and Environs                                                                    vis Shopping Centre opened in 1996. Today the      outlet in Ireland.                                   demand from established or prospective F&B
     Located on the south side of the River Liffey,                                                 two streets are seen as one long pedestrianised                                                         operators seeking a city centre presence.
     Grafton Street is a 515 metre long pedestri-                                                   high street which act as the principal retail      Henry Street houses two enclosed shopping
     anised street and Ireland’s highest profile and                                                thoroughfare on the north side of the city. Hen-   schemes, Jervis Centre, which opened in 1996,        Construction and leasing is progressing on the
     most sought-after high street retail location.                                                 ry / Mary Street is approximately 450 metres       and the Ilac Centre which was originally devel-      redevelopment of Central Plaza (former Central
     The street is home to 90 retail units with a                                                   long, bounded by O’Connell Street to the east      oped in 1981 has recently been substantially         Bank HQ) on Dame Street which will include
     combined retail area of over 34,000 sq.m. The                                                  and Jervis Street to the west. There are 62 re-    refurbished. The long planned ‘Dublin Central’       some 3,270 sq.m of retail and 1,460 sq.m. of
     major occupiers on the street are the upmar-                                                   tail units on the street, less than the 90 units   development site is located immediately ad-          F&B space along with 8 floors of office space
     ket department store Brown Thomas and M&S                                                      on Grafton Street, however the units are larger    joining. If and when this scheme gets off the        on completion. This development will link the
     who trade directly opposite one another. The                                                   with ground floor areas (not including depart-     ground it will improve the attractiveness of         prime Grafton Street retail pitch with Temple
     iconic Bewley’s Café represents a key attraction                                               ment stores) averaging 187 sq.m compared           both the Ilac & the general Henry / Mary Street      Bar, Dublin’s most important leisure and tourist
     and focal point on the street. The tenant line                                                 with an average of 132 sq.m on Grafton Street.     retailing precinct.                                  destination, a location with many similarities to
     up has been reinvigorated with the recent ar-                                                                                                                                                          London’s Covent Garden.
     rival of a host of international retailers includ-                                             A notable feature of Henry / Mary Street is the
     ing The White Company, Rituals and The North                                                   number of department stores. There are five
                                                                                                                                                       Dublin City Centre Development Pipeline              Developers Meyer Bergman and BCP are also
     Face. Unlike many other European capital cities,                                               department stores on the street – Arnotts,         Significant regeneration is also taking place in     constructing a major retail and office devel-
     Dublin does not have a defined or recognised                                                   Dunnes Stores, Debenhams, Marks & Spencer          the form of major mixed-use developments ei-         opment on the corner of Dawson and Nassau
     ‘luxury’ retail pitch with many of the upmarket                                                and Penneys (Primark) – with a combined retail     ther under construction or in planning.              Street which will deliver a total of 7,728 sq.m
     retail brands to date remaining content to trade                                               area of almost 55,000 sq.m or 67% of the total                                                          of retail space. The landmark scheme, which
     as concessions within Brown Thomas.                                                            retail area on the street. This compares with      On the south side there are two developments         is expected to become a natural extension of
                                                                                                    just two department stores on Grafton Street       planned which should go some way to address-         the Grafton Street shopping precinct, will be
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