JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST - 2011-2021 Forecast Update Quarter ending March 2012
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Justice Sector JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST 2011-2021 Forecast Update Quarter ending March 2012
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST Forecast Update Table of contents About this update........................................................................................................................... 3 1. Overview........................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Headlines ................................................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Summary of drivers .................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 Prosecutions ............................................................................................................................ 6 1.4 Pre-sentence reports ............................................................................................................... 7 1.5 Monetary penalties .................................................................................................................. 7 1.6 Community Probation Service ................................................................................................. 8 1.7 Prison population ................................................................................................................... 10 1.8 Legal Aid ................................................................................................................................ 10 2. Focus: Remand ............................................................................................................. 11 3. Historical and international context ............................................................................ 13 4. Summary graphs ........................................................................................................... 15 5. Forecast drivers ............................................................................................................ 17 5.1 Numbers in the court system ................................................................................................. 18 5.2 Proportion remanded in custody ............................................................................................ 19 5.3 Time on custodial remand ..................................................................................................... 20 5.4 Proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction ................................................................. 21 5.5 Proportion of those convicted given different sentences ....................................................... 22 5.6 Length of sentence imposed ................................................................................................. 26 5.7 Proportion of sentence served ............................................................................................... 28 6. Prosecutions.................................................................................................................. 29 6.1 District Court summary cases ................................................................................................ 29 6.2 District Court committal cases ............................................................................................... 30 6.3 Crown Law case inflow .......................................................................................................... 31 6.4 Crown Law active caseload ................................................................................................... 32 7. Pre-sentence reports .................................................................................................... 33 7.1 Written Reports ...................................................................................................................... 33 7.2 Oral reports ............................................................................................................................ 34 8. Monetary penalties ........................................................................................................ 35 8.1 Amount imposed .................................................................................................................... 35 8.2 Amount received .................................................................................................................... 36 8.3 Remittals to Community Work sentences.............................................................................. 37 9. Community Probation Service (CPS) .......................................................................... 38 9.1 CPS sentences ...................................................................................................................... 38 9.2 Post-sentence management .................................................................................................. 45 9.3 Provision of Information ......................................................................................................... 50 10. Prison Population.......................................................................................................... 54 11. Legal Aid ........................................................................................................................ 56 11.1 Legal aid expenditure ............................................................................................................ 57 12. Explanatory notes ......................................................................................................... 58 Published by the Ministry of Justice in May 2012 © Crown Copyright ISSN 1178-1424 (online) Page 2
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
About this update
The Justice Sector Forecast represents a key instrument for strategic planning within the justice
sector. The forecast is prepared annually by Justice Sector Strategy within the Ministry of
Justice, in collaboration with representatives from across the sector, including the Ministry itself,
New Zealand Police, the Department of Corrections and the Crown Law Office.
This report compares actual outcomes against forecast outcomes for each of the following:
Numbers of summary and committal cases for 2011-2015.
Numbers of new cases and cases on hand requiring the participation of Crown Law
solicitors.
Number of pre-sentence reports provided to courts by probation officers for 2011-2015.
Amount of fines imposed and the amount of payments received for police-originated cases
in the criminal court.
Number of fine defaulters resentenced to Community Work.
Numbers of non-custodial sentences and orders for 2011-2015. The non-custodial
sentences and orders included are those overseen by Community Probation Services
(CPS). Forecasts are presented for both numbers starting these sentences and orders,
and for the numbers subject to them at any one time (the ‘muster’).
Numbers of reports from the CPS providing information to courts and to the Parole Board.
Remand and sentenced prison population for 2011-2021.
Accrued expenditure on Legal Aid for 2011-2016.
In addition, actual outcomes for each of the forecast’s key drivers are compared with the
assumptions agreed to by the justice sector agencies.
Each quarterly update includes a Focus section, looking in a little more detail at some aspect of
the forecast. The Focus section in this issue (section 2) explains why the remand population has
diverged from the forecast value. Readers are invited to submit suggestions for topics to be
covered, though we cannot guarantee to be able to cover everything.
This update is produced quarterly – that is, for the quarters ending 30 September, 31 December,
31 March, and 30 June each year. The explanatory notes in Section 12 give details of the
assumptions underpinning the forecast and of the conventions used in the graphs and tables in
this update.
Page 3JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1. Overview
1.1 Headlines
Particular points of interest include:
Most quantities connected with entry to the system are at or below forecast, suggesting
that overall trends continue to be downwards.
For the current quarter, most key drivers of the forecast are following or below expected
trends. The exceptions are proportion remanded and proportion of sentence served, which
are higher than expectations. Proportion remanded is also higher than expected for the
year to date, while court disposals and sentence imposed are below forecast over the
longer term.
The value of fines imposed remains ahead of expectations, against trends in the number
of cases entering the system, and the fall in fine usage. The average fine imposed has
increased about 50% over the last two years.
The swing in the use of CPS sentences continues, with a much higher than expected
usage of the sentences introduced in 2007, particularly Community Detention and Home
Detention. Nonetheless, the overall number of CPS sentences continues to trend
downwards, primarily due to a fall in the number of community work sentences, so this
reflects a change in sentence mix.
This change in the use of non-custodial sentences has resulted in a higher than expected
number on the Community Detention and Home Detention musters.
Committal cases in the District Court remain above forecast, as does Crown Law case
inflow. The use of committal may reflect Police policy regarding the laying of charges.
However, the overall total of District Court cases (which is driven by the numbers of
summary cases) is well below expectations, so committal cases represent a small quantity
above forecast within an overall situation that is below forecast.
Remand prisoner population is almost 5% above forecast, a drop from 13% above
forecast last quarter. It was noted last quarter that the discrepancy should work its way
through the system in a month or two, which has been the case. Clearly the higher-than-
expected proportion of defendants remanded feeds through to the higher remand
population. We have also examined the seasonal behaviour of remand usage more
closely, and will be introducing additional analyses to capture this seasonality from the
2012-22 forecast onwards.
Legal aid expenditure (excluding debt recovery) is below forecast for the quarter.
Page 4JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.2 Summary of drivers
Current quarter
Driver Expectation Actual Difference
Court disposals 38,833 35,508 -8.6%
Proportion remanded 7.2% 8.4% 16.7%
Average time on remand (days) 56.5 52.3 -7.4%
Proportion convicted 74.0% 74.6% 0.8%
Proportion of convictions resulting in a custodial sentence 8.2% 7.9% -3.3%
Proportion of convictions resulting in a CPS sentence 38.0% 39.6% 4.3%
Proportion of convictions resulting in a monetary sentence 39.0% 37.9% -2.9%
Proportion of convictions resulting in other sentences 14.8% 14.6% -1.5%
Av. sentence imposed (days): less or equal to 2 years 255 258 1.1%
Av. sentence imposed (days): greater than 2 years 1,545 1,410 -8.8%
Proportion of sentence served excluding remand 62.0% 66.6% 7.4%
Year to date
Driver Expectation Actual Difference
Court disposals 116,623 112,238 -3.8%
Proportion remanded 7.2% 7.8% 8.6%
Average time on remand (days) 56.5 55.9 -1.1%
Proportion convicted 74.0% 74.0% 0.0%
Proportion of convictions resulting in a custodial sentence 8.2% 8.2% -0.5%
Proportion of convictions resulting in a CPS sentence 38.0% 38.9% 2.4%
Proportion of convictions resulting in a monetary sentence 39.0% 38.4% -1.6%
Proportion of convictions resulting in other sentences 14.8% 14.5% -1.7%
Av. sentence imposed (days): less or equal to 2 years 259 252 -2.8%
Av. sentence imposed (days): greater than 2 years 1,552 1,507 -2.9%
Proportion of sentence served excluding remand 62.0% 64.3% 3.7%
Legend
= Actual exceeds forecast by more than 3%
= Actual is within +/-3% of forecast
= Actual is more than 3% below forecast
Page 5JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST Forecast Update 1.3 Prosecutions District Court Cases Current quarter Number Expectation Actual Difference District Court summary case disposals 43,787 39,404 -10.0% District Court committal case disposals 1,786 1,991 11.5% Year to date Number Expectation Actual Difference District Court summary case disposals 135,379 124,839 -7.8% District Court committal case disposals 5,761 6,331 9.9% Crown Law cases Current quarter Number Expectation Actual Difference Crown Law case inflows 1,202 1,510 25.6% Crown Law active caseload 3,291 3,523 7.0% Year to date Number Expectation Actual Difference Crown Law case inflows 4,327 4,869 12.5% Crown Law active caseload 3,291 3,523 7.0% * Crown Law’s active caseload is measured at the date of the end of the quarter, so ‘Current quarter’ and ‘Year to date’ are identical. Page 6
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
1.4 Pre-sentence reports
Current quarter
Number of reports Expectation Actual Difference
Written reports 5,854 4,769 -18.5%
Oral reports 5,402 5,512 2.0%
Total pre-sentence reports 11,255 10,281 -8.7%
Year to date
Number of reports Expectation Actual Difference
Written reports 20,236 18,441 -8.9%
Oral reports 19,251 18,756 -2.6%
Total pre-sentence reports 39,487 37,197 -5.8%
1.5 Monetary penalties
Current quarter
Value of Expectation Actual Difference
Fines imposed $12.1m $12.6m 4.2%
Fine payments received $10.6m $10.6m -0.4%
Number of
Fines remitted to community sentences 1,592 1,683 5.7%
Year to date
Value of Expectation Actual Difference
Fines imposed $37.7m $38.7m 2.6%
Fine payments received $33.6m $33.5m -0.3%
Number of
Fines remitted to community sentences 5,246 5,160 -1.6%
Page 7JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST Forecast Update 1.6 Community Probation Service Numbers of starts on community sentences Current quarter Number of ‘starts’ on Expectation Actual Difference Home Detention 594 738 24.2% Community Detention 1,023 1,331 30.1% Intensive Supervision 553 543 -1.8% Supervision 2,851 2,768 -2.9% Community Work 9,918 9,149 -7.8% Total starts on non-custodial sentences 14,939 14,529 -2.7% Year to date Number of ‘starts’ on Expectation Actual Difference Home Detention 2,235 2,460 10.1% Community Detention 3,707 4,314 16.4% Intensive Supervision 1,853 1,854 0.1% Supervision 8,704 8,512 -2.2% Community Work 31,007 28,760 -7.2% Total starts on non-custodial sentences 47,507 45,900 -3.4% Community sentence musters At end of current quarter Muster numbers Expectation Actual Difference Home Detention 1,213 1,480 22.0% Community Detention 1,184 1,686 42.4% Intensive Supervision 2,410 2,525 4.8% Supervision 8,009 7,804 -2.6% Community Work 22,598 20,551 -9.1% Total muster on non-custodial sentences 35,414 34,046 -3.9% Page 8
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Numbers of starts on post-sentence management
Current quarter
Number of ‘starts’ on Expectation Actual Difference
Parole 555 469 -15.5%
Release on Conditions 945 945 0.0%
Post-Detention Conditions 610 553 -9.3%
Total starts on non-custodial orders 2,111 1,967 -6.8%
Year to date
Number of ‘starts’ on Expectation Actual Difference
Parole 1,639 1,489 -9.2%
Release on Conditions 3,303 3,103 -6.1%
Post-Detention Conditions 1,933 1,765 -8.7%
Total starts on non-custodial orders 6,875 6,357 -7.5%
Musters on post-sentence management
At end of current quarter
Muster numbers Expectation Actual Difference
Parole 2,152 2,079 -3.4%
Release on conditions 3,696 3,448 -6.7%
Post-Detention Conditions 1,218 1,197 -1.7%
Extended Supervision 166 189 13.9%
Life Parole 253 256 1.2%
Total muster on non-custodial orders 7,485 7,169 -4.2%
Page 9JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST Forecast Update Provision of Information Current quarter Number of Expectation Actual Difference Court Servicing Hours 23,707 24,363 2.8% Pre-release enquiries 1,477 1,500 1.6% Home Leave reports 48 50 4.2% Parole Progress Reports 110 106 -3.6% Year to date Number of ‘starts’ on Expectation Actual Difference Court Servicing Hours 79,446 74,681 -6.0% Pre-release enquiries 4,998 4,780 -4.4% Home Leave reports 157 215 36.9% Parole Progress Reports 328 324 -1.2% 1.7 Prison population At end of current quarter Number of Expectation Actual Difference Remand prisoners 1,882 1,972 4.8% Sentenced prisoners 6,563 6,718 2.4% Total population 8,445 8,690 2.9% 1.8 Legal Aid Current quarter Expenditure Expectation Actual Difference Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery $40.0m $30.2m -24.5% Year to date Expenditure Expectation Actual Difference Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery $121.5m $104.1m -14.3% Page 10
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
2. Focus: Remand
Since the start of the year the actual and forecast prison populations have diverged. This first
became apparent in the remand population, so this quarter’s Focus article is looking at how we
forecast remand numbers. A lot of what is said also applies to the other muster populations,
such as sentenced prisoners.
The data
Although the divergence has only been observed since the start of the year, the trends causing it
may operate on a longer timescale. So we need to look at data over a longer historical period.
The following chart shows the difference between forecast and actual remand numbers for the
past three years.
Difference between actual and forecast remand
500
400
Difference in population
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12
Month
Dif f erence 2011 f orecast conf idence interval
The chart shows that the January 2012 discrepancy is the largest seen since 2009 (although still
within the confidence intervals of the forecast). The chart also clearly highlights a regular peak in
the difference every January. A regular pattern in discrepancies such as this indicates that an
equivalent pattern should also be found in the data and captured more accurately in the model.
Modelling the remand population
The remand population model is governed by two components:
The numbers given custodial remand (“numbers remanded”);
The length of time spent on remand (“remand time”).
These components are forecast separately, as they are mainly driven by different factors. The
numbers remanded are driven by the numbers entering the system, while the length of time
spent on remand is mostly a function of investigation and court processes.
Page 11JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST Forecast Update Variations in remand rate The 2011-2021 forecast uses an assumption about the trend in the proportion remanded in custody (“remand rate”) to calculate the numbers remanded. The reasoning behind the remand rate assumption considered the Policing Excellence programme of initiatives. We assumed that Policing Excellence would help lower the total number of cases in the system, but that it would have a lesser impact on the number of serious cases. Since serious cases are more likely to attract custodial remand, we assumed the number remanded in custody would not drop in the same proportion. Overall, our combined assumptions of a broadly similar number of remand cases and a lower total number of cases results in a higher remand rate. The remand rate assumed in the 2011-21 Justice Sector Forecast was 7.2%. This is at the higher end of recent values – the rate is volatile, but has normally been between 6% and 7% (see section 5.2 for more detail). The latest data shows that the rate since July 2011 has generally been higher still. The 10.1% recorded in January 2012 is the highest ever, and the average over the year to date is about 7.8%. So the assumption, although pitched high, was nonetheless still too low, and more people have been remanded than anticipated. The higher than expected remand rate, however, only explains about one-third of the observed discrepancy between actual and forecast numbers remanded. And since the modelling already captures the seasonal behaviour of numbers entering the system, it does not explain the January peaks in the chart. That pattern must lie in the remand time. Seasonal behaviour in remand time Remand time is also very volatile, although we can see some very seasonal behaviour – in particular, there is a regular drop in remand time in January each year (see section 5.3 for more detail). Closer analysis reveals other seasonal effects which are less immediately obvious, but which need to be incorporated in the model to better capture the behaviour of the prison population at that time of year. In particular, we have identified a more detailed seasonal variation in remand time that has a particular effect in January and succeeding months. Bringing this into the model, as will happen from 2012, will help us improve the ‘fit’ at this time of year, but will not affect longer-term trends. Conclusion Our analysis has enabled us to understand much of the discrepancy between forecast and remand populations in the current forecast. This explanation has led to another refinement in forecast methodology. The 2012-22 forecast will use a model that captures seasonality in remand time. But the forecast itself will still be subject to the accuracy of its assumptions, as we have seen with the proportion remanded. This quarterly monitor will continue to provide a regular assessment of the assumptions to better inform our picture of justice system behaviour. Page 12
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
3. Historical and international context
The following graph looks at the forecast in the context of a three decade trend in actual prisoner
numbers. Key legislative items are highlighted. The Criminal Justice Act of 1985 was followed
by Criminal Justice Amendment Acts in 1993, 1994, 1995, 1998, 1999 and 2001.
Prison population 1981 - 2021
10,000
9,000 Sentencing
and Parole
8,000 Acts 2002
Prison population
7,000
6,000
Criminal
Justice Act
5,000 1985 New non-custodial
sentences 2007
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Monthly data
Actual Forecast
Page 13JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
The following graph compares the incarceration rates per 100,000 people for a selection of
Commonwealth and European countries. A further comparison country – the USA – currently
has a rate of 743 people incarcerated per 100,000 people (2009 figures). Showing this value on
the above graph would change the scale and hide the detail between the other comparison
countries.1
Comparative incarceration rates per 100,000 people
250
200
Incarceration rate
150
100
50
0
Annual data
Australia England/Wales England/Wales projected
Scotland Scotland projected Canada
Sweden Netherlands NZ
NZ projected
1
Projections of the incarceration rate from 2010 onwards are shown for UK countries: these projections are
based on average values for projections of the relevant prison and total populations.
Page 14JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
4. Summary graphs
Total prisoner numbers
Total prison population
9,500
9,000
Persons incarcerated
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
Monthly data
Total Actual Total Forecast
Remand prisoner numbers
Remand prisoner numbers
2,100
1,900
Persons incarcerated
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
Monthly data
Remand Actual Remand Forecast
Page 15JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Sentenced prisoner numbers
Sentenced prisoner numbers
7,500
7,000
Persons incarcerated
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
Monthly data
Sentenced Actual Sentenced Forecast
Legal aid expenditure
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
$m
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Quarterly data
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery
Legal aid expenditure excluding debt recovery forecast
Page 16JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
5. Forecast drivers
Assumptions
Driver Assumption (base case) Comparison with
2010 Forecast
1: Numbers entering The number of charging events will fall Lower than 2010
the court system 5.8% in 2011/12, 0.5% in each of assumption
(number of charging 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2014/15, and 1%
events) per annum thereafter.
2: Prosecutions The number of summary prosecutions Lower than 2010
will fall in accordance with base case assumption
for first driver. The number of
indictable prosecutions lags other
measures: will stay at current level to
2012/13, then fall in accordance with
lagged base case.
3: Proportion of Proportion remanded in custody will Higher than 2010
people remanded in remain level at 7.2% throughout assumption
custody forecast period
4: Average time The average time spent on custodial Slightly lower than
spent on custodial remand will remain constant at current 2010 assumption
remand level
5: Proportion of The proportion of people convicted will Higher than 2010
people convicted rise to 75% in 2012-13 and stay at that assumption
level throughout the remainder of the
forecast period
6: Proportion of those Outcomes of deferment or conviction CPS and prison
convicted given and discharge: constant at 14.8% of sentences higher
custodial and total; monetary sentences: declining to proportions,
community 37.5%; CPS sentences rising to 39.5%; monetary lower
sentences prison sentences constant at 8.2%
7: Length of sentence The length of sentence imposed will Same
imposed remain constant.
8: Proportion of Proportion served (including remand) Higher than 2010
sentence served constant at about 72%; this translates assumption
to roughly 62% excluding remand
Page 17JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
5.1 Numbers in the court system
Analysis
The number of people in the courts system (as measured by the number of court disposals) is
below expectations by 4.6% for the year to date. At the end of December, it was 8.1% below
expectations. The overall trend is in line with expectations even though individual quarterly
values may range widely.
Court disposals
20,000
18,000
Numbers disposed
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
Monthly data
Court disposals Forecast
Data notes
Numbers in the court system measures the number of people passing through the criminal court
system by the number of ‘charging events’, defined as one person being dealt with for one or
more offences on a single day. This is a disposal measure, chosen because of the need to relate
court workload to numbers of people entering the courts to the numbers moving on to various
sentences. Cases split and merge during their progress through the courts system, so the
number of disposals is not the same as the number of prosecutions. However, the two behave
very similarly, so the quantity in the above graph is also a measure of the numbers entering.
Changes in numbers charged could reflect changes in any or all of offending patterns, activities
of enforcement agencies, and charging practices. Volatility in numbers charged reflects the range
of factors influencing it.
Page 18JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
5.2 Proportion remanded in custody
Analysis
The proportion remanded in custody is higher than the expected value, although the overall
reduction in numbers in the system means the absolute number of remand ‘starts’ is down. See
section 2 for a more detailed analysis of recent remand trends.
Proportion remanded in custody
12%
10%
Numbers remanded
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly data
Remand rate Forecast
Data notes
Proportion remanded in custody measures the number of new remand prisoners as a proportion
of court disposals in a given month. A new remand prisoner is one received at a prison
establishment (i.e. remand prisoners in police cells are excluded). The decision to remand in
custody instead of releasing on bail depends on the nature of offences and the characteristics of
individual defendants. Decisions on whether to release are affected by existing case law as well
as legislation. External events, such as high-profile crimes committed while on bail, may also
influence decisions on whether to grant or refuse bail.
Page 19JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
5.3 Time on custodial remand
Analysis
The time spent on remand during the quarter is below forecast by 7.3 days, although this reflects
a regular dip in the value every January. The time on remand measured over the year to date is
about a day below forecast which means that the overall trend in this volatile quantity is generally
in line with expectations.
Time on remand
70
65
60
55
Days
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Monthly data
Average time on remand Forecast
Data notes
Time on custodial remand is shown as the average length of time for all people who complete
their remand period in a given month. Other measures of time spent on remand are also
monitored.
Page 20JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
5.4 Proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction
Analysis
The proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction is very close to its forecast value.
Proportion Convicted
100%
90%
80%
Proportion (%)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Monthly data
Proportion convicted Forecast
Data notes
The proportion of prosecutions resulting in conviction is considered a minor driver, because it has
been relatively stable over time. This driver has a seasonal element of a peak in January. This
seems to be a reflection of the increased number of drink-drive offences that are cleared up at
that time of year. These offences have a higher rate of conviction because the use of
breathalysers at roadside stops means the cases are identified and effectively resolved at the
same moment.
Page 21JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
5.5 Proportion of those convicted given different sentences
Overview
The driver behind the numbers of different types of sentence imposed is the most complex.
In effect, it is multiple drivers, one for each of the four main types of sentence (Prison,
Community, Monetary and Other). All four drivers must be combined to give a result that fits
with the number of people being convicted, which has been fixed by the drivers earlier in the
system. We work with proportions, although ultimately we will revert to actual numbers of
people in order to calculate muster numbers and numbers of starts.
The process, then, is to make assumptions about trends in usage of three individual
sentence types. This constrains the fourth, and a key ‘sanity check’ is to examine that
constrained trend to see whether it is credible. If not, then the other three trends must be
revisited, new assumptions made, and the process repeated.
Sentence distribution
100%
90%
80%
70%
Proportion (%)
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Monthly data
Imprisonment CPS Monetary Other
This graph shows the actual proportions of the four types of sentence over time, along with
the projection for the forecast. It is clear that the introduction of new types of community
sentence in 2007 had a clear impact on CPS sentences, increasing the proportion of these
at the expense of both fines (particularly) and prison sentences. Another key pattern (and
one the forecast assumptions maintain) is that the total proportion of monetary and
community sentences is quite stable, between about 75% and 80%.
The next four graphs look at each sentence type in turn. We attempt to count individuals as
much as possible, so it is the most serious sentence someone receives on a given day that
determines the category they fall into in this section. For example, someone receiving, on
the same day, sentences of community work, supervision and a fine would appear here
once, under ‘CPS sentence’.
Page 22JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Analysis
The proportion of offenders receiving sentences classified as Other continues to be close to
expectations.
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of an other
sentence
18%
16%
Proportion (%)
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly data
%age other Forecast
The proportion of offenders receiving a monetary sentence as their most severe sanction is
slightly below expectations.
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of a monetary
70%
sentence
60%
Proportion (%)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Monthly data
%age fined Forecast
Page 23JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
The proportion of offenders receiving a CPS sentence as their most severe sanction is slightly
above expectations.
Proportion sentenced to the most severe sentence of a CPS sentence
45%
40%
Proportion (%)
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Monthly data
%age CPS Forecast
The proportion of offenders receiving a prison sentence is volatile but is overall in line with
expectations.
Proportion sentenced to a maximum sentence of a prison sentence
14%
12%
Proportion (%)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly data
%age jailed Forecast
Page 24JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Data notes
Proportion of those convicted measures those offenders who are given different types of
sentence in the categories: custodial, CPS, monetary and other (in decreasing order of
seriousness). ‘Other’ sentences are principally ‘conviction and discharge’ – it is possible that
some of these offenders may be required to pay reparation, but that does not count as a
monetary penalty for these graphs. Offenders may be given more than one type of sentence if
they face more than one charge – in these graphs, only the most serious charge counts.
Offenders may also be given more than one sentence in a given category at a single sentencing
event.
Page 25JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
5.6 Length of sentence imposed
Analysis
Over the quarter, shorter imposed sentences (less than 2 years) are slightly above expectations,
longer sentences are below expectations. Over the year both groups are below expectations by
about 3%.
Year to date
Category Expectation Actual Difference
Less than or equal to three months 53 53 0.0%
Greater than three months to six months 144 150 4.4%
Greater than six months to one year 279 280 0.5%
Greater than one year to two years 542 557 2.7%
Greater than two years to three years 908 890 -2.1%
Greater than three years to five years 1,410 1,387 -1.6%
Greater than five years 2,943 3,204 8.9%
Sentence lengths are expressed as an average number of days within a range of categories.
Imposed sentence length: actual vs forecast
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
Difference (%)
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
Sentence length category
Page 26JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Data notes
Length of sentence imposed has been broken down into a number of categories looking at
sentences of different length. An average value for each category is forecast, and the actual
value over the year to date for that category is compared to it. The percentage difference from
the forecast value for each category is shown in the bar chart. It is not possible to show the
change in these quantities with time. The summary table at the start of the report will contain the
value for the latest quarter, while the charts here will show the values for the year to date.
Page 27JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
5.7 Proportion of sentence served
Analysis
The total proportion of sentence served had been increasing for several years but since 2008 it
had reached a plateau, which formed the basis for the assumption. It has remained above the
forecast level for some months now, which may suggest a new trend.
Proportion of sentence served excluding time on remand
75%
70%
65%
60%
Proportion (%)
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
Monthly data
Proportion served Forecast
Data notes
Proportion of sentence served measures the average proportion of the sentence imposed that is
served for sentences longer than two years (sentences of two years or less are subject to
automatic release at the 50% point). The driver used to develop the forecast tracks the average
proportion served (excluding remand) for different sentence lengths separately. In this update the
driver is represented as an aggregate over all sentence lengths greater than two years. The
proportion served including remand has stayed around 10 percentage points higher than that
excluding remand over a long period of time. For technical reasons associated with producing a
separate remand population, the forecast model decouples the remand and sentenced periods,
and thus is based on the proportion excluding remand.
Page 28JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
6. Prosecutions
6.1 District Court summary cases
Analysis
District Court summary cases were 10% below the forecast level for the quarter.
Number of District Court summary cases
25,000
20,000
Number of cases
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Monthly data
DC Summary DC Summary forecast
Data notes
District Court summary and committal cases are a measure of the seriousness of the workload
passing through the court. Summary cases are high-volume and comparatively less serious.
Committal cases are generally more serious, and will be heard by a jury. This distinction also
identifies cases that are more likely to involve Crown Law. The classification of a case may
change as it proceeds through the court; it may be laid summarily, but the defendant may elect
committal for jury trial. The classification used here is based on the way the case is finally heard,
not how it is originally laid.
Page 29JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
6.2 District Court committal cases
Analysis
District Court committal cases remain above the forecast level, but less so than last quarter. This
would seem to confirm that numbers are not returning to previously seen levels, but may still be
settling at a slightly higher-than-anticipated level.
Number of District Court committal cases
1,400
1,200
Number of cases
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
DC Committal DC Committal forecast
Data notes
Refer to section 6.1
Page 30JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
6.3 Crown Law case inflow
Analysis
Crown Law case inflow remains above the forecast level.
Crown Law case inflow
900
800
Number of cases
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Crown Law case inflow Crown Law case inflow forecast
Data notes
Crown Law inflow and caseload measure the number of more serious cases that are handled by
Crown Law solicitors. These include, for example, all indictable-only cases and appeals. The
different types of case handled by Crown Law take different lengths of time, and an inflow
measure alone does not give a full indication of the workload faced. The active caseload
measure is obtained by combining projections of both inflow and time taken for the different types
of case.
Page 31JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
6.4 Crown Law active caseload
Analysis
Crown Law active caseload is above the forecast level, reflecting the higher than expected
inflow.
Crown Law active caseload
4,000
3,500
Number of cases
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Crown Law active caseload Crown Law active caseload forecast
Data notes
Refer to section 6.3
Page 32JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
7. Pre-sentence reports
7.1 Written Reports
Analysis
Written reports remain below forecast, reflecting the overall fall in numbers in the system. The
total number of reports – oral and written – is below expectations.
Number of written pre-sentence reports
3,500
3,000
Number of reports
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Written reports Written reports forecast
Data notes
Number of written pre-sentence reports is a count of the number of such reports completed in the
given month.
Number of oral pre-sentence reports is a count of the number of such reports completed in the
given month. An oral report occurs when a judge requests information to be
provided immediately.
Page 33JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
7.2 Oral reports
Analysis
Oral reports for the quarter were slightly above forecast, but the figures for the year to date are
below forecast. The total number of reports – oral and written – is below expectations.
Number of oral pre-sentence reports
3,000
2,500
Number of reports
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Oral reports Oral reports forecast
Data notes
Refer to section 7.1
Page 34JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
8. Monetary penalties
The forecast quantities are monetary penalties imposed and the amount of money collected from
those penalties.
The forecast currently concentrates on the criminal courts. The monetary penalties included are
those fines associated with police-originated prosecutions in the criminal courts.
8.1 Amount imposed
Analysis
The amount of fines imposed is 4.2% above the forecast level for the quarter, 2.6% for the year
to date. This is unexpected given the drop in cases passing through the system (section 5.1),
and the drop in the use of fines as a sentence (section 5.5). The total amount imposed is being
kept higher by a 50% increase in the average amount of fine imposed over the last two years. It
is possible that this is a consequence of the Policing Excellence initiative finding alternative
sentences for offences that would otherwise attract low-level fines. The absence of low-value
fines would push the average value of those still imposed upwards. Further work is under way to
examine this possibility.
Imposed monetary penalties
7
6
5
$m
4
3
2
1
0
Monthly data
Impositions Impositions Forecast
Data notes
Monetary penalties: amount imposed and amount received measure the total dollar value of
monetary penalties imposed and collected during the quarter. The totals are made up of: fines,
court costs, enforcement costs, confiscation costs, offender levy and payments made to a third
party. The penalties involved are those associated with police-originated cases in the criminal
court, as this is the part of Collections business involved in the remainder of the forecast.
Page 35JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Monetary penalties are frequently paid off by instalments so the receipts in a given month will not
precisely relate to the amounts imposed in that month. The database supplying these data is a
live one, and one quarter’s values may change in subsequent quarters as the imposition and
collection processes are carried through to completion. The latest data should therefore always
be treated as provisional.
8.2 Amount received
Analysis
The amount of fine receipts is very close to the forecast level.
Receipts of monetary penalties
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
$m
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Monthly data
Receipts Receipts Forecast
Data notes
Refer to section 8.1
Page 36JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
8.3 Remittals to Community Work sentences
Analysis
The number of monetary penalties remitted to Community Work sentences is 6% above the
forecast value for the quarter, although still 1.6% below forecast for the year. The high quarterly
figure appears due to a couple of unexpectedly high monthly values. Further monitoring will be
needed to see whether this constitutes a new trend.
Remittals to community work sentences
1,000
900
800
Number of remittals
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Remittals Remittals Forecast
Data notes
Remittals to Community Work sentences measures an additional source of workload for the
Department of Corrections that does not appear via standard sentencing data.
People who do not pay fines may have them remitted to other sentences. We are interested here
in the sentence of Community Work. Offenders whose fines are remitted to more serious
sentence types will be receiving a separate sentence of that type for subsequent offending and
will thus be counted in the forecast under that sentence. (The sentence for fine default will be an
additional amount to be served consecutively.)
Fine defaulters remitted to Community Work sentences, however, generally have not re-offended
and are thus not picked up in the court disposals counted in section 5.1. Numbers of these
remittals are thus also forecast, as they produce a substantial number of people with sentences
to be managed by the Department of Corrections.
Page 37JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
9. Community Probation Service (CPS)
Community Probation Service (CPS) quantities are split into three categories:
CPS Sentences
Post-sentence management
Provision of Information
9.1 CPS sentences
Projections are made for starts and musters in the following Community Probation Service
supervised sentences:
Home Detention
Community Detention
Intensive Supervision
Supervision
Community Work
The data for a number of these outcomes are problematic for a variety of reasons, including high
volatility, small sample size, and limited historical data. These reasons can make projection
difficult.
The discussion in section 5.5 looked at the proportion of individual convicted offenders receiving
CPS sentences. This analysis is essential in maintaining an overview of the numbers of people
passing through the system. Once the actual operation of sentences is being forecast, the
number of starts on each sentence becomes more important. That is because individual
offenders are frequently given more than one CPS sentence on a single occasion. This may be
because they are facing more than one charge and different sentences are given for each
convicted charge. But single charges can also attract multiple sentences, most commonly the
pairing of Community Work and Supervision. Each start of a sentence represents a unit of work
for the CPS, which the forecast needs to reflect.
Thus the forecast projects the number of starts on CPS sentences. From 2011, it also projects a
‘muster’ for each sentence (and for the post-sentence management orders).
Page 38JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Home Detention Analysis
The last quarter has seen both the number of starts and the muster on Home Detention move
ahead of their forecast values.
Home Detention starts
450
400
Number of starts
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Home Detention Home Detention Forecast
Home Detention muster
2,000
1,800
1,600
Number on muster
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
Home Detention Home Detention Forecast
Page 39JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Community Detention Analysis
The number of starts and the muster on Community Detention remain above their forecast
values. The increased use of Community Detention sentences has pushed the muster to about
40% above expectations from a value of 25% last quarter. The number of Community Detention
starts is also above the number at the same time last year.
Community Detention starts
600
500
Number of starts
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Community Detention Forecast
Community Detention muster
2,500
2,000
Number on muster
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Community Detention Community Detention Forecast
Page 40JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Intensive Supervision Analysis
The number of starts on Intensive Supervision is close to its forecast value. The muster number
is a little above the forecast value.
Intensive Supervision starts
300
250
Number of starts
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Intensive Supervision Intensive Supervision Forecast
Intensive Supervision muster
3,000
2,500
Number on muster
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Intensive Supervision Intensive Supervision Forecast
Page 41JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Supervision Analysis
Both the number of starts and the muster on Supervision are close to their forecast values. The
number of starts on Supervision, while slightly below expectations, is nonetheless about the
number at the same time last year, reflecting an anticipated increase in its usage.
Supervision starts
1,400
1,200
Number of starts
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
Supervision starts Supervision Forecast
Supervision muster
10,000
9,000
8,000
Number on muster
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Monthly data
Supervision Supervision Forecast
Page 42JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Community Work Analysis
Both the number of starts and the muster on Community Work sentences are below their
forecast values. As Community Work is by some way the largest single component of
community sentences, the overall number of starts on non-custodial sentences is also down.
Community Work starts
4,500
4,000
Number of starts
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Community Work Community Work Forecast
Community Work muster
30,000
25,000
Number on muster
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Monthly data
Community Work Community Work Forecast
Page 43JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST Forecast Update Data notes Starts and muster values each comprise a count of new sentences of the relevant type commenced in the given month, and a count of the number of offenders actively serving such a sentence at the end of the month respectively. Home Detention, Community Detention and Intensive Supervision sentences were introduced in October 2007, which means there are limited historical data, and that the future projections and seasonality components are not as reliable as those for Community Work and Supervision. Page 44
JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
9.2 Post-sentence management
Projections are made for starts and musters in the following Community Probation Service
supervised post-sentence orders:
Parole
Release on Conditions
Post-detention Conditions
Extended Supervision
Life Parole
Parole Analysis
The number of starts on Parole has continued below its forecast value, and this is now beginning
to feed through to the muster number, which is also below its forecast value.
Parole starts
300
250
Number of starts
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Parole Parole Forecast
Page 45JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Parole muster
2,500
2,000
Number on muster
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Parole Parole Forecast
Release on Conditions Analysis
The number of new Release on Conditions orders in the quarter was exactly the forecast value,
although the year-to-date figure remains below expectations, as does the muster.
Release on Conditions starts
600
500
Number of starts
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Release on Conditions Release on Conditions Forecast
Page 46JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Release on Conditions muster
4,500
4,000
Number on muster
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Monthly data
Release on Conditions Release on Conditions Forecast
Post-Detention Conditions Analysis
The number of new Post-detention Conditions orders remains below the forecast value, as does
the muster number.
Post-detention Conditions starts
350
300
Number of starts
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Post Detention Conditions Post Detention Conditions Forecast
Page 47JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Post-detention Conditions muster
1,600
1,400
Number on muster
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Monthly data
Post Detention Conditions Post Detention Conditions Forecast
Life Parole and Extended Supervision Analysis
Releases on Life Parole are ahead of expectations, and Extended Supervision releases are
close to their projected value. Both musters are close to expectations (allowing for the data
review mentioned below). There are very small numbers involved in these categories and the
difference in the Life Parole starts is essentially the difference between an average of three a
month and an average of four a month.
The upward step in the Extended Supervision muster is as a result of a data review that revealed
a small amount of under-recording during 2011. The recorded number is likely to remain at the
new level.
Expected annual 12 months
Order
numbers to date
Life Parole 37 49
Extended Supervision 27 25
Page 48JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Life Parole and Extended Supervision musters
350
300
Number on muster
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monthly data
Life Parole Life Parole Forecast Extended Supervision Extended Supervision Forecast
Data notes
Starts and muster values each comprise a count of new orders of the relevant type commenced
in the given month, and a count of the number of offenders actively serving such an order at the
end of the month respectively.
Release on Conditions: The vast majority of cases are for sentences of less than two years, with
conditions being set by the judge. These are the cases counted here. A small number of cases
subject to a process called ‘release on conditions’ are for longer sentences. These are cases
where the Parole Board has no discretion to release an offender. The offender must be released
by law, and the Board’s only role is to set the conditions of the offender’s release. These cases
are treated as parole cases by CPS, and are counted in Parole at the start of this section.
Life Parole and Extended Supervision: these two outcomes occur only a few times a month, in
quantities too small to be used in time series analysis. Aggregating monthly values to a yearly
total provides a larger value, but drastically shortens the time series. The projection therefore
consists of the average value of recent years. Consequently starts on these orders are likely to
exhibit a large amount of fluctuation. Because many of these released prisoners spend a
considerable time on these orders, the muster numbers are more easily forecast, although the
available data for the Life Parole muster is the shortest, and therefore most limiting, used in the
forecast. Offenders were first put on Extended Supervision orders in 2007, with orders being for
up to ten years. Very few offenders have completed these orders to date. The upward step in
the Extended Supervision muster is as a result of a data review that revealed a small amount of
under-recording during 2011.
Page 49JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
9.3 Provision of Information
Projections are made for numbers or hours for the following Community Probation Service
information provision processes:
Court Servicing Hours
Pre-release Enquiries
Home Leave Reports
Parole Condition Progress Reports
Court Servicing Hours Analysis
Court Servicing Hours were slightly above expectations in the latest quarter, but remain below
their forecast value over the year to date.
Court Servicing Hours
12,000
10,000
Hours
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Monthly data
Court Servicing Hours Court Servicing Hours Forecast
Data notes
Court Servicing Hours are a measure of the time probation officers spend at court. Important
court functions include appearing as a prosecutor for CPS breaches and applications, providing
information to the judges/court users, and attendance at any court where Home Detention
sentencing is taking place to receive instructions in regard to the immediate activation of the
sentence.
Page 50JUSTICE SECTOR FORECAST
Forecast Update
Pre-release Enquiries Analysis
Pre-release Enquiries were slightly above expectations in the latest quarter, but remain below
their forecast value over the year to date.
Pre-release enquiries
700
600
Number of reports
500
400
300
200
100
0
Monthly data
Pre-release enquiries Pre-release enquiries Forecast
Data notes
Pre-release Enquiries are reports to prepare for an offender’s appearance before the Parole
Board.
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