LEEDS CITY REGION Labour Market Analysis 2013/14

 
LEEDS CITY REGION Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
LEEDS CITY REGION
Labour Market Analysis

                         2013/14
LEEDS CITY REGION Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
By Felix Kumi-Ampofo and Tanya
Spakovica, Regional Economic
Intelligence Unit, Leeds City Council
Commissioned by the Leeds City
Region Local Enterprise Partnership
Contents

1   Foreword                                                                                               3

2   Executive Summary                                                                                      4

3   Introduction and Context                                                                               7

4   The Supply of Skills into the Leeds City Region Labour Market                                          17

5   The Economy and Implications for Skills Demand                                                         39

6   Mismatch and Alignment                                                                                 53

    The support and contribution of Sue Cooke and Nigel Guy (Leeds City Region), Louise Tearle and Michele
    Sutton (Leeds City Region Skills Network) and Joanne Beaumont and Daniel Penn (University of
    Bradford) and Ian McGregor Brown at HEART is especially acknowledged.

                                                      LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14        2
Foreword
    1

                   As a LEP Board member and the             Whilst this particular report does not set out to provide the
                   incoming chair of the LEP’s               answers to these questions, it does contribute some
                   Employment & Skills Panel, I am           meaningful intelligence to ensure that our choices and plans
                   delighted to introduce this report,       are well informed.
                   the LEP’s third annual analysis of
                   key labour market trends.                 As the report sets out, the economic outlook remains difficult
                                                             and opportunities for addressing unemployment, especially
                   Developed in partnership with the         for young people, are limited. We must ensure that the public
                   Leeds City Region Skills Network, led     and private investment in vocational education is as focused
                   by Michele Sutton, it is intended to be   as possible on teaching high quality, relevant and transferable
                   used by all the colleges, universities,   skills which will equip our future workforce to compete
                   employment & skills providers who         successfully with the best in the world. Our City Region has
                   plan their skills offer in response to    distinctive strengths in the following sectors and we should
                   both individual and employer demand.      continue to encourage talent to grow and prosper,
                                                             particularly in these fields of comparative opportunity:
                   This Labour Market Analysis is a key
                   ingredient in our Partnership             •   Finance and business services
                   Agreement, as it focuses the debate       •   Manufacturing and engineering
                   on the changing nature of the labour
                                                             •   Digital and creative industries
                   market and prompts questions we all
                   need to ask ourselves, such as            •   Bio-science and medical technology
                                                             •   Low Carbon and Environmental Industries
                   •   As a student, what course of study
                                                             •   Transport and logistics
                       should I follow and what are my
                       chances of getting a job in a         On behalf of the LEP, its Employment & Skills Panel and the
                       related field?                        Skills Network, we invite you to read this year’s rich body of
                                                             analysis and to reflect on its implications for your own
                   •   As an education/training provider,
                                                             contribution to our region’s future prosperity.
                       how should my curriculum
                       respond better to meet the
                       changing nature of jobs in
                       the economy?

                   •   As a business, how should I
                       communicate my skills needs
                       better to providers of vocational
                       education and how can I get more
                       involved in offering work
                       experience to young people?                  Stephanie Burras                   Michele Sutton OBE
                                                                  CEO Ahead Partnership                 Principal and CEO,
                   •   As a teacher, how can I welcome           Chair of LEP Employment                 Bradford College
                                                                       & Skills Panel              Chair of the LCR Skills Network
                       more business people into the
                       classroom to ensure my students
                       are well prepared for the world
                       of work?

3   LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
Executive Summary
2

    This report presents the state of the      The City Region remains a key national centre for textiles
    Leeds City Region (LCR) labour             and clothing – employment levels are 4.5 times and 2.3
    market within the context of its           times the national average respectively in these sectors
    economy. It shows the key supply
    and demand side challenges, the            The Supply of Skills
    strengths and weaknesses and
                                               The latest population projections from ONS suggest that the
    prospects for growth.
                                               0 to 10 population in LCR will grow by 13% over the next
                                               decade, below the England average (16%). Leeds and
    Context
                                               Bradford districts lead the way in absolute growth terms,
    Over the last ten years, Gross Value       unsurprisingly. Selby district is projected to experience the
    Added (GVA) in LCR grew by 4%              highest percentage growth in this age cohort (22%).
    similar to the growth of workforce         Harrogate and Craven however, are expected to experience
    jobs in the economy. This is in contrast   the least change; 5% and 6% respectively.
    to the 14% GVA growth and 5%
                                               An analysis of the February 2013 claimant count data shows
    workforce jobs growth enjoyed by the
                                               very little change over the last year, with the LCR Job Seekers
    UK economy over the last decade.
                                               Allowance claimant rate at 4.8% compared to 4.9% in the
    However, over the last 12 months,
                                               UK. There were almost 91,200 claimants in the city region at
    economic activity rates have picked
                                               the end of February 2013.
    up in LCR and outperformed the
    national average.
                                               GCSE and Higher Education
    According to the Business Register
                                               LCR districts have continued to improve GCSE attainment
    Employment Survey, published by the
                                               levels over the last decade. However, there still remains a
    Office for National Statistics, total
                                               substantial gap between the best and worst performers. In
    employment in LCR in 2011 stood at
                                               2005/6, only 31% of students in Barnsley achieved 5+ A*-C
    1.3m. Health, manufacturing and
                                               grades (including maths and English), compared to 54% in
    retail remain the largest employers in
                                               North Yorkshire – a gap of 23 percentage points. By 2011/12,
    the city region. Transport and storage
                                               this gap had only shrunk to 20 percentage points. Of the
    and health created the most new jobs
                                               eight Local Education Authorities that make up LCR, four
    in the period between 2008 and 2011.
                                               remain below the national average (although Wakefield is
    Construction and accommodation and
                                               now only very marginally below) and three remain below the
    food services, lost the most jobs in
                                               LCR average, in terms of GCSE achievement. These are
    that same period.
                                               Barnsley, Bradford and Leeds. Given that the Leeds and
    The BRES data further suggests that        Bradford districts have 45% of the youth population (0-19)
    LCR economy has strong specialisms in      in LCR, their continued under-achievement should remain a
    key sectors like manufacturing, finance,   concern, despite the continued improvement.
    transport and storage and wholesale.
                                               The proportion of the population with NVQ4+ qualifications (or
    LCR’s manufacturing employment in
                                               equivalent) has increased from 33% in 2008 to 39% in 2012 in
    2011 (138,000) was higher than any
                                               Britain. In LCR, the highly qualified population has increased
    other LEP area in England.
                                               from 30% to 35% (representing 465,300 people) since 2007.

                                                      LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14     4
2

                   This improvement, whilst                    Adult intermediate apprenticeships increased by 145% over
                   commendable, still lags the                 the period whilst adult advanced apprenticeships rose by
                   national average.                           85%. Increases in youth apprenticeships were much more
                                                               muted in comparison.
                   FE
                                                               HE
                   In total, there were 190,158 starts in
                   2010/11 in the under 19 category in         Business Administration and subjects allied to Medicine are
                   FE. Healthcare and Creative and             the most popular courses in Higher Education (HE) in LCR
                   Cultural studies attracted the most         according to data from the Higher Education Statistics
                   starts. Hair and Beauty also continues      Authority. These accounted for 13% each of total
                   to be popular. It is an accessible          enrolments in 2011/12. Social Studies and Languages also
                   course for some students who might          proved popular.
                   otherwise not engage with further
                                                               The latest data from the annual Destination of Leavers in
                   education. However, the LCR
                                                               Higher Education (DLHE) survey shows that 62% of the
                   economy will require a greater
                                                               2010/11 graduate cohort from LCR Higher Education
                   proportion of highly skilled labour in
                                                               Institutions (HEI) had secured graduate level employment
                   the workforce to improve its
                                                               within 6 months of their summer graduations, compared to
                   competiveness. This though should
                                                               61% the previous year.
                   not be at the expense of entry level
                   opportunities.
                                                               NEETs
                   Amongst the 19+ age group there were
                                                               LCR has a lower NEET rate than Greater Manchester and the
                   95,000 starts in FE. Healthcare (13%),
                                                               Yorkshire average. As part of the City Deal with central
                   Business IT and Telecoms (13%) were
                                                               government, the city region has set itself an ambition to
                   the most popular in terms of starts,
                                                               drive down the NEETs rate over the medium term.
                   followed by Adult Social Care (11%).
                                                               In absolute terms the number of NEETs in LCR was
                   Between 2009/10 and 2010/11, overall
                                                               estimated to be 5,809 in December 2012. A year before
                   apprenticeship starts increased by
                                                               then, the estimate was 7,333.
                   65% due almost exclusively to the
                   sharp rise (119%) in adult
                                                               The Demand for Skills
                   apprenticeships over that period driven
                   by government policy. It is worth           In the medium term, the LCR economy is forecast to create
                   noting though that overall                  almost 45,000 new FTE jobs, according to the Regional
                   participation in FE and training actually   Econometric Model (REM). Administrative and support
                   fell during this period. The impact of      services, land transport, storage and post and professional
                   this policy has been to “shift” adult       services are forecast to create the most jobs, followed by
                   training from Train to Gain to              retail, accommodation and food services and finance. These
                   Apprenticeships as opposed to actually      new jobs constitute an expansionary demand for labour,
                   increasing overall participation.           arising due to these sectors growing bigger within the LCR
                                                               economy and requiring further human resources.

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    All occupations are forecast to require   Alignment and Mismatch
    significant replacement of labour over
    the next decade due to retirements. In    Overall, six of the nine key sectors assessed are
    the period from 2010 to 2020, a total     over-represented on the supply side to varying extents.
    of 567,000 job opportunities are          These are hospitality, health and social care, digital and
    expected to occur in LCR due to           creative, ICT, low carbon and environmental industries and
    replacement demand. When                  construction. This suggests that proportionally, there are
    compared to the 50,000 expansion          more people studying courses related to these sectors than
    demand opportunities, the scale           the sector’s share of the workforce. The other three sectors
    becomes apparent (UKCES, Working          are over-represented on the demand side. These are
    Futures, 2012)                            manufacturing, finance and business services and logistics
                                              and transport.
    The occupational profile in LCR is
    forecast to undergo significant change    Despite the limitations of the available data and the approach
    over the next decade. This will be        employed, this will hopefully provide students, careers
    characterised largely by continued        advisers and policy makers with some useful information
    growth in high human contact              about these sectors and the opportunities available.
    occupations like Sales and Customer
    Service and Caring as well as strong
    growth in high skilled occupations like
    Managers and Directors, Professional
    Occupations and Associate
    professional. Lower skilled occupations
    like Elementary and Process Plant
    operatives are forecast to shrink as a
    share of the labour force.

                                                     LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14      6
Introduction and Context
         3

                            This report presents the state of the Leeds City Region (LCR) labour market within the context of
                            its economy. It shows the key supply and demand side challenges, the strengths and weaknesses
                            and prospects for growth. Furthermore, the report discusses the relative performance of the
                            labour market compared with LCR’s peers and ends with an illustration of the extent of possible
                            alignment and mismatches in the supply of and demand for skills.

                            The Leeds City Region economy is undergoing significant change, in line with the rest of the UK, as it emerges
                            from the current economic malaise. UK central government remains faithful to its key economic plan to
                            reduce the deficit, reduce public sector expenditure and boost the private sector. The Government’s skills
                            strategy (Skills for Sustainable Growth and Investing in Skills for Sustainable Growth) published in November
                            2010 was founded on the “Coalition’s principles of fairness, responsibility and freedom”. The strategy focuses
                            heavily on promoting apprenticeships and some of the key policy announcements included:

                            •   Expanding the numbers of adult (19+) apprenticeships available by up to 75,000 by 2014-15 and
                                increasing funding for adult Apprenticeships by up to £250m over the Spending Review period
                            •   Reshaping apprenticeships so Level 3 becomes the level to which learners and employers should aspire.
                            •   Ensuring there are clear routes from apprenticeships to higher level training including, but not
                                exclusively, Level 4 Apprenticeships.

                            The Leeds City Region Economic Picture - Current
                            Over the last ten years, Gross Value Added (GVA) in LCR grew by 4% similar to the number of workforce
                            jobs in the economy as figure 1 below shows. This is in contrast to the 14% GVA growth and 5%
                            workforce jobs growth enjoyed by the UK economy over the last decade. LCR underperformed when
                            compared to the national average and the implications are more pronounced when population data is
                            analysed over the same period. The city region’s population grew strongly (9%) compared to the UK (7%)
                            over the last decade. Working-age population however grew at twice the national average (12%: UK – 6%).
                            Such population growth, fuelled by strong growth in net in-migration, puts the need for a job creation
                            boost into sharp focus and underlines the scale of the challenge facing policy makers in the City Region.

                            Fig 1: Summary Economic View of LCR
                                                                              2002             2012         % Change    % Change
                                                                                                            2002-2012 2002-2012 UK

                                Total Output (GVA) (£bn)                       49.2            51.3             4%             14%

                                Total Workforce jobs (Millions)                 1.4             1.5             4%              5%

                                Working age population (Millions)               1.7             1.9             12%             6%

                                Total population (Millions)                     2.8             3.0             9%              7%

                                Household disposable Income (£bn CVM)          36.1            38.2             6%             10%

                                Household spending (£bn)                       33.2            37.0             12%            10%
Source: Experian 2012

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Economic activity rates have been falling since the 2008 recession but over the last 12 months, there has been a marked
improvement in LCR compared to the UK average as shown below.

Fig 2: A snapshot of Economic Activity in the LCR, 2011-2012
     Variable                                          2011                Oct 2011-Sep 2012              12 Month Change

                                                Number           %          Number            %              LCR              UK

    Economic Activity

    Economic activity rate - aged 16-64         1,463,300       74.8       1,484,900         75.8            1.0              0.6

    Employment rate - aged 16-64                1,320,800       67.5       1,352,800          69              2               0.5

    Economic Inactivity

    % who are economically inactive -            492,100        25.2        474,900          24.2            -1.0             -0.6
    aged 16-64

    % of economically inactive who               101,500        20.6        106,100          22.3            1.7              0.5
    want a job

    % of economically inactive who              390,600         79.4        368,900          77.7            -1.7             -0.5
    do not want a job

    Unemployment

    Unemployment rate - aged 16-64               142,500         9.7        132,100           8.9            -0.8             0.1

Source: NOMIS 2013

The Leeds City Region Economic
Picture - Forecast
The LCR economy is forecast to grow by 23% in GVA terms over the next decade as depicted in figure 3 below. Full Time
Employment is also forecast to grow by 10% over the same period. Household spending and disposable income are also
forecast to grow strongly. These forecasts are however subject to change depending on how quickly the UK economy recovers
and whether LCR is able to take advantage of the opportunities that will arise.

                                                                         LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14          8
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                   Fig 3: Summary Economic View of LCR
                                                                             2002         % Change             % Change
                                                                                          2002-2012          2002-2012 UK

                         Total Output (GVA) (£bn)                            62.9             23%                  24%

                         Total Workforce Jobs (Millions)                      1.6              7%                   7%

                         Working age population (Millions)                    2.1              8%                  10%

                         Total population (Millions)                          3.2              7%                   8%

                         Household disposable Income (£bn)                   46.3             21%                  23%

                         Household spending (£bn)                            45.0             22%                  25%

                   Source: Experian 2012

                   Performance of Leeds City Region Labour Market through Recession
                   (Using Business Register of Employment Survey from ONS)

                   Total employment in Leeds City Region, 2008-11
                   Total employment in LCR in 2011 stood at 1.3m. Against the backdrop of the recession, this is a drop of
                   39,000 (-2.9%) since 2008, very similar to the total decline of 3% across Great Britain as a whole (see
                   figure 4 below). There was a small fall of 1,600 ( 0.1%) over the last year, which was again in line with the
                   GB (-0.2%).

                   Fig 4: Employment Change, 2008-2011
                                                                Change, 2010-11                  Change, 2008-11

                                                            Number         % Change        Number               % Change

                         Leeds City Region                  -1,600           -0.1%         -38,800                -2.9%

                         Great Britain                      -46,900          -0.2%         -859,000               -3.0%

                   Source: Office for National Statistics

                   Figure 5 shows the pattern of change over time since 2008. LCR had a substantially smaller drop in 2009
                   than the national average, but this was followed by a much sharper fall in 2010.

9   LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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Fig 5: Employment Change, 2008-11

                                                                                                                Source: Office for National Statistics
     Leeds City Region       Great Britain

Employment in the main industries in Leeds City Region
Of the 17 sectors shown in figure 6, health is the biggest in LCR, with a 2011 total of 164,000, or 12.6% of all City Region
employment. Other major employers include manufacturing (138,000, or 10.6%), retail (130,000, or 9.9%), education (127,000, or
9.7%) and business administration & support services (102,000, or 7.8%).

The two sectors that created the most new jobs between 2008 and 2011 were transport & storage (+12,900, or +22%) and health
(+12,900, or +9%). The only other industries to expand significantly were mining, quarrying & utilities (+4,700 jobs, or +40%) and
professional, scientific & technical services (+2,600, or +3%). The fastest growing industry in percentage terms was mining,
quarrying & utilities.

The greatest number of job losses was in construction (-13,300 jobs or -18%), followed by accommodation & food services (-12,900
jobs, or -14%). Manufacturing (-9,500 jobs, or -6%), education (-9,200 jobs or -7%) and retail (-8,100 jobs or -6%) also suffered
substantial job losses. Financial & insurance services lost 9% of its 2008 employment (6,000 jobs), while the property services
sector suffered the biggest percentage drop in employment of any of the major sectors (-22%, or -5,100 jobs).

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Fig 6: Employment change in LCR by industry, 2008-11
      Industry                                                       Total Employment       Employment Change, 2008-2011
                                                                   2008            2011         No.              %

      Mining, quarrying & utilities                            11,600             16,300       4,700            40.3%

      Manufacturing                                           147,300             137,700      -9,500           -6.5%

      Construction                                             75,900             62,600      -13,300           -17.6%

      Motor trades                                             25,800             26,500        700              2.7%

      Wholesale                                                65,300             62,900       -2,400           -3.7%

      Retail                                                  137,000            128,900       -8,100           -5.9%

      Transport & storage                                      59,500             72,400       12,900           21.7%

      Accomm/food services                                     91,100             78,200      -12,900           -14.2%

      Info & communications                                    40,900             40,200       -600             -1.6%

      Finance & insurance                                      66,200             60,300       -6,000           -9.0%

      Property                                                 22,900             17,800       -5,100           -22.1%

      Prof, scientific & technical                             86,900             89,400       2,600             3.0%

      Business admin/support                                  103,100            101,500       -1,600           -1.5%

      Public admin & defence                                   65,500             63,600       -1,900           -2.9%

      Education                                               135,800            126,600       -9,200           -6.8%

      Health                                                  151,300            164,200       12,900            8.5%

      Arts, rec, other services                                53,500             52,600        -900            -1.6%

      All industries                                         1,340,900          1,302,200     -38,800           -2.9%

Source: Office for National Statistics

Comparisons with Employment Change in GB
Looking at the proportion of total employment in each of these industries in LCR and GB, the structure of the City Region
economy is broadly similar to that of the country as a whole. LCR has higher shares in manufacturing, transport & storage,
wholesale, education and financial services and below-average shares in several service industries, including accommodation &
food, information & communications, and professional, scientific & technical services.

11            LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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    However, the pattern of change by industry since 2008 has differed substantially from the national
    average in a number of sectors. Those industries in which LCR has performed substantially better than
    the rest of GB include:

    •   mining, quarrying & utilities (a 40% increase locally compared to 16% nationally)
    •   transport & storage (+22% in LCR against -3%)
    •   motor trades (+3% against -4%)
    •   business administration & support services (-2% against -7%)
    •   manufacturing (-6% in LCR compared to -9%)
    •   professional, scientific & technical services (+3% against no change)

    Conversely, the City Region performed less well than GB in the following industries:

    •   property services (-22% in LCR compared to +5% nationally)
    •   accommodation & food services (-14% against -3%)
    •   education (-7% against -1%)
    •   retail (-6% in LCR compared to -3% across GB)
    •   construction (-18% against -15%)

    At this point, it is worth noting that nationally, the labour market has performed remarkably well
    throughout this economic downturn - especially over the last 12 months. Despite very sluggish – if not
    non-existent - GDP growth, employment levels have increased. This implies that productivity is falling.
    The reasons for this are varied but not explored in this review.

    Industrial specialisation in Leeds City Region
    An alternative measure of the significance of individual industries is the level of employment
    ‘specialisation’ that exists in LCR in comparison to the GB average. This is measured by comparing the
    share of total jobs in a particular industry within LCR to that industry’s national share. For example, if a
    sector has a specialisation figure of 200, that means it has twice as big a proportion of local employment
    as the national average. Conversely, a score of 50 means that an industry is only half as important to the
    City Region as it is nationally.

    This way of looking at specialisation is important, since it enables us to identify those key sectors in the
    local economy that comprise only a small proportion of total employment, but which form a significant
    part of the national total in that industry.

    Figure 7 shows the specialisation scores for the 17 principal industries highlighted in earlier tables, and
    also how these have changed between 2008 and 2011. Among these industries, there are four that have
    at least 20% more jobs in LCR than the national average: manufacturing, transport & storage, financial &
    insurance services and wholesale activities. Between 2008 and 2011, transport & storage experienced a
    dramatic increase in its specialisation score, having been similar to the national average at the start of
    the period. The other sectors saw relatively little change in their specialisation levels from 2008.

                                                          LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14       12
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                    There are four industries that have employment levels at less than 90% of the national average:
                    information & communication services, property services, accommodation & food services and arts,
                    recreational & other services. Specialisation levels in both accommodation & food services and in
                    property services dropped sharply between 2008 and 2011.

                    Mining was the other sector to experience a significant move in specialisation, with an increase from 83%
                    of national levels in 2008 to equal the GB average by 2011.
                    Fig 7: Specialisation by industry in LCR
                                                                       Employment      Specialisation scores (GB average = 100)
                                                                         in 2011           2008                   2011

                          Manufacturing                                  137,700             121                    124

                          Transport & storage                            72,400              98                     123

                          Financial & insurance                          60,300              125                    122

                          Wholesale                                      62,900              117                    120

                          Motor trades                                   26,500              104                    112

                          Education                                      126,600             115                    107

                          Mining, quarrying & utilities                  16,300              83                     100

                          Construction                                   62,600              103                    100

                          Health                                         164,200             96                      98

                          Public admin & defence                         63,600              97                      98

                          Business admin/support                         101,500             93                      98

                          Retail                                         128,900             99                      96

                          Prof, scientific & technical                   89,400              89                      92

                          Arts, rec, other services                      52,600              87                      88

                          Accomm/food services                           78,200              99                      88

                          Property                                       17,800              112                     83

                          Info & communications                          40,200              81                      81

                          All industries                                1,302,200            100                    100

                    Office for National Statistics; LCR calculations

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    A much clearer insight into the sectors in which the City Region has a strong national specialisation
    emerges from analysis of a more detailed industrial breakdown. Figure 8 below uses a classification of
    employment into 85 separate industries, and shows the 22 sectors in which LCR has specialisation scores
    of at least 20% above the national average.

    Fig 8: Employment specialisation in LCR – detailed industrial breakdown
                                                 Employment             Specialisation scores (GB average = 100)
                                                   in 2011                  2008                   2011

    Manufacture of textiles                         11,200                    346                      455

    Manufacture of furniture                        10,200                    219                      290

    Mining of coal & lignite                          700                     282                      236

    Manufacture of wearing apparel                   3,100                    105                      230

    Manufacture of other non-metallic                7,800                    158                      197
    mineral products

    Veterinary activities                            4,200                     54                      185

    Publishing activities                           11,300                     176                     178

    Water collection, treatment & supply             2,200                     119                     166

    Printing & reproduction of recorded media       8,600                     153                      150

    Manufacture of paper & paper products            3,700                     119                     147

    Manufacture of beverages                         2,400                    183                      144

    Manufacture of coke & refined                    600                       113                     143
    petroleum products

    Financial service activities, except            34,500                    144                      140
    insurance & pension funding

    Warehousing & support activities                26,600                     94                      139
    for transportation

    Remediation activities & other                   200                      130                      134
    waste management services

    Manufacture of electrical equipment              5,600                     82                      133

    Manufacture of other machinery & equipment      11,400                    162                      131

    Manufacture of chemicals & chemical products    6,300                     130                      131

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                    Manufacture of food products                               21,000              132                    131

                    Electricity, gas, steam &                                  6,800               101                   127
                    air conditioning supply

                    Land transport & transport via pipelines                   30,900              118                   126

                    Wholesale trade, except of motor                           62,900              117                   120
                    vehicles and motorcycles

                    Source: Office for National Statistics; LCR calculations

                    Some of the key points arising from this table include:
                    •     the City Region remains a key national centre for textiles and clothing – employment levels are 4.5
                          times and 2.3 times the national average respectively in these sectors
                    •     publishing and printing are strong activities locally, also perhaps associated with the high levels of
                          paper manufacturing
                    •     other manufacturing sectors in which LCR is strong include furniture, food, drinks, non-metallic
                          minerals, electrical and other equipment, and chemicals
                    •     despite job losses since 2008, there remains 40% more employment in financial services (banking
                          and building societies) than the GB average
                    •     there are also specialisations in water supply, waste management and energy supply
                    •     the City Region is also a logistics centre, with strong specialisations in wholesale and warehousing

                    Leeds City Region industrial structure compared to other LEP areas
                    Leeds City Region is one of 39 LEP areas in England. Looking at how LCR compares to the others:

                    •     with 1.3m jobs, LCR is the 3rd largest behind the London and South East LEP areas
                    •     only three LEP areas enjoyed employment growth between 2008-11 (Gloucestershire, Cornwall & the
                          Isles of Scilly and Oxfordshire). LCR’s rate of job loss over the period ( 2.9%) was ranked 21st of the
                          39 areas
                    •     LCR's manufacturing employment in 2011 (138,000) was higher than any other LEP area, this
                          represented 10.6% of total employment
                    •     the 60,000 workforce in financial services placed LCR 2nd behind only London, and 6th of the 39 LEP
                          areas in terms of the proportion employed in that sector (4.6%)
                    •     LCR had 269,000 people working in business services as a whole (including financial services), the 3rd
                          highest number behind London and Greater Manchester LEP areas. This represented 20.7% of
                          total employment.
                    •     there were 89,000 employed in professional services in LCR in 2011, 6.9% of the total. This placed
                          LCR 4th of 39 areas in terms of total jobs

15   LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
3

    Conclusions
    •   Over the last decade, the LCR economy performed strongly but still lagged the UK average
        across many key indicators like GVA and employment.
    •   However, over the last 12 months, economic activity rates have picked up in LCR and
        outperformed the national average.
    •   According to BRES, produced by ONS, health, manufacturing and retail remain the largest
        employers in the city region. Transport and storage and health created the most new jobs in the
        period between 2008 and 2011. Construction and accommodation and food services, lost the
        most jobs in that same period.
    •   The LCR economy has strong specialisms in key sectors like manufacturing, finance, transport
        and storage and wholesale.
    •   LCR’s manufacturing employment in 2011 (138,000) was higher than any other LEP area
        in England.
    •   The City Region remains a key national centre for textiles and clothing – employment levels are
        4.5 times and 2.3 times the national average respectively in these sectors

                                                        LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14   16
The Supply of Skills
     4

This chapter looks at the supply of skills into the LCR labour market and economy. It considers changes in population,
unemployment and qualifications and assesses the changing skills profile of the city region labour force.

Population
The latest population projections from ONS suggest that the 0 to 10 population in LCR will grow by 13% over the next decade,
just below the England average (16%). Leeds, Bradford and Kirklees districts lead the way in absolute terms, with projected
total growth of 32,000 representing 61% of the total. In percentage terms, Selby of projected to experience the highest growth
rate (22%) with Harrogate and Craven witnessing the least; 5% and 6% respectively as figure 9 below show.

Figure 9: Forecast change in 0-10 year group in LCR, 2011 - 2021
                Craven

                             Harrogate

                                          York

                                                     Selby

                                                             Barnsley

                                                                        Calderdale

                                                                                     Wakefield

                                                                                                 Kirklees

                                                                                                                      Bradford

                                                                                                                                       Leeds

                                                                                                            Source: ONS Sub-National Population Projections
     Absolute Change           % Change

17      LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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Figure 10 shows that eight of the ten districts that make up the City Region will have fewer teenagers by the next decade
compared to present levels. Bradford, however, is forecast to experience a 3% increase in the same age group over that period. .

Figure 10: Forecast change in 11-20 year group in LCR, 2011–2021
                Wakefield

                            Barnsley

                                          Harrogate

                                                      Kirklees

                                                                 Craven

                                                                          Calderdale

                                                                                               York

                                                                                                           Selby

                                                                                                                           Leeds

                                                                                                                                            Bradford
                                                                                                                   Source: ONS Sub-National Population Projections
     Absolute Change           % Change

Together, figures 9 and 10 suggest strong growth in the youth population over the next decade although the number of
teenagers is expected to fall. These projections are based on the 2011 census.

Unemployment
The latest claimant count data shows very little change over the last year, with LCR Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimant rate
at 4.8% compared to 4.9% in the UK. There were almost 91,200 claimants in the city region, as at the end of February 2013.

                                                                                       LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14                      18
4

Figure 11: Job Seekers Allowance Claimants in LCR
                                               Male                                         Female                                Total

                                  Number                  Rate%              Number                   Rate%                       Rate%

     February 2012

     Leeds City Region             63,326                    6.6                 28,317                    2.9                        4.8

     UK                          1,141,242                   5.6              544,747                      2.7                        4.1

     February 2013

     Leeds City Region             61,125                    6.4              30,061                       3.1                        4.8

     UK                          1,065,990                   5.2              547,799                      2.7                        4.9

Source: NOMIS 2012

The plight of younger people with regards to their employment prospects has attracted great attention throughout the
economic downturn. Figure 12 below shows that even though this remains a key issue in LCR, there has been some relative
improvement over the last 12 months.

 Figure 12: Youth Job Seekers Allowance Claimants in LCR February 2013
                                             Male                          Female                                      Total

                                 No.          %     12 month       No.       %       12 month        No.         %       12 month UK 12
                                                     change                                                               change month
                                                                                                                                  change

     Youth Claimants

     Aged 18-24                17,430        11.8      -1.3%       8,915    6.0       -0.2%       26,345         8.9       -0.7%            -1.2%

     Aged 18-24, claiming       6,005        4.1        0%         3,070     2            0.1%    9,075          3.1           0.1%         -0.2%
     for over 6 months

     All Claimants

     Claiming for over 61, 17,835            1.9       0.6%        7,290    0.8           0.3%    25,120         1.3       0.4%             0.3%
     12 months

     Claiming for over          9,735        1.0       -0.5%       5,585    0.6           -0.1%   15,320         0.8       -0.3%            -0.3%
     6 months

Source: NOMIS 2012

19          LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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The proportion of youth claimants (18 and 24 age group) is 29%, which is the same as it was 12 months ago. Male youth
claimants in LCR have fallen by 1.9% during this period.

Overall, long-term claimants (claiming for over 12 months) have risen by 2.9% over the last 12 months. This remains a critical
issue for the city region especially given the impending changes to the benefits system.

GCSE Performance
LCR districts have continued to improve GCSE attainment levels over the last decade. However, there still remains a substantial
gap between the best and worst performers. In 2005/6, only 31% of students in Barnsley achieved 5+ A*-C grades (including
maths and English), compared to 54% in North Yorkshire – a gap of 23 percentage points. By 2011/12, this gap had only shrunk
to 20 percentage points as figure 13 below shows.

Figure 13: 5+ A*-C grades inc. English & Mathematics GCSEs
                                                    2005/06   2006/07   2007/08   2008/09        2009/10         2010/11              2011/12

     Barnsley                                        30.7      31.5       33.1     39.3            40.2            44.4                  45.3

     Bradford                                        34.0      36.3      36.9      41.6            44.4            47.5                  52.4

     Calderdale                                      43.8      45.7      50.3      50.6            54.5            59.4                   61.1

     Kirklees                                        40.8      42.8      45.6      47.4            52.8            59.3                  62.0

     Leeds                                           40.4       42.1     46.4      45.9            50.6            53.7                  55.0

     North Yorkshire                                 53.5      54.2      54.7      58.6            61.6            63.2                  65.6

     Wakefield                                       42.9      46.5      51.3      49.3            55.8            57.4                  59.3

     York                                            48.8      54.5      53.8      59.2            59.1            62.1                   62.7

     LCR Average*                                    41.9      44.2      46.5      49.0            52.4            55.9                   57.9

     Yorkshire and Humber                            40.3      42.5      44.4      47.3            52.0            54.6                   57.3

     England                                         45.6      46.3      47.6      49.8            53.5            59.0                  59.4

Source: Department for Education Statistics, 2013                                                                    *This includes all of North Yorkshire

Of the eight Local Education Authorities that make up LCR, four remain below the national average (although Wakefield is now
only very marginally below) and three remain below the LCR average, in terms of GCSE achievement. These are Barnsley,
Bradford and Leeds. Given that the Leeds and Bradford districts have 45% of the youth population (0-19) in LCR, their
continued under-achievement should remain a concern, despite the continued improvement.

                                                                                  LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14                   20
4

 Higher Level Qualifications
 Since the Leitch Review reported in 2006, considerable policy attention has been focused on increasing the proportion of the
 working-age population with high level skills. In Britain, the proportion of the population with NVQ4 or above qualifications (or
 equivalent) has increased from 33% in 2008 to 39% in 2012. In London, this has increased from 45% to 54% in the same
 period as shown in Figure 15 below.

 Figure 14: Change in Level 4+ Qualifications 2008-2012 (%)
                 Derby, Derbyshire,
                  Nottingham and
                  Nottinghamshire

                                            Greater Birmingham
                                                    and Solihull

                                                                   Greater Manchester

                                                                                        Leeds City Region

                                                                                                             London

                                                                                                                             West of England

                                                                                                                                                      York, North Yorkshire
                                                                                                                                                            and East Riding

                                                                                                                                                                                     Great Britain

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 2012
                                                                                                            2008      2009                     2010                           2011           2012

However, in the Greater Birmingham and Solihull LEP area only a very marginal improvement has been recorded – from 30.1% to
30.4%. In LCR, the highly qualified population has increased from 29% to 33% since 2007. This improvement, whilst commendable,
still lags the national average.

Further Education and Training
The number of enrolments, starts and achievements in FE and training in LCR has remained steady over the last few years, as
Figure 15 shows.

21           LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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Figure 15: Enrolments, Starts, Achievements and Training in LCR FE

Source: Data Service SFA
                                                                       2007/2008         2008/2009         2009/2010         2010/2011

Enrolments, starts and achievements increased from 2008/9 to 2009/10 but then fell in the 2010/11 academic year by 3%, 3%
and 2% respectively. It is important to note here that the data presented here is supplied by the Skills Funding Agency’s Data
Service. The number of enrolments, starts and achievements shown do not directly correspond to individuals. In other words,
there is a significant element of double counting inherent in these figures as students often enrol and start more than one
course or module in an academic year. It is also worth noting that the data used in this analysis is aggregated based on where
the learning takes place rather than the learner’s postcode. It therefore shows the learning and training on offer in LCR, the vast
majority of which will be accessed by learners who are resident within LCR boundaries.

When study preferences are analysed by age, some clear differences in subject of study become apparent. Employability
courses are offered to most students in FE, therefore this has been excluded from the graph below. In total, there were 190,158
starts in 2010/11 in the under 19 category in FE.

                                                                            LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14      22
4

Fig 16: Under-19 Starts in FE 2010/11

     Healthcare                    9%

     Creative & Cultural           9%

     Hair & Beauty                 7%

     Construction                  7%

     Active Leisure, Learning      7%
     & Well-being

     Hospitality, Leisure,         6%
     Travel & Tourism

     Land-Based &                  6%
     Environmental Industries

     Business, Administration      4%
     & Governance

     Children & Young People       4%

     Science, Engineering &        4%            Source: Data Service SFA
     Manufacturing Technologies
                                                 Healthcare and Creative and Cultural studies attracted the most starts in the
                                                 2010/11 academic year. Hair and Beauty also continues to be popular. It is an
     Business Information,         4%
     Technology &                                accessible course for some students who might otherwise not engage with further
     Telecommunication                           education. However, the LCR economy will require a greater proportion of highly
                                                 skilled labour in the workforce to improve its competiveness. This though should
     Process & Manufacturing       4%            not be at the expense of entry level opportunities.

     Central Government,           3%
     Including Armed Forces

     Automotive Industries         3%

     Creative Media                2%

23       LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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Fig 17: Top 10 Under-19 Starts, 2009/10 - 2010/2011
              Creative
             & Cultura

                             Construction

                                            Hair & Beauty

                                                            Healthcare

                                                                          Land-Based &
                                                                         Environmental
                                                                              Industries

                                                                                                  Active Leisure,
                                                                                           Learning & Well-being

                                                                                                                    Hospitality, Leisure,
                                                                                                                      Travel & Tourism

                                                                                                                                            Science, Engineering &
                                                                                                                                                    Manufacturing
                                                                                                                                                      Technologies

                                                                                                                                                                       Children &
                                                                                                                                                                     Young People

                                                                                                                                                                                             Business Information
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Technology &
                                                                                                                                                                                              Telecommunication
     2009/2010           2010/2011                                                                                                                                                  Source: Data Service SFA

Between 2009/10 and 2010/11, learner preferences changed significantly in some of the key sector areas within this age group. For
example, starts in Creative and Cultural studies fell by over 2,000 whilst Active Leisure and Wellbeing, Business IT and Telecoms,
and Process Manufacturing all fell by over 1,000 starts.

On the other hand, Adult Social Care, (900), Hair and Beauty (700), Automotive Industries (450) and Science, Engineering &
Manufacturing Technologies (400) all recorded much higher starts.

Amongst the 19+ age group there were 95,000 starts in FE. Healthcare (13%), Business IT and Telecoms (13%) were the most
popular in terms of starts, followed by Adult Social Care (11%) as Figure 18 below shows. Within this age group choices were
more widely spread across the spectrum.

                                                                                                   LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14                                                               24
4

Fig 18: 19+ Starts in FE 2010/11

     Healthcare                      13%

     Business Information       13%
     Technology & Communication

     Adult Social Care               11%

     Hair & Beauty                   7%

     Lifelong Learning               5%

     Construction                    4%

     Building Services Engineering   4%

     Finance, Accountancy            4%
     & Financial Services

     Supporting Teaching             4%
     & Learning in Schools

                                                 Source: Data Service SFA
     Hospitality, Leisure,           3%
     Travel & Tourism
                                                 When the two age groups are compared, the data suggests that the 19+ group are
                                                 more conscious of the prevailing opportunities in job market and are thus making
     Land-Based & ,                  3%          their choices accordingly. This is no surprise given the age difference the experience
     Environmental Industries
                                                 and exposure these bring.

     Health & Safety                 3%

     Children & Young People,        3%

     Business Administration         2%
     & Governance

     Process & Manufacturing         2%

25       LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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Fig 19: Top 10 19+ Starts 2009/10 - 2010/2011
               Healthcare

                              Business Information
                                     Technology &
                               Telecommunication

                                                     Adult Social Care

                                                                         Hair & Beauty

                                                                                         Lifelong Learning

                                                                                                             Construction

                                                                                                                            Building Services
                                                                                                                                 Engineering

                                                                                                                                                Finance, Accountancy &
                                                                                                                                                      Financial Services

                                                                                                                                                                           Hospitality, Leisure,
                                                                                                                                                                             Travel & Tourism

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Land-Based &
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Environmental
     2009/2010              2010/2011                                                                                                                                                                            Industries
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Data Service SFA

Figure 19 above shows that starts in Healthcare increased significantly over the period (over 2,000 more starts) but Adult Social
Care recorded an even greater jump in starts; by over 3,600. On the other hand Business IT and Telecoms experience a drop in
starts of over 1,400. Other sector subject areas like Health and Safety, Creative and Cultural, Languages and Inter-Cultural Working
and Process Manufacturing (not shown here) experienced significant reductions in the number of starts over the period.

It must be noted here that sometimes such significant shifts in start preferences reflects more on the delicate and challenging
funding environment faced by colleges than on the actual preferences and demands made by learners.

Apprenticeships
Increasing the number and quality of apprenticeships (especially for young people aged 16-24) is a key part of the
Government's and LCR's skills strategy. Figure 20 below shows that whilst overall apprenticeship starts increased by 65%
between 2009/10 and 2010/11, this was almost exclusively a result of the sharp rise (119%) in adult apprenticeships over that
period. This increase in adult apprenticeships occurred mainly as a result of shifts in funding and as figure 15 highlights, did not
actually increase overall participation.

                                                                                                                LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14                                                            26
4

Fig 20: Apprenticeship Starts in LCR, 2007/8 – 2010/11

                        2007/2008                      2008/2009                         2009/2010                     2010/2011

     Adult      Youth          Total                                                                                         Source: Data Service SFA

Figure 21 below shows how the profile of apprenticeship starts changed in line with the shifts in funding

Figure 21: Profile of Apprenticeship Starts – by level                                         2009/2010         2010/2011             % Change

              Advanced level       Higher Level    Intermediate Level   Advanced Level       Higher Level    Intermediate Level
              Apprenticeship      Apprenticeship     Apprenticeship     Apprenticeship      Apprenticeship     Apprenticeship

                                       Adults                                                   Youth
                                                                                                                             Source: Data Service SFA

27      LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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Adult intermediate apprenticeships increased by 145% over the period whilst adult advanced apprenticeships rose by 85%.
Increases in youth apprenticeships were much more muted in comparison.

Figure 22: Top 10 Adult Apprenticeship starts by sector in 2010/2011 compared to 2009/2010
              Retail

                              Adult Social
                          Care/Healthcare

                                                    Business,
                                             Administration &
                                                 Governance

                                                                Customer Service &
                                                                    Contact Centre

                                                                                          Management &
                                                                                     Leadership (including
                                                                                       HR & Recruitment)

                                                                                                             Hospitality, Leisure,
                                                                                                               Travel & Tourism

                                                                                                                                     Adult Social Care

                                                                                                                                                           Children &
                                                                                                                                                         Young People

                                                                                                                                                                               Active Leisure,
                                                                                                                                                                        Learning & Well-being

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Hair & Beauty

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Data Service SFA
     2009/2010         2010/2011

The figure above shows that retail and Adult Social Care/Healthcare were the most popular choices amongst apprentices in
2010/11 even though the latter’s share of the total fell. Customer Service and Hospitality recorded the biggest falls in share over
the period.

                                                                                                                    LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14                                                        28
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 Figure 23: Top 10 Youth Apprenticeship starts by sector in 2010/2011 compared to 2009/2010
            Business Information
                   Technology &
             Telecommunication

                                             Business,
                                      Administration &
                                          Governance

                                                         Hair & Beauty

                                                                         Construction

                                                                                          Children &
                                                                                        Young People

                                                                                                       Customer Service &
                                                                                                           Contact Centre

                                                                                                                            Active Leisure, Learning
                                                                                                                                       & Well-being

                                                                                                                                                       Automotive
                                                                                                                                                        Industries

                                                                                                                                                                     Building Services
                                                                                                                                                                          Engineering

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Hospitality, Leisure,
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Travel & Tourism

     2009/2010                     2010/2011                                                                                                                                             Source: Data Service SFA

As with FE starts discussed earlier, Youth Apprenticeship starts differed with adults in terms of sector subject preferences.
Business IT and Telecoms, Business Administration and Hair and Beauty were the three most popular preferences in the under
19 age group. Starts in Children and Young People and Hair and Beauty fell significantly as a share of the total.

Higher Education
Business Administration and subjects allied to Medicine are the most popular courses in Higher Education (HE) in LCR
according to data from the Higher Education Statistics Authority. These accounted for 13% each of total enrolments in 2011/12.
Social Studies and Languages also proved popular as figure 24 below shows

29      LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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Fig 24: LCR HE Enrolment 2011/12
     Subject Area                                        2010/11   2011/2012          Change            Change           % Share
                                                                                    (absolute).           %            (2011/2012)

     Agriculture & related subjects                        121        136                15               12%               0%

     Combined                                             603        465                -138             -23%               0%

     Mathematical sciences                                1,331      1,362               30               2%                 1%

     Architecture, building & planning                    2,199      1,963              -236             -11%               2%

     Medicine & dentistry                                 2,224      2,274               50               2%                2%

     Mass communications & documentation                  2,777      2,968               191              7%                3%

     Law                                                  3,035      3,005               -30              -1%               3%

     Computer science                                     3,113      3,244               131              4%                3%

     Physical sciences                                    3,970      4,393              422               11%               4%

     Historical & philosophical studies                   5,476      5,713              237               4%                6%

     Engineering & technology                             5,766      6,271              505               9%                6%

     Education                                            6,753      6,503              -250              -4%                7%

     Creative arts & design                               7,628      8,353              725               10%               8%

     Biological sciences                                  8,071      8,505              435               5%                9%

     Languages                                            8,385      8,848              463               6%                9%

     Social studies                                       9,119      9,510              390               4%                10%

     Subjects allied to medicine                         12,301     12,516               215              2%                13%

     Business & administrative studies                   12,185     12,818              633               5%                13%

     Total                                               95,058     98,847             3,789              4%               100%

Source: HESA 2012 (Analysis by University of Bradford)

Physical Sciences and Creative Arts and Design increased enrolment 11% and 10% respectively, compared to the previous year.
On the other hand, Architecture, Building and Planning shrunk by 11% in terms of enrolment over the same period.

The latest data from the annual Destination of Leavers in Higher Education (DLHE) survey shows that 62% of the 2010/11
graduate cohort from LCR Higher Education Institutions (HEI) had secured graduate level employment within 6 months of their
summer graduations, compared to 61% the previous year. See figure 25 over the page.

                                                                            LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14    30
4

                    Fig 25: Graduate level Employment 2009/10 – 2010/11
                                                                                      2011/2012           2010/2011 %
                                                                             Number               %

                         Graduate (%)                                         5,922               62            61

                         Non Graduate (%)                                     6,361               38           39

                    Source: HESA 2012 (Analysis by University of Bradford)

                    An analysis of the occupations entered into by those graduates who have secured graduate level
                    employment shows some more detail.

                    Fig 26: Graduate Occupations
                         Occupation                                                                               % Share

                         Managers and senior officials                                                               5.1%

                         Professional occupations                                                                    15.8%

                         Associate professional and technical occupations                                            23.5%

                         Administrative and secretarial occupations                                                  6.2%

                         Skilled trades occupations                                                                  0.6%

                         Personal service occupations                                                                4.8%

                         Sales and customer service occupations                                                      8.5%

                         Process, plant and machine operatives                                                       0.3%

                         Elementary occupations                                                                      5.6%

                         Not known/Not applicable                                                                    29.6%

                    Source: HESA 2012 (Analysis by University of Bradford)

                    It is no surprise that many graduates entered professional occupations and associated professional and
                    technical occupations as this is the most likely destination for new graduates. Sales and customer service
                    occupations were also popular as 9% of graduates found opportunities there. These occupations provide
                    vital entry level opportunities for job seekers.

31   LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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Fig 27: Sectoral Breakdown of Graduate Level Employment
                                                                                             LCR Universities          % of LCR
                                                                                                  Total                Cohort

     Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles                          1,708                 12.6%

     Human health and social work activities                                                        1,391                10.2%

     Education                                                                                      1,190                 8.8%

     Professional, scientific and technical activities                                             1,065                  7.8%

     Accommodation and food service activities                                                      769                   5.7%

     Financial and insurance activities                                                              575                  4.2%

     Information and communication                                                                   561                  4.1%

     Arts, entertainment and recreation                                                              515                  3.8%

     Administrative and support service activities                                                  497                   3.7%

     Manufacturing                                                                                  388                   2.9%

     Public administration and defence; compulsory social security                                   375                  2.8%

     Other service activities                                                                        138                  1.0%

     Construction                                                                                    105                  0.8%

     Transport and storage                                                                           89                   0.7%

     Real estate activities                                                                          60                   0.4%

     Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies                                         44                   0.3%

     Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply                                             35                   0.3%

     Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities                             29                   0.2%

     Mining and quarrying                                                                            27                   0.2%

     Agriculture, forestry and fishing                                                                1                   0.1%

     Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods and services                      10                   0.1%
     producing activities of households for own use

     Not known/Not applicable                                                                      3,991                 29.4%

Source: HESA 2012 (Analysis by University of Bradford)

                                                                            LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14    32
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                       Figure 27 on the previous page shows that wholesale and retail, health and social care, education and
                       professional services provided the most popular opportunities for graduates over the last year.

                       Manufacturing and financial services, two of the most important sectors in the city region, only created
                       opportunities for 7% of recent graduates.

                       About the HESA/DLHE data
                       The dataset presented is - the destination of UK full time, 1st degree students, six months after
                       graduation, who responded to the HESA Destination of Leavers from Higher Education survey.

                       A further caveat on this data is the fact that it is for the Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) only (i.e. not
                       including the FE colleges, Open University, BPP, Kaplan etc.). It also does not include part-time student
                       numbers (stripped out to enable the HEIs access to completely comparable information), post-graduate
                       students or for that matter non university validated qualifications, e.g. ILM, CMI, CIPD etc.

                       Figure 28: Forecast Change in LCR Skills Profile

     2000

     2010

     2015

     2020              Source: UKCES/Working Futures 2012

33      LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
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    Figure 28 shows that over the next decade, the skills profile of the city region is forecast to change
    remarkably with a distinct shift towards higher level skills. The proportion with low or no qualifications is
    forecast to fall significantly over the same period.

    NEETS – 16 to 19 year olds not in employment, education or training
    Figure 29 shows that LCR has a lower NEET rate than Greater Manchester and also the Yorkshire
    average. Over the last year the rate has fallen by 1 percentage point. As part of the City Deal with central
    government, the city region has set itself an ambition to drive down the NEETs rate over the medium
    term.
    Figure 29: NEETS in LCR, December 2012
                                                NEETS                     Annual Change (percentage points)

         LCR                                     5.7%                                       -1.0%

         Greater Manchester                      6.2%                                       -0.7%

         YH                                      6.2%                                       -0.9%

         England                                 5.8%                                       -0.3%

    Source: Department for Education, 2013

    Due largely to the academic calendar, the “flow” of young people from one statistical category to
    another and the methodology deployed to derive the NEET estimates, the months of August and
    September are traditionally peak periods for NEET levels. Over the last 18 months, the estimated number
    of NEETS in LCR has fluctuated significantly. Figure 30 shows the August/September peak in 2011, sharp
    decline subsequently and then the 2012 peak.

                                                          LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14    34
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Figure 30: 16-19 year old NEETs in LCR – by Education Authorities, Jun 2011 – Dec 2012

                                                                       Bradford

                                                                                  Calderdale

                                                                                               Kirklees

                                                                                                          Leeds

                                                                                                                     North
                                                                                                                  Yorkshire

                                                                                                                                         Wakefield

                                                                                                                                                          York
              England

                        Yorkshire and
                         the Humber

                                        Leeds City Region

                                                            Barnsley

                                                                                                                              Source: Department for Education, 2013

NEET data is reported at Local Education Authority (LEA) level and in North Yorkshire this is at County Council level. This means
that the North Yorkshire districts that are part of LCR (Craven, Selby and Harrogate) are “bundled” together with the other
North Yorkshire Districts in this section.

35      LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
4

Figure 31: December 2012 and Change over the last 12 months - %

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4.0%
                                                                                                                                                    6.0%
                                                                                                                         6.6%
            5.8%

                                     6.2%

                                                                                                                                                                              5.9%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                           5.5%
                                                          5.7%

                                                                                              7.1%
                             -4.9%

                                                 -12.7%

                                                                                     -14.1%

                                                                                                                 -5.3%

                                                                                                                                           -17.5%

                                                                                                                                                                   -24.1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                  -14.5%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -12.7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -14.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -12.7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -11.1%
                                       Yorkshire and
                                        the Humber

                                                                 Leeds City Region

                                                                                                     Wakefield

                                                                                                                                Kirklees

                                                                                                                                                           Leeds

                                                                                                                                                                                     Calderdale

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Bradford

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Barnsley

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          York

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               North
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Yorkshire
                   England

     % 16-19s NEETS                         % change over the last 12 months                                                                                                                                                                               Source: Department for Education, 2013

At LEA level, NEET rates vary considerably. Figure 31 shows that by December 2012, the highest NEET levels in LCR were
recorded in Wakefield district (7.1%), followed by 6.6% in Kirklees and 6% in Leeds. York and North Yorkshire had the lowest
levels, 4.8% and 4% respectively. All LEAs in the city region have recorded significant improvement, compared to the same
period 12 months ago.

In absolute terms Figure 32 shows that the number of NEETs in LCR was estimated to be 5,809 in December 2012. A year
before then, the estimate was 7,333. It is worth noting here that the number of youth claimants (18-24) in LCR is currently
more than 26,000 (see figure 12). It could be argued that this might be deserving of even greater policy attention. However if
the level of 16-19 year old NEETs is not drastically reduced the number of youth claimants will continue to remain high
irrespective of the best policy efforts.

                                                                                                                                                                            LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14                                                                              36
4

Figure 32: 16-19 year old NEETs in LCR – Absolute levels

                                                                                                                      1,880

                                                                                                                                      1,274
                                      1,194

                                                                                             1,192

                                                                                                                942

                                                                                                                                                                                        828
                                                                                                                                              824
                                                                                       422
               503

                                                                                                                                                                                                           263
                                                         992
                                427

                                                                                                                                                                                              310
                                                                                                                                                                      915
                                                                                                                                                                561
                                                                    515
                     Barnsley

                                              Bradford

                                                                          Calderdale

                                                                                                     Kirklees

                                                                                                                              Leeds

                                                                                                                                                       North
                                                                                                                                                    Yorkshire

                                                                                                                                                                            Wakefiled

                                                                                                                                                                                                    York

     Adjusted NEET December 2011                               Adjusted NEET December 2012                                                                              Source: Department for Education, 2013

Unsurprisingly, Leeds has the highest number of NEETs in LCR. In December, 2012 this was estimated to be 1,274. At the same
period in 2011, the number was 1,880 as Figure 32 shows.

 When NEET levels in LCR are compared with the England average over the last 12 months, the evidence shows that the two
 almost mirror each other.

37       LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14
4

Figure 33: 16-19 year old NEETs in LCR and England – Jun 2011 to Dec 2012
            Jun - 11

                         Jul - 11

                                    Aug - 11

                                               Sep - 11

                                                          Oct - 11

                                                                     Nov - 11

                                                                                Dec - 11

                                                                                           Jan - 12

                                                                                                      Feb - 12

                                                                                                                 Mar - 12

                                                                                                                            Apr - 12

                                                                                                                                       May - 12

                                                                                                                                                  Jun - 12

                                                                                                                                                             Jul - 12

                                                                                                                                                                        Aug - 12

                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep - 12

                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct - 12

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov - 12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec - 12
     LCR               England                                                                                                                                                     Source: Department for Education, 2013

Figure 33 shows that over that after the traditional August/September peak, NEET rates generally fall till around April and then
start to rise again till the peak. However the 2012 peak (LCR: 7%, England: 7.3%) is lower than the 2011 Peak (LCR: 7.6%,
England 7.9%). This is good news but it is too early though to say whether this is due to an improvement in the wider economy
and the successful implementation of government and local policies.

     Conclusion
     •     Adult apprenticeships have increased but overall participation fell in 2010/2011
     •     62% of graduates secured graduate level employment.
     •     Creative and Cultural studies, Construction and Hair and Beauty are the most popular sector subject choices
           among under 19’s in FE but among the 19+ this was Healthcare, Adult Social Care and Business IT and Telecoms.
     •     GCSE attainment in 4 of the 8 LEA areas in LCR remained below the England average. This includes Leeds and
           Bradford which have 45% of the youth population in LCR
     •     JSA claimant rate in LCR (4.8%) is similar to the UK (4.9%) average. Youth claimant rates have remained
           unchanged compared to the same period last year. Longer term claimant rates have risen more sharply in LCR
           than in the UK as a whole.
     •     The skills profile in LCR is forecast to change over the next decade with an increase in the proportion with higher
           qualifications and a decrease in the proportion of the population with low or no qualifications.
     •     The number of NEETs in LCR has fallen over the last 12 months and is marginally below the England average.

                                                                                                                               LEEDS CITY REGION | Labour Market Analysis 2013/14                                                38
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