Lorenzo Cain v. Kansas City Royals
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Lorenzo Cain v. Kansas City Royals Submission on Behalf of Lorenzo Cain Submitting Team: 38
Table of Contents
I. Introduction and Request for Acceptance of Proposed Offer ..........................................1
II. Quality of Mr. Cain’s Contribution to the Royals this Past Season.................................1
III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions ............................................................4
IV. Past Player Compensation................................................................................................6
V. Comparative Baseball Salaries ........................................................................................6
a. Jon Jay........................................................................................................................6
b. Austin Jackson ...........................................................................................................7
c. Gregor Blanco ............................................................................................................8
VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects .........................................................................8
VII. Recent Kansas City Royals Performance ........................................................................9
VIII. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................10
iI. Introduction and Request for Acceptance of Proposed Offer
This brief, on behalf of Kansas City Royals’ (“Royals”) outfielder Lorenzo Cain (“Mr.
Cain”), addresses the factors to be considered in evaluating proposed salary offerings for the
2015 season. Mr. Cain is first-year arbitration eligible, having amassed 3.074 years of Major
League Service Time (“MLST”). The Royals have offered $2.1 million, while Mr. Cain has
offered $3.35 million. The midpoint salary is $2.725 million.
Major League Baseball’s (“MLB”) Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”) governs
the process and permissible information for salary arbitration proceedings.1 The Panel may
consider: (1) the quality of player’s contribution this past season; (2) length and consistency of
career contribution; (3) past player compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5)
existence of any physical or mental defects; and (6) the recent performance record of the club. 2
This brief limits the information provided to those categories. That is more than enough
to show Mr. Cain’s exceptional value. We ask the Panel to consider all the relevant factors. The
arguments contained herein show Mr. Cain is deserving of greater than the midpoint salary.
II. Quality of Mr. Cain’s Contribution to the Royals this Past Season
In 2014, Mr. Cain developed from a contributing to an essential player on a playoff roster
for the Royals. Before looking at the statistical breakdown, it is important to point out that that
Mr. Cain is the quintessential Kansas City Royal. From the start of General Manager Dayton
Moore’s tenure, Royal’s management has emphasized speed and defense.3 Mr. Cain became a
full-time starter for the 2012 season and was important to the team because of those attributes.
1
Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement, Article VI, Section E, Part 10(a) & (b), available at
http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf.
2
Id. at Part 10(a). Note that the following evidence shall not be admissible: (1) the financial position of the player
and club; (2) press comments, testimonials, or other similar material, except that recognized annual player awards
for excellent performance shall not be excluded; (3) offers made by either player or club prior to arbitration; (4); cost
of parties’ representation and attorneys; and (5) salaries in other sports or occupations. Id. at Part 10(b).
3
Jerry Crasnick, Dayton Moore’s vision validated, ESPN.COM (Sept. 30, 2014, 1:10 PM),
http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/11617063/dayton-moore-vision-kansas-royals-validated.
1The Royals value the extra attributes that a fast, dynamic CF provides. Mr. Cain, having just
ended his third season, contributed to one of the best defenses in MLB, while leading the team in
batting average. Mr. Cain finished the season batting third in the lineup on a World Series team.4
Mr. Cain played in 133 regular season games, logging 502 plate appearances. Mr. Cain
finished with 38 extra base hits (29 doubles, four triples, five home runs) and 53 runs batted in.
Mr. Cain accumulated the most at-bats of his young career, and his final numbers reflect this
fact, as Mr. Cain compiled career bests since joining the Royals in batting average (.301), on-
base percentage (.339), slugging (.412), and OPS (.751). The fleet-footed OF had a career best
28 stolen bases on the season.5
To add to the impressive season and as a sign that it is a true indication of who Mr. Cain
is at the plate, Mr. Cain performed on a consistent basis throughout the season. Mr. Cain’s final
statistics were not a reflection of a “hot month,” but rather of a player who was able to show for
six months (save a minor setback in July) all that he can do:6
Table 1 Mr. Cain’s Month by Month 2014 Offensive Production
Month G PA BA OBP SLG XBH RBI SB Runs
Apr/March 12 44 .333 .364 .381 2 5 2 7
May 21 85 .342 .400 .474 6 14 4 5
June 25 102 .286 .304 .439 11 16 1 11
July 22 88 .250 .284 .333 6 2 8 9
August 28 90 .305 .356 .378 6 5 8 11
Sept/Oct 25 93 .315 .344 .449 7 11 5 12
4
Adam Berry & Jerry Nowak, Lineup Breakdown: Giants vs. Royals, Game 1, MLB.COM (Oct. 21, 2014),
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/99158044/lineups-for-game-1-of-world-series.
5
Lorenzo Cain, Player Page, BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM (last visited Jan. 6, 2015), http://www.baseball-
reference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml.
6
Lorenzo Cain, 2014 Batting Splits, BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM (last visited Jan. 6, 2015), http://www.baseball-
reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cainlo01&year=&t=b.
2Mr. Cain’s greatest contribution comes from his defense. Due to lack of innings at a
single position, Cain was not a finalist for a Gold Glove.7 However, to any observer this season,
it was clear that the Royals outfield was one of the best in MLB, and it was led by the brilliant
range of Mr. Cain.8 Between CF and RF, Cain played 1,111.2 innings of the regular season. Mr.
Cain committed just two errors with a .994 fielding percentage and had career highs in putouts
(338) and assists (8).9 We argue for the introduction of just one advanced metric to show Mr.
Cain’s value, although there is an endless amount that can show his value on defense. Baseball
Reference calculated Mr. Cain to have the second best American League (“AL”) defensive wins
above replacement for position players (“dWAR”).10 This accounts for the importance of Mr.
Cain’s position and how much of an improvement Mr. Cain is over league average. dWAR is
explained more below.11 By looking at the runs saved on defense, the Royals benefit from Mr.
Cain throughout the game when he is in the lineup more than almost any other AL OF.
Mr. Cain’s most recent accomplishment is also his greatest. The fan favorite had a batting
average of .533 in the American League Championship Series (“ALCS”), scoring a team high
five runs, and hit two doubles.12 Mr. Cain’s offense, coupled with stellar outfield play, amounted
to Mr. Cain winning the Most Valuable Player award for the ALCS.13 The defense was shown to
all of baseball throughout October, leading to a plethora of articles on the greatness of the Royals
7
John Viril, Lorenzo Cain: How is he not a Gold Glove Finalist for the Kansas City Royals, KC KINGDOM (Oct. 28,
2014), http://kckingdom.com/2014/10/23/heck-lorenzo-cain-gold-glove-finalist/.
8
David Schoenfield, Lorenzo Cain catching everything in center, ESPN.COM (Oct. 5, 2014, 9:57 PM),
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/52293/lorenzo-cain-catching-everything-in-center.
9
See Lorenzo Cain, Player Page, supra note 5.
10
Year-by-Year Top-Tens Leaders and Records for Defensive WAR, BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM (last visited Jan. 6,
2015), http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_top_ten.shtml.
11
dWAR provides a metric to show how much more valuable a player is to other players of that position. The
formula uses defensive statistics as a whole, factoring in position adjustments, and compares to what the
“replacement level” performance at that position would give you. Then, the player’s Baseball Reference WAR is
judged by how many more runs (or in the case of defense, runs saved) than a replacement level player would be.
12
Eric Stephen, Lorenzo Cain wins ALCS MVP, SBNATION (Oct. 15, 2014, 7:53 PM),
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/10/15/6985721/lorenzo-cain-alcs-mvp-2014-royals.
13
Drew Silva, Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain named ALCS MVP, HARDBALL TALK (Oct. 15, 2014, 7:49 PM),
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/15/royals-center-fielder-lorenzo-cain-named-alcs-mvp/.
3outfield. Mr. Cain’s consistency in the outfield was matched by an exceptional postseason run at
the plate, all while being in the heart of a World Series lineup every night:14
Table 2 Mr. Cain’s 2014 Postseason Offensive Production
Series Opp Games PA BA OBP SLG Extra RBI SB
Base Hits
ALWC OAK 1 6 .333 .333 .500 1 2 1
ALDS LAA 3 14 .154 .143 .154 0 1 0
ALCS BAL 4 18 .533 .588 .667 2 1 1
WS SFG 7 30 .308 .400 .385 2 4 0
**Note: The series that Mr. Cain offensive statistics were the lowest, may have brought about
the most highlight reel plays in the outfield.15
When the Royals went on a run that united the city, brought baseball back to the forefront
for a starving fan base, Mr. Cain was declared the most valuable piece to an ALCS four game
sweep. Coupled with his regular season, Mr. Cain’s value far exceeds the $2.725 million
midpoint salary.
III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions
While Mr. Cain had a breakout year on the national stage, his defense has been consistent
for many years and statistics show that there has been offensive promise at the Major League
level from the start:16
Table 3 Mr. Cain’s Career MLB Offensive Production by Year
Year Age Games Plate Runs XBH Stolen RBI BA OBP OPS
Played Appear. Bases
2010 24 43 158 17 13 7 13 .306 .348 .763
2011 25 6 23 4 1 0 1 .273 .304 .623
2012 26 61 244 27 18 10 31 .266 .316 .734
2013 27 115 443 54 28 14 46 .251 .310 .658
2014 28 133 502 55 38 28 53 .301 .339 .751
*Career bests in bold
14
See Lorenzo Cain, Player Page, supra note 5.
15
See Cain Amazes in Royals’ Outfield, MLB.COM (Oct. 5, 2014),
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73497276/v36760223/cain-displays-his-amazing-defense-in-2014-
postseason/?player_id=456715.
16
See Lorenzo Cain, Player Page, supra note 5.
42014 was a great leap and improvement in many categories, but it was also Mr. Cain’s
most complete opportunity as a starter at the Major League level. Although Mr. Cain’s on-base
percentage could be seen as an outlier, it should be seen more as Mr. Cain revealing his total
potential.
Further, Cain is 28 years old, but his late start in development should be a major
consideration in judging comparable player development timelines. Mr. Cain did not start
playing baseball until his sophomore year of high school.17 Mr. Cain was learning the basics of
baseball in the tenth grade when most others learned them before they were ten years old. Mr.
Cain’s rapid improvement can be seen much less as a mirage and much more as natural player
progression when this is factored in.
Drafted in 2005, Mr. Cain reached the majors by 2010. However, some of his early rise
after arrival was slowed due to injuries. Most of the 2012 season, save 61 games, was lost due to
a series of injuries. The athletic CF had not had any serious health concerns prior to 2012, but
some leg issues arose.18 Because of the leg injuries, 2013’s hitting decline can be explained. For
a player who only began baseball in high school, losing most of a year can have lingering
influence on a player. With those seasons behind, Mr. Cain was nearly clear of all health
concerns besides minor injuries, the sorts of which all players experience. Mr. Cain’s early
injuries should not be considered long-term concerns. The injuries have been muscular and easy
to rehabilitate. Nothing indicates that Mr. Cain cannot repeat 2014 with over 130 starts, possibly
approaching 150, in the outfield for the Royals. Although Mr. Cain has now has over three years
of MLST, the 2014 season is the greatest indicator of his performance value for 2015.
17
Paul White & Rachel Axon, Lorenzo Cain’s road from ‘terrible’ to the World Series, USA TODAY (Oct. 21, 2014,
1:02 AM) http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/10/20/lorenzo-cain-late-bloomer-kansas-city-royals-
world-series/17640339/.
18
For more details, see Part VI.
5IV. Past Player Compensation
Mr. Cain, as per the CBA, made approximately league minimum during the first three
years. Mr. Cain’s first season of MLB salary was 2012 when he began the season as the Royals’
CF before injury. Cain was paid $480,850 in 2012. In 2013, Mr. Cain’s salary increased to
$503,175. Finally, Mr. Cain’s 2014 salary was $546,000. With Cain now it is without question
that it is time for a large salary increase. Both sides recognize this as the Royals also offer about
four times his 2014 compensation. However, we ask the Panel to now consider Mr. Cain to
similarly situated players of previous years and determine that Mr. Cain’s value is greater than
the midpoint salary and much more consistent with a $3.35 million salary in 2015.
V. Comparative Baseball Salaries
With Mr. Cain playing both CF and RF, comparisons need not be limited to CFs. Mr.
Cain finished the regular season as the #3 hitter in the lineup and remained there throughout the
playoffs. With this being said, we ask the Panel to look at three players to better gauge Mr.
Cain’s value. The comparisons will show both the player’s season prior to first year of arbitration
(“platform season”) and career totals, up to and including the platform season only.
a. Jon Jay ($3.25 million in 2014)
Table 419 Platform Season Career (up to and including
platform season)
G PA BA OBP SLG XBH RBI SB G BA RBI XBH SB
Cain 133 502 .301 .339 .412 38 53 28 358 .279 144 98 59
Jay 157 628 .276 .351 .370 36 46 10 538 .295 171 127 37
The Cardinals OF entered his first year of arbitration at 28, just like Mr. Cain. However,
Jay had played in significantly more games by then. Jay has been the model of consistency in
terms of offensive output since his arrival. Jay’s 2013 plate appearances were drastically greater
19
Jon Jay, Player Page, BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM (last visited Jan. 6, 2015), http://www.baseball-
reference.com/players/j/jayjo02.shtml.
6than previous years for Jay, which can explain why his extra base hits were close to Mr. Cain.
Jon Jay has been a model of health, which is a category Mr. Cain concedes to be bested in.
Mr. Cain’s platform season had a batting average 25 points higher, a slugging percentage
42 points higher and 18 more stolen bases than Jay. On top of the offensive similarities that may
even lean towards Cain, Jon Jay’s defense—while solid—is not as complete as Mr. Cain’s.20
While Jay is above average in centerfield, Cain’s reputation should be taken into account when
comparing his to Jay or almost any other outfielder in baseball. Because of the similarities on
offense, Cain’s defensive reputation, and the recent ALCS MVP Cain brings, the $3.25 million
salary of Jon Jay should be a baseline for someone with the recent performance of Mr. Cain.
b. Austin Jackson ($3.50 million in 2013)
Table 521 Platform Season Career (up to and including
platform season)
G PA BA OBP SLG XBH RBI SB G BA RBI XBH SB
Cain 133 502 .301 .339 .412 38 53 28 358 .279 144 98 59
Jackson 137 617 .300 .377 .479 55 66 12 441 .280 152 146 61
Austin Jackson was just 25 at the end of his first season prior to arbitration. However, the
careers of the two centerfielders have had similar values to their teams. As the statistics show,
Jackson is better at the plate in terms of power and on-base percentage. Unlike Mr. Cain, Jackson
strikes out at an extremely high rate—485 times in first three seasons—compared to Cain only
having struck out 286 times thus far in his career. Nearly 200 more strikeouts does not bode well
for long term success, as Jackson is much more dependent on a high success rate on the fewer
20
“Using the stats from Fangraphs, Jay has the worst arm among all qualifying CF’ers. While you’ll hear constant
praise for him not making an error, the one thing you won’t hear is that he has the weakest arm in CF in MLB.”
Time to Tell the Truth about Jon Jay, Cards Conclave (June 22, 2013),
http://www.cardsconclave.com/2013/06/22/time-truth-jon-jay/.
21
Austin Jackson, Player Page, BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM (last visited Jan. 6, 2015), http://www.baseball-
reference.com/players/j/jacksau01.shtml.
7balls that he puts in play. This has led to Jackson’s batting average declining over the last two
seasons since he received the $3.50 million in his first year of arbitration.
On the defensive side, Jackson and Mr. Cain have a fairly similar reputation as stalwarts
for large outfields in the AL. Jackson had a .997 fielding percentage in 2012 and has ranked
highly in defensive WAR in previous seasons. The comparable statistics show that Mr. Cain’s
value is extremely similar to that of Austin Jackson’s first three seasons, whose performance was
rewarded by a salary that is $150,000 more than Mr. Cain is asking for.
c. Gregor Blanco ($2.525 million in 2014)
Table 622 Platform Season Career (up to and including
platform season)
G PA BA OBP SLG XBH RBI SB G BA RBI XBH SB
Cain 133 502 .301 .339 .412 38 53 28 358 .279 144 98 59
Blanco 141 511 .265 .341 .350 26 41 14 535 .257 128 84 66
Gregor Blanco’s career offensive totals fall greatly below Mr. Cain’s in all but on-base
percentage. Also, Mr. Cain’s ability to provide more extra base hits and stolen bases makes Cain
a more complete player. Blanco was 29 years old at the time of his first arbitration, but does not
have the benefit of beginning his development later in life. Cain’s intangibles and newfound
label as an up-and-coming star is what separates these two outfielders.23 While the offensive and
defensive statistics may be comparable to a degree, Cain’s ALCS MVP and reputation as an
emerging star should plainly separate his salary from that of Blanco’s $2.525 million in 2014.
VI. Existence of Physical and Mental Defects
One of the few concerns about Mr. Cain is that he has not established that he can
consistently remain off the DL. However, Mr. Cain’s injuries are not those causing long-term
22
Gregor Blanco, Player Page, BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM (last visited Jan. 6, 2015), http://www.baseball-
reference.com/players/b/blancgr01.shtml.
23
Jeff Sullivan, Welcome to Stardom, Lorenzo Cain, FANGRAPHS (Oct. 16, 2014),
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/welcome-to-stardom-lorenzo-cain/.
8concerns. Prior to 2012, Mr. Cain was not slowed by injuries.24 Then, the greatest problem was a
torn hip flexor in 2012.25 Cain had not had a history with injuries and was able to recover and
regain a starting role by spring training in 2013. Outside of the 2012 hip injury, Mr. Cain’s health
issues have been mostly muscular26—groin and hamstring troubles—and the kind that continued
rehabilitation and training should prevent.
Mr. Cain played 133 games in the 2014 regular season and played every inning of the
playoff run. Mr. Cain is coming off his healthiest season as the Royals CF in a year where the
most was asked of him. Mr. Cain’s ability to reach more of his potential has been realized by a
fan base that is quickly growing.27 Mr. Cain has become a role model for many young athletes
looking to baseball. Cain’s stellar off the field reputation adds to his value in a franchise that
prides itself for being closely tied to its community.
VII. Recent Kansas City Royals Performance28
After 29 years without a playoff appearance, the Royals returned in a big way. With
players like Mr. Cain leading the way, the Royals won the first Wild Card spot in the AL. The
Royals won their first eight playoff games in 2014, sweeping the AL playoffs. Mr. Cain provided
the greatest benefit in the ALCS when the Royals finished off the Baltimore Orioles.
The Royals lost in the World Series and came up one win short of their overall goal.
However, this past season saw a three game regular season win increase from 2013.
24
Dick Kaegel, Cain working to prevent injuries, reclaim job, MLB.COM (Nov. 14, 2012),
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/40283406/.
25
Nathan Aderhold, MLB Injury Updates, Matt Garza, David Ortiz, Logan Morrison, Lorenzo Cain, MLB DAILY
DISH (Feb. 6, 2013, 1:00 PM), http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/2/6/3958464/mlb-injury-updates-matt-garza-
david-ortiz-logan-morrison-lorenzo-cain.
26
D.J. Short, Lorenzo Cain expected to miss rest of season with hamstring injury, HARDBALL TALK (Sept. 15, 2012,
11:21 AM), http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/15/lorenzo-cain-expected-to-miss-rest-of-season-with-
hamstring-injury/.
27
Albert Chen, For Royals’ Cain, playoff stardom is years of hard work in making, SPORTS ILLUSTRATED (Oct. 18,
2014), http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/10/18/lorenzo-cain-kansas-city-royals-world-series-alcs.
28
Doug Miller, Streak to AL Pennant defined 2014 for Royals, MLB.COM (Dec. 25, 2014),
http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article/104674896/streak-to-al-pennant-world-series-defined-2014-for-kc-royals.
9Additionally, it was the Royals first back to back winning seasons since 1985. Management has
repeatedly stated that the biggest factor for the Royals return to prominence has been the
emergence of young talent. Mr. Cain is at the center, figuratively and literally, of the emerging
talent that has made Kansas City a contender. It is without doubt, Mr. Cain is integral to the
Royals’ chances at making a repeat playoff appearance in 2015.
In addition to on the field benefits from the 2014 season, the Royals should expect a huge
increase in attendance for the upcoming season. The team already increased attendance from
previous years by 6% in 2014 and should now expect season ticket sales to possibly reach a
double digit improvement.29 The combination of success and a roster filled with likeable players
like Mr. Cain has made the Royals a hot ticket in Kansas City. This success leads to increased
revenues for a franchise that has struggled for the last three decades.
VIII. Conclusion
Mr. Cain embodies the attributes management looks for in a Kansas City Royal. His
athleticism is superior to many, his defense is elite, and his ability to consistently put the ball in
play gives this team their best chance at producing runs. Mr. Cain has now been recognized on
the national stage as the ALCS MVP and has emerged as a fan favorite for a fan base that is
growing through new fans and those that are returning from this past October’s team success. For
these reasons, Mr. Cain argues that the $3.35 million offer is much more indicative of his value
to the Royals. This figure values his past performance, value to the team, and Mr. Cain’s
importance to the future. Mr. Cain respectfully requests that the Panel award him a salary greater
than the midpoint of $2.725 million for the 2015 season and equal to $3.35 million.
29
Patrick Rishe, 2014 AL Champ Kansas City Royals: Their Economic Past, Present, and Future, FORBES (Oct. 16,
2014, 12:11 AM), http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2014/10/16/2014-al-champ-kansas-city-royals-their-
economic-past-present-and-future/.
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