CURRENCY March 2019 - moving money for better - Western Union ...

Page created by Florence Duncan
 
CONTINUE READING
CURRENCY March 2019 - moving money for better - Western Union ...
MARKET       CURRENCY
INSIGHT      OUTLOOK
INTO         March        2 0 19

GLOBAL
CURRENCIES   USD UNITED STATES
             CAD CANADA
             GBP UNITED KINGDOM
             EUR EURO ZONE
             CHF SWITZERLAND
             PLN POLAND
             CZK CZECH REPUBLIC
             AUD AUSTRALIA
             JPY JAPAN
             CNY CHINA
             NZD NEW ZEALAND
             SGD SINGAPORE
             moving money for better
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              UNITED STATES
  JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA

  February review                                                                                     March outlook
  Bouts of dollar weakness last month were largely shallow and                                        If it’s March, it’s all eyes on the Fed. The Fed will issue a policy
  short-lived. The dollar kept on elevated ground thanks to U.S.                                      decision and updated interest rate projections that have proven
  growth maintaining the upper hand against moderating peers                                          the bread and butter of the U.S. currency over recent years.                                   EUR/USD (12 MTH)
  abroad like Europe. Heading into 2019, the dollar was tapped                                        The Fed is all but certain to leave interest rates unchanged at
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1.26
  by many to underperform as the boost to growth from fiscal                                          a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. What should matter most for the
  stimulus fades and the Fed’s series of rate hikes put a brake on                                    dollar is whether the Fed still expects to raise rates before year-
  the economy. A crack may have formed in the world’s biggest                                         end. A Fed amenable to higher rates would offer more fuel for                                  1.21
  economy after retail spending staged the biggest drop in nearly                                     dollar appreciation.
  a decade in December.                                                                               „„ America’s economic fog could dissipate if the U.S. and                                      1.16
  „„ Dollar buoyant as growth abroad continued to trail the                                              China soon reach a trade accord that averts the imposition of
     world’s No. 1 economy.                                                                              higher tariffs.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1.11
                                                                                                                                                                                                         M    A    M    J    J   A   S   O   N      D       J      F
  „„ The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates anytime                                          „„ Circle the date: March 20, when the Fed issues a policy
     soon. Still, U.S. rates rank tops among developed-market                                            decision, new economic projections and Chairman Powell                                                                                  Source: Reuters, 2019
     currencies, supporting the dollar.                                                                  speaks.
  „„ U.S. retail sales plunged 1.2% in December, the biggest fall                                     „„ Modest YTD gain: U.S. dollar index up about 0.5%.                                          ECONOMIC DATA
     since 2009, suggesting the economy started 2019 with less
     horsepower than anticipated.
                                                                                                                                                                                                             „„ Base Rate:                   2.25-2.50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                             „„ GDP:                                    3.5%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                           „„ Inflation:                              1.8%
      Mar 1                         Mar 6                               Mar 12                                                        Mar 22                               Mar 28                            „„ Unemployment:                           4.0%
      ISM                           Trade                               CPI                                                           Existing                             GDP Final
      Index                         Balance                                                                                           Home Sales                                                             „„ Trade Balance:                   -$49.3 Bn
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT     SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                Mar 8                                                                     Mar 20                               Mar 26
                                                Nonfarm                                                                   FOMC                                 Consumer
                                                Payrolls                                                                  Announcement                         Confidence

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                  CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY            NZD         SGD
CAD
  JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA

  February review
  It may be the Year of the Pig, according to China’s Lunar
                                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              CANADA
                                                                                                      March outlook
                                                                                                      The Bank of Canada didn’t meet last month but its next decision
  calendar. But when it comes to major currencies, 2019 so                                            looms in early March. Canada’s central bank is not expected
  far has proven the year of the Canadian dollar. While it’s only                                     to raise rates any time soon, given the elevated level of global                              USD/CAD (12 MTH)
  the first quarter, Canada’s dollar has bounced back after 2018                                      risks. It remains to be seen whether Britain will exit the EU with
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.37
  when it shed 8% against the greenback, its worst performance                                        or without a trade agreement. A no-deal Brexit could potentially
  in three years. Canada’s buck has found support from hopes                                          wreak global economic havoc and spark a flight to safety in                                   1.34
  that talks between the U.S. and China might soon yield trade                                        the U.S. dollar. Consequently, area borrowing rates are likely to
  peace. Oil flying at 2019 highs above $57 also underpinned the                                      remain stationary at 1.75% at least through the spring.                                       1.31
  commodity-driven dollar.                                                                            „„ The Canadian dollar’s nascent winning streak could hinge on
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.28
  „„ Canada’s export-oriented economy could profit from better                                           U.S.-China trade negotiations.
     global trade prospects.                                                                          „„ The steady outlook for cross-border interest rates might keep                              1.25
                                                                                                                                                                                                        M    A    M    J    J   A   S   O   N      D       J      F
  „„ Jobs boom: Adding more than 60K jobs in January, Canadian                                           USDCAD confined to a tight range.
     hiring proved robust for the second time in 3 months.                                            „„ Canada, so far, is home to the year’s strongest major                                                                                  Source: Reuters, 2019

  „„ Strong hiring bolstered the case for the Bank of Canada to
     raise lending rates later this year.
                                                                                                         currency, with a solid 3.3% gain against the greenback.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ Base Rate:                            1.75%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ GDP:                                    2.0%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                          „„ Inflation:                              2.0%
      Mar 1                               Mar 7                                           Mar 15                               Mar 21                                           Mar 29                      „„ Unemployment:                           5.8%
      GDP Q4                              Trade                                           Manufacturing                        Wholesale                                        GDP Jan
                                          Balance                                         Sales                                Trade                                                                        „„ Trade Balance:               -C$2.06 Bn
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                     Mar 6
            Bank of Canada                      Mar 8                                                                                Mar 22
            Announcement                        Employment                                                                           CPI

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                 CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY            NZD         SGD
GBP
  GEORGE VESSEY, CURRENCY ANALYST – UNITED KINGDOM

  February review
  Sterling’s February went from a flop to a pop after GBP/USD suffered
  three straight weekly declines before surging to fresh 7-month highs.
                                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              UNITED KINGDOM
                                                                                                      March outlook
                                                                                                      With the UK set to officially depart the EU on March 29, Sterling
                                                                                                      could experience large swings in either direction as speculators
  GBP/EUR scored new 21-month peaks above €1.17 after spending                                        place bets on different scenarios playing out. Leaving the EU with
  most of the month gravitating around €1.14. Wild swings in the currency                             or without a deal remains the critical factor in determining Sterling’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                      GBP/USD (12 MTH)
  market underlined the sensitivity of Sterling to Brexit-related news.                               value. PM May still hopes to squeeze the withdrawal agreement                                   1.44
                                                                                                      through Parliament. If she fails, the likely scenario is an extension
  PM Theresa May endured another parliamentary defeat on her Brexit
                                                                                                      to Article 50, which needs the EU’s consent. This should bolster
  plan B in February. Despite the lack of support, PM May travelled                                                                                                                                   1.39
                                                                                                      the pound as it reduces the probability of a no-deal Brexit, but it
  to Brussels hoping to unlock the withdrawal agreement and win
                                                                                                      doesn’t solve the current impasse and may limit Sterling gains.
  changes to the Irish backstop mechanism. Sterling appreciated as                                                                                                                                    1.34
  optimism of a positive outcome increased expectations of a softer                                   „„ GBP/USD will look to target $1.35 short-term and $1.40 long-
  departure from the EU. The probability of a delay to Brexit also                                       term if a deal is agreed and passed through Parliament. A delay                              1.29
  increased with the EU suggesting a 21-month extension to Article                                       of the exit date should boost Sterling but limit gains. On the
  50, reducing the chance of a chaotic no-deal Brexit.                                                   downside, the low $1.20s and even $1.10 threatens if the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                      1.24
                                                                                                         exits without a deal on March 29.                                                                M    A    M    J    J   A   S   O   N      D       J      F
  „„ Nominal wage growth increased by 3.4% y/y in the three months to
     December, lower than forecast but still at decade highs. Meanwhile,                              „„ GBP/EUR will likely target €1.17 to €1.20 in the long-term if
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Reuters, 2019
     unemployment remained at 4%, the lowest level the since 1970s.                                      the UK exits the EU with a deal. An extension to Article 50
  „„ Inflation cooled to 1.8% y/y in January, which bodes well for
     real wage growth and UK household’s spending power. Robust
                                                                                                         could limit gains to €1.15 - €1.16, although slowing growth in
                                                                                                         Europe might cause upward momentum. Conversely, a no-deal
                                                                                                         scenario could see GBP/EUR plunge below €1.10 and even
                                                                                                                                                                                                     ECONOMIC DATA
     labour market conditions could catch the Bank of England’s eye,
                                                                                                         towards parity.
     possibly raising the probability of a UK rate rise this year.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              „„ Base Rate:                            0.75%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              „„ GDP:                                    1.3%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ CPI:                                    1.8%
                              Mar 5                                     Mar 12                         Mar 19                    Mar 21                                           Mar 29                      „„ Unemployment:                           4.0%
                              Services                                  Goods Trade                   Average                    - Bank of England policy decision                GDP Q4
                              PMI                                       Balance                       earnings                   - Retail Sales                                   (Final)                     „„ Trade Balance:                   -£12.1 Bn
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT     SUN    MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

      01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                                              Mar 13                           Mar 20
                                                                              PM May to                       Inflation          Mar 21-22                                        Mar 29
                                                                              update Commons                       (CPI)         EU Summit                                        UK leave EU

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                    CHF                   PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY            NZD         SGD
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              EURO ZONE
  GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA

  February review                                                                                     March outlook
  The euro’s valuation weakened further in February as market                                         Despite disappointing news flows in Europe, the euro has resisted
  watchers, monetary officials and international organizations                                        downside pressures quite well so far, especially against safe
  took notice of economic deceleration in the Eurozone. A key                                         haven currencies. However, cracks are appearing, with the $1.12                                GBP/EUR (12 MTH)
  moment was the release of new European Commission (EC)                                              barrier potentially tested by both EUR/USD and EUR/CHF rates.
                                                                                                      As we enter the last month before Brexit, investors will scrutinize                            1.17
  forecasts which displayed a sharp cut in 2019 growth estimates
  for the main Eurozone countries as an array of external factors                                     announcements and gauge the probability of a disorderly exit
                                                                                                      scenario. The March ECB meeting may also ignite market jitters as                              1.15
  keep dampening momentum. Increasingly concerned about
  a weaker outlook in Europe, central bankers began hinting at                                        officials could use a potential significant cut in outlook forecasts as
                                                                                                      an excuse to announce new accommodative measures. Markets                                      1.13
  action to boost activity.
                                                                                                      will also keep an eye of trade tensions between China and US in
  „„ Germany’s economy did not grow in Q4 2018, and Italy                                             case no deal, or any extension of truce period, is agreed by March 1.                          1.11
     technically entered a recession after registering a contraction
                                                                                                      „„ The ECB is likely to revise down its December growth and
     of activity for a second quarter in a row.                                                                                                                                                      1.09
                                                                                                         inflation forecasts. Markets are curious whether new easing                                     M    A    M    J   J    A   S   O   N     D       J      F
  „„ EC cut the Eurozone’s growth outlook for 2019 by -0.6%                                              steps will be announced at that time.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Reuters, 2019
     compared it’s November forecast of 1.9% to 1.3%.                                                 „„ Some officials argued for the launch of a new long-term
  „„ EUR/USD broke its $1.13 support several times and fell to a
     3-month low of $1.1231 before bouncing back at the end of
                                                                                                         cheap loan program (TLTRO) for European banks to
                                                                                                         encourage lending to private companies and households.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    ECONOMIC DATA
     the month.                                                                                       „„ A hard Brexit scenario or a resumption of trade tensions
                                                                                                         would strengthen investor concern about Europe’s outlook.                                           „„ Policy Rate:                            0.0%
                                                                                                         Safe haven assets would there be preferred to euro.
                                                                                                                                                                                                             „„ Annual GDP:                             1.2%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                           „„ Annual Inflation:                       1.4%
      Mar 1                   Mar 5                                                       Mar 15                                      Mar 22                                     Mar 29                      „„ Unemployment:                           7.9%
      Flash                   Retail                                                      Moody’s report                              Flash PMI                                  Brexit
      inflation               Sales                                                       on Italy                                    surveys                                                                „„ Trade Balance:                     €17.0 Bn
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT     SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
      Mar 1                               Mar 7
      Unemployment                        ECB
      rate                                meeting

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                  CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY            NZD         SGD
CHF
  ADAM MA, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – UNITED KINGDOM

  February review
  February was lacklustre for the Swiss Franc with the currency
                                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              SWITZERLAND
                                                                                                      March outlook
                                                                                                      The SNB will meet and as mentioned, a dovish tone from the
  remaining relatively flat against its G10 peers. Progress in trade                                  ECB could influence the SNB’s guidance. Traders will look to
  negotiations between the US and China has seen a decline                                            retail sales and CPI data released during the first week of the                               GBP/CHF (12 MTH)
  in demand for safe haven currencies, which saw the Franc                                            month. Bullish Swiss Franc traders will be hoping CPI does not
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.39
  weaken against the euro. Economic data yielded no positive                                          fall further, otherwise CHF may be at risk of further weakness.
  returns for the Swiss nation with inflation m/m remaining at                                        However, risk appetite surrounding global tensions will continue                              1.35
  18-month lows and Swiss GDP expected to fall. For a while                                           to drive sentiment surrounding the Franc, especially with Brexit
  the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has indicated it will follow the                                      debates heading towards a climax. An off-set risk sentiment                                   1.31
  European Central Bank (ECB) in regard to monetary policy. The                                       could drive the Swiss Franc higher.
  ECB has slashed the growth forecast for the bloc which will                                         „„ GBP/CHF trades at the higher end of the range however if
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.27
  most likely delay any possible rate hike forecasted for this year,                                     Sterling gets sold and the Franc gets bought the resulting
  which in turn will delay any tightening from the SNB.                                                                                                                                             1.23
                                                                                                         move could be severe resulting in a move back to the                                           M    A    M    J     J   A   S   O    N      D       J      F
  „„ The 12th of February saw a mini ‘flash crash’ hit the franc                                         SFr1.20 mark.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Reuters, 2019
     due to the lack of liquidity during Asian trading hours.                                         „„ EUR/CHF is mid-range at the moment but could see a move
     EUR/CHF rallied to SFr1.14 but found some resistance
     retreating immediately.
                                                                                                         back to the lower levels of SFR1.12 if a safe haven buying
                                                                                                         increases demand for the currency.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ECONOMIC DATA
  „„ GBP/CHF trades above the SFr1.30 mark after positive
     sentiment pushed the pound higher.                                                                                                                                                                     „„ Base Rate:                             -0.75%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ Annual GDP:                        2.4% (Q3)
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                          „„ Annual CPI:                     0.3% (Jan)
      Mar 1                               Mar 7                                                                                Mar 21                                                                       „„ Unemployment:                   2.4% (Jan)
      Retail                              Unemployment                                                                         SNH Monetary Policy
      Sales                               Rate                                                                                 Assessment                                                                   „„ Trade Balance:            CHF 3.04 Bn (Jan)
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

                              Mar 5
                              CPI

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                 CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY             NZD           SGD
PLN
  GEORGE VESSEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – UNITED KINGDOM

  February review
  The Polish Zloty suffered its worst monthly performance
  against the US Dollar since October last year. Concerns about
                                                                               CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                               POLAND
                                                                                                       March outlook
                                                                                                       Key risk events for the Polish Zloty this month include the
                                                                                                       National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) policy meeting on March
  slowing global growth continued to rock emerging markets, and                                        06. Though interest rates are expected to remain unchanged                                     USD/PLN (12 MTH)
  the USD/PLN lifted over 4% during February as demand for the                                         at 1.5%, a dovish tilt might be on the horizon considering
  dollar swelled amid souring risk sentiment. Appetite to buy the                                      economic growth slowed in the final quarter of the year and                                    3.90
  Zloty also dwindled after fourth quarter GDP growth slowed                                           inflation continues to slide. The decline in the Zloty against its
  to 4.9% from 5.1% y/y, which had previously held throughout                                          major counterparts is telling of investor sentiment. If sentiment
                                                                                                                                                                                                      3.70
  2018. Inflation came in at 0.9%, down from 1.1% the previous                                         continues to skew negatively, and global growth remains
  month and continued its steady decline since August, reducing                                        lackluster, then March could prove to be another tough month
  the chance of a shift in monetary policy from the current                                            for the Zloty.                                                                                 3.50
  1.5% mark. The overriding factor weighing on PLN strength is                                         „„ The European Central Bank (ECB) may prove more pivotal
  Poland’s dependence on growth in the Eurozone.                                                          to the Zloty should the message err on the side of caution
                                                                                                                                                                                                      3.30
  „„ USD/PLN jumped to May 2017 highs before bumping into                                                 amidst growth concerns. This could see EUR/PLN climb                                            M    A    M    J    J   A   S   O   N      D       J      F
     resistance around the zł3.84 level, similar to last year’s price action.                             further away from its recent trading range and USD/PLN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Reuters, 2019
  „„ The Zloty suffered four straight weekly losses against the Euro,                                     could extend towards new 21-month highs.
     flirting with the key zł4.34 handle where heavy resistance lies.
  „„ Some economic data from Poland did surprise to the upside
                                                                                                       „„ Focus remains pinned on US-China trade relations and global
                                                                                                          growth indicators to help gauge any directional conviction for
                                                                                                                                                                                                     ECONOMIC DATA
     with industrial output rising 6.1%, well above the forecast                                          emerging currencies like the PLN.
     consensus of 3.9% y/y.                                                                                                                                                                                   „„ Base Rate:                              1.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              „„ Annual GDP:                             4.9%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ Annual Inflation:                       0.9%
      Mar 1                                                                                Mar 15                         Mar 20                         Mar 25                                               „„ Unemployment:                           5.8%
      Markit                                                                               Inflation                      Industrial                     Unemployment
      Manufacturing PMI                                                                    (Feb)                          Output
       FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU    FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

      01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                     Mar 6                                                                                      Mar 21                                            Mar 29
                                     Interest Rate                                                                              Retail                                            Inflation
                                     Decision                                                                                   Sales                                             (March)

JUMP TO...               USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                 CHF                    PLN                      CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY            NZD         SGD
CZK
  SHANE SPARKS, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – UNITED KINGDOM

  February review
  The Czech Krona continued its volatile start to the year against
                                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              CZECH REPUBLIC
                                                                                                      March outlook
                                                                                                      Brexit is likely to grip the attention of FX markets throughout the
  the euro, US Dollar and Sterling, with over 1% swings in                                            month of March and will be a heavy influence on GBP/CZK. The
  February. The Krona is now 5% weaker against Sterling since                                         CNB has already raised concerns over the impact of a disorderly                               USD/CZK (12 MTH)
  its strongest point of the year with a move from Kč 28.2 to                                         Brexit and those traders with bets on the CNB raising rates in
                                                                                                                                                                                                    23.5
  Kč29.60. The Krona did find strength in the latter part of the                                      the longer term will be watching closely. On the 28th of March,
  month against the dollar and euro despite the Czech National                                        the central bank will meet again to discuss monetary policy with                              22.8
  Bank (CNB) holding interest rates. CZK/USD recovered 1.7%                                           a statement to be released following the meeting. On the 5th of
                                                                                                                                                                                                    22.1
  while CZK/EUR retraced a little over 1%.                                                            April, full meeting minutes will be released.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    21.4
  „„ The CNB held interest rates on the 7th of February, however,                                     „„ If the crown does suffer further selling bias this month and
     the meeting minutes on the 15th revealed that board                                                 the UK secures a Brexit deal GBP/CZK could take another run                                20.7
     members Vojtech Benda and Ales Michl voted in favour of an                                          towards the key Kč30.00 level.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    20.0
     interest rate hike helping the Krona to extend its gains.                                        „„ CZK/USD finds its self only 0.5% off the opening rate of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                        M    A    M    J     J   A   S   O   N      D       J      F

  „„ The central bank did voice concerns on a disorderly Brexit                                          year after the Krona recovered heavily after weakening in                                                                               Source: Reuters, 2019
     and the impact this could have on monetary policy.                                                  both January and February. An orderly Brexit could lift some
                                                                                                         concerns of the CNB and allow the Krona to move back
                                                                                                         towards the high of the year $22.139
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ Base Rate:                             1.75%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ Annual GDP:                              2.9%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                          „„ Annual CPI:                              2.5%
      Mar 1                                     Mar 8                               Mar 14                                                                                Mar 28                            „„ Unemployment:                            3.3%
      Markit                                    Unemployment                        Retail                                                                                CNB
      Manufacturing PMI                         Rate                                Sales                                                                                 meeting                           „„ Trade Balance:                       Kč20 M
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

                                                                  Mar 11
                                                                  CPI

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                 CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY             NZD         SGD
AUD
  STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

  February review
  The Australian dollar remained under pressure in February as
                                                                               CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                               AUSTRALIA
                                                                                                       March outlook
                                                                                                       The Aussie ended the month on a weaker footing as a
  a more cautious update from the Reserve Bank of Australia                                            slowdown in global trade and weaker Chinese data pressured
  weighed on the currency.                                                                             the currency                                                                                  AUD/USD (12 MTH)
  The RBA said: “Over the past year, the next-move-is-up                                               „„ The bond market continues to signal an interest rate cut is                                0.80
  scenarios were more likely than the next-move-is-down                                                   more likely with one cut now fully priced in by the end of
  scenarios. Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly                                            the year.                                                                                  0.77
  balanced.”                                                                                           „„ The focus on the slowdown in China remains critical
                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.74
  This message – which signalled the central bank was                                                     after key manufacturing activity numbers signaled
  considering a local rate cut – weighed on the local currency.                                           growing negativity.                                                                        0.71
  „„ The RBA also downgraded its forecast for GDP growth                                               „„ December-quarter economic growth figures, due 6 March,
     and inflation.                                                                                       will be closely watched.                                                                   0.68
                                                                                                                                                                                                         M    A    M    J    J   A   S   O   N      D       J      F
  „„ For the 2018-19 financial year, GDP growth was downgraded
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Reuters, 2019
     from 3.25% to 2.50% while the inflation forecast was
     downgraded from 2.00% to 1.25%.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                                                                             „„ Base Rate:                            1.50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                             „„ GDP:                                    2.8%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                           „„ CPI:                                    1.9%
                    Mar 5                  Mar 7                                                                    Mar 19                                                                                   „„ Unemployment:                           5.0%
                      RBA                  Trade                                                                    RBA
                  Decision                 Balance                                                                  Minutes                                                                                  „„ Trade Balance:               3.6 Bn (AUD)
      FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                           Mar 7
                         Mar 6             Retail                                                                               Mar 21
                          GDP              Sales                                                                                Employment

JUMP TO...               USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                 CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY            NZD          SGD
JPY
  GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA

  February review
  The Japanese yen was quiet last month, wavering in a narrow
  price range against its main peers. Market sentiment swung
                                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              JAPAN
                                                                                                      March outlook
                                                                                                      Once again, trade talks between China and the United States will
                                                                                                      be a hot topic this month. Even though recent reports suggested
  between relief over trade issues and concern about a weaker                                         “productive advancements” in talks (Cf. Donald Trump), hurdles                                 GBP/JPY (12 MTH)
  global economic outlook. While global market volatility smoother                                    remain and could ruin efforts to conclude a deal. A resurgence
                                                                                                                                                                                                     155
  than recent months, partly due to renewed hopes of a trade deal                                     of trade tensions would not only shake financial markets but also
  between China and US, yen valuation tilted to the downside.                                         weaken an already fragile global economy. From now on domestic
                                                                                                                                                                                                     150
  However, an increasing number of central bankers have adopted                                       fundamentals will be closely watched given the Japanese central
  a dovish tone in their official communication reminding investors                                   bank looks undeterred to ease further monetary conditions in support
                                                                                                                                                                                                     145
  of shaky economic conditions. Hence, market participants are                                        of the economy. Brexit is scheduled to become reality in late March,
  holding long yen positions in their portfolio in case things go sour.                               which could cause volatility for the Yen against the euro and pound.                           140
  „„ Japan avoided a recession as activity grew modestly in Q4 by                                     „„ USD/JPY will be especially sensitive to trade talks between
     0.3%. However, the sharp contraction of exports in January                                          Beijing and Washington. A trade deal could cause the                                        135
                                                                                                                                                                                                        M   A    M    J   J     A   S   O   N      D       J      F
     and muted pressures on prices depict a downgraded outlook.                                          exchange rate to break the ¥111 ceiling.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: Reuters, 2019
  „„ The Bank of Japan governor opened the door to new stimulus                                       „„ Monetary divergences could be a key driver for EUR/JPY in
     to reach inflation forecasts.
  „„ The Japanese yen moved sideways in a narrow range against
                                                                                                         March as concerns about new easing measures in Europe
                                                                                                         could be an occasion to see the rate returning below ¥124.                                 ECONOMIC DATA
     euro (¥124-¥126), greenback (¥109-¥111) and to a lesser                                          „„ GBP/JPY ended February strongly as markets turned
     extent against UK pound (¥141-¥145).                                                                optimistic about avoiding a hard Brexit scenario. That rally                                       „„ Policy Rate:                            -0.1%
                                                                                                         could intensify or reverse depending the late march outcome.
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ Annual GDP:                             0.0%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                          „„ Annual CPI:                             0.3%
      Mar 1                                     Mar 8                                     Mar 15                                      Mar 22                                                                „„ Unemployment:                           2.5%
      Deadline of the                           Revised Q4                                BOJ rating                                  Inflation
      China/US trade truce                      2018 GDP                                  decision                                                                                                          „„ Trade Balance:                   -¥55.3 Bn
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT     SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                                                                              Mar 18                                           Mar 26
                                                                                                              Trade                                            Summary of opinions
                                                                                                              Balance                                          of BOJ March meeting

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                  CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY          CNY             NZD         SGD
CNY
  STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

  February review
  The Chinese yuan remained strong in February with the
                                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              CHINA
                                                                                                      March outlook
                                                                                                      The US and China trade environment will remain critical with a
  currency reaching the highest level versus the US dollar since                                      particular focus on how any resolution impacts the CNY.
  July last year.                                                                                     The US government remained committed to demanding greater
                                                                                                                                                                                                    USD/CNY (12 MTH)
  A broadening improvement in global sentiment has boosted                                            stability in the yuan.                                                                        7.0
  Asian currencies and the Chinese yuan has benefited.                                                „„ The US government’s demand to keep the CNY stable
                                                                                                                                                                                                    6.8
  „„ Local economic news slowed in February with the Chinese                                             means any move above 7.00 now seems unlikely in USDCNY.
     New Year impacting on the data flow.                                                                Thus, substantial CNY weakness seems less likely.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    6.6
  „„ Trade remained pressured with imports down 10%                                                   „„ Chinese economic data has seen key activity measure
     in January.                                                                                         weakened. This month, local data will continue to be                                       6.4
                                                                                                         closely watched.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    6.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                       M   A   M     J     J   A   S   O     N      D      J       F

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Reuters, 2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                   ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                                                                           „„ Base Rate:                                4.35%
                                                                                                                                                                                                           „„ GDP:                                      6.4%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                         „„ CPI:                                      1.7%
      Mar 1                                     Mar 8                               Mar 14                                                                                                                 „„ Unemployment:                             3.7%
      Manufacturing                             Trade                               Industrial
      PMI                                       Balance                             Production                                                                                                             „„ Trade Balance:               $39.1 Bn (USD)
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                                                    Mar 14
                                                      Mar 9                         Retail
                                                      CPI                           Sales

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                 CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY          CNY             NZD            SGD
NZD
  STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

  February review
  The New Zealand dollar traded in a broad range in February as
                                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              NEW ZEALAND
                                                                                                      March outlook
                                                                                                      The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by
  risk sentiment remained positive while the Reserve Bank of                                          neglecting to become more negative on the global economic
  New Zealand stayed relatively upbeat.                                                               picture or signalling a potential shift in policy.                                            NZD/USD (12 MTH)
  The NZDUSD remained near eight-month highs but muted local                                          The RBNZ made a clear policy shift in early 2018 so the central                               0.75
  data meant the currency was unable to push higher.                                                  bank was unable to maintain its view that the next direction for
  „„ NZ economic data was mostly characterised as weaker                                              rates was evenly balanced.                                                                    0.72

     with employment growing less than expected as the                                                „„ The NZD might be supported by a positive resolution to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.69
     unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.3%.                                                        US-China trade story. On the other hand, a turn lower in US
  „„ Dairy prices remained stronger with this key metric                                                 equities is likely to be negative for the kiwi.                                            0.66
     continuing the rebound seen since December.                                                      „„ December-quarter economic growth figures, due 21 March,
                                                                                                         will be critical this month.                                                               0.63
                                                                                                                                                                                                        M    A    M    J    J   A   S   O     N      D       J      F
                                                                                                      „„ Looking further forward, the NZD will be next driven by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Reuters, 2019
                                                                                                         the April inflation report. Most recently, a slightly better
                                                                                                         than expected December-quarter inflation report boosted
                                                                                                         the NZD.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ Base Rate:                              1.75%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ GDP:                                      2.6%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                          „„ CPI:                                      1.9%
                                    Mar 6                                                                                Mar 20                                     Mar 27                                  „„ Unemployment:                             4.3%
                                    Dairy                                                                                Dairy                                      RBNZ
                                    Prices                                                                               Prices                                                                             „„ Trade Balance:               -$861 M (NZD)
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                                                                   Mar 19                                                           Mar 27
                                                                                                 Consumer                      Mar 21                               Trade
                                                                                                 Sentiment                     GDP                                  Balance

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                 CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY            NZD            SGD
SGD
  STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

  February review
  The Singapore dollar was mostly stronger in February as an
                                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                                              SINGAPORE
                                                                                                      March outlook
                                                                                                      The SGD remains tied to expectations around the US‑China
  improvement in global risk appetite saw sharemarkets and                                            trade story and the potential for a global slowdown in
  commodities all higher.                                                                             economic growth.                                                                              USD/SGD (12 MTH)
  The key USDSGD has slipped lower as the US Federal Reserve                                          The sudden slowdown in Chinese trade numbers, seen over the                                   1.39
  continued to signal caution.                                                                        last two months, will be critical for the SGD.
  „„ A mixed picture from local data saw retail sales plunge but                                      „„ Inflation remains elevated and will continue to be a concern                               1.36
     inflation unexpectedly remained above expectations.                                                 for the Monetary Authority of Singapore ahead of next
  „„ The SGD’s strength saw it climb to 18-month highs versus                                            month’s policy meeting.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.33
     the euro and near nine-month highs against the US dollar.                                        „„ The Singapore economy, largely dependent on trade, is likely
                                                                                                         to be impacted by the final result of the US-China trade talks.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.30
                                                                                                                                                                                                        M    A    M     J   J   A   S   O    N      D       J      F

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Reuters, 2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                   ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ SIBOR:                                 1.89%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            „„ GDP:                                     1.9%
  March2019 EVENTS                                                                                                                                                                                          „„ CPI:                                     1.9%
                              Mar 5                                     Mar 12                               Mar 18                                    Mar 25                                               „„ Unemployment:                            2.1%
                              Manufacturing                             Retail                               Exports                                   CPI
                              PMI                                       Sales                                                                                                                               „„ Trade Balance:               $2.4 Bn (SGD)
      FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON    TUE   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

JUMP TO...              USD                 CAD                   GBP                     EUR                 CHF                    PLN                     CZK                AUD               JPY            CNY            NZD           SGD
DISCLAIMERS

 Western Union Business Solutions (WUBS) has based the opinions expressed in this              ASIA PACIFIC                                                                                 New Zealand
 communication on information generally available to the public. Western Union                 Australia                                                                                    Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. In
 Business Solutions makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and                                                                                                       New Zealand, Western Union Business Solutions (Australia) Pty Ltd, NZ branch
 specifically disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions   In Australia, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
                                                                                               Company. In Australia, Western Union Business Solutions (Australia) Pty Limited ABN          (company number 3527631 and FSP 168204) (“WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial
 based on the opinions expressed and information contained in this communication.                                                                                                           products (if any) referred to in this communication. A Product Disclosure Statement is
 Such information and opinions are for general information purposes only and are not           24 150 129 749 and AFSL 404092 (“WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial products (if
                                                                                               any) referred to in this communication.                                                      available for each of the financial products that WUBS issues and can be obtained by
 intended to present advice with respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.                                                                                                            visiting http://business.westernunion.co.nz/about/compliance/.
 This communication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any         A Product Disclosure Statement is available for each of the financial products that
                                                                                               WUBS issues (if any) and can be obtained by visiting our compliance and legal web            Any advice provide in this communication is class (general) advice only and does not
 person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,                                                                                                        take account of your financial situation, objectives and/or needs. Because of this,
 country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use       page. Unless we expressly state otherwise any information given by WUBS in relation
                                                                                               to financial products will be factual information only and does not take account of your     before you act on it (including making any decisions and/or trading) you should
 would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject WUBS or its affiliates                                                                                                       consider its appropriateness having regard to your own objectives, financial situation
 to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.                        financial situation, objectives or needs. Because of this, before you act on it (including
                                                                                               making any decision and/or trading) you should consider its appropriateness having           and/or needs. WUBS recommends that you seek personalised (personal) financial
 This communication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does               regard to your own objectives, financial situations and/or needs.                            advice from an authorised financial adviser.
 not in any way create any binding obligations on either party. Relations between you
 and WUBS shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions provided to you             Before you decide to acquire a financial product from WUBS you should read and               Singapore
 before you undertake any transaction with WUBS. No representations, warranties or             consider the relevant product disclosure statement.
                                                                                                                                                                                            In Singapore, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
 conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this communication.                   Hong Kong                                                                                    Company. Depending on the nature and scope of the services, services in Singapore
 © 2019 Western Union Holdings Inc. All rights reserved.                                       In Hong Kong, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union            are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS
                                                                                               Company. Services in Hong Kong are provided by Western Union Business Solutions              Singapore”) and/or WUBS Financial Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS FS
                                                                                               (Hong Kong) Limited (company number 1474270 and CE number BGY438) (“WUBS”).                  Singapore”) (collectively referred to as “WUBS”).
                                                                                               WUBS is a licensed money service operator under the Anti-Money Laundering and                WUBS FS Singapore is a capital markets services licence holder for leveraged foreign
                                                                                               Counter-Terrorist Financing (Financial Institutions) Ordinance (Chapter 615, the Laws        exchange trading, and an exempt financial adviser for advising others, either directly
                                                                                               of Hong Kong). WUBS is also licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission in             or indirectly through publications or writings, and whether in electronic, print or other
                                                                                               Hong Kong to conduct Type 3 (leveraged foreign exchange trading) regulated activity.         form, concerning contracts or arrangements for the purposes of foreign exchange
                                                                                               Risk Disclosure Statements                                                                   trading and leveraged foreign exchange trading (other than advising others by issuing
                                                                                                                                                                                            or promulgating research analyses or research reports, whether in electronic, print or
                                                                                               1. The risk of loss in leveraged foreign exchange trading can be substantial. You may        other form, concerning any investment product and advising on corporate finance
                                                                                               sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds. Placing contingent orders, such       within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap 289 (“SFA”).
                                                                                               as “stop loss” or “stop limit” orders will not necessarily limit losses to the intended
                                                                                               amounts. Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. You may            WUBS Singapore is a remittances licence holder. All payment and remittance
                                                                                               be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds. If the required           services referred to in this communication are offered under WUBS Singapore’s
                                                                                               funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated.          Remittance Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). WUBS
                                                                                               You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account. You should therefore       Singapore’s service does not include any service under the Payment Systems
                                                                                               carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in light of your own financial           (Oversight) Act 2006.
                                                                                               position and investment objectives.                                                          WUBS is not licensed, registered or authorised, or hold themselves out to be
                                                                                               2. Client assets received or held by WUBS or a WUBS group company outside                    licensed, registered or authorised to conduct any regulated activities under the SFA,
                                                                                               Hong Kong are subject to the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant                 financial advisory services under the Financial Advisers Act, Cap 110, money
                                                                                               overseas jurisdiction which may be different from the Securities and Futures                 changing business and remittance business under the Money-Changing and
                                                                                               Ordinance (Cap. 571) and the rules made thereunder. Consequently, such client assets         Remittance Business Act, Cap 187, and any other financial services or activities
                                                                                               may not enjoy the same protection as that conferred on client assets received or held        subject to regulatory supervisions by the MAS or any other authority in Singapore,
                                                                                               in Hong Kong.                                                                                save in respect of the specific activities described above for which each entity holds
                                                                                                                                                                                            a licence or an exemption to conduct such specific activities.
DISCLAIMERS

 NORTH AMERICA                                                                              France                                                                                     Malta
 Canada                                                                                     In France, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union             Western Union Business Solutions is a business unit of The Western Union Company.
 In Canada, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union             Company and provides services in France through its wholly-owned subsidiary                Services in Malta are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Malta) Limited, a
 Company. Services in Canada are provided by Custom House ULC, a company within             Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch, (referred to as “WUBS” or            limited company registered in Malta (Company Number C22339) with its registered office
 the Western Union Business Solutions division.                                             “Western Union Business Solutions”).                                                       at W Business Centre, Level 5, Triq Dun Karm, Birkirkara By-Pass, Birkirkara, BKR 9033,
                                                                                            Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch (RCS Nanterre 750 938 094)            Malta and which is licensed and regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority to
 USA                                                                                                                                                                                   undertake the business of financial services in terms of the Financial Institutions Act.
                                                                                            has a registered place of business at Tour Manhattan, 5-6 place de l’Iris, 92095 Paris
 In USA, Western Union Business Solutions is a business unit of The Western Union           La Défense Cedex, France and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH          Poland
 Company. Services in the US are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (USA),        (Registration Number 256184t), an Austrian company whose regsistered office is at
 LLC (NMLS ID: 907333; MA MT license #: FT0041) (referred to as “WUBS” or                                                                                                              In Poland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
                                                                                            Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.                                                     Company and provides services in Poland through Western Union International Bank
 “Western Union Business Solutions”). For a complete listing of US state licensing, visit
 http://business.westernunion.com/about/notices/. For additional information about          Germany                                                                                    GmbH, Polish Branch (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
 Western Union Business Solutions USA, LLC visit http://business.westernunion.com/          In Germany, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union            Western Union International Bank GmbH, Polish Branch (KRS No: 0000458059, NIP
 About/Compliance-Legal.                                                                    Company and provides services in Germany through Western Union’s wholly-owned              No: 1080015316), has a registered place of business at Al. Jana Pawla II 29, 00-867
                                                                                            subsidiary Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch (referred to as           Warsaw, Poland, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH
                                                                                            “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).                                             (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
                                                                                            Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch, has a registered place of           Switzerland
 EUROPE                                                                                     business at Solmsstrasse 18, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Germany and is a branch of           In Switzerland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
 Austria                                                                                    Western Union International Bank GmbH (registered in Austria, Registration Number          Company. Services in Switzerland are provided by Rüesch International, LLC (Swiss
 In Austria, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union            256184t, Regsistered Office address: Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria).               branch), with a registered place of business at Werdstrasse 2, P.O. Box 2063, 8021
 Company and provides services in Austria through Western Union’s wholly-owned              Italy                                                                                      Zurich, Switzerland (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
 subsidiary, Western Union International Bank GmbH (referred to as “WUBS” or                In Italy, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Company      Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed herein on
 “Western Union Business Solutions”).                                                       and provides services in Italy through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Western Union        information generally available to the public. Western Union Business Solutions
 Western Union International Bank GmbH is registered in Austria (company number             International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch and Custom House Financial (UK) Limited              makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and specifically
 FN256184t), Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.                                         (which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions).            disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions based on
 Czech Republic                                                                             Custom House Financial (UK) Limited offers the Online Foreign Exchange service             the opinions expressed and information contained herein. Such information and
                                                                                            (online FX); all other services are offered by Western Union International Bank GmbH,      opinions are for general information only and are not intended to present advice with
 In the Czech Republic, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western
                                                                                            Italy branch.                                                                              respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.
 Union Company and provides services in the Czech Republic through Western Union
 International Bank GmbH, organizační složka (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western             Western Union International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch (Registered Office in Rome: via        United Kingdom
 Union Business Solutions”).                                                                Virigilio Maroso 50, 00142 Italy; Fiscal Code and Companies House Registration             Western Union Business Solutions is a business unit of the Western Union Company
 Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered in the             number: 13068651002; Enrolled in the Bank Register held by Bank of Italy (no. 3446)), is   and provides services in the UK through Western Union’s wholly-owned subsidiary,
 Czech Commercial Register held by the Municipal Court in Prague, identification            a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH, a company organised under               Western Union International Bank GmbH, UK Branch (WUIB).
 number 015 55 332, has a registered place of business at Václavské náměstí 62, 110         Austrian Law (Companies House Registration number 256184t; Registered Office:              WUIB (Branch Address: 131 Finsbury Pavement, London, EC2A 1NT) is a branch of
 00 Prague 1, Czech Republic, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank           Schubertring 11, A-1010 Vienna, Austria; Corporate Capital: €12.000.000; Sole              Western Union International Bank GmbH (registered in Austria, company number
 GmbH (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.                  Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and coordination activity of):         FN256184t, VAT Number ATU61347377, with its registered office at Schubertring 11,
                                                                                            Western Union Overseas Limited) and which is a bank registered on a list of banks          1010 Vienna, Austria), which is licensed by the Austrian Financial Market Authority
 Western Union International Bank GmbH is a bank registered on a list of banks
                                                                                            maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Österreichische                     (Finanzmarktaufsicht). WUIB is subject to limited regulation by the UK Financial
 maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Finanzmarktaufsicht).
                                                                                            Finanzmarktaufsicht).                                                                      Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of
 Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered on a list of
 banks and branches of foreign banks maintained by the Czech National Bank.                 Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (Incorporated in England; Company Number:              WUIB’s regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation
                                                                                            04380026; Registered Office: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW; Corporate                  Authority are available from WUIB on request.
                                                                                            Capital £800,001.00; Sole Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and          This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not in
                                                                                            coordination activity of): Western Union Processing Limited), is authorised by the UK      any way create any binding obligations on either party. Relations between you and
                                                                                            Financial Conduct Authority under the payment services regulations 2009 (register          WUIB shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions. No representations,
                                                                                            reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services                                   warranties or conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this presentation.
Don’t let the currency market detract from your bottom line.
  Contact Western Union Business Solutions
  www.business.westernunion.com

  United States                  Canada                     United Kingdom                Australia
  Tel: 1 866 953 6491            Tel: 1 888 987 7612        Toll Free: 0800 096 1229      Tel: +612 8001 2100
  business.westernunion.com      business.westernunion.ca   business.westernunion.co.uk   business.westernunion.com.au

GLOBALOFFICES
You can also read