CURRENCY March 2019 - moving money for better - Western Union ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
MARKET CURRENCY
INSIGHT OUTLOOK
INTO March 2 0 19
GLOBAL
CURRENCIES USD UNITED STATES
CAD CANADA
GBP UNITED KINGDOM
EUR EURO ZONE
CHF SWITZERLAND
PLN POLAND
CZK CZECH REPUBLIC
AUD AUSTRALIA
JPY JAPAN
CNY CHINA
NZD NEW ZEALAND
SGD SINGAPORE
moving money for betterCURRENCY OUTLOOK
UNITED STATES
JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA
February review March outlook
Bouts of dollar weakness last month were largely shallow and If it’s March, it’s all eyes on the Fed. The Fed will issue a policy
short-lived. The dollar kept on elevated ground thanks to U.S. decision and updated interest rate projections that have proven
growth maintaining the upper hand against moderating peers the bread and butter of the U.S. currency over recent years. EUR/USD (12 MTH)
abroad like Europe. Heading into 2019, the dollar was tapped The Fed is all but certain to leave interest rates unchanged at
1.26
by many to underperform as the boost to growth from fiscal a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. What should matter most for the
stimulus fades and the Fed’s series of rate hikes put a brake on dollar is whether the Fed still expects to raise rates before year-
the economy. A crack may have formed in the world’s biggest end. A Fed amenable to higher rates would offer more fuel for 1.21
economy after retail spending staged the biggest drop in nearly dollar appreciation.
a decade in December. America’s economic fog could dissipate if the U.S. and 1.16
Dollar buoyant as growth abroad continued to trail the China soon reach a trade accord that averts the imposition of
world’s No. 1 economy. higher tariffs.
1.11
M A M J J A S O N D J F
The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates anytime Circle the date: March 20, when the Fed issues a policy
soon. Still, U.S. rates rank tops among developed-market decision, new economic projections and Chairman Powell Source: Reuters, 2019
currencies, supporting the dollar. speaks.
U.S. retail sales plunged 1.2% in December, the biggest fall Modest YTD gain: U.S. dollar index up about 0.5%. ECONOMIC DATA
since 2009, suggesting the economy started 2019 with less
horsepower than anticipated.
Base Rate: 2.25-2.50%
GDP: 3.5%
March2019 EVENTS Inflation: 1.8%
Mar 1 Mar 6 Mar 12 Mar 22 Mar 28 Unemployment: 4.0%
ISM Trade CPI Existing GDP Final
Index Balance Home Sales Trade Balance: -$49.3 Bn
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 8 Mar 20 Mar 26
Nonfarm FOMC Consumer
Payrolls Announcement Confidence
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDCAD
JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA
February review
It may be the Year of the Pig, according to China’s Lunar
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
CANADA
March outlook
The Bank of Canada didn’t meet last month but its next decision
calendar. But when it comes to major currencies, 2019 so looms in early March. Canada’s central bank is not expected
far has proven the year of the Canadian dollar. While it’s only to raise rates any time soon, given the elevated level of global USD/CAD (12 MTH)
the first quarter, Canada’s dollar has bounced back after 2018 risks. It remains to be seen whether Britain will exit the EU with
1.37
when it shed 8% against the greenback, its worst performance or without a trade agreement. A no-deal Brexit could potentially
in three years. Canada’s buck has found support from hopes wreak global economic havoc and spark a flight to safety in 1.34
that talks between the U.S. and China might soon yield trade the U.S. dollar. Consequently, area borrowing rates are likely to
peace. Oil flying at 2019 highs above $57 also underpinned the remain stationary at 1.75% at least through the spring. 1.31
commodity-driven dollar. The Canadian dollar’s nascent winning streak could hinge on
1.28
Canada’s export-oriented economy could profit from better U.S.-China trade negotiations.
global trade prospects. The steady outlook for cross-border interest rates might keep 1.25
M A M J J A S O N D J F
Jobs boom: Adding more than 60K jobs in January, Canadian USDCAD confined to a tight range.
hiring proved robust for the second time in 3 months. Canada, so far, is home to the year’s strongest major Source: Reuters, 2019
Strong hiring bolstered the case for the Bank of Canada to
raise lending rates later this year.
currency, with a solid 3.3% gain against the greenback.
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 1.75%
GDP: 2.0%
March2019 EVENTS Inflation: 2.0%
Mar 1 Mar 7 Mar 15 Mar 21 Mar 29 Unemployment: 5.8%
GDP Q4 Trade Manufacturing Wholesale GDP Jan
Balance Sales Trade Trade Balance: -C$2.06 Bn
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 6
Bank of Canada Mar 8 Mar 22
Announcement Employment CPI
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDGBP
GEORGE VESSEY, CURRENCY ANALYST – UNITED KINGDOM
February review
Sterling’s February went from a flop to a pop after GBP/USD suffered
three straight weekly declines before surging to fresh 7-month highs.
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
UNITED KINGDOM
March outlook
With the UK set to officially depart the EU on March 29, Sterling
could experience large swings in either direction as speculators
GBP/EUR scored new 21-month peaks above €1.17 after spending place bets on different scenarios playing out. Leaving the EU with
most of the month gravitating around €1.14. Wild swings in the currency or without a deal remains the critical factor in determining Sterling’s
GBP/USD (12 MTH)
market underlined the sensitivity of Sterling to Brexit-related news. value. PM May still hopes to squeeze the withdrawal agreement 1.44
through Parliament. If she fails, the likely scenario is an extension
PM Theresa May endured another parliamentary defeat on her Brexit
to Article 50, which needs the EU’s consent. This should bolster
plan B in February. Despite the lack of support, PM May travelled 1.39
the pound as it reduces the probability of a no-deal Brexit, but it
to Brussels hoping to unlock the withdrawal agreement and win
doesn’t solve the current impasse and may limit Sterling gains.
changes to the Irish backstop mechanism. Sterling appreciated as 1.34
optimism of a positive outcome increased expectations of a softer GBP/USD will look to target $1.35 short-term and $1.40 long-
departure from the EU. The probability of a delay to Brexit also term if a deal is agreed and passed through Parliament. A delay 1.29
increased with the EU suggesting a 21-month extension to Article of the exit date should boost Sterling but limit gains. On the
50, reducing the chance of a chaotic no-deal Brexit. downside, the low $1.20s and even $1.10 threatens if the UK
1.24
exits without a deal on March 29. M A M J J A S O N D J F
Nominal wage growth increased by 3.4% y/y in the three months to
December, lower than forecast but still at decade highs. Meanwhile, GBP/EUR will likely target €1.17 to €1.20 in the long-term if
Source: Reuters, 2019
unemployment remained at 4%, the lowest level the since 1970s. the UK exits the EU with a deal. An extension to Article 50
Inflation cooled to 1.8% y/y in January, which bodes well for
real wage growth and UK household’s spending power. Robust
could limit gains to €1.15 - €1.16, although slowing growth in
Europe might cause upward momentum. Conversely, a no-deal
scenario could see GBP/EUR plunge below €1.10 and even
ECONOMIC DATA
labour market conditions could catch the Bank of England’s eye,
towards parity.
possibly raising the probability of a UK rate rise this year.
Base Rate: 0.75%
GDP: 1.3%
March2019 EVENTS CPI: 1.8%
Mar 5 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 21 Mar 29 Unemployment: 4.0%
Services Goods Trade Average - Bank of England policy decision GDP Q4
PMI Balance earnings - Retail Sales (Final) Trade Balance: -£12.1 Bn
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 13 Mar 20
PM May to Inflation Mar 21-22 Mar 29
update Commons (CPI) EU Summit UK leave EU
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDCURRENCY OUTLOOK
EURO ZONE
GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA
February review March outlook
The euro’s valuation weakened further in February as market Despite disappointing news flows in Europe, the euro has resisted
watchers, monetary officials and international organizations downside pressures quite well so far, especially against safe
took notice of economic deceleration in the Eurozone. A key haven currencies. However, cracks are appearing, with the $1.12 GBP/EUR (12 MTH)
moment was the release of new European Commission (EC) barrier potentially tested by both EUR/USD and EUR/CHF rates.
As we enter the last month before Brexit, investors will scrutinize 1.17
forecasts which displayed a sharp cut in 2019 growth estimates
for the main Eurozone countries as an array of external factors announcements and gauge the probability of a disorderly exit
scenario. The March ECB meeting may also ignite market jitters as 1.15
keep dampening momentum. Increasingly concerned about
a weaker outlook in Europe, central bankers began hinting at officials could use a potential significant cut in outlook forecasts as
an excuse to announce new accommodative measures. Markets 1.13
action to boost activity.
will also keep an eye of trade tensions between China and US in
Germany’s economy did not grow in Q4 2018, and Italy case no deal, or any extension of truce period, is agreed by March 1. 1.11
technically entered a recession after registering a contraction
The ECB is likely to revise down its December growth and
of activity for a second quarter in a row. 1.09
inflation forecasts. Markets are curious whether new easing M A M J J A S O N D J F
EC cut the Eurozone’s growth outlook for 2019 by -0.6% steps will be announced at that time.
Source: Reuters, 2019
compared it’s November forecast of 1.9% to 1.3%. Some officials argued for the launch of a new long-term
EUR/USD broke its $1.13 support several times and fell to a
3-month low of $1.1231 before bouncing back at the end of
cheap loan program (TLTRO) for European banks to
encourage lending to private companies and households.
ECONOMIC DATA
the month. A hard Brexit scenario or a resumption of trade tensions
would strengthen investor concern about Europe’s outlook. Policy Rate: 0.0%
Safe haven assets would there be preferred to euro.
Annual GDP: 1.2%
March2019 EVENTS Annual Inflation: 1.4%
Mar 1 Mar 5 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Unemployment: 7.9%
Flash Retail Moody’s report Flash PMI Brexit
inflation Sales on Italy surveys Trade Balance: €17.0 Bn
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 1 Mar 7
Unemployment ECB
rate meeting
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDCHF
ADAM MA, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – UNITED KINGDOM
February review
February was lacklustre for the Swiss Franc with the currency
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
SWITZERLAND
March outlook
The SNB will meet and as mentioned, a dovish tone from the
remaining relatively flat against its G10 peers. Progress in trade ECB could influence the SNB’s guidance. Traders will look to
negotiations between the US and China has seen a decline retail sales and CPI data released during the first week of the GBP/CHF (12 MTH)
in demand for safe haven currencies, which saw the Franc month. Bullish Swiss Franc traders will be hoping CPI does not
1.39
weaken against the euro. Economic data yielded no positive fall further, otherwise CHF may be at risk of further weakness.
returns for the Swiss nation with inflation m/m remaining at However, risk appetite surrounding global tensions will continue 1.35
18-month lows and Swiss GDP expected to fall. For a while to drive sentiment surrounding the Franc, especially with Brexit
the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has indicated it will follow the debates heading towards a climax. An off-set risk sentiment 1.31
European Central Bank (ECB) in regard to monetary policy. The could drive the Swiss Franc higher.
ECB has slashed the growth forecast for the bloc which will GBP/CHF trades at the higher end of the range however if
1.27
most likely delay any possible rate hike forecasted for this year, Sterling gets sold and the Franc gets bought the resulting
which in turn will delay any tightening from the SNB. 1.23
move could be severe resulting in a move back to the M A M J J A S O N D J F
The 12th of February saw a mini ‘flash crash’ hit the franc SFr1.20 mark.
Source: Reuters, 2019
due to the lack of liquidity during Asian trading hours. EUR/CHF is mid-range at the moment but could see a move
EUR/CHF rallied to SFr1.14 but found some resistance
retreating immediately.
back to the lower levels of SFR1.12 if a safe haven buying
increases demand for the currency.
ECONOMIC DATA
GBP/CHF trades above the SFr1.30 mark after positive
sentiment pushed the pound higher. Base Rate: -0.75%
Annual GDP: 2.4% (Q3)
March2019 EVENTS Annual CPI: 0.3% (Jan)
Mar 1 Mar 7 Mar 21 Unemployment: 2.4% (Jan)
Retail Unemployment SNH Monetary Policy
Sales Rate Assessment Trade Balance: CHF 3.04 Bn (Jan)
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 5
CPI
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDPLN
GEORGE VESSEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – UNITED KINGDOM
February review
The Polish Zloty suffered its worst monthly performance
against the US Dollar since October last year. Concerns about
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
POLAND
March outlook
Key risk events for the Polish Zloty this month include the
National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) policy meeting on March
slowing global growth continued to rock emerging markets, and 06. Though interest rates are expected to remain unchanged USD/PLN (12 MTH)
the USD/PLN lifted over 4% during February as demand for the at 1.5%, a dovish tilt might be on the horizon considering
dollar swelled amid souring risk sentiment. Appetite to buy the economic growth slowed in the final quarter of the year and 3.90
Zloty also dwindled after fourth quarter GDP growth slowed inflation continues to slide. The decline in the Zloty against its
to 4.9% from 5.1% y/y, which had previously held throughout major counterparts is telling of investor sentiment. If sentiment
3.70
2018. Inflation came in at 0.9%, down from 1.1% the previous continues to skew negatively, and global growth remains
month and continued its steady decline since August, reducing lackluster, then March could prove to be another tough month
the chance of a shift in monetary policy from the current for the Zloty. 3.50
1.5% mark. The overriding factor weighing on PLN strength is The European Central Bank (ECB) may prove more pivotal
Poland’s dependence on growth in the Eurozone. to the Zloty should the message err on the side of caution
3.30
USD/PLN jumped to May 2017 highs before bumping into amidst growth concerns. This could see EUR/PLN climb M A M J J A S O N D J F
resistance around the zł3.84 level, similar to last year’s price action. further away from its recent trading range and USD/PLN
Source: Reuters, 2019
The Zloty suffered four straight weekly losses against the Euro, could extend towards new 21-month highs.
flirting with the key zł4.34 handle where heavy resistance lies.
Some economic data from Poland did surprise to the upside
Focus remains pinned on US-China trade relations and global
growth indicators to help gauge any directional conviction for
ECONOMIC DATA
with industrial output rising 6.1%, well above the forecast emerging currencies like the PLN.
consensus of 3.9% y/y. Base Rate: 1.5%
Annual GDP: 4.9%
March2019 EVENTS Annual Inflation: 0.9%
Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 20 Mar 25 Unemployment: 5.8%
Markit Inflation Industrial Unemployment
Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Output
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 6 Mar 21 Mar 29
Interest Rate Retail Inflation
Decision Sales (March)
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDCZK
SHANE SPARKS, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – UNITED KINGDOM
February review
The Czech Krona continued its volatile start to the year against
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
CZECH REPUBLIC
March outlook
Brexit is likely to grip the attention of FX markets throughout the
the euro, US Dollar and Sterling, with over 1% swings in month of March and will be a heavy influence on GBP/CZK. The
February. The Krona is now 5% weaker against Sterling since CNB has already raised concerns over the impact of a disorderly USD/CZK (12 MTH)
its strongest point of the year with a move from Kč 28.2 to Brexit and those traders with bets on the CNB raising rates in
23.5
Kč29.60. The Krona did find strength in the latter part of the the longer term will be watching closely. On the 28th of March,
month against the dollar and euro despite the Czech National the central bank will meet again to discuss monetary policy with 22.8
Bank (CNB) holding interest rates. CZK/USD recovered 1.7% a statement to be released following the meeting. On the 5th of
22.1
while CZK/EUR retraced a little over 1%. April, full meeting minutes will be released.
21.4
The CNB held interest rates on the 7th of February, however, If the crown does suffer further selling bias this month and
the meeting minutes on the 15th revealed that board the UK secures a Brexit deal GBP/CZK could take another run 20.7
members Vojtech Benda and Ales Michl voted in favour of an towards the key Kč30.00 level.
20.0
interest rate hike helping the Krona to extend its gains. CZK/USD finds its self only 0.5% off the opening rate of the
M A M J J A S O N D J F
The central bank did voice concerns on a disorderly Brexit year after the Krona recovered heavily after weakening in Source: Reuters, 2019
and the impact this could have on monetary policy. both January and February. An orderly Brexit could lift some
concerns of the CNB and allow the Krona to move back
towards the high of the year $22.139
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 1.75%
Annual GDP: 2.9%
March2019 EVENTS Annual CPI: 2.5%
Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 14 Mar 28 Unemployment: 3.3%
Markit Unemployment Retail CNB
Manufacturing PMI Rate Sales meeting Trade Balance: Kč20 M
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 11
CPI
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDAUD
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
February review
The Australian dollar remained under pressure in February as
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
AUSTRALIA
March outlook
The Aussie ended the month on a weaker footing as a
a more cautious update from the Reserve Bank of Australia slowdown in global trade and weaker Chinese data pressured
weighed on the currency. the currency AUD/USD (12 MTH)
The RBA said: “Over the past year, the next-move-is-up The bond market continues to signal an interest rate cut is 0.80
scenarios were more likely than the next-move-is-down more likely with one cut now fully priced in by the end of
scenarios. Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly the year. 0.77
balanced.” The focus on the slowdown in China remains critical
0.74
This message – which signalled the central bank was after key manufacturing activity numbers signaled
considering a local rate cut – weighed on the local currency. growing negativity. 0.71
The RBA also downgraded its forecast for GDP growth December-quarter economic growth figures, due 6 March,
and inflation. will be closely watched. 0.68
M A M J J A S O N D J F
For the 2018-19 financial year, GDP growth was downgraded
Source: Reuters, 2019
from 3.25% to 2.50% while the inflation forecast was
downgraded from 2.00% to 1.25%.
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 1.50%
GDP: 2.8%
March2019 EVENTS CPI: 1.9%
Mar 5 Mar 7 Mar 19 Unemployment: 5.0%
RBA Trade RBA
Decision Balance Minutes Trade Balance: 3.6 Bn (AUD)
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 7
Mar 6 Retail Mar 21
GDP Sales Employment
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDJPY
GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA
February review
The Japanese yen was quiet last month, wavering in a narrow
price range against its main peers. Market sentiment swung
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
JAPAN
March outlook
Once again, trade talks between China and the United States will
be a hot topic this month. Even though recent reports suggested
between relief over trade issues and concern about a weaker “productive advancements” in talks (Cf. Donald Trump), hurdles GBP/JPY (12 MTH)
global economic outlook. While global market volatility smoother remain and could ruin efforts to conclude a deal. A resurgence
155
than recent months, partly due to renewed hopes of a trade deal of trade tensions would not only shake financial markets but also
between China and US, yen valuation tilted to the downside. weaken an already fragile global economy. From now on domestic
150
However, an increasing number of central bankers have adopted fundamentals will be closely watched given the Japanese central
a dovish tone in their official communication reminding investors bank looks undeterred to ease further monetary conditions in support
145
of shaky economic conditions. Hence, market participants are of the economy. Brexit is scheduled to become reality in late March,
holding long yen positions in their portfolio in case things go sour. which could cause volatility for the Yen against the euro and pound. 140
Japan avoided a recession as activity grew modestly in Q4 by USD/JPY will be especially sensitive to trade talks between
0.3%. However, the sharp contraction of exports in January Beijing and Washington. A trade deal could cause the 135
M A M J J A S O N D J F
and muted pressures on prices depict a downgraded outlook. exchange rate to break the ¥111 ceiling.
Source: Reuters, 2019
The Bank of Japan governor opened the door to new stimulus Monetary divergences could be a key driver for EUR/JPY in
to reach inflation forecasts.
The Japanese yen moved sideways in a narrow range against
March as concerns about new easing measures in Europe
could be an occasion to see the rate returning below ¥124. ECONOMIC DATA
euro (¥124-¥126), greenback (¥109-¥111) and to a lesser GBP/JPY ended February strongly as markets turned
extent against UK pound (¥141-¥145). optimistic about avoiding a hard Brexit scenario. That rally Policy Rate: -0.1%
could intensify or reverse depending the late march outcome.
Annual GDP: 0.0%
March2019 EVENTS Annual CPI: 0.3%
Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 22 Unemployment: 2.5%
Deadline of the Revised Q4 BOJ rating Inflation
China/US trade truce 2018 GDP decision Trade Balance: -¥55.3 Bn
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 18 Mar 26
Trade Summary of opinions
Balance of BOJ March meeting
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDCNY
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
February review
The Chinese yuan remained strong in February with the
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
CHINA
March outlook
The US and China trade environment will remain critical with a
currency reaching the highest level versus the US dollar since particular focus on how any resolution impacts the CNY.
July last year. The US government remained committed to demanding greater
USD/CNY (12 MTH)
A broadening improvement in global sentiment has boosted stability in the yuan. 7.0
Asian currencies and the Chinese yuan has benefited. The US government’s demand to keep the CNY stable
6.8
Local economic news slowed in February with the Chinese means any move above 7.00 now seems unlikely in USDCNY.
New Year impacting on the data flow. Thus, substantial CNY weakness seems less likely.
6.6
Trade remained pressured with imports down 10% Chinese economic data has seen key activity measure
in January. weakened. This month, local data will continue to be 6.4
closely watched.
6.2
M A M J J A S O N D J F
Source: Reuters, 2019
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 4.35%
GDP: 6.4%
March2019 EVENTS CPI: 1.7%
Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 14 Unemployment: 3.7%
Manufacturing Trade Industrial
PMI Balance Production Trade Balance: $39.1 Bn (USD)
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 14
Mar 9 Retail
CPI Sales
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDNZD
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
February review
The New Zealand dollar traded in a broad range in February as
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
NEW ZEALAND
March outlook
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by
risk sentiment remained positive while the Reserve Bank of neglecting to become more negative on the global economic
New Zealand stayed relatively upbeat. picture or signalling a potential shift in policy. NZD/USD (12 MTH)
The NZDUSD remained near eight-month highs but muted local The RBNZ made a clear policy shift in early 2018 so the central 0.75
data meant the currency was unable to push higher. bank was unable to maintain its view that the next direction for
NZ economic data was mostly characterised as weaker rates was evenly balanced. 0.72
with employment growing less than expected as the The NZD might be supported by a positive resolution to the
0.69
unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.3%. US-China trade story. On the other hand, a turn lower in US
Dairy prices remained stronger with this key metric equities is likely to be negative for the kiwi. 0.66
continuing the rebound seen since December. December-quarter economic growth figures, due 21 March,
will be critical this month. 0.63
M A M J J A S O N D J F
Looking further forward, the NZD will be next driven by
Source: Reuters, 2019
the April inflation report. Most recently, a slightly better
than expected December-quarter inflation report boosted
the NZD.
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 1.75%
GDP: 2.6%
March2019 EVENTS CPI: 1.9%
Mar 6 Mar 20 Mar 27 Unemployment: 4.3%
Dairy Dairy RBNZ
Prices Prices Trade Balance: -$861 M (NZD)
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 19 Mar 27
Consumer Mar 21 Trade
Sentiment GDP Balance
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDSGD
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
February review
The Singapore dollar was mostly stronger in February as an
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
SINGAPORE
March outlook
The SGD remains tied to expectations around the US‑China
improvement in global risk appetite saw sharemarkets and trade story and the potential for a global slowdown in
commodities all higher. economic growth. USD/SGD (12 MTH)
The key USDSGD has slipped lower as the US Federal Reserve The sudden slowdown in Chinese trade numbers, seen over the 1.39
continued to signal caution. last two months, will be critical for the SGD.
A mixed picture from local data saw retail sales plunge but Inflation remains elevated and will continue to be a concern 1.36
inflation unexpectedly remained above expectations. for the Monetary Authority of Singapore ahead of next
The SGD’s strength saw it climb to 18-month highs versus month’s policy meeting.
1.33
the euro and near nine-month highs against the US dollar. The Singapore economy, largely dependent on trade, is likely
to be impacted by the final result of the US-China trade talks.
1.30
M A M J J A S O N D J F
Source: Reuters, 2019
ECONOMIC DATA
SIBOR: 1.89%
GDP: 1.9%
March2019 EVENTS CPI: 1.9%
Mar 5 Mar 12 Mar 18 Mar 25 Unemployment: 2.1%
Manufacturing Retail Exports CPI
PMI Sales Trade Balance: $2.4 Bn (SGD)
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF PLN CZK AUD JPY CNY NZD SGDDISCLAIMERS
Western Union Business Solutions (WUBS) has based the opinions expressed in this ASIA PACIFIC New Zealand
communication on information generally available to the public. Western Union Australia Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. In
Business Solutions makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and New Zealand, Western Union Business Solutions (Australia) Pty Ltd, NZ branch
specifically disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions In Australia, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company. In Australia, Western Union Business Solutions (Australia) Pty Limited ABN (company number 3527631 and FSP 168204) (“WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial
based on the opinions expressed and information contained in this communication. products (if any) referred to in this communication. A Product Disclosure Statement is
Such information and opinions are for general information purposes only and are not 24 150 129 749 and AFSL 404092 (“WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial products (if
any) referred to in this communication. available for each of the financial products that WUBS issues and can be obtained by
intended to present advice with respect to matters reviewed and commented upon. visiting http://business.westernunion.co.nz/about/compliance/.
This communication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any A Product Disclosure Statement is available for each of the financial products that
WUBS issues (if any) and can be obtained by visiting our compliance and legal web Any advice provide in this communication is class (general) advice only and does not
person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, take account of your financial situation, objectives and/or needs. Because of this,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use page. Unless we expressly state otherwise any information given by WUBS in relation
to financial products will be factual information only and does not take account of your before you act on it (including making any decisions and/or trading) you should
would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject WUBS or its affiliates consider its appropriateness having regard to your own objectives, financial situation
to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. financial situation, objectives or needs. Because of this, before you act on it (including
making any decision and/or trading) you should consider its appropriateness having and/or needs. WUBS recommends that you seek personalised (personal) financial
This communication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does regard to your own objectives, financial situations and/or needs. advice from an authorised financial adviser.
not in any way create any binding obligations on either party. Relations between you
and WUBS shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions provided to you Before you decide to acquire a financial product from WUBS you should read and Singapore
before you undertake any transaction with WUBS. No representations, warranties or consider the relevant product disclosure statement.
In Singapore, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this communication. Hong Kong Company. Depending on the nature and scope of the services, services in Singapore
© 2019 Western Union Holdings Inc. All rights reserved. In Hong Kong, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS
Company. Services in Hong Kong are provided by Western Union Business Solutions Singapore”) and/or WUBS Financial Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS FS
(Hong Kong) Limited (company number 1474270 and CE number BGY438) (“WUBS”). Singapore”) (collectively referred to as “WUBS”).
WUBS is a licensed money service operator under the Anti-Money Laundering and WUBS FS Singapore is a capital markets services licence holder for leveraged foreign
Counter-Terrorist Financing (Financial Institutions) Ordinance (Chapter 615, the Laws exchange trading, and an exempt financial adviser for advising others, either directly
of Hong Kong). WUBS is also licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission in or indirectly through publications or writings, and whether in electronic, print or other
Hong Kong to conduct Type 3 (leveraged foreign exchange trading) regulated activity. form, concerning contracts or arrangements for the purposes of foreign exchange
Risk Disclosure Statements trading and leveraged foreign exchange trading (other than advising others by issuing
or promulgating research analyses or research reports, whether in electronic, print or
1. The risk of loss in leveraged foreign exchange trading can be substantial. You may other form, concerning any investment product and advising on corporate finance
sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds. Placing contingent orders, such within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap 289 (“SFA”).
as “stop loss” or “stop limit” orders will not necessarily limit losses to the intended
amounts. Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. You may WUBS Singapore is a remittances licence holder. All payment and remittance
be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds. If the required services referred to in this communication are offered under WUBS Singapore’s
funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated. Remittance Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). WUBS
You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account. You should therefore Singapore’s service does not include any service under the Payment Systems
carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in light of your own financial (Oversight) Act 2006.
position and investment objectives. WUBS is not licensed, registered or authorised, or hold themselves out to be
2. Client assets received or held by WUBS or a WUBS group company outside licensed, registered or authorised to conduct any regulated activities under the SFA,
Hong Kong are subject to the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant financial advisory services under the Financial Advisers Act, Cap 110, money
overseas jurisdiction which may be different from the Securities and Futures changing business and remittance business under the Money-Changing and
Ordinance (Cap. 571) and the rules made thereunder. Consequently, such client assets Remittance Business Act, Cap 187, and any other financial services or activities
may not enjoy the same protection as that conferred on client assets received or held subject to regulatory supervisions by the MAS or any other authority in Singapore,
in Hong Kong. save in respect of the specific activities described above for which each entity holds
a licence or an exemption to conduct such specific activities.DISCLAIMERS
NORTH AMERICA France Malta
Canada In France, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Western Union Business Solutions is a business unit of The Western Union Company.
In Canada, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company and provides services in France through its wholly-owned subsidiary Services in Malta are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Malta) Limited, a
Company. Services in Canada are provided by Custom House ULC, a company within Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch, (referred to as “WUBS” or limited company registered in Malta (Company Number C22339) with its registered office
the Western Union Business Solutions division. “Western Union Business Solutions”). at W Business Centre, Level 5, Triq Dun Karm, Birkirkara By-Pass, Birkirkara, BKR 9033,
Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch (RCS Nanterre 750 938 094) Malta and which is licensed and regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority to
USA undertake the business of financial services in terms of the Financial Institutions Act.
has a registered place of business at Tour Manhattan, 5-6 place de l’Iris, 92095 Paris
In USA, Western Union Business Solutions is a business unit of The Western Union La Défense Cedex, France and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH Poland
Company. Services in the US are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (USA), (Registration Number 256184t), an Austrian company whose regsistered office is at
LLC (NMLS ID: 907333; MA MT license #: FT0041) (referred to as “WUBS” or In Poland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria. Company and provides services in Poland through Western Union International Bank
“Western Union Business Solutions”). For a complete listing of US state licensing, visit
http://business.westernunion.com/about/notices/. For additional information about Germany GmbH, Polish Branch (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
Western Union Business Solutions USA, LLC visit http://business.westernunion.com/ In Germany, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Western Union International Bank GmbH, Polish Branch (KRS No: 0000458059, NIP
About/Compliance-Legal. Company and provides services in Germany through Western Union’s wholly-owned No: 1080015316), has a registered place of business at Al. Jana Pawla II 29, 00-867
subsidiary Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch (referred to as Warsaw, Poland, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH
“WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”). (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch, has a registered place of Switzerland
EUROPE business at Solmsstrasse 18, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Germany and is a branch of In Switzerland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Austria Western Union International Bank GmbH (registered in Austria, Registration Number Company. Services in Switzerland are provided by Rüesch International, LLC (Swiss
In Austria, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union 256184t, Regsistered Office address: Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria). branch), with a registered place of business at Werdstrasse 2, P.O. Box 2063, 8021
Company and provides services in Austria through Western Union’s wholly-owned Italy Zurich, Switzerland (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
subsidiary, Western Union International Bank GmbH (referred to as “WUBS” or In Italy, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Company Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed herein on
“Western Union Business Solutions”). and provides services in Italy through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Western Union information generally available to the public. Western Union Business Solutions
Western Union International Bank GmbH is registered in Austria (company number International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch and Custom House Financial (UK) Limited makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and specifically
FN256184t), Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria. (which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions). disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions based on
Czech Republic Custom House Financial (UK) Limited offers the Online Foreign Exchange service the opinions expressed and information contained herein. Such information and
(online FX); all other services are offered by Western Union International Bank GmbH, opinions are for general information only and are not intended to present advice with
In the Czech Republic, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western
Italy branch. respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.
Union Company and provides services in the Czech Republic through Western Union
International Bank GmbH, organizační složka (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Western Union International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch (Registered Office in Rome: via United Kingdom
Union Business Solutions”). Virigilio Maroso 50, 00142 Italy; Fiscal Code and Companies House Registration Western Union Business Solutions is a business unit of the Western Union Company
Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered in the number: 13068651002; Enrolled in the Bank Register held by Bank of Italy (no. 3446)), is and provides services in the UK through Western Union’s wholly-owned subsidiary,
Czech Commercial Register held by the Municipal Court in Prague, identification a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH, a company organised under Western Union International Bank GmbH, UK Branch (WUIB).
number 015 55 332, has a registered place of business at Václavské náměstí 62, 110 Austrian Law (Companies House Registration number 256184t; Registered Office: WUIB (Branch Address: 131 Finsbury Pavement, London, EC2A 1NT) is a branch of
00 Prague 1, Czech Republic, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank Schubertring 11, A-1010 Vienna, Austria; Corporate Capital: €12.000.000; Sole Western Union International Bank GmbH (registered in Austria, company number
GmbH (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria. Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and coordination activity of): FN256184t, VAT Number ATU61347377, with its registered office at Schubertring 11,
Western Union Overseas Limited) and which is a bank registered on a list of banks 1010 Vienna, Austria), which is licensed by the Austrian Financial Market Authority
Western Union International Bank GmbH is a bank registered on a list of banks
maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Österreichische (Finanzmarktaufsicht). WUIB is subject to limited regulation by the UK Financial
maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Finanzmarktaufsicht).
Finanzmarktaufsicht). Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of
Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered on a list of
banks and branches of foreign banks maintained by the Czech National Bank. Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (Incorporated in England; Company Number: WUIB’s regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation
04380026; Registered Office: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW; Corporate Authority are available from WUIB on request.
Capital £800,001.00; Sole Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not in
coordination activity of): Western Union Processing Limited), is authorised by the UK any way create any binding obligations on either party. Relations between you and
Financial Conduct Authority under the payment services regulations 2009 (register WUIB shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions. No representations,
reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services warranties or conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this presentation.Don’t let the currency market detract from your bottom line. Contact Western Union Business Solutions www.business.westernunion.com United States Canada United Kingdom Australia Tel: 1 866 953 6491 Tel: 1 888 987 7612 Toll Free: 0800 096 1229 Tel: +612 8001 2100 business.westernunion.com business.westernunion.ca business.westernunion.co.uk business.westernunion.com.au GLOBALOFFICES
You can also read
