CURRENCY OUTLOOK AUGUST 2017 - moving money for better - Western Union ...

 
CURRENCY OUTLOOK AUGUST 2017 - moving money for better - Western Union ...
MARKET       CURRENCY
INSIGHT      OUTLOOK
INTO         AUGUST 2017
GLOBAL
CURRENCIES   USD UNITED STATES
             CAD CANADA
             GBP UNITED KINGDOM
             EUR EURO ZONE
             CHF SWITZERLAND
             PLN POLAND
             CZK CZECH REPUBLIC
             AUD AUSTRALIA
             JPY JAPAN
             CNY CHINA
             NZD NEW ZEALAND
             SGD SINGAPORE
             moving money for better
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                            UNITED STATES
  JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA

  July review                                                           August risk events and key themes
  Bears were stalking the U.S. currency in July when it sank            Down about 4% over the past month and 8% since the
  to one-year lows overall and to its weakest in two years              beginning of the year, is a bottom in sight for the U.S. currency?
  against the euro. The dollar index bled about 4% in value as          The usual cast of characters will be key to assessing the dollar’s    EUR/USD (12 MTH)
  political setbacks in Washington obscured President Trump’s           coming prospects. For the dollar to form a tentative bottom,
  economy‑positive agenda, and U.S. inflation drifted further           the market will want to see better data on the U.S. economy           1.18

  below the Federal Reserve’s 2% benchmark, dampening                   and see Washington advance meaningful legislation. Any scope
  chances of another rate hike this year.                               for dollar strength could be a challenge if overseas growth           1.13
  Meanwhile, in Europe the region’s recovery rolled on, bolstering      continues to improve and offer latitude for central banks to
  expectations for the ECB to reduce stimulus in the months ahead.      normalize policy.
                                                                                                                                              1.08
  „„ Nice job: America netted 222K jobs in June, the most in            „„ Events to watch: U.S. inflation and jobs data – first week
     4 months.                                                             of August.
                                                                                                                                              1.03
                                                                        „„ U.S. politics: White House headline risk also key.                     A    S   O    N     D   J   F   M   A     M       J      J
  „„ Going the wrong way: Core inflation slowed a tick to 1.4%,
     drifting further below the Fed’s 2% target.                        „„ Global risks: Geopolitical risks, such as North Korea, could                                                   Source: Reuters, 2017
                                                                           support the world’s reserve currency.
  „„ Barely alive: Health care reform remained elusive in
     Washington, stalling the president’s broader agenda.                                                                                     ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                      „„ Base Rate:                   1.00 - 1.25%
                                                                                                                                                      „„ Annual GDP:                             1.4%
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                   „„ Annual Inflation:                       1.4%

      Aug 1        Aug 4                         Aug 11           Aug 15                                 Aug 24-26                                    „„ Unemployment:                           4.4%
      Personal     Nonfarm                       CPI              Retail                                 Fed Symposium
                                                                                                                                                      „„ Trade Balance:                    -$46.5bln
      spending     payrolls                                       sales                                  Jackson Hole, Wy

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                                      Aug 16                                             Aug 30
      Aug 1        Aug 4                                              FOMC                                               Q2 GDP
      Inflation    Unemployment                                       minutes                                            revision

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CAD
  JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA

  July review
                                                          CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                          CANADA

  Canada’s dollar turned in a stellar July when it marched to
  two-year highs against its embattled U.S. counterpart. Canada’s
                                                                       August risk events and key themes
                                                                       Expectations for U.S.-Canada interest rate policy should be a key
                                                                       driver of USDCAD in the months ahead. If Canada can maintain
  currency found sturdy pillars in the nation’s economy which          solid economic momentum, it might just raise borrowing rates         USD/CAD (12 MTH)
  performed solidly over the first half of 2017, resulting in the      before the Federal Reserve, a scenario that could add octane to
  Bank of Canada’s first interest rate hike since 2010. The BOC in     USDCAD’s selloff. And if Canada moves before the Fed, it would       1.40

  mid‑July raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.            put cross-border interest rate policy on nearly level ground,
                                                                                                                                            1.36
  The weaker U.S. dollar, meanwhile, was a boon for oil markets,       potentially slowing investment outflows to the U.S. to the
  giving commodity-backed currencies an added boost.                   benefit of the Canadian dollar.                                      1.32

  „„ Canada’s economy found tailwinds in robust consumer               „„ The BOC doesn’t meet again until September 6.
                                                                                                                                            1.28
     spending and low unemployment.                                    „„ Next Fed meeting set for September 20.
  „„ The BOC raised rates on July 12, reversing one of its two         „„ Current odds: BOC 33% likely to hike in Sept, compared to a       1.24
                                                                                                                                                A    S   O    N     D    J   F   M   A     M       J      J
     rate cuts in 2015.                                                   less than 10% chance for the Fed.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Reuters, 2017
  „„ A fragile trade sector and low inflation remain weak spots in
     the otherwise sturdy Canadian economy.
                                                                                                                                            ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                    „„ Base Rate:                             0.75%
                                                                                                                                                    „„ Annual GDP:                              3.7%
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                 „„ Annual Inflation:                        1.0%

                   Aug 4                 Aug 9                               Aug 18           Aug 22                   Aug 30                       „„ Unemployment:                            6.5%
                   Trade                 Housing                             CPI              Retail                   Current
                                                                                                                                                    „„ Trade Balance:                    -C$1.09bln
                   Balance               Starts                                               Sales                    account

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

                   Aug 4                                                                                                   Aug 31
                   Employment                                                                                              Q2 GDP

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GBP
  NAWAZ ALI, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – UNITED KINGDOM

  July review
                                                          CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                          UNITED KINGDOM

  A few different factors caused a re-pricing of the Sterling/US
  Dollar in July, allowing the exchange rate to eventually set a
                                                                      August risk events and key themes
                                                                      Although the picture has brightened for Sterling against the US dollar,
                                                                      its performance against the euro is becoming a grave concern for UK
  9½-month high of $1.3125 (July 18). This peak capped a 3.9%         importers. On July 20, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy         GBP/USD (12 MTH)
  extension above the $1.2600 2017 average, and two of the            decision caused quite a market reaction, with sterling/euro sinking
  themes behind this re-pricing were as follows:                      by 1.4% that day to a 9-month low near €1.11. Moving forward into          1.36

  „„ Remarks around a potential UK interest rate rise from some       August, here are potentially some of the big trading points ahead:
                                                                                                                                                 1.32
     members of the Bank of England (BOE), including Governor         „„ August 03: although likely to stay unchanged, the BOE will
     Mark Carney, who issued his comments on June 28.                    debate whether to raise interest rates to curb high inflation.          1.28

  „„ Much weaker-than-expected US inflation data on July 14 which        In June, three out of eight BOE members unsuccessfully
                                                                         called for a rate hike.                                                 1.24
     caused traders to reverse bets on the US Federal Reserve
     raising interest rates at its meeting in September 2017.         „„ August 28: the UK and the EU will try for a third time to reach         1.20
                                                                         an agreement on Britain’s final divorce bill and overseas workers’          A    S   O   N      D    J   F   M   A     M       J      J
                                                                         rights. Should a deal clear this first Brexit hurdle, Sterling would                                                 Source: Reuters, 2017
                                                                         probably rally. But what if negotiations go nowhere yet again?
                                                                      „„ GBP/EUR predictions: according to July’s Reuters FX Poll,
                                                                         about 68% of year-end predictions range from €1.18 down to
                                                                                                                                                 ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                         €1.09. However, on current form, GBP/EUR could fall to €1.10
                                                                         or below within weeks.                                                          „„ Base Rate:                             0.25%
                                                                                                                                                         „„ Annual GDP:                              2.0%
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                      „„ Annual CPI:                              2.6%

      Aug 1                                  Aug 10                  Aug 16                              Aug 24-26                                       „„ Unemployment:                            4.5%
      UK Manufacturing                       UK Manufacturing        UK Unemployment                     US Jackson Hole
                                                                                                                                                         „„ Trade Balance:                £-11.86 bln
      PMI Survey                             Output                  Data                                Economic Symposium

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
              Aug 3                                      Aug 15           Aug 17                                           Aug 28
              - UK Services PMI Survey               UK Inflation         UK Retail                                        3rd Round Brexit
              - BoE Interest Rate Decision                  Data          Sales Data                                       Negotiations
              - BoE Inflation Report

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CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                             EURO ZONE
  GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA

  July review                                                                 August risk events and key themes
  The euro remained strong in July as bullish investors, awaiting             The QE tapering story should remain the key driver of euro volatility
  QE tapering signals from European monetary officials, continued             during the second half of the summer, given that Italian risks
  to increase their ‘long euro’ positions. Nevertheless, some profit          related to its banks and a snap election, have significantly eased.      GBP/EUR (12 MTH)
  taking was witnessed ahead of the ECB’s July meeting as investors           Furthermore, upcoming German elections expected in September
  turned nervous. The persistent lack of traction in eurozone inflation       don’t look to be a big deal for investors. The main question is when     1.21
  growth, and recent strengthening of the euro suggested a dovish             will the ECB taper? A substantial correction lower in the euro
  stance from ECB President Mario Draghi. However, following the              is possible, given investors are heavily invested in a major ECB         1.18
  meeting he appeared unfazed by this trend and suggested little              announcement in September. Therefore, the downside euro potential
  reluctance within the ECB to start QE tapering talks. Mr. Draghi            in coming months might be much bigger if the ECB stays muted.            1.15
  said these talks will start this autumn. By offering no fodder to           „„ A Reuters survey indicates that almost 50% of economists
  euro bears, and some encouragement to euro bulls to continue                                                                                         1.12
                                                                                 expect the ECB will announce some tapering of its assets
  backing their bets on future ECB tapering, Draghi triggered                    purchases in September.
  another substantial rally of the euro against most of its peers.                                                                                     1.09
                                                                                                                                                           A    S    O   N       D    J   F   M    A     M       J      J
                                                                              „„ The Walls Street Journal reported that Draghi could give a
  „„ Euro jumped by 1.4% and 1.0% against GBP and USD                            hint of the ECB’s September agenda during the economic                                                                Source: Reuters, 2017
     respectively on July 20 following the press conference of                   symposium in Jackson Hole, US in late August.
     ECB President Mario Draghi.
  „„ EUR/USD climbed near a 2-year peak of $1.1677 the day after
                                                                              „„ Inflation momentum in the eurozone should remain highly
                                                                                 scrutinized by central bankers.
                                                                                                                                                       ECONOMIC DATA
     the ECB meeting.
                                                                              „„ First reforms in France under Macron and German election
                                                                                                                                                               „„ Policy rate:                                0.0%
                                                                                 campaign will be of interest.
                                                                                                                                                               „„ GDP:                        1.9% (annualized)
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                            „„ Inflation:                  1.3% (annualized)

      Aug 1                                                      Aug 14                                         Aug 24-26                                      „„ Unemployment:                               9.3%
      Flash                                                      Industrial                                     US Jackson Hole
                                                                                                                                                               „„ Trade Balance:                        €21.4 Bln
      Q2 GDP                                                     production                                     Economic Symposium

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
               Aug 3                                                       Aug 16                          Aug 23                    Aug 31
               Retail                                                      Revised                         Flash                 - Flash CPI
               Sales                                                       Q2 GDP                          PMI          - Unemployment rate

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CHF
  GEORGE VESSEY, CURRENCY ANALYST – UK

  July review
  The Swiss Franc experienced high volatility in July with
  USD/CHF falling to one-year lows near 0.94 as risk averse
                                                           CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                           SWITZERLAND
                                                                            August risk events and key themes
                                                                            Given its global status as a safe haven, CHF typically experiences
                                                                            upward pressure in times of uncertainty. With the Trump-Russia
                                                                            investigation heating up and Brexit negotiations continuing
  sentiment boosted demand for the franc. Although strong                                                                                            GBP/CHF (12 MTH)
  against the US Dollar, over the course of the month EUR/CHF               towards the end of August, investors may increase demand for
  witnessed a steady rise towards one-year highs of 1.11, pushed            the franc. On the contrary, following the ECB meeting last month         1.31
  higher by increasing speculation about the European Central               and the rapid appreciation of the euro, coupled with the Federal
  Bank (ECB) reducing its quantitative easing program this                  Reserve having raised rates twice this year and expected to do
                                                                            so again before year-end, CHF could consequently come under              1.27
  Autumn. At the end of the month the rate moved even further,
                                                                            selling pressure as speculation over monetary policy divergence
  above 1.14.
                                                                            between the SNB and these central banks increases.                       1.23
  „„ Interestingly, Switzerland’s exports hit an all-time high in
                                                                            „„ In July EUR/CHF appreciated over 1% and could continue if
     the first half of this year and the Swiss National Bank (SNB)
                                                                               eurozone data highlights strong economic conditions from the bloc.
     reported a reduction in foreign-exchange reserves, which                                                                                        1.19
                                                                            „„ Market participants should be cautious of a correction in the             A    S   O   N      D    J   F   M   A     M       J      J
     suggests the central bank may have pulled back on its
                                                                               euro due to substantial speculation over the ECB announcement
     currency intervention efforts.                                                                                                                                                               Source: Reuters, 2017
                                                                               in September. A possible weakness in the Euro could drag both
                                                                               EUR/CHF and USD/CHF down amid increased demand for CHF.
                                                                            „„ GBP/CHF reversed the downward trend of the last months and            ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                               trades more than 2 cents above the year average of 1.25. August
                                                                               hosts the Bank of England interest rate decision and the third
                                                                               round Brexit negotiations which could exacerbate the downside
                                                                                                                                                             „„ Base Rate:                            -0.75%
                                                                               risk to potentially test new lows not seen since November 2016.               „„ Annual GDP:                       1.1% (Q1)
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                          „„ Annual CPI:                   0.2% (June)

      Aug 1                     Aug 7                                Aug 15                          Aug 22                     Aug 28                       „„ Unemployment:                            3.2%
      Manufacturing             Inflation                            Producer and                    Trade                      Brexit
                                                                                                                                                             „„ Trade Balance:                2.8 Bln (CHF)
      PMI                                                            Import Prices                   Balance                    negotiations

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
          Aug 2
          Retail                     Aug 8
          Sales                      Unemployment

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PLN
  ROBERT BATES, CURRENCY ANALYST – UK

  July review
                                                            CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                            POLAND

  Political unrest is threatening the PLN’s strong 2017 performance.
  Poland’s ruling party in parliament, PiS, had a ruling approved
                                                                           August risk events and key themes
                                                                           A resolution to the current political turmoil mentioned above
                                                                           will have a large bearing on the zloty’s performance in August.
  through the upper chamber in parliament so that the country’s            Providing the situation is resolved after the Presidential veto,     USD/PLN (12 MTH)
  supreme court and the rest of the judicial system will come              focus will be on the GDP number on the 16th August. If we
  under its political control. The Eurozone has strongly opposed           see a similar impressive number as in Q1 2017, which was 4%          4.40

  the move as undemocratic, and protests have broken out within            growth y/y and the biggest annual jump in 5 quarters, it seems
                                                                                                                                                4.20
  Poland. The zloty weakened against the Euro to 4.2628 on                 unlikely that the stronger EM currency trend we’ve seen will
  July 21 – a high not seen since April – Poland’s President Andrzej       change in the short term.                                            4.00
  Duda has already announced that he will veto the proposals.              „„ The strength of the zloty means that inflation was at 1.5% y/y
  „„ Despite this the zloty took advantage of weakness in the                 in July - the lowest level for inflation since December 2016.     3.80
     US Dollar to reach year highs whilst threatening to break             „„ Interest rates remain unmoved at 1.5% and this is not             3.60
     below the 3.6 support level. We haven’t seen the 3.6 mark in             forecasted to change in the near future. Unemployment is              A    S   O   N      D    J   F   M   A     M       J      J
     USD/PLN breached since 2015.                                             the only main concern sitting at 7.4%, though this is better                                                   Source: Reuters, 2017
  „„ The zloty has rallied almost 16% against the dollar this year as         than several Eurozone countries.
     investors’ appetite for emerging market (EM) currencies has
     continued to be strong. The zloty also moved to below the 4.7
                                                                                                                                                ECONOMIC DATA
     level against Sterling for the first time since October 2016.
                                                                                                                                                        „„ Base Rate:                               1.5%
                                                                                                                                                        „„ Annual GDP:                       4.0% (Q1)
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                     „„ Annual CPI:                       1.5% (Jun)

      Aug 1                     Aug 7                          Aug 14         Aug 17                       Aug 24                                       „„ Unemployment:                     7.4% (Jun)
      Purchasing                Central Bank                   Net            Corporate                    Unemployment
                                                                                                                                                        „„ Current Account:              -179m (May)
      Manager Index             FX Reserves                    Inflation      Sector Wages

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                  Aug 11                          Aug 18
                                                  Current                         - Retail Sales
                                                  Account                         - Industrial Output
                                                                                  - Producer Price Index

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CZK
  SHANE SPARKS, CURRENCY ANALYST – UK

  July review
                                                            CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                            CZECH REPUBLIC

  The Czech koruna strengthened even further in July, reaching its
  strongest point against the euro since 2013.
                                                                          August risk events and key themes
                                                                          Speculation over whether the CNB will raise interest rates will
                                                                          be key volatility driver as August begins. The CNB could become
  „„ The exchange rate was driven down by market speculation              the first European central bank to hike rates in 2017.                 USD/CZK (12 MTH)
     that the Czech National Bank (CNB) could proceed to a first          „„ August 03: the CNB will hold its interest rate meeting, with
                                                                                                                                                 26.3
     interest rate hike soon, causing the pair to fall below 26.0 for        some betting the CNB will increase its benchmark rate by 20
     the first time since November 2013.                                     basis points to 0.25% from the current 0.05% rate.                  25.3

  „„ Recent Czech data saw GDP growth at 2.9% y/y in Q1, well             „„ August 03: if the CNB hikes, this could see the koruna continue
                                                                                                                                                 24.3
     above the CNB’s forecast of 2.5% y/y. July’s retail sales data          to strengthen past its current multi year highs, especially if
     also reflected strong growth with a 5.7% y/y uplift.                    the CNB signals that another rate rise in 2017 can happen.
                                                                                                                                                 23.3
                                                                          „„ The koruna is at 4-year highs against Sterling (28.9). With
                                                                             further Brexit talks set to continue late-August, UK political      22.3
                                                                                                                                                     A    S   O   N      D    J   F   M   A     M       J      J
                                                                             uncertainty could potentially drive GBP/CZK even lower.
                                                                                                                                                                                              Source: Reuters, 2017
                                                                          „„ The euro could regain some of its losses against the CZK if
                                                                             we see further signals from the European Central Bank that
                                                                             it intends to reduce its Quantitative Easing policy. A potential    ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                             reduction could happen as soon as September.

                                                                                                                                                         „„ Base rate:                             0.05%
                                                                                                                                                         „„ Annual GDP:                              2.9%
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                      „„ Annual CPI:                              2.3%

      Aug 1         Aug 4              Aug 8                             Aug 16                                              Aug 28                      „„ Unemployment:                            4.0%
      Manuf’ng      Retail             Unemployment                      Q2 GDP                                              Brexit
                                                                                                                                                         „„ Trade Balance:                      14.35bln
      PMI           Sales              Rate                                                                                  negotiations

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
               Aug 3
               - Czech National Bank       Aug 9
                  Interest Rate Decision    Inflation
               - BoE Interest Rate Decision

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AUD
  STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

  July review
                                                          CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                          AUSTRALIA

  The Australian dollar surged to two-year highs versus the US
  dollar last month as local economic data improved.
                                                                        August risk events and key themes
                                                                        The market’s heightened state of expectation saw traders
                                                                        push the AUDUSD to two-year highs after the Reserve Bank of
  A weaker greenback – and falling US bond yields – also caused         Australia minutes released on 18 July.                                AUD/USD (12 MTH)
  the AUD to gain as it became more attractive on a relative basis.     The RBA discussed a revised “neutral” setting of 3.50%
                                                                                                                                              0.80
  The Australian dollar’s relatively high interest rates make it an     for local interest rates. The market saw this discussion as a
  attractive investment destination.                                    potential signal of upcoming interest rate increases.
                                                                                                                                              0.77
  The Aussie saw good gains against other currencies as it hit          Later in the month, however, the AUDUSD fell after RBA
  two-month highs versus the New Zealand dollar, three-month            assistant governor Guy Debelle said in a speech that “no
  highs against the British pound and 18-month highs against the        significance should be read into the fact the rate was                0.74
  Japanese yen.                                                         discussed” and the current rate settings “will likely continue for
  „„ The Australian economy’s unemployment rate saw another             the foreseeable future”.                                              0.71
                                                                                                                                                  A    S   O   N      D    J   F   M   A     M       J      J
     strong result with the unemployment rate steady at the             For now, it appears the RBA is still “on hold”. But for how long?
     lowest levels since February 2013.                                 „„ Local policy setting for the Australian dollar will be critical                                                 Source: Reuters, 2017

  „„ Higher commodity prices have also boosted the Australian
     dollar with iron ore up almost 20% since mid-June.
                                                                           with the RBA meeting on 1 August.
                                                                        „„ Inflation and job growth will also be critical. The next
                                                                                                                                              ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                           employment reading is due on 17 August.
                                                                                                                                                      „„ Base Rate:                             1.50%
                                                                                                                                                      „„ Annual GDP:                            1.70%
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                   „„ Annual CPI:                            2.10%

      Aug 1          Aug 4                                         Aug 15                                  Aug 24-26                                  „„ Unemployment:                          5.60%
      RBA            Retail                                        RBA                                     US Jackson Hole
                                                                                                                                                      „„ Trade Balance:                2.5bln (AUD)
      Decision       Sales                                         Minutes                                 Economic Symposium

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                 Aug 3
                 Trade                                                       Aug 17
                 Balance                                                     Employment

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JPY                                                          CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                             JAPAN
  GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA

  July review
  July presented another month of divergence between the EUR/JPY
  and USD/JPY rates. The EUR/JPY pair extended its gains by 1.3% in
                                                                            August risk events and key themes
                                                                            The monetary desynchronization story could keep on pushing
                                                                            the EUR/JPY rate to higher levels in August. The magnitude
  July, and has risen by 13% since mid-April (as of July 20). This rise     of the upside potential is nevertheless dependent on signals          GBP/JPY (12 MTH)
  comes from a widening of bonds yield spreads (long-term interest          sent by European Central Bank (ECB) officials ahead of the
  rates) between Europe and Japan. While a monetary tightening              bank’s September meeting. Any argument supporting a likely            149
  cycle is looming in Europe, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) still holds a         QE tapering announcement would trigger another rally for euro
  very accommodative stance as Japanese inflation is anchored               against yen. Awaiting tangible signals, the EUR/JPY rate could        143
  at a very low level. Conversely, USD/JPY erased almost 2% of              take a breather and consolidate within a ¥125-130 range. The
                                                                                                                                                  137
  earlier gains in the second half of July as investors turned nervous      future path of USD/JPY will mainly depend on the degree of
  after the release of new information strengthening doubts about           political fears in the US, as investigations into Donald Trump
                                                                                                                                                  131
  possible collusion between Donald Trump and Russia.                       might hamper his political and economic agenda.
  „„ BOJ pushed back the deadline by a year for when it expects             „„ The annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers in the        125
     to reach its inflation target of 2% (beyond March 2019).                  US in late-August could give us new updates about future                 A    S   O    N       D   J   F   M   A     M       J      J

     Ultra‑accommodative monetary conditions could then be                     Federal Reserve, ECB and BOJ monetary policy.                                                                      Source: Reuters, 2017
     extended in Japan.
                                                                                                                                                  ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                            „„ USD/JPY might fall towards April lows of ¥108-¥110 if political
  „„ EUR/JPY returned above ¥130 for the first time since                      concerns in the US increase and/or threats of North Korean
     February 2016. USD/JPY fell below ¥112 ahead of the                       attacks hit the headlines again.
     testimony of Donald Trump’s elder son before the Senate.               „„ EUR/JPY could extend its rally and head toward 2016 highs of
                                                                                                                                                            „„ Policy rate:                             -0.1%
                                                                               ¥132-133 if ECB officials signal any QE tapering.
                                                                                                                                                            „„ GDP:                       1.3% (annualized)
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                         „„ CPI:                       0.4% (annualized)

                                                                 Aug 14         Aug 17                      Aug 24-26                  Aug 30               „„ Unemployment:                             3.1%
                                                                 Flash          Trade                       US Jackson Hole            Retail
                                                                                                                                                            „„ Trade Balance:                     ¥439.9 Bln
                                                                 Q2 GDP         Balance                     Economic Symposium         Sales

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                                                                                                  Aug 29
                                                                                                                 Aug 25           Household
                                                                                                                 CPI              spending

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CNY
  STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

  July review
                                                          CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                          CHINA

  The Chinese yuan was mostly stronger in July as improving
  economic growth and a mild monetary tightening in terms of
                                                                            August risk events and key themes
                                                                            As with many currencies, Chinese currency markets have been
                                                                            wrong-footed by the unexpected weakness of the US dollar this
  liquidity caused the Chinese currency to gain.                            year. These moves saw the CNY approaching nine-month highs.               USD/CNY (12 MTH)
  Chinese economic growth ticked higher in the June quarter with            Further volatility can be expected.
                                                                                                                                                      7.00
  annual GDP at 6.9% – equaling the best rate in more than two              The improving economic picture and returned of leveraged
  years – with strong results also seen in industrial production and        speculation has seen some analysts call for tighter policy from           6.90
  retail sales.                                                             the People’s Bank of China. If the PBOC does act, the CNY
  This pick-up in growth aligns with better data both around the            could gain further.                                                       6.80

  region and across the world.                                              „„ Growth data will be closely watched as will commentary from
                                                                                                                                                      6.70
  „„ The CNY continued to climb versus the US dollar with the                  central bank officials. A tightening in policy is likely to be only
     Chinese currency nearing nine-month highs during the month.               small but could have considerable effect.                              6.60
                                                                                                                                                          A    S   O   N      D    J   F   M     A     M       J      J
  „„ The CNY climbed to six-month highs versus the Japanese yen             „„ Local focus will soon turn to politics with the 19th Party
     but fell to three-year lows versus the euro.                              Congress to be held later in the year. The gathering is likely to                                                     Source: Reuters, 2017
                                                                               anoint the next generation of Chinese leaders.
                                                                                                                                                      ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                              „„ Base Rate:                               4.35%
                                                                                                                                                              „„ Annual GDP:                              6.90%
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                           „„ Annual CPI:                              1.50%

                                     Aug 8                     Aug 14                                                              Aug 31                     „„ Unemployment:                            4.00%
                                     Trade                     Industrial                                                    Manufacturing
                                                                                                                                                              „„ Trade Balance:                $40.5bln (USD)
                                     Balance                   Production                                                             PMI

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                               Aug 14
                                         Aug 9                 Retail
                                         CPI                   Sales

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NZD
  STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

  July review
                                                           CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                           NEW ZEALAND

  The New Zealand dollar marched towards two-year highs versus
  the US dollar last month despite a short stumble after weaker
                                                                         August risk events and key themes
                                                                         An improving global outcome and better confidence numbers
                                                                         caused markets to speculate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
  than expected inflation numbers.                                       might soon raise rates.                                                NZD/USD (12 MTH)
  The NZD has seen multi-month highs versus a range of                   However, an annual inflation rate of 1.7% was well below
                                                                                                                                                0.75
  currencies as the uptick in global growth and better local data        the 1.9% expected and saw the NZD sold heavily after the
  support the currency.                                                  announcement. Regardless, the kiwi regained the lost ground            0.73
  „„ The NZD has benefited as US bond yields eased. With                 later in the month.
                                                                                                                                                0.71
     relatively higher interest rates, the NZD is helped higher by       With the NZDUSD near two-year highs, good news on the
     falling US bond yields.                                             inflation front might be needed for further gains.
                                                                                                                                                0.69
  „„ While inflation figures were weaker, other data has remained        „„ This month, employment, due 2 August, and retail sales, due
     strong. Historically high migration levels continue to boost           14 August, will be closely watched.                                 0.67
                                                                                                                                                    A    S   O   N      D    J   F   M   A     M       J      J
     confidence and growth.                                              „„ Like all currencies, the NZD is likely to be driven by the
                                                                                                                                                                                             Source: Reuters, 2017
                                                                            ongoing political struggles in the US.
                                                                         „„ The RBNZ decision, due 10 August, will provide further
                                                                            guidance on the central bank’s thinking.
                                                                                                                                                ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                        „„ Base Rate:                             1.75%
                                                                                                                                                        „„ Annual GDP:                            2.50%
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                     „„ Annual CPI:                            1.70%

          Aug 2                               Aug 10           Aug 14                                                                                   „„ Unemployment:                          4.90%
          Dairy                               RBNZ             Retail
                                                                                                                                                        „„ Trade Balance:                $103m (NZD)
          Prices                                               Sales

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
                                                                        Aug 16
          Aug 2                                                         Dairy
          Employment                                                    Prices

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SGD
  STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

  July review
                                                              CURRENCY OUTLOOK
                                                              SINGAPORE

  The Singapore dollar was boosted throughout July as improving
  global data and stronger share markets boosted sentiment
                                                                            August risk events and key themes
                                                                            The SGD might continue to gain as improving global economic
                                                                            data boosts trade. The SGD’s strength is closely tied to global
  towards Asia. The SGD was a key beneficiary.                              trade volumes.                                                      USD/SGD (12 MTH)
  The SGD’s best gains were against the US dollar. The USD fell to          US inflation – and its impact on US interest rates – can also
                                                                                                                                                1.48
  one-year lows versus a basket of currencies as ongoing political          affect the SGD.
  difficulties raised concerns about the US administration’s ability to     Any slowdown in the pace of US rate hikes could boost the           1.44
  prosecute its agenda.                                                     SGD. Upcoming announcements from the US Federal reserve
                                                                                                                                                1.40
  „„ The USDSGD fell to ten-month lows as the greenback                     will be closely watched.
     weakened.                                                              „„ Looking forward, local export data on 17 August and inflation    1.36
  „„ The SGD also gained versus the Japanese yen as markets                    data on 23 August will be the key releases.
     favoured emerging currencies. The JPY fell to 15-month lows.                                                                               1.32
                                                                            „„ The Monetary Authority of Singapore next meets in early              A    S   O    N   D     J   F   M    A     M       J      J
  „„ The SGD fell versus the euro as the European Central Bank                 October. Inflation remains below target and a change in the
                                                                                                                                                                                             Source: Reuters, 2017
     signalled a more positive view.                                           MAS’s policy remains a possibility.

                                                                                                                                                ECONOMIC DATA
                                                                                                                                                        „„ SIBOR:                                 1.06%
                                                                                                                                                        „„ GDP:                                   2.50%
  August2017 EVENTS                                                                                                                                     „„ CPI:                                   1.50%

           Aug 2                                    Aug 11                      Aug 17                  Aug 23                                          „„ Unemployment:                          2.30%
           Manufacturing                            Retail                      Exports                 CPI
                                                                                                                                                        „„ Trade Balance:               $6.4bln (SGD)
           PMI                                      Sales

     01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

                                                                  Aug 14
                                                                  GDP

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DISCLAIMERS

 Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed in this                     ASIA PACIFIC
 communication on information generally available to the public. Western Union                 Australia                                                                                    New Zealand
 Business Solutions makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and
 specifically disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions   In Australia, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union            Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. In
 based on the opinions expressed and information contained in this communication.              Company. In Australia, Custom House Currency Exchange (Australia) Pty Limited                New Zealand, Western Union Business Solutions (Australia) Pty Ltd, NZ branch
 Such information and opinions are for general information purposes only and are not           ABN 95 086 278 659 and AFSL 238290 and/or Western Union Business Solutions                   (company number 3527631 and FSP 168204) (“WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial
 intended to present advice with respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.               (Australia) Pty Limited ABN 24 150 129 749 and AFSL 404092 (collectively referred to         products (if any) referred to in this communication. A Product Disclosure Statement is
                                                                                               as “WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial products (if any) referred to in                   available for each of the financial products that WUBS issues and can be obtained by
 This communication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any         this communication.                                                                          visiting http://business.westernunion.co.nz/about/compliance/.
 person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
 country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use       A Product Disclosure Statement is available for each of the financial products that          Any advice provide in this communication is class (general) advice only and does not
 would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject WUBS or its affiliates          WUBS issues (if any) and can be obtained by visiting our compliance and legal web            take account of your financial situation, objectives and/or needs. Because of this,
 to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.                        page. Unless we expressly state otherwise any information given by WUBS in relation          before you act on it (including making any decisions and/or trading) you should
                                                                                               to financial products will be factual information only and does not take account of your     consider its appropriateness having regard to your own objectives, financial situation
 This communication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does               financial situation, objectives or needs. Because of this, before you act on it (including   and/or needs. WUBS recommends that you seek personalised (personal) financial
 not in any way create any binding obligations on either party. Relations between you          making any decision and/or trading) you should consider its appropriateness having           advice from an authorised financial adviser.
 and WUBS shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions provided to you             regard to your own objectives, financial situations and/or needs.
 before you undertake any transaction with WUBS. No representations, warranties or                                                                                                          Singapore
 conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this communication.                   Before you decide to acquire a financial product from WUBS you should read and
                                                                                               consider the relevant product disclosure statement.                                          In Singapore, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
 © 2017 Western Union Holdings Inc. All rights reserved.                                                                                                                                    Company. Depending on the nature and scope of the services, services in Singapore
                                                                                               Hong Kong
                                                                                                                                                                                            are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS
                                                                                               In Hong Kong, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union            Singapore”) and/or WUBS Financial Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS FS
                                                                                               Company. Services in Hong Kong are provided by Western Union Business Solutions              Singapore”) (collectively referred to as “WUBS”).
                                                                                               (Hong Kong) Limited (company number 1474270 and CE number BGY438) (“WUBS”).
                                                                                                                                                                                            WUBS FS Singapore is a capital markets services licence holder for leveraged foreign
                                                                                               WUBS is a licensed money service operator under the Anti-Money Laundering and                exchange trading, and an exempt financial adviser for advising others, either directly
                                                                                               Counter-Terrorist Financing (Financial Institutions) Ordinance (Chapter 615, the Laws        or indirectly through publications or writings, and whether in electronic, print or other
                                                                                               of Hong Kong). WUBS is also licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission in             form, concerning contracts or arrangements for the purposes of foreign exchange
                                                                                               Hong Kong to conduct Type 3 (leveraged foreign exchange trading) regulated activity.         trading and leveraged foreign exchange trading (other than advising others by issuing
                                                                                               Risk Disclosure Statements                                                                   or promulgating research analyses or research reports, whether in electronic, print or
                                                                                               1. The risk of loss in leveraged foreign exchange trading can be substantial. You may        other form, concerning any investment product and advising on corporate finance
                                                                                               sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds. Placing contingent orders, such       within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap 289 (“SFA”).
                                                                                               as “stop loss” or “stop limit” orders will not necessarily limit losses to the intended      WUBS Singapore is a remittances licence holder. All payment and remittance
                                                                                               amounts. Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. You may            services referred to in this communication are offered under WUBS Singapore’s
                                                                                               be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds. If the required           Remittance Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). WUBS
                                                                                               funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated.          Singapore’s service does not include any service under the Payment Systems
                                                                                               You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account. You should therefore       (Oversight) Act 2006.
                                                                                               carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in light of your own financial           WUBS is not licensed, registered or authorised, or hold themselves out to be
                                                                                               position and investment objectives.                                                          licensed, registered or authorised to conduct any regulated activities under the SFA,
                                                                                               2. Client assets received or held by WUBS or a WUBS group company outside                    financial advisory services under the Financial Advisers Act, Cap 110, money
                                                                                               Hong Kong are subject to the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant                 changing business and remittance business under the Money-Changing and
                                                                                               overseas jurisdiction which may be different from the Securities and Futures                 Remittance Business Act, Cap 187, and any other financial services or activities
                                                                                               Ordinance (Cap. 571) and the rules made thereunder. Consequently, such client assets         subject to regulatory supervisions by the MAS or any other authority in Singapore,
                                                                                               may not enjoy the same protection as that conferred on client assets received or held        save in respect of the specific activities described above for which each entity holds
                                                                                               in Hong Kong.                                                                                a licence or an exemption to conduct such specific activities.
DISCLAIMERS

 NORTH AMERICA                                                                            France                                                                                     Malta
 Canada                                                                                   In France, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union             In Malta, Western Union Business Solutions is an operating division of The Western
 In Canada, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union           Company and provides services in France through its wholly-owned subsidiary                Union Company. Services in Malta are provided by Western Union Business Solutions
 Company. Services in Canada are provided by Custom House ULC, a company within           Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch, (referred to as “WUBS” or            (Malta) Limited, a limited company registered in Malta (Company Number C22339) with
 the Western Union Business Solutions division.                                           “Western Union Business Solutions”).                                                       its registered office at Il-Piazzetta, Tower Road, Sliema, SLM 1605, Malta and which is
                                                                                          Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch (RCS Nanterre 750 938 094)            licensed and regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority to undertake the
 USA                                                                                                                                                                                 business of financial services in terms of the Financial Institutions Act) (“WUBS”).
                                                                                          has a registered place of business at Tour Manhattan, 5-6 place de l’Iris, 92095 Paris
 In USA, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company.     La Défense Cedex, France and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH          Poland
 Services in the US are provided by Custom House USA, LLC (NMLS ID: 906985) and           (Registration Number 256184t), an Austrian company whose regsistered office is at
 Western Union Business Solutions (USA), LLC (NMLS ID: 907333) (collectively referred                                                                                                In Poland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
                                                                                          Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.                                                     Company and provides services in Poland through Western Union International Bank
 to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”). For a complete listing of US
 state licensing, visit http://business.westernunion.com/about/notices/. For additional   Germany                                                                                    GmbH, Polish Branch (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
 information about Custom House USA, LLC and Western Union Business Solutions             In Germany, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union            Western Union International Bank GmbH, Polish Branch (KRS No: 0000458059, NIP
 (USA), LLC, visit http://business.westernunion.com/about/compliance/.                    Company and provides services in Germany through Western Union’s wholly-owned              No: 1080015316), has a registered place of business at Al. Jana Pawla II 29, 00-867
                                                                                          subsidiary Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch (referred to as           Warsaw, Poland, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH
                                                                                          “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).                                             (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
                                                                                          Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch, has a registered place of           Switzerland
 EUROPE                                                                                   business at Solmsstrasse 18, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Germany and is a branch of           In Switzerland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
 Austria                                                                                  Western Union International Bank GmbH (registered in Austria, Registration Number          Company. Services in Switzerland are provided by Rüesch International, LLC (Swiss
 In Austria, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union          256184t, Regsistered Office address: Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria).               branch), with a registered place of business at Werdstrasse 2, P.O. Box 2063, 8021
 Company and provides services in Austria through Western Union’s wholly-owned            Italy                                                                                      Zurich, Switzerland (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
 subsidiary, Western Union International Bank GmbH (referred to as “WUBS” or              In Italy, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Company      Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed herein on
 “Western Union Business Solutions”).                                                     and provides services in Italy through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Western Union        information generally available to the public. Western Union Business Solutions
 Western Union International Bank GmbH is registered in Austria (company number           International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch and Custom House Financial (UK) Limited              makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and specifically
 FN256184t), Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.                                       (which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions).            disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions based on
 Czech Republic                                                                           Custom House Financial (UK) Limited offers the Online Foreign Exchange service             the opinions expressed and information contained herein. Such information and
                                                                                          (online FX); all other services are offered by Western Union International Bank GmbH,      opinions are for general information only and are not intended to present advice with
 In the Czech Republic, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western
                                                                                          Italy branch.                                                                              respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.
 Union Company and provides services in the Czech Republic through Western Union
 International Bank GmbH, organizační složka (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western           Western Union International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch (Registered Office in Rome: via        United Kingdom
 Union Business Solutions”).                                                              Virigilio Maroso 50, 00142 Italy; Fiscal Code and Companies House Registration             In the UK, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
 Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered in the           number: 13068651002; Enrolled in the Bank Register held by Bank of Italy (no. 3446)), is   Company. Services in the UK are provided by Custom House Financial (UK) Limited
 Czech Commercial Register held by the Municipal Court in Prague, identification          a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH, a company organised under               (which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions) or
 number 015 55 332, has a registered place of business at Václavské náměstí 62, 110       Austrian Law (Companies House Registration number 256184t; Registered Office:              Western Union Business Solutions (UK) Limited (collectively referred to as “WUBS”
 00 Prague 1, Czech Republic, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank         Schubertring 11, A-1010 Vienna, Austria; Corporate Capital: €12.000.000; Sole              or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
 GmbH (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.                Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and coordination activity of):         Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company Number
                                                                                          Western Union Overseas Limited) and which is a bank registered on a list of banks          04380026, Registered Office Address: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW) is
 Western Union International Bank GmbH is a bank registered on a list of banks
                                                                                          maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Österreichische                     authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services
 maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Finanzmarktaufsicht).
                                                                                          Finanzmarktaufsicht).                                                                      Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services
 Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered on a list of
 banks and branches of foreign banks maintained by the Czech National Bank.               Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (Incorporated in England; Company Number:              and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue & Customs (Registered No: 12140130).
                                                                                          04380026; Registered Office: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW; Corporate                  Western Union Business Solutions (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company
                                                                                          Capital £800,001.00; Sole Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and          Number 02854737, Registered Office Address: 12 Appold Street, London, EC2A 2AW)
                                                                                          coordination activity of): Western Union Processing Limited), is authorised by the UK      is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services
                                                                                          Financial Conduct Authority under the payment services regulations 2009 (register          Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 536611) for the provision of payment services
                                                                                          reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services                                   and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue & Customs (Registered No: 12122416).
Don’t let the currency market detract from your bottom line.
  Contact Western Union Business Solutions
  www.business.westernunion.com

  United States                   Canada                     United Kingdom                Australia
  Tel: 1 866 953 6491             Tel: 1 888 987 7612        Toll Free: 0800 096 1229      Tel: +612 8001 2100
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