Market Strategy - Arif Habib Limited

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                                                                                              Market Strategy
                                                                           Jul’21: Market down by 0.6%
                                                                                                                                    30-Jul-2021

AHL Research
D: +92 21 32462742
UAN: +92 21 111 245 111, Ext: 322
F: +92 21 32420742
E: ahl-research@arifhabibltd.com

                                                                                                                                   Best Equity Research
                                                                                                         Corporate Finance House
 Best Domestic Equity House   Best Broker in Pakistan   Best Corporate & Investment   Top 25 Companies                                Analyst: 2020
                                                                                                            of the Year: 2020
                                                               Bank: 2020
PSX Performance Jul 2021

Rising Cases of Covid-19 Dampened Market Activity
During Jul’21 the KSE-100 index posted a negative return of 0.6% or 301 points MoM
to close at 47,055pts. A lack of interest and negative sentiment in the market was fueled
by i) Continued rise in cases of Covid-19 (Rapid spread of delta variant) and infection
ratio which increased from 2-3% in Jun’21 to more than 7% in Jul’21, ii) Pressure on
external account amid rising current account deficit on the back of massive increase in
imports, iii) Depreciation of the PKR/USD parity, iv) Expected increase in inflationary
readings amid surge in petroleum product prices, and v) Anticipation of Sindh
government imposing stricter restrictions to curb the virus spread as Karachi witnessed
a notable surge in its infection ratio to over 20%. Moreover, uncertainty over how the
geopolitical scenario pans out with regards to the US exit from Afghanistan, and
Pakistan’s crucial role in this, also kept sentiment jittery.

Other key highlights this month include i) Inflation reading clocks in at 9.7% in June, ii)
FBR surpasses FY2020-21 tax collection target, iii) Pakistan's power production hits
record high at 24,284MW, iv) Petrol price hiked by Rs5.40/litre, v) Current account ends
FY21 in deficit, vi) Dollar hits nine-month high at Rs161.48, and vii) Foreign direct
investment declines by 29pc in FY21.

Volumes during the month nosedived and dropped by 50% MoM amid Eid holidays and
reasons aforementioned above. Likewise, value traded also followed the same trend
and dropped by 38% MoM.

Major News
Pakistan records highest export of goods in FY21, PIBs attract net inflow of $256m in
12 months, Talks with IMF going smoothly: SBP chief, Pakistan tops up March bonds
to the tune of $1bn, Cherat Cement Factory to set up plant in DI Khan, Forex reserves
drop to $24.31bln, Govt raises Rs551 billion via MTBs’ auction, GDP grew faster than
ADB forecast in FY21, and Lucky Cement to set up assembly plant

Fig: KSE100 historical returns (PKR based)                                                                                       Fig: KSE100 historical returns (USD based)
                             PKR based Return                                           Average Return                                                        USD based Return                                           Average Return
 9.0%                                                                                              8.2%                           9.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7.5%
 7.5%                                                                                                                             7.5%
                                                6.5%
                                                          6.0%                                                                                                                   6.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                           5.8%
 6.0%                                                                                                                             6.0% 5.2%
         4.7%
 4.5%                                                                                                                             4.5%
                                                                                                                                                                       3.5%
                                      3.0%
 3.0%                                                                                                                             3.0%
                                                                                                                                                             1.7%
 1.5%                                                                                                                             1.5%                                                                         0.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.1%
 0.0%                                                                                                                             0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-21
                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-20
                                                                                                                                          Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                    Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec-20

                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-21
                                                                                                                                                              Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-21
                                                                                                                        Jul-21
                                       Nov-20

                                                 Dec-20

                                                           Jan-21

                                                                                                               Jun-21
          Aug-20

                    Sep-20

                             Oct-20

                                                                     Feb-21

                                                                               Mar-21

                                                                                          Apr-21

                                                                                                    May-21

 -1.5%                                                                                                                           -1.5%

                   -1.3%-1.7%                                                            -0.7%                                   -3.0%             -1.0%                                                                 -1.2%
 -3.0%                                                              -1.1%                                    -1.1%-0.6%
                                                                              -2.8%                                                                                                                                                          -3.1%
                                                                                                                                 -4.5%                                                                                                            -3.6%
 -4.5%
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research                                                                                                    Source (s): PSX, Bloomberg, AHL Research

Arif Habib Limited                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2
PSX Performance Jul 2021

Economic Developments
 Notwithstanding the impediments created by the ‘third wave’ of the pandemic,
  Pakistan closed FY21 with historic high levels of exports (goods) and remittances.
  The overall trade too remained high as economic activities ramped up, well-
  supported by the policies and measures undertaken by the State Bank and
  government, both. All said, what could have stayed in green ended in red; Current
  Account posted a deficit of USD 1.9bn in FY21, with a huge USD 1.6bn deficit
  recorded alone in the month of Jun’21. However, on a YoY basis, current account
  deficit has come down by 58% during FY21, the lowest deficit after 10-years (Surplus
  of USD 214mn in FY11). Total imports increased by 17.6% YoY to USD 61.6bn
  during FY21 while total exports increased by 12.8% YoY to USD 31.6bn during the
  same period. With this, the Balance of Trade recorded a deficit of USD 30bn
  compared to a deficit of USD 24.4bn SPLY, marking a jump of 23%. Remittances
  were a silver lining, reaching USD 29.4bn by FY21 end (up 27% YoY).

 Remittances have been the most reliable source of foreign exchange flows for
  Pakistan. During the past 10 years, inward flow of remittances increased by a CAGR
  of 10.1%, driven by persistent export of man power from Pakistan along with
  encouragement by the Government to use legal channels to remit money into
  Pakistan. During FY21, remittances were up by 27% YoY to USD 29.4bn as the
  strong momentum of inflows continued to take the cumulative figure to an
  unprecedented level. Remittances by overseas Pakistanis registered an increase of
  8% YoY to USD 2.7bn during Jun'21 compared to USD 2.5bn during Jun'20. During
  FY21, the country wise data reveals that inflow from KSA, UAE, UK and USA
  amounted to USD 7.7bn (+16% YoY), USD 6.1bn (+9% YoY), USD 4.1bn (+58%
  YoY) and USD 2.8bn (+58% YoY), respectively.

 Foreign direct investment (FDI) during FY21 witnessed a net inflow USD 1.8bn (-29%
  YoY) compared to net inflow of USD 2.6bn SPLY. During Jun’21, FDI witnessed a
  net inflow of USD 135mn, down 23% YoY. China remained the largest investor with
  net FDI of USD 758mn during FY21 against USD 847mn during same period last
  year. Hong Kong remained the second largest investor with net FDI of USD 157mn
  during FY21 compared with USD 191mn during same period last year. During FY21,
  major investment was poured into the Power sector (USD 906mn) followed by
  Financial Business Sector (USD 236mn) and Oil & Gas Explorations Sector (USD
  243mn).

 Latest data released by PBS suggests that Large Scale Manufacturing Industries
  (LSMI) output has witnessed an increase of 37% YoY during May’21, which is
  attributable to the low base SPLY when there was a national lockdown on account
  of COVID. LSM Index currently stands at 139.55 compared to 101.98 SPLY.
  However, for four consecutive months the index has posted negative growth MoM
  with the the LSMI Index posting a decline of 4% MoM during May’21. Some of the
  monthly downtrends include 57% MoM decline in Sugar, 10% MoM decline in Wheat
  and grain milling, 17% MoM decline in Motor Spirits and 10% MoM decline in Furnace
  Oil. The YoY increase during May’21 is primarily attributable to a low base effect on
  account of a lockdown last year, and is led by i) Textile (+48% YoY), ii)Food,
  Beverages and Tobacco (+15% YoY), iii) Coke & Petroleum (+4% YoY), iv) Iron and
  Steel products (+40% YoY), v) Automobiles(+409% YoY), vi) Fertilizer (+13% YoY),
  and vii) Pharmaceuticals (+15% YoY). However, Rubber Products was the only
  category that witnessed a decline of 15% YoY.

Arif Habib Limited                                                                        3
PSX Performance Jul 2021

 Volume and Value went down during Jul’21
     Average traded volume and value during Jul’21 went down by 50% (460mn shares)
      and 38% (USD 93mn), respectively. During the month, average traded value
      remained below USD 100mn after 8 months.

 Fig: Traded Volume decreased by 50% during Jul’21                                                                            Fig: Traded Value decreased by 38% during Jul’21
               Avg. Traded Volume (Regular)                                                 MoM Change                                         Avg. Traded Value (Regular)                                                      MoM Change
(mn shares)                                                                                                                    (USD mn)
1,000                                                                                                913               140%    180                                                          164                                                    125%
     900                                                                                                               120%    160                                                                                              150
                                                                                            774                                                                                    144               143               139                         100%
     800                                                                                                               100%                                               134
                                                                                                                               140
     700                                                                                                               80%            118                                                                                                          75%
                    603                                 624 622                                                                120             111                                                            107
     600   518                                                                                                    60%                                                                                                                     93       50%
                                               493                                                                             100                      87
     500                                                                  439                                 460 40%
                             404                                                                                                80
     400                                                                           354                                 20%                                       65                                                                                25%
                                      283                                                                                       60
     300                                                                                                               0%                                                                                                                          0%
     200                                                                                                               -20%     40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -25%
     100                                                                                                               -40%     20
      -                                                                                                                -60%      -                                                                                                                 -50%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-21
                                                                                                              Jul-21
                                                        Jan-21

                                                                                                     Jun-21

                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-21
                                                                                                                                               Sep-20
           Aug-20

                    Sep-20

                             Oct-20

                                      Nov-20

                                               Dec-20

                                                                                                                                      Aug-20
                                                                 Feb-21

                                                                          Mar-21

                                                                                   Apr-21

                                                                                                                                                        Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                          Dec-20

                                                                                                                                                                                            Feb-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-21
                                                                                            May-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       May-21
 Source (s): PSX, AHL Research                                                                                                Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Arif Habib Limited                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4
PSX Performance Jul 2021

 During Jul’21, scrip-wise volumes were led by WTL (52mn shares), TPL (24mn
  shares) and BYCO (23mn shares).
 Scrip-wise value was led by TRG (USD 8.6mn), TREET (USD 5.2mn) and TPL (USD
  3.2mn).
 On sector-wise basis, volumes were led by Technology (119mn shares), Food (50mn
  shares) and Miscellaneous (28mn shares).
 Sector-wise value was led by Technology (USD 20.3mn), Food (USD 12.3mn) and
  Cement (USD 6.5mn).

Fig: Scrip wise volume leaders                                                                                                                                  Fig: Scrip wise value leaders

(mn shares)                                                                                                                                                     (USD mn)
56         52                                                                                                                                                   10.0
                                                                                                                                                                         8.6
49                                                                                                                                                               9.0
                                                                                                                                                                 8.0
42
                                                                                                                                                                 7.0
35                                                                                                                                                               6.0                     5.2
28                            24           23                                                                                                                    5.0
21                                                                                                                                                               4.0                               3.2
                                                         15                  14                                                                                                                               2.9
                                                                                             13             12                                                   3.0                                                                 2.5               2.3            2.2             2.2           2.2
14                                                                                                                     11         11              11                                                                                                                                                                 2.1
                                                                                                                                                                 2.0
 7                                                                                                                                                               1.0
-                                                                                                                                                                 -
                                                         HASCOL
                              TPL

                                           BYCO

                                                                                             SILK

                                                                                                                       TPLP

                                                                                                                                                  TELE
           WTL

                                                                                                                                  GGGL
                                                                             TREET

                                                                                                            KEL

                                                                                                                                                                                                   TPL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     TPLP

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       SNGP

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NRL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     LUCK
                                                                                                                                                                           TRG

                                                                                                                                                                                         TREET

                                                                                                                                                                                                              UNITY

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NETSOL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    AVN
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research                                                                                                                                   Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Fig: Sector wise volume leaders                                                                                                                                  Fig: Sector wise value leaders

                                                                                                                                                                 (USD mn)
    (mn shares)
    130                                                                                                                                                           25.0
             119
                                                                                                                                                                           20.3
    110                                                                                                                                                           20.0

     90
                                                                                                                                                                  15.0
                                                                                                                                                                                         12.3
     70
                                    50                                                                                                                            10.0
     50
                                                                                                                                                                                                    6.5          6.0
                                                  28              27                                                                                                                                                                    5.4               4.8
                                                                                     26         25            23                                                                                                                                                               4.3          4.1
     30                                                                                                                   19                                       5.0                                                                                                                                    3.8               3.3
                                                                                                                                     17              16
     10
                                                                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Banks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              OGMCs

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Chemical
                                                                                                                                                                            Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Pharma
                                                                                                                                                                                            Food

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Misc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Autos Assem.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cement

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Refinery
                                                                                     Banks

                                                                                                                                     Inv. Banks
                                                                                                    OGMCs

                                                                                                                                                     Chemical
                 Technology

                                                  Misc
                                    Food

                                                                                                                          Power
                                                                  Refinery

                                                                                                              Cement

    (10)

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research                                                                                                                                    Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Arif Habib Limited                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5
PSX Performance Jul 2021

Index Contribution
 Positive index contribution was led by Banks (200pts) amid attractive valuation,
  Chemicals (93pts) in anticipation of better Jun’21 ending results, Fertilizer (61pts),
  Textile Composite (40pts) and Miscellaneous (32pts).
 Whereas, negative contributors were E&P (147pts), followed by Refinery (142pts),
  Cement (109pts), Power (98pts) and Food (77pts).
 Scrip-wise positive contributors during the month were i) SYS (141pts), ii) EFERT
  (82pts), iii) MEBL (79pts), iv) HBL (74pts) and v) LUCK (65pts).
 Meanwhile, scrip-wise negative contributions were led by TRG (122pts), NRL
  (79pts), PPL (78pts), HUBC (69pts) and ANL (51pts).

Fig: Company wise top index contributors                                      Fig: Sector wise top index contributors

                                   SYS                        141                                       Banks                                  200
                              EFERT                    82                                             Chemical                    93
                               MEBL                    79                                             Fertilizer             61
                                   HBL             74                                      Textile Composite            40
                               LUCK               65                                                      Misc         32

                     (51)          ANL                                                         (77)       Food

                (69)           HUBC                                                     (98)            Power
              (78)                 PPL                                             (109)               Cement
             (79)                  NRL                                          (142)                 Refinery

    (122)                          TRG                                         (147)                      E&P

   (150)    (100)           (50)         -   50        100   150    200           (150)    (100)      (50)         -   50     100      150   200

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research                                                 Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Arif Habib Limited                                                                                                                                 6
PSX Performance Jul 2021

Major Gainers and Losers
 Scrip-wise performance chart during the month was led by GADT, KTML, SYS,
  COLG and FABL, each posting positive returns positive return of 30%, 14%, 13%,
  12%, and 11% respectively. On the flip-side, HASCOL, NRL, ANL, BYCO and ATRL
  posted the negative returns (29%, 25%, 17%, 16% and 11% respectively).
 In terms of sectors, Textile spinning sector was the best performing, posting a return
  of 30%, followed by Real Estate (10%), Modarabas (8%), Sugar (8%) and Chemicals
  (7%). Negative returns were led by Refinery (18%), Tobacco (11%), Vanaspati (9%),
  Cable and Electrical (8%), and Leather (8%).

Fig: Scrip wise major gainers (KSE-100)                                                                                                         Fig: Scrip wise major losers (KSE-100)

 32%                                                                                                                                              33%
       30%                                                                                                                                               29%
 29%                                                                                                                                              30%
                                                                                                                                                  27%                25%
 26%
                                                                                                                                                  24%
 23%                                                                                                                                              21%
                                                                                                                                                                                17%
 20%                                                                                                                                              18%                                        16%
                                                                                                                                                  15%
 17%                                                                                                                                                                                                          11% 11% 11% 10%
                  14%                                                                                                                             12%
                                13% 12%                                                                                                                                                                                                                9%          9%
 14%                                                                                                                                               9%
                                                     11% 10% 10% 10%
 11%                                                                 10%                                                                           6%
                                                                                                                                    8%
                                                                                                                                                   3%
  8%
                                                                                                                                                   0%

                                                                                                                                                                                  ANL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              UNITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   FCEPL
                                                                                                                                                          HASCOL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         POML

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     KEL
                                                                                                                                                                                                BYCO
                                                                                                                                                                      NRL

                                                                                                                                                                                                               ATRL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          PAKT
  5%
                    KTML

                                                          FABL
                                   SYS

                                                                     PSX

                                                                                                                    EPCL
                                              COLG

                                                                               DCR
         GADT

                                                                                                                                        FHAM
                                                                                                     SNGP

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research                                                                                                                   Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Fig: Sector wise major gainers (KSE100)                                                                                                        Fig: Sector wise major losers (KSE100)

       30%                                                                                                                                      20.0%
                                                                                                                                                        18.1%
 30%
                                                                                                                                                18.0%

 25%                                                                                                                                            16.0%
                                                                                                                                                14.0%
 20%                                                                                                                                            12.0%                11.0%
                                                                                                                                                10.0%                           9.0%
 15%                                                                                                                                                                                         8.0% 7.9%
                                                                                                                                                 8.0%
                  10%                                                                                                                                                                                                   5.7%
 10%                            8%          8%                                                                                                   6.0%
                                                     7%                                                                                                                                                                          4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7%
                                                                 6%        5%                                                                    4.0%
  5%                                                                                 2%                     2%             2%                    2.0%
  0%                                                                                                                                             0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                      Tobacco
                                                                                                                                                          Refinery

                                                                                                                                                                                 Vanaspati

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Leather

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Food

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Paper

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Power
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Transport
                                                                                                                                                                                              Cable & Elec.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Automobile
                                                     Chemicals
                  Real Estate

                                            Sugar

                                                                                     Textile Comp.

                                                                                                            Banks
                                                                 Weaving

                                                                           Misc.
                                Modarabas

                                                                                                                           Fertilizer
       Spinning
        Textile

                                                                 Textile

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Parts

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research                                                                                                                  Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Arif Habib Limited                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           7
PSX Performance Jul 2021

Regional Portfolio Investment
 Foreigners continued to remained net seller for another month. Top outflows were
  witnessed in South Korea (USD 4,224mn), Taiwan (USD 3,566mn) and India (USD
  1,338mn). Meanwhile in Pakistan, foreigners remained net sellers as well, selling
  equities worth USD 28mn in the month of Jul’21. Outflows were observed in i) Others
  (USD 30.8mn), ii) Food (USD 2.4mn), iii) Banks (USD 1.8mn), iv) Textile (USD
  1.2mn) and v) Power (USD 0.1mn). Whereas inflows were witnessed in i) Cement
  sector (USD 2.4mn), ii) E&P (USD 1.9mn) and iii) OGMCs sector (USD 1.7mn).

Fig: Local investors portfolio investment during Jul’21                                                                                                               Fig: Sector wise FIPI during Jul’21
(USD mn)                                                                 Net Buy | (Sell)                                                                                                                                        Net Buy | (Sell)

  10                                                                                                                                                                  (USD mn)
           8.3
                           7.6                                                                                                                                              5.0               2.4            1.9         1.7      1.5
   8                                               6.9                                                                                                                                                                                            0.2
                                                                 6.1                                                                                                          -
   6

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Others
                                                                                                                                                                                                               E&P
                                                                                                                                                                                              Cement

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Power

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Banks

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Textile
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         OGMCs

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Fertilizer
                                                                                       4.3
                                                                                                                                                                            (5.0)
   4
                                                                                                                         1.6                                           (10.0)                                                                                                 (1.2)
   2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (0.1)                          (1.8) (2.4)
                                                                                                                                                                       (15.0)
  -
                                                                 Banks | DFI

                                                                                              Other Org.
            Insurance

                               Companies

                                                   Funds

                                                                                                                         Individuals

                                                                                                                                            NBFC

                                                                                                                                                         Brokers

                                                                                                                                                                       (20.0)
  (2)

  (4)                                                                                                                                                                  (25.0)
                                                                                                                                           0.6
  (6)                                                                                                                                                                  (30.0)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (30.8)
  (8)                                                                                                                                                 -7.0             (35.0)

Source (s): NCCPL, AHL Research                                                                                                                                       Source (s): NCCPL, AHL Research

Fig: Sector wise LIPI during Jul’21                                                                                                                                Fig: Regional Portfolio Investment during Jul’21
                                                    Net Buy | (Sell)                                                                                               (USD mn)
(USD mn)
                                                                                                                                                                                    209                106
 35.0    30.8                                                                                                                                                           -
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Pakistan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Thailand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sri Lanka

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       India

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Taiwan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        South Korea
                                                                                                                                                                                    Vietnam

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Indonesia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Philippines

 30.0
                                                                                                                                                                     (500)
 25.0
                                                                                                                                                                   (1,000)
 20.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                (29)
                                                                                                                                                                   (1,500)                                                       (40)                           (241)           (500)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (151)                                         (1,338)
 15.0
                        2.4                                                                                                                                        (2,000)
 10.0
                                                      1.2                                                                                                          (2,500)
  5.0                                      1.8                   0.1
                                                                                                           (1.5)                                                   (3,000)
   -
           Others

                        Food

                                           Banks

                                                                 Power

                                                                                                                                            E&P

                                                                                                                                                    Cement
                                                                                                            Technology
                                                       Textile

                                                                                 Fertilizer

                                                                                                                                   OGMCs

 (5.0)                                                                                                                                                             (3,500)
                                                                                                                                                                   (4,000)                                                                                                                                      (3,566)
                                                                                                                                           (1.9)
                                                                               (0.2)                                         (1.7)                 (2.4)            (4,500)                                                                                                                                                    (4,224)
Source (s): NCCPL, AHL Research                                                                                                                                    Source (s): Bloomberg, NCCPL, AHL Research

Arif Habib Limited                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8
PSX Performance Jul 2021

Outlook and Recommendation
We expect the market to perform well in the upcoming month on account of i) Robust
earnings growth forecast of cement, steel and allied sectors amid strong cyclical
demand driven by historic high PSDP allocation and focus on Naya Pakistan Housing
scheme, ii) Beginning of result season which will keep specific companies in limelight,
iii) Expectation of an Auto, Textile and Refinery policy, iv) Downwards sticky oil prices
supporting the E&P sector, and v) Stable policy rate to sustain economic growth.
However, pressure on external account, rising infection ratio of novel coronavirus in
Pakistan and uptick in CPI in the upcoming months are downside risks to the index
performance.
The KSE-100 index is currently trading at a PER of 6.7x (2021) compared to Asia Pac
regional average of 15.8x and offering a DY of ~6.7% versus ~2.4% offered by the
region. Our top picks are LUCK, ENGRO, OGDC, PPL, FFC, HUBC, SNGP, HBL,
MCB, NML, ILP, PSO, EPCL, PTL and UNITY.

Arif Habib Limited                                                                          9
PSX Performance Jul 2021

World Indices Performance
Table: World's Major Stock Market Performance (USD based return, Jul'21)
Sr#        Country        Index Description           Index Return (%)     Sr#   Country       Index Description            Index Return (%)
1          Lebanon        Blom Stock Index             962        8.7      39    Ukraine       Pfts Index                    525         0.7
2          Estonia        Omx Tallinn Omxt            1,772       7.1      40    Poland        Wig 20                       2,253        0.7
3          UAE            Adx General Index           7,318       7.1      41    UK            Ftse 100 Index               7,032        0.6
4          Turkey         Bist 100 Index              1,393       6.2      42    Bahrain       Bb All Share Index           1,597        0.6
5          Luxembourg     Luxembourg Luxx Index       1,654       6.0      43    Singapore     Straits Times Index Sti      3,167        0.5
6          Finland        Omx Helsinki Index         13,059       5.4      44    Greece        Athex Composite Share Pr      888         0.5
7          Czech Republic Prague Stock Exch Index     1,209       5.0      45    Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index      11,013        0.3
8          Denmark        Omx Copenhagen 20 Index     1,735       4.9      46    India         S&P Bse Sensex Index        52,587        0.2
9          Argentina      S&P Merval Tr Ars          66,005       4.8      47    Germany       Dax Index                   15,544        0.2
10         Egypt          Egx 30 Index               10,742       4.6      48    Romania       Bucharest Bet Index         11,849        0.1
11         Lithuania      Omx Vilnius Omxv             965        4.5      49    Canada        S&P/Tsx Composite Index     20,288        0.1
12         Bangladesh     Dse Broad Index             6,425       4.4      50    Portugal      Psi 20 Index                 5,027       (0.1)
13         Iceland        Omx Iceland All-Share Pr    2,371       4.4      51    Qatar         Qe Index                    10,753       (0.1)
14         Sweden         Omx Stockholm 30 Index      2,370       4.2      52    Serbia        Belex15 Index                 776        (0.2)
15         Slovenia       Slovenian Blue Chip Idx     1,169       4.0      53    Jordan        Amman Se General Index       2,088       (0.5)
16         Sri Lanka      Sri Lanka Colombo All Sh    8,120       3.7      54    New Zealand S&P Nzx All Index              2,055       (0.5)
17         Switzerland    Swiss Market Index         12,117       3.6      55    Morocco       Madex Free Float Index       9,995       (0.6)
18         Netherland     Aex-Index                    754        3.5      56    Oman          Msm30 Index                  4,030       (0.8)
19         Mauritius      Mauritius Stock Exchange    1,917       3.2      57    Australia     S&P/Asx 200 Index            7,393       (1.0)
20         USA            Nasdaq 100 Stock Indx      14,960       2.8      58    Spain         Ibex 35 Index                8,676       (1.6)
21         Austria        Austrian Traded Atx Indx    3,481       2.4      59    Dubai         Dfm General Index            2,766       (1.6)
22         Bulgaria       Sofix Index                  570        2.3      60    Croatia       Croatia Zagreb Crobex        1,948       (1.7)
23         USA            S&P 500 Index               4,395       2.3      61    Russia        Rts Index                    1,626       (1.7)
24         Indonesia      Jakarta Composite Index     6,070       2.1      62    Norway        Obx Price Index               533        (1.9)
25         South Africa   Ftse/Jse Africa All Shr    68,971       2.1      63    Taiwan        Taiwan Taiex Index          17,247       (3.2)
26         Ireland        Iseqall-Share               8,325       1.9      64    Pakistan      Kse-100 Index               47,055       (3.6)
27         Belgium        Bel 20 Index                4,200       1.9      65    Malaysia      Ftse Bursa Malaysia Klci     1,495       (4.1)
28         Kenya          Nairobi All Share            178        1.8      66    Japan         Nikkei 225                  27,284       (4.1)
29         France         Cac 40 Index                6,613       1.7      67    South Korea Kospi Index                    3,202       (4.6)
30         Mexico         S&P/Bmv Ipc                50,868       1.7      68    Chile         S&P/Clx Ipsa (Clp) Tr        4,252       (5.6)
31         Ghana          Gse Composite Index         2,717       1.6      69    Vietnam       Ho Chi Minh Stock Index      1,310       (6.7)
32         Nigeria        Nigeria Stck Exc All Shr   38,547       1.6      70    Thailand      Stock Exch Of Thai Index     1,522       (6.7)
33         Latvia         Omx Riga Omxr               1,238       1.5      71    Brazil        Brazil Ibovespa Index      121,801       (6.8)
34         USA            Dow Jones Indus. Avg       34,935       1.3      72    Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Kase Stock Ex        3,087       (7.4)
35         Hungary        Budapest Stock Exch Indx   48,611       1.2      73    China         Csi 300 Index                4,811       (8.0)
36         Italy          Ftse Mib Index             25,363       1.1      74    Hong Kong     Hang Seng Index             25,961      (10.0)
37         Tunisia        Tunis Se Tunindex           7,305       0.8      75    Philippines   Psei - Philippine Se Idx     6,270      (11.2)
38         Europe         Euro Stoxx 50 Pr            4,089       0.7
Source (s): Bloomberg, AHL Research

    Arif Habib Limited                                                                                                                          10
PSX Performance Jul 2021

Disclaimer
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) is (are) principally responsible for preparation of this report. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal
views of the analyst(s) about the subject security (ies) or sector (or economy), and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related
to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. In addition, we currently do not have any interest (financial or otherwise) in the subject security
(ies). Furthermore, compensation of the Analyst(s) is not determined nor based on any other service(s) that AHL is offering. Analyst(s) are not subject to the supervision or control of any
employee of AHL’s non-research departments, and no personal engaged in providing non-research services have any influence or control over the compensatory evaluation of the
Analyst(s).
Equity Research Ratings
Arif Habib Ltd. (AHL) uses three rating categories, depending upon return form current market price, with Target period as Dec’21 for Target Price. In addition, return excludes all type of
taxes. For more details, kindly refer the following table;

 Rating                           Description
 BUY                             Upside of subject security(ies) is more than +10% from last closing of market price(s)
 HOLD                            Upside of subject security(ies) is between -10% and +10% from last closing of market price(s)
 SELL                            Upside of subject security(ies) is less than -10% from last closing of market price(s)

Equity Valuation Methodology
AHL Research uses the following valuation technique(s) to arrive at the period end target prices;
    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
    Dividend Discounted Model (DDM)
    Sum of the Parts (SoTP)
    Justified Price to Book (JPTB)
    Reserved Base Valuation (RBV)

Risks
The following risks may potentially impact our valuations of subject security (ies);
                Market risk
                Interest Rate Risk
                Exchange Rate (Currency) Risk

This document has been prepared by Research analysts at Arif Habib Ltd. (AHL). This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This
publication is intended only for distribution to the clients of the Company who are assumed to be reasonably sophisticated investors that understand the risks involved in investing in
equity securities. The information contained herein is based upon publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable. While every care was taken to ensure accuracy and objectivity,
AHL does not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. In particular, the report takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation
and particular needs of investors. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with
this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. AHL reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from
time to time. However, AHL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. AHL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client
and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This document is provided for
assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for any investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each
recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his or her own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. AHL or any of its affiliates shall not
be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may be arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
© 2021 Arif Habib Ltd.: Corporate Member of the Pakistan Stock Exchanges. No part of this publication may be copied, reproduced, stored or disseminated in any form or by any means
without the prior written consent of Arif Habib Ltd.

 Disclosure required under Research Analyst Regulations, 2015:
 In order to avoid any conflict of interest, we hereby disclosed that;

 Arif Habib Limited (AHL) has shareholding in OGDC, AKBL, NBP and PSO.

Arif Habib Limited                                                                                                                                                                       11
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