Master's Thesis The Upsurge of Ethno-Nationalism and Ethiopia's Fragile Democracy
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Master’s Thesis
The Upsurge of Ethno-Nationalism and
Ethiopia’s Fragile Democracy
1ACKNOWLEDGMENT
There are several individuals and institutions who supported me throughout my study period
that deserves acknowledgment. Though it is difficult to mention all in this piece, I would like
to reflect on some of them.
First, I would like to thank my supervisor, Jonas Ewald (Ph.D.), who carefully guided me
throughout my research. His invaluable guidance and encouragement has not only helped me
to successfully complete the thesis but also has impacted my scholarly faculty and immensely
taught me how scientific research can be conducted
Second, this thesis has been produced during my scholarship period at Linnaeus University,
which was funded by the Swedish Institute. I would like to thank the Swedish Institute for the
funding and for all the support I received during my studies. Without your financial support,
it would have been inconceivable for me to come here and study at Linnaeus University in
Sweden.
Thirdly, I am also indebted to thank my home university (Assosa University) for giving me
paid study leave throughout my study time.
Last but not least, I would like to thank all my parents and friends for your moral and
material support during my study time. I would, particularly, like to single out my wife
Kassanesh Asfaw, my son Shinon Tsegaye and daughter Hermon Tsegaye; your love and
encouragement have always been with me in all those days.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH ALL!!
Tsegaye Birhanu
Linnaeus University, Vaxjo, Sweden
May 2021
iTable of Contents Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENT.......................................................................................................................... i
ACRONYMS ......................................................................................................................................... iv
ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................... vi
CHAPTER ONE ..................................................................................................................................... 1
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 1
1.1. Background of the Study......................................................................................................... 1
1.2. Problem Statement .................................................................................................................. 3
1.3. Justification and Relevance of the Study ................................................................................ 4
1.4. Objective and Research questions........................................................................................... 5
1.5. Limitation of the Study ........................................................................................................... 5
1.6. Organization of the Study ....................................................................................................... 6
CHAPTER TWO .................................................................................................................................... 7
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...................................................... 7
2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 7
2.2. The Debate on the nexus between Ethno-nationalism and Democracy ....................................... 7
2.3. Ethno-nationalism in other Parts of the World ............................................................................ 9
2.4. Ethno-nationalism and Democratization in Ethiopia ................................................................. 10
CHAPTER THREE .............................................................................................................................. 14
CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................... 14
3.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 14
3.2. Important Concepts .................................................................................................................... 14
3.3. Theories of Ethnicity.................................................................................................................. 16
CHAPTER FOUR ................................................................................................................................. 18
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ................................................................................ 18
4.1. Research Methodology .............................................................................................................. 18
4.1.1. Methods of Data Collection ................................................................................................ 18
4.1.2. Method of Data Analysis .................................................................................................... 19
4.2. Research Design and Line of Reasoning ................................................................................... 20
4.3. Ethical Considerations ............................................................................................................... 20
CHAPTER FIVE .................................................................................................................................. 22
FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS.............................................................................................................. 22
5.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 22
5.2. Competing Nationalisms in Ethiopia .................................................................................... 23
5.2.1. Pan-Ethiopianism .......................................................................................................... 23
5.2.2. Ethno-nationalism in context ........................................................................................ 24
5.3. The Upsurge of Ethno-nationalism and its Impact on Democracy in Ethiopia..................... 26
5.3.1. Democracy in Peril: Protests, Violent Conflicts and the War in Tigray ............................. 27
5.3.2. Democracy in Peril: The Postponement of Election and its Repercussion ......................... 29
ii5.4. The Underlying Factors for the Upsurge of Ethno-nationalism and Violent Conflicts in
Ethiopia ............................................................................................................................................. 30
5.4.1. Historical Narratives Inculcating Animosity, Mistrust and Ethnic Rivalry .................. 30
5.4.2. Politicization and Institutionalization of Ethnicity ....................................................... 32
5.4.3. Economic Setbacks- Unemployment and Inflation....................................................... 34
5.4.4. Weak institutions................................................................................................................. 35
5.4.5. Regional and International Dynamics ................................................................................. 38
5.5. The way Forward .................................................................................................................. 39
5.5.1. Institution Building ....................................................................................................... 40
5.5.3. Inclusive Dialogue ....................................................................................................... 41
5.5.4. Security Sector Reform ................................................................................................. 43
5.5.5. Inclusive Economic Development ...................................................................................... 44
5.5.6. Strengthening Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) ............................................................ 45
5.5.7. International Support........................................................................................................... 46
CHAPTER SIX ..................................................................................................................................... 49
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................................. 49
REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 52
Annex: List Interviews .......................................................................................................................... 63
iiiACRONYMS
AFP- Agence France Press
AU- African Union
CADRD- Center for Advancement of Rights and Democracy
CPI- Corruption Perception Index
CSO- Civil Society Organization
DW- Doche Welle
EHRC- Ethiopian Human Rights Commission
ELF-Eritrean Liberation Front
ENA- Ethiopian News Agency
ENDF- Ethiopian National Defence Force
EPRDF- Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front
EU- European Union
FDRE- Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
GDP- Gross Domestic Product
GERD- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
GoE- Government of Ethiopia
HOA- Horn of Africa
ICG- International Crisis Group
IDEA- Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
IOM- International Organization for Migration
IPSS-Institute of Peace and Security Studies
ivKI- Key Informant
NDI- National Democracy Institute
NGO- Non-Governmental Organization
OFC- Oromo Federalist Congress
OLA- Oromo Liberation Army
OLF- Oromo Liberation Front
ONLF- Ogaden National Liberation Front
SDG- Sustainable Development Goal
TPLF- Tigrian Liberation Front
UCDP- Uppsala Conflict Data Program
UN- United Nations
USA- United States of America
VOA- Voice of America
vABSTRACT
By exploring the upsurge of the new wave of ethno-nationalism and its effect on institutions
of democracy in Ethiopia, this study attempts to contribute to the study of fragile democracy
in highly divided states. Methodologically, it is qualitative research where key informant
interviews and literature review were employed to collect the needed data. Nine participants
including researchers, analysts, and journalists participated in the key informant interview.
Ethiopia, the second-most populous African country, is a multi-national ancient country with
a long history of statehood. The country’s fragile nature of democracy is suffering from
shrinking political space. The national election was postponed twice, and the popular
political parties withdrawn from the rescheduled election. Unfortunately, this was
accompanied by the unfolding ethnic conflicts in different parts of the country and it is
reported that election will not be conducted in places under conflict. These have
overshadowed Ethiopia’s transition to democracy which was hailed across the country and
beyond in 2018 and 19. The conventional wisdom employed often in elaborating challenges
to democratization has been pointing fingers at the incumbent regime. This research,
however, argues that though the incumbent government, as the dominant actor should take its
share of responsibility, the problem in Ethiopia is beyond that. The deeply entrenched
institutionalization of ethnicity; contradictory interpretation of historical narratives;
accumulated age-old grievances, and polarized relations among the actors are the factors for
the crisis that has been threatening to tear the country apart. The role of economic
inequality, corruption, soaring inflation and unemployment have been significant by creating
enabling environment for the mobilization of lumpen youth for violent conflict. Apart from
that, due to the country’s strategic location in the volatile Horn of African region and the
hydro-politics, the regional and international political dynamics have also been impacting
peace and development in Ethiopia. This study argues bailing the country out of this crisis
and preventing potential disintegration needs deepening democracy and a change of political
culture at the national level. Strengthening the role of CSOs and enhancing support from the
international community will also be decisive.
Keywords: Ethiopia, ethno-nationalism, democracy, ethnicity, democratization
viCHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background of the Study
At the time of this study, Ethiopia was at a crossroads. At the national level, putting
democracy in peril, the national election was postponed twice; the security and human rights
situation is deteriorating, the ethnic-based conflict in the country was unfolding (Human
Rights Watch, 2021); the parliament categorized the Tigrian People Liberation Front (TPLF)
and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA1) as terrorist organizations; popular political parties
withdrawn from the rescheduled election (The Reporter, 8 May 2021). Many lost hopes and
argued the window of opportunity opened for potential dialogue and peaceful resolution of
conflict is lost and gone. At the regional level, the conflict in Ethiopia was internationalized
with the direct involvement of foreign powers (BBC, 27 January 2021). In addition, the
tripartite negotiation among the riparian countries on the filling and operation of the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is stalled (ENA, July 15, 2021). Egypt threatening no
country can use a drop of its share of Nile water (Aljazeera, 31 March 2021; France 24, 3
May 2021) citing the 1929 and 1959 colonial treaties to which Ethiopia was not a party
(Yakob, 2011). The international community was in dilemma of which policy to adopt and
what to do regarding Ethiopia. All these issues happening in the country are directly or
indirectly related to the fragility of democracy and the upsurge of ethno-nationalism. This can
best be studied in a multi-level multi-dimensional analysis which needs a thorough
examination of its local, national, regional and international dimensions.
The rising nationalism is not limited to Ethiopia, rather it is a global phenomenon impacting
local and global governance. According to Csergo (2018), since the 2010s nationalism is
enduring an unprecedented rise at the global level. It emerges when identity questions turn
into political movements (Fukayama, 2018). Evidence from literature reveals that the type
and impact of nationalism differ depending upon the nature and composition of the state (see
chapter 2, for more details). Multi-ethnic states are often the states most impacted by
competing nationalisms. Horwitz (1998) argued that identity in general and ethnicity, in
particular, is a powerful force in the politics of multi-ethnic states with its repercussions on
democracy and peace and development.
1
The Oromo Liberation Army sometimes called Shane is an armed group, led by Jal Mero operating in Oromia
region and fighting against the incumbent regime.
1More than 90 % of the world states are ethnically diverse by their nature (Yonathan, 2010;
Collier, 1998; Stanovcic, 1992). Of course, ethnic diversity by itself is not a problem. If
properly handled, it may enrich the country, however, its tendency to find expression in open
conflicts presents a challenge to many ethnically divided countries (Stanovcic, 1992). Most of
the conflicts in these states are usually horizontal, between and among ethnic groups (Wig
and Kromrey, 2018). That means the peace, democratization, and overall development of
these countries depend on the way they can effectively manage their diversity. Ethno-
nationalism is often considered as one of the barriers that directly or indirectly hinder the
peace, development, and territorial integrity of many multi-national states. The proliferation
of quest for autonomy, secessionist moves, and fragmentation in local and international
politics shows the apparent rise of nationalism in the post-cold war global order (Annett,
2001; Stanovcic, 1992).
In many multi-ethnic countries, in different parts of the world, ethnicity was often politicized
through the emergence of ethno-nationalism. Historically, ethno-nationalism created an
ethnic rivalry and violent conflicts which disintegrated many countries. For instance, Monsell
(2017) argued that between 1989 and 1992, Yugoslavia descended into a series of ethnic-
based civil conflicts, which disintegrated the country into smaller pieces. The country had
also experienced the worst ethnic cleansing in Europe since the Holocaust which could be
ascribed to ethnonationalism in the country (Ibid). In a similar vein, the Union of Soviet
Socialist Republic (USSR), and other countries in Eastern Europe had similar experiences
which ended up with disintegration (Stanovcic, 1992). In east Africa, the emergence of
Eritrea and South Sudan in 1991 and 2011 respectively seceding from Ethiopia and Sudan
was also ascribed to ethnonationalism and subsequent armed struggle which took decades.
Apart from the disintegration and fragmentation of states, the rise of nationalist leaders and
regimes is becoming a common phenomenon in contemporary global politics. The
ascendance of nationalist leaders and political parties can be considered as a manifestation of
the global rise of nationalism (Csergo, 2018). The ascendance of Donald Trump to the
presidency in the US, the British’s withdrawal from the European Union, the secessionist
referendum in Scotland, quests for autonomy in Spain, Iraq, Nigeria, ethnic conflicts in
Sudan and South Sudan, and other countries reveals the surge of nationalism at the global
level. Francis Fukuyama in his thought-provoking work published in 2018, eloquently argued
that the rise of identity politics threatens developed liberal democracies as well as developing
2fragile democracies. He further noted that “the world should work to have a more universal
understanding of human dignity otherwise society will doom into conflict” (Fukayama,
2018:10).
From the above discussion, it can be understood that civic-nationalism and ethno-nationalism
are global phenomena impacting local and global governance. This research, however, aims
to contribute to the study of fragile democracy in highly divided states by examining the
recent upsurge of ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia. Ethiopia, a multi-ethnic and the second most
populous African country (World Bank, 2019), is, currently, in a crisis of competing
nationalism. Ethnically divided powerful regional states in the country are at loggerheads
threatening to tear the country apart (ICG, 2021). The upsurge of ethno-nationalism and
subsequent violent conflict, particularly, in the Tigray region (the northern part of the
country) and Benishangul Gumuz region (in western Ethiopia) have been causing thousands
of deaths and internal displacements. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP, 2019)
report indicates that from the year 2015-2019, 1822 people died in Ethiopia due to violent
conflict. This is without including figures for the deadliest year of 2020. On the other hand,
the International Crisis Group (ICG, 2021) report indicates that the violent conflict that
erupted on November 4, 2020, in the northern part of Ethiopia displaced more than a million
internally while 50,000 fled to Sudan. Generally, ethnic identity-based politics remained the
mover and shaker of local politics. As a result, I argue Ethiopia presents an important case to
study where the rise of ethnonationalism has been impacting institutions of democracy and
democratization.
Having this general backdrop, this research attempted to analyse how the competing
nationalisms in the country are causing havoc to the very survival of the Ethiopian state. The
research aims to explore the recent upsurge of ethnonationalism and its repercussion on the
already fragile democracy in the country. Finally, the research attempts to pinpoint future
scenarios and identify the possible ways to deepen democracy in ethnically divided societies.
1.2. Problem Statement
As a matter of historical fact, Ethiopia’s political liberalization in the last four years has
coincided with the upsurge of a new wave of ethnonationalism and violent ethnic conflict in
different parts of the country (Semir, 2019; IPSSS, 2020). Bado (2014) argued that in the
presence of ethnonationalism, political liberalization tends to transform itself into a
competition ground between indomitable ethnic identities. This is apparently happening in
3Ethiopia where the opened political space had, unfortunately, served as an enabling ground to
competing ethnonationalism in the country. The nexus and compatibility between
ethnonationalism, democracy, and peace and development is contested (Beissinger, 2008). Of
course, ethno-nationalism is a two-sided sword which can be both a product of or contributor
to fragile democracy. Csergo (2018) argued civic nationalism is more democratic than
ethnonationalism which often bases on exclusive ethnic cleavages in society. On the other
hand, some writers (Beissinger, 2002; Jalata, 2001) consider ethnonationalism as an
important contributor to democracy and overall development. This is usually due to its
capability to easily mobilize protest against dictatorship which may end up installing a
democratic system.
Scholars and practitioners alike agree that democratization is a long process and a journey
without an end (Burnell, 2011) and full of ups and downs. According to Huntington (1991),
in some cases, it may face reversals. In the same vein, Ethiopia’s progress towards
democratization is also accompanied by several challenges that can be ascribed to local,
regional, and international factors. The upsurge of competing ethnonationalism accompanied
by polarized mainstream and social media activism has been the dominant factor which this
research wants to investigate. Until recently, Ethiopia was considered as a model for bringing
peace and development in a highly divided society (Monsell, 2017). After the end of the cold
war, for over a quarter of a century, the Ethiopian state managed to be politically and
economically stable country (Ibid) in the conflict-prone Horn of African region. In this
regard, Monsell (2017) further argued that since 1991, despite the ethnic state structure,
ethnic nationalism had not galvanized credible challenges to the centripetal forces. But in the
last few years, this argument manifestly failed to hold water as the country was engulfed by
violent inter-ethnic violence mobilized by the upsurge of a new wave of ethnonationalism in
the country.
1.3. Justification and Relevance of the Study
The researcher believes this research will be relevant for two main reasons. Firstly, it will
contribute to the attempt of filling the research gap in the existing literature. Evidence from
the review of the literature reveals that the upsurge of ethnonationalism and its impact on
peace and development in Ethiopia presents a unique case that deserves critical study. By
critically studying the case in Ethiopia, this research will contribute to the study of highly
divided fragile democracies.
4Secondly, this research will also have significance for policy decision-making at different
levels. Evidence shows that the recent political development occurring in Ethiopia has
received the attention of the international community. Ethiopia is an aid-dependent country
(Tadesse, 2021), receiving over 4 billion USD per year since 2016 (The World Bank Data,
2021). Multilateral and bilateral donor countries are in dilemma and reconsidering their
approach with Ethiopia. This study attempted to pinpoint the way the international
community can support the country’s development endeavor. This indicates that the
significance of this research will not only be expanding the knowledge horizon on the topic
but also will have significance for policy and practice.
1.4. Objective and Research questions
This research aims to explore the upsurge of ethnonationalism in Ethiopia and the
repercussion it has on the country’s democratization endeavor. The study also attempts to
identify future scenarios and pinpoint the way Ethiopia can deepen democracy.
The main research questions this study attempts to answer are:
• Why does ethnonationalism become prominent at the expense of pan-Ethiopianism in
the country?
• How is the upsurge of ethnonationalism hampering the country’s transition towards
democracy?
• How can the country transcend ethnonationalism and deepen democracy?
1.5. Limitation of the Study
This study is not without limitations. First, the project is designed to be conducted within a
very limited time and resources. All the methods and strategies are designed taking into
consideration these constraints. Concerning time, this research was conducted in ten weeks.
Second, in the literature review section (see chapter 2), it was indicated that due to the
recentness of the topic, there is scanty academic research on the recent upsurge of
ethnonationalism in Ethiopia. However, the topic under study is widely discussed in different
corners, media outlets, government, and international organization reports which immensely
helped this research as a source of data.
51.6. Organization of the Study
This research is organized into six chapters. The second chapter is devoted to a review of the
literature and positioning the thesis within the context of prior studies. The third chapter
discusses the conceptual/theoretical framework. This section helped the research to develop
the theoretical and analytical foundation of the thesis. Methodological toolkits employed to
collect and analyze data were enunciated in the fourth chapter. The fifth chapter presented the
major findings and analysis. Finally, in the sixth chapter, the conclusion and
recommendations drawn from the findings herald the culmination of the research.
6CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
2.1. Introduction
Ethno-nationalism remained one of the underlying factors for state formation. Evidence
reveals that in highly divided societies, ethno-nationalism is on the rise impacting
democratization and peace and development. As a result, the topic has received the attention
of scholars. To position the research problem within a context of related studies and guide the
study towards achieving its objective, this chapter attempts to review the available literature.
For the sake of this research, of course, at risk of simplification, I have categorized the
academic debate on the topic into three. The first category of literature discussed the nexus
between ethno-nationalism and democracy; the second category of the literature is about
ethno-nationalism in different parts of the world and finally, the third one discussed the
literature on ethno-nationalism and democratization in Ethiopia.
2.2. The Debate on the nexus between Ethno-nationalism and Democracy
Writings on democratization indicate that there is a nexus between democracy and peace
which are, particularly, in divided societies impacted by ethno-nationalism (Annett, 2001;
Horwitz, 1998; Collier, 19998; Agbu, 2004). The controversy, however, remains on whether
their relationship is compatible or contradictory (Agbu, 2004). Some scholars argued that
their relationship is complicated, multifaceted, and full of tensions and paradoxes (Lecours
and Moreno, 2010). Depending upon various contexts, ethno-nationalism can either
contribute to or impede democratization and peace and development. This reveals the
presence of two-sided debate on the issue.
The first group of scholars focused on the tension and contradiction between ethno-
nationalism, democracy, and peace and development. They argued that in fragile
democracies, ethnic cleavages are prone to violent conflicts which can negatively impact
democratization and overall development (Annett, 2001; Horwitz, 1998; Collier, 19998). In a
highly divided society, political liberalization may unleash hitherto oppressed groups to
mobilize their respective ethnic groups to rebel (Agbu, 2004). Ethno-nationalists often misuse
the opened political space to inculcate the sentiment of intolerance or exclusion which are in
clear contradiction with democracy (Lecours and Moreno, 2010). In such circumstances,
ethno-nationalism may end up spoiling peace and development in a country. Pelege (2010)
7also argued that in highly divided societies, there is inherent tension and incompatibility
between democracy and ethno-nationalism. Democracy aims to guarantee equal rights to all
citizens with a mechanism for protection to minorities but ethno-nationalism struggles to
exclusively enhance the position of a particular group (Ibid).
Paul Collier (2019), pointed that at the time of transition, liberalization and election
exacerbate violence and increase the risks of reverting to conflict. He noted that instead of
democracy, growth and economic recovery will be important for peace and development in
fragile and post-conflict states (Collier, 2019). In a similar vein, Csergo (2018) has also
argued that Ethno-nationalism undermines the prospect for inter-ethnic peace and democratic
development in multi-ethnic countries. Ethno-nationalism “tempts politicians to play ethnic
cards” (Beissinger, 2002: 90) either to win elections or consolidate their power. They use
control over the economy or mass media to inculcate exclusionary nationalism in the people.
(ibid).
In Political Science, democratization and the conditions that may lead to democratic
consolidation or backsliding are well articulated. The most renowned author in this field is
Samuel Huntington with his ground-breaking work “The Third Wave: Democratization in the
Late 20th Century” which was published in 1991. According to Huntington (1991); Hagaard
and Kaufman (2006), weak institutions, and social and political polarization will lead to
democratic backsliding. This means ethno-nationalism which more often than not ends in the
polarization of ethnic relations will be a setback for democracy and overall development.
Generally speaking, authors in this group vehemently argued that politicization of ethnicity
by political leaders and elites results in polarized institutions that drain trust and culture of
tolerance among ethnic groups that undermine democracy and overall development
(Beissinger, 2002; Lecours and Moreno, 2010).
On the other hand, there are a group of scholars who indicated the compatibility and mutually
reinforcing relationship between ethno-nationalism, democratization, and peace and
development. This group of scholars argued that ethno-nationalism and democracy can thrive
together and contribute to peace and development. For instance, Beissinger (2002) argued
that under the right conditions ethno-nationalism can work for the rise and consolidation of
democracy. Politically mobilized ethnicity and democracy can go together (Ibid). Ethno-
nationalism is also understood as a movement for liberation and emancipation by ousting
foreign rulers or restructuring oppressive regimes (Jalata, 2001). Putting in other words,
8ethno-nationalism is associated with emancipation and the fight against colonialism (Ibid). It
challenges authoritarian rule, serves as a glue to society, and may install a democratic system.
Ethno-nationalism speaks for freedom, equality and galvanizes public support which makes it
compatible with democracy. Under such circumstances, it can be compatible with and
contribute to democracy.
There is ample evidence where democracy blossoms in the presence of ethnic diversity. India
presents a good example (Beissinger, 2002). On the other hand, there are homogenous
countries where seeds of democracy struggling to germinate. For instance, Somalia a nation-
state struggling towards transitioning to democracy presents a good example. There is no
doubt in the assertion that democratization can be an important condition for development. It
can be a solution for many potential conflicts by reducing the risk of violence through
enhancing the capacity of institutions to prevent and resolve conflicts (Collier, 19989).
2.3. Ethno-nationalism in other Parts of the World
As it was indicated earlier in this research, ethno-nationalism is a global phenomenon
impacting local and global governance. As a result, the topic was studied in different parts of
the world. Most importantly, the studies conducted in eastern Europe and some African
countries are worth mentioning for their significance to the topic under study. Assefa Jalata
(2001) has indicated that the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, dismantling of
apartheid in South Africa, the secessions of Eritrea from Ethiopia in 1991, and South Sudan
from Sudan in 2011 are all ascribed to the role ethno-nationalism played in liberation
struggles. This means, the assertion that stressed in multi-ethnic states, ethno-nationalism
may endanger the right of minorities and at worst may put the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of the state in question (Stanovcic, 1992) holds water. Research has also indicated
that, despite disintegrating bigger states, ethno-nationalism has also contributed to the
consolidation of democracy. Successful democracies that emerged out of the ashes of the
USSR highly depended on ethnic nationalism to install democratic regimes (Beissenger,
2002). According to Beissenger (2002), democratization in the Baltic region, for instance in
Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania became stable because the polish speaking and Russian-
speaking minorities fairly integrated into the newly configured political system which
prevented ethnic violence. Experience from these countries indicates that the stability and
continued existence of the state depend on the ability of the system to integrate all sections of
society.
9African countries have another experience. The incompatibility between political
liberalization and ethno-nationalism during transition periods was widely used as an excuse
to put in place military regimes or one-party rules in the continent mainly in the 1960s and
70s (Osaghae, 1999). This logic was used by one-party regimes of Daniel Arap Moi of Kenya
and Omar Bonga of Gabon among prominent one-party rule proponents of African leaders
(Ibid). Currently, most of the conflicts are between ethnic groups rather than with the
government (Wig and Kromrey, 2018). For instance, the case in South Sudan shows that
ethno-nationalism will not always end in installing a democratic system which they used as
the justifiable cause of their struggle to mobilize the people.
After seceding from Sudan and Ethiopia, South Sudan and Eritrea, respectively, are both
ended in a crisis of democracy. In Eritrea, thirty years of war which was culminated in
establishing an independent state has failed to deliver neither liberty nor prosperity (Gebru,
2009). The country is under an authoritarian regime without an election and regime change
since independence. On the other hand, South Sudan is in ethnic conflict since its secession
from Sudan. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) Report revealed that since
2013 over 400,000 people have died with 4.1 million people displaced in search of safety in
the country as well as in neighboring countries (IOM, 2019). According to the Fragile States
Index Global Data (2020), South Sudan was ranked as the third most fragile state in the
world. This tells its own story about the situation, where promises of ethno-nationalism as a
bearer of emancipation, hope and aspirations of bringing peace, democracy and prosperity
faded away immediately after secession.
2.4. Ethno-nationalism and Democratization in Ethiopia
The review of available literature indicates the presence of many scholarships produced on
ethno-nationalism and democratization in Ethiopia. For the sake of this research, I
categorized ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia into two. First, ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia has
followed armed struggle with the establishment of centripetal and centrifugal armed groups.
Before 1991, this was considered as the only available way, as there was no room for
opposition parties to function under the then imperial and dictatorial regimes of Ethiopia
(Asnake, 2011). The second dimension of ethno-nationalism in the country has used another
track where ethnic political parties and media outlets were legally allowed to function in the
country in post-1991 Ethiopia. With further polarization of ethnic relations in the country,
ethno-nationalism is arguably at its peak (Semir, 2019) where civil protest and rebellion
10organized along Ethnic lines were used as the best strategy to fight injustice in the country.
This one is recent by its nature and received more attention from the media but less from
academia.
The first type of ethno-nationalism is old by its nature that dates back to the mid-20th
century. As a result, it has received much attention from academia. For instance, Jalata (2001)
has studied Oromo nationalism and their armed struggle against the central government in
Ethiopia. He argued that the Oromo nationalism is for emancipation and liberation which,
according to Jalata (2001) had never contradicted with ideals of democracy. The central role
of elites in articulating the agenda, mobilizing the mass was emphasized by many authors.
For instance, Merrera (2004) argued that the political elite in Ethiopia has played a significant
role by “synthesizing the ideology of nationalism, setting the agenda, organizing the
nationalist movement” (2004:28).
In contrary to the aforementioned points, Liam Monsell in a work published in 2017 argued
that ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia has not challenged national unity and sense of
belongingness in the country. According to Monsell (2017), ethno-nationalism and peace
development are thriving where the country remained relatively peaceful for around a quarter
of a century in the conflict-prone region of the Horn of Africa. The weakness in this study
and argument is its inability to examine where the country is heading, how ethnicity is being
politicized and institutionalized which in long run creates more problems than it solves. Of
course, the time this study was done was immediately after the death of Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi. At that time, Ethiopia was under a strong big state with a clear ideological
orientation tilting towards the southeast Asian Developmental state model. At that time, the
country had depoliticized society. My argument here is had Monsell wrote this research after
2018 he might not conclude that ethno-nationalism is not creating a problem in Ethiopia
which it has been creating in the Balkan region.
Challenges to democratization in Ethiopia have received much attention among scholars that
studied Ethiopian politics. The works of (Clapam, 2004 and Merera, 2012;) are worth
mentioning in this regard. Merera (2012) has raised how non-competitive election and the
emergence of electoral authoritarianism negatively impacted the country’s attempt of
deepening democracy. On the other hand, Clapam (2004) has stressed that culture, structural
problems, and short experience of democracy remained the dominant challenges for
Ethiopia’s democratization. On the other hand, Mengisteab (2001) associated
11democratization in Ethiopia with the federal state structure which was for the first time
adopted in the country in 1991. He indicated that though in theory, ethnic-based federalism
called for devolution of power, in reality, the state remained under the centralized rule where
the strained ethnic relation and call for more autonomy were not answered.
Thirdly, there are very few works that paid attention to the role of non-governmental actors
(Asnake, 2011; Salih et al, 2018; Semir, 2019). Asnake in his work published in 2011,
approached the challenge to Ethiopia’s democracy from another point of view where he paid
attention to the often-overlooked point. He has studied how the problem within the opposition
political parties has been hampering Ethiopia’s move towards democracy. The most recent
and comprehensive view of democratization in Ethiopia was published by Friedrich Ebert
Stiftung edited by Salih et al in 2018. This report, which was a collection of conference
papers, has outlined how Ethiopia is transitioning to democracy. The most important point in
this report is it attempted to shed light on the role of non-state actors of democracy (Media,
CSOs, political parties). As this work was produced exactly during the transition, it had more
of a positive and optimistic view about developments in Ethiopia’s political trajectory. A
year later, as the honeymoon for Abiy Administration fading away, Semir (2019) has
discussed the drivers of the conflict in Ethiopia and how the fragility of institutions is playing
a role in it.
After reviewing available literature on Ethno-nationalism and democracy in Ethiopia I argue
that there is a gap in the existing literature that amplifies the significance of this research.
First, the visible research gap in this category of literature is they have not taken into account
the recent institutionalization of the competing ethnic-nationalism in the country
accompanied by polarized mainstream media and social media activism. This will be the
focus of this research.
Second, though some of the works discussed the challenges of democratic development in the
country, they were mostly old which can’t explain the current political dynamics in Ethiopia.
I argue that the second decade of the 21st century has offered unique opportunities and
challenges for democratization in Ethiopia. In this decade, two important and peaceful
transitions of power albeit within the same party occurred in the country which was not
anticipated by the above writers.
12The very few recent works that explored the recent situation in Ethiopia are either very short
reports or collection of conference papers which can serve as a very good steppingstone for
this research project. But still, the recent upsurge of ethno-nationalism accompanied by
polarized institutions and social media activism which will be the kernel of this research
project was not discussed in the existing literature. These reveal the relevance of this
research.
13CHAPTER THREE
CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
3.1. Introduction
Ethno-nationalism has received the attention of several theorists and scholars at different
times. Classical Marxists argued that ethno-nationalism will be inevitably replaced by class
consciousness (Jalata, 2001). In contrary to this, Karl Marx’s prediction, however, most
contemporary conflicts are characterized as ethno-nationalist conflicts rather than
revolutionary class struggles (Wimmer, 2013). Modernization theorists have also associated
ethno-nationalism with backwardness and argued that continued socio-economic
development will ultimately make it obsolete (Jalata, 2001). Proving the presumptions of
these old theories wrong, in reality, ethno-nationalism was neither replaced by class
consciousness nor become obsolete with sustained socio-economic progress. The growing
democratization and globalization have been, unfortunately, accompanied by an upsurge of
ethno-nationalism in the 21st century (Balbanis et al, 2001). This chapter attempts to shed
light on important concepts and theories associated with the topic under study.
3.2. Important Concepts
Instead of directly indulging in data analysis, defining important concepts and exploring
theories associated with ethno-nationalism and democracy will be important. Hence, concepts
like democracy, democratization, ethnicity, and ethno-nationalism are enunciated briefly as
follows.
Democracy and democratization are closely related where the prior indicates the essence
while the latter is about transitions and the process. Democracy is “a combination of
institutions and processes which guarantee representative government and popular
participation” (Osaghae, 1999:261). It is a system of government that allows people to
influence decision-making through periodic elections where they can sanction political
parties (Merrera, 2004). On the other hand, democratization is a process which, according to
Huntington, refers to a transition from non-democratic to democratic regimes that occur
within a specified time. Scholars argue that democratization is a long process with ups and
downs which under certain conditions can consolidate or backslide (Huntington, 1991;
Diamond, 2008).
14The backsliding of democracy where democracies either turn into authoritarianism or
dictatorships was called by Huntington (1991) democratic reversal while Larry Diamond
called it democratic recession (2008). According to Huntington (1991) consolidation of
democracy happens when a ruling political party loses election, hands over power peacefully
to the winner. Huntington (1991) indicated that multiple peaceful transitions of power are a
very important indicator for the consolidation of democracy. From the above definitions, it
can be understood that the focus in conceptualizing democracy and democratization often
focuses on the election. This takes us to the debate of minimalist and substantive democracy.
The debate between minimalist and substantive democracy remained significant in
conceptualizing democracy. The minimalist point of understanding democracy, often
considered as procedural democracy, takes into account elections. While from a substantive
point of view democracy is beyond election. Without an election, of course, popular
contestation and engagement are inconceivable, which are according to Dahl the foundations
of substantive democracy (Burnell, 2011). Consolidating democracy needs broad political
space that enables actors and citizens to freely participate and drive change. It is only through
elections that power can be transferred from one to another. Particularly, when elections
result in a peaceful transfer of power not only between individuals but also among political
parties, according to Huntington (1991), it is considered as a litmus test for the progress of
democratization.
However, unlike the argument of minimalist electoral democracy, in this study, it is argued
that democracy is beyond election. One of the most important elements this study aspires to
employ to identify whether democratization in the country is in progress or in the challenge
of reversal will be examining whether political space is widening or shrinking. The state of
political space in a country is often considered an important indicator to identify and assess
democratization and democratic reversal. Political space refers to the avenue to express
voices and influence political outcome (NDI, 2016).
Nationalism is another important concept that needs defining and operationalizing in the
context of this study. The notion of nationalism is not a monolithic concept, having complex
and diverse dimensions and manifestations (Pamir, 1997). According to Lecours and Moreno
(2010), the distinction between civic-nationalism and ethno-nationalism is very important to
understand its impact on democracy and overall development. Civic nationalism is an all-
embracing, unifying force, which brings people with a diverse background within the state
15(Pamir, 1997). On the other hand, ethno-nationalism is considered parochial by its nature.
Ethno-nationalism associates itself with the emergence of political movements mobilizing a
particular ethnicity against other groups or the central government. “Ethnicity is a social-
psychological process which gives an individual a sense of belonging and identity” (Isajiw,
1992:8). Ethno-nationalism bases on this exclusive sense of belongingness within a given
ethnic group. Of course, ethno-nationalism plays not only a disruptive role but also can play a
positive role in contributing to the emancipation and liberation of oppressed groups (Jalata,
2001).
3.3. Theories of Ethnicity
Regarding theories that can guide the study, this research bases on theories of ethnicity that
can serve as a theoretical ground to study ethno-nationalism, its nexus, and compatibility with
democracy in Ethiopia. Scholars have identified three major theories of ethnicity: namely,
primordialism, constructivism and instrumentalist theories of ethnicity.
Primordialism is the oldest theoretical approach to studying ethnicity in the literature of
anthropology and political science (Isajiw, 1992). According to primordialism, ethnicity is
considered as an objective thing, ascribed at birth, derived from kin and clan structure,
something fixed and permanent with inherent features of language, territory, common
membership and even similar psychological makeup (Isajiw, 1992; Tishkov, 1997).
According to primordialism, “each of us belongs to one and only one ethnic group, that group
membership remains fixed over a lifetime, and it is passed down intact across generations”
(Chandra, 2012:1). This understanding of ethnic identity considers ethnicity “as a product of
early human evolution” (Tishkov, 1997:10). This conceptualization of ethnicity and its role in
ethnic conflicts has received criticism from constructivists and instrumentalist counterparts.
Weir (2012) noted that the theory of primordialism failed to give an adequate explanation to
elite manipulation in ethnic conflicts.
Constructivism as a theory of ethnicity argues that ethnic identity is socially constructed
through both structure and agency (Nagel, 1994). Against the assertion of primordialism,
constructivists argue that ethnicity is not fixed and permanent rather it is dynamic and a result
of group relations (Isajiw, 1992). Nagel (1994) further argued that ethnicity is a product of
internal and external actions undertaken either by the ethnic groups themselves or external
social, economic and political processes and actors that shape and reshape ethnic categories,
language and culture. In simple and clear words Isajiw (1992:4) from a constructivist point of
16view defined ethnicity as “something that is negotiated and constructed in everyday living. It
is a process which continues to unfold”.
The third variant among theories of ethnicity is instrumentalism. The central idea of the
theory of instrumentalism is the manipulation of ethnicity by political leaders for political
gain (Weir, 2012). Instrumentalists consider ethnicity as an instrument for elite manipulation.
As cited in Isajiw (1992:3) ethnicity is "a group option in which resources are mobilized to
pressure the political system to allocate public goods for the benefit of the members of a self-
differentiating collectivity" (Ross, 1982). In a highly divided society, elites or political
leaders use ethnicity to easily mobilize support to rebel against government or inter-ethnic
conflict for their political gain (Weir, 2012). Mass media, social media, and politicized and
institutionalized ethnicity in the presence of lumpen youth create enabling environment to
inculcate exclusionary ideas among the people and use ethnicity for the political end of elites.
Ethnic conflicts occurring due to greed and grievance are often manipulated by elites (Weir,
2012).
I argue that constructivist and instrumentalist conceptualizations of ethnicity are not mutually
exclusive. That means ethnicity can be socially constructed at the same time being used by
elites. Among all the theories of ethnicity, the situation in Ethiopia can be best explained by
the instrumentalist explanation of ethnicity. The elites in Ethiopia had played a role by
articulating grievances and ethnic questions and mobilizing the mass (Merrera, 2004; Jalata,
2001). In this research project, the theory of instrumentalism is used as a theoretical
framework to analyze the recent upsurge of ethno-nationalism and its impact on democracy
in Ethiopia. Conflicts seemingly inspired by ethnic hatred are often driven by the aims of
political leaders (Weir, 2012) where the assertions of instrumentalists hold water. I argue that
the role of elites using ethnicity as an instrument for ethnic mobilization to achieve their
political and socio-economic aspirations is an important feature in Ethiopia. Ethiopia is a
country where powerful and divisive historical narrations regarding the role of ethnic groups,
marginalization and inclusion in the long state and nation-building process in the country are
causing grievances that are easily channelled by elites to violent conflict. But it should be
noted that using instrumentalist theory for analysis in this study does not deny the very idea
of the socially constructed nature of ethnicity.
17CHAPTER FOUR
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
For any academic research, methodological clarity is very important. This section attempts to
shed light on the strategies and the way the research was carried out. The important
methodological toolkits and ethical issues employed during the data collection, analysis and
reporting are briefly discussed as follows.
4.1. Research Methodology
As defined by Catherine Dawson (2002:14), research methodology is ‘a philosophy or
general principle which guides the whole research’. In choosing the best methodology that
guides the whole research process, the option is usually between qualitative, quantitative, and
mixed approaches.
This research is a qualitative research. It studied how the upsurge of ethnonationalism has
been impacting democratization in Ethiopia and pinpoints future scenarios. Evidence from
different literature reveals that democracy is a global phenomenon conditioned by contexts at
different levels, extending from the local to the international actors. Hence, this research
attempts to conduct a multi-level analysis taking into account, the local, national, and
international level factors and their repercussion on the upsurge of ethnonationalism and
Ethiopia’s fragile democracy. In doing so, this research neither aims to generate a statistical
report nor conduct a survey. Instead of focusing on quantifiable figures and statistical reports,
this research, bases on qualitative indicators and themes during data collection as well as
analysis. The researcher believes this can be best studied through a qualitative approach than
quantitative or mixed approaches.
4.1.1. Methods of Data Collection
Research methods can be understood as all those techniques and tools that are used for
collecting and analyzing data (Dawson, 2012). The most important research methods
employed to conduct this research were literature review and interviews. The research was
dominantly a desk research where data from primary and secondary sources was collected
through literature review. Data from secondary sources was also used to develop the
theoretical and conceptual foundation of the study. For this purpose, data was collected from
available and relevant books, journal articles, legal and policy documents, governmental and
international organization reports, newspapers and media reports through literature review.
18Apart from that, data was also collected from primary sources through interviews.
Qualitative research often attempts to get an in-depth opinion from participants through
interviews (Dawson, 2012). The concept of ‘interview’ ‘covers a lot of grounds, from totally
unstructured interactions, through semi-structured situations, to highly formal interactions
with respondents’ (Bernard, 2006:210). In this research, semi-structured interviews were
employed where both closed and open-ended questions were forwarded to participants to
collect the needed data and understand the situation. The tool this research used to get an in-
depth opinion from participants was a key informant interview. “Qualitative in-depth
interviews are usually conducted with key informants, that is, interview with people who
know what is going on in the respective field” (David and Mumtaz, 2013: 133). Qualitative
research usually involves a small number of people to get detail and in-depth information
(David and Mumtaz, 2013). For this study, 12 key informants involving researchers,
journalists and analysts were carefully selected using a purposive sampling technique. The
participants' expertise in Ethiopian politics and history was used as important inclusion
criteria. In selecting participants, the researcher also attempted to take into account
participants' ethnic backgrounds so that people from different perspectives can be contacted.
The research was conducted based on informed consent where participation in the research
was voluntary. Out of 12 participants contacted for this research, 9 key informants
participated in this research. The interviews took from 30 minutes to an hour.
This research project was carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic which impacted the
research methods employed to conduct the study. The pandemic impacted our daily life
where meeting people physically was difficult and unadvisable though not impossible. As a
result, the researcher was not able to conduct a face-to-face interview. However, the
interviews were conducted per the plan using a computer-mediated digital platform.
Generally speaking, the researcher believes that combining both desk research and key
informant interviews helped to triangulate the findings increase the credibility and validity of
the finding.
4.1.2. Method of Data Analysis
In a research process with academic significance, the method of data analysis is as important
as methods of data collection. In qualitative research more often than not data analysis takes
parallelly with data collection (Dawson, 2012). In the same vein, in this research, the analysis
took place along the data collection process.
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