Meeting India's Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge - Climate Policy Initiative

Page created by Harvey Reyes
 
CONTINUE READING
Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets:
The Financing Challenge
Climate Policy Initiative

David Nelson
Gireesh Shrimali
Shobhit Goel
Charith Konda
Raj Kumar

December 2012

 CPI-ISB Report
Descriptors
      Sector             Power
      Region             India
      Keywords           Renewable Energy, Finance, Solar, Wind
      Related CPI        The Impact of Policy on the Financing of Renewable Projects; Supporting Renewables
      Reports            While Saving Taxpayers Money; Improving Effectiveness of Climate Finance
      Contact            Gireesh Shrimali, Hyderabad Office               David Nelson, San Francisco Office
                              gireesh.shrimali@cpihyd.org                      david.nelson@cpisf.org

     Acknowledgements
     The authors thank the following for their collaboration and input: Alipt Sharma of GEF, Amit Oke of ICICI
     Bank, Charlie Donovan of EADA Business School, Don Purka and Sujata Gupta of ADB, Gaurav Malik
     of Olympus Capital, Harsh Shah of L&T Infra, Robert Collier, Saravanan Nattanmai of Nereus Capital,
     Srinivas Kara of IDFC, and developers of renewable projects analyzed in this report. The perspectives
     expressed here are CPI’s own.

     About the Indian School of Business
     The Indian School of Business (ISB) was established in 2001 with an aspiration to put India on the global
     map of management education. In less than a decade since its inception, the ISB has successfully pio-
     neered several new trends in management education in India, and firmly established itself as a world-
     class management institution. In 2008, the ISB became the youngest institution to be ranked among the
     Top 20, in the Global B-school Rankings by the Financial Times, London, and since then has been ranked
     consistently among the top B-schools globally. The ISB today has a strong pool of research-oriented
     resident faculty and invites high caliber international faculty from reputed B-schools to teach in its Post
     Graduate Programme in Management (PGP), Post Graduate Programme in Management for Senior
     Executives (PGPMAX), and Executive Education Programmes. In addition to teaching, the visiting faculty
     also participates in collaborative research with the resident faculty. The school has over 4000 PGP Alumni
     and 13,000 Executive Education Alumni making an impact on business and society across the world.

     About CPI
     Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) is a policy effectiveness analysis and advisory organization whose mission is
     to assess, diagnose, and support the efforts of key governments around the world to achieve low-carbon
     growth.
     CPI is headquartered in San Francisco and has offices around the world, which are affiliated with distin-
     guished research institutions. Offices include: CPI Beijing affiliated with the School of Public Policy and
     Management at Tsinghua University; CPI Berlin; CPI Hyderabad, affiliated with the Indian School of Busi-
     ness; CPI Rio, affiliated with Pontifical Catholic University of Rio (PUC-Rio); and CPI Venice, affiliated with
     Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM). CPI is an independent, not-for-profit organization that receives
     long-term funding from George Soros.

Copyright © 2012 Climate Policy Initiative www.climatepolicyinitiative.org
All rights reserved. CPI welcomes the use of its material for noncommercial purposes, such as policy discus-
sions or educational activities, under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported
License.
For commercial use, please contact admin@cpisf.org.
November 2012                                      Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

Executive summary                                              In the short term:
                                                                 • The high cost of debt — that is, high interest
India’s power sector has two overlapping, historic chal-           rates — is the most pressing problem currently
lenges — one that has grabbed international headlines              facing the financing of renewable energy. Our
and another that has largely flown below the radar.                financial modeling of actual renewable energy
The widespread blackouts that brought much of India                projects in India and elsewhere indicates that
to a sputtering halt in 2012 were a dramatic signal of a           the higher cost and inferior terms of debt in
power sector that requires attention. But a challenge no           India may raise the cost of renewable energy by
less central to India’s future, and arguably much more             24-32% compared to similar projects financed
so, is that of the country’s goals for renewable energy.           in the U.S. or Europe.
The national government’s ambitious goals for solar              • Interviews with investors and developers
energy, coupled with the country’s rapid progress in               suggest that neither the cost nor availability
developing wind energy, raise many questions regard-               of equity is currently a major problem. In fact,
ing the sources and costs of the investment that will be           our analysis suggests that when adjusted for
needed to install and operate this infrastructure.                 differences due to the less attractive nature of
                                                                   debt in India, expected returns on equity (ROE)
Under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
                                                                   India may actually be lower than in the U.S. or
(JNNSM), grid-connected solar PV capacity increased
                                                                   Europe, despite potentially higher country risks.
by 165% in 2011 to reach 427 MW. However, the
ambitious targets for 4,000-10,000MW by 2017 and                 • General Indian financial market conditions
20,000 MW by 2022 may be hard to achieve under                     are the main cause of high interest rates for
current policies and programs, and financing may be the            renewable energy. Growth, high inflation,
biggest obstacle. Likewise, with 16 GW installed, India            competing investment needs, and country
had already become the world’s fifth largest market for            risks all contribute. A shallow bond market
wind by 2011, but ambitious plans for a further expan-             and regulatory restrictions on foreign capital
sion to 31 GW by 2017 will face similarly daunting policy          flows also adds to the problem, while the cost
and financing problems.                                            of currency swaps and country risk negate the
                                                                   advantages that could come from access to
In this report, Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) analyzes the       lower cost foreign debt.
challenges for designing national policy that will attract
the investment needed to spur rapid growth in wind and         In the medium to long term:
solar energy at a reasonable cost. CPI has conducted
detailed financial modeling of actual Indian renewable           • A declining availability of debt for renewable
projects; numerous interviews with developers, finan-              energy projects, whether high cost or not, may
ciers, and policy makers; and examined, in depth, the              become an impediment. Interviews with lenders
idiosyncrasies of Indian financial markets. This report            and analysis of debt markets indicate that
describes and analyzes the impact of national and state            many lenders may be reaching the limit for the
policies on various classes of renewable energy inves-             amount of money they will lend to the sector.
tors, as well as the overall relative costs or benefits of         Their withdrawal from the market may restrict
policies on the final cost of renewable energy projects.           project development.
We focus particularly on the cost and availability of            • Continued high borrowing by the Government
equity and debt, respectively, and the consequent impli-           of India and related regulatory restrictions are
cations for Indian renewable and financial policy.                 likely to keep interest rates high.
Table ES-1 summarizes the main financing issues facing           • Even if the cost of debt goes down, our analysis
renewable energy policy currently and evaluates how                suggests that loan terms – including short
these issues might grow or diminish in importance in               tenors and variable interest rates – will become
the medium to long term. To summarize its findings:                more significant impediments, especially in
                                                                   lower interest rate environments.
                                                                 • Finally, attractive, low cost equity may be less
                                                                   available in the future. First, as debt becomes
                                                                   less available, current equity investors may not

A CPI Report                                                                                                           I
November 2012                                   Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

     be able to recycle their investment capital into          and what that means for the impact of policy,
     new projects by borrowing against the operating           means that policy levers used to decrease
     projects. Second, as the market matures, many             financing costs in the U.S. and Europe have a
     investors may no longer be willing to invest at           less impact in India.
     relatively low returns in order to establish a
                                                            • Other developing countries have bridged the
     strategic foothold, as they currently appear to
                                                              financing gap in unorthodox but successful
     be doing in solar photovoltaic (PV) projects.
                                                              ways. The Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES)
                                                              is an especially promising example that
Beyond Debt and Equity:                                       deserves further study and consideration by
  • Regulation and the structure of the Indian power          Indian policymakers.
    sector also raise significant issues. State-level
    policies – including the financial weakness of        As a next step, CPI proposes to investigate potential
    the state electricity boards that buy much of the     policy solutions to bring lower cost, long-term debt into
    output from renewable generators – increase           the Indian renewable energy market. Given that renew-
    project risk. National policies designed to weave     able energy will require some financial support in the
    state policies together, particularly the recently    medium term, until renewable energy costs reach a
    established Renewable Energy Certificate (REC)        degree of parity with conventional sources of electricity,
    market, do not adequately reflect the realities of    we will ask the question: Within a portfolio of policies,
    financial markets or state-level risks.               is it more effective to close the gap between renew-
                                                          able energy costs and alternatives through subsidies,
  • Our analysis shows that renewable energy              tax benefits, or other support mechanisms, or through
    policy lessons from the U.S. and Europe may not       concessional debt, or a mix of two or more?
    apply to India’s financial realities. The economy
    and financial markets in which renewable              As part of this investigation, we will explore the mecha-
    energy policies operate partly determine the          nisms used to finance renewable energy in other rapidly
    effectiveness of these policies. The significant      developing economies including China and Brazil. The
    differences between India and developed world         BNDES example should be particularly instructive.
    financial markets, including the high cost of debt

A CPI Report                                                                                                      II
November 2012                                                           Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

Table ES-1: Current and future impact of major issues in Indian renewable energy finance
                                                                                                                      Negative impact of issue:
                                                                                                                                     medium to
                                                                                                                        Now
                                                                       issue                                                         LoNg term

                             Equity returns required by investors are reasonable for good projects                     NONE            LOW
           COST AND
            TERMS

                             Required returns depend on technology maturity and developer strategy                     NONE          MEDIUM

                             Equity is generally available for good renewable energy projects
  EQUITY

                                                                                                                       NONE          MEDIUM

                             Equity is available from foreign investors but facing a shortage of attractive
            AVAILABILITY

                                                                                                                       LOW           MEDIUM
                             projects

                             Equity availability is heavily skewed towards a few states with good policy
                                                                                                                     MEDIUM          MEDIUM
                             regimes and attractive business environments

                             Lack of debt may reduce available equity in the medium term as equity investors
                                                                                                                       LOW             HIGH
                             cannot recycle investments from current projects to future investments

                             High general Indian interest rate environment raises renewable project debt cost        VERY HIGH      VERY HIGH

                             Longer tenor debt is generally unavailable                                              MEDIUM            HIGH
            COST AND TERMS

                             Fixed interest rate debt is rare; market relies on variable rate debt                     LOW             HIGH

                             Debt is not strictly non-recourse as it is usually offered on a relationship basis      MEDIUM          MEDIUM

                             Shortage of debt may raise its cost in the longer term                                    LOW           MEDIUM
  DE BT

                             Banks limit lending to any one sector for risk purposes                                   LOW             HIGH

                             Renewable energy debt is often classified within power or energy sectors, which
                                                                                                                     MEDIUM            HIGH
                             are already nearing sector limits

                             Some banks are not lending to renewable projects due to unfamiliarity with
            AVAILABILITY

                                                                                                                     MEDIUM            HIGH
                             renewable energy policy and markets

                             Limits on foreign debt may restrict foreign lending                                       LOW             HIGH

                             Technology risk is limiting debt to some technologies                                   MEDIUM          MEDIUM

                             State-level policy, the poor financial condition of the State Electricity Boards, and
                                                                                                                     MEDIUM            HIGH
                             unfavorable local business environments restrict lending to some states

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                      III
November 2012                                      Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

                                                    Contents
       1. Introduction                                                                                           1
       2. Renewable energy industry trends                                                                      2
              2.1 Renewable energy development in India                                                         2
              2.2 Sources of finance                                                                            2
              2.3 The cost of renewable energy in India                                                         3
       3. Finding equity and raising debt – Two very different issues                                           5
       4. India’s Achilles heel – High cost of debt                                                             9
              4.1 The high general interest rate environment in India                                           9
              4.2 Longer tenor debt is generally unavailable                                                   10
              4.3 Fixed interest rate debt is rare                                                              11
              4.4 Debt is not strictly non-recourse                                                             11
              4.5 Availability of debt                                                                         12
              4.6 Many banks do not lend, or limit lending, to renewable energy projects                       12
              4.7 Limits on foreign lending - Capital controls on foreign debt                                 13
              4.8 Limits on foreign lending - Interest rate ceilings                                           13
              4.9 Technology risks                                                                             14
              4.10 State-level issues                                                                          15
       5. Equity – Ample availability, but can it last?                                                        16
              5.1 Cost of equity or required return on equity (ROE) and differentiation between technologies   16
              5.2 The availability of equity                                                                   17

       6. Summary of the state of renewable energy finance                                                     18
       7. Government policy framework                                                                          22
             7.1 Renewable Energy Certificate markets                                                          22
             7.2 State-level policy issues                                                                     24
       8. Policy analysis - Case studies and international comparisons                                         27
              8.1 Case study analysis – India versus the U.S. and Europe                                       27
              8.2 Brazil and China                                                                             29
       9. Conclusions and Next Steps                                                                           31
             9.1 Next Steps for Research and Analysis                                                          31

A CPI Report                                                                                                         IV
November 2012                                                        Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

1. Introduction                                                                  In India, the role of development financial institutions
                                                                                 (DFIs), a major source of long-term funding for energy
As India wrestles with the historic challenge of pro-                            infrastructure prior to the 1991 financial reforms, has
viding enough electricity for its huge population and                            markedly diminished in recent years. Because of the
booming economy, the national government is pursuing                             deregulation of financial markets, DFIs have been
another equally difficult and impressive goal — mark-                            obliged to compete with commercial banks to raise
edly expanding the share of renewable sources in its                             funds at market rates. This undermined the business
energy supply mix.                                                               model of the DFIs; many were forced to convert them-
                                                                                 selves into commercial banks. This change, combined
The government has embarked upon an ambitious                                    with the shallowness of the corporate bond market, has
plan, Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, to build                          left a gap in funding for renewable energy.
20,000 MW of solar power nationwide by 2020. At the
same time, India is already the fifth-largest market for                         In Brazil, by contrast, the Brazilian Development Bank
wind turbines, with cumulative installations of 16GW at                          (BNDES) plays a major role in almost every renew-
the end of 2011.1                                                                able project in the country, often by offering long-term
                                                                                 loans at below market rates. BNDES’s role in financing
This flurry of activity demonstrates the seriousness                             renewable energy has led to lower prices and, arguably,
of India’s intentions. But the scale of these ambitions,                         enhanced the performance of other policies such as
and the financial resources required, raise many ques-                           wind energy auctions designed to create competition
tions regarding the sources and costs of the needed                              amongst potential wind park developers.
investment, about the adequacy of the investment to
reach these goals, and the efficacy of that investment in                        In this paper we analyze the impact of Indian policies on
reaching the most suitable projects.                                             the attractiveness of renewable energy investments to
                                                                                 various classes of investors, and we assess the overall
The question of whether India’s financial system is                              relative costs or benefits of polices on the fully financed
adequately financing the renewable energy sector —                               cost of renewable projects. We have used detailed
and if not, why — is especially poignant in light of the                         financial modeling of actual Indian renewable projects
differences between India’s financing system and those                           as a key element of this analysis.
of Europe and North America as well as developing
nations such as China and Brazil.                                                This study does not address the subject of off-grid
                                                                                 renewable energy projects, which present different
Of course, the challenges of the renewable energy                                financing challenges and require different policy solu-
sector cannot be completely divorced from India’s                                tions than on-grid renewable energy projects. Nor does
overall infrastructure financing challenges. According                           it discuss in depth the overlap between the financing of
to the Planning Commission of India, infrastructure                              renewable energy and conventional power generation.
investment will need to increase from about 8% of GDP                            CPI will address these topics in future research.
in 2011-12 to approximately 10% of GDP by 2016-17. The
total investment in infrastructure is required to be over
INR 45 lakh crore (USD 1 trillion) during the 12th Five
Year Plan period (2012-17). 2 However, the Indian gov-
ernment estimates a 30%, or USD 300 billion, gap in
the targeted infrastructure investments by 2017, largely
due to the lack of long-term finance. 3

Given the emerging nature of renewable energy tech-
nologies and business models, financial and regulatory
sectors must adapt quickly — a task they have carried
out somewhat unevenly. For this reason, the renewable
energy sector’s current challenges are especially acute.

1 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2012
2 An Approach to the Twelfth Five Year Plan, Government of India, Planning
  Commission, October 2011
3 India estimates a USD 300 billion infrastructure funding gap, Infrastructure
  Investor, October 2010

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                1
November 2012                                     Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

2. Renewable energy industry                                 Figure 2-1: India wind power installed capacity and future targets
trends
                                                                                                                          12th plan target
2.1 Renewable energy development in India

                                                                                     30,000
Historically, the growth of wind power in India was
primarily driven by state-level incentives in conjunc-                                                                                 31,078

                                                             Installed capacity (MW)
tion with an accelerated depreciation benefit extended

                                                                           20,000
by the national Government of India beginning in 1995.                                        11th plan target
Wind power installed capacity increased from 230 MW
in 1994-95 to 16,078 MW by 2011, reaching approxi-
mately 94% of the 11th plan (2007-12) target.                                                                      17,164

                                                             10,000
In 2007-11, wind capacity installations increased
at a compound annual growth rate of 19.7% as the
Government of India introduced additional incentives
such as the generation-based incentive (GBI) as well as

                                                                          0
accelerated depreciation. However, both the acceler-                            2006                        2011 2012                             2017
ated depreciation and the GBI, which comprised 10%             Source: BP Statistical Review, 2012; Central Electricity Authority; Ministry of
of wind energy incentives,4 expired in March 2012.             New and Renewable Energy; India Infoline. Note: Yearly data is at the end of
Reaching India’s ambitious target of total wind installed      December every year.
capacity of 31,078MW by 2017, will now depend upon
new mechanisms, including the Renewable Energy
Certificate (REC) market discussed in Section 7.
                                                              Figure 2-2: India grid-connected solar PV installed capacity
India’s solar power industry began significant growth         vs. Phase 1 target
only in 2010, when the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar
Mission (JNNSM) was announced. After the announce-

                                                                                                                                             2,000
ment of JNNSM, grid-connected solar PV capacity
increased by 165% in 2011 alone to reach 427MW.
However, a failure to address the remaining financ-

                                                                                                                                             Installed capacity (MW)
                                                                                                                        JNNSM
ing challenges will make the targets set under JNNSM
— Phase 2 (4,000-10,000MW by 2017) and Phase 3                                                                    Phase I
                                                                                                                                                        1000
(20,000MW by 2022) — difficult to achieve.
                                                                                                                 target                      0

                                                                2007                            2009              2011                 2013
                                                              Source: BP Statistical Review, 2012 Note: Yearly data is at the end of December
                                                              every year.

4 See section 7.

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                                           2
November 2012                                                     Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

 2.2 Sources of finance                                                      Figure 2-3: Renewable energy investment trends in India
 A variety of investors finance renewable energy projects

                                                                                           12
 in India, including institutions, banks, and registered
 companies (Table 2-1). Institutional investors are either

                                                                             Investment (billions of USD)
 state-owned or bilateral and multilateral institutions.
 Among banks, both private sector and public sector

                                                                                                  8
 banks are involved. In addition to registered companies,
 venture capital and private equity investors contribute
 equity investment. Return expectations of the investors
 vary according to the sources of their funds and the risk

                                                                                   4
 attached to specific projects.

 During 2006-09, India’s annual total renewable energy
 investment remained between USD 4 billion and USD

                                                                                           0
 5 billion. Investment has risen rapidly since then, from                                               2006     2007     2008    2009   2010       2011
 USD 4.2 billion in 2009 to USD 12.3 billion in 2011                         Source: Global trends in renewable energy investment 2012
 (Figure 2-3).
                                                                            Figure 2-4: Renewable energy investment trends in India by
 While wind continues to receive the majority of invest-
                                                                            technology
 ment, solar has seen the highest growth, and the gap
 between the two is falling rapidly, as shown in Figure

                                                                                                                                                     6
 2-4.

                                                                                                                                                     Investment (billions of USD)
                                                                                                                                                           4
                                                                                                               Wind

                                                                                                                                                                          2
                                                                                                                        Solar

                                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                               2009                                        2010                 2011
                                                                            Source: Bloomberg NEF- UNEP Reports, (i) Global trends in sustainable energy
                                                                            investment 2010. (ii) Global trends in RE investment 2011 and (iii) Global trends
                                                                            in RE investment 2012

Table 2-1: Renewable energy investors (number of institutions)
                                                                    TOTAL     ACTIVE IN
 TYPE OF INVESTOR                        CATEGORY                 REGISTERED RENEWABLE
                                                                   IN INDIA    SECTOR
                            Public sector banks                      26                            9
 Commercial banks           Private sector banks                     30                            6
                            Foreign banks                            37                              -
                            Private equity                            51                          16
 Equity investors
                            Venture capital                          180                          21
 Institutional investors Insurance funds                             24                            11
 Development Banks          Development financial institutions*       3                             3
 *DFIs include national level institutions IREDA, IFCI, SIDBI

 A CPI Report                                                                                                                                                                 3
November 2012                                                       Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

2.3 The cost of renewable energy in India                                     In the case of solar, capital costs in India were 25%
                                                                              lower than those in the U.S. However, most of this cost
In some important ways, India has a cost advantage in                         advantage was eliminated by the lower expected output
renewable energy. Labor and construction costs, for                           per MW, which was likely the result of lower insolation
instance, are significantly lower in India than in coun-                      and higher levels of dust in Rajasthan, where the Indian
tries like the U.S. or Germany. Furthermore, India is                         plant was built, or, possibly the use of less expensive,
blessed with renewable resources like wind and sun that                       but less reliable, equipment. With these two factors
are comparable to good locations in other countries.                          offsetting each other, the Indian solar PV facility was
Yet, despite these advantages, the cost of renewable                          nevertheless 26% more expensive due entirely to the
energy can be as high in India as in the U.S. or even sig-                    higher return requirements for investors in India, that
nificantly higher. The difference is often due to financing                   is, the more expensive cost of financing the project.
costs.
                                                                              The two wind projects depict a similar story, although
In comparison to conventional power generation                                the wind project in India is still cheaper, despite the
sources such as coal or gas, renewable energy is char-                        higher financing costs. While these projects do not rep-
acterized by a relatively high initial investment, followed                   resent all U.S. or Indian renewable projects, and rapid
by low variable costs. Since a much greater share of the                      changes to cost and performance lead to constantly
cost of energy is determined by the initial investment,                       changing figures, the comparison itself is indicative of
higher financing costs have a disproportionate impact                         the substantial impact of financing costs on renewable
on renewable energy. This puts renewable energy at a                          energy in India.
relative disadvantage in India.
                                                                              The key takeaway is that the renewable projects could
Figure 2-5 compares two typical large-scale installations                     be much less expensive if not for the higher financing
in the U.S. against similar projects in India to quantify                     costs. For more details, see Appendix 4.
the sources of differences in the levelized cost of elec-
tricity (LCOE), defined as the average cost of electricity
over the life of a project factoring in the return required
on investments.

    Figure 2-5: Finance raises the overall cost of renewable energy in India

             SOLAR PV                                                                  ONSHORE WIND
                                          India’s finance costs
                                            increase the cost
                                           of energy by 28%
                    India’s CAPEX                                                                                    India’s finance costs
                     lowers costs                                                              India’s CAPEX
                                                   +28%                                         lowers costs           increase the cost
                                                                                                                      of energy by 22%
                           -25%      +23%                                                             -29%
                                                                                                                 -5%         +22%
                                      Lower
                                   output per                                                                   Higher
                                  unit capacity                                                               output per
                                  raises energy                                                              unit capacity
                                      costs                                                                     lowers
            100                                               126                      100                   energy costs               88
       US Levelized                                    India Levelized            US Levelized                                   India Levelized
     Cost of Electricity                              Cost of Electricity       Cost of Electricity                             Cost of Electricity
      ($0.19 / KWh)                                                              ($0.09 / KWh)

    Sources include discussions with developers.

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                          4
November 2012                                        Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

        Low cost financing of renewable energy projects usually requires both debt and equity investors.
        However, in India debt and equity investors face very different conditions. When compared to
        the financing of renewable energy projects in the developed world, in India the relatively high cost
        and low availability of debt may add 24-32% to the cost of renewable energy projects compared to
        similar projects in the US, while equity returns have a comparatively minor impact on relative costs.
        In this section, we analyze the relative impact of the cost and terms of debt and equity on
        renewable energy project costs and identify a set of issues beyond debt and equity markets
        that may concern policy makers. This section paves the way for more detailed discussions of
        debt (section 4), equity (section 5) and other potential policymaker concerns (section 6).

3. Finding equity and raising                                  In India, the differences between debt and equity are
                                                               particularly striking. In general, we find that equity
debt – Two very different                                      appears to be readily available at a reasonable cost,
                                                               while renewable energy debt is both limited and expen-
issues                                                         sive. Figure 3-1 highlights the differences between
                                                               renewable energy debt and equity markets in India and
Conditions for renewable finance can be very different         developed markets. Note how equity returns in India are
depending on the technology employed, the devel-               similar to those in the U.S. and Europe, but interest rates
oper, geography, or the requirements of the investors          on debt are significantly higher.
themselves. The most important distinction is between
investors in the debt markets (lenders) and those in the       To compound the problem, access to potentially lower
equity markets (owners).                                       cost international debt is limited due to regulatory
                                                               barriers, the cost and risks associated with long-term
Generally speaking, debt investors are more conserva-          currency swaps, and perceived country risks (Section
tive, accepting lower returns in exchange for lower risk.      5.6). As a result, the cost of debt to a renewable energy
As such, their primary concern is that downsides are           project in India will typically be in the 10-14% range,
limited; that is, that the project does not fail. Equity       as compared to the 5-7% range typical in the United
investors are willing to take more risk in exchange for        States. Despite the higher cost, debt in India also suffers
higher returns, and therefore focus equally on risk and        from inferior terms, including shorter tenors and vari-
the prospects of a project performing even better than         able rather than fixed interest rates.
expected. Under most circumstances, a project will be
least expensive when it is funded by a mix of debt and         Figure 2-5 in Section 2 demonstrates that the financing
equity, either at the project level, or through debt and       costs added 28% and 22% to the cost of solar PV and
equity secured at the corporate level.                         wind projects, respectively, in India. In Figure 3-2, we
                                                               take a closer look at the financing component. We begin
Renewable energy financing can become costly when              by noting that there are many factors that influence the
either debt or equity investors demand too high a return       total finance cost. Here we highlight five:
or when either is simply unavailable. Thus, for both debt
and equity we pose two sets of questions:                        • The cost of debt
  • Cost and terms: Are the returns investors are                • The tenor of debt — that is, the length of time
    demanding and the conditions they are placing                  over which the debt is repaid
    on their investment so onerous as to make the                • Whether the debt is variable or fixed
    project economically unattractive? or;
                                                                 • Extra risk that will be taken on by equity in the
  • Availability: Is debt or equity just not available?            event that debt rates are variable
    That is, are there enough investors willing to
    invest or lend to renewable projects in India?               • The cost of equity, or the required return on
                                                                   equity (ROE)
Significantly, while policy can influence the returns
required by equity and debt investors and the availabil-       Using the same typical projects described in Figure 2-5,
ity of either, different policies are likely to be important   Figure 3-2 compares just the financing differences of
to different classes of investors.

A CPI Report                                                                                                            5
November 2012                                                         Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

                     Figure 3-1: Range of returns on equity and debt costs for renewable energy projects – India versus U.S. and Europe

                                                               Solar PV               onShore Wind            Solar Thermal*           Solar PV           onShore Wind     Solar Thermal*

                                                   20%                                                                                                                                        20%
                                                                                                                                                                            DEBT

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Equity Required Return or Debt rate (% per year)
Equity Required Return or Debt rate (% per year)

                                                   15%                                                                                                                                        15%
                                                                         Europe

                                                                    US
                                                   10%      India                                                                                                                             10%

                                                    5%                                                                                                                                      5%

                                                                                                                EQUITY
                                                      0                                                                                                                                     0
                     * No data for solar thermal in Europe. Note: Equity is levered equity. Source: Projects in India and US CPI finance paper.

                                                   the U.S. and Indian projects. To summarize, we find the                               decreases. If the cost of debt was to decrease
                                                   following:                                                                            and the spread between debt and equity
                                                                                                                                         expand, we would expect the impact of shorter
                                                      • In the case of the solar PV projects, the higher
                                                                                                                                         debt tenors to increase significantly.
                                                        interest rate on the debt alone added 19% to
                                                        the project cost, while it added 10% to the wind                               • Despite being more costly, the debt terms
                                                        project.                                                                         in India are less attractive, particularly the
                                                                                                                                         variable interest rate of most debt in India. In
                                                      • Indian debt tenors are typically much shorter
                                                                                                                                         more developed markets, project developers
                                                        than in the U.S. or Europe. Overall, we have
                                                                                                                                         nearly always seek fixed interest debt. When
                                                        found the shorter debt tenors add between
                                                                                                                                         combined with feed-in tariffs, or long-term
                                                        3% and 10% to the cost of the project, by
                                                                                                                                         power purchase agreements (PPAs) with a
                                                        forcing more rapid amortization of the loan,
                                                                                                                                         fixed price, a fixed interest rate leads to a high
                                                        and therefore reducing the effective leverage
                                                                                                                                         degree of certainty around future cash flows. An
                                                        over the life of the project. 5 Stated another way,
                                                                                                                                         investment with well-defined cash flows is less
                                                        with shorter-term debt, the average amount
                                                                                                                                         risky, and therefore attracts lower cost finance.
                                                        of debt over the project life goes down and
                                                                                                                                         Developers will typically use interest rate swaps
                                                        project debt has a relatively smaller influence
                                                                                                                                         to convert variable rate debt into fixed rate
                                                        on bringing finance costs down over the life of
                                                                                                                                         debt. In India there is no liquid swap market.
                                                        the project. It is important to point out that debt
                                                                                                                                         Therefore, to calculate the cost of the greater
                                                        tenors are relatively less important in India than
                                                                                                                                         uncertainty, we have used the current interest
                                                        they would be elsewhere given that the spread
                                                                                                                                         swap rates in the U.S. and applied them to the
                                                        between the cost of debt and equity is smaller.
                                                                                                                                         debt. At 2%, 10 year swap rates are currently
                                                        Therefore, the value of maintaining a higher
                                                                                                                                         low by historical standards. Nevertheless, this
                                                        level of debt throughout the life of the project
                                                                                                                                         cost adds approximately 7% to the finance cost
                                                                                                                                         of solar PV and 4% to the cost of wind on a
                                                   5 The solar project used for our analysis had an uncharacteristically long tenor.
                                                     Therefore, we have adjusted the debt tenor down to 13 years, which would
                                                                                                                                         comparable basis. Why do Indian developers
                                                     be much more typical of Indian PV projects. The result is to increase the           accept variable rate debt? See section 4.3 for
                                                     impact of shorter debt tenors from 3% to 6%.                                        further discussion.

                                                   A CPI Report                                                                                                                                 6
November 2012                                                                                          Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

  • The corollary to the lower value of the variable                                                                • Finally, as shown in figure 3-1, the cost of equity
    rate debt is that equity is actually taking on                                                                    in India is only slightly higher than in the U.S. or
    more risk. With a fixed price PPA, it is easy                                                                     Europe, depending on the technology, despite
    to see how an unexpected rise in the interest                                                                     the higher underlying country risks. The slightly
    rates could consume all of the cash flow from                                                                     higher Returns on Equity add only 3% and 2%
    a project and wipe out the equity investor.                                                                       respectively to the total cost of financing the
    While we have no accurate way of measuring                                                                        solar and wind project.
    the cost of the additional risk assumed by the
    equity investor, we assume that the risk they                                                                When all of the adjustments are made to account for
    take on is equal to the value of the swap used to                                                            the differences in terms and tenors, equity ends up
    compare India debt to U.S. debt. The result is an                                                            being less expensive than in the U.S. or Europe, despite
    exact offset between debt and equity, moving                                                                 the higher country risks. Meanwhile, the total impact of
    expected return from the equity column to the                                                                debt, including terms and costs, is 24-32% added to the
    debt column.                                                                                                 cost of the project.

       Figure 3-2: The impact of debt and equity costs and terms in India on overall financing costs compared to a U.S. baseline

                                                                        Debt cost and terms in India         Overall, equity cost reduces
                                                                         add 32% to cost of energy              LCOE by 4% in India
                                                                                                                                                   SOLAR PV
                                                           +30%
                                                                                                                  -7%
                                                                                                +7%                          +3%
        Percentage increase in India project costs
            above US project costs (% LCOE)

                                                                                             Variable to        Equity      Equity
                                                           +20%                              fixed debt        absorbs       cost
                                                                     Debt cost      +6%                        variable
                                                                                                               debt risk                            Financing in India
                                                                                  Shorter
                                                                                   debt                                                     +28%      adds 28% to a
                                                                                   tenor                                                              project’s LCOE
                                                           +10%
                                                                      +19%

                                                           US LCOE

                                                                        Debt cost and terms in India         Overall, equity cost reduces
                                                                         add 24% to cost of energy
                                                                                                                                            ONSHORE WIND
                                                                                                                LCOE by 2% in India

                                                                                                                 -4%
              Percentage increase in India project costs

                                                           +20%                                 +4%                          +2%
                  above US project costs (% LCOE)

                                                                                             Variable to        Equity      Equity
                                                                                             fixed debt        absorbs       cost
                                                                                   +10%                        variable                          Financing in India
                                                                     Debt cost                                 debt risk
                                                            +10%                                                                            +22%   adds 22% to a
                                                                                                                                                   project’s LCOE
                                                                                  Shorter
                                                                                   debt
                                                                      +10%         tenor
                                                           US LCOE

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                                                 7
November 2012                                      Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

It is significant that, on an adjusted basis, project
Returns on Equity (ROEs) in India are below those in
the United States. This implies that equity investors are
buying into the market and accepting below rational
returns for strategic reasons — thus suggesting that
ROEs may rise once the market matures.

Beyond the cost and availability of debt lie other distinc-
tions with significant implications for policymakers:
  • Are the cost and availability drivers for Indian
    renewable energy a function of Indian financial
    markets in general, or are they specific to
    renewable energy?
  • Do the drivers affect all investors, or only
    foreign investors?
  • Does the impact depend on the renewable
    technology, for instance affecting only wind, but
    not biomass or vice versa?
  • Does the impact vary by state? That is, do
    state-level policies and business environments
    account for differences in cost or availability of
    investment capital?

Sections 4 and 5 focus on important issues that impact
the financing of renewable energy in India now and in
the future. Eleven of these issues relate to the cost and
availability of debt (discussed further in section 4) and
six relate to the cost and availability of equity (Section
5). In Section 6 we return to the other issues outlined
here, including whether these issues are specific to
renewable energy or characteristic of Indian Financial
markets in general, whether foreign investors are spe-
cifically affected, and whether the impact is different
depending upon the technology employed or the state
in which a project is built.

A CPI Report                                                                                                      8
November 2012                                                          Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

4. India’s Achilles heel – High                                                      The starting point for our analysis is the underlying
                                                                                     benchmark interest rates for India versus other coun-
cost of debt                                                                         tries. The impact of the financial crisis is clear. Since
                                                                                     2007, benchmark interest rates have fallen significantly
4.1 The high general interest rate                                                   in the developed world to stimulate the economy, but
environment in India                                                                 have stayed relatively flat in the rapidly developing
                                                                                     economies. India is the only country whose benchmark
India is a rapidly growing country. As is typical for                                interest rates are higher than they were in 2007. Indian
rapidly developing countries, growth in India comes                                  interest rates are now higher than each of the coun-
with a need for investment in new infrastructure, creat-                             tries in Figure 4-1 save Brazil and the gap with Brazil
ing competition to raise debt; and general inflationary                              has fallen from 12% in 2005 to 0.5% today. The higher
pressures that need to be controlled through higher                                  benchmark rates are, themselves, indicative of the fast
interest rates. As a result, benchmark interest rates in                             growth in India and the multiple competing demands
India are significantly higher than in developed coun-                               for borrowing to meet infrastructure needs and other
tries. Furthermore, uncertainty around the Government                                government borrowing.
of India’s future borrowing needs and the value of the
Rupee create a longer-term uncertainty that constrains                               The roughly 7-8% difference between benchmark inter-
the development of longer-term debt markets.                                         est rates in India and the U.S. and Europe account for

   Table 4-1: Summary of issues affecting debt cost and availability                                            Negative impact of issue:
                                                                                                                                              see
                                                                                                                               medium to    sectioN
                                                                                                                  Now          LoNg term

                       High general Indian interest rate environment raises renewable project debt cost        VERY HIGH      VERY HIGH        4.1

                       Longer tenor debt is generally unavailable                                              MEDIUM            HIGH         4.2
      COST AND TERMS

                       Fixed interest rate debt is rare; market relies on variable rate debt                     LOW             HIGH         4.3

                       Debt is not strictly non-recourse as it is usually offered on a relationship basis      MEDIUM          MEDIUM         4.4

                       Shortage of debt may raise its cost in the longer term                                    LOW           MEDIUM       4.5-4.10

                       Banks limit lending to any one sector for risk purposes                                   LOW             HIGH         4.6

                       Renewable energy debt is often classified within power or energy sectors, which
                                                                                                               MEDIUM            HIGH         4.6
                       are already nearing sector limits

                       Some banks are not lending to renewable projects due to unfamiliarity with
      AVAILABILITY

                                                                                                               MEDIUM            HIGH         4.6
                       renewable energy policy and markets

                       Limits on foreign debt may restrict foreign lending                                       LOW             HIGH       4.7, 4.8

                       Technology risk is limiting debt to some technologies                                   MEDIUM          MEDIUM         4.9

                       State-level policy, the poor financial condition of the State Electricity Boards, and
                                                                                                               MEDIUM            HIGH       4.10, 7.2
                       unfavorable local business environments restrict lending to some states

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                            9
November 2012                                                        Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

  Figure 4-1: Benchmark interest rates (%), 2005-12                                                       deposits have an average maturity of
                                                                                                          below three years.7 For this reason,
                                                                                                          banks in India are not comfortable
                                                                                                          lending for tenors longer than 5-7
   15%                                                                                                    years, while the infrastructure sector
                                                                                                          requires long-term debt of more than
                                                                                                          10 years.
   10%                                                                        • Weak bond markets. In 2010, India’s
                                                                                  Brazil
                                                                                 total outstanding bonds amounted
                                                                                  India
                                                                                 to 53% as a percentage of GDP
                                                                                  China
                                                                                 compared to other countries, such as
     5%                                                                           Indonesia
                                                                                 Japan (247%), U.S. (176%), Malaysia
                                                                                 (76%), and China (60%).8 India is
                                                            Euro Area            lagging far behind other countries
    0%                                                      US                   in the corporate debt market, which
           2005                                         2012*                    accounted for around only 4% of
                                                                                 the total debt market in 2011, a
   *Until May 2012. Source: Trading Economics                                    tiny amount when compared to
                                                                                 other countries. The growth of the
nearly all of the 5-7% difference in debt costs between               corporate bond market in India has been limited
renewable energy projects, even when adjusted for the                 largely due to stringent regulations and under-
fixed rate premium (2%+) that the U.S. and European                   developed financial markets. Government
debt should be given. Note that, as we discuss in section             regulations restrict investments from banks
4.6, borrowing in the U.S. and European markets to                    and insurance companies in corporate bonds
exploit the lower interest rates is not a perfect, or even            and also impose a ceiling on foreign invest-
feasible option, as the cost of currency swaps over the               ments in rupee-denominated government and
life of the loan needed to reduce the exposure to poten-              corporate bonds. Under-developed financial
tial rupee devaluation consumes nearly all of the inter-              markets in India do not offer adequate liquidity
est rate differential. That is to say, much of the interest           for corporate bonds and risk mitigation instru-
rate difference could be considered as risk that the                  ments, such as credit default swaps. Indian
Indian rupee will lose value, or country risk in general.             financial markets also appear to lack diversity of
                                                                      investors, which could limit the trading activity
4.2 Longer tenor debt is generally                                    and instruments available.
unavailable                                                                             • Diminished role of Development Financial
We observed that the short debt tenors in India play a                                    Institutions (DFI). Several key DFIs were
significant part in keeping the costs high compared to                                    established in the 1950s, such as Industrial
developed nations such as the United States. Our analy-                                   Development Bank of India and Industrial
sis indicates that an increase of debt tenor by seven                                     Finance Corporation of India, which had access
years would lead to a decrease of 6% in the LCOE of a                                     to cheap funds from the government and
generic solar power project. But long-term debt is not                                    the central bank, and from multilateral and
easily available in India for several reasons:                                            bilateral international agencies. They were
                                                                                          able to extend low-cost, long-term debt to
   • Asset-liability mismatch. Banks dominate6                                            infrastructure development companies during
     infrastructure financing in India as the corporate                                   1950-1990, and they were a major source of
     bond market is under-developed, but face                                             long-term funding. However, financial liberaliza-
     severe constraints in lending long-term debt                                         tion in 1991, aimed at deregulation of financial
     due to the short-term nature of the funds they                                       markets that resulted from the balance of
     raise. According to the Reserve Bank of India                                        payments crisis, reduced the role of DFIs as the
     (RBI) estimates, nearly 79% of 2009-10 bank
                                                                                     7 RBI again warns banks on asset-liability mismatch, Business Standard, Jan
6 According to the Planning Commission banks are estimated to contribute               28, 2011
  nearly 51% of the total debt finance requirement of the infrastructure sector      8 Asian Bond Markets Development and Regional Financial Corporation, The
  in India during the 11th plan period (2007-12)                                       21st Century Public Policy Institute, February 2011

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                                   10
November 2012                                      Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

     government stopped supporting their fund-                interest rates do not fall for some time. Thus, there
     raising activities. After the liberalization, DFIs       may be false expectations baked into the investment
     have had to compete with commercial banks                assumptions regarding renewable energy projects.
     to raise funds at market-determined rates. The           The fear would be that if these expectations change,
     financial market deregulation made the DFI               required ROEs would need to increase or equity might
     business model unviable and many were forced             become otherwise scarcer or more expensive.
     to convert themselves into commercial banks.
     Given that the corporate bond market has                 4.4 Debt is not strictly non-recourse
     remained shallow, the reduced role of DFIs has           One area of controversy is the extent to which project
     left a gap in infrastructure funding.                    finance exists for renewable energy in India. Project
  • One exception to this is the Indian Renewable             finance, or non-recourse finance, is where money is lent
    Development Agency (IREDA). IREDA, the                    or bonds are sold solely on the basis of the project’s
    investment arm of the Ministry of New and                 cash flows. Typically, the project is set up as a sepa-
    Renewable Energy (MNRE) is a government                   rate company and the loan is made to that company.
    agency that offers loans to renewable energy              Since the lender only has recourse to that project, if the
    projects at favorable rates compared to                   project company fails, the lender loses their investment.
    commercial lending. IREDA was established in              The project owner, meanwhile, loses only their invest-
    1987 with objective of developing and financing           ment in that specific project company. That is, there
    renewable energy projects. IREDA has deployed             is no recourse to the parent company of the project
    over a billion U.S. dollars and has further com-          developer. Developers often prefer this type of financ-
    mitments from the Asian Development Bank                  ing because it is less risky to their company and they
    (ADB), Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW),              can leverage the balance sheet of the parent company
    and development banks from Japan and France               more aggressively. Developers typically pay a signifi-
    for another billion dollars. However, the scale           cant premium for project debt over recourse debt at
    of IREDA is small compared to the challenge of            the parent company level, because the lower risk to the
    financing Indian renewable energy ambitions.              parent enables them to take on additional projects.

4.3 Fixed interest rate debt is rare                          We had extensive discussions with stakeholders on
                                                              whether project finance exists in India. One extreme
In India, loans commonly have variable, rather than           view is that pure project finance (i.e., non-recourse
fixed, interest rates, primarily due to the issues outlined   based financing) has not become popular in India.9 On
in section 3.2: short-term lending by the banks due to        the other hand, many equity as well as debt investors
asset-liability mismatch and the near-absence of bond         claim that, though not common in the past, it is becom-
markets. Long-term hedging instruments — term-swaps           ing more popular.10 IREDA’s lending practices support
and bonds — are typically unavailable due to imma-            the view that non-recourse lending is becoming more
ture financial markets and risks related to a growing         common. In 2007 only 6% of IREDA lending was non-
economy. Variable rate debt makes cash flows to equity        recourse, by 2011 this had grown to 55%.
holders, which include project cash flows minus the
interest payments to debt holders, less certain as they       Discussions with private-sector banks indicated that in
are subject to changing interest expenses.                    most cases some guarantees are required. 11 However,
                                                              these discussions also indicated that these guarantees
While outside India, equity investors would not invest        are mostly given by promoters — in particular, for wind
in a project with variable rate debt or, at least, would      projects — that may not have large balance-sheets.
expect a premium equity return, it is not clear that this     It looks like projects get approved only when there is
is the case in India. Interviews with developers and          a good promoter. Once loans are approved, they are
potential providers of fixed rate loans suggest that the      evaluated on their own strength with some further
demand in India for fixed rate loans is not high. Part of     discount for a better promoter. This is no different from
the reason may be a general expectation that interest         how project finance happens in the West and it is safe
rates in India will fall — presumably because they are
so high already — however, unlike in Brazil, forward
markets suggest that interest rates are far from certain      9 Discussion with Global Environment Fund (GEF)
to fall in the future. Indeed, long-term borrowing by         10 Discussion with Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC)
the Indian government might be enough to ensure that             Project Finance as well as L&T Infra
                                                              11 Discussions with ADB, ICICI Bank, Deutsche Bank (DB), IDFC, and L&T Infra

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                 11
November 2012                                     Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

to assume that project finance exists to some degree —                                           Electricity Boards (SEBs) who are the counter-
at least in practice — in India.                                                                 parties to many of the contracts that pay the
                                                                                                 renewable energy projects, will restrict lending
Since relationships play a stronger role in Indian banking                                       in those states. (Section 4.10)
than in Western banking, exercising a “non-recourse”
option could have a very strong impact on a company’s        4.6 Many banks do not lend, or limit
ability to borrow money in the future and, maybe, even
survive. However, again, this situation is not dissimilar
                                                             lending, to renewable energy projects
to that in the U.S. or Europe. Therefore, although we        Domestic banks restrict lending flows to renewable
believe that the Indian debt probably has more recourse      power projects which limits the availability of debt for
and, therefore, is less valuable than in the U.S., we have   renewable energy projects. Our analysis reveals that
not attempted to value this particular difference in         less than one third of public sector banks lend to renew-
Indian debt markets.                                         able energy projects. The situation is worse for private
                                                             sector banks where less than one fifth lend to renew-
4.5 Availability of debt                                     able projects (Table 2-1). Banks cite non-familiarity with
We heard conflicting accounts regarding the availability     the renewable energy sector as well as the perceived
of debt in India. In general, larger companies with good     riskiness as the major reason for not lending to renew-
relationships with banks have access to debt. Superior       able energy projects. Even among banks that lend to
projects also seem to have access. However, marginal         these projects, the amount is restricted due the reasons
projects with smaller, unconnected developers might          discussed below.
find it more difficult. Likewise, some foreign developers    Commercial banks in India cap investments in infra-
without existing relationships might find it difficult to    structure at 10-15% of their total domestic advances
raise debt in local markets.                                 based on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prudential
However, our conversations indicate that access to           lending norms. At present, the renewable energy sector
debt is becoming more difficult now and will very            is coupled with the power sector, which is governed
likely become even more difficult in the longer term for     by (implicit and self-enforced) sub-sector limits in
several reasons:                                             the range of 4.5-5.0%. During the last few years, due
                                                             to large capacity additions — primarily of coal based
  • Banks have sector limits to limit their exposure         power projects — commercial banks in India almost
    to any one market, sector, or technology.                reached their lending limits for the power sector (Figure
    As renewable deployment increases, more
    banks are nearing their sector exposure limits.
                                                                        Figure 4-2: Gross bank credit of scheduled commercial banks
    (Section 4.6)
  • Further, most banks in India include renewable                                               16%
    energy in their power, utility, or energy sector
                                                              Lending as a % of total advances

    limits. These sectors have heavy borrowing
                                                                                                 12%                                         Total
    demand, to the point that many banks may have
                                                                                                                                             infrastructure
    been near their limits even before lending to
                                                                                                                                             sector lending
    renewable energy could begin. (Section 4.6)                                                  8%
  • While many banks have sector limits, others
    will not lend to the renewable energy sector at
    all due to the novelty of the sector, immature                                               4%                                          Power sector
    technology, and uncertain regulation. (Section                                                                                           lending
    4.6)
                                                                                                 0%
  • Sourcing debt from foreign lenders is restricted                                                   2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010-
    by regulations that set caps on the amount of                                                      2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011
    money that can flow in as well as the pricing of
    that debt, which in some cases may be too low                       *2009-10 data is not available. Source: Reserve Bank of India. Data are provi-
    for international lenders. (Sections 4.7 and 4.8)                   sional and relate to select scheduled commercial banks which account for more
                                                                        than 95 per cent of bank credit of all scheduled commercial banks. Power sector
  • Finally, state-level issues, including the poor                     lending includes lending to generation, transmission, and distribution projects.
    financial condition of many of the State

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                            12
November 2012                                     Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

4-2), potentially leaving limited funds for renewable                            Figure 4-3: Sample of large wind power investors in
power projects.                                                                  India versus ECB ceiling, 2007-12
Conversations with banks and developers confirmed                                                Estimated project size
that they are worried not only about banks not lending
                                                                                             800 at which ECB amount          BWFPL
to renewable power due to power sector lending limits                                              ceilings could bind
but also about the (resulting) increased cost of debt. In                                    600
February 2011, Andhra Bank noted that “many banks are                                        400
close to exhausting their internal limits set for infra-
structure firms.” In April 2012, SBI Capital added that                                      200
there is a need to categorize the solar power sector as                                        0
a priority sector to increase funds available for solar
                                                                                                                                 CLP

                                                                   Installed capacity (MW)
power development. Further, Solarsis noted that “short-                                      600
age of debt capital in the country is adding 50-100 basis
points to the variable component of the interest rate.”                                      400
                                                                                             200
4.7 Limits on foreign lending - Capital
                                                                                               0
controls on foreign debt
Companies operating in the infrastructure sector —                                                                          MYTRAH
and hence the renewable energy sector — can obtain                                           600
long-term ECB loans of up to USD 500 million per year.                                       400
Infrastructure companies can raise an additional USD                                         200
250 million per year with government approval. Our
analysis shows that the limit on ECB may not be impact-                                        0
                                                                                                   2007 2008 2009 2010        2011     2012
ing renewable energy projects at the moment, but they
may bind in the future, and the ECB ceiling may become                           Note: Installed capacity is all projects combined (that attained
a barrier for renewable investments.                                             financial closure) undertaken by a company in a specific year.
                                                                                 BWFPL: Beta Wind Farms Pvt. Ltd. (a subsidiary of Orient Green
At the project level, assuming a typical debt-equity                             Power Company Ltd.). CLP: CLP Power India Ltd. (a subsidiary of
ratio of 70:30, Indian wind and solar renewable projects                         CLP Holdings). Mytrah: Mytrah Energy Ltd. Source: Bloomberg
have reached only 55% and 63%, respectively, of the                              New Energy Finance.
USD 500 million ECB limit.12 The largest wind project
in India so far (until March 2012) has been 300MW. At
an average cost of USD 1.3 million per MW, a 550MW           4.8 Limits on foreign lending - Interest rate
wind project would surpass the ECB limit. Similarly, the     ceilings
largest solar PV power project in India so far has been
125MW. At an average cost of USD 3.6 million per MW,         The flow of foreign funds may be constrained due to
a project size of approximately 200MW would exceed           interest rate ceilings imposed by the government of
the ECB limit.                                               India on foreign loans. The ECB interest rate (all-in-cost
                                                             ceiling) is capped at six-month LIBOR + 300 bps13 for
However, the situation is different at the holding           three to five year loans and six-month LIBOR + 500bps
company level. In at least one case — Beta Wind Farms        for loans longer than five years. Our analysis indicates
in 2010 — the financing requirement could have hit the       the ceiling for typical renewable project loans to be
ECB limit if the company had tried to obtain cheaper         approximately 11.8% (Figure 4-4). For many investors,
foreign debt (Figure 4-3). Similarly, in 2011, Mytrah        these conditions may be so stringent as to make invest-
Energy got very close to the ECB limit. To the best of our   ing in Indian renewable energy unattractive.
knowledge, neither of these companies has attempted
to obtain foreign loans yet.                                 Against this effective 11.8% limit for the interest rate
                                                             that could be charged by foreign lenders, we compare
                                                             the cost of the foreign investor making that loan (in
                                                             the second column of figure 4-4). To the current Libor

                                                             13 LIBOR – the London Inter Bank Offer Rate – is used as a benchmark rate to
12 Bloomberg New Energy Finance                                 which a cap of 300 bps or basis points (or 3%) is added

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                        13
November 2012                                               Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge

         Figure 4-4: Estimated cost of debt for Indian renewable energy projects, 2012

         15%
                         FOREIGN DEBT                                                      INDIAN DEBT
                                                                                                                                      15%

                                                                                                                    Term swap
                                                Term swap
         10%    Interest rate                                                                       Project                           10%
                  ceiling on                                                                       premium
                                                  Project
                foreign debt                     premium
                                Withholding
                                    tax
          5%                                                                                       India Risk                         5%
                                 Currency                                                          Free Rate
                                  Swap

                                 6 month
         0%                       LIBOR                                                                                               0%
                 Allowed rate                 Project debt cost                Variable rate                       Comparable
                                                                                                                    fixed rate

interest rate, the lender would need to add 5.5% for                  hedging costs,14 as well as the interest rate ceiling. The
a currency swap from Dollars to Rupees over the life                  availability of foreign loans is further limited by interna-
of the project, and 2% for a term swap, to convert the                tional lenders requiring a company (or project) rating
short-term Libor loan to a longer term (in this case, a               equivalent to India’s sovereign rating (BBB), in addition
10-year) loan. A typical project premium for an India                 to requiring credit guarantees from the holding compa-
lender in India is 3.3%. Adding the impact of withhold-               nies. Higher international funding transaction costs also
ing tax, the foreign lender would need 12.1% to make the              make it difficult for small project developers to opt for
loan attractive. The Indian lender could make the same                foreign loans.15, 16
loan at 11.6%, but offering a variable rather than fixed
rate, or approximately 13.6% if it could offer a fixed rate           4.9 Technology risks
loan.                                                                 The availability of finance depends on the technol-
These numbers are central estimates, and there is                     ogy. Wind is typically easily funded, given its track
some range, particularly around project premium. Thus,                record and increasing competitiveness — multiple large
some foreign debt has been able to enter below the cap.               projects are getting financed, and project financing
However, we will note that given the Indian markets                   is becoming more prevalent after the introduction of
current low value placed on fixed debt, the foreign                   generation-based incentives.
lending cannot compete with the variable rate debt of                 On the other hand, solar is still new, so many banks are
local borrowing.                                                      cautious, and many banks are adopting an invest-a-little
The limits could increase the cost of renewable energy                and then wait-and-see strategy. As a result, projects
projects if the ceilings restrict foreign loans even when             financed solely by equity are more common in the solar
these loans are less expensive than available domestic                PV space. The question that arises is whether solar PV
fixed rate loans.                                                     will mature fast enough such that banks will lend to
                                                                      the projects before developers exhaust their patience,
According to project developers and banks, the impact                 strategic intent, and financial reserves.
is real: a typical foreign loan may cost approximately 2%
                                                                      14 Doors wide open for external commercial borrowings, Business Standard,
less than an equivalent domestic loan, and loans pro-                    March 17, 2012
vided by banks, such as U.S. EXIM bank and Overseas                   15 Discussion with Acciona, a wind power developer.
Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) could be even                   16 Further, at present Indian companies are reluctant to go for fixed rate foreign
cheaper. However, not many renewable projects in                         loan due to expectations of a fall in domestic interest rates as the bench-
India are being financed by foreign loans due to high                    mark interest rate is currently at a high level last seen in 2000-01 (Source:
                                                                         tradingeconomics.com).

A CPI Report                                                                                                                                         14
You can also read