Megatrends affecting science, technology and innovation - OECD
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Megatrends affecting science, technology and innovation
Demography
From 7.4 billion in 2015, the global population will reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 20501
5 267
738
433 707
4 393
358
2 478
1 186
784
Africa’s
634 By 2050, population will more 57
over a quarter than double by 2050 and 39
of the world account for more than
will live in half the global population
2050 Africa increase
2015
Regional % change, 2015-501
Population (million)
Africa +109%
Oceania +46%
Latin America +23%
North America +21%
Global parity between seniors and children1
Asia +20%
-4% Europe 2015 2050
Young Africa 21% 21%
ds 60
% of population living in Africa1 Median age in the world and ol +
in Africa1 yr
5
26% -1
12%
20 36 25 Working age
30 population
16% 26%
2015 2050 2015 2050
62% 58%
2
Flow of highly skilled migrants to OECD, 2001-11
Gender ratios1
Intra-OECD
31 Middle East and North Africa
million Europe (non-OECD) and Central Asia
Latin America 40% 60%
Asia and Oceania The older population (80+)
Sub-Saharan Africa will be predominantly
+50% +75% +100% female in 2050.
2 OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016
Most populous countries1 Growing global population
2015 2050 • A larger global population, together
China India with increased educational attainment
OECD OECD and economic development, will likely
India China translate into more consumers,
United States United States innovators and researchers at a global
level.
Indonesia Nigeria
Brazil Indonesia • The demands and needs of the
centres of largest population growth,
Pakistan Pakistan e.g. in Africa, could increasingly shape
Billion Nigeria Brazil Billion innovation agendas. These areas will
also further develop localised research
2 1 0 0 1 2 and innovation capabilities.
• A greater focus on technology
Population and migration transfer to centres of largest
OECD, 1990-20603 population growth will likely be
needed to help them manage the
Million Population 15+ Population 15+ (excl. migration)
multiple development challenges they
1 200 face.
Ageing societies
• Ageing societies could see slower
economic growth and resources
1 000
diverted to social and health spending.
This could draw resources away from
STI spending.
• Ageing implies changes in lifestyle
800 and consumption patterns, which will
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 influence the types of products and
services in demand and the direction
Migrant workers will be an important factor of innovation.
to mitigate the effects of ageing in most OECD countries. • Ageing-related illnesses, including
cancer and dementia, will increasingly
dominate health research agendas.
• New technologies, e.g. robotics and
Fewer births and longer life spans1
neurosciences, could help the elderly
Fertility rate Life expectancy live longer, healthier and more
(Children per woman) (years) autonomously.
3.0 80
Labour and international migration
2.5 75 • Fewer people of working age will
affect the labour market for STI skills
2.0 70 and could lead to an ageing research
workforce in OECD countries.
1.5 65 • The flow of highly skilled migrants
into OECD countries is likely to
60 intensify, further contributing to the
1.0
STI labour force.
2010-15 2025-30 2045-50
• Though much debated, new
technologies, e.g. robotics and artificial
The population in all major regions of the world is ageing. intelligence, could alleviate expected
labour shortages in the wider economy.
Sources: 1. UNDESA (2015a). The population refers to persons aged 15 and above. Iceland is excluded from OECD destinations when
comparisons between 2000-01 and 2010-11 are made.; 2. OECD (2015a); 3. Westmore, B. (2014).
OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016 3Natural resources and energy
Areas of floods, water stress, pollution and droughts today, and locations of megacities in 20301,2
Moscow
Paris
New York Beijing, Tianjin
Istanbul
Los Angeles Chongqing
Osaka Tokyo
Chengdu
Cairo Kolkata
Lahore
Delhi Shanghai
Dhaka
Mexico City
Guangzhou, Shenzhen
Karachi Bangkok
Ahmedabad
Hyderabad Manila
Mumbai
Bogota Bangalor
Madras Ho Chi Minh
Jakarta
Areas Lagos
Dar es Salaam
Lima Kinshasa
Floods/sea-level rise Rio de Janeiro Luanda
Water scarcity São Paulo
Johannesburg
Pollution
Buenos Aires By 60%
Soil degradation/ 2050, of the global
desertification up to 50%
yield lost
population will face
Megacities of in some water issues by 2050
10 million or more African
countries.
Growing tensions on water-food-land resources
2050
52% of agricultural
land is already affected
by moderate to severe
+60% food to
feed 9.7 billion
degradation3.
people by 20504.
2015
GLOBAL
+55% water demand by 20505. DEMAND
km3
6 000
Electricity generation +37% increase in global energy
Manufacturing demand by 20406.
World
5 000 Domestic use (Mtoe)
Agriculture L D
4 000 17 000 WOR
BRIICS
3 000 15 000
Economic growth in OECD
12 000 NON-
2 000 non-OECD will drive
OECD
further increases in 9 000
1 000
global energy 6 000 OECD
0
2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 consumption. Asia will 3 000
account for around 60%
of the total increase6. 2013 2020 2030 2040
4 OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016Agricultural production outlook in 20257 The promise of innovation
• New STI knowledge could improve
the monitoring, management and
productivity of natural resources and,
ultimately, decouple economic growth
from their depletion.
• Technology diffusion efforts will be as
+10%/14% +16% +23% +17% +22% +15% important as developing new
Cereals Meat Dairy Fish Sugar Ethanol technologies and should promote wide
products adoption of best available technologies
for efficient resource use.
Price increases for most agricultural commodities will likely affect
the poorest populations the most. Agriculture, food and water
• In agriculture, as in other sectors,
innovation is the main driver of
Aquaculture driving the expansion of global fish supply7
productivity growth. New innovative
(Mt) agricultural technologies and methods
100 Capture could help increase land productivity
in a more sustainable way.
80
• New technologies will play a central
60 role in adapting agricultural practices
ulture
40 Aquac to climate change and more extreme
weather-related conditions.
20
• Improvements in irrigation
0 technologies and new agricultural
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2024 practices should help better monitor
water use and slow groundwater
South and East Asian countries will continue dominating overall depletion.
aquaculture production, with China, India, Indonesia and Viet Nam
• A new generation of wastewater
accounting for the majority of projected growth.
treatment plants using advanced
technologies will be needed to deal
New markets for renewables with the challenge of micro-pollutants
Energy supply mix (% of electricity generation)8 from medicines, cosmetics, etc.
2013 2040
Energy
Solar PV 4%
• Onshore wind and solar
Bioenergy 4% EWABLES photovoltaics are ready to be
REN Other 1.5%
mainstreamed, but high levels of
EWABLES 33.5%
REN deployment will require further
22% innovation in energy storage and smart
R
grid infrastructure to increase their
A
Wind
Hydro
LE
9% adaptability to weather variability.
NUCLEAR
NUC
15%
• The Internet of Things and advanced
12% energy storage technologies offer
Coal 30% opportunities to better monitor and
Gas 23% manage energy systems. Cities could
play a leading role in deploying these
smart innovative approaches.
F O S SIL
IL Oil 1.5%
F O SS
Sources: 1. FAO (United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization) (2015). By 2050, up to 50% yield lost in some African countries if no
significant improvement is achieved in production practices.; 2. UNDESA (2015b); 3. UNCCD (2014); 4. FAO (2012); 5. OECD (2012a); 6. IEA
(2015a); 7. OECD/FAO (2016b). Cereals include wheat (10%), rice (13%), and maize (14%).; 8. IEA (2015a).
OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016 5Climate change and environment
Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita, 2030
CO2 emissions account for 75% of global GHG emissions, with most coming from energy production1
Russia
US EU 12.0
10.9 4.7 Caspian
6.0
China
World 7.1
3.0 Middle East
Mexico 3.4 8.2 2.1 Japan
Korea 7.3
0.9
India 9.4
Africa 2.7
2.5 Southeast Asia
Latin America
+50%
GHG emissions by 2050,
mostly driven by energy demand
1 tonne of CO2 and economic growth in key emerging economies.
Global emissions and the 2°C target2 40%-70% reductions
in global GHG emissions by 2050 to Terrestrial biodiversity loss4
Emissions Global
meet the 2°C Scenario3.
(GtCO2e/yr) warming (%)
100 +6°C 75 Aus
80
ine
+5°C 10% 70
tralia/N
North Am
e w Zealand
el Biodiversity loss by 2050, with eric a
60
Bas +4°C
highest losses in Asia, Europe 65 World
Brazil
+3°C and southern Africa4.
2°C 60
40 +2°C China
Indon
20
0
+1°C
+/-0
60%
of the world’s biocapacity is held by only
55
50
esia
ten countries that suffer most from 2010 2020 2030
2010 2030 2050
heavy land and forest degradation5.
OECD biodiversity is at threat
% of threatened species5
19% 13%
Mammals 20% 25% Vascular plants
39% 33%
Birds Marine fish
Reptiles Amphibians
6 OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016Key technologies to reduce power sector CO2 emissions6
International co-ordination
• The global nature of climate change
(GtCO2)
Electricity savings 25%
and environmental degradation will
25
Fuel switching and require greater international
Efficiency gains
20 efficiency 2% co-operation on solutions, including
Carbon capture and research and innovation.
15 storage 14%
• Climate change mitigation and
Nuclear 15% adaptation will depend on technology
10
Other 2% transfer to less advanced countries,
5 Wind 15% which are set to account for the largest
Renewables and nuclear Solar 14% increases in GHG emissions over the
0 Hydro 6% next few decades due to their rapid
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 7% development.
Research strategies
7
Space junk: danger of collision Exploding sales of hybrid vehicles • Energy technology innovation will be
Total vehicle sales in %8 key in achieving the 2 °C scenario. A
Number comprehensive portfolio of low-carbon
of objects
technologies, including solutions for
(thousand)
50% decarbonisation, will be needed to
16 achieve policy climate goals.
• Challenges of climate change and
12
ongoing degradation of the natural
it
orb environment, including loss of
8 in biodiversity, could become even more
cts
1%
dominant themes in future national
e
Debris
bj
4 o research agendas.
t al 2014 2040
To • The “circular economy” concept will
0 Hybrid cars are expected to likely gain momentum and shape
1956 1980 2010 become cost-competitive by 2025. future innovation agendas. New
technologies, processes, services and
business models will be fundamental
Waste disposal: ever more efforts to reduce landfilling9 requirements for a circular economy.
Material recovery (recycling + composting)
Incineration with energy recovery Multi-actor perspective
Incineration without energy recovery
Landfill
• While governments are expected to
(%)
play a leading role in enabling the
100 transition to low carbon societies, the
90 private sector will need to lead
80 innovation efforts in this direction.
70
60
• The Internet of Things, smart apps
50 and sensors will enable a closer
40 monitoring of climate change,
30 ecosystems and biodiversity.
20 • Participatory monitoring and big data
10 will generate large amounts of novel
0 data that could support new research
DEU
CHE
BEL
JAP
NDL
SWE
DEN
NOR
AUS
KOR
LUX
FIN
FRA
GBR
SVN
ITA
IRL
ISL
PRT
USA
CZE
AUS
ESP
POL
HUN
EST
SVK
CAN
GRC
ISR
MEX
TUR
CHL
practices and citizen science in
support of more sustainable growth.
Over the past two decades, OECD countries
have put significant efforts into curbing municipal waste generation.
Sources: 1. IEA (2015b). Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita by selected region in the INDC Scenario and world average in the
450 Scenario. ; 2. UNEP (2015); 3. UNEP (2014); 4. OECD (2012a). Terrestrial mean species abundance (terrestrial MSA) is a relative indicator
describing changes of biodiversity with reference to the original state of the intact or pristine ecosystem (i.e. a completely intact ecosystem
has a MSA of 100%).; 5. OECD (2016c). OECD figures are simple average of available country shares. However simple average does not reflect
cross-country differences, and some species are more threatened in some countries than in others. Species assessed as Critically
Endangered (CR), Endangered (EN), or Vulnerable (VU) are referred to as “threatened” species. Reporting the proportion of threatened
species on The IUCN Red List is complicated by the fact that not all species groups have been fully evaluated, and also by the fact that some
species have so little information available that they can only be assessed as Data Deficient (DD).; 6. OECD and IEA (2015). The 2°C Scenario
(2DS) is the main focus of Energy Technology Perspectives. It limits the total remaining cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions between
2015 and 2100 to 1 000 GtCO2.; 7. NASA (29 September 2016); 8. ExxonMobil (2016); 9. OECD (2015d), OECD (2014d), OECD (2014e).
OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016 7Globalisation
Fragmented production across global value chains
Percentage share of foreign value added in gross exports1
33
23 Denmark
United Kingdom 32 35
23 Poland 14
Canada 44 49 Finland 44
Russia
Ireland 25 Hungary Chinese
France Taipei
15 26 15
United States Turkey Japan
27 47 32
Spain 26 Slovak China
32 Germany Republic 39
26 42
Mexico 45 Italy Thailand
24 Korea
Czech
Republic India
36 42
11
Viet Nam Singapore
Brazil
20
Chile Goods and 14
19 41 Australia
services exports are
South Africa Malaysia
increasingly made
1995 of inputs from
around the world.
2011
Regional trade agreements3
Gross exports2 (Number of RTAs)
2012 2060 120 uth
Within -So
outh
non-OECD 90 S
33% 60 ut h
th -S o
15% r
30 No
25%
42% N orth-N orth
47% Within 0
38% OECD 1990 2000 2010 2014
OECD with
non-OECD Multinationals from emerging economies are becoming key global players
Foreign direct investment, % of top 500 firms earning more than
outward flows5 USD 1 billion annually6
Non-governmental organisations
Number of NGOs active (Index 1995=100) Emerging markets Developed regions
in international policymaking4 2 500 Non-OECD 5% 17% 46%
2 000 85 229
1 500
+10 000%
1 000
500
OECD 476 415 271
41 Ca. 4 200 0
1945 2015 1995 2001 2007 2013 2000 2010 2025
8 OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016Crime is increasingly globalised Tax evasion has turned global International R&D co-operation
Value of illicit international trade Tax revenue losses
(estimates, USD billion, 2015)7 (estimates, USD billion, 2015)8 • Globalisation will continue to
facilitate the wide diffusion of
knowledge, technologies and new
business practices and will itself be
s
an n C deepened by this diffusion.
b
15 m
ou
• National STI policy could be framed
Hu
0
nte
increasingly in global terms, reflecting
USD 100-240 billion could be lost
rfeit 460
FA the global nature of many problems
annually due to tax avoidance…
KE and issues, and the globalisation of
Drug
markets and production.
bn
• International agreements and
s
20
3
bn initiatives, such as the Paris Agreement
on climate change (COP21) and the
UN’s Sustainable Development Goals,
Illicit trade is a … This is 4% to 10% of global will further international co-operation
multi-billion-dollar business. corporate income tax revenues. in research and direct it towards global
grand challenges.
Individuals participating in globalisation today9 Business R&D
• Business R&D and innovation are
361M cross-border
e-commerce shoppers increasingly global.
44M cross-border • As important agents of globalisation,
online workers multinational enterprises could
internationalise their R&D at a faster
5M students 429M 914M social pace and on a larger scale than before.
studying abroad interna- networking
tional users with at • Global value chains could further
travelers least one
13M cross-border encourage national industrial
online students foreign
connection specialisation and an increasing
240M people living concentration of innovation capacities.
outside home country
• Standards play a crucial role in
innovation and are increasingly
By 2020, some 940 million (M) online shoppers are expected to spend
internationalised since, in a globalised
almost USD 1 trillion on cross-border e-commerce transactions.
economy, compatibility and interface
across borders are ever more
Internet users, 2016-2510
important.
2016 2025
Human mobility
• International mobility of highly
educated individuals at different
stages of their professional careers is a
significant driver of knowledge
circulation worldwide.
• Countries and institutions are
engaged in a global competition for
talent to build their own centres of
Internet users global scientific excellence.
(3.42 billion) Internet users • Digital technologies increasingly help
(4.7 billion) ease the strains of mobility, enabling
English is the lingua franca of the globalised world with 1 in 4 people individuals to maintain regular contact
using it globally. Non-native speakers account for more than 80% of with friends and families for example.
English online communications11.
Sources: 1. OECD and WTO (2016); 2. Johansson and Olaberría (2014a); 3. WTO (2013); 4. UN ECOSOC (2016). Figures are cumulative. The
cut-off date for these data is 8 January 2015.; 5. OECD (2015f); 6. McKinsey & Company (2016); 7. OECD (2016d); 8. OECD and G20 (2016).
BEPS refers to tax avoidance strategies that exploit gaps and mismatches in tax rules to artificially shift profits to low or no-tax locations.
Under the inclusive framework, over 100 countries and jurisdictions are collaborating to implement the BEPS measures and tackle BEPS.;
9. Facebook, AliResearch, US Department of Commerce, OECD, World Bank, MGI (2016); 10. Burt, D. (2014); 11. Sharifian, F. (2013).
OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016 9Role of governments
Governments are heavily indebted
General government gross debt as a percentage of GDP1
88 112 71 82
Iceland United Finland Netherlands
128 Kingdom 66
92
Canada Ireland Poland 18
82 Russian
120 Germany Federation
103 France 240
United States 130 Japan
116 41
Spain Belgium China
37 40 35
Mexico Turkey Korea
156 181
150
Italy Greece 65
Portugal
India
25
65 Indonesia
Brazil
23 Defence spending by
Chile Asian states is 41
46 expected to grow Australia
South Africa strongly, signalling
a global shift in state power
2007
2014 (or latest year) Defence expenditure
2012 USD billion2
Public procurement is a powerful leverage tool 2012 2045 2012 2045
OECD, 20133
58 108
12% 37%
National/ 1. USA 682 1 335 5. GBR
federal
251 51 97
29% 6. FRA
Regional 2.CHN
63% 1 270
and local 46 87
7. JAP
117
3. IND 46 67
Public procurement 654 8. DEU
accounts for 12% of GDP... ... and 29% of public expenditure
113 35 63
4. RUS 295 9. BRA
OECD countries expenditures5
(%)
100 Public order safety US corporate tax revenues on the decline
90 Defence Effective tax rate on corporate profits4
80 Economic affairs (%)
70 General public services
50
Nominal US fede
ral
Other Effe rat
60 c t ive e
Education Eff r id to
40 e c tive a t pa
50 Health e US
rat an
40
e paid d for
Social protection to eign
30 US gove
30 Pensions are to grow from 9.5% go rnm
ve rnm e ents
20 of GDP in 2015 to 11.7% in nt
20
20506. Health and long-term
10
care are to grow from 6% of
0 GDP in 2010 to 14% in 2060 10
1998 2004 2010 2014 without policy action7. 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-13
10 OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016OECD countries are increasingly opting to regulate lobbying8 Relations with science and innovation
• Governments will continue to play an
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
essential role in guaranteeing scientific
1951 Germany 1989 Canada Chile autonomy and supporting fundamental
1946 United States 1983 Australia United Kingdom science.
2012 Italy
2012 Netherlands • Governments will likely become
2012 Austria increasingly proactive in promoting
Slovenia green innovation, using funding for
Mexico
R&D, tax incentives, innovative
2008 Israel
Only 40% of OECD citizens
trust their governments9.
2006 Hungary
2005 Poland
procurement, standards and
regulation.
• The shift to a more multipolar world
may increase security uncertainties
Largest corporates to rival governments? More people will live and possibly spark new arms races,
USD billion10 in fragile states11 which would likely influence
government spending on STI.
Country/company GDP/profits • Governments will continue to collect
Luxembourg 58 and increasingly make open large
Apple 54 amounts of data that are useful for
Uruguay 53 research and innovation.
Costa Rica 51
Croatia 1.4 billion
49 Government capacity
in 2015
Tanzania 45
ICBC 44 • While governments will remain the
Slovenia 43 1.9 billion largest investors in public R&D,
China Construction Bank 36 in 2030 mounting debt burdens, dwindling tax
Agricultural Bank of China 29 revenues and rising expenditures on
Latvia 27 pensions and healthcare could
compromise their capacity to fund STI
Bank of China
Berkshire Hathaway
27 2.6 billion activities at current levels.
24
JPMorgan Chase 24 in 2050 • Technological change will present
governments with new challenges to
Estonia 23
Wells Fargo 23 manage innovation rents, e.g. through
Surgutneftega competition policy, and workforce
20
Toyota Motor re-skilling, e.g. through education.
19
Cambodia 18 • Governments are themselves
Gilead Sciences 18 innovating, conducting experiments
Verizon Communications and relying increasingly on digital
18
technologies for policy formulation,
Novartis 18
delivery and evaluation.
Iceland 17
China Mobile 17
Alphabet 17 Non-state actors
Samsung Electronics 17
• Cities and regions will become
increasingly significant public funders
Rise of megacities: a challenge to nation states?12 of research and innovation.
• Governments will increasingly
partner with businesses, NGOs and
10 cities 28 cities 41 cities philanthropists to support STI, which
1990 2014 2030 will influence public research agendas.
Megacities may become the epicenter of social, economic and political
development, displacing national states in some instances.
Sources: 1. “General government gross debt”, in OECD (2015l); 2. ESPAS (2015); 3. OECD (2015l). “Other” includes environment protection,
housing etc.).; 4. Zucman, G. (2015); 5. OECD (2016e); 6. “Projections of public pension expenditure as a share of GDP from 2015 to 2050”,
in OECD (2014g); 7. de la Maisonneuve and Martins (2015); 8. OECD (2014h); 9. OECD (2015l); 10. Forbes (2016); World Bank national
accounts data; OECD National Accounts; 11. OECD (2015m); 12. UNDESA (2015b).
OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016 11Economy, jobs and productivity
The centre of gravity of the world economy is shifting southeast 23.7
Percentage of world GDP, 2005 USD: 2000, 2015 and 20301 19.6
27.6
20.9 Euro area 8.0
Russian
22.6 (15 countries)
20.2 Federation
14.9
12.2
United States
3.4 3.8 3.6 Japan
8.8
6.1
China 4.4
10.0
6.9 India
4.2
Brazil
By 2030,
emerging economies
3.3 3.2 2.9 are expected to
contribute 2/3 of global
2000 growth and will be the main
destinations of world trade.
2015
2030
Rise in annual supply of An explosion in the number
A slowdown in labour productivity growth industrial robots of things connected
2
Thousand4 Billion5
(%) GDP per hour worked, % annual change
7
1970-96 1996-2004 2004-14
6
5
4
3
2 2018 400 2050 >100
1
0
-1
A
SA
BR
C.
ut US
R
or A
U
P
N
Ce . EU
EU
FR
JA
KO
IT
.E
CA
c
G
U
So A
D
di
nt
h
2014 230 2020 30
N
Global economic growth will slow
% annual change3
(%) No
n-O 2002 70 2014 10
ECD
6
Sharing economy
World +2.4%
4 Global potential revenue, 2013-25 (USD billion)6
OECD $$$$$$
2
0
$$$$$$
$$$$
335
2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-50 2050-60 $$$$$$
$$$$
$$ $$$$$$
Global growth will be increasingly 26
driven by innovation and investment in skills. $$
$$
12 OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016What about wages? Future productivity
% of value added7
(%) • Given population ageing, future
60 income growth will be increasingly
Salaries driven by innovation and investment
50 in skills.
n cial firms) • Yet, declines in knowledge-based
40 s (fina
Profit capital accumulation, together with
30 ) “winner-take-all” business dynamics,
rms
20 a n ci al fi could slow the arrival of breakthrough
fin
s (n o n - innovations and their diffusion across
10 Profit economies.
• Asian economies are expected to
0
climb up the global value-added
1982 1992 2002 2012
ladder. These changes will be
accompanied and, in part, driven by big
investments in STI.
Growing precarity of employment
% employment growth, 2007-13, by type of employment8 Digital technologies
(%) One in ten • The growing maturity and
convergence of digital technologies are
jobs in the OECD area
20 likely to have far-reaching impacts on
could be automatable productivity and income distribution.
Non-standard workers over the next decade9.
• A digital platform economy is fast
10 emerging, creating greater opportunity
for entrants – including individuals,
Standard workers
outsider firms and entrepreneurs – to
0 succeed in new markets.
• Digital technologies will further
disrupt all sectors. For example, in
-10 financial services, Fintech promises to
1995-07 2007-13
disrupt the sector through
digitally-enabled P2P lending
More than half the jobs created since 1995 are non-standard, platforms, equity crowdfunding, online
i.e. part-time, temporary or self-employment arrangements. payment systems, cryptocurrencies
and blockchain.
Less manufacturing jobs More jobs in R&D-intensive industries Future jobs
% total employment10 % of manufacturing employment10
• Advances in machine learning and
(%) artificial intelligence are expected to
(%)
expand the capabilities of task
Chi
na
35
20 automation and could lead to a further
OEC
D 30 OECD hollowing out of employment and
15 wages. They will also likely create new
25 a jobs that, as yet, have not even been
in
Ch imagined.
10 20
• Digital platforms that mediate work
0 0 could lead to more “non-standard” jobs
1982 1992 2002 2012 1982 1992 2002 2012 and contribute to the rise of the
so-called “gig economy”.
The persistent decline in manufacturing employment
has affected some sectors more than others,
with relatively fewer jobs shed in R&D-intensive industries.
Sources: 1. OECD (2014i); 2. OECD (2016f); 3. OECD (2014j); 4. International Federation of Robotics (2015); 5. Gartner (2013); 6. OECD (2016g);
7. OECD (2016h); 8. Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn (2016); 9. OECD (2015r); 10. OECD (2015g). The loss of manufacturing jobs in the OECD area
has affected some industries more than others. Over the past 30 years or so, a steadily increasing share of OECD manufacturing
employment has come from R&D-intensive industries, rising from 30% to about 35%. In other words, relatively fewer jobs have been shed
in this group of industries (chemicals, machinery and transport equipment) compared to others (e.g. textiles, plastics and basic metals).
Changes in global production patterns have seen manufacturing in China become more orientated around R&D-intensive industries,
with the share of employment rising from 20% in the early 1980s to about 35% in recent years. However, a high presence of R&D-intensive
industries does not necessarily indicate high levels of R&D expenditure, as much R&D can be embodied in imported intermediate goods.
OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016 13Society
Despite some progress, the gender gap is still prominent
Average proportion of women in parliaments in different regions1
25%
Europe
18%
18% 19%
27%
Arab
states
7% 15%
19% 22%
Asia
Sub-Saharan
Americas Africa 13%
634 15% Largest gains
in the past decade have 11%
been registered in West
Pacific
Asia, North Africa,
Sub-Saharan Africa and
2015 the Americas
2005
Households are getting smaller More births outside marriage
Projected increase in the number of % of all births, OECD-27 average2
one-person households (early-mid-2000s to 2025-30)2
(% change)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 7.5% 40.5%
DEU JPN NDL AUT CHE USA NOR KOR AUS GBR NZL FRA 1970 2014
Communication habits by generation3
Silent generation Baby boomers Generation X Millennials Generation Z
(1995)
Aspirations Purchase of a Freedom and Security and
principal residence Job security Work-life balance flexibility stability
3D printers,
Symbolic product TV
nano-computing...
Attitude towards Disengaged Early adopters, PCs Computer literate Digital natives Dependent on
technology on the horizon digital technology
Communication Face-to-face, Social networks, Video calls on
Face-to-face telephone, email SMS, email instant messaging devices
channel
14 OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016More urbanised Social agendas and STI policy
% of the world population living in urban areas4
• Societal challenges, e.g. food security,
36% 50% 70% clean energy, climate action, etc., are
increasingly influencing STI policy
agendas. This in turn could lead
governments to use broader notions of
research impacts in their research
assessments.
Science and innovation in society
1970 2009 2050
• Digital technologies are transforming
Nearly 90% of urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. societies, altering the ways in which
people live, work and communicate.
More indebted More fragile Ubiquitous connectivity will support
Household debt-to-income ratios, G75 Youth unemployment rate7 more flexible working arrangements,
2000 2014 though with uncertain consequences
ZAF 51.6% for work-life balance.
USA GRC 48.5% • New technologies – such as ICTs,
JOB
GBR synthetic biology, additive
ESP 46.4%
JAP manufacturing, nano- and
ITA ITA 38.8% micro-satellites, and advanced energy
DEU PRT 31.5% storage – will empower individuals and
social collectives (e.g. NGOs) to conduct
FRA SVK 25.7% their own research and innovation
CAN activities.
BEL 25.1%
0 50 100 150 200 (%) FRA 24.5% • A more highly-educated citizenship
6
could become increasingly interested
More educated CRI 24.3% and engaged in the debates around the
The number of students FIN 22.0% direction of STI developments,
enrolled in higher education particularly with regards to associated
will double globally by +16% in OECD youth benefits, risks and values.
2025 to 260 million. unemployment since 2008.
Urbanisation and consumption
A growing middle class8 • A growing middle class and
Size of middle class Middle-class consumption breakdown increasing consumption in emerging
economies will increase demand for
Today 2030 100 % innovative consumer goods worldwide.
Other • In OECD countries and some
23
27% 60% countries emerging economies, urban areas will
40 37 become increasingly “smart”,
JAP 5 influencing the direction of innovation
2 in sectors such as housing and
5 transportation.
USA 37 18 IND
2 bn 5 bn 8 •By contrast, urban development in
many developing countries will
more
By 2030, it will 20 17 CHN present health challenges, including
than double. Asia 15 EU
34
4
the increasing risk of global
pandemics. These challenges could
9
will host 64% and account Member
26
have a significant influence on future
States
research agendas.
for over 40% of global 14
0%
middle-class consumption. 1965 2011 2030
Sources: 1. IPU (2016); 2. OECD (2016l). The periods over which changes are projected (early-mid-2000s to 2025-30) are as follows: Australia
(2006-26), Austria (2007-30), France (2005-30), Germany (2007-25), Japan (2005-30), Korea (2007-30), Netherlands (2009-30), New Zealand
(2006-31), Norway (2002-30), Switzerland (2005-30), United Kingdom (2006-31) and United States (2000-25).; 3. Le club des élus numériques
(2014); 4. OECD (2012a); 5. OECD and PBO (2016). OECD data for Japan is available only to 2013. The values shown for Japan correspond to 2000
and 2013.; 6. Goddard (2012); 7. OECD (2016h); 8. EEA (2016a). The 15 chosen EU countries are: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. No Chinese data for 1965.
OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016 15Health, inequality and well-being
Income inequality increased in most OECD and BRICS countries
Gini coefficients1
0.25 0.27
Denmark Sweden
0.26
0.32 0.34 0.42
Finland
Canada United Kingdom
0.29 Russian Federation
0.31 Germany
0.40 France 0.41 0.34
0.32
United States Turkey Japan
Italy 0.42
China
0.48
Mexico
0.34
India
0.53
Brazil The 10%
richest earn
nearly ten times 0.32
0.63 more than the 10% Australia
South Africa poorest
Mid-1980s 0.33
New Zealand
2013
The rich get richer The young are increasingly exposed to The wealth gap
and the poor poorer income poverty risk is even larger
Household incomes, OECD average2 Relative poverty rates, OECD average2 2012 or latest year2
(Index, 1995=1) (Poverty rate by age class) Top 10% income share
1.6 190 Top 10% wealth share
0s
1.5 170 NOR
-8
150
id
1.4 BEL
m
% 130 , SVK
1.3 10 rty LUX
p 110 ve
3
To o
01
1.2 10% P FIN
90
2
tt om
y,
er t AUT
1.1 Bo 70 Pov DEU
1.0 50 NLD
1985 1990 2000 2005 2010 -18 18-25 26-40 41-50 51-65 66-75 66-75 ESP
ITA
CAN
The prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is changing global disease burden FRA
Percentage of all deaths3 Leading causes of NCD deaths4 GRC
NCDs Injuries AUS
Cardiovascular diseases PRT
Communicable diseases and disorders
GBR
5 65% Cancer USA
9% 7% 10%
0 25 50 75 (%)
Respiratory diseases The 10% OECD richest earn
1990 2010 25% of total cash income
Diabetes 2030 and hold over 50% of
25%
2012
wealth in bank accounts
34 and assets.
% 0 5 10 15 20 25 (Million)
16 OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016Financial cost of dementia Prevalence of dementia Innovation and inequality
USD billion, 20135 Million inhabitants5 • Innovation will increase inequality as
World benefits predominantly accrue to
645 billion innovators and possibly their
customers. For all actors in society to
135 2050 benefit, innovations must diffuse.
• Furthermore, most new technologies
76 2030 require new sets of skills to use. This
Europe possibly contributes to unemployment
United States
213 billion 168-230 billion 44 2013 and inequality, and highlights the need
for skills training.
World • On the other hand, technologies can
directly promote social inclusion and
The global cost of dementia is By 2030, dementia cases will rise economic growth, e.g. digital
equivalent to the GDP of by +50% in high-income countries technologies have opened up access to
Switzerland. and +80% in lower income countries. education, financial services and other
knowledge-based services.
• New concepts such as social
Obesity on the rise6 innovation, frugal innovation, inclusive
Adult obesity, 2014 Child obesity, 2014 innovation and social
entrepreneurship are leading to new
innovative business models and can
41 million contribute to a more inclusive
approach to innovation.
39%
children under the age of 5
were overweight or obese
in 2014. Health innovation
Overweight • Much of the extension of life
13%
Obese
expectancy and improvements in
quality of life over the last century can
be attributed to the success of
biomedical research and innovation.
• Pharmaceutical research is entering a
Worldwide obesity has more than doubled since 1980. new era of open science and the use of
converging technologies to uncover the
genetic and biochemical
Economic impact of antimicrobial-resistance underpinnings of diseases.
GDP loss in OECD countries per year7 • Digital technologies will massively
increase the amounts of medical data
Current Current resistance Current resistance
resistance rates rates +40% rates + 100%
available and enhance the power of
(%) data analysis in the service of
2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 healthcare decision-making.
0.00
• New public and private R&D will be
-1.25
essential to deal with the threat of
-0.50 growing antimicrobial resistance.
• Patient groups are increasingly
-0.75
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 prominent in shaping research and
-1.00 innovation agendas. Furthermore,
Cumulative loss: Cumulative loss: Cumulative loss: “do-it-yourself” science groups and
USD 2.9 trillion USD 5.6 trillion USD 14.6 trillion maker communities are likely to be
increasingly visible in the healthcare
Today, 700 000 deaths per annum globally are
due to antimicrobial resistant micro-organisms.
field, enabled by low-cost advanced
technologies like synthetic biology and
additive manufacturing.
Sources: 1. PovcalNet (2016). Data are based on primary household survey data obtained from government statistical agencies and World
Bank country departments. The Gini coefficient is based on the comparison of cumulative proportions of the population against
cumulative proportions of income they receive, and it ranges between 0 in the case of perfect equality and 1 in the case of perfect
inequality. The poverty rate is the ratio of the number of people (in a given age group) whose income falls below the poverty line; taken
as half the median household income of the total population. However, two countries with the same poverty rates may differ in terms of
the relative income-level of the poor.; 2. OECD (2015r); OECD (2016m); 3. EEA (2016b). DALY refers to Disability Adjusted Life Years, defined
by WHO as “the sum of Years of potential life lost due to premature mortality and the years of productive life lost due to disability”.;
4. WTO (2015a); 5. OECD (2015t); 6. WTO (2015b). Data are Europe (2008), Ireland (2010), United Kingdom (2014), United States (2010), and
World (2010). There are considerable methodological differences between the studies summarised here, so this figure should be treated
as illustrative only. In general, estimates include indirect costs, such as the opportunity cost of informal care, but methodologies for
estimating these costs vary. All costs are in US dollars, inflated to 2013 in line with consumer prices, and so may not match the numerical
values stated in the source papers.; 7. Cecchini, Langer and Slawomirski (2015).
OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016 © OECD 2016 17Our future is uncertain, shaped by a multitude of powerful, complex and
interconnected forces, eventually altered by improbable, unpredictable and highly
disruptive events. Seen over a time horizon of say 10-20 years, some of the big
trends we see unfolding before us are in fact quite slow-moving. These are
megatrends – large-scale social, economic, political, environmental or technological
changes that are slow to form but which, once they have taken root, exercise a
profound and lasting influence on many if not most human activities, processes and
perceptions. Such relative stability in the trajectory of major forces of change allows
some elements of a likely medium-to-long term future to be envisioned, at least with
some degree of confidence.
The OECD STI Outlook 2016 covers those megatrends that are expected to have
strong impact on science, technology and innovation systems over the next 10 15
years. The megatrends covered are clustered into eight thematic areas as follows:
Demography, Natural resources and energy, Climate change and environment,
Globalisation, Role of government, Economy, jobs and productivity, Society, and
Health, inequality and well-being.
To access the PDF references, please consult the Science, Technology and
Innovation Outlook 2016 available at http://oe.cd/STIO16.
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