Monitoring and Predicting Irelands Weather and Climate - Making Ireland Weather and Climate Prepared - CMG Events
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Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
Monitoring and Predicting Irelands
Weather and Climate
Evelyn Cusack
Head of Forecasting
Met Éireann
Making Ireland Weather and Climate Prepared
• ensure the protection and safety of life and property by issuing public
weather forecasts and warnings
Met Éireann
Making Ireland Weather and Climate Prepared
• ensure the protection and safety of life and property by issuing public
weather forecasts and warnings
• Enhance support for impact-based decision making for weather events
Met Éireann
Making Ireland Weather and Climate Prepared
• ensure the protection and safety of life and property by issuing public
weather forecasts and warnings
• Enhance support for impact-based decision making for weather events
• Deliver a high quality national flood forecasting service
WMO Weather & Climate Observational Network 10,000 surface weather stations 1,000 upper-air stations 7,000 ships 100 moored and 1,000 drifting buoys hundreds of weather radars 3,000 specially equipped commercial aircraft 16 meteorological and 50 research satellites.
Observation Platforms
The Equations of the Atmosphere
ECMWF Global model MET Éireann HARMONIE model 9km resolution 2.5km resolution
The ECMWF’s Cray XC30 supercomputer can
perform up to 2 quadrillion calculations a second.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txlATLRgA9Q&
feature=player_embeddedHighest annual rainfall total: 3964.9mm at Ballaghbeama Gap, Co Kerry in 1960.
Meteosat
Cold air
Snow showers
Front….rain
Tropical air mass
Fog/drizzle/sunnySpring 2018 ‘The Beast from the East meets Storm Emma’
A Case of Mistaken Identity
28th October 2013
St Jude (Weather
Channel)
Christian (FU Berlin)
Allan (DMI)
Simone (SMHI)
Carmen (European
Windstorms Centre)Storm Naming Rules
West group:UK;
Ireland; Netherlands
South West group:
France;
Spain;
Portugal.Storm Naming Rules • Storm depression (large) • Based on Warnings in the Meteoalarm framework (AMBER/ORANGE or RED ……impact-based and/or thresholds) • NMS which first issues the warning names the Storm in consultation with other partners. • Names picked by NMS’s (public suggestions etc) • It keeps its name given by NHC Miami preceded by ex.
Storm Naming Rules • Storm depression (large) • Based on Warnings in the Meteoalarm framework (AMBER/ORANGE or RED ……impact-based and/or thresholds) • NMS which first issues the warning names the Storm in consultation with other partners. • Names picked by NMS’s (public suggestions etc) • It keeps its name given by NHC Miami preceded by ex.
Storm Naming Rules • Storm depression (large) • Based on Warnings in the Meteoalarm framework (AMBER/ORANGE or RED ……impact-based and/or thresholds) • NMS which first issues the warning names the Storm in consultation with other partners. • Names picked by NMS’s (public suggestions etc) • It keeps its name given by NHC Miami preceded by ex.
Storm Naming Rules • Storm depression (large) • Based on Warnings in the Meteoalarm framework (AMBER/ORANGE or RED ……impact-based and/or thresholds) • NMS which first issues the warning names the Storm in consultation with other partners. • Names picked by NMS’s (public suggestions etc) • It keeps its name given by NHC Miami preceded by ex.
Forecast track of Ophelia:
16th of October 2017
Deterministic Forecast Ensemble ForecastStorm Naming Reach, engagement and influence for warnings Authoritative Voice Single name Communication: ‘hashtag culture’ Collaboration with adjoining NMS’s Useful post-event for reference
Year 1: 2015-16
Task Team:
European Cooperation
on Storm Naming
N: Norway/Sweden/Denmark
W: Ireland/UK/Netherlands
SW: France/Spain/Portugal/(Belgium?)
SE: Cyprus/Greece/Israel …Tri-lateral
Italy/Croatia/Slovenia/Montenegro/North Macedonia
Central: Germany/Austria/Switzerland……..Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
MID-CENTURY (2041-2060) PROJECTIONS
EXTREME STORM TRACK
1976
to
2005
Mid-
century
RCP8.5
(No
lan, 33Meteoalarm
YELLOW: weather conditions that do not pose an immediate threat to the general population, but only to those exposed to risk by nature of their location and/or activity. ORANGE: weather conditions which have the capacity to impact significantly on people in the affected areas. All recipients in the affected areas should prepare themselves in an appropriate way for the anticipated conditions. RED: recipients should take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily; by staying indoors; or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions.
YELLOW: weather conditions that do not pose an immediate threat to the general population, but only to those exposed to risk by nature of their location and/or activity. ORANGE: weather conditions which have the capacity to impact significantly on people in the affected areas. All recipients in the affected areas should prepare themselves in an appropriate way for the anticipated conditions. RED: recipients should take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily; by staying indoors; or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions.
YELLOW: conditions that do not pose an immediate threat to the general population, but only to those exposed to risk by nature of their location and/or activity. ORANGE: weather conditions which have the capacity to impact significantly on people in the affected areas. All recipients in the affected areas should prepare themselves in an appropriate way for the anticipated conditions. RED: recipients should take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily; by staying indoors; or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions.
WIND (Gusts km/h): >130 110 90
STATUS YELLOW :
Weather Alert – RAIN (mm): >70 60 30
Be Aware
SNOW / ICE: > 8cm 3 30/20 >30 >27
Be Prepared
LOW TEMPS (C):STATUS YELLOW :
Weather Alert –
Snow Warning
Be Aware Accumulations below 250m AMSL:
STATUS ORANGE: YELLOW: 3cm or greater in 24 hrs.
Weather Warning –
Be Prepared ORANGE: 3cm or greater in 6 hrs / 6cm or
greater in 12 hrs / 10cm or greater in 24 hrs.
STATUS RED: RED: 8cm or greater in 6 hrs / 12cm or greater
Severe Weather in 12 hrs / 20cm or greater in 24 hrs.
Warning - Take ActionSTATUS YELLOW : Low Temperature Warning
Weather Alert –
YELLOW: Minima of minus 3C or minus 4C
Be Aware expected over a wide area. Maxima of plus 1C
or plus 2C expected.
STATUS ORANGE:
Weather Warning – ORANGE: Minima of minus 5C to minus10C
Be Prepared (or lower) expected over a wide area. Maxima
of 0C or minus 1C expected.
STATUS RED: RED: Circa minus10C or lower for three or
Severe Weather more consecutive nights.
Warning - Take ActionSTATUS YELLOW : High Temperature Warning
Weather Alert –
YELLOW: Maxima in excess of 27C expected
Be Aware
and minima in excess of 16C over a wide area
for at least 36 hours (>27/16/>27).
STATUS ORANGE:
Weather Warning – ORANGE: Maxima in excess of 30C and
Be Prepared minima in excess of 18C expected over a wide
area for at least a 48hr period (>30/18/>30/18).
STATUS RED:
RED: As Orange criterion, but persisting for
Severe Weather several more consecutive nights.
Warning - Take ActionMet Éireann’s goal is to enhance support for impact-based decision making. 1)Is there anything we can do for you? 2)Conference calls with the Duty Forecaster are possible. 3)Our forecasts can be tailored for ‘Transport’s specific needs.
Met Éireann’s goal is to enhance support for impact-based decision making. 1) Are there any bespoke products we can provide for you?
Met Éireann’s goal is to enhance support for impact-based decision making. 1) Are there any bespoke products we can provide for you? 2) Our forecasts can be tailored for your specific needs….. • Are the roads going to be icy? • Will there be aquaplaning/hail? • Will fog delay flights? Pile-ups on motorways? • Will gales/rough seas cancel ferry crossings? Coastal damage? • Will high temperatures ‘buckle’ train tracks? Snow/Leaves on tracks? • Heat stress on flora/fauna/drought?
Met Éireann’s goal is to enhance support for impact-based decision making. 1) Are there any bespoke products we can provide for you? 2) Our forecasts can be tailored for your specific needs….. • Are the roads going to be icy? • Will there be aquaplaning/hail? • Will fog delay flights? Pile-ups on motorways? • Will gales/rough seas cancel ferry crossings? Coastal damage? • Heavy rain/thunderstorms/flooding?
Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
IRELAND WINTER RAINFALL
48Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
MID-CENTURY (2041-2060) PROJECTIONS
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
Changes in rainfall patterns
will lead to an intensification
of the hydrological cycle
with increased instances of
high and low flow periods,
floods and droughts
(Murphy, Harrigan, Hall &
Wilby, 2013)
(Nolan, 2015)
49Making Ireland Weather and Climate Prepared NATIONAL FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING SERVICE
Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
CHALLENGES FOR COMMUNITIES
IN IRELAND
We must prepare for a changed climate.
▪ Extreme weather events will become
more frequent and severe
▪ Infrastructure in coastal and low lying
areas will become more vulnerable to
erosion and storms.
▪ Increase occurrence and intensity of
extreme precipitation events will
bring increased risk of flooding.
▪ Changes in temperature will provide
opportunities but also some risks.
51• NMS’s, as recognized in the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (1947), are a fundamental part of national infrastructure and play an important role in supporting vital functions of governments. • The NMS (National Met Service) is clearly designated as the ‘official’ weather, climate and flood warning service and as the ‘National Authority’ in warning situations, to avoid public confusion. • Met Éireann is the NMS for Ireland and issues warnings for the 26 counties.
• NMS’s, as recognized in the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (1947), are a fundamental part of national infrastructure and play an important role in supporting vital functions of governments. • The NMS (National Met Service) is clearly designated as the ‘official’ weather, climate and flood warning service and as the ‘National Authority’ in warning situations, to avoid public confusion. • Met Éireann is the NMS for Ireland and issues warnings for the 26 counties. • The Met Office is the NMS for the UK and as such issues weather warnings for Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England.
• NMS’s, as recognized in the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (1947), are a fundamental part of national infrastructure and play an important role in supporting vital functions of governments. • The NMS (National Met Service) is clearly designated as the ‘official’ weather, climate and flood warning service and as the ‘National Authority’ in warning situations, to avoid public confusion. • Met Éireann is the NMS for Ireland and issues warnings for the 26 counties. • The Met Office is the NMS for the UK and as such issues weather warnings for Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England. • The European MeteoAlarm system co-ordinates NMSs’ warnings across Europe. This Europe-wide system uses a common Red/Orange/Yellow colour-code. • Met Éireann is in the testing stage of a new warning display which will include all Irish Coastal Waters out to 30 Nautical Miles including around Northern Ireland as well as the Irish Sea. • As part of this development we are planning on using the MeteoAlarm system to deliver the UKMO warnings for Northern Ireland on the Ireland map on www.met.ie • This revised warning display is expected to be operational by summer 2019.
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Effect
Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
Could the warming be natural?
59Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
SUMMARY OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
Temperatures have
increased by 1°C
from pre-industrial Increased CO2 levels are
levels and are desertification / continuing to rise.
projected to shifting rainfall Now above
increase by a patterns. 400ppm.
further 1.5-4.5°C
by 2100.
Sea level rising at
~3 mm/year,
Increasing glacial
projected rise of 0.5
retreat, decreasing
to 1 m by 2100
Arctic sea ice.
depending on
scenario.
60Expansion of Coastal Warning scheme to allow for Red wind warning in coastal regions only (i.e. up to 10km inland). In line with our co-operating NMS’s in France, Spain, Portugal and UKMO, Storms are only being named when the Orange wind criteria are forecast over a wide area (counties) and not coastal regions (defined as approximately 10km inland). Localized gusts > 130km/h can be forecast/observed without a Red warning but must be included in the Orange warnings.
Expansion of Coastal Warning scheme to allow for Red wind warning in coastal regions only (i.e. up to 10km inland). In line with our co-operating NMS’s in France, Spain, Portugal and UKMO, Storms are only being named when the Orange wind criteria are forecast over a wide area (counties) and not coastal regions (defined as approximately 10km inland). Localized gusts > 130km/h can be forecast/observed without a Red warning but must be included in the Orange warnings.
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